最新ニュース iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:MCHI)

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The fund generally will invest at least 90% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index and in investments that have economic characteristics that are substantially identical to the component securities of the underlying index. The index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market capitalization of the Chinese equity securities markets, as represented by the H-shares and B-shares markets. The fund is non-diversified.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

PDD Holdings Inc

Meituan Dianping

BYD Company Limited Cl. H

Tencent Holdings Ltd

iShares MSCI China ETF

MARUICHI STEEL TUBE LTD by Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd.

Maruichi Steel Tube Ltd

The detox phase may be over but don't expect investors to binge just yet. JPMorgan's equity strategy team, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Bhupinder Singh, thinks the worst <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">of tariff trauma</a> might be easing &#8211; though the business cycle hangover still lingers.
In a market update that channels equal parts caution and calculated optimism, the duo points to a subtle but significant pivot in policy tone. "The latest messaging from the Trump Administration seems to be shifting from tariffs to tax cuts and deregulation," they write a shift that may reduce the left tail risk that's had investors hiding in cash and hugging their low-leverage books.
But don't confuse hope with resolution. "Clarity and closure are still needed," JPMorgan warns, especially as trade chatter with China heats up again. Deals with Japan, Korea and India could serve as templates, but the big dragon in the room &#8211; China &#8211; remains the key.
President Donald Trump&#8216;s tariffs may come down, but will a complete rollback follow? Unlikely. Transshipment tricks and political posturing will keep some barriers in place.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bearish Bias And Pain Trade</h2>
"Sentiment is very bearish," the strategists say, with many in the macro community brushing off positive trade signals thanks to "Trump exhaustion." Systematic portfolios have scaled back so aggressively that some are flirting with max short levels. Translation: the pain trade is up.
JPMorgan sees the S&amp;P 500 likely staying range-bound between 5,200 (base case) and 5,800 (bull case), driven by EPS estimates of $250 and $260, respectively, for 2025. But in the near term, the bias is upward as markets "preposition on tariff de-escalation."
For investors, that means playing defense might soon come at the cost of missing out. ETFs like the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA: SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ) could benefit if this pain trade reversal plays out.
Meanwhile, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor TF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USMV#NYSE">USMV</a>) remains a favorite among those still clinging to Low Volatility strategies &#8211; just look at the "sharp rise in Low Vol crowding," the report notes.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44962489/vix-is-still-wild-but-not-for-long-3-volatility-etfs-to-grab-before-calm-returns">VIX Is Still Wild, But Not for Long: 3 Volatility ETFs To Grab Before Calm Returns</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Momentum Out, Buybacks In</h2>
Even with volatility, JPMorgan expects a corporate silver lining. "US corporates to deliver record buyback executions," thanks to recent equity swings. That should provide some cushion &#8211; especially as the dollar dips, energy prices fall and easier monetary policy lurks.
Still, don't count on a multiple re-rating to the euphoric 22-24x highs. JPMorgan thinks a "~20x upper bound multiple is more reasonable," citing high-quality fundamentals, AI-driven capex cycles, and capital returns.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Plays For A Murky Macro</h2>
As market clarity remains elusive, the strategists highlight the subtle Trump Put &#8211; volatility may be self-inflicted, but now there's an incentive to walk it back. That leaves opportunities for investors willing to hold their noses and look past the noise.
For those leaning into the upside risk:
<ul>
<li>SPY and QQQ for broad market exposure,</li>
<li>USMV for safety-first plays,</li>
<li>Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VIG#NYSE">VIG</a>) as buybacks and cash returns heat up,</li>
<li>iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) for any surprise breakthroughs with Beijing.</li>
</ul>
The detox might be over, but the bull case is still waiting for its adrenaline shot. For now, investors may want to brace for a "range-bound" grind &#8211; with the pain trade whispering from the upside.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/04/45004528/sp-500-could-crash-37-to-3700-if-tariff-fallout-triggers-recession-warns-wolfe-research">S&amp;P 500 Could Crash 37% To 3,700 If Tariff Fallout Triggers Recession, Warns Wolfe Research</a></li>
</ul>
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Macro Economic Events

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Specialty ETFs

Emerging Market ETFs

Economics

Analyst Ratings

ETFs

MCHI

USMV

Trump Put Gets Louder, But Bulls Still Need A Map - JPMorgan Strategists See 'Pain Trade' To The Upside

If you hold U.S.-listed Chinese stocks like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NASDAQ">BABA</a>), JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>) or PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>), you may soon face serious liquidity risks, as delisting threats tied to geopolitical and regulatory frictions between Washington and Beijing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">mount with fresh urgency.</a>
In a note shared Thursday, Goldman Sachs analyst Kinger Lau, CFA, said delisting fears for Chinese American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are rising again, driven by escalating trade tensions and new policy guidance from U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump&#8216;s America First Investment Policy and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement that "everything is on the table" in the response to China's retaliatory tariffs.
According to Goldman Sachs&#8217; ADR Delisting Barometer, there is currently a 66% probability of delisting risk embedded in Chinese ADRs. A full pricing in of delisting risk could lead to a 9% drop in ADR valuations from current levels. 
&#8220;U.S. listings by Chinese companies is widely regarded as an embodiment of financial market relations and a leverage for the potential negotiation between the two nations,&#8221; Lau wrote.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">How High Are The Stakes?</h1>
&#8220;We estimate that U.S. institutional investors currently own around U.S.$830 billion of Chinese stocks across A shares, H shares and ADRs,&#8221; Goldman Sachs stated. Of this, approximately $250 billion is tied up in ADRs specifically.
At the same time, Chinese investors could be forced to offload up to $1.7 trillion in U.S. financial assets, including approximately $370 billion in equities and $1.3 trillion in bonds.
This extreme scenario — which alludes to a full investment ban — would represent the largest forced unwind of cross-border holdings in modern financial history.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Who Gets Hit The Hardest?</h1>
According to Goldman's analysis, 5% of Alibaba's and 3% of PDD's market cap is owned by U.S. institutions that currently don't own other Hong Kong-listed stocks such as Tencent or Meituan. That means they may not have operational flexibility to pivot to Hong Kong in the event of delisting.
Roughly 20% of U.S. institutional holdings in top ADRs — equivalent to 7% of the total market cap — may face similar constraints, meaning they may be forced sellers.
For Alibaba, there are 1,275 institutional holders globally, and institutional investors collectively own 50% of the company&#8217;s outstanding shares. Out of that, 26% of Alibaba's total shares are held by U.S.-based institutions, with 176 U.S. institutional investors holding positions larger than 0.005% of the company's total shares.
For PDD, the figures are more concentrated: it has 1,006 institutional holders, with institutions holding 31% of the stock overall. 16% of the total shares are held by U.S. institutional investors, and there are 107 U.S.-based institutional holders with significant stakes (above 0.005% ownership).
In short, the data suggests Alibaba has both broader and deeper institutional engagement, especially from U.S. investors, compared to PDD. This means that, in the event of a U.S. delisting, Alibaba could see a greater volume of forced selling from U.S. institutional investors due to the larger size and scale of U.S. holdings.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Are ETFs And Derivatives at Risk?</h1>
Yes. Passive funds and ETF products are particularly exposed. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) has 33% of its assets in ADRs, half of which do not have Hong Kong listings, making it vulnerable in a forced delisting scenario.
Other funds, like the iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>), have already shifted weightings from ADRs to Hong Kong shares, thanks to changes in primary ticker designations by index providers like MSCI.
In derivatives markets, any forced delisting of ADRs could trigger early termination events under ISDA contracts, potentially unwinding outstanding options and swaps linked to these securities.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What Happens In A Delisting Event?</h1>
If a delisting takes place, investors may have a few paths forward depending on how the company is structured. For firms with dual listings, investors can convert their ADRs into Hong Kong-listed shares through the depositary bank. 
This process typically takes about two business days and may involve fees and applicable taxes. In some cases, investors might be able to sell their shares on over-the-counter (OTC) markets, although this route is blocked for companies delisted under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) or sanctioned by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). 
If no action is taken by the investor, the ADR program will eventually be terminated and the depositary will sell the underlying shares, distributing the net proceeds in cash after deducting fees.
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44862662/trump-pressures-fed-as-ecb-delivers-7th-straight-rate-cut">Trump Pressures Fed As ECB Delivers 7th Straight Rate Cut</a></li>
</ul>
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Equities

Government

Large Cap

Regulations

Global

Econ #s

Tech

BABA

KWEB

Citigourp Global Markets 2% Protected Notes Linked To The Djia

US-Listed Chinese Stocks Face $250 Billion Forced Selling Risk As Delisting Fears Emerge: What Investors Need To Know

