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The Trust holds gold bars and from time to time, issues Baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and distributes gold in connection with redemptions of Baskets. The investment objective of the Trust is for the Shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the Trusts expenses. The Sponsor believes that, for many investors, the Shares represent a cost-effective investment in gold.

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米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）のパウエル議長は6月の記者会見で、金曜日に発表されたレポートによると、市場の期待をわずかになだめる形で、物価が目標を下回るかどうかの「さらなる信頼を得たい」という考えを再度表明しました。

パウエル議長、市場の興奮を抑える「更なる信頼を得たい」

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2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。

消費者物価指数がFOMCで異例の報告

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-04_08h45_45.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Barn Burner Jobs Report</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-spy-mc-10042024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is rallying on the jobs report.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The just released jobs report is a barn burner. The report is a lot stronger than the consensus.&nbsp; Here are the details of the jobs report:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 254K vs. 135K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 223K vs. 125K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.1% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>At a minimum, this data point shows that Powell could have been wrong. When Powell cut interest rates by 50 bps, he explained it away by predicting labor weakness. The just released jobs report shows that there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>Before and after the 50 bps rate cut,  we shared with readers The Arora Report analysis that the data did not support a 50 bps rate cut. Today's jobs report clearly proves that The Arora Report analysis was correct and the Fed may have made a mistake.  </li>
<li>Bonds are falling on the strong report.</li>
<li>Stocks are seeing extremely aggressive buying after the report. In the short term, it is bullish in that Powell gave the stock  market a big gift of a 50 bps cut predicting labor weakness, but there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>After the jobs report, AI stocks are ripping. In the early trade, buying is extremely aggressive in AI stocks.  </li>
<li>This data is going to be ammunition for those who have been saying that the 50 bps rate cut was designed to help Harris win the election even though the Fed continues to publicly say that the Fed does not consider politics. Keep in mind, Trump has said that he would not reappoint Powell.</li>
<li>Adding to the optimism is that dock workers have suspended their strike.</li>
<li>In the longer term, this jobs data raises the probability that inflation will not come down to the Fed's 2% target and the Fed will once again be proven wrong.</li>
<li>As a note of caution, this is only one piece of data. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching additional pieces of new data as it comes. This is exactly what prudent investors should do.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index yesterday came at 54.9 vs. 51.6 consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, this data also shows that the economy is strong.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on strong jobs data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

General

GOOG

AI Stocks Ripping, Barn Burner Jobs Report - Could Powell Be Wrong?

On Wednesday, October 3rd, U.S. markets closed lower as investors braced for the September payrolls report, which could influence future interest rate decisions. The slight rise in jobless claims signaled labor market softening, while escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, adding to the cautious sentiment and prompting some profit-taking after recent gains.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000, slightly above estimates, while the S&amp;P Global services PMI was revised lower to 55.2 in September, down from 55.7 in August. The composite PMI also dipped to 54.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors ended in the red, with consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate stocks leading losses, while energy and information technology sectors rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.44% and closed at 42,011.59. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 0.17% at 5,699.94, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.04%, finishing the session at 17,918.48.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.16% at 38,613.50, led by gains in the Precision Instruments, Insurance, and Railway &amp; Bus sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day lower by 0.67% at 8,150.00, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials and IT sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 closed lower by 0.79% at 25,049.85, and the Nifty 500 was down 0.84% to 23,556.85.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.82%, ending the day at 22,736.87.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.21%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX was up 0.33%.</li>
<li>France's CAC rose 0.41%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.45%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.99% at $74.47/bbl, and Brent was up 1.00% at $78.41/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose driven by fears of Middle East tensions disrupting crude flows despite ample global supply. Brent and WTI crude gained around 9% this week as Israel-Iran tensions and Libya's production rebound influenced market dynamics.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.24% at $2.963.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.03% at $2,678.45, Silver fell 0.52% to $32.290, and Copper gained 0.21% to $4.5627.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.30%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.10% to 101.89, the USD/JPY was down 0.31% to 146.47, and the USD/AUD declined 0.05% to 1.4610.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

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Geopolitical Concerns Mount, Crude Oil Gains, Asia And Europe Markets Mixed - Global Markets Today While US Slept

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-03_08h44_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cognitive Dissonance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-bonds-israel-strike-iran-tlt-mc-10032024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed rate cut was announced.</li>
<li>At the time the Fed rate cut was announced, this was the landscape:
<ul>
<li>Wall Street firms were tripping over themselves to rush their clients into buying long bonds.</li>
<li>The momo crowd was aggressively buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Technically, long bonds had broken out.</li>
<li>Trading services were sending signals to their members to go all in on buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Almost everyone was predicting that bond yields would fall much lower.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Long bonds move inversely to the yield.&nbsp; When yield goes higher, long bonds fall.</li>
<li>On the morning before the Fed rate cut announcement, The Arora Report made a bold call contrary to the prevailing wisdom.  The call was inline with prior calls that long bond yields may rise and long bonds may fall after the rate cut.  We wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that long bonds have fallen and yields have risen.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout above the resistance zone failed.&nbsp; Ironically, this breakout was the reason legions of investors who rely only on traditional technical analysis bought long bonds on the breakout. To make matters worse, most of such bond trading positions are taken on high leverage.&nbsp; Due to high leverage, these positions now have substantial losses.
<ul>
<li>This is a cautionary tale that illustrates why investors should not rely solely on one form of analysis such as traditional technical analysis. Investors should rely on systems, such as The Arora Report system, that synergistically combine in an optimized manner the best elements of the following:
<ul>
<li>Macro analysis</li>
<li>Fundamental analysis</li>
<li>Technical analysis</li>
<li>Quantitative analysis</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Money is flowing into the safety of Treasuries due to anxiety about potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the escalation in the Middle East, TLT would have been much lower now.</li>
<li>Going forward, investors need to remember the probability adjusted risk reward ratio in long bonds is not great.  Long bonds will work only if there is a major recession or a major war breaks out.  However, investors need to remember that the stock market is counting on no recession. Investors are suffering from cognitive dissonance – they are buying stocks believing that there will not be a recession, they are buying bonds believing there will be a recession.</li>
<li>If inflation starts rising again, investors in long bonds will experience major losses.&nbsp; Investors are very short sighted and are also losing track of the fact that the election is not far away.&nbsp; Both Trump and Harris are committed to more reckless borrowing and more reckless spending.&nbsp; This will increase the supply of Treasuries.&nbsp; How can a higher supply of Treasuries be good for long bonds?&nbsp; The answer is that it is not good for long bonds.</li>
<li>On the positive side, NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), CEO Jensen Huang says Blackwell production is in full swing and the demand for Blackwell is insane.</li>
<li>Also on the positive side, OpenAI has raised $6.6B in new funds at a valuation of $157B.&nbsp; This valuation is significantly higher than the last round.</li>
<li>Anxiety is building among investors regarding the upcoming strike on Iran by Israel.&nbsp; There are reports that Israel wants to attack Iran's nuclear installations, but Biden is trying to restrain Israel.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 225K vs. 223K consensus.&nbsp; Jobless claims are not showing weakness in the jobs picture.&nbsp; Powell saw weakness in the jobs picture, and that was one of his justifications for the 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; More information will become available about the jobs picture tomorrow when the official jobs report is released at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; The jobs report has the potential to be a major market moving event.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; The consensus is 51.6.&nbsp; This data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
The stock buying stampede in Hong Kong is slowing.  Mainland markets are closed.  Prudent investors are taking advantage of the rally to sell.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report&#8217;s plan continues to be to buy on a dip.  The Arora Report has new buy zones for Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">India</h3>
Growth concerns are emerging in India.  Money is beginning to flow out of India and into China.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report has new signals on India ETF WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>), VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>), and iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Investors Suffering Cognitive Dissonance, Insane Demand For Nvidia Chips, Anxiety Builds About Israel And Iran

