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iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:ITB), 空売り情報

iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF

Consumer Cyclical

Industrials

Basic Materials

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Home Construction Index (the Underlying Index), which measures the performance of the home construction sector of the U.S. equity market, as defined by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC (the Index Provider or SPDJI). The Underlying Index includes companies that are constructors of residential homes, including manufacturers of mobile and prefabricated homes; manufacturers and distributors of furniture; retailers and wholesalers concentrating on the sale of home improvement products; and producers of materials used in the construction and refurbishment of buildings and structures. The companies selected for inclusion in the Underlying Index must meet minimum market capitalization requirements, as determined by the Index Provider. The Underlying Index includes large-, mid- or small-capitalization companies and may change over time. As of March 31, 2024, a significant portion of the Underlying Index is represented by securities of companies in the consumer discretionary, home construction and industrials industries or sectors. The components of the Underlying Index are likely to change over time.

D.R. Horton Inc - Common

Lennar Corp. Class A

Pultegroup Inc.

Nvr Inc Common Stock Usd 0.01

Sherwin Williams Co/The

Topbuild Corp

Lowes Cos., Inc.

Toll Brothers Inc

Home Depot Inc/The

Builders Firstsource Inc

Lennox International Inc

iShares US Home Construction ETF

Wedbush analyst Jay McCanless reiterated a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/len/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">Neutral rating</a> on Lennar Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>) ahead of its first quarter <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">FY25 earnings release on March 20</a>.
For the first quarter, the analyst estimates EPS of $1.70 versus the Refinitiv consensus estimate of $1.75 and revenue of $7.5 billion (+3% YoY vs. cons. of +2% YoY). The estimates do not account for the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43625476" rel="noreferrer noopener">recent&nbsp;</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43625476" rel="noreferrer noopener">Millrose Properties</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43625476" rel="noreferrer noopener"> spin-off.</a>
Also, McCanless expects a 2% YoY decrease in orders to 17.8k homes for the quarter, in line with the consensus.
The analyst sees total closings of 17.2k, which is at par with Lennar&#8217;s guidance and the consensus estimate.
Also, the housing gross margin is expected at 19.1%, down 270bps YoY and in line with the company&#8217;s guidance, adds the analyst.
The analyst says that the gross margin and EPS estimates for the quarter are below consensus due to the expectation that mortgage rate volatility will likely impact Lennar&#8217;s housing gross margin and earnings negatively.
McCanless says he expects a strategy update from management as the Millrose spin-off is completed, potentially covering topics like equity investments in public stocks, Opendoor, and others.
Also, the analyst expects to get an operational update on the Millrose spin-off and any associated deal-related expenses.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF&nbsp;(BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and John Hancock Fundamental All Cap Core ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JHAC#NYSE">JHAC</a>).
Price Action: LEN shares are up 0.15% at $118.68 at the last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/03/44383094/bofa-securities-analyst-projects-millrose-spin-off-to-weigh-on-lennars-earnings-cuts-price-target" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BofA Securities Analyst Projects Millrose Spin-Off To Weigh On Lennar&#8217;s Earnings, Cuts Price Target</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Analyst Color

Equities

Large Cap

News

Reiteration

Analyst Ratings

Trading Ideas

iShares Dow Jones US Homenstruction Index Fund

JHAC

Analyst Takes A Cautious View On Lennar Ahead Of Q1 Earnings - Here's Why

The U.S. housing market saw a notable rebound in February, with single-family homebuilding jumping 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.108 million units, according to Reuters. This is welcome news for investors after a sluggish January, but does it mean <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">homebuilding ETFs</a> are poised for a turnaround? Let&#8217;s break it down.
Homebuilder ETFs: A Rough Year
If you've been holding homebuilder ETFs, it's likely been a bumpy ride:
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>): Shares are down over 11% over the last 12 months. Assets under management (AUM) are also down around 20% in the same duration.
SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>): Shares are over 6% lower since last year. Also, AUM dipped almost 28% since March 2024.
Also Read: <a href="https://benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/03/44200622/lennar-kb-home-face-tougher-housing-market-goldman-sachs-cuts-forecast-amid-slowing-demand">Lennar &amp; KB Home Face Tougher Housing Market, Goldman Sachs Cuts Forecast Amid Slowing Demand</a>
Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NAIL#NYSE">NAIL</a>): Shares dropped over 48% because of its leveraged exposure, while the AUM dropped 5% over the same time.
Higher mortgage rates, expensive housing prices, and uncertainty in the economy have damped the sector, making it hard for builders of homes to survive. NAIL&#8217;s decrease, a leveraged ETF, shows the level of volatility that has characterized the industry.
Notably, in December last year, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42488357/homebuilders-2025-outlook-more-cautious-less-constructive-analyst-says">JPMorgan analysts adopted a cautious stance</a> for 2025, citing concerns over affordability, interest rates, and employment growth in the homebuilders market. Analyst Michael Rihault said home price growth is likely to moderate due to rising existing and new home supply in key markets. Also, JPMorgan foresees downside risks to gross margins, home sales pace, and return on equity, painting a challenging outlook for the sector.
A Solid Rebound, But One With Challenges
The housing industry has been fighting several headwinds—increasing building costs, labor shortages, and economic uncertainty, according to report by Reuters. President Donald Trump&#8216;s tariffs on Chinese imports have risen to 20%, and fresh tariffs on steel and aluminum are putting pressure. Builders are also facing labor shortages, fueled by immigration crackdowns.
On the other hand, there are a few encouraging signs. Mortgage rates, which rose as high as 7% at the beginning of the year, have begun to fall. More affordable rates would enhance affordability, and thus maybe demand. However, with building permits for upcoming construction down 0.2% in February, it is obvious that developers remain cautious.
Should You Invest In Homebuilder ETFs Now?
Although the industry is picking up, it is not clear if this bounce is the beginning of a long-term recovery or merely a short-term fluctuation. Investors need to look at their risk tolerance before they invest in homebuilder ETFs.
For risk-averse investors, ITB and XHB may provide exposure to the industry without too much volatility.
For aggressive investors, NAIL might be attractive, but its leveraged status involves large fluctuations in value.
The Bottom Line
The American housing market is precarious. The February boost in housing starts is a good sign, but tariffs, labor bottlenecks, and uncertainty are still in the air. Although homebuilder ETFs have faltered, things can turn around if mortgage rates keep falling and demand picks up.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/03/44382780/3-best-performing-semiconductor-etfs-since-last-gtc-and-why-this-time-is-different">3 Best-Performing Semiconductor ETFs Since Last GTC And Why This Time Is Different</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Sector ETFs

