最新ニュース Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) 株価情報

SHAKE SHACK INC - CLASS A

Shake Shack

Shake Shack Inc is a roadside burger stand. It serves a classic American menu of premium burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, beer, wine and more. The company's burgers are made with a whole-muscle blend of all-natural, hormone and antibiotic-free Angus beef, ground fresh daily, cooked to order, and served on a non-genetically modified organism (GMO) potato bun. Its menu focuses on food and beverages, crafted from a range of classic American foods. The company serves draft Root Beer, seasonal freshly-squeezed lemonade, organic fresh brewed iced tea, cold brew coffee, organic apple juice, and Shack20 bottled water.

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Shake Shack Inc

On CNBC's &#8220;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/07/final-trades-shake-shack-wynn-resorts-spotify-and-the-iyf.html">Halftime Report Final Trades</a>,&#8221; Joshua Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, said he is bullish on Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>), which reported quarterly earnings last week. The company will open 40 to 50 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SHAK/earnings">new company-operated stores this year, he noted.</a>
On May 1, the company reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of 14 cents, missing the street view of 16 cents. Quarterly sales of $320.90 million (up 10.5%) missed the analyst consensus estimate of $328.08 million.
Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners said the international expansion makes Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WYNN#NASDAQ">WYNN</a>) a growth stock.
On the earnings front, Wynn Resorts reported quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share on May 6, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.19 per share. The company also reported quarterly sales of $1.70 billion, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.74 billion.
Don't forget to check out our <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket/">premarket coverage here</a>
Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer of NB Private Wealth, named iShares U.S. Financials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYF#NYSE">IYF</a>) as her final trade, saying lack of new regulation is a driver here.
Joseph M. Terranova, senior managing director for Virtus Investment Partners, said Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>) hit another all-time high.
Spotify reported quarterly earnings of $1.13 per share on April 29, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.33. However, the company&#8217;s quarterly sales of $4.41 billion (4.19 billion euros), up 15% year over year, beat the analyst consensus estimate of $4.20 billion.
Price Action:
<ul>
<li>Shake Shack shares climbed 3.3% to close at $101.93 on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Wynn Resorts shares rose 0.7% to $84.12 during Wednesday's session.</li>
<li>iShares U.S. Financials ETF rose 0.6% on Wednesday..</li>
<li>Spotify shares climbed 3.8% to settle at $657.10.</li>
</ul>
Check This Out: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45250672/wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts-give-their-take-on-3-industrials-stocks-delivering-high-dividend-yields">Wall Street&#8217;s Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Industrials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Spotify, Shake Shack, Wynn Resorts And More: CNBC's 'Final Trades'

Analyst Ratings

CNBC Halftime Report Final Trades: Shake Shack, Wynn Resorts, Spotify Technology, iShares U.S. Financial ETF

JP Morgan analyst John Ivankoe maintains Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Underweight and lowers the price target from $105 to $100.

Price Target

JP Morgan Maintains Underweight on Shake Shack, Lowers Price Target to $100

Raymond James analyst Brian Vaccaro reiterates Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Strong Buy and lowers the price target from $145 to $140.

Reiteration

Raymond James Reiterates Strong Buy on Shake Shack, Lowers Price Target to $140

WIIM

Shake Shack shares are trading higher after Baird raised its price target on the stock from $85 to $90.