Economic activity in the U.S. services sector continued to expand in September, as the Services PMI reached 54.9%, its highest level since February 2023, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/pmi">marking a robust recovery</a>.
According to the Services ISM Report On Business released on Thursday, this increase of 3.4 percentage points from August's 51.5% reflects strong growth in business activity and new orders. 
The report raises concerns about how it may influence upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the services sector expanding for 49 of the last 52 months, the data suggests resilient demand, which could influence the Fed's decision on the size of the anticipated November cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.6% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in November, with a 34.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut.
Also on Thursday, the S&amp;P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 55.2 in September. That&#8217;s slightly down from 55.7 in August. This marked the 20th consecutive month of expansion in services activity. New orders continued to rise solidly, although input prices increased at the joint-fastest pace in a year, driven by salary pressures and higher costs for manufactured goods.
Employment dropped for the second month, but companies remained cautious about hiring due to strong cost pressures. Business confidence declined sharply to its lowest level since October 2022 as concerns about an economic slowdown grew.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">September ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Services PMI rose to 54.9% in September, the highest reading since February 2023.</li>
<li>Business activity expanded significantly, with the Business Activity Index climbing to 59.9%.</li>
<li>The New Orders Index increased to 59.4%, up from 53% in August.</li>
<li>The Employment Index contracted to 48.1%, down from 50.2% in August.</li>
<li>The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion, hitting 52.1%.</li>
<li>Panelists expressed concerns over political uncertainty and labor costs, despite positive supply chain improvements.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Experts React To September Data</h3>
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, highlighted the continued expansion in services. "Twelve industries reported growth in September, up two from the 10 industries reporting growth in August,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion in September, indicating slower delivery performance,&#8221; Miller added. &#8220;The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists' comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month&#8221;
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said, &#8220;U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years.&#8221; 
Still, he also noted that &#8220;companies have become increasingly concerned about the outlook… with business confidence slumping in September amid uncertainty caused by the upcoming election as well as perceptions of rising recession risks.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Markets were trading lower on Thursday following the data release.
The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was trading 0.5% lower.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), was up 0.31%
Other major asset movements following the ISM Services PMI print included: 
<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), tracking long-dated Treasuries, was down 0.63%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Services Sector Surges In September, Raising Questions For Fed's November Rate Cut

On Wednesday, October 2nd, U.S. markets closed slightly higher, as the S&amp;P 500 ended flat. Technology stocks gained, driven by Nvidia, while concerns over Middle East tensions and upcoming U.S. labor data kept investors cautious. Tesla shares fell, and attention shifted to Friday&#8217;s key labor report.
In economic data, U.S. private businesses added 143,000 workers in September, surpassing August&#8217;s revised 103,000 and beating market estimates of 124,000, according to ADP.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by consumer stocks, while energy and tech sectors closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.09% and closed at 42,196.52. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.01% at 5,709.54, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.08%, finishing the session at 17,925.12.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 2.01% at 38,552.50, led by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic and Real Estate sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.09% at 8,205.20, led by gains in the A-REITs, Telecoms Services and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed lower by 2.12% at 25,250.10, and the Nifty 500 was down 2.13% to 23,755.45.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng slid 1.47%, ending the day at 22,113.51.</li>
<li>Global stocks dipped as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel&#8217;s bombing of Beirut, raised concerns about oil supply disruptions. Weak business data from Europe and mixed performances in Asia contributed to the market downturn. Despite these pressures, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei rose, driven by the new prime minister&#8217;s commitment to low rates.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.68%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was down 0.57%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.85%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.23%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.07% at $71.57/bbl, and Brent was up 1.91% at $75.31/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose due to concerns over a potential widening Middle East conflict, which could disrupt crude supplies despite strong global supply levels. Israel&#8217;s airstrikes on Beirut heightened geopolitical tensions, but swelling U.S. crude inventories suggested the market remains well-supplied.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was up 1.00% at $2.915.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.15% at $2,665.30, Silver fell 0.60% to $31.730, and Copper declined 1.11% to $4.5970.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Dow futures were down 0.33%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.46%.</li>
<li>U.S. stock futures dropped amid Middle East tensions and anticipation of the jobs report. Oil prices rose, while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41156870/levi-strauss-considers-dockers-sale-what-this-means-for-the-iconic-denim-brand" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Levi Strauss</a> (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEVI#NYSE">LEVI</a>) and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41145803/tesla-q3-deliveries-step-in-the-right-direction-analyst-says-more-heavy-lifting-nee" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla</a> (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) saw premarket declines.</li>
</ul>
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.91, the USD/JPY rose 0.27% to 146.88, and the USD/AUD gained 0.56% to 1.4605.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

LEVI

Asia Mixed, Europe Markets Fall While Crude Rises On Middle East Tensions – Global Markets Today While US Slept

Amid the fallout from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">Iran&#8217;s missile attack</a> against Israel on Tuesday, market observers are closely watching the unfolding conflict and its possible effects on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">gold prices</a>.
What Happened: Iran fired 100 to 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The attack came following several Israeli strikes on the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. 
Israel has been at war with Hamas, also <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/07/39941704/netanyahu-addresses-us-congress-emphasizes-alliance-against-iran-in-middle-east-give-us-the-tool">supported by Iran</a>, since Oct. 7, 2023, following a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/10/35136071/israel-under-siege-unprecedented-hamas-attack-sparks-intense-clashes-netanyahu-says-we-are-at-war">Hamas terrorist attack</a> that left over 1,000 Israelis dead. Israel&#8217;s subsequent military campaign against Hamas in Gaza resulted in a reported death toll of over 40,000, <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/gaza-death-toll-tops-41638-after-51-killed-past-day?nid=394896&amp;topic=Israel%2527s%2520war%2520on%2520Gaza&amp;fid=532496">according</a> to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Iran&#8217;s most significant geopolitical rival, Saudi Arabia, has normalized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/23/09/35005546/how-the-us-saudi-defense-pact-could-reshape-middle-east-geopolitics">relations with Israel</a> in recent years with American support. The Iranians and Saudis have already engaged in proxy warfare in Yemen, among other countries, for decades. The most recent developments, however, point to a possible direct warfare between Middle Eastern spheres of influence.
The United States and its allies are particularly concerned with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40868101/us-and-allies-worried-amid-reports-of-russia-potentially-sharing-nuclear-secrets-with-iran">Iran&#8217;s nuclear development</a>.
Impact On Gold: Investors flock to gold during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Financial markets might experience heightened volatility during such a conflict, with investors seeking safer alternatives. A confrontation between Israel and Iran would likely increase demand for gold, driving up prices.
Further conflict in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, leading to higher global energy prices, which might contribute to inflation. Since gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, this could further boost demand for gold.
While it is yet unclear whether Iran&#8217;s attack on Israel will escalate to something larger, any news seemingly pointing in that direction will send gold prices higher.
Gold Price Action: The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLDM#NYSE">GLDM</a>) are among the largest gold ETFs.
While gold prices moved higher following Iran&#8217;s military action on Tuesday, gains quickly subsided. The SPDR Gold Trust is trading just 0.44% higher than it did on Monday.
Gold&#8217;s muted price action could indicate one of two things. Investors may already have priced in the likelihood of war breaking out in the Middle East. Thus, Tuesday&#8217;s missile attack might not have surprised market observers, who are already weary of possible warfare.
Alternatively, investors could be skeptical of the likelihood of the conflict between Iran and Israel escalating further. Several scares in Middle Eastern relations in recent years have not amounted to large-scale conflict.
Regardless, gold has had a remarkable year, hovering near an all-time high price. The commodity is trading 28% higher in 2024 and has increased 44.17% in the last 12 months.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41143156/oil-prices-spike-energy-stocks-jump-after-irans-missile-attack-on-israel-what-investors-need-to-know">Oil Prices Spike, Energy Stocks Jump After Iran&#8217;s Missile Attack On Israel: What Investors Need To Know</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Global

GLDM

Investors Look To Gold As Middle East Tensions Rise: How Israel-Iran Conflict Could Impact Prices