ETFs

Real Estate

NAIL

Homebuilder ETFs Await Clearer Signals Amid Housing Market Uncertainty

BofA Securities analyst Rafe Jadrosich updated the price forecast for Lennar Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>) to reflect the impact of the weak housing market and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/len/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the </a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/len/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Millrose Properties</a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/len/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> spin-off</a>.
The analyst slashed the price forecast to $130 from $140 while retaining a Neutral rating.
Last month, the company completed the spin-off, contributing&nbsp;$5.5 billion&nbsp;in land <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/n43625476/lennar-completes-spin-off-of-millrose-properties" rel="noreferrer noopener">assets and&nbsp;$1.0 billion in cash</a>.
Jadrosich noted Lennar will pay Millrose an annual option fee of 8.5%, which is expected to be reflected in the cost of goods sold.
The analyst projected a modest net income headwind from Millrose in 2025 (~2%), which was expected to gradually rise to a 6% headwind by 2027 as the land delivered accrued more interest.
Additionally, Jadrosich expected a 30 basis point headwind to gross margin in 2025, with this impact progressively increasing to 85 basis points by 2027.
The analyst wrote Millrose spin-off lowers their tangible book value (TBV) per share forecast by approximately 17%, but it boosts the analyst&#8217;s return on tangible equity (ROTE) forecast by 240bps, 260bps, and 270bps for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.
Meanwhile, Jadrosich expected stronger ROTE tailwinds after 2025 due to the timing of share repurchases.
The analyst projected a $942 million drag on free cash flow (FCF) in 2025 due to the Millrose, which includes a $442 million option payment and a $500 million land deposit related to the spin.
After this initial cash flow headwind, FCF generation is expected to improve with faster inventory turns, added the analyst.
Due to the elevated FCF headwind in 2025, Jadrosich cut the repurchase forecast down to $750 million (from $2.2 billion) but anticipated a significant increase to $2.7 billion in 2026 and $3.0 billion in 2027.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and John Hancock Fundamental All Cap Core ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JHAC#NYSE">JHAC</a>).
LEN Price Action: Lennar shares are down 0.33% at $118.57 at publication Tuesday.
Read Next:
 • <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44257955/analyst-turns-cautious-on-lennar-lowers-expectations-as-risks-mount-in-housing-sector" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Lennar Analyst Moves To Sidelines, Downgrades Stock And Awaits Better Entry Point</a>
Courtesy: Lennar Corp.

Price Target

BofA Securities Analyst Projects Millrose Spin-Off To Weigh On Lennar's Earnings, Cuts Price Target

Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods analyst Jade J. Rahmani downgraded Lennar Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>) from Outperform to Market Perform and reduced <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/LEN/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">the price forecast from $152 to $141.</a>
The analyst writes that the company&#8217;s valuation is now comparable to large-cap peers, with potential downside risks to estimates.
The analyst expects a challenging Spring selling season and growing risks to gross margin due to the tough macro environment and uncertainty <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/n43625476/lennar-completes-spin-off-of-millrose-properties" rel="noreferrer noopener">from the </a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/n43625476/lennar-completes-spin-off-of-millrose-properties" rel="noreferrer noopener">Millrose Properties</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/n43625476/lennar-completes-spin-off-of-millrose-properties" rel="noreferrer noopener"> spin-off</a>.
Consequently, Rahmani stated that he had adopted a more cautious approach towards the company. The analyst moves to the sidelines and awaits a better entry point.
While the analyst still sees the company as well-positioned due to several factors, such as its low financial leverage, potential ROE upside from the Millrose spin-off, and capital efficiency initiatives, the current housing market presents significant challenges.
The analyst cut the 2025-2026 estimates by 3%-4% to $11.89 and $13.44.
Rahmani continues to see order growth of 3% &#8211; 7% for the period. Meanwhile, the analyst revised estimates for deliveries growth to 5% &#8211; 6% (vs. prior estimates of 5% &#8211; 7%), gross margin to be 20.0% &#8211; 20.3% (vs. 20.3% &#8211; 20.5% earlier), and SG&amp;A to 7.6% &#8211; 7.7% (vs. 7.6% prior).
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF&nbsp;(BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and John Hancock Exchange-Traded Fund Trust John Hancock Fundamental All Cap Core ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JHAC#NYSE">JHAC</a>).
Price Action: LEN shares are down 3.12% at $121.32 at the last check Tuesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/03/44200622/lennar-kb-home-face-tougher-housing-market-goldman-sachs-cuts-forecast-amid-slowing-demand" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Lennar &amp; KB Home Face Tougher Housing Market, Goldman Sachs Cuts Forecast Amid Slowing Demand</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Downgrades

Lennar Analyst Moves To Sidelines, Downgrades Stock And Awaits Better Entry Point

Seaport Global analyst Kenneth Zener upgraded PulteGroup (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PHM#NYSE">PHM</a>) from Sell to Neutral and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/phm/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">announced a price forecast of&nbsp;$100</a>.
The analyst writes that his ratings begin with long-term investors&#8217; benchmark relative weighting decisions, analyzing past cycle stock performance by quartiles (cycle time divided by 4).
Historical data suggests that absolute declines are still likely, but the sector&#8217;s risk-to-return profile flattens, providing an opportunity for early-cycle positioning with asymmetric returns when the cycle turns, adds the analyst.
The analyst says the sector&#8217;s historical decline of 41% over the past 21 cycles, with the upper half of stocks falling 24%, while the lower half dropped 49%. Returns in the third quartile fell 26%, with another 15% decline into the trough.
Zener expects the second quarter of FY25 to start to fall by 15%-20% in the first half of 2025 to lower the new supply.
The analyst says that starts of 993k (2-mth avg) vs. Trough 847k are poised to accelerate declines.
New Under-construction / Complete 40% above LT levels (390k vs ~280k), per the analyst.
The analyst remains cautious that sustained GDP growth will be benign to inflation.
In January, the company reported&nbsp;fourth-quarter revenues of $4.92 billion, topped the consensus of $4.635 billion, and adjusted EPS of $3.50,&nbsp;beating <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43336230/why-pultegroup-stocks-are-rising-in-premarket-today" rel="noreferrer noopener">the consensus estimate of $3.27</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and SPDR Series Trust SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>).
Price Action: PHM shares are up 0.74% at $106.76 at the last check Thursday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44164783/logitech-projects-steady-growth-in-fy26-announces-2-billion-share-buyback-plan-more" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Logitech Projects Steady Growth In 2026, Announces $2 Billion Share Buyback Plan</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock.

Upgrades

Analyst Predicts Moderate Decline In Housing Starts For 2025, Upgrades PulteGroup

TopBuild Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLD#NYSE">BLD</a>) shares are trading lower premarket on Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter sales of $1.31 billion <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/g43936044/topbuild-reports-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-2024-results-provides-2025-outlook-and-announces-new-" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">in line with the consensus</a>.
<ul>
<li>Sales increased 2.0% Y/Y, led by a 6.6% Y/Y rise in the Specialty Distribution segment. </li>
<li>The Installation segment was relatively flat Y/Y in the quarter.</li>
<li>Adjusted gross margin contracted to 29.9% from 30.4% a year ago quarter, while adjusted EBITDA Margin improved to 19.7% from 19.6% in the prior-year quarter.</li>
<li>Adjusted EPS&nbsp;of $5.13&nbsp;exceeded <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">the consensus of $5.05</a>.</li>
<li>As of Dec. 31, cash and cash equivalent stood at $400.3 million.</li>
</ul>
Buyback: TopBuild repurchased 134,872 shares totaling $47.2 million.
The board authorized the repurchase of up to $1.0 billion of the company&#8217;s shares, bringing the total repurchase availability to $1.2 billion.
This includes the $188.1 million remaining from the prior authorization as of December 31, 2024.
Outlook: TopBuild projects FY25 sales of $5.05 billion-$5.35 billion, vs. previous estimate of $5.465 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">between $925 million and $1.075 billion</a>.
TopBuild CEO Robert Buck listed tailwinds for the business: 
<ul>
<li>Low housing inventory</li>
<li>Population growth</li>
<li>Demographic shifts</li>
<li>Ongoing initiatives to reduce energy consumption and decrease utility costs, and manage emissions.</li>
</ul>
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>).
Price Action: BLD shares are down 2.96% at $293.11 premarket at the last check Tuesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/11/42250648/plug-power-evgo-among-jpmorgans-top-sustainable-picks-for-2025" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Plug Power, EVgo Among JPMorgan&#8217;s Top Sustainable Picks For 2025</a></li>
</ul>