Providing a diverse range of perspectives from bullish to bearish, 14 analysts have published ratings on Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) in the last three months.
In the table below, you'll find a summary of their recent ratings, revealing the shifting sentiments over the past 30 days and comparing them to the previous months.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th align="right">Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Indifferent</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bearish</th>
<th align="right">Bearish</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Total Ratings</td>
<td align="right">5</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">6</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Last 30D</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1M Ago</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2M Ago</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3M Ago</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The 12-month price targets assessed by analysts reveal further insights, featuring an average target of $112.79, a high estimate of $154.00, and a low estimate of $85.00. A decline of 10.78% from the prior average price target is evident in the current average. 
<img src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/1746194420_0.png" alt="price target chart" />
<h2>Deciphering Analyst Ratings: An In-Depth Analysis</h2>
In examining recent analyst actions, we gain insights into how financial experts perceive Shake Shack. The following summary outlines key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Analyst</th>
<th>Analyst Firm</th>
<th>Action Taken</th>
<th>Rating</th>
<th>Current Price Target</th>
<th>Prior Price Target</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>David Tarantino</td>
<td>Baird</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$90.00</td>
<td>$85.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Andrew Charles</td>
<td>TD Securities</td>
<td>Maintains</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$105.00</td>
<td>$105.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dennis Geiger</td>
<td>UBS</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$100.00</td>
<td>$140.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeffrey Bernstein</td>
<td>Barclays</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Overweight</td>
<td>$100.00</td>
<td>$155.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jake Bartlett</td>
<td>Truist Securities</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$131.00</td>
<td>$154.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chris O'Cull</td>
<td>Stifel</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Hold</td>
<td>$97.00</td>
<td>$120.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Brian Bittner</td>
<td>Oppenheimer</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Outperform</td>
<td>$125.00</td>
<td>$155.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>David Tarantino</td>
<td>Baird</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$85.00</td>
<td>$98.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alton Stump</td>
<td>Loop Capital</td>
<td>Announces</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$127.00</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Anthony Trainor</td>
<td>Wells Fargo</td>
<td>Announces</td>
<td>Equal-Weight</td>
<td>$95.00</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>John Ivankoe</td>
<td>JP Morgan</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Underweight</td>
<td>$105.00</td>
<td>$107.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jake Bartlett</td>
<td>Truist Securities</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$154.00</td>
<td>$143.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nick Setyan</td>
<td>Wedbush</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$125.00</td>
<td>$115.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Andrew Charles</td>
<td>TD Securities</td>
<td>Maintains</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$140.00</td>
<td>$140.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Key Insights:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Action Taken: Analysts frequently update their recommendations based on evolving market conditions and company performance. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise' or 'Lower' their stance, it reflects their reaction to recent developments related to Shake Shack. This information provides a snapshot of how analysts perceive the current state of the company.</li>
<li>Rating: Analysts unravel qualitative evaluations for stocks, ranging from 'Outperform' to 'Underperform'. These ratings offer insights into expectations for the relative performance of Shake Shack compared to the broader market.</li>
<li>Price Targets: Analysts provide insights into price targets, offering estimates for the future value of Shake Shack's stock. This comparison reveals trends in analysts' expectations over time.</li>
</ul>
Assessing these analyst evaluations alongside crucial financial indicators can provide a comprehensive overview of Shake Shack's market position. Stay informed and make well-judged decisions with the assistance of our Ratings Table.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SHAK/analyst-ratings?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=analyst-ratings&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Stay up to date on Shake Shack analyst ratings.</a>
<h2>About Shake Shack</h2>
Shake Shack Inc is a roadside burger stand. It serves a classic American menu of premium burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle-cut fries, shakes, beer, wine and more. The company's burgers are made with a whole-muscle blend of all-natural, hormone and antibiotic-free Angus beef, ground fresh daily, cooked to order, and served on a non-genetically modified organism (GMO) potato bun. Its menu focuses on food and beverages, crafted from a range of classic American foods. The company serves draft Root Beer, seasonal freshly-squeezed lemonade, organic fresh brewed iced tea, cold brew coffee, organic apple juice, and Shack20 bottled water.
<h3>Unraveling the Financial Story of Shake Shack</h3>
Market Capitalization Analysis: The company exhibits a lower market capitalization profile, positioning itself below industry averages. This suggests a smaller scale relative to peers.
Revenue Growth: Over the 3M period, Shake Shack showcased positive performance, achieving a revenue growth rate of 14.83% as of 31 December, 2024. This reflects a substantial increase in the company's top-line earnings. When compared to others in the Consumer Discretionary sector, the company excelled with a growth rate higher than the average among peers.
Net Margin: The company's net margin is below industry benchmarks, signaling potential difficulties in achieving strong profitability. With a net margin of 2.65%, the company may need to address challenges in effective cost control.
Return on Equity (ROE): Shake Shack's ROE is below industry standards, pointing towards difficulties in efficiently utilizing equity capital. With an ROE of 1.88%, the company may encounter challenges in delivering satisfactory returns for shareholders.
Return on Assets (ROA): The company's ROA is below industry benchmarks, signaling potential difficulties in efficiently utilizing assets. With an ROA of 0.52%, the company may need to address challenges in generating satisfactory returns from its assets.
Debt Management: Shake Shack's debt-to-equity ratio is below the industry average at 1.72, reflecting a lower dependency on debt financing and a more conservative financial approach.
<h2>The Basics of Analyst Ratings</h2>
Ratings come from analysts, or specialists within banking and financial systems that report for specific stocks or defined sectors (typically once per quarter for each stock). Analysts usually derive their information from company conference calls and meetings, financial statements, and conversations with important insiders to reach their decisions.
Analysts may supplement their ratings with predictions for metrics like growth estimates, earnings, and revenue, offering investors a more comprehensive outlook. However, investors should be mindful that analysts, like any human, can have subjective perspectives influencing their forecasts.
Which Stocks Are Analysts Recommending Now?
Benzinga Edge gives you instant access to all major analyst upgrades, downgrades, and price targets. Sort by accuracy, upside potential, and more. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-checkout/?t=be8be9arja3be22bz21&amp;adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=analyst-ratings&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Click here to stay ahead of the market</a>.
This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

