WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (ARCA: ELD)

最新ニュース WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (ARCA:ELD)

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund

The Fund is an actively managed exchange traded fund (ETF) that seeks to achieve its investment objective through investment in bonds and other debt instruments (Local Debt) denominated in the local currencies of emerging market countries. Under normal circumstances, the Fund will invest at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus the amount of any borrowings for investment purposes, in Local Debt. For these purposes, Local Debt includes fixed income securities, such as bonds, notes or other debt obligations denominated in local currencies of emerging market countries, as well as certain derivatives and other instruments described herein.

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Emerging markets stocks aren&#39;t the only asset class offering exposure to developing economies getting drubbed this year. Bonds are, too. The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core Index, a widely followed gauge of dollar-denominated emerging markets debt, is lower by nearly 6 percent year-to-date.
Some exchange traded funds focusing on developing world bonds are sporting larger year-to-date losses, highlighting the need for investors to evaluate the various weighting methodologies for funds in this asset class.
<h3>What Happened</h3>
The WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>) is an actively managed fund. ELD turned eight years old in August, so the fund has seen its share of trying environments for emerging markets debt.
ELD&#39;s methodology is &ldquo;focused on continuous risk management and offers high income potential, diversification, and total return through combination of Emerging Market interest rates and currencies,&rdquo; <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/fixed-income/eld">according to WisdomTree</a>.
ELD&#39;s approximately 130 holdings are denominated in local currencies, many of which have tumbled this year as the U.S. dollar has rallied.
<h3>Why It&#39;s Important</h3>
At a time of dollar strength and related struggles for emerging markets bonds, ELD is changing how it goes about its business. That includes shifting geographic allocations.
&ldquo;Shifting geographic allocations along with variability in weights means that the characteristics of the asset class evolve frequently, particularly during <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#Volatility">volatile</a> markets,&rdquo; said WisdomTree <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2018-10-15/evolving-our-approach-to-emerging-markets-fixed-income">in a note out Monday</a>. &ldquo;In our view, incorporating fundamentals into our selection process provides a more intuitive approach than simply owning countries that have issued the most debt. Similarly, we are also able to maintain the flexibility to include EM countries like China, India and South Korea, which, despite their importance to global markets, receive no weight in the benchmark.&rdquo;
ELD&#39;s selection universe is comprised of the following markets: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea and Thailand.
Brazil and Mexico, Latin America&#39;s two largest economies; and Indonesia combine for roughly a third of the fund&#39;s weight.
<h3>What&#39;s Next</h3>
Since inception, ELD has been notably less volatile than some of the major emerging markets debt indexes. That is a point to consider for investors mulling emerging markets bonds in the current environment.
&ldquo;While there is no guarantee that this historic relationship will always hold, we believe our bias to fundamentals and new tiering structure could provide a more intuitive approach to EM fixed income going forward,&rdquo; said WisdomTree. &ldquo;With the vast majority of EM currencies off close to 10% year-to-date,4 now could be a good time for investors realizing losses in other EM debt strategies to consider reallocating to our fundamentally weighted approach.&rdquo;
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An Evolving Emerging Markets Bond ETF

Most fixed income assets have struggled in the new year. For example, the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agg#NYSE">AGG</a>), the largest bond exchange traded fund in the U.S., is lower by 2.7 percent.
Corporate bonds, both investment-grade and junk, are not offering much shelter from the storm. Perhaps surprisingly to some investors, emerging markets debt has been a source of bond market strength this year. The WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>), an actively managed fund, is higher by nearly 2.2 percent year-to-date.
ELD holds bonds denominated in local currencies. Its geographic selection universe includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea and Thailand.
<h3>
	Widespread Outperformance</h3>
Through late February, the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Yield to Maturity Index, a widely followed gauge of developing world debt, was outpacing two- and 10-year Treasuries, 10-year German bunds and a major junk bond index, among other fixed income assets. Diverging rate patterns could explain this scenario as well as ELD&#39;s impressive year-to-date showing.
&ldquo;This divergence in rate patterns has helped to play an integral role behind the different performance stories,&rdquo; WisdomTree said&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2018-03-07/emerging-market-local-debt-an-exception-to-the-rule">in a recent note</a>.
&ldquo;As the reader can clearly see in the accompanying chart, emerging market local debt is the only asset class that has thus far come in on the plus side of the ledger, year-to-date, posting a return of 4.2 percent (<a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#JP%20Morgan%20Government%20Bond%20Index%20–%20Emerging%20Markets%20(GBI-EM)%20Global%20Diversified">J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index &ndash; Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index</a>). This is in stark contrast to the negative performances seen throughout the developed sovereign debt markets.&rdquo;
ELD holds over 130 bonds and has an effective duration of 4.65 years. Nearly 76 percent of the fund&#39;s holdings are rated BBB or A.
<h3>
	A Different Approach</h3>
Most bond ETFs, regardless of geographic emphasis, are cap-weighted. ELD takes a different approach &mdash; one that can help reduce risk and potentially boost income.
&ldquo;By focusing on factors such as short-term external debt over international reserves, current account over <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#Gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP)">gross domestic product</a>&nbsp;and gross government debt over GDP, we are able to boost allocations to countries that are pursuing monetary and fiscal discipline, while reducing weightings to those that are overextended,&rdquo; WisdomTree said.&nbsp;
ELD allocates about 31 percent of its combined weight to Russia, Brazil and Indonesia.
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Where To Find Bond ETFs That Are Going Up