United Nations Security Council members convened for an emergency session Wednesday in New York to address Israel, Lebanon, Iran and whether an all-out war in the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/middle-east">Middle East is preventable</a>.
What Happened: Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon, in his remarks to the UN Security Council, called Iran&#8217;s missile strike the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">&#8220;largest&#8221; in Israel&#8217;s history</a>. 
&#8220;The council must understand the situation Israel is forced to live in. We are under attack,&#8221; Danon said, citing how holy sites were targeted. 
Israeli defense systems intercepted most of the 200 missiles Tuesday as they prepped for ground operations, the <a href="https://apnews.com/live/israel-lebanon-ground-operation-updates">Associated Press</a> reported.
&#8220;The world watched silently as Iran funded and directed attacks against us for the past year, arming and training their proxies for decades,&#8221; Danon added. &#8220;Now the world must step up. Iran must pay a heavy price for this attack. Anything less is complicity.&#8221;
As of early Wednesday afternoon, the meeting remained in session. See video below.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="LIVE: UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East" width="500" height="375" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1VyjPJclLAI?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41143156/oil-prices-spike-energy-stocks-jump-after-irans-missile-attack-on-israel-what-investors-need-to-know">Oil Prices Spike, Energy Stocks Jump After Iran&#8217;s Missile Attack On Israel — What Investors Need To Know</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bracing For Further Escalation</h3>
The UN meeting is taking place while Israeli troops&nbsp;battle Hezbollah militants&nbsp;inside Lebanon, making good on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu&#8216;s&nbsp;vow to retaliate, per <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/israel-vows-retaliation-for-massive-iranian-missile-attack">Bloomberg</a>.
The Israeli army Wednesday suffered at least eight fatalities since the ground operation began, CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-missile-attack-middle-east-10-02-24-intl-hnk#cm1rx3x98000e3b6qp2nmm7pn">reported</a> citing Israel Defense Forces. 
Iran launched the attack against Israel following the recent killing of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/41079860/israel-tightens-grip-hezbollah-leader-hassan-nasrallah-killed">Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah</a>. 
Since its formation in the early 1980s, Hezbollah — which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization — has received substantial support from Tehran, which views the group as an ally in advancing its influence in the Middle East.
The White House promised consequences for Iran's attack on Israel. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden reiterated at the start of a meeting with officials: &#8220;Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully supportive of Israel.&#8221;
Market Reaction: Following the missile attacks from Iran on Israel, plus Tuesday&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/10/41139919/private-sector-job-gains-outpace-forecasts-in-september-as-us-adds-143-000-jobs">job and economic data</a>, major stock indices dropped. As of early Tuesday afternoon:
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 was down slightly by 0.08%. </li>
<li>The Dow Jones was down by 0.02%. </li>
<li>The Nasdaq was up by 0.09%. </li>
</ul>
At last check, ETFs that track the indexes were up:
<ul>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.01% at $568.56 Tuesday.</li>
<li>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) was down slightly at $421.23.</li>
<li>The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is up 0.22% to $482.33.</li>
</ul>
&#8220;Financial markets have reacted as one would expect to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a bout of risk aversion sweeping through asset classes in the past 24 hours,&#8221; said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy and global financial services at Ebury.
Equity markets are trading lower and, in currencies, the safe-havens have outperformed most of their peers, he adds. This includes the U.S. dollar, which remains buoyed following some hawkish <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240930a.htm">comments</a> from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday.
The conflict is also causing broader concerns for inflation and central bank policy. Higher oil prices could undermine the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s efforts to control inflation, potentially delaying future interest rate cuts, per <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/stock-markets-slump-oil-jumps-as-iran-attack-sparks-fear-of-all-out-war-in-mideast/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Times of Israel</a>.
What To Look For: Ryan says investors are &#8220;rightly fearful&#8221; that Israel&#8217;s retaliation could disrupt oil supplies. After all, Iran is the seventh-largest oil producer in the world. 
The price of gold and oil both spiked higher after the attack. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was trading slightly higher on the day at $72.13 at last check while the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) is down 0.11% to $245.33 Wednesday. 
&#8220;The wider implication for markets is the rising possibility of a sharp move higher in global oil futures, and another period of elevated energy prices and consumer inflation,&#8221; Ryan says.
The ramifications will not be &#8220;anywhere near as severe&#8221; as those that followed Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine, Ryan adds. &#8220;So far, at least, the moves in markets have been relatively contained.&#8221;
Defense ETFs, as of Wednesday afternoon, were trending up:
<ul>
<li>IShares U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#BATS">ITA</a>) rose 0.37% to $151.91.</li>
<li>Invesco Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PPA#NYSE">PPA</a>) is up 0.15% to $116.10. </li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XAR#NYSE">XAR</a>) is up 0.67% to $159.98. </li>
</ul>
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41112728/us-boosts-military-presence-in-middle-east-deploys-fighter-squadrons-amid-rising-tensions-with-iran">US Boosts Military Presence In Middle East As Tensions Spike With Iran</a> </li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock.

Sector ETFs

Politics

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund

Markets Turn Risk-Off As Israel, Iran Clash: Investors 'Rightly Fearful' Of Oil Disruption, Strategist Says

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-02_09h01_16.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">The Power Of Missile Defense</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-raytheon-missile-defense-iron-dome-patriot-rtx-mc-10022024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Rtx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of RTX stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Iran fired about 180 ballistic missiles on Israel.  Israel and the U.S. were able to intercept most of these missiles with missile defense systems. These missiles reached Israel in 12 minutes. The defense was impressive considering there were no fatalities.</li>
<li>What happened in Israel yesterday shows the power of missile defense systems and illustrates the opportunity for investors in missile defense stocks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, RTX is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. RTX is The Arora Report's favorite missile defense stock.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that RTX has broken out on the success of missile defense in Israel.</li>
<li>RTX is a joint developer of the Iron Dome used in Israel. RTX is best known for its Patriot Air And Missile Defense System.  RTX also produces several other missile defense systems and aircraft engines.</li>
<li>RTX entered The Arora Report portfolio when the stock experienced a massive drop on the news of cracks in Pratt &amp; Whitney engines. The Arora Report uses over 50 different strategies. RTX belongs to the strategy of buying a good company where the stock is down due to a fixable technical problem.</li>
<li>The chart shows the power of buy zones.  Buy zones allow investors to buy stocks and ETFs when the probability adjusted risk reward is more favorable.  Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin in investing. Smart money focuses on risk adjusted returns. In contrast, the momo crowd focuses only on rewards – the result is that the momo crowd goes through volatile cycles of making money and losing money, and in the end, accumulating far less than smart money.</li>
<li>The chart illustrates the power of a billionaire and hedge fund technique known as a trade around position.&nbsp; A trade around position can dramatically increase profits and reduce risks.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the RTX trade around position was started at an average of $80.70. The position has over 50% gain as of this writing.  The trade around position is separate and distinct from the core position.</li>
<li>Peace is not about to break out in the world.&nbsp; As such, all investors should consider a defense stock or ETF in their portfolio.</li>
<li>For those interested in ETFs, The Arora Report&#8217;s ETF of choice is iShares US Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#BATS">ITA</a>).&nbsp; As full disclosure, ITA is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Automatic Data Processing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADP#NASDAQ">ADP</a>) is the largest private payroll processor in the country.&nbsp; ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the employment picture ahead of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday.&nbsp; ADP employment change came at 143K vs. 120K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.</li>
<li>Previously, JOLTS job openings came at 8.04M, higher than expectations.</li>
<li>&nbsp;ISM Manufacturing Index came at 47.2 vs. 47.4 consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying Stampede</h3>
Stocks are experiencing a once in a century buying stampede in Hong Kong.  Stocks in Hong Kong rose 7%. Property developers rose 47%, and broker stocks rose 35%.  As full disclosure, Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in &nbsp;Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Opportunity In Missile Defense Stocks, Once In A Century Buying Stampede In Hong Kong

Benzinga Market Summary: Oil Continues Higher Amid Israel-Iran Tensions, Safe Haven Assets Including Gold And The Dollar Rise, Nike Falls On Revenue Miss, Tesla Falls On Delivery And Production Figures