The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">90-day tariff pause</a> announced by President Donald Trump&#8216;s administration may offer temporary relief, but JPMorgan analyst Fabio Bassi warns that the macro backdrop remains fragile.
While countries that have not retaliated are spared for now, a 10% blanket tariff stays in place and tariffs on Chinese imports are jumping to 145%. That lifts the average U.S. tariff rate to around 30% &#8211; a significant economic headwind.
Bassi sees the recent move as a tactical timeout rather than a meaningful shift. Even under the unlikely scenario of China being removed entirely from the U.S. import equation, the average tariff rate would only fall back to the 10% level.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Pause, Not A Pivot As Recession Risk Looms</h2>
The size of the tariff-induced tax hike &#8211; estimated at over 3% of GDP &#8211; keeps recession fears alive. Bassi maintains a 60% probability of a U.S. and global recession. His 40% non-recession case hinges on a reversal of the China tariff escalation and a halt to further trade tensions elsewhere.
With sentiment weak and data mixed, macro headlines are set to dominate again. The so-called "Trump put," Bassi notes, was triggered by both a sharp equity selloff and a dysfunctional Treasury market, pushing the administration to ease up.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/25/04/44774273/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-expects-sp-500-growth-forecast-to-be-cut">JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Expects S&amp;P 500 Growth Forecast To Be Cut</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P 500 Faces Binary Path</h2>
JPMorgan has trimmed its S&amp;P 500 year-end target to 5,200, but Bassi lays out a nearly binary risk-reward path. A drawn-out trade war could drag the index toward 4,000, while a meaningful trade breakthrough &#8211; with Europe, Japan and a softened stance on China &#8211; could launch a rally toward 5,800.
Investors in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), the iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVV#NYSE">IVV</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) should remain wary of their holdings.
In the meantime, he expects markets to remain range-bound, with any short-term bounce vulnerable to fading if not backed by real policy clarity or Fed support.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Global Hedges: China Tech, India In Focus</h2>
As U.S. risks mount, Bassi highlights select opportunities abroad. China tech remains investable, especially given the likelihood of aggressive policy support from Beijing. ETFs like the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) and iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) offer exposure to that rebound theme.
India also gets a bullish nod, with potential policy tailwinds making it a compelling risk-on trade. U.S. investors may want to keep an eye on the iShares MSCI India ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INDA#NYSE">INDA</a>) as a way to diversify away from the choppy U.S. outlook.
Bassi's view is clear: the tariff pause is not a pivot. With macro risks still elevated and the market vulnerable, investors may want to hedge through global plays rather than rush back into the U.S. exceptionalism trade.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44748635/stocks-bounce-off-session-lows-after-trump-says-china-deal-is-going-to-work-out">China Deal Is &#8216;Going To Work Out,&#8217; Trump Says As Stocks Bounce From Session Lows</a></li>
</ul>
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Long Ideas

Markets

Trading Ideas

INDA

S&P 500 Could Tank To 4,000 If 'Trump Put' Fizzles, Says JPMorgan

The Hang Seng Index on Monday was affected by worldwide signals, especially the soon-to-be-held U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and the announcement of Hong Kong&#8217;s February 2025 unemployment rate. The index closed nearly 1% higher. This upbeat action came after <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">China&#8217;s better-than-forecast</a> retail sales figures.
The Hang Seng TECH Index also increased by over 2% on March 14th, and remained largely flat Monday, reflecting the strength in the tech sector. Market sentiment seemed to be cautiously optimistic, waiting for more cues from the Fed and the local unemployment figures. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44350873/nvidia-faces-new-ai-challenge-as-chinese-start-up-unveils-framework-to-cut-reliance-on-its-gpus">Nvidia Faces New AI Challenge As Chinese Start-Up Unveils Framework To Cut Reliance On Its GPUs</a>
There&#8217;s growing investor interest in ETFs tracking Chinese AI stocks as leaders like Baidu (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIDU#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>) and Alibaba (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) continue to lead the charge in AI technology. Recent news reports showcase that there&#8217;s a lot of excitement building up China&#8217;s emerging sector in artificial intelligence. 
Investors are anticipating a chance to benefit from China&#8217;s tech success story as it competes on a global scale. China is blowing up thanks to tech, and there&#8217;s potential for people who invest.
For&nbsp;American&nbsp;investors&nbsp;looking&nbsp;to get&nbsp;a piece of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">China&#8217;s&nbsp;growing&nbsp;AI&nbsp;industry</a>,&nbsp;ETFs&nbsp;following China&#8217;s AI sector are becoming an increasingly appealing choice. A few of the prominent ETFs with large exposures to Baidu, Alibaba, and other Chinese AI companies include:
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>): One of the most&nbsp;popular&nbsp;China-tracking&nbsp;ETFs, KWEB&nbsp;offers&nbsp;exposure to&nbsp;large&nbsp;Chinese internet and technology&nbsp;giants,&nbsp;such&nbsp;as&nbsp;Baidu and Alibaba.
iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>): This China ETF covers broad-based AI leaders and other Chinese blue-chip stocks, such as PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>).
Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGJ#NASDAQ">PGJ</a>): A U.S.-listed ETF that&nbsp;follows&nbsp;U.S.-listed Chinese&nbsp;firms,&nbsp;some&nbsp;of which are leading&nbsp;companies&nbsp;in AI development like Alibaba and Baidu.
Baidu&#8217;s AI Breakthroughs
Baidu <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44349635/baidu-says-its-new-ai-is-smarter-than-deepseeks-and-costs-half-as-much-excellent-multimodal-understanding-ability">brought two new AI models </a>to the market that highlight the company's push for leadership in the space. Over the weekend, Baidu introduced Ernie X1, a reasoning model that competes with DeepSeek R1 but at half the price. Additionally, the company launched Ernie 4.5, a multimodal foundation model that Baidu claims outperforms OpenAI's GPT-4.5 in multiple benchmarks while costing just 1% of its counterpart's price.
As part of its AI push, Baidu is releasing its Ernie Bot publicly for the first time ahead of schedule and intends to roll out its most recent models into its product ecosystem, including Baidu Search, China&#8217;s leading search engine. These steps make Baidu a strong competitor in China&#8217;s AI competition and could make it more appealing to ETFs with high exposure to the stock.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/03/44360533/whats-going-on-with-baidu-shares-monday">What&#8217;s Going On With Baidu Shares Monday?</a>
Alibaba&#8217;s AI Surge
At the same time, Alibaba is also creating ripples in the AI world with its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/25/03/44308308/alibaba-unveils-new-ai-powered-app-with-chatbot-image-generation-and-task-automation">Quark AI assistant</a>, which runs on its in-house Qwen reasoning AI model. Quark has been well-received on Chinese social media and is viewed as a potential &#8220;killer app&#8221; in the AI space.
In a&nbsp;dramatic&nbsp;move&nbsp;to&nbsp;deepen&nbsp;its&nbsp;technology&nbsp;advantage, Alibaba&nbsp;said last month&nbsp;it&nbsp;will&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/alibaba-to-spend-more-than-52-billion-in-ai-cloud-over-next-three-years-167f46ea">invest&nbsp;</a>$52 billion in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years. This&nbsp;is&nbsp;the&nbsp;biggest&nbsp;computing project ever&nbsp;funded&nbsp;by a single private&nbsp;firm&nbsp;in China and&nbsp;represents&nbsp;the&nbsp;country&#8217;s&nbsp;overall&nbsp;drive&nbsp;to&nbsp;push the envelope for the top position in&nbsp;AI development.
Economic Rebound And AI Investments Drive Market Optimism
China&#8217;s economy is shifting from pandemic-induced austerity to pro-growth policies to bolster the country&#8217;s crucial sectors. China has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/05/china-reportedly-targets-around-5percent-growth-in-2025-amid-trade-war-worries.html">set </a>its 2025 GDP growth goal at 5%, with an emphasis on economic stabilization, like reviving the real estate  sector after the Evergrande crisis.
This revival is evident in the Hang Seng Index, which recorded its first year-on-year gain in 2024 after 2021 and has continued to rally in 2025 with a 23% year-to-date return. The renewed optimism in the market, along with the fervent AI investment, is making China&#8217;s technology sector more desirable to foreign investors.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44363430/covered-call-etfs-a-smart-income-play-in-volatile-markets">Covered Call ETFs: A Smart Income Play In Volatile Markets</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: NESPIX/Shuttestock.com