Forecasting The Future: 14 Analyst Projections For Shake Shack

Baird analyst David Tarantino maintains Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Neutral and raises the price target from $85 to $90.

Baird Maintains Neutral on Shake Shack, Raises Price Target to $90

Shake Shack, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) shares are trading higher on Thursday <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/movers" rel="noreferrer noopener">after reporting first-quarter results.</a>
The company reported quarterly adjusted earnings per share of 14 cents, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/05/b45129639/shake-shack-announces-first-quarter-2025-financial-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">missing the street view of 16 cents</a>. Quarterly sales of $320.90 million (up 10.5%) missed the analyst consensus estimate of $328.08 million.
System-wide sales reached $489.4 million, marking a 10.4% increase year over year, while Same-Shack sales rose slightly by 0.2% year over year.
Operating income rose to $2.8 million, compared to breakeven in the year-ago period. Restaurant-level profit was $64.2 million compared with
$54.746 million a year ago. Restaurant-level profit margin expanded to 20.7% from 19.5% a year ago
Adjusted EBITDA rose 13.5% year over year to $40.7 million.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/restaurants/25/04/44907247/restaurant-sector-q1-volatilty-from-weather-inflation-analyst-lowers-price-targets" rel="noreferrer noopener">Restaurant Sector Q1 Volatilty From Weather, Inflation — Analyst Lowers Price Targets</a>
In the quarter under review, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 12.7% from 12.4% a year ago.
The company exited the quarter with cash and equivalents worth $312.92 million. Inventories totaled $5.312 million.
Long-term debt at quarter end expanded slightly to $246.945 million from $246.683 million at December 25.
The company said that it opened four new company-operated Shacks, including two drive-thrus. It also oened seven new licensed Shacks.
Outlook: "We are <a target="_blank" href="https://s27.q4cdn.com/357966323/files/doc_financials/2025/q1/1Q25-Shareholder-Letter.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">planning </a>for food and paper inflationary pressures to remain in 2025, led by beef," the company said.
Shake Shack expects second-quarter sales to range between $346 million and $353 million, below the consensus estimate of $355.62 million.
Shake Shack widened its FY2025 sales guidance to a range of $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion, compared to the prior range of $1.45 billion to $1.48 billion and the $1.46 billion analyst estimate.
The company expects at least 50 bps expansion for restaurant-level profit margin per year.
Price Action: SHAK shares are trading lower by 0.05% to $87.70 at last check Thursday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/05/45133096/this-is-how-much-it-will-cost-general-motors-from-trumps-tariff-policy" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">This Is How Much It Will Cost General Motors From Trump's Tariff Policy</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by Ned Snowman via Shutterstock

Earnings

Equities

Guidance

General

What's Going On With Shake Shack Stock On Thursday?