Earnings

Mid Cap

Guidance

Buybacks

Movers

TopBuild Stock Dips After Reporting Mixed Q4 Results, Guides FY25 Sales Below Consensus

The January Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected with inflation hot to start<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43656846/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-in-january-chills-interest-rate-cut-hopes"> 2025.</a>
What Happened: CPI rose 3% on a year-over-year basis in January, missing expectations for 2.9%. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/cpi">CPI was up</a> 0.5% on an adjusted basis from December to January, up from 0.4% in the previous report.
Rising inflation figures have now pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut to December 2025.
The 0.5% <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf">monthly </a>CPI figure was the largest increase since August 2023 and it adds to consumers&#8217; worries for 2025 on the heels of potential tariffs that could increase prices on everyday goods and services.
Within the CPI report, housing data showed rising costs. Rent of primary residence rose 0.3% in January and rose 4.2% on a year-over-year basis.
Owners' equivalent of residences was also up 0.3% in January and is now up 4.6% on a year-over-year basis.
While the housing figures rose in January, rent price inflation is cooling. Comerica Bank&#8217;s chief economist Bill Adams said the cooling rent price inflation was the "one piece of good news for consumers" in the CPI report.
"The year-over-year increase of rent of primary residence was the coolest since February 2022," Adams said, adding that the report showed rent increases could show relief in the rest of 2025.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy rose 0.4% in January and is up 3.3% on a year-over-year basis, rising from 3.2% year-over-year in the last report.
Economist Joseph Brusuelas highlighted the rising rents and housing costs in his breakdown of the CPI data.
"Take a look at rents. They are up 4.6% from one year ago. Housing costs up 3.8%, rent of primary residence 4.2% and shelter 4.4%. Even lodging away from home is up 3%," Brusuelas tweeted.
Read Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43660298/inflation-spike-sparks-dollar-rally-yields-jump-while-bitcoin-stocks-slide-as-interest-rate-cut-doubts-grow"> Inflation Spike Sparks Dollar Rally: Yields Jump, Bitcoin And Stocks Slide As Interest Rate Cut Doubts Grow</a>
Why It's Important: Ahead of the CPI report, President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates. With rising inflation and a worse than expected report, the Federal Reserve could delay further rate cuts.
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee the Fed<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43628752/feds-powell-reiterates-no-hurry-to-cut-interest-rates-as-inflation-remains-somewhat-elevated"> was in no hurry</a> to adjust interest rates. Powell cited continued inflation as the Fed works towards a 2% inflation goal.
"Inflation remains somewhat elevated," Powell said.
While the Fed has cut rates in recent months, Powell said "we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance."
Mortgage rates do not always go down when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but the two items often trade in pair. With concerns that the Fed will not cut rates again until late 2025, mortgage rates could face pressure and consumers looking to buy homes could be forced to wait for lower rates and rent or pay the higher price.
Mortgage rates sat at 6.9% for a 30-year fixed mortgage at the time of writing.
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index, is down 0.6% to $601.51 on Wednesday.
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) is down 1.5% to $90.65 on Wednesday.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) is down 3.1% to $100.49 on Wednesday.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/01/42963973/housing-demand-falls-as-average-30-year-mortgage-rate-above-7">Housing Demand Falls As Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate Above 7%</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Inflation Rises In January, Housing Costs Up, Adding To Consumers' 2025 Concerns

Hedge funds have always been closely watched for cues on investment opportunities. Although their strategies can be complex, understanding the trends they're bullish on can offer important insights for retail investors. 
Siddharth Singhai, CIO of value-based global hedge fund IronHold Capital, recently shared his perspective on sectors worth watching, and how <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs can help investors</a> capitalize on these themes. 
From automobiles and homebuilding to mining and AI, here are some ETFs based on his insights:
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Automobile Industry On Third Gear</h1>
One area drawing attention is the U.S. auto industry. With protectionist policies likely to intensify under the Trump administration, automakers such as General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>), Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), and Stellantis NV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>) stand to benefit significantly, according to Singhai. 
Possible tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could set the playing field for these companies, making the U.S. auto sector one to keep a close eye on. 
&#8220;We do anticipate a clear protectionism policy in place for U.S. auto, specifically the big three: General Motors, Ford and Stellantis. Simply because if the tariffs were not put in place against Chinese EVs, U.S. automakers would be at about a 30% to 40% cost disadvantage, which would essentially mean the end of U.S. auto as we know it,&#8221; said Singhai.
However, as a word of caution, he said that one should be wary of auto companies that might face trouble in the face of EV revolution. 
&#8220;We believe U.S. autos and U.S. auto parts suppliers, who have been hit badly due to the excess inventories prevailing in the U.S. auto industry in general, could be a good hunting ground, potentially. Although investors should be focused on auto suppliers that are probably not going to get disrupted by the EV transition,&#8221; Singhai said.
For investors, ETFs like the First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles &amp; Tech (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CARZ#NASDAQ">CARZ</a>) offer exposure to the expected surge in domestic automotive manufacturing. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.7% and among its holdings are Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43236579/chinas-deepseek-ai-rattles-tech-stocks">China&#8217;s DeepSeek AI Rattles Tech Stocks, Analyst Ives Says Market Plunge &#8216;Golden Buying Opportunity&#8217;</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Home Building Industry In Focus</h1>
Homebuilders are another promising area, according to Singhai. Despite overvaluation concerns in the equity market, the housing sector continues to experience a significant supply-demand imbalance. Years of undersupply following the 2008 financial crisis created the opportunity for select homebuilding companies to thrive.
&#8220;U.S. market is extremely overvalued at the moment, and there are not that many sectors that could be happy hunting grounds for hedge funds or value investors like us. In general, homebuilders, some of them, seem to be still attractively positioned given the great imbalance between supply and demand, mainly because of years of undersupply post-Great Recession in 2008-&#8217;09. So we believe homebuilders, some of them, present very compelling opportunities,&#8221; Singhai noted.
Investors interested in this space might consider ETFs such as the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>), which focuses on leading players in the sector, such as Builders Firstsource, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLDR#NYSE">BLDR</a>) and Lowes Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOW#NYSE">LOW</a>). The expense ratio that this ETF carries is 0.39%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Mining — Hidden Gems To Look For</h1>
Mining is another area that stands out. Many companies in this space, especially low-cost producers, are undervalued and largely overlooked by the market. These firms could see strong performance with a rebound in global demand for raw materials.
&#8220;Mining companies also seem to be hit badly and ignored by investors. You could find some really good mining companies that are the lowest cost producers in their respective industries that could prove to be high performers over the next two to three years,&#8221; Singhai noted from his expertise.
ETFs such as the SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) invest in a range of mining companies and could be a good fit for investors looking to capture growth in this area. The ETF carries an expense ratio of 0.35% and holdings in Hecla Mining Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HL#NYSE">HL</a>) and Reliance Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RS#NYSE">RS</a>), among others.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">AI Trends To Watch</h1>
Singhai also touched upon the continued interest in semiconductors and AI. While these industries are undeniably buzzing, he warns against impulsive investing. Many companies in this space are trading at lofty valuations that may not be sustainable. 
&#8220;I do foresee a lot of hedge funds diving right into semiconductors and AI stocks. I also believe more retail investors will seriously consider allocating capital to this particular sector moving forward as well. However, it is ripe with extreme bubble-like valuations. The marquee names in the AI industry are trading for as high as 20 to 50 times revenue, which to us seems excessive even given the promise of AI,&#8221; he said.
Singhai also added, &#8220;Not all AI companies can capture 50% of the market or even 30% of the market, and if they fail to do so, they cannot foreseeably justify their current valuations. This leads us to the ultimate conclusion that there will be a few big winners and many, many losers within the industry. As such, most AI companies do not deserve their expensive, hefty valuations.&#8221;
For those interested in exploring the AI-driven growth story, a diversified ETF like the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>) offers exposure to leading players like NVDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Broadcom Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) while mitigating the risks of betting on individual stocks. And the cost of investing in this ETF is also reasonable at 0.35%.
All that said, Singhai emphasized the route of ETFs should be seen as tools for diversification and steady returns — not as a shortcut to mimicking hedge fund performance. It will be wise for retail investors to focus on sectors with solid fundamentals rather than on speculative trends.
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Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Hedge Funds