BIDU

PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio

China's AI Surge Fuels ETF Gains: Baidu, Alibaba Lead The Way

The U.S. and China are in early talks for a potential &#8220;birthday summit&#8221; between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">Xi Jinping in June</a>.
What Happened: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/china/u-s-china-discuss-a-trump-xi-summit-for-june-04610b8f?mod=hp_lead_pos2">According </a>to the Wall Street Journal, the discussions come as the Trump administration <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/trump-tariffs">escalates tariffs and trade</a> measures against China, aiming to gain leverage in negotiations.
The summit, timed around the leaders&#8217; June birthdays—Trump on June 14, 1946, and Xi on June 15, 1953—could introduce goodwill amid trade tensions that have rattled global markets. Both leaders have shown interest in a summit since Trump's November election victory, though no firm plans have been made.
Beijing is reportedly keen to negotiate, hoping a summit might slow additional U.S. tariffs and technology restrictions. China's recent export data fell below expectations, and the country faces deflation. The Trump administration recently raised tariffs on Chinese imports to around 35%, citing China's role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis, WSJ reports.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44217379/china-hits-soybeans-with-tariffs-its-largest-us-import-along-with-other-agri-products-here-a-list-of-stocks-and-etfs-that-could-be-impacted">China Hits Its Largest US Import, Soybeans, With Tariffs Along With Other Agricultural Products: Here&#8217;s A List Of Stocks, ETFs That Could Be Impacted</a>
Why It Matters: Geo-political relations between the U.S. and China haven&#8217;t improved since Trump won the 2024 presidential election.
Former President Joe Biden met President Xi once in the days following Trump&#8217;s election victory—in <a href="https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-3/">Lima, Peru</a>. Before that, they convened in 2023 to discuss the global economy, supply chain disruptions, and rising protectionism as "grave problems."
"China and United States turning back on each other is not an option," Xi said <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/23/11/35814525/historic-biden-xi-jinping-meeting-paves-way-for-joint-efforts-in-ai-climate-change">at the time</a>.
But once Trump was sworn into office in January, imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports was a top priority. As recently as March 4, the Trump White House doubled the levy on Chinese imports to 20%. 
China clapped back with its own retaliatory tariffs, per the Associated Press, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-us-tariffs-farm-soy-trump-7442b02ac829347f0d4fc6ad0955d368">last week</a>. 
At a news conference during China&#8217;s annual parliamentary session on Friday, March 7, China&#8217;s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, positioned Beijing as a stabilizing global force while criticizing the U.S. as &#8220;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/03/07/nx-s1-5320802/china-us-tariffs-gaza-ukraine-russia-trump">two-faced</a>.&#8221; 
Wang emphasized China&#8217;s role as a global &#8220;anchor&#8221; as opposed to the U.S.
The potential summit marks a critical moment in U.S.-China relations, as both sides navigate economic, technological, and strategic rivalries.
ETFs To Watch: Notable exchange-traded funds to watch include the iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>), which allocates the biggest chunk of its holdings to Shenzhen, China-based Tencent Holdings Ltd (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TCEHY#OTC">TCEHY</a>).
There&#8217;s also SPDR S&amp;P China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GXC#NYSE">GXC</a>) and Invesco China Technology ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CQQQ#NYSE">CQQQ</a>), which are both particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments. 
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/03/44214424/move-over-deepseek-not-so-fast-chinas-manus-ai-goes-viral-but-early-users-say-it-crashes-loops-and-fumbles-the-basics">Move Over DeepSeek? Not So Fast: China&#8217;s Manus AI Goes Viral, But Early Users Say It Crashes, Loops, And Fumbles The Basics</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using photos from Shutterstock.

Politics

CQQQ

TCEHY

Trump, Xi Discuss Potential 'Birthday Summit' Amid Rising Trade Tensions: Report

China's annual National People's Congress (NPC) kicked off on March 5 and is set to run until March 11. According to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, while the NPC may be a rubber stamp for party policies, investors are closely <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">monitoring its developments</a>.
The market reaction suggests renewed optimism, with Chinese equities rallying and fixed income markets showing signs of life. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) is up 5.48% over the past five days. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) is up 9.88% and the iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) has gained 5.90% over the same period.
But is this the real turning point for China's economy &#8211; or just another sugar high?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Growth Target: Can China Hit 5%?</h2>
Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed China's 2025 growth target at 5%, marking the third consecutive year of this goal. Turnquist notes that while this target was expected, economists remain skeptical, forecasting closer to 4.5% growth. Economists, however, are skeptical, pegging actual growth closer to 4.5%.
The government's strategy? A mix of fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy. For investors, this means China-sensitive ETFs such as MWEB, FXI and MCHI could see continued momentum if policymakers deliver on pro-growth measures.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/emerging-market-etfs/25/03/44089512/3-china-focused-etfs-to-watch-as-stronger-manufacturing-data-stimulus-hopes-boost-sentiment">3 China-Focused ETFs To Watch As Stronger Manufacturing Data, Stimulus Hopes Boost Sentiment</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fiscal Deficit Jumps &#8211; More Stimulus Incoming?</h2>
Beijing raised its budget deficit to 4% of GDP, the highest since 1994, to spur domestic demand. Turnquist highlights that this shift signals a commitment to boosting consumption and infrastructure spending. This includes boosting infrastructure and real estate spending, doubling funding for consumer trade-in subsidies and ramping up local government support.
The stimulus push could bode well for infrastructure-heavy ETFs like Global X MSCI China Financials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CHIX#NYSE">CHIX</a>) and KraneShares China Infrastructure ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KFVG#NYSE">KFVG</a>).
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Domestic Growth Takes Center Stage</h2>
China is moving away from its export-heavy playbook, prioritizing domestic consumption. The government is also warming up to tech firms, with a new national venture capital fund aimed at reviving the sector. 
That's bullish for consumer and tech-heavy plays such as Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGJ#NYSE">PGJ</a>) and KraneShares MSCI All China Health Care ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KURE#NYSE">KURE</a>).
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Are Buying The News</h2>
Chinese stocks welcomed the NPC's stance, with the MSCI China Index jumping 2.8% and now up 16.1% year-to-date. Turnquist points out that the market reaction suggests improving investor confidence, particularly if technical levels hold. The rally is broadening, with over two-thirds of index stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. 
A close above 77 could signal a major breakout, making this a pivotal moment for ETFs like SPDR S&amp;P China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GXC#NYSE">GXC</a>).
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fixed Income Markets Join The Party</h2>
After months of skepticism, China's bond market is starting to price in better growth prospects. Turnquist observes that rising yields and a steepening yield curve indicate that fixed income investors are beginning to buy into the recovery narrative. Sovereign 10-year yields have rebounded from record lows, and the yield curve is steepening—a sign that bond investors are getting on board with the recovery narrative.
China's latest policy moves are sending strong signals to investors: more stimulus, a pivot to domestic growth and a friendlier environment for tech and infrastructure.
While skepticism remains, market momentum suggests traders are willing to give China the benefit of the doubt—for now. Keep an eye on FXI, MCHI, KWEB, CHIX, KFVG, PGJ, and GXC to ride the potential upside.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44102063/china-strikes-back-at-trumps-tariffs-with-retaliatory-duties-us-company-sanctions-and-wto-showdown">China Strikes Back At Trump&#8217;s Tariffs With Retaliatory Duties, US Company Sanctions, And WTO Showdown</a></li>
</ul>

CHIX

KraneShares Trust KraneShares CICC China 5G and Semiconductor Index ETF

KFVG

KURE

China's Market Rebound: Is The NPC Meeting A Turning Point For Investors?

Many of the top-performing stocks and assets in recent years have stumbled at the start of 2025, with Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) dropping to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/02/43987636/bitcoin-tumbles-below-85000-amid-president-trumps-eu-tariff-threats">a three-month low.</a>
Here's a look at the year-to-date performance of top 2024 assets and what's outperforming them.
What Happened: Bitcoin was a top performer in 2024, rising over 100% and hitting multiple all-time highs throughout the year, including shortly after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidency.
While Bitcoin rebounded in January, the leading cryptocurrency has since reversed course, down 10.4% year-to-date in 2025. Once seen as a hedge against interest rates, inflation, and macroeconomic concerns, Bitcoin is now declining alongside other traditionally perceived safe-haven assets.
Magnificent Seven stocks, which were also top performers in recent years, have also been underperformers in 2025, compared to the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>). Here are the year-to-date returns.
<ul>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>): -2.4%</li>
<li>Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>): -5.3%</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>)(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>): -10.4%</li>
<li>Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>): +9.9%</li>
<li>Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>): -6.4%</li>
<li>NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>): -12.8%</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>): -24.5%</li>
</ul>
Compare that to the SPY, which is trading nearly even with its starting year price with a current share price of $585.03. At the time of writing, the ETF is up 39 cents on the year, or 0.07%.
Technology stocks have also outperformed in recent years, helping boost the investment returns of the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>). The ETF, which is heavily weighted in tech stocks, is down 2.0% year-to-date in 2025.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/25/02/44043021/tesla-the-only-magnificent-seven-stock-in-freefall-can-it-reverse-course">Tesla: The Only Magnificent Seven Stock In Freefall &#8211; Can It Reverse Course?</a>
The Outperformers: While Bitcoin, tech and the Magnificent Seven stocks are down year-to-date in 2025, there are several places that are outperforming the broad market.
One of the top places is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>). The ETF is up 2.1% year-to-date in 2025, outperforming the SPY and QQQ. This often happens during periods of economic uncertainty or when industrial and manufacturing investments are stronger than technology investments.
Of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, 19 are positive year-to-date in 2025—a sharp contrast to the Magnificent Seven, where only one of seven stocks is in the green this year.
Among the Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, these are the top gainers year-to-date that are each up by double digits:
<ul>
<li>Amgen Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMGN#NASDAQ">AMGN</a>): +17.5%</li>
<li>International Business Machines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBM#NYSE">IBM</a>): +16.4%</li>
<li>3M Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MMM#NYSE">MMM</a>): +14.2%</li>
<li>Coca-Cola (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>): +13.7%</li>
<li>Johnson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>): +12.8%</li>
<li>Visa Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/V#NYSE">V</a>): +10.9%</li>
</ul>
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>, NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>) shares are up 12.3% year-to-date in 2025, despite struggles from its top portfolio holding, Apple. The Warren Buffett-led conglomerate has a history of outperforming the S&amp;P 500, and 2025 could be another strong year.
Perhaps among the bigger surprises for outperformers in 2025 are Chinese stocks. Using <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent022825&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">the Benzinga Pro </a>screener tool and looking for the top performing stocks year-to-date with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more revealed Xpeng Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPEV#NYSE">XPEV</a>) and Alibaba Group Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) among the top performers up 82% and 57% respectively.
Chinese ETFs are also performing well in 2025, here are the returns of some of the largest:
<ul>
<li>KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>): +17.4%</li>
<li>iShares China Larce-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>): +17.2%</li>
<li>iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>): +15.9%</li>
</ul>
The strong returns of several Chinese stocks and the ETFs come as the country faces<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/44010093/trumps-plan-for-canada-mexico-china-tariffs-to-start-march-4-could-shake-stock-market"> proposed additional tariffs</a> from President Donald Trump.
With only two months of 2025 behind us, the landscape could change significantly in the next 10 months.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/25/01/43403758/exclusive-this-magnificent-7-stock-will-feel-the-pinch-of-feds-rate-decision-poll-shows">EXCLUSIVE: This &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; Stock Will Feel The Pinch Of Fed&#8217;s Rate Decision, Poll Shows</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