TD Securities analyst Andrew Charles reiterates Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Buy and maintains $105 price target.

TD Securities Reiterates Buy on Shake Shack, Maintains $105 Price Target

Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) widens FY2025 sales outlook from $1.45 billion-$1.48 billion to $1.40 billion-$1.50 billion vs $1.46 billion estimate.

Shake Shack Widens FY2025 Sales Guidance from $1.45B-$1.48B to $1.40B-$1.50B vs $1.46B Est

Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) sees Q2 sales of $346.000 million-$353.000 million vs $356.38 million analyst estimate.

Shake Shack Sees Q2 Sales $346.000M-$353.000M vs $356.38M Est

Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $0.16 by 12.5 percent. This is a 7.69 percent increase over earnings of $0.13 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $320.90 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $328.08 million by 2.19 percent. This is a 10.46 percent increase over sales of $290.50 million the same period last year.

Earnings Misses

Shake Shack Q1 Adj. EPS $0.14 Misses $0.16 Estimate, Sales $320.90M Miss $328.08M Estimate

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Earnings Scheduled For May 1, 2025

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger maintains Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $140 to $100.

UBS Maintains Neutral on Shake Shack, Lowers Price Target to $100

Goldman Sachs analyst Christine Cho on Wednesday provided a preview of the first quarter for U.S. restaurants.
What Happened: U.S. restaurant companies faced a tough start to 2025, with weaker consumer sentiment, weather impacts and tariff uncertainties affecting performance, except for a few like Brinker International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EAT#NYSE">EAT</a>).
Although first-quarter softness was expected, risks remain on the downside due to macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, as reflected in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44996394/chipotle-battles-slumping-sales-but-honey-chicken-boosts-hope-say-analysts">same-store sales growth miss and lowered guidance</a>.
These factors are likely to dominate investor attention during the earnings season, noted the analyst.
Despite no major changes in consumer intent for restaurant spending, recent adjustments to estimates reflect lower macroeconomic forecasts from GS economists, including slower GDP growth and a higher recession probability.
Restaurant sales trends are closely tied to consumer spending, and weaker macro conditions suggest lower comparable store-sales growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
Inflation&#8217;s impact on margins is limited, and there&#8217;s a higher risk to global restaurant development plans, particularly in international markets, which could reduce long-term unit growth, the analyst said.
Economists predict a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 0.5% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024, with a 45% recession risk, up from 20% earlier in the year due to tightening financial conditions, foreign boycotts, and policy uncertainty.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/04/44977669/pepsico-ceo-warns-of-tariffs-led-increase-in-supply-chain-costs-cuts-annual-profit-outlook">PepsiCo CEO Warns Of Tariffs Led &#8216;Increase In Supply Chain Costs,&#8217; Cuts Annual Profit Outlook</a>
The deceleration in consumer spending and macro headwinds are putting pressure on restaurant top-line growth, with varying impacts across different restaurant types.
Fast food restaurants show the lowest sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, with higher resiliency compared to fast casual and full-service restaurants, which are more correlated with GDP and consumer discretionary spending.
Recent surveys show no significant shifts in consumer purchase intent for restaurants, with full-service restaurants seeing improvement compared to grocery stores, while limited-service restaurants have contracted in recent months.
What&#8217;s Next: Companies like Wendy&#8217;s Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEN#NASDAQ">WEN</a>), Bloomin&#8217; Brands Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLMN#NASDAQ">BLMN</a>), Domino&#8217;s Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DPZ#NASDAQ">DPZ</a>), Wingstop Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WING#NASDAQ">WING</a>), Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YUM#NYSE">YUM</a>), and Jack In The Box Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JACK#NASDAQ">JACK</a>) have higher lease-adjusted net leverage, with Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>) and Domino&#8217;s facing notable near-term debt maturities.
Slower same-store sales growth and higher build costs are expected to hurt franchisee profitability and reduce demand for new stores.
Many fast food chains anticipate slower unit expansion in 2025, with Jack in The Box planning major cutbacks and closures, while fast casual/casual dining brands remain mostly on track.
Potential U.S. tariffs may raise domestic build costs, while international growth faces challenges from weaker global demand and rising anti-U.S. brand sentiment.
U.S. tariff actions and foreign policy stances have damaged international perceptions of the U.S., raising concerns about reduced demand for American brands.
While it&#8217;s too soon to measure definitive consumer pullback, monitoring sentiment is increasingly important for U.S. brands abroad.
Morning Consult data shows a YTD decline in U.S. favorability across most tracked countries, particularly Canada, Western Europe and Mexico.
Despite rising anti-U.S. sentiment globally, current data indicates no strong link between U.S. tariffs and Chinese consumer attitudes toward U.S. brands.
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Photo: Rawpixel.com via Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Restaurants