There are scores of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/01/8855892/best-sector-etfs-for-january-trying-to-get-healthy">seasonal trade ideas</a>, and investors do not have to limit the search for valid seasonal themes to U.S. assets.
Seasonality applies to emerging markets assets as well, including bonds. In fact, the seasonally strong period for emerging markets bonds has arrived, which could point to more near-term upside ahead for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>). Even with all the concerns regarding President Donald Trump&#39;s impact on emerging markets assets and the effects of higher U.S. interest rates on debt issued by developing economies, ELD is up 8.5 percent off its November lows.
<h3>Actively Managed ETF For A Seasonal Trade: ELD</h3>
The actively managed ELD, which turns seven later this year, holds bonds denominated in local currencies from Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea and Thailand.
&ldquo;EM performance within the February-through-April window is distinct from other three-month investment windows. EM local debt, <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#Corporate%20Bonds">corporate</a>, <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#EM%20USD%20Sovereigns">USD-based sovereigns</a> and equities all post their most consistent performance during the window. While other windows tend to be lifted by greater one-time gains, the gains during the early spring period tend to be consistent, and losses are less frequent and shallower in scope,&rdquo; according to a recent <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/2017-02-17/emerging-market-local-debt-a-seasonal-opportunity">WisdomTree note</a>.
Related Link: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/17/02/9057064/whos-the-boss-it-could-be-this-new-etf">Who's The Boss? It Could Be This New ETF</a>
While many market observers believe the Federal Reserve is on course to raise borrowing costs multiple times this year, the longer the Fed holds off on that, the better for ELD because a stronger dollar is likely to pinch emerging markets currencies.
<h3>Allocations</h3>
Russia and Brazil are ELD&#39;s two largest country allocations, a notable trait for a couple of reasons. First, Russia could see its investment-grade sovereign <a href="https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-outlook-on-Russias-Ba1-government-bond-rating-to--PR_361387">credit rating restored</a>. Second, Brazil is in a new monetary easing cycle. Those countries combine for 22.5 percent of ELD&#39;s weight.
<h3>Seasonality And Historical Performance</h3>
Returning to seasonality, historical data suggest now is a good time to own emerging markets bond denominated in local currencies.
&ldquo;Among the bond sectors, EM local debt shines brightest during this period, generating substantial excess returns versus EM corporate and EM USD sovereigns. Positive contribution from <a href="https://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/glossary#Foreign%20Exchange%20%28FOREX,%20FX%29">foreign exchange (FX)</a> is a significant piece of this excess return performance,&rdquo; said WisdomTree.
About 76 percent of ELD&#39;s holdings are rated BBB or A. The ETF has an effective duration of 4.76 years and a 30-day SEC yield of 5.78 percent.

An Interesting Seasonal Idea

Amid Brazil&#39;s descent to junk status, speculation Latin America&#39;s largest economy will be subject to more sovereign credit downgrades and talk that other emerging markets will <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/09/5834560/turkey-etf-could-be-next-to-be-stung-by-credit-downgrade">fall victim to </a>the same scenario, some exchange traded funds holding developing world debt have been relatively sturdy this year compared to their equity-based counterparts.

	However, not all emerging markets bond funds are created equal and with scores of economies in the developing world supposedly vulnerable to changes in U.S. interest rates, now is the time for investors considering these ETFs to be ultra-selective.

	The actively managed WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>) is one place to start for investors mulling emerging markets debt. Though active management&#39;s shortcomings, both with fixed income and equities are well-documented, ELD has some points in its favor.

	Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/09/5867637/a-new-spin-on-corporate-bond-etfs">A New Spin On Corporate Bond ETFs</a>

	Notably, the ETF features no exposure to Nigerian debt nor did ELD hold Nigerian bonds earlier this month when JPMorgan Chase said it would<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/09/5822900/nigeria-gets-a-bond-index-demotion"> remove Africa&#39;s largest economy</a> from its local-currency emerging market bond indexes. More than $200 billion tracks those benchmarks.

	&ldquo;Instead, ELD&rsquo;s approach focuses on <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Fiscal%20sustainability">fiscal sustainability</a> and <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#External%20vulnerability">external vulnerability</a> indicators in order to monitor <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Risk">risk</a>. Political risk and <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/glossary/#Economic%20solvency">economic solvency</a> are also considered. The process allocates weight according to three tiers, where the country exposures within each respective tier are equally weighted. The portfolio is rebalanced to targeted exposures on a quarterly basis, and the currency selection and universe definition are reassessed at scheduled intervals at least annually. The result? Troubled countries like Nigeria often don&rsquo;t make the cut,&rdquo; according to a new research note&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/emerging-market-debt-in-focus-on-nigeria-debt-exclusion/">from WisdomTree</a>.

	In the essence of fairness, it should be noted that ELD hit an all-time low Monday and the ETF has an almost 9.6 percent weight to now <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/09/5827281/things-are-getting-junky-for-brazil-etfs">junk-rated Brazil</a>.

	On the other side of the fairness spectrum, ELD allocates just over 7 percent of its weight to stable, highly-rated South Korean won-denominated bonds, a trait not featured by two of the widely followed JPMorgan emerging markets bond indexes. Additionally, ELD is underweight Indonesian, South African and Turkish bonds relative to those JPMorgan indexes. That is an important factor when considering those countries are seen as highly vulnerable to changes in U.S. interest rates and have been highlighted as the next in line to potentially draw the ire of ratings agencies.

	&ldquo;It is noticeable that South Korea is a middle-tier exposure, but has no representation within the Indexes shown. Similarly, China and India are third-tier exposures with no representation in the J.P. Morgan Indexes. This is an important point&mdash;ELD&rsquo;s active process is not tied to the actions taken by other Indexes,&rdquo; according to WisdomTree.

	Though India and China are not risk-free at the moment, their debt ratings are not at risk of downgrades. The two countries combine for nearly 7 percent of ELD&#39;s weight. Nearly three-quarters of ELD&#39;s holdings are rated AAA, A, BBB. The ETF has a 30-day SEC yield of 5.74 percent.

The Right Way To Embrace Emerging Market Bonds

This year has been another miserable one for emerging markets stocks, but some emerging markets bond exchange traded funds have been noticeably less worse. For example, the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pcy#NYSE">PCY</a>) is up more than 2 percent year-to-date while the rival iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emb#NYSE">EMB</a>) is lower by just 1.9 percent.

	However, with the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cew#NYSE">CEW</a>) down more than 10 percent, the story is different for emerging markets bond ETFs denominated in local currencies. The specter of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates coupled with speculation of additional credit downgrades throughout the developing world, a fate&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/08/5748142/the-fed-dictates-whats-next-for-these-emerging-market-bond-et">recently suffered by Brazil</a>, are among the issued plaguing local currency bond funds.

	Those reasons and others underscore why an ETF such as the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>) is off 14 percent this year. For investors willing to apply the &ldquo;be greedy when others are fearful&rdquo; methodology, ELD could actually be offering up opportunity right now.

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	WisdomTree Research Director Jeremy Schwartz recently chatted with Chia-Liang Lian, head of emerging markets debt at Western Asset Management, the firm that manages the actively managed ELD in conjunction with WisdomTree.

	&ldquo;Lian noted the Fed&rsquo;s decision has been supportive of risky assets in EM, with sovereign bonds and local rates remaining firm. Additionally, the Fed&rsquo;s dovish tilt lent short-term support to the broader EM assets. Looking into the future, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed&rsquo;s liftoff will likely continue to linger and drive EM price action, but that is only one of a variety of factors the Western team is using to evaluate emerging market opportunities and risks,&rdquo; said Schwartz <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/what-does-the-fed-delay-mean-for-emerging-markets/">in a note out</a>&nbsp;Wednesday.

	Though it allocates 9.5 percent of its weight to <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/09/5827281/things-are-getting-junky-for-brazil-etfs">newly junk-rated Brazil</a>, ELD&#39;s credit quality is high as a combined 54.5 percent of the ETF&#39;s holdings are rated AAA, AA or A. Another 30.1 percent are rated BBB, which is still investment-grade.