The U.S. private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 124,000 jobs and reflecting a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/labor-market">rebound in job creation</a> following a five-month slowdown, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday. 
Pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers continued to slow, indicating a cooling labor market. Notably, the manufacturing sector added jobs for the first time since April, while job losses were confined to the information sector.
"Stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month," said Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist. "Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But their premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January."
The ADP report is often viewed as a preview of the government's official jobs data, set to be released on Friday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ADP National Employment Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Private employers added 143,000 jobs in September.</li>
<li>Goods-producing sectors added 42,000 jobs, with 14,000 in natural resources/mining and 26,000 in construction.</li>
<li>Service-providing sectors saw 101,000 new jobs, with 34,000 added in leisure/hospitality and 20,000 in professional/business services.</li>
<li>Job-stayers&#8217; annual pay growth slowed to 4.7%, while job-changers&#8217; pay gains fell to 6.6%.</li>
<li>The South led all U.S. regions, adding 61,000 jobs, while small establishments (1-19 employees) lost 13,000 jobs.</li>
<li>Large establishments (500+ employees) saw the most growth, with 86,000 jobs added.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.12%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), fell 0.45%.</li>
<li>Futures on U.S. equity indices fell during the premarket trading Wednesday. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&amp;P 500 were down by 0.07% and 0.23%, respectively, by 8:20 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed 0.9% lower, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) was down 1.39%.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41132441/billionaire-investor-who-predicted-2000-2008-crashes-says-market-euphoria-will-top-soon-warns-of-bla">Billionaire Investor Who Predicted 2000, 2008 Crashes Says Market Euphoria Will Top Soon, Warns Of &#8216;Black Swan Event&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

GOOGL

Private Sector Job Gains Outpace Forecasts In September As US Adds 143,000 Jobs

Investors are reacting to multiple events that could impact the values of stocks and sectors in the coming weeks, as Iran launched a missile attack on Israel Tuesday, raising <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/middle-east">tensions in the Middle East.</a>
Middle East Conflict: Iran&#8217;s attack on Israel came in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
On Tuesday, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States worked with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to help defend the country from an attack of around 200 missiles.
During a White House press briefing, Sullivan said President Joe Biden and Kamala Harris monitored the attack from the White House situation room.
The U.S. government is working with the IDF to assess the impact of the attack, but there are no deaths known of Israelis at the current time, Sullivan said.
"This attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective," Sullivan said.
Sullivan called Tuesday's events a "fluid situation" that involves continuous monitoring for further threats. He said that one of the key focuses of the U.S. is protecting service members in the region.
While addressing reporters, Sullivan said he would not share Biden's potential response to Iran when asked what the president meant by "severe consequences."
"I can tell you that he is tracking this minute to minute."
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/41102248/stocks-slip-as-powell-says-future-interest-rate-cuts-hinge-on-data-economy-is-in-solid-shape-we-inte">Powell Says Future Interest Rate Cuts Hinge On Data, Stocks Slip: &#8216;Economy Is In Solid Shape, We Intend To Use Our Tools To Keep It There&#8217;</a>
Hurricane Helene Update: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/41096388/hurricane-helene-102-dead-2-million-without-power-after-storm-destruction-in-6-states" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Over 100 fatalities</a> have occurred from Hurricane Helene and its aftermath. Several states continue to be impacted and are working on restoration.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden will travel to North Carolina on Wednesday, and Harris will travel to Georgia Wednesday and then North Carolina later in the week.
Jean-Pierre said the White House is using every tool to help in the response and will be there every step of the way.
Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas gave an update on the response during the briefing.
"This is a multi-billion dollar undertaking," Mayorkas said.
Mayorkas said around $1.7 billion has already been approved for individual assistance, and the rebuilding cost will be shared later, adding that it will be "extraordinarily costly."
When asked why Biden is going to Raleigh, North Carolina, and not a harder-hit area by the storm, Mayorkas said the president was trying not to interfere with the urgency of the response.
Port Strikes: Jean-Pierre said the president is also closely monitoring the port strikes and hopes the two parties can work through collective bargaining to prevent disruptions to the supply chain.
"I hope the American people have confidence in this president," Jean-Pierre said.
Jean-Pierre said the task force is meeting daily and will continue monitoring the situation.
Market Reaction: The price of gold and oil both spiked higher after the attack. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) was up 3% to $72.11 on Tuesday. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) was up 1% to $245.61.
News of the attacks sent major market indexes lower throughout the trading session. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was down 0.9% to $568.62 on Tuesday. The ETF has hit new all-time highs in recent days and had a positive return in September for the first time in five years.
The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, was down 0.4% to $421.50.
The&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, was down 1.4% to $481.27.
Several of the indexes recovered slightly into the close after further attacks did not happen.
Overall, technology stocks were hit the hardest, with defense and oil stocks trading higher.
Bitcoin&nbsp;(CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is down 2% to $61,990.80 on Tuesday at the time of writing.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41126631/hurricane-helene-devastation-the-latest-on-damage-companies-affected">Hurricane Helene Devastation: The Latest On Damage, Companies Affected</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Movers

Market Sells Off Over Iran's Attack On Israel, Port Strikes, Hurricane Helene: National Security Adviser Calls Attack 'Defeated And Ineffective'

Gold&#39;s record-breaking surge continues, with the precious commodity now up close to 40% over one year, outpacing the stock market&#39;s benchmark, which gained 32% over the same time. As gold ETFs and several gold mining stocks soar, the question arises: Is now the time to buy, or should investors wait for a pullback?
<h2>What&#39;s Driving the Gold Rally?</h2>
Much of gold&#39;s rise has been driven by uncertainty in global markets, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and ambiguity surrounding the Federal Reserve&#39;s monetary policy. However, in recent weeks leading up to the first interest rate cut, the price of gold surged, primarily due to easing inflation and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Data had signaled a slowing U.S. economy, causing investors to flock to the perceived safety of gold. With inflation nearing the Fed&#39;s 2% target, gold again emerged as a preferred hedge against potential economic turbulence.
The weakening of the U.S. dollar has also contributed significantly to gold&#39;s rise. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign buyers, increasing demand. Additionally, expectations that the Fed will continue cutting rates have further pushed the price of gold upward. These dynamics have supported the precious metal&#39;s rally and boosted silver, which has gained almost 35% during the same period.
One of the most popular ways to gain exposure to gold, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, recently broke out of a multi-week consolidation phase, hitting new all-time highs. Before the Fed&#39;s 50-basis point rate cut last week, GLD posted a substantial 24.8% year-to-date gain. Since then, the ETF has risen nearly 4%, continuing to trade at elevated levels.
Given these developments, the question becomes whether it&#39;s still a good time to invest in gold or if waiting for a pullback makes more sense. Let&#39;s examine the technical positioning of the ETF and a few key gold stocks to assess the potential risks and rewards.
<h2>GLD: Momentum Continues, but Overbought Signals Flashing</h2>
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which provides exposure to the price of gold without requiring investors to hold the commodity physically, has been on a tear. Year-to-date, it&#39;s up 29%, and over the past 12 months, it has climbed an impressive 40%. However, after its significant 6% rally this month, GLD&#39;s momentum may be reaching an inflection point.
The ETF&#39;s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed into overbought territory, sitting at 74.37. This suggests that a short-term pullback could be imminent. While long-term investors may still see an upside in gold, now may not be the ideal time to initiate a new position. It might be prudent to wait for a consolidation or a pullback to reset the RSI before adding to or starting a new position in GLD.&nbsp;
<h2>Newmont: Leader in the Gold Mining Space</h2>
Newmont (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nem#NYSE">NEM</a>), the largest U.S.-based gold mining stock by market capitalization, has been closely tracking the price of gold, surging nearly 35% year-to-date. The stock is up 5% this week alone, reflecting the recent strength in the commodity. With a forward P/E ratio of just 14.98, Newmont remains fairly valued compared to its peers.
However, like GLD, Newmont&#39;s stock has reached the high end of its current uptrend, with an RSI of 70.86, indicating potential overbought conditions. While it may not be a sell signal just yet, those looking to enter a fresh position may want to wait for a dip closer to its rising 20-day simple moving average (SMA) to capitalize on future upside potential.
<h2>Barrick Gold: A Relative Bargain?</h2>
Barrick Gold&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gold#NYSE">GOLD</a>), a Canadian gold production giant, has underperformed compared to its peers. The stock has struggled year-to-date, remaining stuck in a tight consolidation near its 52-week high. However, this underperformance could offer an opportunity.&nbsp;Barrick appears less overextended, with an RSI of 57 and a forward P/E of 11.81 than other gold mining stocks.
Barrick could experience relative strength and catch up to its competitors if the sector surges. Investors may want to consider Barrick a potential value play within the gold mining space.
The article &quot;<a href="https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-ideas/gold-rush-continues-time-to-buy-more-or-take-profits/">Gold Rush Continues: Time to Buy More or Take Profits?</a>&quot; first appeared on MarketBeat.