BLMN

CAKE

JACK

SBUX

TXRH

WING

US Restaurants Face Growth Hurdles As Macro Headwinds Mount, Says Analyst

Barclays analyst Jeffrey Bernstein maintains Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $155 to $100.

Barclays Maintains Overweight on Shake Shack, Lowers Price Target to $100

Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett maintains Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $154 to $131.

Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Shake Shack, Lowers Price Target to $131

TD Cowen analyst Andrew M. Charles expects potential tariffs to impact <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/restaurants">new restaurant construction</a> costs more than ongoing operating expenses.
Since only 5% to 20% of cost of goods sold (COGS) typically comes from international sources, the overall COGS impact remains minimal. 
However, restaurants face steep tariffs on Chinese equipment (145%) and other materials like steel (25%) and potentially lumber, which together make up 40% to 50% of total new store construction costs.
Initial estimates indicate a 10% to 15% rise in build-out expenses. However, the projected effect on cash-on-cash returns appears manageable and unlikely to disrupt short- or medium-term development plans. 
Despite this, the analyst says returns would remain attractive. For example, a 40% cash-on-cash return could drop to 35% under current tariff pressures, still maintaining viability for expansion.
Sweetgreen Inc.'s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>) Infinite Kitchen concept faces elevated exposure to U.S.-China tariffs, as some of its proprietary components are sourced from China. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44897010/chipotle-to-open-first-mexico-restaurant-by-2026">Chipotle To Open First Mexico Restaurant By 2026</a>
While the company disclosed potential build cost increases in its 10-K following the February 4 tariff hike, current 145% tariffs on Chinese imports may drive capital expenditures significantly above the initial $450,000–$550,000 guidance.
The analyst estimates that Infinite Kitchen can boost cash-on-cash (CoC) returns by about 600 basis points in the base case scenario, assuming a $450,000 build cost and a 10% restaurant margin lift. 
Even with build costs climbing as high as $750,000, CoC returns could remain accretive, provided less than half of the component cost is exposed to Chinese tariffs.
A projected 12.5% rise in construction costs would delay free cash flow (FCF) break-even timelines by about a year for several restaurant chains not yet generating positive FCF. 
Companies like Sweetgreen, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FWRG#NASDAQ">FWRG</a>), and Kura Sushi would see setbacks if they maintain current development plans.
Analysts forecast FWRG reaching FCF profitability in 2029 instead of 2028, while KRUS could be delayed until 2033, up from 2032. 
Although Sweetgreen's target of 2030 remains unchanged, the potential profitability level would be significantly lower due to cost pressures.
Other restaurant operators such as Dutch Bros Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BROS#NYSE">BROS</a>), Cava Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAVA#NYSE">CAVA</a>), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>), Shake Shack Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>), and Wingstop Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WING#NASDAQ">WING</a>) are not expected to face meaningful impacts to their free cash flow forecasts from the projected increase in build costs, noted the analyst.
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</ul>
Photo: Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