	This one way of looking at ratings challenges potentially faced by ELD constituent countries. When adding up Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Turkey, roughly a quarter of ELD&#39;s geographic could be vulnerable to a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/15/09/5834560/turkey-etf-could-be-next-to-be-stung-by-credit-downgrade">sovereign ratings downgrade</a>. The glass half-full view is that a much larger percentage of the ETF&#39;s weight is not at risk to a downgrade.

	With emerging currencies now pummeled to the point where traders can argue that most if not all of the bad news is priced in, an ETF such as ELD could be offering value.

	&ldquo;Lian believes that the most appealing segment of emerging market debt today&mdash;when evaluating EM sovereign debt in dollars, corporate debt or local currency sovereign market&mdash;is the local currency sovereign market,&rdquo; said Schwartz. &ldquo;He believes local currencies have become very attractive and potentially mark entry levels today, but he also reminded us to be thoughtful in navigating market cycles and that valuation are not the only consideration.&rdquo;

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WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund

iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund

PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign  Portfolio

Value In An Emerging Markets Bond ETF

Nigeria is Africa&#39;s largest economy, but liquidity issues are hampering the country&#39;s local currency-denominated debt, prompting JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. to remove the country from its local-currency emerging market bond indexes. More than $200 billion tracks those benchmarks.

	&quot;Nigeria will not be eligible for re-entry for at least 12 months from the date of exclusion, JPMorgan said. The country has a 1.5 percent weighting in the biggest GBI-EM index, which is tracked by $183.8 billion of funds, according to the bank,&quot; reports <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/jpmorgan-to-remove-nigeria-from-emerging-market-bond-indexes">Bloomberg News</a>.

	The news, originally reported Tuesday, did not get pressure the Global X MSCI Nigeria ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/nge#NYSE">NGE</a>). NGE, the lone Nigeria ETF, participated in a rally that lifted stocks around the world, soaring nearly 3.8 percent. Still, the lone Nigeria ETF is off 5.7 percent year-to-date. NGE is one of just three country-specific ETFs tracking a nation that is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

	Nigerian equities bear the <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/08/5781305/kazakhstan-currency-devaluation-has-unexpected-etf-impact">frontier market designation</a> and the country is one of the largest weights in the iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fm#NYSE">FM</a>).

	JPMorgan&#39;s decision to boot Nigeria from its local-currency bond indexes, a move that will be complete next month, does not have widespread ETF impact. The iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emb#NYSE">EMB</a>), the largest emerging markets bond ETF, tracks a JPMorgan index, but the bonds held by the fund are dollar-denominated.

	However, the Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emlc#NYSE">EMLC</a>) does track the J.P. Morgan GBI-EMG Core Index (GBIEMCOR) and currently features a 3.1 percent allocation to naira-denominated debt, <a href="http://www.vaneck.com/funds/EMLC.aspx">according to issuer data</a>.

	EMLC has a 30-day SEC yield of 6.65 percent and is home to $1.2 billion in assets under management.

	Neither the actively managed WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>) nor the iShares Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/lemb#NYSE">LEMB</a>) hold naira-denominated bonds.

	The yield on Nigerian bonds reflects the risk associated with that debt. For example, the yield on Nigerian 10-year bonds jumped to 16.15 percent on September 7. That is more than quadruple the trailing 12-month dividend yield of 3.7 percent found on NGE.

Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF

EMLC

LEMB

Nigeria Gets A Bond Index Demotion

Emerging markets bond exchange traded funds funds have been decimated by a vicious circle. Global investors think the Federal Reserve will soon be raising interest rates, which has forced Treasury yields higher, dragging the U.S. dollar along for the ride. In turn, emerging currencies have tumbled and fears that some issuers in the developing world will not be able to adequately surface debt in the face of a strong dollar/weak local currency environment.

	Even some actively managed emerging markets bond funds have been unable to escape the dollar&#39;s wrath. For example, the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>) is off 10 percent this year. However, investors looking to grab some yield while bottom-fishing with local currency funds can do so while employing a professional-level hedge that is rather simple: A 50/50 split between an ETF like ELD and the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/usdu#NYSE">USDU</a>).

	&ldquo;In our view, a bullish dollar position against a broad-based basket of developed and emerging market currencies provides a powerful option for managing currency risk in a portfolio of emerging market assets. In the discussion below, we put this concept in practice by combining a bullish dollar strategy1 with an emerging market local debt strategy2. In our view, emerging markets provide some of the most compelling valuations around the world. Employing a bullish dollar strategy as a hedge for EM currency risk could be a cost-effective way to reduce volatility, particularly in advance of a shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) policy,&rdquo; said WisdomTree in a<a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/emerging-markets-fixed-income-the-u-s-dollar/">&nbsp;note out Monday</a>.