$BTC

AAPL

AMGN

AMZN

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

GOOG

GOOGL

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

XPEV

Bitcoin, Magnificent 7 Lose Safe-Haven Status In 2025 As China ETFs, Dow Stocks Outperform

President Donald Trump's plan to place tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a higher tariff on China will take place on March 4, a move that could impact multiple sectors and cause worry <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43442219/why-beer-tequila-avocados-cars-iphone-prices-could-rise-trumps-tariffs-on-canada-mexico-china-to-hurt-several-sectors">for American consumers.</a>
 What Happened: Trump's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/02/43965690/trumps-proposed-tariffs-could-deal-12-billion-blow-to-us-restaurants-industry-warns">proposed tariffs </a>on Canada and Mexico were paused on Feb. 3 for one month after agreements were reached with both nations over border security controls and efforts to improve trade relations.
Those pauses are now set to be lifted with Trump saying the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4, with China to get an additional 10% tariff on March 4 as well.
Trump had <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43926015/trump-confirms-tariffs-on-canada-mexico-will-take-effect-as-planned">said earlier this week</a> that the tariffs were still planned to go into effect, an item he confirmed in a Truth Social <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114076153524132682">post </a>Thursday morning.
"Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels. A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China," Trump said in his post.
The president alleges that more than 100,000 people died last year due to these drugs, with millions dying in the last two decades.
"We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled. China will likewise be charged and additional 10% Tariff on that date," he wrote.
Trump also said the April Second Reciprocal Tariff date will remain in "full force and effect," which follows a study being done on trade balances with countries worldwide.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43795579/warren-buffett-unfazed-by-trumps-tariff-threats-oracle-of-omaha-bets-on-mexico-beer">Warren Buffett Unfazed By Trump&#8217;s Tariff Threats: Oracle Of Omaha Bets On Mexico, Beer</a>
Why It's Important: Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China are expected to impact numerous sectors in the U.S., including automotive, food and beverage, beer and spirits, oil and consumer goods.
Benzinga <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/25/02/43827291/exclusive-will-trumps-tariffs-hurt-or-help-stock-market-59-say-this">recently asked</a> if the tariffs could impact stock market indexes like the S&amp;P 500, which is tracked by the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>).
&#8220;How will Trump&#8217;s tariffs affect the stock market?&#8221; Benzinga asked.
The results were:
<ul>
<li>Weigh down: 59%</li>
<li>Push higher: 23%</li>
<li>No real impact: 19%</li>
</ul>
The majority of respondents said Trump&#8217;s tariffs will send the stock market lower. The remaining voters were split nearly even between the stock market going higher as the result of tariffs or the tariffs not having a real impact on stock market returns.
Price Action: After initially trading down in premarket, stock indexes have turned positive Thursday. A strong<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/02/43991607/nvidia-q4-earnings-highlights-revenue-beat-eps-beat-demand-for-blackwell-is-amazing"> earnings report from</a> NVIDIA Corporation Wednesday and the stock trading higher Thursday could be offsetting tariff concerns.
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) is up 0.2% to $435.03 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $376.15 to $451.54.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) is up 0.4% to $591.11 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $493.86 to $613.23.
Country themed ETFs of the three nations to be hit with tariffs were down on Thursday.
iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) is down 0.3% to $51.33 Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $46.43 to $71.11.
iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>) is down 0.5% to $41.22 Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $35.74 to $43.33.
iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) is down 0.3% to $55.22 Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $38.40 to $59.78.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/01/43041374/exclusive-how-high-will-sp-500-go-under-donald-trump-in-2025-readers-are-optimistic-26-say-this">EXCLUSIVE: How High Will S&amp;P 500 Go Under Donald Trump In 2025? Readers Are Optimistic, 26% Say This…</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

News

Trump's Plan For Canada, Mexico, China Tariffs To Start March 4 Could Shake Stock Market

As China's tech sector stages a strong comeback, investors are increasingly looking at <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs as a way to gain exposure</a> to this space. 
Whether it's internet giants, broad technology firms, or a mix of leading Chinese companies, ETFs offer a diversified way to take a bite of surrounding China's innovation boom.
Here are three ETFs that provide investors with access to China's rebounding tech sector.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43315374/ai-etfs-in-focus-as-alibaba-challenges-deepseek-with-new-model">AI ETFs In Focus As Alibaba Challenges DeepSeek With New Model</a>
<ul>
<li>Invesco China Technology ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CQQQ#NYSE">CQQQ</a>): This ETF provides concentrated exposure to China's tech giants. It also mirrors the FTSE China Incl A 25% Technology Capped Index, which includes major players like Tencent (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TCEHY#OTC">TCEHY</a>), PDD Holdings (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>), and Baidu (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIDU#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>), companies at the forefront of AI, e-commerce, and cloud computing. Recently, Baidu Cloud and Tencent Cloud integrated DeepSeek&#8217;s AI model into their platforms. With DeepSeek's upward rise, both companies witnessed a surge, and pulled CQQQ up along with it. The ETF has rallied 13.5% year-to-date and 45% in the past year.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>): This ETF provides exposure to China's big internet names, mirroring the CSI Overseas China Internet Index. The fund&#8217;s holdings include major players like Alibaba (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>), Tencent, and Baidu. Alibaba's latest AI model has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43311376/alibaba-unveils-qwen25-max-claims-it-beats-deepseek-and-openai-in-ai-performance-race">reportedly outperformed</a> Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) Llama and DeepSeek's V3 in various tests. This led the company's stock to surge, lifting KWEB along with it. As Wall Street brokers turn more optimistic on China's valuation discount disappearing, KWEB stands to benefit from increased foreign inflows. The ETF has grown 12.6% year-to-date and 32.5% in the past year.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>): This ETF provides a broader exposure while maintaining access to substantial allocation to technology stocks. China's largest and most liquid companies, including Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan and Xiaomi are among MCHI&#8217;s holdings. HSBC recently noted that the valuation gap between China and emerging markets may narrow as global funds flow into Chinese stocks. Deutsche Bank echoed the sentiment.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Overview</h3>
The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently trading at 17 times forward earnings estimates, significantly cheaper than the Nasdaq 100's 27 times valuation, according data compiled by Bloomberg. This suggests ample room for price appreciation, making MCHI an appealing option. The ETF has climbed 8.32% this year thus far, and 31.25% in the past 12 months.
After years of regulatory headwinds and economic uncertainty, China's tech sector is making a roaring comeback. A surge in AI innovation and favorable valuations have propelled the Hang Seng Tech Index into a bull market, with Wall Street analysts increasingly bullish on the space, said Bloomberg in a report. Heavyweights like Xiaomi and Alibaba are among the companies leading the rally.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that analysts at Deutsche Bank argue that China's innovation-driven resurgence will force global investors to turn sharply toward the nation's stocks, despite geopolitical risks.
Favorable valuations have helped reinforce the upbeat sentiment. As Deutsche Bank's Peter Milliken put it in a research note: "We think 2025 is the year the investing world realizes China is outcompeting the rest of the world." 
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43565442/exclusive-defiance-ceo-talks-about-the-new-orcx-etf-launch-and-all-things-ai">EXCLUSIVE: Defiance CEO Talks About The New ORCX ETF Launch And All Things AI</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