Large Cap

Technicals

Events

GOLD

Gold Rush Continues: Time to Buy More or Take Profits?

On Tuesday, Iran launched a missile attack against Israel following the recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The strike occurred after the United States warned that an attack in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/10/41120592/iran-set-to-launch-ballistic-missile-attack-against-israel-report">the region was imminent.</a>
What Happened: Tensions have been increasing in the Middle East, which has led the United States to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41112728/us-boosts-military-presence-in-middle-east-deploys-fighter-squadrons-amid-rising-tensions-with-iran">boost its military presence</a> in the region.
Missiles were launched from Iran at Israel, with sirens going off in the country and telling residents to take shelter.
The number of missiles fired by Iran ranged from 100 to 200 according to a report from <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-10-01/middle-east-latest-m1qnx63j-iran-fires-rockets-at-israel-idf-says?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg</a>.
Iran said the attack was retaliation for the killing of senior leaders including Nasrallah by Israel. They also warned that further strikes would follow if Israel chooses to retaliate.
Tuesday's attack was the first direct missile strike by Iran on Israel since April.
Read Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40993833/irans-president-says-we-dont-want-to-fight-but-israel-wants-to-drag-everyone-into-war-and-destabiliz" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Iran's President Says ‘We Don't Want To Fight' But Israel ‘Wants To Drag Everyone Into War And Destabilize The Region' — Willing To Put Our Weapons Aside If They Do The Same</a>
What's Next: The attack on Israel could be the beginning of increased escalation in the Middle East, and could also see a reaction from the United States.
"A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran," a senior White House official said Tuesday morning, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/politics/iran-missile-attack-israel/index.html">reported </a>by CNN.
The White House has said that the country is "actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against" any attack.
CNN reported that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris met with top national security officials Tuesday to discuss plans on how to respond to the attack that was expected on Israel.
"They reviewed the status of U.S. preparations to help Israel defend against attacks and protect U.S. personnel," White House spokesperson Emilie Simons said.
Israel has warned that Iran&#8217;s attack could trigger further escalations.
"There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said during a speech last week.
On Tuesday, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the country is "Tracking events in the Middle East very closely." The Secretary of State said the U.S. is "committed to Israel's defense.&#8221;
Market Reaction: The price of gold and oil both spiked higher after the attack. The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is up 4% to $72.39 on Tuesday. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) is up 1% to $245.99 on Tuesday. 
News of the attacks has the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) down 1% to $567.35 on Tuesday. The ETF has hit new all-time highs in recent days and had a positive return in September for the first time in five years.
Other market indexes are also trading lower Tuesday on the new report.
The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is down 1% to $420.59.
The&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is down 2% to $479.22.
Overall, technology stocks are getting hit the hardest, with defense and oil stocks trading higher.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is down 3% to $61,679.21 on Tuesday at the time of writing.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/08/40164105/potential-iranian-attack-on-israel-could-rattle-markets-what-happened-to-stocks-when-russia-invaded" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Potential Iranian Attack On Israel Could Rattle Markets: What Happened To Stocks When Russia Invaded Ukraine?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Iran Attacks Israel With Missiles, Middle East Tensions Escalate: S&P 500, Stocks, Bitcoin Fall As Oil, Gold Rise

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, which has caused global uncertainty and lifted safe-haven assets.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-01_08h10_05.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Important Data Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-dip-powell-blind-money-spy-mc-10012024">click here</a> for an enalrged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the dip in the market caused by Powell's remarks. Powell pushed back against aggressive rate cut bets that the momo crowd has placed. Powell clearly said that the Fed plans on two 25 bps cuts this year assuming the economy stays on the expected trajectory. The momo crowd is counting on 100 bps cut. Even non-momo investors are betting on 75 bps cuts.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dip on Powell's remarks was aggressively bought, running the stock market higher than where it was before Powell's remarks. The buying appears to be related to quarter end window dressing.</li>
<li>Momo gurus' new narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks is to not trust the Fed.&nbsp; Prudent investors always need to be mindful that momo gurus' interest is not the same as prudent investors' best interest.</li>
<li>There are two important pieces of data ahead.
<ul>
<li>JOLTS job openings data will be released at 10am ET.</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing index will also be released at 10am ET.</li>
<li>Both of these pieces of data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The most important economic data this week is the jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports, that will be released at 8:30am ET on Friday.</li>
<li>Expect blind money to flow into the stock market today and tomorrow.&nbsp; Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis irrespective of market conditions.</li>
<li>East coast port workers have gone on strike. FedEx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) is a beneficiary.  As full disclosure, FDX was recently added to the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy, taking advantage of the dip on earnings.  The Arora Report utilizes over 50 different strategies. FDX belongs to the strategy of earnings patterns that historically work. </li>
<li>In important news for prudent investors, Michael Dell has sold $1.22B in Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DELL#NYSE">DELL</a>) shares.&nbsp; Michael Dell is taking advantage of the run up in Dell shares on the AI frenzy.&nbsp; The momo crowd is oblivious and has been an aggressive buyer of DELL stock.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should also note that there is a consistent pattern of insiders selling AI stocks that have run up.&nbsp; It is important to pay attention to the protection band as well as to separate articles indicating putting on hedges or taking partial profits.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
Japan's new prime minister is likely to favor tighter fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy.  Such tighter policies will be good for the Japanese yen.  As full disclosure, there is a position in yen using Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.  On the negative side, tighter fiscal and monetary policies in Japan increase the risk to the carry trade.  Lately, in the carry trade, funds have been borrowing in yen and investing in U.S. stocks, especially AI stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

DELL

Powell Stock Market Drip Aggressively Bought, Important Data And Blind Money Ahead

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Falls Amid Iran-Israel Tensions And Dockworkers Strike, Oil Surges On Report Of Potential Iran Attack On Israel, Gold And Silver Rise While Bitcoin Drops