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	USDU, which is also actively managed, is up 6.3 percent this year, helping investors that have employed the aforementioned strategy cope with some of the losses incurred by the long ELD position. USDU is particularly useful as a hedge against long positions in emerging markets local currency bond funds because it is the only dollar ETF that measures the greenback&#39;s strength against developing world currencies.

	For example, Mexico, South Korea, China and Brazil combine for over 18 percent of USDU&#39;s weight. Those are positive traits at a time when the Mexican peso and Brazilian real are hovering near <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/07/5721218/peso-swoon-could-spell-opportunity-in-these-mexico-etfs">multi-year lows</a> against the dollar.

	&ldquo;In this blended approach to emerging markets, investors are able to maintain exposure to the emerging market assets while dampening the overall drawdowns and volatility of their investment. As we have seen so far in 2015, emerging markets can experience volatility on the upside as well as the downside. By combining legacy EM fixed income positions with a bullish dollar strategy, investors may be able to limit the impact of changes in global monetary policy,&rdquo; notes WisdomTree.

	Perhaps the biggest advantage of an idea such as long ELD/long USDU is the trade&#39;s ability to reduce correlations. Using USDU&#39;s underlying index and the JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index for the 50/50 split, WisdomTree data indicate a negative correlation of -0.81 with downside risk of 2.78 percent, or about 630 basis points below that of being long the bond index without the protective currency hedge.

Short Ideas

USDU

An Idea For Hedging Risk In Emerging Markets Bond ETFs

Equity-based emerging markets ETFs have languished through some rough performances in 2013, but their bond counterparts have tumbled mightily as well.

	That goes for both dollar-denominated and local currency developing world debt. Year-to-date, the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emb#NYSE">EMB</a>) is down eight percent, a loss that is nearly twice as bad as that of iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eem#NYSE">EEM</a>).

	"In the three months ending in July, local currency-denominated EM sovereign bonds fell 10.6%, U.S. dollar-denominated EM sovereign bonds declined 7.8%, and U.S. dollar-denominated EM corporate bonds dropped 5.8%., according to a <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/08/3839585/finally-some-hope-for-em-bond-etfs"> research note published last month by PIMCO</a>, the world's largest bond manager.

	The specter of a reduction of or outright end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing forced many emerging markets currencies lower and bond yields higher, damaging local currency bond ETFs in the process. However, there are signs the environment for those ETFs could be improving.

	Related: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/08/3839585/finally-some-hope-for-em-bond-etfs">Finally, Some Hope For EM Bond ETFs</a>.

	"The possibility of a decline in the pace of Fed bond buying was cited as the primary catalyst for currency weakness and surging bond yields in emerging markets. Economies that once benefited from foreign investor flows have underperformed since flows began to reverse," <a href="http://www.wisdomtree.com/blog/index.php/where-we-see-the-greatest-opportunities-in-emerging-market-fixed-income-part-ii/">said WisdomTree portfolio manager Rick Harper</a> in a new research note. "However, we believe that those moves had overshot. With the recent FOMC meeting serving as a catalyst, we believe that locally denominated fixed income appears as an attractive way to play a less ‘hawkish' Fed."

	A more sanguine tapering environment should be a boon for ETFs like the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>), the first actively manage ETF to cross the $1 billion in assets under management level. Underscoring the vulnerability of emerging markets local currency debt due to tapering talk, ELD has performed slightly worse than EMB this year, losing 8.5 percent.

	ELD offers exposure to Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, China, and South Korea. The ETF's allocations to some of the most beaten-up developing world currencies is high as Brazil, Turkey, Thailand and Indonesia combine for about 31 percent of ELD's weight.

	What is noteworthy about the taper-driven declines suffered by emerging markets debt is that many of those bonds wound up sporting higher yields than U.S. corporate junk.

	"With some emerging markets being upgraded as recently as May 2013, we believe that only a select few pose a risk of a credit rating downgrade. However, EM local debt was recently offering the largest yield advantage compared to U.S. high yield in history," said Harper.

	That yield spread might imply creditworthiness issues with emerging world issues, but ELD's lineup <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/07/3760311/em-bond-etfs-getting-better-sort-of">hows that problem is likely overstated</a>. Roughly 49 percent of the ETF's holdings are rated AAA, AA or A and another 25 percent are rated BBB.

