U.S. futures rose on Thursday after a mixed close on Wednesday. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading higher.



During his testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled slower growth and hotter inflation after the central bank left interest rates unchanged.



President Donald Trump, who has been pushing the Fed to cut rates, said that he could announce Powell&#8217;s successor by September, whose term ends later in May 2026, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-next-federal-reserve-chair-powell-d3edcb9c?mod=hp_lead_pos1">reported</a> the Wall Street Journal. 



The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28% and the two-year bond was at 3.76%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing a 75.2% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its July meeting.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.20%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.26%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>0.40%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>0.12%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.28% at $608.84, while the QQQ advanced 0.41% to $543.36, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Information technology and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing higher on Wednesday, while most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a negative note, with real estate, consumer staples, and utilities recording the biggest losses.



At a NATO meeting in the Netherlands, President Trump stated that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in effect, and the United States will persist in pressuring Tehran. He clarified that while sanctions are still in place, Iran is presently permitted to sell oil to China.



Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) spearheaded chipmaker gains, increasing 3.6% and reaching its highest level since early December 2024. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) shares also surged 4.3% on Wednesday.



On the economic front, U.S. sales of new single-family homes decreased by 13.7% from the previous month, reaching an annualized rate of 623,000 units in May. U.S. building permits declined by 2% to an annualized rate of 1.394 million in May.



The Dow Jones index ended 507 points or 0.25% lower at 42,982.43, whereas the S&amp;P 500 index fell 0.0003% to 6,092.16. Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.31% to 19,973.55, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, tumbled 1.16% to end at 2,136.18.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.31%</td><td>19,973.55</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.00033%</td><td>6,092.16</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.25%</td><td>42,982.43</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-1.16%</td><td>2,136.18</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist at Schwab, said that the Middle East remains unstable, but maybe not as unstable as it looked a few days ago, so the market shook off the fear and rose.



&#8220;There was a spike in oil and concerns over the weekend and what futures signaled Sunday night, but things aren&#8217;t as bad as expected, and we&#8217;re not seeing escalation, so markets rallied.&#8221;



Talking about international equities, Brock Weimer, an investment strategist at Edward Jones, said that &#8220;We believe the more compelling opportunity lies in U.S. equities over the next one to three years. As part of our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance, we recommend a slight underweight to international developed equities in favor of U.S. stocks.&#8221;



Meanwhile, Louis Navellier commented on Powell&#8217;s Congress testimony and said, &#8220;So, despite the fact that three other Fed members are now signaling a July key interest rate cut, Chairman Powell remains a hawk and continues to ignore favorable inflation data as well as lower Treasury yields.&#8221;



&#8220;The Fed has been anticipating an inflation &#8216;bogeyman&#8217; that has not materialized. Central banks around the world continue to cut key interest rates. Deflation is becoming increasingly common around the world, especially in China,&#8221; Navellier said.



Talking about the U.S. dollar, he said he expects the U.S. dollar to &#8220;firm up&#8221; due to;



(1) higher interest rates compared to the rest of the world, (2) stronger economic growth, and (3) military might.



&#8220;A strong U.S. dollar is also naturally deflationary, since commodities are priced in U.S. dollars,&#8221; he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>May&#8217;s advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories, along with the initial jobless claims data for the week ended June 21, will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>May&#8217;s headline and core durable-goods orders and second revision for the first quarter GDP will also be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at 9:00 a.m., and pending home sales for May will be out by 10:00 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>) was up 0.27% in premarket on Thursday as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 34 cents per share on revenue of $36.84 billion, before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Acuity Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) advanced 1.35% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $4.43 per share on revenue of $1.15 billion, before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) was 0.74% higher as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 13 cents per share on revenue of $10.72 billion after the closing bell.</li>



<li>McCormick &amp; Company Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MKC#NYSE">MKC</a>) rose 0.84% as analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of 65 cents per share on revenue of $1.66 billion, before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Worthington Steel Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WS#NYSE">WS</a>) jumped 16.15% after reporting stronger-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter. The company reported quarterly earnings of $1.05 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 82 cents per share.</li>



<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) was up 2.18% after reporting better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter after the market closed on Wednesday. The company said it expects fourth-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million, versus estimates of $9.88 billion.</li>



<li>Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BMBL#NASDAQ">BMBL</a>) gained 0.61% after announcing 30% of job cuts and restructuring plans.</li>



<li>Bit Digital Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BTBT#NASDAQ">BTBT</a>) tumbled 3.83% commenced an underwritten public offering of its ordinary shares, with all shares being offered by the company.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.15% to hover around $65.02 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.29% to hover around $3,341.87 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.54% at the 97.1550 level.