CHIK

China Tech ETFs Surge As DeepSeek-Led AI Boom Fuels Bull Market

President Donald Trump's announced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China could impact many sectors and see retailers and companies raising prices on consumers to offset<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/02/43423288/trumps-tariffs-are-here-heres-what-will-get-more-expensive-from-canada-china-and-mexico"> the higher prices.</a>
Here's a look at the sectors and stocks that could be hurt the most by Trump's tariffs and retaliatory efforts by the three countries back on the U.S.
What Happened: Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43427091/as-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-americas-3-largest-trading-partners-this-macro-strategist-call">announced 25% tariffs </a>on imports from Canada and Mexico along with a 10% tariffs on items imported from China. Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced Monday the U.S. tariffs on Mexico have been paused for one month. 
Canada fought back with retaliatory measures on U.S. imports.
Trump said he spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and plans to speak to the leader again at 3 p.m. ET Monday.
The tariffs were met with anger in Canada where sports fans booed the playing of &#8220;The Star-Spangled Banner,&#8221; the U.S. national anthem, at NBA and NHL sporting events over the weekend, as reported by <a href="https://deadline.com/2025/02/u-s-national-anthem-booed-nhl-nba-games-canada-tariffs-1236276207/">Deadline</a>.
NBA and NHL games involving teams from both countries typically play national anthems ahead of games.
Goods and Sectors Impacted: Here's a look at the top imports from Canada, Mexico and China that will be impacted if the tariffs stick.
Beer and Spirits: One of the companies that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42220682/trump-tariffs-on-mexico-could-affect-beer-why-your-modelo-corona-could-cost-more-next-year">could be hit hardest</a> by the tariff news is Constellation Brands Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STZ#NYSE">STZ</a>), an alcohol company that holds the exclusive U.S. license for several of the top imported beer brands in America. Constellation imports brands like Modelo, Corona and Pacifico from Mexico, where they are brewed by Grupo Modelo, which is a unit of Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BUD#NYSE">BUD</a>).
Modelo is the top imported beer in the U.S., with Corona ranking second. Heineken and Dos Equis XX, which are imported by Heineken USA, a unit of Heineken NV (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HEINY#OTC">HEINY</a>), ranked third and fourth on the list of top imported beers. Dos Equis is manufactured in Mexico and imported to the U.S.
Constellation stock is down around 40% since it was flagged as a company to see pressure from tariffs back in November.
The U.S. is also a large importer of tequila, a sector that could be hit hard by tariffs on Mexico.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/24/12/42536470/costco-warns-that-tariffs-raise-prices-trump-team-says-trade-policies-will-make-life-affordable">Costco Warns That Tariffs Raise Prices, Trump Team Says Trade Policies Will &#8216;Make Life Affordable&#8217;</a>
Automotive: Several automotive companies like Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Honda Motor Co Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HMC#NYSE">HMC</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/12/42688941/are-us-vehicles-under-30000-a-thing-of-the-past-trumps-mexico-tariff-plans-could-change-auto-market">have sub-$30,000 vehicles</a> that are partially or fully built in Mexico and Canada. Tariffs on these countries could quickly make these sub-$30,000 vehicles cost more for consumers and eliminate options in the popular starting price point.
Avocados: American imports over 80% of its avocados from Mexico, which could lead to higher prices ahead of Super Bowl Sunday on Feb. 9, as <a href="https://nypost.com/2025/02/02/us-news/whats-going-to-get-hit-by-trumps-tariffs-avocados-modelo-and-iphones/">reported </a>by the New York Post. Stocks that could be impacted by higher avocado costs are Mission Produce Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVO#NASDAQ">AVO</a>), Calavo Growers, Inc. (NASDDAQ: CVGW) and Limoneira Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMNR#NASDAQ">LMNR</a>).
Fruits and Vegetables: Canada is the largest supplier of cherry tomatoes for the U.S., which could see higher produce costs for consumers and restaurants.
Smartphones: China is one of the largest exporters of smartphones to the U.S., accounting for an estimated 87% of production according to the report. The iPhone from Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) has 95% of production assembled in China as of 2023.
Toys: The Toy Association industry group estimates that 75% of all imported toys come from China, making the sector one area that could be significantly hit by higher tariffs. Hasbro Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HAS#NASDAQ">HAS</a>) and Mattel Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAT#NASDAQ">MAT</a>) are two stocks that could see pressure with the tariffs impacting one of their key sectors. &nbsp;
Clothing: Imported clothes from e-commerce companies including Shein and PDD Holdings &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PDD#NASDAQ">PDD</a>) brand Temu will see higher prices with the tariff on China. Canadian clothing companies Aritzia and Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LULU#NASDAQ">LULU</a>) will also be impacted by the tariff news. 
The footwear portion of the clothing sector could see the biggest impact with the Footwear Distributors &amp; Retailers of America estimating that 99% of shoes sold in the U.S. are imported. Nike Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) could be among the companies hit hardest by the tariff news.
Construction: The American Iron and Steel Institute estimates that 25% of American steel comes from Canada and 12% comes from Mexico, which means steel prices could go up. Canadian lumber is also a large export to the U.S., which makes up around 30% of all lumber the country uses. Other construction items like drywall, lime and gypsum come from Mexico, which will put more pressure on homebuilders. The tariffs could lead to home prices going up and putting further pressure on the sector.
Oil: The U.S. is a large importer<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42300450/trump-told-trudeau-canada-could-avoid-tariffs-by-becoming-51st-state-a-look-at-sectors-trade-war-could-impact"> of Canadian oil.</a> While oil will only see a 10% tariff compared to the 25% on other Canadian goods, the sector could likely see a large impact. Companies like Suncor Energy Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SU#NYSE">SU</a>), Enbridge (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENB#NYSE">ENB</a>), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CNQ#NYSE">CNQ</a>) and TC Pipelines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRP#NYSE">TRP</a>)&nbsp;could face significant impacts from the tariffs and a potential blow to the sector.
Transportation: Railway company Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CP#NYSE">CP</a>) and trucking companies Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ODFL#NASDAQ">ODFL</a>) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KNX#NYSE">KNX</a>) could be impacted by the tariffs and negative impact on trade between the United States and Canada.
Retailers: Dollar stores and discount retailers like Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DLTR#NASDAQ">DLTR</a>) could be<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42402629/trump-to-change-dollar-stores-for-good-dollar-tree-exec-says-prepared-to-act"> impacted by the tariffs.</a> Executives warned of the potential impact in late 2024 with the goal of offsetting the higher prices with new product sizes and negotiating lower costs with suppliers. The company also said it would consider stopping the sale of several items due to the planned tariffs.
Price Actions on Monday at publication: The iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>) is down 1.46% to $40.62.
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) is up 2.12% to $50.02.
The iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) is down 0.29% to $48.27.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43430259/miners-plead-for-collaboration-as-trade-wars-threaten-critical-mineral-supply-chains">Miners Plead For Collaboration As Trade Wars Threaten Critical Mineral Supply Chains</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Visuals6x via Shutterstock

Movers

CVGW

DLTR

HEINY

LMNR

LULU

ODFL

Why Beer, Tequila, Avocados, Cars, iPhone Prices Could Rise: Trump's Tariffs On Canada, Mexico, China To Hurt Several Sectors

Later adapted as a film, &#8220;The Big Short,&#8221; Michael Lewis&#8216; seminal book about the hedge funds that shorted the U.S. housing market before its eventual crash in 2008, shot several Wall Street pros to stardom. Among them were Porter Collins, Steve Eisman, Vincent Daniel and Danny Moses, who shorted mortgage-backed debt at FrontPoint Partners.
While the four made a killing from a short position in 2008, the Big Short alums are now focused more on going long. The traders reunited this week at an alternative investments conference in Miami, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-30/-big-short-traders-reuniting-for-hedge-fund-week-are-going-long">according</a> to Bloomberg.
Collins, co-founder of Seawolf Capital LLC, said on the panel that he has continued his spirit of contrarianism by investing in Asian markets, where valuations are currently cheaper. Daniel holds similar sentiments, but his rationale is the expectation that the U.S. Dollar will weaken, which would benefit foreign assets.
Michael Burry, the founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, was also featured prominently in the book and portrayed by Christian Bale in the film. Burry has also been bullish on China for several quarters — per his latest 13f filing, Scion Capital&#8217;s largest position is Alibaba Group Holding Ltd &#8211; ADR (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>).
The iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) tracks Chinese equities, which have traded cheaper than U.S. stocks for several years.
Moses is also looking at value in the market. The frequent CNBC guest likes gold, as reflected in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).
Eisman, a University of Pennsylvania alum, touted homebuilder stocks given the shortage of new homes in the U.S. and anticipated easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Also Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43350879/sam-bankman-frieds-parents-seek-presidential-pardon-from-trump">Sam Bankman-Fried&#8217;s Parents Seek Presidential Pardon From Donald Trump</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

'The Big Short' Goes Long: Men Who Predicted Housing Bubble Prefer Asian Stocks, Gold