	Of ELD's country holdings, only Brazil looks <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/06/3682440/worse-not-better-for-brazil-etfs">like a plausible candidate</a> for a ratings downgrade, but even that is something of a stretch and it is not likely the country would be slapped with a junk rating. At least not anytime soon.

	Perhaps worst case scenarios that will not come to pass have been priced into emerging markets debt, making ETFs like ELD attractive opportunities at current levels.

	"Ultimately, we believe EM local debt is attractively priced at current levels. However, there is always the possibility that market volatility may persist as the U.S. struggles to provide appropriate guidance on the future path of interest rates. At current yields, we believe that EM local debt provides an attractive level of carry that may help dampen future volatility associated with locally denominated fixed income," said Harper.

	For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

	Disclosure: Author does not own any of the securities mentioned here.

EM Local Debt ETFs Offer Opportunity

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Thursday, September 12, 2013.

Give the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) a look.

The Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/socl#NASDAQ">SOCL</a>) continues to impress.

Check in with the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vug#NYSE">VUG</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vnm#NYSE">VNM</a>), Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vwo#NYSE">VWO</a>) and the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vwo#NYSE">VWO</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

Sector ETFs

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

New ETFs

Pre-Market Outlook

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

SOCL

ETFs to Watch September 12, 2013 (ELD, SOCL, VUG)

Exchange traded funds holding emerging markets bonds, both the dollar-denominated and local currency varieties, were among 2012's most popular bond funds.

	A spate of interest rate reductions by developing world central banks and the Federal Reserve's own easing efforts helped bolster the fortunes of ETFs such as the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emb#NYSE">EMB</a>) and the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pcy#NYSE">PCY</a>).

	This year has brought a nasty, 180-degree reversal of fortune for developing world debt due to plunging currencies and fears about an end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, but for believers of "when there is blood in the streets"investing, emerging markets bond ETFs may hold some rebound potential.

	Related: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/07/3760311/em-bond-etfs-getting-better-sort-of">EM Bond ETFs Getting Better...Sort Of</a>.

	"In the three months ending in July, local currency-denominated EM sovereign bonds fell 10.6%, U.S. dollar-denominated EM sovereign bonds declined 7.8%, and U.S. dollar-denominated EM corporate bonds dropped 5.8%., according to a research note published by PIMCO, the world's largest bond manager.

	EMB and PCY, home to almost $6 billion in assets under management combined, are dollar-denominated ETFs. Well-known local currency emerging markets bond ETFs include the Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emlc#NYSE">EMLC</a>) and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>), the <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/04/3479116/fundamentals-could-lift-this-em-bond-etf">first actively managed ETF to reach $1 billion in assets.</a>

	Ramin Toloui, PIMCO's global co-head of emerging markets portfolio management, said history suggests emerging markets bond sell-offs can offer "attractive buying opportunities."

	"The past would suggest that periods of underperformance in EM ultimately could become buying opportunities. Over the past 10 years, quarters in which total returns were negative were followed by quarters of positive returns more than 70% of the time in local currency- and U.S. dollar-denominated EM bonds. This implies that in the past a certain amount of mean reversion has been the norm, in which selling during periods of stress overshoots and is followed by a bounce in prices after the stress subsides," <a href="http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/What-Role-for-Emerging-Markets-After-the-Sell-Off.aspx">said Toloui in the note.</a>

	Toloui notes that the emerging markets bond sell-off has forced yield curves to embed expectations of future interest rate increases. Central banks in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey have recently boosted rates to prop up sagging currencies and stem capital outflows.

	Citing HSBC data, PIMCO notes markets are expecting another 262 basis points in interest rate hikes out of Brazil, 178 basis points in increases from Indonesia and nearly 90 basis points to be tacked on to Turkey's lending rate. Those three countries combine for about 18 percent of EMB's weight. ELD, the local currency fund, allocates over 27 percent of its weight to those nations.

	The retrenchment in emerging markets bonds prices means yields have risen and although yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds reside around 2.7 percent, Toloui notes "a Brazilian 10-year government bond that (as of 13 August) yielded 11.43% in local currency terms would have locked in an annual yield differential of 871 basis points (bps) versus a 2.72% yielding 10-year U.S. Treasury, if held to maturity."

	Investors looking to take advantage of attractive valuations in emerging markets bonds should take a pass on fundamentally weak nations, such as those plagued by wide current account deficits and those that could see credit downgrades. India fits the bill on both fronts.

	Mexican bonds, an asset class <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/01/3267133/got-pesos-use-these-etfs-for-attractive-mexican-bonds">previously endorsed by PIMCO's Bill Gross</a> come with the benefit of a strong balance sheet.