AVGO

BLDR

CARZ

NVDA

STLA

TSLA

IronHold Capital CIO Reveals Trends Hedge Funds Track: 4 ETFs To Watch

D.R. Horton, Inc.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>) shares traded higher after the company <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/01/b43092125/d-r-horton-inc-americas-builder-reports-fiscal-2025-first-quarter-earnings-and-declares-quarterly-" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported&nbsp;first-quarter&nbsp;results</a>.
Sales fell&nbsp;1%&nbsp;year-over-year to&nbsp;$7.61&nbsp;billion, beating the consensus of&nbsp;$7.08 billion. EPS was&nbsp;$2.61,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">beating the consensus of&nbsp;$2.44.</a>
Net sales orders fell 1% Y/Y to 17,837&nbsp;homes and&nbsp;decreased&nbsp;2% in value to $6.7&nbsp;billion.
Homebuilding revenue declined 2% Y/Y&nbsp;to&nbsp;$7.2&nbsp;billion. Homes closed in the quarter fell 1%&nbsp;Y/Y to 19,059&nbsp;homes.
Sales order backlog of homes under contract as of December 31, 2024, decreased&nbsp;21%&nbsp;to 11,003&nbsp;homes and&nbsp;21%&nbsp;in value to&nbsp;$4.3&nbsp;billion.
D.R. Horton had 36,200&nbsp;homes in inventory, of which 25,700&nbsp;were unsold as of December 31, 2024.
Return on equity was&nbsp;19.1%&nbsp;for FY24, and return on assets stood at 13.4%. Operating cash flow stood at $646.7 million&nbsp;in the quarter.
As of December 31, 2024, the cash balance was&nbsp;$3.0&nbsp;billion, and the available capacity on its credit facilities was&nbsp;$3.5 billion, for a total liquidity of&nbsp;$6.5&nbsp;billion.
D.R. Horton repurchased 6.8&nbsp;million shares for&nbsp;$1.1 billion during the quarter. The company&#8217;s remaining stock repurchase authorization as of December-end&nbsp;was&nbsp;$2.5&nbsp;billion.
Subsequent to year-end, the company declared the quarterly dividend of&nbsp;$0.40&nbsp;per share, payable on February 14, to shareholders of record as of February 7, 2025.
FY25&nbsp;Outlook: D.R. Horton reiterated its revenue of&nbsp;$36.0 billion&nbsp;–&nbsp;$37.5 billion&nbsp;versus <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">the&nbsp;consensus of&nbsp;$37.16 billion</a>.
It expects homes closed to be 90,000 homes-92,000 homes for the year. DHI projects FY25 operating cash flow to be greater than fiscal 2024
The company revised share repurchases outlook to $2.6 billion-$2.8 billion from ~$2.4 billion earlier for FY25. The company expects&nbsp;dividend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/41598041" rel="noreferrer noopener">payments of around&nbsp;$500 million</a>.
David Auld, Executive Chairman, said, &#8220;Although the level of new and existing home inventories has increased from historically low levels, the supply of homes at affordable price points is generally still limited, and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable.&#8221;
&#8220;Despite continued affordability challenges and competitive market conditions, incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns have helped to address affordability and spur demand.&#8221;
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and&nbsp;Parnassus Income Funds Parnassus Value Select ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PRVS#NYSE">PRVS</a>).
Price Action:&nbsp;DHI shares are up 3.88% at $153.39 premarket at the last check Tuesday.
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Dividends

PRVS

D.R. Horton Q1: Earnings Beat Despite Soft Housing Market, FY25 Outlook Reiterated

A flurry of new data is in and the housing market is flashing mixed signals from builders, buyers and analysts. Here&#8217;s what <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/25/01/42963973/housing-demand-falls-as-average-30-year-mortgage-rate-above-7">you need to know.</a>
The Data: The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development December<a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html"> housing data</a> released Friday was mixed with housing starts beating expectations while housing completions declined. 
Housing starts jumped 15.8% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.499 million, surpassing the estimate of 1.33 million and rising sharply from November's revised rate of 1.294 million. However, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December declined 0.7% from November's rate of 1.493 million and fell 3.1% compared to December 2023.
Meanwhile, housing completions fell 4.8% in December to 1.544 million, potentially signaling that builders face challenges in finishing projects. Annual housing completions in 2024 rose 12.3% to 1.627 million. 
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/01/43041254/unitedhealth-ceo-highlights-hospitals-doctors-pharmas-role-in-soaring-health-care-costs">UnitedHealth CEO Highlights Hospitals, Doctors, Pharma&#8217;s Role In Soaring Health Care Costs</a>&nbsp;
According to <a href="https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index">data released</a> Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo, U.S. homebuilders lowered their six-month outlook on prospective sales as buyers are discouraged by rising mortgage rates which crossed over the 7% mark last week.&nbsp;
However, homebuilder sentiment rose in January on optimism about current sales and prospective buyer traffic. The survey also attributed the rise in sentiment to the anticipation of likely more favorable regulatory conditions under the incoming Trump administration. 
Expert Ideas: Analysts from JPMorgan said on Friday that the firm remains optimistic on housing spending, despite surging mortgage rates.&nbsp;
The analysts view consumers as in the "acceptance phase" when it comes to interest rates and expect existing home sales to grind modestly higher, up from 40-year lows.&nbsp;
"More specifically, we believe 30-year mortgage rates being in the high 6 range is ‘okay,'" JPMorgan analysts wrote.&nbsp;
Stocks To Watch: Investors can track the U.S. homebuilders and construction through the IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and the SPDR Series Trust SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>). 
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This image was generated using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