President-elect Donald Trump has made tariffs one of the most talked about items ahead of his inauguration on Jan. 20. So far, he has not backed down from plans to place or increase tariffs on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">various trade partners</a>, including Canada, Mexico and China.
What Happened: On Tuesday, Trump took things a step further by naming a new agency tasked with overseeing tariffs.
"For far too long, we have relied on taxing our Great People using the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Though soft and pathetically weak Trade agreements, the American Economy has delivered growth and prosperity to the World, while taxing ourselves," Trump <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113827650534234057">said </a>in a post on Truth Social. "I am today announcing that I will create the EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE to collect our Tariffs, Duties and all Revenue that come from Foreign sources."
Trump intends for Jan. 20 — inauguration day — to be the birthdate for the so-called &#8220;External Revenue Service.&#8221; Normally, a new law would need to be passed first to create a new bureau or statutory body.
"We will begin charging those that make money off of us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fair share,&#8221; Trump added. 
It&#8217;s worth noting that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), under the Department of Homeland Security, already oversees tariffs and revenue from foreign countries. Its key functions include collecting customs duties and tariffs. The CBP also enforces trade laws and ensures revenue accountability as one of the federal government's largest revenue collectors.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers are already scrutinizing Trump&#8217;s External Revenue Service plan. "No amount of silly rebranding will hide the fact that Trump is planning a multi-trillion-dollar tax hike on American families and small businesses to pay for another round of tax handouts to the rich," Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, <a href="https://www.finance.senate.gov/chairmans-news/wyden-statement-on-trumps-so-called-external-revenue-service">said</a> in a statement.
Did You Know?
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<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent011425">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
Why It's Important: Trump's plans to place tariffs on three of the country's largest trade partners have led to many question marks on how the other countries will respond and if items will get more expensive for American consumers as a trade off.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/24/12/42536470/costco-warns-that-tariffs-raise-prices-trump-team-says-trade-policies-will-make-life-affordable">Retail executives</a> Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COST#NASDAQ">COST</a>) and Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DLTR#NASDAQ">DLTR</a>) have already warned about tariffs on earnings calls. Tariffs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42402629/trump-to-change-dollar-stores-for-good-dollar-tree-exec-says-prepared-to-act">could mean higher prices</a> for consumers, less product assortment or a change to product sizes, they say.
Trump joked that Canada <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/12/42300450/trump-told-trudeau-canada-could-avoid-tariffs-by-becoming-51st-state-a-look-at-sectors-trade-war-could-impact">could become the</a> 51st state of America to avoid tariffs. While the country <a href="https://apnews.com/article/canada-trump-chretien-51st-state-ad9749047d0b627eed56be22f43ea7cd">isn't ready</a> to do that, a new report signals the country could be working on avoiding the tariffs.
Canadian ambassador Kirsten Hillman said Canada is prepared to buy more items from the U.S., as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/canada-ambassador-us-trump-hillman-9ced5ba12cd6526a2bbb4a810fa9af18">reported </a>by the Associated Press. The move would ensure that there is not a deficit for America in its trade with Canada.
Hillman warned that a plan to put tariffs on all Canadian products will lead to prices going up for Americans.
"And at a time when the cost of living is challenging, when food prices are high, it seems like the wrong direction to go in," Hillman said.
Top items exported from Canada to the U.S. include oil, gas and automotive parts. These industries could see higher-priced goods under Trump's tariff plan.
Large Canadian oil companies Suncor Energy (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SU#NYSE">SU</a>), Enbridge (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENB#NYSE">ENB</a>), Canadian Natural Resources (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CNQ#NYSE">CNQ</a>) and TC Energy (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRP#NYSE">TRP</a>) could face significant impacts from the tariffs and a potential blow to the sector.
Railway company Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CP#NYSE">CP</a>) and trucking companies Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ODFL#NASDAQ">ODFL</a>) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KNX#NYSE">KNX</a>) could also be impacted by the tariffs and the negative impact on trade between the United States and Canada.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has recently shown a serious focus on migration and security, two of Trump's vocal demands to keep the U.S. from placing tariffs on the country, as reported by Reuters.
Sheinbaum has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/01/42895985/trump-and-mexican-president-sheinbaum-spirited-clash-over-territorial-renaming-tariffs-and-cartels">publicly sparred with Trump</a>, but it remains to be seen if she will be able to avoid tariffs for Mexico.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), General Motors Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Honda Motor Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HMC#NYSE">HMC</a>) are among the automotive companies that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/12/42688941/are-us-vehicles-under-30000-a-thing-of-the-past-trumps-mexico-tariff-plans-could-change-auto-market">have sub-$30,000 vehicles </a>that are partially or fully built in Mexico and Canada.
Higher tariffs on China could rattle the American economy as the country remains a major source of many exported goods. To get ahead of potential tariff increases, China saw its exports up 10.7% in the month of December, NPR <a href="https://www.npr.org/2025/01/13/nx-s1-5258024/china-exports-us-tariffs">reported</a>.
The growth was higher than estimates of 7% and could show that companies and China are taking proactive approaches to get ahead of higher-costing goods.
ETF Price Action: The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>) is up 0.3% to $39.94 on Tuesday. The ETF is up 11% over the last year and down 4.5% over the last month.
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) is up 1.5% to $48.15 on Tuesday. The ETF is down 25.3% over the last year and down 6.4% over the last month.
The iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) is up 2.3% to $44.89 on Tuesday. The ETF is up 19.2% over the last year and down 5.5% over the last month.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/42220682/trump-tariffs-on-mexico-could-affect-beer-why-your-modelo-corona-could-cost-more-next-year">Trump Tariffs On Mexico Could Affect Beer: Why Your Modelo, Corona Could Cost More Next Year</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

COST

Trump Wants Trade Partners To 'Start Paying,' Plans External Revenue Service To Oversee Tariffs

Just a few days ago, markets were encouraged by the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42789867/chinese-stocks-end-2024-in-green-after-a-3-year-retreat-franklin-ftse-china-etf-ishares-msci-china-etf-and-more-i">rebound in Chinese stocks</a> in 2024, after a three-year losing streak. However, a cloud of uncertainty looms over Chinese stocks and ETFs with exposure to them.
The Biden administration's call to blacklist two more Chinese tech giants—Tencent Holdings and Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL)—has sent shockwaves through global markets, as investors anticipate its impact on the already precarious <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">U.S.-China economic ties</a>.
Tencent, the world's largest gaming publisher, and CATL saw their shares plunge on Jan. 6.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/01/42865752/tesla-supplier-catl-riot-games-owner-tencent-plan-legal-action-over-pentagon-blacklist-deny-military-ties">Tesla Supplier CATL, Riot Games Owner Tencent Plan Legal Action Over Pentagon Blacklist, Deny Military Ties</a>
Notable ETFs feeling the heat of being on high alert include iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>), which allocates the biggest chunk of its holdings (15.40%) to Tencent. The net asset value inched down 1% on Jan. 7.
SPDR S&amp;P China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GXC#NYSE">GXC</a>): Known for its diversified holdings, this fund also allocates 11.42%, its largest for a single security, to Tencent. Other major Chinese firms like Alibaba (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>) and Meituan also hold key spots in the portfolio.
Invesco China Technology ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CQQQ#NYSE">CQQQ</a>), which dedicates 100% of its assets to Chinese technology stocks, is particularly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Moreover, Tencent takes up 10.76% of the total assets.
Additionally, ETFs with heavy exposure to Tesla stock, like the Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TESL#NYSE">TESL</a>) has also come in the line of fire, as CATL is a key battery supplier to the EV maker.
The move to add Tencent and CATL to a growing roster of &#8220;Chinese military companies&#8221; was part of the U.S.'s counteractive effort to China's military and industrial ambitions. While the designation doesn&#8217;t impose immediate sanctions, it discourages U.S. firms from doing business with these entities, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/us-blacklist-of-china-s-tech-giants-risks-even-faster-decoupling?srnd=homepage-asia&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">notes </a>Bloomberg, a sentiment that trickles down into investor psyche as well.
The blacklist now includes 134 Chinese companies, four of which happen to be China's top 20 by market capitalization, collectively valued at nearly $1 trillion.
ETF investors are now closely watching developments as funds with direct or indirect exposure to Chinese companies may face increased volatility.
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/01/42883477/amplify-to-liquidate-cannabis-focused-mjus-etf-as-regulatory-uncertainty-weighs-on-sector">Amplify To Liquidate Cannabis-Focused MJUS ETF As Regulatory Uncertainty Weighs On Sector</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

ASHS

TESL

China-Focused ETFs Face Uncertainty As US Blacklists Tencent, CATL

In 2024, Chinese stocks finally rebounded from challenges like the pandemic, property market struggles, and weak consumer confidence, ditching a three-year losing streak despite a slight dip on the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">final trading day. </a>
The CSI 300, which tracks major companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, climbed 14.7% last year, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 12.8%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index jumped 17.7% for the year, clocking its first annual gain in five years. Analysts at Value Partners, as reported by Reuters, attributed the rally to stronger-than-expected policy support from Chinese authorities, including interest rate cuts, property incentives, and funding programs to boost stock buying.
Banking stocks stood out as top performers in China, increasing 34.7%, with the biggest state banks soaring to multi-year highs. The chip sector&#8217;s growth is also worth mentioning, moving 53.9% northward as investors leaned into domestic semiconductor firms amid U.S. restrictions.
Interestingly, according to Reuters, strategists suggest that the market is nearing the end of &#8220;policy expectation-driven&#8221; trading, with optimism about continued dividends in 2025 despite potential disruptions from U.S. political changes. 
Also, taking into consideration what China President Xi Jinping said in his annual new year&#8217;s eve speech, China's GDP is likely to grow <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-31/xi-says-china-s-2024-gdp-growth-expected-to-be-around-5?srnd=homepage-asia" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">around 5%</a> in 2024, meaning it is set to meet its official target. Jinping also mentioned continued economic support measures and more proactive macroeconomic policies for 2025.
Now that we have briefly examined what China&#8217;s future holds, let&#8217;s look at how some Chinese stock-focused ETFs are poised to perform.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42772220/us-global-launches-technology-and-aerospace-defense-etf-why-its-allocation-makes-sense">US Global Launches Technology And Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF: Why Its Allocation Makes Sense</a>
Franklin FTSE China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FLCH#NYSE">FLCH</a>) is an underdog among China-focused ETFs, with $145.27 million in assets under management. According to Franklin Templeton, FLCH "provides access to the Chinese stock market, allowing investors to precisely gain exposure to China at a low cost," with targeted exposure to large- and mid-sized companies in China. 
The low 0.19% expense ratio is a relief for investors outside China, as investing in Chinese stocks is expensive. Tencent Holdings (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TCEHY#OTC">TCEHY</a>) holds the biggest piece of the holdings pie, with 14.38% allocation, followed by Alibaba Group Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>). The fund has generated 15.03% returns in 2024.
iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) has around $5.4 billion in AUM, a much bigger ETF than FLCH in volume, with an expense ratio of 0.59%. Despite the expense ratio being on the higher side, the fund has grown 21.11% in 2024, reflecting positive demand among investors. Coincidentally, this ETF also allocates the biggest chunk of its holdings (16.59%) to Tencent, and the second largest piece (8.13%) to Alibaba.
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>), as the name suggests, focuses on Chinese blue-chip stocks, and has an AUM of $7.1 billion. The high-end expense ratio of 0.74% did not deter investors from rushing into the fund, pushing the price up by 23.31% through 2024. The fund provides exposure to 50 of the largest Chinese stocks in a single portfolio, offering broad coverage of major companies.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42780567/quantum-computing-stocks-like-rigetti-computing-are-soaring-and-this-etf-lets-investors-pa">Quantum Computing Stocks Like Rigetti Computing Are Soaring And This ETF Lets Investors Participate In The Boom Story</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