Iran could be nearing an attack on Israel with ballistic missiles, according to a new report. The attack would come as retaliation against Israel for an airstrike attack that killed<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/09/41101298/oil-prices-remain-steady-after-hezbollah-leaders-death-israel-informs-us-of-potential-ground-incursi"> Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.</a>
What Happened: Tensions have been increasing in the Middle East, which has led the United States to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41112728/us-boosts-military-presence-in-middle-east-deploys-fighter-squadrons-amid-rising-tensions-with-iran">boost its military presence</a> in the region in case of attack escalations.
On Tuesday, the United States said they believe Iran will attack Israel with ballistic missiles imminently, as reported by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-01/us-says-iran-preparing-to-attack-israel-with-ballistic-missiles?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg</a>.
The United States is preparing to help defend Israel from any attack, which could escalate tensions between America and Iran.
Israel has started deploying forces into southern Lebanon as it intensifies its operations against Hezbollah.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40993833/irans-president-says-we-dont-want-to-fight-but-israel-wants-to-drag-everyone-into-war-and-destabiliz">Iran&#8217;s President Says &#8216;We Don&#8217;t Want To Fight&#8217; But Israel &#8216;Wants To Drag Everyone Into War And Destabilize The Region&#8217; — Willing To Put Our Weapons Aside If They Do The Same</a>
Market Reaction: News of a potential escalation in the Middle East region has caused the markets to react intensely.
The price of gold and oil both spiked higher after the report.
<ul>
<li>The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) is up 3% to $71.93 on Tuesday.</li>
<li>The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) is up 1% to $246.23.</li>
</ul>
News of the imminent attacks sent the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) lower by 1% to $567.77 on Tuesday. The ETF has hit new all-time highs in recent days and had a positive return in September for the first time in five years.
Other market indexes are also trading lower Tuesday on the new report.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is down 1% to $419.84.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is down 2% to $479.87.
Read Next: 
<ul>
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To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chinese Market Breaks Negative Pattern</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fomo-driving-chinese-market-breaks-negative-pattern-ashr-mc-09302024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>In a prior article, we shared with you details of China's stimulus program. Prior to last Tuesday, Chinese stocks had been beaten down and had been trading at low valuations.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the Chinese stock market has broken the negative pattern of lower highs.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the pattern existed from the 2021 peak until last week.</li>
<li>When the rally first started, the concern was that this rally would also fail like prior rallies. Initially, it was simply prudent to consider the rally in Chinese stocks last week to be suspect.  The chart shows that even the COVID opening rally failed, and the subsequent AI rally also failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally is on high volume. This indicates conviction and provides confirmation for the rally.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the Chinese stock market is very overbought. Overbought markets tend to pullback in the short term.</li>
<li>In Shanghai, the CSI 300 jumped 8.5%. This is the biggest single day gain since 2008.</li>
<li>The five day gain in Shanghai is the strongest since 1996.</li>
<li>The chart shows that this rally has decisively broken the downtrend like a rocketship.</li>
<li>From a technical perspective, such strong rallies tend to take stocks higher after a brief pullback.</li>
<li>The rally is partly driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) among foreign investors who are rushing into China.</li>
<li>Money is flowing out of safer Chinese 30 year Treasury bonds and into Chinese stocks. Chinese 30 Treasury bond futures fell to a two month low after losing 3.6% last week.  This is the worst quick loss ever.</li>
<li>For the day, the economic data from China is poor. China's PMIs are weak. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Manufacturing PMI came at 49.8 vs. 49.4 consensus.</li>
<li>Non-manufacturing PMI came at 50.0 vs. 50.4 consensus.</li>
<li>A number less than 50 is considered economic contraction.</li>
<li>Expectations are that China's PMIs will spike up in the coming months due to government stimulus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>As full disclosure, The Arora Report has published new buy zones for Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (ASHR) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging. There is also a new buy zone for emerging markets consumer Columbia Research Enhanced Emerging Economies ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ECON#NYSE">ECON</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging. Emerging market consumers are getting rich and provide one of the best opportunities for long term investors. Instead of chasing the price on Chinese stocks and ETFs, prudent investors should consider being highly selective. </li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, investors are ignoring two risks in China:
<ul>
<li>The traditional geopolitical risk, especially related to Taiwan.</li>
<li>The risk of Trump being elected. Trump is proposing 100% &#8211; 200% tariffs on Chinese goods. Such tariffs will negate much of the benefit from the Chinese government stimulus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Unlike last week, the optimism from China is not carrying to the U.S. for the following reasons:
<ul>
<li>Stellantis NV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>), the owner of Chrysler, Jeep, and Fiat, is giving poor guidance.</li>
<li>Volkswagen A G Unsponsored Represent 1 10th Sh ADR (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VWAGY#OTC">VWAGY</a>) is also providing poor guidance.</li>
<li>Stocks of General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) are coming under pressure.</li>
<li>Negative sentiment from Europe is carrying to the U.S.</li>
<li>East coast dock workers may go on strike, disrupting commerce.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Also not helping this morning is that quarter end window dressing is almost over.&nbsp; In window dressing, some money managers buy the best performing stocks of the quarter so that they can show their clients in the quarter end reports that they were holding the best performing stocks.&nbsp; This was partially the reason for the recent strength in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and other AI stocks.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing some selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Emerging Global Shares Dow Jones Emerging Marketsnsumer Titan Index Fund

ECON

STLA

VWAGY

FOMO Drives Biggest Gain In Shanghai Since 2008, Chinese Market Breaks The Negative Pattern

<ul>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>BABA</li>
<li>NIO</li>
<li>RKLB</li>
<li>WAY</li>
<li>MADE</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>CCL</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>GLD</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

BABA

MADE

RKLB

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of September 30, 2024 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

The timing of the financial and economic measures taken by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) was simply perfect.

Will The Chinese Party Be Followed By A Hangover?

Massive recent buying not only catapulted gold deep into extremely-overbought territory, it exhausted gold-futures speculators' likely capital firepower for buying.

Gold Selloff Risk High

All three major benchmarks extended their weekly win streaks to four on Friday.

Oil Posts Best Week Since March 2023

Gold declined with the Dollar rally, but silver rode the equity rally and gained some ground.

Stocks And Precious Metal Charts - Risk Assets Rallied

Gold holds the line after volatile week; strong jobs data nixes hopes for big Fed rate cut

Gold has finally broken through resistance in Swiss francs, setting a new monthly closing record in September.

Gold Breakout In CHF: UBS Recommends Allocating 5% Of Your Portfolio To The Yellow Metal

If you trust the Fed to control things, platinum's demand could rise. But if you believe they won't, even in a recession, gold remains the safer bet.

Gold Or Platinum: At These Levels, Which Is The Better Buy?

Gold, Silver and the miners closed the week mixed after Monday, which was a strong monthly and quarterly close for the sector. We review the near-term outlook for Gold, Silver & the miner ETFs.

Strong Quarterly & Monthly Closes For Gold, Silver & Miners

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in various SPDR-ETF markets for the trading day that ended, Friday, October 4.

SPDR ETF Report For Friday, Oct 4

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Metal Markets Report For Friday, Oct 4

AAAU

COPX

CRWD

GDXJ

KWEB

MCHI

NUGT

OUNZ

PHYS

PPLT

PSLV

SGOL

SILJ

SIVR

Screenshot 2024-05-29 at 5.35.33 PM

ADVZF

NEWP

PAAS

Precious metal prices are significantly influenced by investor sentiment, much like stocks and bonds. This can lead to routine price fluctuations, sometimes large and erratic, where the volatility can create both challenges and opportunities for investors. 