Asian markets ended lower on Thursday, except Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex indices. While Australia's ASX 200, China&#8217;s CSI 300, South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46109917/billionaire-david-tepper-dumps-nvidia-slashes-magnificent-7-holdings-but-bets-big-on-these-2-ai-and-blockchain-plays">Billionaire David Tepper Dumps Nvidia, Slashes &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; Holdings — But Bets Big On These 2 AI And Blockchain Plays</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: godongphoto / Shutterstock.com

Equities

BMBL

BTBT

NVDA

US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Despite Powell's Tariff-Induced Inflation Warning: Walgreens, Nike In Focus Ahead Of Earnings

President Donald Trump&#8216;s fiscal 2026 defense budget request signals a strategic pivot toward advanced missile systems and unmanned warfare capabilities while scaling back traditional fighter jet procurement, potentially reshaping revenue streams for major defense contractors.



What Happened: The $892.6 billion defense and national security budget, flat compared to fiscal 2025, cuts F-35 Lightning II orders to 47 units from the 68 requested in former President Joe Biden&#8216;s final budget proposal, Reuters reported, citing budget materials released on Wednesday by the White House.



Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), the F-35&#8217;s sole manufacturer, faces reduced near-term revenue from the program despite House appropriators proposing to increase the buy to 69 aircraft.



The budget emphasizes procurement of long-range precision munitions, including the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range and Long Range Anti-Ship Missile, both manufactured by Lockheed Martin. These weapons systems align with Pentagon priorities for Indo-Pacific operations designed to counter Chinese military expansion.



Naval shipbuilding also faces constraints, with only three warships included in the base budget request. General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GD#NYSE">GD</a>) and Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HII#NYSE">HII</a>), primary builders of Virginia-class submarines and surface vessels, will see reduced procurement volumes as the Navy eliminates 7,286 civilian positions to control costs.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46109638/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-praises-palantirs-fde-model-as-fantastic-insiders-say-its-not-consulting-it-builds-the-product-customers-need">Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Praises Palantir&#8217;s FDE Model As &#8216;Fantastic&#8217;—Insiders Say It&#8217;s Not Consulting, It Builds &#8216;The Product Customers Need&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: The budget allocates increased funding for small drone systems, reflecting lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict, where unmanned aerial vehicles proved cost-effective force multipliers. This shift <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/25/06/46090791/us-tests-radar-that-could-help-trumps-golden-dome-detect-missiles-over-1200-miles-report">benefits emerging defense technology</a> companies competing for Pentagon contracts alongside traditional prime contractors.



Trump&#8217;s Golden Dome missile defense initiative, estimated to cost over $175 billion, receives initial funding through a separate $150 billion defense package. The program has attracted interest from non-traditional defense players, including SpaceX, Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>), and artificial intelligence <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/space/25/06/46090791/us-tests-radar-that-could-help-trumps-golden-dome-detect-missiles-over-1200-miles-report">companies seeking to disrupt</a> the established contractor base.



The budget includes a 3.8% military pay raise while retiring aging platforms to reduce operational costs, according to the report. 



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46106134/bernie-sanders-shares-first-thing-he-would-do-as-president-and-it-could-be-a-jab-at-elon-musk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bernie Sanders Shares First Thing He Would Do As President — And It Could Be A Jab At Elon Musk</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



Photo courtesy: Joey Sussman / Shutterstock.com

Politics

PLTR

Trump's Defense Budget Shifts Focus To Missiles, Drones: F-35 Orders Cut By 31%

Nippon Steel Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NPSCY#OTC">NPSCY</a>) completed its acquisition of United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>), with President Donald Trump securing unprecedented &#8220;golden share&#8221; powers that grant the U.S. government veto authority over key corporate decisions.



What Happened: The $14 billion transaction transforms U.S. Steel into a wholly owned subsidiary of Nippon Steel North America, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings. U.S. Steel shares ceased trading on the New York Stock Exchange last week, with delisting effective June 30.



Trump&#8217;s approval came through a National Security Agreement signed June 13 between the companies and the U.S. Treasury and Commerce departments. 



The golden share mechanism gives the current president veto power over U.S. Steel&#8217;s name changes, headquarters relocation from Pittsburgh, production shifts overseas, facility closures, and material acquisitions of competing U.S. businesses.