	Mexican 10-years yield about 110 basis points more than the comparable U.S. bonds, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/">according to Bloomberg data</a>. ELD features a 10.5 percent weight Mexican peso bonds while EMB has a 6.3 percent weight to dollar-denominated Mexican bonds.

	For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

	Disclosure: Author owns none of the securities mentioned in this article.

Global

After-Hours Center

Finally, Some Hope For EM Bond ETFs

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Tuesday, August 13, 2013.

Keep an eye on the iShares MSCI Australia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewa#NYSE">EWA</a>).

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) will certainly be in play as will the ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agq#NYSE">AGQ</a>).

Give the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ung#NYSE">UNG</a>) a look.

Consider the Global X Social Media Index ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/socl#NYSE">SOCL</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/brf#NYSE">BRF</a>), iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewt#NYSE">EWT</a>) and the iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epu#NYSE">EPU</a>).

Forex play of the day: CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxa#NYSE">FXA</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

GDXJ

ETFs to Watch August 13, 2013 (EWT, GDXJ, SOCL)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Wednesday, August 7, 2013.

The ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/zsl#NYSE">ZSL</a>) should be in play.

Give the ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sqqq#NASDAQ">SQQQ</a>) a look.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) is one to watch.

Keep an eye on the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewi#NYSE">EWI</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 25 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxp#NYSE">FXP</a>), the Direxion Daily India Bull 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/indl#NYSE">INDL</a>) and the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vnm#NYSE">VNM</a>).

Forex play of the day: WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cew#NYSE">CEW</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

INDL

SQQQ

ETFs to Watch August 7, 2013 (FXP, GDX, ZSL)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Tuesday, July 30, 2013.

Give the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) a look.

Earnings play: Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xle#NYSE">XLE</a>).

The ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sds#NYSE">SDS</a>) is worth a trade.

The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ura#NYSE">URA</a>) is on fire.

Emerging markets plays of the day: ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eev#NYSE">EEV</a>), iShares MSCI Chile ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/msci#NYSE">MSCI</a>) and the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/idx#NYSE">IDX</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets

MSCI

ETFs to Watch July 30, 2013 (SDS, URA, XLE)

One of this year's most downtrodden and vilified asset classes is emerging markets bonds. High-yield or investment-grade. Dollar-denominated or local currency issues.

	It does not matter. Practically all of the ETFs that offer investors exposure to these bonds have been repudiated due to, among other factors, plunging currencies and fears about an end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program.

	Heading into the start of trading Wednesday, the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emb#NYSE">EMB</a>) was down 8.3 percent for the year while the Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/emlc#NYSE">EMLC</a>) was off 10.4 percent. Nearly $1.9 billion has been pulled from EMB, which tracks nearly 200 dollar-denominated holdings that are mostly rated investment-grade.

	Related: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/07/3757195/patience-required-with-emerging-markets-etfs">Patience Required With Emerging Markets ETFs</a>

	Things may be starting to change for those ETFs and others like them. Maybe, just maybe and yes, there should be emphasis on "maybe," but over the past month, some emerging markets bond ETFs have at least been less bad than some supposedly safer bond funds. For example, since June 17, EMB, EMLC and the WisdomTree Asia Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ald#NYSE">ALD</a>) are off an average of 2.7 percent. A loss is a loss, but all three of those ETFs have done better in the past 30 days than the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tlt#NYSE">TLT</a>).

	ALD has only been slightly worse over that time than the <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/04/3521316/some-newer-bond-etfs-flourish">more famous, supposedly less risky</a> PIMCO Total Return ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bond#NYSE">BOND</a>).

	Almost Positive Signs 
	There are some signs, perhaps faint, that all is not lost for emerging markets bond ETFs. For starters, a rising interest rate environment in the U.S. could boost the allure developing world debt. U.S. Treasurys are rate sensitive, but emerging markets sovereigns are credit sensitive because investors are concerned about repeats of such ominous events as the Asian financial crisis and Russian ruble collapse of the late 1990s.

	Actually, emerging markets bonds prove usually prove durable during periods of rising U.S. rates. The average return for these bonds in rising rate quarters dating back to 1993 is 2.33 percent, making developing world debt the third-best performing bond niche when U.S. rates rise <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/07/3756954/bond-etfs-to-cope-with-rising-interest-rates">behind only convertibles and U.S. corporate junk</a>, according to Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

	Clearly, no one in their right mind would say emerging markets bonds, currencies or equities have been good places to invest this year. The returns clearly state the opposite is true, but widening spreads for some of these debt ETFs relative to U.S. Treasurys imply dark views of issuer creditworthiness. EMB's trailing 12-month yield is now about 210 basis points north of 10-year Treasurys. The PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pcy#NYSE">PCY</a>), another dollar-denominated fund, is almost 240 basis points ahead of 10-year Treasurys.