Econ #s

Housing Market: Builders Forge Ahead As Buyers Enter 'Acceptance Phase' On Rates

Fixed-rate mortgage rates have steadily declined, marking a third consecutive week of decrease. Freddie Mac's data shows that 30-year <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mortgages">fixed-rate mortgage</a> now averages 6.60%, significantly lower than the 6.95% rate from a year ago.
"The combination of mortgage rate declines, firm consumer income growth, and a bullish stock market have increased homebuyer demand in recent weeks. While the outlook for the housing market is improving, the improvement is limited given that homebuyers continue to face stiff affordability headwinds," <a href="https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mortgage-rates-continue-drop-3">noted</a> Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist.
Fixed-rate mortgages are crucial for many homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers because they offer predictability. Since the interest rate remains constant throughout the loan term, borrowers know their monthly payments regardless of market conditions, making for easier financial planning and buying peace of mind. If these rates continue to drop, this development could make homeownership more accessible, stimulating sales.
<a href="https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales">Recent data</a> reveals that the U.S. housing market is showing signs of recovery. Existing home sales rose 3.5% in October 2024, rebounding from a 14-year low and surpassing market expectations.
However, the median home sales price increased by 4% to $407,200, outpacing November&#8217;s 2.7% inflation rate. While Khater warned about these dynamics, home prices typically rise faster than inflation, which is one reason they were excluded from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation in 1983.
Falling mortgage rates support optimism for the market, which suffered high borrowing costs earlier this year. Furthermore, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted increased inventory could further bolster home sales, with job growth and economic expansion supporting growing housing demand.
Still, the home construction market offered mixed results, as shown by broad market ETFs. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) returned 14.66% year-to-date, while the SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>) fared better at 23.06%. The Invesco Building &amp; Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKB#NYSE">PKB</a>) outperformed with 31.86% — however, it is worth noting that it is by far the smallest and most expensive of the group.
Two notable stocks in the sector performed similarly. KB Home (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBH#NYSE">KBH</a>) has clocked a solid yet underperforming 18.52% return year-to-date. It trades at 8.9x its earnings, significantly lagging the peer average 21.1x.  Meanwhile, Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TOL#NYSE">TOL</a>) outperformed, climbing 37.39% year-to-date. Still, the firm trades cheaper than its peers at 8.8x its earnings. Following the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/earnings-beats/24/12/42418066/toll-brothers-investors-may-be-disappointed-with-guidance-analysts-say-after-q4-earnings">latest earnings results</a>, Oppenheimer and JPMorgan reiterated an Outperform and Overweight rating, citing robust demand but warning about the gross-margin guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2025.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Economics

PowerShares ETF Trust Dynamic Building &nstruction Portfolio

Mortgage Rates Drop Present Opportunities For Homebuilders

JP Morgan analyst Christopher Horvers maintained an Overweight rating for Lowe&#8217;s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOW#NYSE">LOW</a>) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/LOW/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">with a price forecast of $300.</a>
Yesterday, the company highlighted its near-term and long-term financial targets at its 2024<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42445818/lowes-targets-1-billion-in-annual-savings-and-expands-store-footprint-to-drive-future-growth" rel="noreferrer noopener"> Analyst and Investor Conference</a>.
Lowe&#8217;s reaffirmed its outlook, projecting total sales between $83 billion and $83.5 billion<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener"> (consensus estimate: $83.34 billion)</a>.
The company expects comparable sales to decline by 3.0% to 3.5% and adjusted EPS&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/42060077/lowes-q3-earnings-revenue-and-eps-beat-but-comp-sales-fall-amid-softness-in-bigger-ticket-diy-discretionary-demand" rel="noreferrer noopener">of $11.80 – $11.90 (consensus estimate: $11.89)</a>.
Lowe&#8217;s plans to unveil its next phase of Perpetual Productivity Improvement (PPI) initiatives, projected to deliver approximately $1 billion in annual cost savings.
The analyst writes that Lowe&#8217;s Analyst Day marked a subtle pivot, signaling that the infrastructure built since CEO Marvin Ellison&#8217;s 2018 arrival is now in place.
The analyst says they continue to favor LOW and write that with the shift to positive comps after three years of pullforward spending and housing headwinds, they believe a moderate 1% comp is reasonable.
The analyst views the 10 basis points of operating margin expansion per comp point and the $1 billion stock repurchase assumption as conservative.
Hoovers adds that Lowe&#8217;s is advancing self-help initiatives to boost top-line growth and margins, reducing the performance gap with Home Depot.
The industry&#8217;s duopoly and resistance to Amazon, along with a strong housing-driven long-term outlook, justify its premium valuation, adds the analyst.
Additionally, the recent decline in long-term rates is expected to boost demand, especially as existing home sales remain at 40-year lows, with potential upside from a Fed rate cut, per the analyst.
As the housing market improves, Horvers expects the company to further re-rate, especially with the 2025 guidance uncertainty cleared.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and&nbsp;VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTH#NASDAQ">RTH</a>).
Price Action: LOW shares are down 1.41% at $264.11 at the last check Thursday.
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Photo via Shutterstock.

Merrill Lynch Retail HOLDRS Trust due 12/31/41

Lowe's Positioned For Growth Amid Cost Savings And Housing Recovery: JP Morgan Analyst

Lowe&#8217;s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOW#NYSE">LOW</a>) highlighted its near-term and long-term financial targets at its 2024 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/12/n42432122/lowes-unveils-2025-total-home-strategy-to-drive-long-term-growth-and-market-share" rel="noreferrer noopener">Analyst and Investor Conference today</a>.
The company has introduced a standardized framework to harness generative AI, aimed at improving customer experiences and boosting productivity.
Also, the company launched the U.S. home improvement industry&#8217;s first product marketplace, partnering with new sellers and existing suppliers to expand its online assortment. This initiative strengthens Lowe&#8217;s position as a one-stop shop for all home needs.
Apart from this, in early 2025, Lowe&#8217;s will relaunch MyLowe&#8217;s Pro Rewards, a streamlined loyalty program for small-to-medium Pros.
The program will simplify earning and redeeming rewards, with Pro customers saving 5% daily on eligible purchases when using their MyLowe&#8217;s Pro Rewards Credit Card.
Moreover, Lowe&#8217;s is streamlining large Pro orders with direct supplier system integration, aiming to boost close rates and capture more Pro spend, while relying on suppliers for jobsite delivery.
FY24 Outlook: Lowe&#8217;s reaffirmed its outlook, projecting total sales between $83 billion and $83.5 billion<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener"> (consensus estimate: $83.34 billion)</a>.
The company expects comparable sales to decline by 3.0% to 3.5% and adjusted EPS <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/42060077/lowes-q3-earnings-revenue-and-eps-beat-but-comp-sales-fall-amid-softness-in-bigger-ticket-diy-discretionary-demand" rel="noreferrer noopener">of $11.80 &#8211; $11.90 (consensus estimate: $11.89)</a>.
Lowe&#8217;s plans to unveil its next phase of Perpetual Productivity Improvement (PPI) initiatives, projected to deliver approximately $1 billion in annual cost savings.
To drive growth, Lowe&#8217;s plans to open 10-15 stores annually in fast-growing U.S. markets, building on recent successes and enhanced space productivity.
The company will also expand its rural assortments to 150 more stores, offering a one-stop shop with enhanced selections in pet, workwear, automotive, and utility vehicles.
Marvin R. Ellison, Lowe&#8217;s chairman, president and CEO, said, &#8220;As we look ahead to the expected recovery in home improvement, we are making investments to position the company for long-term growth. We are evolving our Total Home strategy to help solve our customers&#8217; total home improvement needs with more value and exceptional service,&#8221;&nbsp;&nbsp;
&#8220;At the same time, we&#8217;re building on our momentum with Pros now that we&#8217;ve reached 30% Pro penetration.&#8221;
Goldman Sachs analyst rated the company a Buy rating, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/LOW/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">with a price target of $276.</a>
The analyst estimates FY24 sales of $83.3 billion, comparable sales of -3.3%, and adjusted EPS of $11.87.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and VanEck Retail ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTH#NASDAQ">RTH</a>).
Price Action: LOW shares are down 0.31% at $269.28 at the last check Wednesday.
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Lowe's Targets $1 Billion In Annual Savings And Expands Store Footprint To Drive Future Growth