BROS

CAVA

FWRG

KRUS

Tariff Pressures Could Reshape Restaurant Buildout Economics, Says Analyst

BofA Securities analyst Sara Senatore provides an analysis for restaurant sector performance in the first <a href="https://trello.com/c/f3PFGoRF/331021-restaurants-q1-previewbofa">quarter</a>.
Restaurant demand showed mixed results due to weather and a calendar shift, said the analyst. 
Black Box industry data revealed a deceleration in same-store sales growth (SSSG) across all segments from January to February, but March saw improvement, excluding Fine Dining. 
Restaurant spending growth improved in March, with chain spending recovering from -7.5% in February to -3.5%.
Independent restaurants saw a rise in spending, from -2.7% in February to +1.3%. The rebound was attributed to better weather and the impact of the calendar shift in February. 
In the first quarter, prices for soybeans, wheat and soybean oil continued to deflate, though at a slower rate than in the fourth quarter of FY24. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44897010/chipotle-to-open-first-mexico-restaurant-by-2026">Chipotle To Open First Mexico Restaurant By 2026</a>
Coffee prices surged, increasing by 96.8% year-over-year, up from 56.8% in the fourth quarter. Beef inflation rose to 5.5%, compared to 1.3% in the previous quarter.
Cheese prices decreased by 1.8%, while dairy inflation slowed to 1.3%. Futures markets predict deflation in several commodities in the second quarter of 2025, but coffee, natural gas and beef are expected to see inflation, noted the analyst.
Restaurants index in the S&amp;P 500 is trading at 1.2x forward EPS, below its 5-year, 10-year and 15-year averages of 1.4x.
Industry data indicates a demand recovery in March after weak months in January and February. While consensus expectations for restaurants remain high, first-quarter results may fall short of estimates. 
Investors are focused on April trends and the potential impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment, traffic and COGS inflation.
So, keeping the above points in mind, the analyst has lowered the price targets for Bloomin&#8217; Brands Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLMN#NASDAQ">BLMN</a>), Dutch Bros Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BROS#NYSE">BROS</a>), Cheesecake Factory Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAKE#NASDAQ">CAKE</a>), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CBRL#NASDAQ">CBRL</a>), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>), Krispy Kreme Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DNUT#NASDAQ">DNUT</a>), Domino&#8217;s Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DPZ#NASDAQ">DPZ</a>), Brinker International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EAT#NYSE">EAT</a>), Jack In The Box Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JACK#NASDAQ">JACK</a>), McDonald&#8217;s Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCD#NYSE">MCD</a>), Papa John&#8217;s International Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PZZA#NASDAQ">PZZA</a>), Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>), Sweetgreen Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>), Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>), Sysco Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SYY#NYSE">SYY</a>), Texas Roadhouse Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXRH#NASDAQ">TXRH</a>), Wendy&#8217;s Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEN#NASDAQ">WEN</a>), Wingstop Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WING#NASDAQ">WING</a>), and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YUM#NYSE">YUM</a>).
Read Next: • <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44895043/target-rolls-out-standalone-flower-brand-good-little-garden">Target Rolls Out Standalone Flower Brand &#8216;Good Little Garden&#8217;</a>
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/Rawpixel">Rawpixel.com</a> via Shutterstock

CBRL

DNUT

PZZA

Restaurant Sector Q1 Volatilty From Weather, Inflation — Analyst Lowers Price Targets

Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull maintains Shake Shack (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) with a Hold and lowers the price target from $120 to $97.