The structure ensures future presidents will inherit these oversight powers, creating permanent government influence over the iconic steelmaker&#8217;s strategic decisions. According <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/18/us-steel-ceases-trading-on-the-nyse-as-japans-nippon-finalizes-takeover.html">to</a> CNBC, under the NSA terms, U.S. Steel&#8217;s board majority and CEO must remain U.S. citizens, while the company stays incorporated domestically.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46107638/mark-zuckerbergs-meta-beats-lawsuit-over-ai-training-on-books-judge-finds-no-meaningful-evidence-on-market-dilution">Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s Meta Beats Lawsuit Over AI Training On Books, Judge Finds &#8216;No Meaningful Evidence On Market Dilution&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: Nippon Steel committed $11 billion in U.S. investments by 2028, including $1 billion for a new greenfield facility. The companies pledged to protect over 100,000 jobs while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/45961309/us-steel-stock-soars-as-nippon-steel-partnership-gets-green-light-from-white-house">maintaining domestic production capacity</a>.



The deal reverses Biden administration opposition, which blocked the acquisition in January, citing national security concerns. Trump initially opposed the takeover during his 2024 campaign but ordered a fresh review after taking office in January.



U.S. Steel stock <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/45961309/us-steel-stock-soars-as-nippon-steel-partnership-gets-green-light-from-white-house">surged 5.10% to $54.85 on approval news</a>, with trading volume exceeding 14 million shares compared to the 100-day average of 8.55 million shares. The company&#8217;s shares reached $54.97 before the trading suspension.



The transaction required <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/25/06/45960965/us-steel-stock-rallies-after-trump-approves-nippon-steel-deal">multiple regulatory clearances</a>, including the Department of Justice antitrust review. Trump simultaneously doubled steel import tariffs to 50% to protect domestic production while approving the foreign acquisition.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46108786/fannie-and-freddie-directed-to-consider-crypto-mortgages-by-us-housing-regulator-but-michael-saylor-thinks-its-only-bitcoin-that-has-entered-the-american-dream">Fannie And Freddie Directed To Consider Crypto Mortgages By US Housing Regulator, But Michael Saylor Thinks It&#8217;s Only Bitcoin That Has &#8216;Entered The American Dream&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



Photo courtesy: T. Schneider / Shutterstock.com

NPSCY

Trump Gets 'Golden Share' In $14 Billion US Steel Deal, But Control Shifts To Federal Agencies Under Future Presidents

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some improvement in the overall market sentiment, while the index remained in the &#8220;Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday.



U.S. stocks settled mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index falling more than 100 points during the session.



At a NATO meeting in the Netherlands, President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in place and that the United States will continue exerting pressure on Tehran. He clarified that while sanctions remain, Iran is currently allowed to sell oil to China.



Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) led chipmaker gains, rising 3.6% and reaching its highest level since early December 2024. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) shares jumped 4.3% on Wednesday.



On the economic front, sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. dipped by 13.7% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 623,000 units in May. U.S. building permits declined by 2% to an annualized rate of 1.394 million in May.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a negative note, with real estate, consumer staples and utilities stocks recording the biggest losses on Wednesday. However, information technology and communication services stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session higher.



The Dow Jones closed lower by around 107 points to 42,982.43 on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 fell 0.02 points to 6,092.16, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31% at 19,973.55 during Wednesday's session.



Investors are awaiting earnings results from Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WBA#NASDAQ">WBA</a>), Acuity Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AYI#NYSE">AYI</a>) and NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) today.



What is CNN Business Fear &amp; Greed Index?



At a current reading of 58.8, the index remained in the &#8220;Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday, versus a prior reading of 57.1.



The Fear &amp; Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li> <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/25/06/46093486/top-2-utilities-stocks-that-may-fall-off-a-cliff-in-q2">Top 2 Utilities Stocks That May Fall Off A Cliff In Q2</a> </li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Pre-Market Outlook

Nasdaq Settles Higher As Nvidia, AMD Rally: Investor Sentiment Improves, Fear Index Remains In 'Greed' Zone

Bitcoin advanced while other blue-chip cryptocurrencies moved sideways on Wednesday&nbsp;as corporations continued to accumulate the apex digital asset.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 10:00 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>+1.20%</td><td>$107,692.70</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-0.11%</td><td>$2,457.58</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-0.78%</td><td>$0.1641</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: The leading cryptocurrency gained momentum, reclaiming $108,000 after more than a week&#8217;s absence. The trading volume popped 3.43% to $50 billion over the last 24 hours.