	Only the WisdomTree Asia Local Debt Fund, which it should be noted is not an all emerging markets ETF, but one with <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/13/04/3490395/looking-for-good-credit-among-em-bond-etfs">sturdy credit quality</a> features a distribution yield that is not well above 10-years.

	These wide spreads are present despite the fact that at the end of 2012, the average fiscal deficit across the 
	emerging market space was less than 2%, with no region averaging a deficit worse than 3% of GDP, <a href="http://us.ishares.com/content/stream.jsp?url=/content/en_us/repository/resource/market_perspectives_apr_2013.pdf">according to iShares Global Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich</a>.

	Related: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/07/3735545/an-ambitious-emerging-markets-forecast">An Ambitious Emerging Markets Forecast</a>

	Supporters 
	There is no doubt emerging markets bond ETFs are beaten up. In a group comprised of EMB, EMLC, PCY and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>), ELD is the best year-to-date performer with a loss of 8.1 percent. That has not stopped some professional investors from recently taking nibbles at emerging markets bonds.

	Jeff Gundlach, CEO of investment manager DoubleLine, recently said he sees some opportunities <a href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/06/25/what-jeff-gundlach-is-buying-during-the-bond-market-selloff/">with dollar-denominated emerging debt</a>.

	Goldman Sachs Asset Management has been increasing holdings on short-dated, local-currency bonds sold by Brazil and 30-year, local-currency bonds sold by Mexico, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/07/11/goldman-sachs-likes-emerging-markets-bonds/">according to the Wall Street Journal</a>.

	Brazil has been on something of a scorched-earth, rate-rising campaign this year as a means of combating inflation, but Mexican debt has long been an emerging world favorite <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/01/3267133/got-pesos-use-these-etfs-for-attractive-mexican-bonds">among some noteworthy bond investors</a>. Investors looking to gain exposure to Brazilian and Mexican bonds via an ETF can consider the Market Vectors LatAm Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bono#NYSE">BONO</a>). BONO has a distribution yield of 4.51 percent and if Goldman's prediction that short-term Brazilian bonds have priced in the bulk of the central bank's rate-hiking agenda, the ETF could offer some upside in the back half of this year.

	For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Wall Street Journal

Treasuries

Events

Economics

BOND

BONO

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

EM Bond ETFs Getting Better...Sort of

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Thursday, July 11, 2013.

Obvious plays: SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>).

Try the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sil#NYSE">SIL</a>).

Give the Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xlb#NYSE">XLB</a>) a look.

Keep an eye on the PowerShares Buyback Achievers ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pkw#NYSE">PKW</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: PowerShares India ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/pin#NYSE">PIN</a>), iShares MSCI South Africa ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eza#NYSE">EZA</a>) and the iShares MSCI Chile ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ech#NYSE">ECH</a>).

Forex play of the day: PowerShares DB Dollar Bearish (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/udn#NYSE">UDN</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

ETFs to Watch July 11, 2013 (GLD, PKW, UDN)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Tuesday, June 18, 2013.

The U.S. Oil Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uso#NYSE">USO</a>) is starting to look good.

Give the First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fdn#NYSE">FDN</a>) a look.

Check in with the Vanguard Small Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vb#NYSE">VB</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Small-Cap Dividend ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgs#NYSE">DGS</a>), iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewz#NYSE">EWZ</a>) and the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rsx#NYSE">RSX</a>).

Forex play of the day: CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxc#NYSE">FXC</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

Wisdomtree Emerging Markets Smallcap Dividend Fund

First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund

Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust Shares of Beneficial Interest

ETFs to Watch June 18, 2013 (FDN, USO, VB)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Friday June 14, 2013.

	The Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kol#NYSE">KOL</a>) looks terrible.

	Keep an eye on the iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewj#NYSE">EWJ</a>).

	Let's see if the bounce in the iShares MSCI Pacific ex-Japan Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epp#NYSE">EPP</a>) is for real.

	Give the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xlk#NYSE">XLK</a>) a look.

	Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI Chile Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ech#NYSE">ECH</a>), Global X FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/asea#NYSE">ASEA</a>) and the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/idx#NYSE">IDX</a>).

	Forex play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Currency ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cew#NYSE">CEW</a>).

	Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

ASEA

ETFs to Watch June 14, 2013 (ELD, EPP, XLK)

WisdomTree Emerging Market Local Debt Fund

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