Silver Prices Surging – How Market Conditions Are Affecting The Price Of Silver

<img decoding="async" style="height: 382px; width: 700px;" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-23_08h48_24.png" alt="" />
本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。
<h4>投機的なセンチメント</h4>
以下の点に注目：
<ul>
<li>この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。</li>
<li>投機的なセンチメントは株式市場の主要なドライバーの一つである。
<ul>
<li>投機的なセンチメントが現在非常に高い水準にある。</li>
<li>ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシー vs 電気自動車の戦いが予想される。この戦いの結果は、投機的なセンチメントに大きな影響を与えるか、あるいは取り除くかに関わる。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>チャートによると、TSLA株はガンマ・スクイーズがかかり急騰している。ガンマ・スクイーズはウォール街の重要なメカニズムである。投資家はウォール街のメカニズムについて学ぶことで大きな利得を得ることができる。</li>
<li>チャートは、TSLA株の抵抗ゾーンとサポートゾーンを示している。</li>
<li>チャートのRSIによると、TSLA株は過剰買い気味になっている。これにより、TSLA株が上昇するのを容易にする。</li>
<li>テスラの決算発表後の戦いが株式の主要な決定要因となるだろう。本日の取引の終了後にテスラは決算を発表する。</li>
<li>イーロン・マスクは、テスラの株主の一部にヒューマノイドロボット、ロボタクシー、AIにフォーカスするように働きかけることに成功した。マスク氏の株主基盤の再構築に成功したにもかかわらず、テスラ株の大部分の株主は引き続き同社の電気自動車部門に焦点を当てている。</li>
<li>電気自動車事業は引き続き弱く、さらに弱くなる可能性が高い。</li>
<li>マスク氏は、テスラがヒューマノイドロボットを生産しており、これらは来年テスラで稼働すると語った。
<ul>
<li>テスラは2026年から他社にヒューマノイドロボットを販売することを目指している。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>テスラのロボタクシーイベントは8月から10月に延期された。ロボタクシーに関するさらなる煽りと目を見張るような予測を期待していい。</li>
<li>決算発表後、電気自動車に焦点を当てる人々と、ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシーに焦点を当てる人々との間で戦いが繰り広げられる。この戦いの結果は、TSLA株だけでなく、株式市場全体のセンチメントにも影響を及ぼすだろう。</li>
<li>重要な決算の中で、ジェネラル・モーターズ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>）、ゼネラル・エレクトリック（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>）、コカ・コーラ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>）、ロッキード・マーティン（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>）、SAP（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAP#NYSE">SAP</a>）、Spotify Technology SA（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>）が予想を上回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>ユナイテッド・パーセル・サービス（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>）とNXPセミコンダクターズ（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXPI#NASDAQ">NXPI</a> ）は予想を下回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>S&amp;P500の企業のうち、約25％が今週決算を発表している。</li>
<li>株式市場は、カマラ・ハリスが大統領指名を獲得するために必要な代議員を確保したというニュースに大きな反応を見せている。しかし多くの市場関係者は、この興奮は一時的なものだと考えている。</li>
</ul>
<h4>インド</h4>
インドは引き続き最も優れた長期投資機会の一つである。フルディスクロージャーとして、インドに焦点を当てたファンドであるFairfax India Holdings Corp（OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFXDF#OTC">FFXDF</a>）は The Arora Report の ZYX Buy Model Portfolio に含まれている。インドにフォーカスした3つのETF、WisdomTree India Earnings Fund（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>）、iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF（BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>）、VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>）が The Arora Reportの ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio に含まれている。
インドの株式にとって、中央政府の予算は常に大きなイベントとなる。この度発表された予算は、長期的には素晴らしいものだが、短期的には、キャピタルゲイン税が増えたことによって投資家が慄いている。短期キャピタルゲインには20％の税率、長期キャピタルゲインには12.5％の税率が適用される。
<h4>投資の賢者の７つの流れ</h4>
早朝の取引では、Tesla Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>）のマネーフローはプラスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、Apple Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>）、Amazon.com, Inc.（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>）、Alphabet Inc Class C（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>）、Meta Platforms Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>）、およびMicrosoft Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>）のマネーフローは中立的なものである。
早朝の取引では、NVIDIA Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）とInvesco QQQ トラスト シリーズ1（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
<h4>株式のモモ・クラウドとスマートマネー</h4>
SPYとQQQのマネーフローを知ることで、投資家は利点を得ることができる。株式、金、および原油の買いがスマートマネーによって行われたタイミングを知ることで、投資家はさらなる利点を得ることができる。金にとって最も一般的なETFは、SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）である。銀にとって最も一般的なETFは、iShares Silver Trust（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）である。原油にとって最も一般的なETFは、アメリカン・オイル・ファンド（ASCA:USO）である。
<h4>ビットコイン</h4>
ビットコインの大口投資家は、ビットコイン（暗号通貨: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）を月面まで駆け上がらせる野心的なトランプの噂に取り組んでいる。その噂とは、トランプが、ビットコインを国家的な戦略準備金にすることができるというものだ。なお、トランプは、これに先立ち、ビットコインを100％ハイプした2024年の会議（およびそのラウンドテーブルイベント）に投資家を招待している。トランプはこの会議に対して、1人当たり84.5万ドルの費用を支払うことが条件となっている。
<h4>保護バンドと今後の対応</h4>
投資家にとっては、前方を見ることが、後方を見ることよりも重要である。
良質な、非常に長期のポジションを維持することを検討してみるのも一つの方法である。個々のリスク選好に基づき、現金あるいは国債、あるいは短期の戦術的取引、または短期から中期のヘッジ取引を含む保護バンドを考慮することも重要だ。これは自己を保護するための良い方法であり、反対に利益を伸ばすことができる。
投資家は、ヘッジと現金を合算することで、自己の保護バンドを確定することができる。高い保護バンドは、年配者または保守的な投資家に適している。低い保護バンドは、若い投資家または積極的な投資家に適している。もしヘッジを行わない場合、現金の合計額は上記よりも多く、しかしそれ以上にヘッジを行った場合よりも現金の合計額は少ない。
保護バンドが0％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に楽観的であり、投資家は現金を0％保有し、100％の資産を株式に投資することを選択したことを意味する。一方で保護バンドが100％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に悲観的であり、投資家はヘッジまたはショートセリングの方法で自己を保護しようと決意したことを意味する。
新たな機会を活用するには、十分な現金を保有していなければならない。これは投資家にとって非常に重要なポイントである。ヘッジレベルを調整する際には、株式ポジション（ETF以外）の部分的なストップ数量を調整することを検討する。また、残りの数量に対して幅の広いストップを使用すること、およびハイベータ株に対してもっとスペースを与えることを検討することも重要だ。なお、ハイベータ株とは、市場よりも個

米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）のパウエル議長は6月の記者会見で、金曜日に発表されたレポートによると、市場の期待をわずかになだめる形で、物価が目標を下回るかどうかの「さらなる信頼を得たい」という考えを再度表明しました。
「今年になって、データがそのような信頼を得られていない。今年初めに受け取ったインフレデータは期待を上回るものでしたが、最近の月次データはやや緩和されました」とパウエル議長は述べています。
パウエル議長は今日のデータを歓迎しましたが、2023年下半期からの不利なベース効果によって、年間データに影響を与える可能性のある新たなインフレデータは、「良いが（先月のデータよりも）それほど大きなものではない」と警告しました。
パウエル議長は、今日のデータについて投資家の興奮をなんとか冷やしました。「それは正しい方向への一歩です。ですが、これは単なる１つのデータです」と述べました。
続きを読む: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/06/39298115/fed-holds-rates-steady-projections-show-fewer-rate-cuts-higher-inflation-outlook">Fed Holds Rates Steady: Projections Show Fewer Rate Cuts, Higher Inflation Outlook</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5月のインフレ報告はFRBの新しいインフレ見通しに変更をもたらさなかった</h3>
パウエル議長は、今朝発表された5月の新しいインフレデータに続いて、連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）メンバーは経済見通し要約（SEP）でインフレ予測を更新する機会を持っていたと説明しました。しかし、SEPの結果は、多くのメンバーが概して自分の意見を変更していないと見られます。
今年の個人消費支出（PCE）インフレの予測中央値は2.6％に上昇し、これは3月の2.4％からの上昇です。来年の予測は2.3％に上昇し、これも3月の2.2％からの上昇です。2026年の予測は2.0％のままです。
パウエル議長によれば、労働市場の状況は、2020年の新型コロナウイルス（新型コロナ）パンデミックの前夜に立っていたときと同じような「相対的にタイトで過熱していない」バランスに戻っています。
2024年に1回だけの利上げが見込まれている（SEPで示されている通り）という見解に対して9月の利下げが実現可能かどうか尋ねられた際、パウエル議長は、FRBは必要な情報がすべて揃うまで、将来の会合についての決定はデータに基づいて行うと強調しました。
パウエル議長は再び繰り返しました。「我々は、現在の政策の緩和を正当化する自信を持っていない」と、今後の数ヵ月でさらなるプラスのインフレデータが必要だと強調しました。
Fed議長はまた、「労働市場での予想外の減少」が米連邦準備制度をインフレに対応するために利下げに駆り立てるかもしれないとも示唆しました。
「私たちがやるべきことは、物事が壊れてから修復するまで待つことではありません」とパウエル議長は述べ、FRBが労働市場データの進化を細心の注意を払ってモニタリングしていくと明言しました。
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">市場の反応</h3>
株式がセッションの上昇をわずかに縮小させる一方で、国債利回りはこの日の早い時間に経験した急落から回復しました。
9月の利下げに対する市場の期待は、今日の予想よりもわずかに低下し、70％前後から63％になりました。トレーダーたちは、2024年12月までに2回の完全に価格がついた利下げが期待されています。
3:30p.m. ET時点でS&amp;P 500指数は、その日の株価が1.5％上昇した3:30p.m. ETで最高値を記録した後、0.8％上昇しています。
この日の初めに史上最高値を記録した後、テクノロジー重視のNASDAQ100指数は1.1％上昇しているため、これはその勢いが落ちたということになります。 （NASDAQ：QQQ）
2年債の利回りは4.67％という日中の最安値を記録した後、4.76％に戻します。
10年債の利回りは4.25％の日中の安値からバウンスバックし、4.32％になりました。
この日の値動きを見ると、ゴールドは平坦で、セッション全体での上昇を消しました。<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)