A hiring freeze in October lifted market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, providing relief to U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/24/11/41684710/us-economy-adds-only-12-000-jobs-in-october-sharply-misses-estimates-as-hurricane-strikes-pummel-hir">stocks after Thursday's decline</a>. 
The U.S. economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, 211,000 fewer than in September. This marked the lowest monthly pace since December 2020 and sharply missed estimates of 113,000.
Market pricing now reflects a full probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at next week's Federal Reserve meeting, with the likelihood of another cut in December surging to 85%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hurricanes, Strikes Knock October Employment Down</h2>
Beyond the dismal October employment figures, which suggest a recession-like scenario, factors such as hurricanes and strikes have significantly disrupted hiring across the nation.
Hurricane Helene hit Florida's Gulf Coast on Sept. 26, followed by Hurricane Milton on Oct. 9, prompting widespread evacuations and disrupting multiple economic sectors.
"It is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates," the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated in its report.
Additionally, layoffs surged in manufacturing, rising to 46,000 — the highest since 2009, excluding the pandemic months of March and April 2020. "Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing largely due to strike activity," the BLS added.
Despite stagnant job growth in October, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, indicating that businesses remain committed to retaining their workforce.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Equity ETFs Rise On Rising Rate-Cut Bets</h3>
<ul>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), tracking the S&amp;P 500 index, rebounded 0.7% after Thursday&#8217;s 1.9% slump. </li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), replicating the Nasdaq 100, was 0.6% higher. </li>
<li>Small caps outperformed, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) soaring 1.2%. </li>
<li>The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAGS#NASDAQ">MAGS</a>) rose 1.4%. On Thursday, it tumbled 3.9%, marking the sharpest 1-day drop since late July.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) led gains, up over 2%, fueled by a 6% post-earnings rally from Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).</li>
<li>The Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZU#NASDAQ">AMZU</a>) skyrocketed by 13%. </li>
<li>Rising expectations for Fed rate cuts fueled gains in real estate industries, with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#NYSE">ITB</a>) rising 1.8%. </li>
<li>Semiconductors rebounded after tumbling by 3.9% on Thursday. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) rose 1.6%. Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) was among the best performers following better-than-expected results. </li>
<li>The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) – the biggest physically-backed gold ETF – also rose 0.5%, rebounding after Thursday&#8217;s 1.6% decline. </li>
<li>The United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), which tracks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude performance, gained 1% amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Iran&#8217;s retaliatory attack on Israel. </li>
</ul>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41663633/biggest-gold-etf-posts-highest-monthly-inflows-in-2-5-years-as-investors-rush-to-">Biggest Gold ETF Posts Highest Monthly Inflows In 2.5 Years As Investors Rush To Safe Haven Ahead Of Presidential Election</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Stocks Rebound After Selloff As October Hiring Slump Fuels Interest Rate Cut Bets: 10 ETFs To Watch Friday

D.R. Horton, Inc.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>) shares are trading lower after the company reported&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/b41594448/d-r-horton-inc-americas-builder-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2024-earnings-and-increases-quar" rel="noreferrer noopener">fourth-quarter results</a>.
Sales fell 5% year-over-year to&nbsp;$10.0 billion, missing the consensus of&nbsp;$10.2 billion.
Net sales orders increased&nbsp;1%&nbsp;to 19,035&nbsp;homes and&nbsp;decreased 2% in value at&nbsp;$7.1 billion.
Homebuilding revenue increased 2% to $9.0 billion. Homes closed in the quarter rose 3% to 23,647 homes.
Sales order backlog of homes under contract as of September 30, 2024, decreased&nbsp;20% to 12,180&nbsp;homes and&nbsp;19% in value to&nbsp;$4.8 billion.
D.R. Horton had 37,400&nbsp;homes in inventory, of which 25,700&nbsp;were unsold as of September 30, 2024.
EPS was&nbsp;$3.92,&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">missing the consensus of&nbsp;$4.17.</a>
Return on equity (ROE) was&nbsp;19.9% for FY24, and homebuilding pre-tax return on inventory (ROI) was 27.8%.
The company&#8217;s operating cash flow totaled&nbsp;$2.2 billion in FY24. As of September 30, 2024, the cash balance was&nbsp;$4.5 billion, and the available capacity on its credit facilities was $3.1 billion, for a total liquidity of&nbsp;$7.6 billion.
D.R. Horton repurchased 3.4 million shares for&nbsp;$561.2&nbsp;million during the quarter. The company&#8217;s remaining stock repurchase authorization as of September 30, 2024,&nbsp;was&nbsp;$3.6 billion.
Subsequent to year-end, the company raised the quarterly dividend by 33% to $0.40 per share. The dividend is payable on November 19, 2024, to shareholders of record as of November 12, 2024.
FY25 Outlook: D.R. Horton expects revenue of $36.0 billion &#8211; $37.5 billion versus the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus of&nbsp;$39.4 billion</a>.
It expects homes closed to be 90,000 homes-92,000 homes for the year. DHI projects FY25 operating cash flow to be greater than fiscal 2024
The company expects&nbsp;dividend payments of around&nbsp;$500 million and share repurchases of ~$2.4 billion.
David Auld, Executive Chairman, said, &#8220;While mortgage rates have decreased from their highs earlier this year, many potential homebuyers expect rates to be lower in 2025. We believe that rate volatility and uncertainty are causing some buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near term.&#8221;
&#8220;To help spur demand and address affordability, we are continuing to use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and we have continued to start and sell more of our homes with smaller floor plans.&#8221;
&#8220;The supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still generally limited, and demographics supporting housing demand are favorable. With a focus on affordable product offerings, 37,400 homes in inventory and continued improvement in our construction cycle times, we are well positioned for fiscal 2025.&#8221;
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and&nbsp;Invesco Building &amp; Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKB#NYSE">PKB</a>).
Price Action:&nbsp;DHI shares are down 10.2% at $162.00 premarket at the last check Tuesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41317881/hurricane-milton-to-deliver-2-5b-blow-to-floridas-homebuilding-sector-goldman-sachs" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hurricane Milton To Deliver $2.5B Blow To Florida&#8217;s Homebuilding Sector, Goldman Sachs Says</a></li>
</ul>

D.R. Horton Misses Q4 Estimates: Rising Inventory, FY25 Outlook Below Consensus Amid Cautious Homebuyers

PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PHM#NYSE">PHM</a>) shares are trading lower after the company <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/b41446207/pultegroup-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported&nbsp;third-quarter results</a>.
Revenue stood at&nbsp;$4.48 billion, beating the consensus of&nbsp;$4.26 billion.
Reported home sale revenues rose&nbsp;12% to&nbsp;$4.3 billion, with higher revenues reflecting a 12% increase in closings to 7,924&nbsp;homes and an average sales price of&nbsp;$548,000 (flat Y/Y).
The gross margin for home sales stood at&nbsp;28.8%, vs. 29.5% a year ago.
Net new orders fell to 7,031&nbsp;from 7,065 homes last year. However, the dollar value of net new orders rose&nbsp;3%&nbsp;to&nbsp;$3.9 billion&nbsp;in the&nbsp;third quarter.
GAAP EPS of&nbsp;$3.35 beat the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus of&nbsp;$3.15</a>.
At the end of the&nbsp;third quarter, the company&#8217;s backlog was 12,089&nbsp; homes, valued at&nbsp;$7.7 billion.
The company ended the year with&nbsp;$1.5 billion of cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of&nbsp;12.3%.
During the quarter, the company repurchased 2.5&nbsp;million of its common shares for&nbsp;$320&nbsp;million, or an average price of&nbsp;$126.05 per share.
Ryan Marshall, PulteGroup President and CEO, said, &#8220;Years of underbuilding has created a structural shortage of homes and correspondingly high home prices, so the Federal Reserve&#8217;s pivot to lowering interest rates provides a powerful tool in helping to address the affordability challenge faced by today&#8217;s homebuyers.&#8221;
&#8220;Given our strong&nbsp;third quarter&nbsp;and nine-month financial results, we are well positioned to deliver a record year of earnings for the Company,&#8221; added Marshall.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF&nbsp;(BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) and&nbsp;SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCTE#NASDAQ">FCTE</a>).
Price Action: PHM shares are down 5.8% at $135.90 at the last check Tuesday.
Image via Shutterstock
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41317881/hurricane-milton-to-deliver-2-5b-blow-to-floridas-homebuilding-sector-goldman-sachs" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hurricane Milton To Deliver $2.5B Blow To Florida&#8217;s Homebuilding Sector, Goldman Sachs Says</a></li>
</ul>

FCTE

FTCE

PulteGroup Q3 Beats Estimates: Home Closings Up 12%, CEO Highlights Fed's Role in Addressing Affordability

Hurricane Milton could slow down new home construction in the state of Florida, which could have a negative impact on the overall <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/housing">U.S. housing market.</a>
What Happened: Hurricane Milton has left devastation in the state of Florida that<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41254312/hurricane-milton-descends-on-florida-analysts-warn-of-impact-on-disney-nexteras-flo"> impacts multiple sectors</a> and will take time to clean up and restore portions of the state.
While portions of the cleanup effort will include the rebuilding and repair of existing homes, the hurricane could impact new homes built in Florida.
New home build permits could be delayed in portions of the state, while deliveries and orders could also be delayed on existing new homes. This could add costs to home builders who have large operations in the state of Florida, according to a Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-10-10/hurricane-milton-strikes-florida?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">report</a>.
The report names Taylor Morrison Home Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMHC#NYSE">TMHC</a>), PulteGroup (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PHM#NYSE">PHM</a>), Lennar Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>) and D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>) as the home builders with the highest exposure in Florida.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41266095/hurricane-milton-knocks-out-power-for-over-2m-in-florida-nextera-energy-duke-energy-and-tampa-electr">Hurricane Milton Knocks Out Power For Over 2M In Florida, NextEra Energy, Duke Energy, And Tampa Electric Report Major Outages</a>
Why It's Important: Florida accounts for 14% of single-family home permits and ranks second for new homes in the U.S., according to a Bloomberg report.
A <a href="https://constructioncoverage.com/research/cities-investing-most-in-new-housing">report </a>from Construction Coverage highlights Florida as ranking fifth for new home builds. Among the large cities tracked for the most new home builds, Florida has three cities on the list.
Jacksonville ranks third, Orlando ranks seventh and Tampa ranks 12th.&nbsp;
Investors could soon get more details on the impact Hurricane Milton has on new home builds in the state of Florida. Pulte reports quarterly earnings on Oct. 22, Taylor Morrison reports on Oct. 23 and D.R. Horton reports on Oct. 29.
Lennar <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/09/40948948/homebuilder-lennar-reports-better-than-expected-q3-results-details">reported quarterly financial results </a>in September with revenue and earnings per share both beating estimates from analysts.
The company reported new orders were up 5% year-over-year to 20,587 homes and deliveries were up 16% year-over-year to 21,516 homes. Lennar reported a backlog of 16,944 homes worth an estimated $7.7 billion.
Outlooks from home builder companies could be conservative or guided down in the coming quarterly results and something investors should closely monitor.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) holds a basket of home building stocks with D.R. Horton (14.6%), Lennar (11.7%) and Pulte (7.8%) ranking first, second and fourth, respectively, in the fund by assets.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit/24/09/41036750/new-us-single-family-home-sales-fall-from-prior-month-but-are-up-from-a-year-ago-as-mortgage-rat">New U.S. Single-Family Home Sales Fall From Prior Month — But Are Up From A Year Ago As Mortgage Rates Decline</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Markets

TMHC

Florida Is A Top State For New Home Builds — Could Hurricane Milton Slow It Down? 4 Homebuilder Stocks That Could Come Under Pressure

Sales of single-family homes fell last <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/06/39465243/u-s-home-sales-decline-for-third-month-as-record-prices-pose-persistent-affordability-challenges-dur">month from July </a>but rose from a year ago as mortgage rates kept falling.
New single-family home sales fell 4.7% in August from the prior month to an annualized rate of 716,000, according to estimates released on Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
That was up 9.8% from an annualized rate of 652,000 home sales in August 2023.
The latest month-over-month decline was in contrast to a 10.3% jump in single-family home sales from June to July.
Single-family home sales fell the most from July to August in the West, falling 17.8% to an annualized rate of 152,000 in that region.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/06/39398524/home-sales-suffer-third-worst-month-in-the-last-10-years">Home Sales Suffer Third Worst Month In The Last 10 Years</a>
Sales of all homes, which also included condominiums, townhomes and co-ops, slipped 2.5% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.86 million in August, according to latest figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Year-over-year sales for August declined 4.2% from 4.03 million in August 2023.
"Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months," NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said.
"The home-buying process, from the initial search to getting the house keys, typically takes several months."
The interest rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/41024067/mortgage-demand-soars-as-fed-interest-rate-cut-fuels-housing-market-revival-next-sp">two-year low of 6.13%</a>, a week after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mark the first Fed rate cut in four years.
Price Action: Lennar Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>), one of the largest homebuilders with a market cap of $49.5 billion, slipped 1.29% to close Wednesday at $181.86.
<ul>
<li>IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) slipped 1.71%</li>
<li>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NAIL#NYSE">NAIL</a>) fell 4.94%</li>
<li>AdvisorShares Gerber Kawasaki ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GK#NYSE">GK</a>) went up 0.17%</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/07/39909262/us-home-sales-see-sharpest-monthly-decline-in-1-5-years-as-record-high-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-s">US Home Sales See Sharpest Monthly Decline In 1.5 Years As Record High Prices Keep Buyers On The Sideline</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Floridastock via Shutterstock