Stifel Maintains Hold on Shake Shack, Lowers Price Target to $97

Press Releases

Shake Shack Names Justin Mennen as Chief Information and Technology Officer

Shake Shack Provides Fourth Quarter 2024 Business Update and Long-Term Targets

Shake Shack Expands Leadership Team with Key Executive Appointments

Shake Shack to Announce Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results on February 20, 2025

Serve Robotics Expands to Miami Metro, Offering Autonomous Delivery for Shake Shack and Mister O1

Shake Shack Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results

Shake Shack to Participate in Upcoming March Investor Conferences

Shake Shack to Announce First Quarter 2025 Financial Results on May 1, 2025

Jeffrey Lawrence Appointed Chairman of Joe & the Juice

Shake Shack Announces First Quarter 2025 Financial Results

FIGS

SERV

UBER

XPOF

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Class A Shares

Arcos Dorados Holdings

Aramark

Biglari Holdings Inc. Class B Common Stock

Biglari Holdings

Biglari Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock

BJ's Restaurants

Dutch Bros

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated - Common Stock

Cheesecake Factory

Cava Group

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. - Common Stock

Cracker Barrel Old

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Common Stock

Chipotle Mexican Grill

DoorDash

Domino's Pizza

Darden Restaurants

Brinker International

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. - Common Stock

First Watch Restaurant Gr

SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD. - American Depositary Shares

Super Hi International

McDonald's

Papa John's International, Inc. - Common Stock

Papa John's International

Starbucks

Sweetgreen

Texas Roadhouse

Wendy's

Wingstop

Yum Brands

Yum China Holdings

JP Morgan

Raymond James

Baird

TD Securities

過去１週間で最も成績を上げた７つの中型銘柄株、あなたのポートフォリオには入っていますか？
<ol>
<li>Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LUMN#NYSE">LUMN</a>)の株価が65.95％上昇。同社は次世代光ファイバーケーブルの供給契約を<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40104952" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Corning社と締結し、データセンターでのAI需要を補完した</a>。</li>
<li>Shake Shack, Inc.（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>）の株価が19.52％急騰し、同社は<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40104675" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">予想を上回る第2四半期の売上結果を発表</a>した。 何人かのアナリストは、<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40131307" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">同社の決算に対する予想を上方修正</a>した。</li>
<li>Parsons Corp（NYSE:PSN）の株は15.42％上昇。同社は、第2四半期の決算が予想を上回り、さらに2024会計年度の収益見通しを引き上げた。</li>
<li>Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CWAN#NYSE">CWAN</a>)の株価は15.23％上昇し、同社は予想を上回る第2四半期の売上結果と、予想を上回る<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40081350" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">第3四半期決算と2024会計年度の収益見通しを発表</a>した。</li>
<li>Repligen Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGEN#NASDAQ">RGEN</a>)の株が15.14％上昇。同社は<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/40044492/repligen-lowers-guidance-on-china-weakness-analyst-expects" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">第2四半期の決算</a>を発表し、それを受けて何人かのアナリストは株価予想を修正した。</li>
<li>Frontdoor Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FTDR#NASDAQ">FTDR</a>)の株価は15.09％上昇し、第2四半期の決算が予想を上回った。</li>
<li>NeoGenomics, Inc. （NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEO#NASDAQ">NEO</a>)の株価が14.47％上昇。同社は<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/40021917" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">第2四半期の決算が予想を上回り、2024会計年度の収益見通しを上方修正</a>した。</li>
</ol>
関連リンク：
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40150484/microstrategy-intel-and-moderna-are-among-top-12-large-cap-losers-last-week-july-28-august-3-are-the" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">先週の大型株急落トップ12：MicroStrategy、Intel、Moderna はポートフォリオに入れているか？</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40150236/doordash-and-exact-sciences-are-among-top-10-large-cap-gainers-last-week-july-28-august-3-are-the-other" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">先週の大型株上昇トップ10： DoorDash、Exact Sciences はあなたのポートフォリオに？</a></li>
</ul>
写真提供:Shutterstock

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