2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/fomc">連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合</a>と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。
このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。
2024年第1四半期の3ヶ月間にわたり期待を上回るインフレ率の読書が続いたが、4月のデータは物価<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38842603/us-inflation-falls-as-expected-in-april-bolsters-fed-rate-cut-bets">プレッシャーが緩和され、予測に合致した。</a>
このためCPIデータは、インフレ率が続く低下傾向を示しているのかどうかを確認する上で極めて重要だ。これがあれば、連邦準備制度理事会の2％の物価目標を達成する希望を支えることになる。
このため、水曜日午前8時30分に労働統計局から発表される5月のインフレ報告書の重要性が増している。
5月のインフレ報告書の結果は、同日のプレスカンファレンス中に行われるジェローム・パウエル（Jerome Powell）議長の声明にも大きな影響を与えるだろう。
柔らかいインフレ率の読書は、今年の後半に利上げが行われる可能性を補強する一方、予想を上回るインフレ率はより積極的なアプローチを必要とし、おそらく長期間金利を高めに維持する必要があることを繰り返す可能性がある。
市場参加者は現在、9月の利上げの可能性を50-50で見積もっており、年末までに完全に価格が大きく下落することを期待していない。
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39252500/fed-meeting-preview-economists-predict-steady-rates-in-june-fewer-cuts-ahead">Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5月のインフレ報告書のプレビュー：経済学者の予想</h3>
<ul>
<li>Econodayが収集した経済学者の予想によると、全体の見出しの年間インフレ率は3.4％で横ばいになると予想されている。</li>
<li>総合的なCPIは、4月の0.3％の上昇から0.1％上昇すると予想されている。</li>
<li>食品およびエネルギー価格の変動を除いた年間のインフレ率は、0.3％の月次の上昇と、4月から変わらない3.6％で推移すると予想されている。</li>
</ul>
ゴールドマンサックスのエコノミスト マヌエル・アベカシス氏は、コンシューマーエレクトロニクスやパーソナルケアなどの分野でのインフレ率の低下が報告されると予想しており、5月のデータに反映されるという見方だ。彼はまた、自動車保険料の持続的な上昇も予測しているが、ペースは徐々に遅くなり、家賃やオーナーの同等の家賃（OER）のインフレ率は横ばいで推移すると予想している。
アベカシス氏は、「今後、2024年の終わりまでの数ヶ月間、月次コアCPIインフレ率は0.2〜0.3％の範囲内に留まると予想している。 2024年12月の年間コアCPIインフレ率は3.5％、コアPCEインフレ率は2.8％と予測している」と述べた。
著名なベテラン市場アナリストのエド・ヤーデニ氏は、5月のCPI報告書が依然としてインフレが抑制されていることを確認すると見ている。
「クリーブランド連銀のインフレ・ナウキャスティング・モデルによると、5月のヘッドラインおよびコアCPIは、前年比でそれぞれ3.36％および3.55％上昇し、これは2021年4月以来の最低の年間コアインフレ率読書となる」とYardeni氏は述べている。
ヤーデニ氏は、住居のインフレ率と中古車の価格の低下を予想しており、自動車関連の他の消費者価格が安定することを期待している。
米国銀行の経済学者マイケル・ゲープン氏は、5月の報告書が4月の好調な推移を継続すると見ている。
ゲープン氏は、「1月から3月までの月次コアCPIインフレ率が0.4％と平均した後、4月には方向性が変わった。 我々は5月のコアCPIとヘッドラインCPIがそれぞれ0.3％と0.1％の上昇となり、年間インフレ率はそれぞれ4.6％と34％で4月と同じになると予想している」とゲープン氏は語った。
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">過去のCPI報告書に対する市場の反応</h3>
2024年5月15日にCPI報告書が発表され、これは、株式、債券、金、および投機的資産を巡る株式市場の反発を引き起こした。
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500は、この日に SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）で1.2％上昇した。</li>
<li>テクヘビーなナスダック100は、 Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）で1.6％上昇した。</li>
<li>長期国債利回りは下がり、 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>）は1.4％上昇した。</li>
<li>金は SPDR Gold Trust（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）で1.3％上昇した。</li>
<li>ビットコイン（CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は7.4％上昇し、2か月間で最高の1日となり、今年の最高の3番目の読書を記録した。</li>
<li>Invesco DB USDインデックスブリッシュファンドETF（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>）がドルの指標として下落し、0.7％下がり、2023年12月中旬以来の最悪の1日の性能を記録した。</li>
</ul>

中東で再び緊張が高まっており、イスラエルの戦争内閣は国の対応を熟慮するために月曜日に開会し、<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">市場に衝撃を与えました。</a>
イスラエルがイランに対する報復策を検討しているという見出しにより、株式市場は急落し、金の価格が急騰しました。
何が起こったのか：チャンネル12は、イスラエルの内閣がイランに「明確で力強い」対応することを決定したと発表し、これはイスラエルが「このような大規模な攻撃を受けても無反応でいることは許さない」というイスラエルの信号を意味しています。
イスラエルの国防大臣ヨアブ・ガランは、イランがイスラエルに対する直接攻撃を繰り返すことを耐えかねると米国国防長官ロイド・オースティンに伝えましたが、この対応は中東全体を巻き込むような地域全体の紛争に発展することを回避します。 
国家安全保障会議報道官のジョン・カービーは、イランの攻撃を「壮大で恥ずべき失敗」と表現し、今日の「世界の多くはイスラエルとともに立っている」と強調しました。
先週日曜日、G7首脳会議は、イランのミサイル計画に対する新たな制裁を検討しており、イスラエルを支持しつつ、さらなるエスカレーションを防ぎたいと考えています。 
バランスのとれたアプローチを提唱する国務長官アントニー・ブリンケンは、「力と知恵は同じコインの異なる面でなければならない」と述べ、状況を慎重にかつ断固として処理することを示唆しました。ブリンケンはまた、地域のパートナーとの継続的な協議を確認し、外交努力を約束します。
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter">
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
米国はイスラエルを支援することを約束しています。イランによるイスラエルへの前代未聞の攻撃に続き、我々は外交的な対応を調整し、エスカレーションを防ごうとしています。 <a href="https://t.co/9gW2gC8Y5s">pic.twitter.com/9gW2gC8Y5s</a>
&mdash; Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) <a href="https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1779940420174155836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">2024年4月15日</a></blockquote>
</div>
</figure>
一方、中国は国連で、イランの行動をイスラエルの侵略に対する正当防衛として擁護する一方で、対照的な意見を述べました。 「イランには自衛権があります。イスラエルは国際法に違反してイラン領事館を攻撃しました。イランは反応し、自国の法的権利を行使しました」と述べました。 
なぜ重要なのか：米欧の同盟国は、世界的な影響を持つような地域全体の戦争の拡大を避けるようイスラエルに何度も警告しています。 
人的被害の観点でのみならず、イランとイスラエルの間の戦争の経済的影響は、世界経済にとって極めて破壊的であると言えます。
最初のリスクの1つは、原油価格の上昇に関連するものです。イランの原油生産は現在、世界供給の約3.4mb/d（3.3％）に上昇しています。
ゴールドマン・サックスによると、現在世界の17%の原油生産が流れているホルムズ海峡の原油の流れが途絶すると、1か月で原油価格が20%上昇し、途絶が数か月間続くと、最終的には2倍になります。 
市場の反応 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）は米国東部時間3:00pm現在、1.2％下落し、2か月ぶりの最低水準でのクローズを予想しています。
先週金曜日の損失率1.8％に追随した形で、米国株中心のInvesco QQQ トラスト（NASDAQ：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）は1.6％低下しました。 
不動産セレクトセクター SPDR トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>）は2.1％ダウンし、リアルタイムで総合株指数において最大の損失を記録しました。 
仮想通貨市場は一段と悪化し、仮想通貨は大損を報告しました。 ビットコイン（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は6％下落し、62400ドルとなりました。 イーサリアム（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>）は、4.1％下落し、3024ドルとなりました。
一方、ゴールド（金）やシルバーは急激に上昇し、投資家たちはこぞって安全な資産に逃避しました。
SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）は1.5％上昇し、史上最高のクローズを記録しました。 シルバーは、2月2021年以来の最高値でのクローズを目指し、2.9％上昇しました、というのも iShares シルバー トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）が報じています。
原油は、米国の早い時間帯の損失を取り消し、西テキサス中間原油はバレル85ドルを超える急騰を見せました。米国石油基金（United States Oil Fund）（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>）は0.1％上昇しました。 
チャート：2024年4月15日におけるSLV、GLD、USO、SPY、QQQ、BTCの株価
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-292577" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
今すぐ読む: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38239994/financial-markets-on-edge-as-oil-and-gold-prices-could-soar-amid-rising-israel-iran-tensions">イスラエルとイランの緊張が高まる中、原油と金の価格が急騰する可能性があるため、金融市場は緊迫している</a>
写真：シャッターストック
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