REIT

New US Single-Family Home Sales Fall From Prior Month — But Are Up From A Year Ago As Mortgage Rates Decline

New construction on single-family homes in the U.S. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/06/32926608/us-housing-starts-skyrocket-to-highest-level-since-2016-sign-of-strong-market-optimism-among-builder">jumped in August</a> as mortgage rates trend downward and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday for the first time in four years.
Single-family housing starts last month came in at an annualized rate of 992,000 units, up 15.8% from a revised figure of 857,000 for July, according to Commerce Department data released on Wednesday.
Starts for all privately-owned housing in August totaled an annualized rate of 1.356 million units, up 9.6% from the July revised estimate of 1.237 million and up 3.9% from the August 2023 rate of 1.305 million.
Single-family housing completions reached an annualized rate of 1.029 million in August, registering a 5.6% decline from July&#8217;s revised rate of 1.09 million.
Completions for all privately-owned homes in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.788 million, up 9.2% from the July revised estimate of 1.637 million and 30.2% above the July 2023 rate of 1.373 million.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/03/37845734/housing-starts-rebound-lift-homebuilder-stocks-sign-of-economic-resilience">Housing Starts Rebound, Lift Homebuilder Stocks: Sign Of Economic Resilience</a>
Building permits also rose last month, Commerce Department data showed.
Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 967,000, up 2.8% from the revised July figure of 941,000.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,475,000. That&#8217;s up 4.9% from the July revised rate of 1.406 million but below the August 2023 rate of 1.578 million.
The average rate for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40921345/mortgage-rates-drop-to-2-year-low-refinancing-hits-fastest-pace-since-2022-rocket-lendingtree-among">30-year mortgages</a> fell 14 basis points in the week ended Sept. 13 to 6.15%, marking the lowest rate since September 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The Federal Reserve is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40921827/fed-decision-is-here-5-things-investors-need-to-know-ahead-of-wednesdays-pivotal-in">expected to lower</a> its key interest rate ranging from 5% to 5.25% on Wednesday by either 25 or 50 basis points, signifying its first rate decline in four years.
Price Action: Homebuilders slid into Wednesday&#8217;s mid-day trading.
<ul>
<li>D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>) slipped 0.86% to $193.67 </li>
<li>Pulte Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PHM#NYSE">PHM</a>) declined 0.41% to $139.88</li>
<li>NVR, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVR#NYSE">NVR</a>) went down 0.34% to $9,542.99</li>
</ul>
Exchange-traded funds that hold homebuilder stocks showed gains and losses.
<ul>
<li>IShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) declined 0.57%</li>
<li>Direxion Daily Homebuilders &amp; Supplies Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NAIL#NYSE">NAIL</a>) fell 1.8%</li>
<li>Pacer US Cash Cows Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BUL#NYSE">BUL</a>) gained 0.2%</li>
</ul>
Read Now:
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<li>&#8216;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/08/40666981/the-time-has-come-to-adjust-cheaper-mortgage-rates-could-be-just-weeks-away-but-it-all-hinges-on-thi">The Time Has Come to Adjust&#8217; — Cheaper Mortgage Rates Could Be Just Weeks Away, But It All Hinges On This Data</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Single-Family Housing Starts Are Up As Mortgage Rates Decline, Fed Eyes Lower Rates

The U.S. housing market has been tumultuous <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/24/08/40259694/housing-inches-toward-buyers-market-as-mortgage-rates-fall-but-with-one-caveat-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">due to persistent interest rate hikes</a>.
However, an upward revision of<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/08/40639345/traders-scale-back-bets-on-50-basis-point-september-rate-cut-ahead-of-fridays-key-fed-inflation-ga"> U.S. gross domestic product growth</a> in the second quarter has led speculators to reconsider their bets on a substantial 50-basis-point&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40627044/us-dollar-oil-prices-tech-stocks-rise-as-gdp-roars-by-3-in-q2-bonds-yen-slip-as-bets-for-large-r" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">rate cut next month.</a>
With mortgage rates expected to decrease, experts advise homebuyers to act swiftly to secure the best deals before the opportunity closes.
Looking ahead, several dynamic trends are set to shape the housing market.
According to a <a href="https://www.noradarealestate.com/blog/housing-market-forecast-for-next-5-years/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">note</a> by Norada Real Estate Investments, the market will remain strong over the next five years, though it will experience some dramatic shifts. Home prices are projected to continue rising, but at a slower pace than in recent years, offering a more gradual increase. While the supply of homes is expected to grow, addressing the previous shortage should ease the inventory crunch that has driven prices up.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40230627/a-ton-of-landlords-are-about-to-raise-rents-this-year" rel="noreferrer noopener">A Ton Of Landlords Are About To Raise Rents This Year</a>
Despite the Federal Reserve&#8217;s past rate hikes raising borrowing costs and dampening buyer enthusiasm, a gradual rate decline could rekindle demand and revitalize the market.
However, competition will remain fierce due to robust job growth, population expansion, and limited land availability.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2024 Forecast</h3>
The U.S. housing market is anticipated to slow, with home prices either stabilizing or seeing a slight decline. Zillow&#8217;s latest forecast for 2024 projects a 1.8% national increase in home values, indicating a period of market stability, Norada Real Estate Investments added.
Stock Opportunities
As home prices are expected to remain stable or increase modestly, homebuilders are likely to benefit from sustained demand and favorable conditions. This stability should support their revenue growth through ongoing construction and sales.
According to a June report by the<a href="https://www.nahb.org/blog/2024/06/pro-builder-housing-giants"> National Association of Home Builders</a>, the top three homebuilders by revenue, closings, and home types are:
<ul>
<li>D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHI#NYSE">DHI</a>): DHI stock has surged over 58% in the past year. Wells Fargo recently raised its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/DHI/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">price forecast </a>to $220 from $210 while maintaining an Overweight rating. Investors can consider the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>) for exposure.</li>
<li>Lennar Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEN#NYSE">LEN</a>): LEN stock has risen more than 52% in the past year. Wells Fargo increased its price forecast to $195 from $185, also maintaining an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/LEN/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Overweight </a>rating. The AdvisorShares Gerber Kawasaki ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GK#NYSE">GK</a>) offers a way to invest in Lennar.</li>
<li>Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TOL#NYSE">TOL</a>): TOL stock has jumped over 75% in the past year. Wedbush raised its<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TOL/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> price forecast</a> to $148 from $120, keeping a Neutral rating. The Invesco Dorsey Wright Consumer Cyclicals Momentum ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEZ#NASDAQ">PEZ</a>) provides investment exposure.</li>
</ul>
Overall, the U.S. housing market is poised for stability this year, with modest price increases and benefits for homebuilders. Prices are projected to rise 3-5% annually through 2029, while mortgage rates are expected to stabilize above pre-pandemic levels, Norada reported. This evolving landscape, marked by a shift towards suburban and rural demand and technological advancements, will require buyers and investors to remain informed and adaptable, the report added.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40649198/housing-market-in-biggest-bubble-of-all-time-warns-reventure-ceo-this-situation-is-not-sustainable" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Housing Market In &#8216;Biggest Bubble Of All Time,&#8217; Warns Reventure CEO: &#8216;This Situation Is Not Sustainable&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

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