FLCH

Chinese Stocks Rebound In 2024 After 3-Year Slump: 3 ETFs To Watch

China may be playing its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/china">biggest economic card yet. </a>
According to sources cited by Reuters this week, Chinese policymakers are considering allowing the yuan to weaken significantly in 2025 to counter the economic impact of a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports by the United States. 
This move would mark a major shift in Beijing's currency strategy as the country grapples with mounting economic pressures.
But will it actually work? 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Weaker Yuan: A Double-Edged Sword?</h3>
President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs—10% on all imports and a massive 60% on Chinese goods—have prompted Beijing to consider devaluation as a buffer. A weaker yuan could theoretically make Chinese exports cheaper and offset the sting of U.S. tariffs.
Yet, Beijing is walking a tightrope. 
According to Lynn Song, an analyst at ING, the People's Bank of China is expected to &#8220;mount a strong defense&#8221; of the yuan. The central bank is acutely aware that if the renminbi falls too sharply, it could trigger even harsher retaliatory measures from Washington.
In response to the rumors, Financial News, a PBOC-affiliated publication, insisted the yuan remains on solid footing and predicted the currency could stabilize and strengthen by the end of the year.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China's Real Problem: A Balance Sheet Recession</h3>
Tariffs aren't China's only problem. 
The country is facing a multi-front economic battle, with a housing market that's imploding, a weak stock market, and slowing consumer activity.
"The gentle de-leveraging of the housing market that policymakers had in mind turned into a vicious balance sheet recession," said Alfonso Peccatiello, chief investing officer at Palinuro Capital and founder of The Macro Compass. 
"Trillions in wealth tied to real estate have been wiped out since 2021."
A balance sheet recession is brutal. In this scenario, consumers and businesses prioritize repairing their finances over spending or investing, rendering typical monetary policy tools like interest rate cuts or currency devaluation largely ineffective.
This type of economic slowdown recalls the eurozone debt crisis of 2011-2012, when fiscal austerity measures rendered monetary policy largely ineffective in stimulating the real economy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Beijing's Response So Far</h3>
China&#8217;s policy response thus far has lacked courage, to say the least. 
Authorities have floated mentions of small-scale fiscal stimulus, though these efforts lack the size and scope to move the needle. 
The government has also set up mechanisms to deter investors from shorting Chinese stocks, aiming to stabilize markets. Additionally, the central bank has slashed interest rates aggressively to boost liquidity. 
Despite these interventions, the economy has failed to gain meaningful traction, leaving analysts and investors skeptical about Beijing's strategy.
The iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) – a key benchmark tracking Chinese equities – continues to remain nearly 50% below its record highs achieved in February 2021. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why a Weaker Yuan Won't Fix This</h3>
The idea of weakening the yuan might sound like a magic bullet, but economists aren't sold on the effectiveness of this strategy.
"In a balance sheet recession, consumers and corporates can&#8217;t be encouraged to spend more by cutting interest rates or weakening the currency," Peccatiello said. 
"They are bleeding, and they see their net worth declining due to continued weakness in the property market."
Simply put, a weaker currency won&#8217;t rebuild shattered wealth or restore confidence among Chinese households and businesses.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's The Real Solution?</h3>
For Peccatiello, the solution for China may lie in implementing a large, targeted fiscal stimulus.
Rather than broad, unspecific measures, some suggest that the government could consider directing significant spending toward struggling corporations and consumers.
The question remains: Will Beijing take substantial steps toward fiscal stimulus?
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Photo: Shutterstock

China Eyes Yuan Devaluation To Counter Trump's Tariffs: Will It Work?

Texas Governor&nbsp;Greg Abbott (R-Texas) has directed state agencies to cease investments in China and divest existing ones. This decision, announced in a letter dated Nov. 21, highlights security and financial risks associated with Chinese investments, 
What Happened: Abbott&#8217;s directive argues that this aggression could elevate the financial risks tied to Chinese investments. The governor&#8217;s letter explicitly bans Texas investing entities from making new investments in China.
Moreover, Abbott has instructed these entities to divest from any current Chinese investments at the earliest feasible opportunity. 
&#8220;Texas will defend and safeguard itself and our public treasury from any potential threat, including those posed by the CCP,&#8221; the statement read.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42103633/chinese-court-affirms-cryptocurrency-ownership-as-legal-as-bitcoin-breaks-97k?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chinese Judge Cites &#8216;High-Pressure Crackdown&#8217; On Speculation In Judgment Declaring Crypto Ownership Legal As Bitcoin Moves Past $97K</a>
Why It Matters: The directive from Governor Abbott comes amid escalating U.S.-China tensions. Recently, the U.S. House of Representatives advanced two Republican bills aiming to reinstate the U.S. Justice Department's "China Initiative." This initiative seeks to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40831428/house-gop-advances-bills-to-reinstate-justice-departments-china-initiative-despite-white-house-disap">curb espionage activities</a> targeting U.S. intellectual property and academic institutions. The bills were part of the House Republican's &#8220;China Week,&#8221; which saw over two dozen China-related legislative measures passed.
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed to impose 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42025284/xi-jinping-tells-joe-biden-china-is-ready-to-work-with-trump-as-tariff-threat-looms">expressed a willingness</a> to collaborate with the U.S. government, regardless of the administration in power. This statement was made during a meeting with President Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima. 
Meanwhile, ETFs that allow investment into China have dropped during the past one month. As of Nov. 22nd, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) has dropped by 5.97% while iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) fell by 5.13%. Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGJ#NASDAQ">PGJ</a>) fell by 5.41% and iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) dropped by 5.54%.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Wikimedia Commons

General

Texas Governor Mandates State Agencies To Divest From China: 'Will Defend And Safeguard Itself...From Any Potential Threat'

Major Chinese fund companies have&nbsp;announced a reduction in fees&nbsp;for a selection&nbsp;of equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This move intensifies the price war in the booming $400 billion ETF market.
What Happened: The fee cuts come a day after&nbsp;Wu Qing, China&#8217;s chief securities regulator, expressed support for index investment and fee reform in the fund industry. ETFs, which&nbsp;typically track an index and&nbsp;trade on exchanges, have seen significant growth this year as investors turn away from underperforming active fund managers, Reuters&nbsp;reported on Wednesday.
China Asset Management Co&nbsp;(ChinaAMC), leading the ETF market, announced it would reduce fees on&nbsp;eight ETF products, including the&nbsp;160 billion yuan China SSE 50 ETF. The management fee will drop to 0.15% from 0.5%, and the custodian fee to 0.05% from 0.1%.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/41862692/steve-madden-announces-plans-to-move-production-to-avoid-trump-tariffs-but-theres-a-catch?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Steve Madden Announces Plans To Move Production To Avoid Trump Tariffs, But There&#8217;s A Catch</a>
Other fund companies such as&nbsp;E Fund Management,&nbsp;Huatai-PineBridge Fund Management,&nbsp;Harvest Fund Management, and&nbsp;HuaAn Fund Management&nbsp;have made similar announcements. This trend is expected to attract more capital into the market, with net inflows into China&#8217;s onshore ETFs surpassing 900 billion yuan this year, according to BNP Paribas. 
Why It Matters: The fee reduction by major Chinese fund companies comes amid a backdrop of economic measures and market fluctuations. In October, investor sentiment was dampened when anticipated large-scale economic stimulus measures from Chinese authorities did not materialize. Despite <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41316058/chinese-stocks-etfs-struggle-as-multi-trillion-yuan-stimulus-hopes-fall-short-yet-m">signals of increased fiscal support,</a> the absence of a substantial economic package left traders underwhelmed.
Furthermore, China&#8217;s decision to cut interest rates in late October led to a decline in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41426987/us-listed-chinese-etfs-drop-after-beijing-cuts-interest-rates">several China-focused ETFs</a> in the U.S. This move, aimed at stimulating economic growth, instead raised concerns among investors about its broader implications.
Meanwhile, U.S.-listed Chinese ETFs have been providing American investors exposure to Chinese equities, bonds, or a combination of both, while being traded on U.S. stock exchanges. These ETFs are a convenient way for investors to gain diversified exposure to China&#8217;s economic growth without the complexities of directly investing in foreign markets. According to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>), iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>), Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGJ#NASDAQ">PGJ</a>), and iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) are some of the popular names on the list.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock

Chinese Fund Giants Slash ETF Fees Amid Intense Market Competition

Renowned tech investor and Palantir Technologies&#8217; co-founder&nbsp;Peter Thiel&nbsp;has made a daring prediction about the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/24/11/41902202/trumps-china-hawks-rumored-for-top-roles-yuan-hits-3-month-low">60% tariff on Chinese goods</a>.
What Happened: On Thursday, during an interview with The Free Press, Thiel suggested that such a tariff would be &#8220;very, very bad&#8221; for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/11/41912771/trump-presidency-magnificent-7-stock-impact-benzinga-readers-pick-tech-titan-at-most-risk-following-2024-election">Chinese companies</a> and China as a whole.
However, he believes the impact on American consumers would be &#8220;mildly negative&#8221; as manufacturing would likely shift away from China.
According to Thiel, shifting manufacturing from China to Vietnam would significantly harm China, and have only a minor impact on American consumers. From a geopolitical perspective, he argued, this move would align closely with American strategic interests.
See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/24/11/42018463/trumps-post-election-rally-fades-dollar-surges-to-over-1-year-highs-powell-puts-december-interest-rate-cut-into-question-this-week-in-the-market?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s Post-Election Rally Fades, Dollar Surges To Over 1-Year Highs, Powell Puts December Interest Rate Cut Into Question: This Week In The Market</a>
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Peter Thiel on the Triumph of the Counter-Elites" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wwJV_NuN43Y?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
Why It Matters: Earlier this year, Chinese stocks <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/05/38782459/china-focused-etfs-have-become-political-footballs-in-us-as-investor-apprehension-leads-to-large-sca#google_vignette">experienced a notable rally</a>, pushing the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai to its highest point since September 2023.
However, Trump's proposed tariffs, which could reach as high as 60% on Chinese goods, along with additional import hikes on other nations, could disrupt these investments.
A day after Trump won, China-linked ETFs witnessed a sharp fall after rallying for nearly two months.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>China-linked ETFs</td>
<td>Share Price Drop On Nov. 6, 2024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>)</td>
<td>2.01%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>)</td>
<td>2.70%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>)</td>
<td>2.94%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
U.S.-listed Chinese stocks such as Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BABA#NYSE">BABA</a>), JD.com (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>), Baidu (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIDU#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>), NIO Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NIO#NYSE">NIO</a>), Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LI#NASDAQ">LI</a>), and XPeng Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPEV#NYSE">XPEV</a>) also <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/11/41773691/us-listed-chinese-stocks-like-alibaba-jd-nio-fall-after-trumps-win-whats-going-on">saw a decline in trading</a> following Trump&#8217;s win.
The imposition of such tariffs could strain China's economic growth, negatively impacting the performance of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/11/41912771/trump-presidency-magnificent-7-stock-impact-benzinga-readers-pick-tech-titan-at-most-risk-following-2024-election">China-focused ETFs</a>, particularly those tied to the tech sector and large-cap companies, making them less attractive to investors.
Despite the immediate economic challenges that such a tariff would pose, some experts believe that China may view Trump's return to the White House as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/11/41870809/china-may-benefit-from-trumps-return-to-white-house-despite-his-tariff-plans-says-expert-short-term-pain-but-potentially-long-term-strategic-gain">an opportunity for strategic advantage</a>.
Earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping also expressed China's willingness to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/42025284/xi-jinping-tells-joe-biden-china-is-ready-to-work-with-trump-as-tariff-threat-looms">collaborate with the U.S. government</a>, regardless of the administration in power.
Image via Wikimedia
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Peter Thiel Says Trump's 60% China Tariff Would Be 'Very, Very Bad' For Beijing, Here's What's At Stake

Emerging market stocks have dropped to levels last seen in mid-September, with the downturn exacerbated by Donald Trump's victory and a Republican sweep<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump"> of the U.S. Congress.</a>
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EEM#NYSE">EEM</a>) has slumped 7% over the past month, with the iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) and the iShares Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) underperforming — down 10.1% and 7.8%, respectively.
Trump&#8217;s win and full Republican control of Washington, D.C. raise critical questions for emerging markets (EM). What does a more protectionist U.S. policy and potential fiscal loosening mean for emerging economies, currencies and credit conditions?
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Emerging Markets Falling?</h1>
Trump's election has sparked concerns over possible shifts in U.S. fiscal and trade policies that could have a ripple effect on global markets. 
&#8220;The prospects of looser fiscal policy and more trade protectionism have increased short- and long-term U.S. interest rates, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs in EMs,&#8221; according to Elijah Oliveros-Rosen, chief emerging markets economist at S&amp;P Global Ratings.
Higher U.S. interest rates tend to strengthen the dollar, making it more expensive for emerging markets to service dollar-denominated debt. This tighter financial environment has already started affecting emerging market currencies, which have weakened across the board against the dollar.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="503" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1024x503.png" alt="" class="wp-image-648524" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1024x503.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-768x377.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159-1536x754.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/14120359/image-159.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">EM Currency Depreciation: A Major Concern</h1>
Following Trump's win, most EM currencies — especially in Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America — have depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar.
Investors worry the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in response to Trump&#8217;s policies, which could include new tariffs or stricter immigration rules. A stronger dollar and potential trade barriers pose serious risks for EM economies reliant on exports and foreign investment.
The Mexican peso, in particular, has been hit hard by Trump's election, as uncertainty over trade and immigration policies toward Mexico has made investors skittish. 
Private fixed investment in Mexico, which has been strong over the last two years due to nearshoring, could lose momentum until there's more clarity on U.S. policy.
&#8220;During the Trump 2016-2020 administration (excluding the pandemic), private fixed investment in Mexico declined 4.5%,&#8221; S&amp;P Global wrote in a report. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tightening Financial Conditions For EM</h1>
The rise in U.S. interest rates is tightening financial conditions for EMs, which rely heavily on affordable credit to finance growth. 
With borrowing costs rising, fiscal vulnerabilities in these markets could become more pronounced, potentially limiting governments' ability to stimulate their economies.
"Volatility in emerging market assets is expected to remain elevated for some time due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy details including trade, fiscal, and regulatory environment," said Oliveros-Rosen. 
Investors are likely to remain on edge until the new administration clarifies its approach, particularly toward trade.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On Credit Ratings, Market Activity</h1>
The tightening financial environment is already impacting EM credit ratings.
 While the number of issuers rated ‘CCC+' and below has decreased slightly, indicating some deleveraging, many EM companies are still struggling with high debt levels. Riskier credits have been able to refinance for the first time since November 2021, but this could come at the cost of reduced capital expenditures in 2025-2026.
Corporate bond spreads in EMs remain tight, supporting robust market activity for speculative-grade issuers. With two months left in 2024, all EM regions — except for Asia — have already surpassed their average bond issuance volumes from the last seven years. Both benchmark and corporate yields have edged up amid the uncertainty, reflecting a more cautious investor sentiment.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Long-Term Outlook: Headwinds, Opportunities</h1>
Looking ahead, EMs face a mixed outlook. In the near term, "volatility in emerging market assets is expected to remain elevated for some time due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policy details including, trade, fiscal, and regulatory environment,&#8221; S&amp;P Global wrote. 
Yet, demographics, technology, and the global energy transition could provide structural growth tailwinds over the next decade, potentially offsetting some of the risks posed by a protectionist U.S. stance. 
Supply-chain shifts and nearshoring trends, particularly in regions like Latin America, may also help some EMs attract investment.
As Oliveros-Rosen stated, "The specific policies announced by the next U.S. administration could either further amplify or reverse the recent tightening in financial conditions, with implications for EM growth and credit conditions."
In other words, the ball is in Washington's court. Whether EMs face a full-blown crisis or simply a period of adjustment will depend largely on Trump's policy choices in 2025.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Emerging Markets

Trump's Red Wave Pushes Emerging Market Stocks To 2-Month Lows: Volatility 'Expected To Remain Elevated'

China&#8217;s recent decision to cut interest rates has led to a decline in several China-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The move, aimed at stimulating economic growth, has instead sparked concerns among investors about its broader implications.
What Happened: Several China-focused ETFs experienced declines following the country&#8217;s interest rate reduction. According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) fell by 2.30% on Monday pre-market. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) saw a decrease of 1.74%, while the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PGJ#NASDAQ">PGJ</a>) dropped by 0.85%. iShares MSCI China ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NASDAQ">MCHI</a>) also dropped by 1.56%.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41415419/kevin-oleary-calls-for-400-tariffs-on-china-but-his-shark-tank-co-star-and-friend-mark-cuban-fires-b?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kevin O&#8217;Leary Calls for 400% Tariffs On China, But His &#8216;Shark Tank&#8217; Co-Star And Friend Mark Cuban Fires Back With Business Concerns</a>
These declines come amid China&#8217;s decision to cut interest rates, a move that typically aims to stimulate economic growth. However, the immediate impact on these ETFs suggests investor concerns about the broader implications of such monetary policy adjustments.
Why It Matters: The rate cuts come at a time when investor sentiment towards Chinese markets is already fragile. Hopes for a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41316058/chinese-stocks-etfs-struggle-as-multi-trillion-yuan-stimulus-hopes-fall-short-yet-m"> multi-trillion-yuan stimulus</a> package were dashed when Chinese authorities failed to deliver the anticipated measures. This lack of concrete fiscal support has left traders underwhelmed, despite signals of increased fiscal support.
Further compounding the issue, U.S.-listed Chinese stock<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41424736/alibaba-nio-baidu-stocks-decline-amid-chinas-rate-cuts-whats-going-on">s also experienced a downturn</a> as Beijing implemented a reduction in its primary lending rates. Major companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd , Baidu, Inc. , and NIO Inc. saw significant declines. This indicates a broader market reaction to China&#8217;s monetary policy adjustments, affecting both domestic and international investors.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a> and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock

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