Anthony Pompliano&#8217;s Bitcoin treasury company ProCap BTC, LLC, bought another 1,208 BTC at an average price of $105,977, taking its total holdings to 4,932 BTC, worth $531.4 million. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">We have purchased another 1,208 bitcoin. The average price was ~ $105,977 per bitcoin. We now hold a total of 4,932 bitcoin. We believe bitcoin is the new hurdle rate. If you can't beat it, you have to buy it. Full press release here: <a href="https://t.co/wHHhrYDpJD">https://t.co/wHHhrYDpJD</a> <a href="https://t.co/LJpwuoyvCe">pic.twitter.com/LJpwuoyvCe</a>&mdash; Anthony Pompliano &#x1f32a; (@APompliano) <a href="https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1937994001199575233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Ethereum consolidated in the $2,400 range before gaining traction overnight to exceed $2,450. Trading volume remained tepid for the second-largest cryptocurrency.



More than $200 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with nearly $102 million in bearish shorts wiped out.



Meanwhile, Bitcoin&#8217;s open interest surged nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. A rise in open interest, combined with a price rise, is typically interpreted as a bullish signal.



The market's "Greed" sentiment strengthened from 66 to 74, according to the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index.



Top Gainers (24 Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 10:00 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Pi (PI)</td><td>+12.86%</td><td>$0.6228</td></tr><tr><td>Kaspa (KAS) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+4.64%</td><td>$0.0781</td></tr><tr><td>Bitget Token (BGB)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+2.92%</td><td>$4.45 </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.30 trillion, following a modest increase of 0.67% in the last 24 hours.



Stocks were a mixed bag on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 106.59 points, or 0.25%, to end at 42,982.43. The S&amp;P 500 was barely changed, ending the session at 6,092.16. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.31% to end at 19,973.55.



Artificial intelligence darling NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) surged 4.33% to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46098276/nvidia-stock-soars-near-record-high-whats-driving-the-rally#:~:text=According%20to%20data%20from%20Benzinga,52%2Dweek%20low%20of%20%2486.62.">close at a record high</a> on Wednesday, becoming the world's most valuable company.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: On-chain analytics firm Santiment highlighted a divergence in trader behavior for Bitcoin and Ethereum.



"With BTC pushing crypto&#8217;s recovery, traders are shorting (expecting a slight pullback). Meanwhile, ETH has been trailing, and traders are longing in hopes it will catch up," Santiment stated.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&#x1f4ca; Traders are pushing Bitcoin&#39;s &amp; Ethereum&#39;s funding rates in 2 directions. With <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> pushing crypto&#39;s recovery, traders are shorting (expecting a slight pullback). Meanwhile, <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$ETH</a> has been trailing, and traders are longing in hopes it will catch up. &#x1f517; <a href="https://t.co/TDl4zmxxnD">https://t.co/TDl4zmxxnD</a> <a href="https://t.co/miBpxw5oNi">pic.twitter.com/miBpxw5oNi</a>&mdash; Santiment (@santimentfeed) <a href="https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1937923598695514430?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Widely followed cryptocurrency analyst Cas Abbé likened Bitcoin&#8217;s current price action at $108,000 to its $20,000 level in 2020.



"In 2020-21 cycle, BTC pumped 3x in just 3 months," Abbé said. "I&#8217;m not saying that BTC will pull a 3x, but there will be a similar parabolic move.



The analyst projected BTC to soar 50%-80% in the next 3-4 months before a blow-off top.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Buying <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> now is like buying BTC at $20K in 2020. I&#39;m not saying that BTC will pull a 3x, but there will be a similar parabolic move. In 2020-21 cycle, BTC pumped 3x in just 3 months. This time, I&#39;m expecting 50%-80% move within 3-4 months before a blow-off top. Make no… <a href="https://t.co/xYd5tcFgXn">pic.twitter.com/xYd5tcFgXn</a>&mdash; Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) <a href="https://twitter.com/cas_abbe/status/1937791511422271522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Photo Courtesy: PeopleImages.com &#8211; Yuri A on Shutterstock.com



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46094408/how-bitcoin-is-maturing-to-a-global-liquidity-asset-report">How Bitcoin Is Maturing To A Global Liquidity Asset: Report</a></li>
</ul>

Cryptocurrency

News

Markets

Movers

Trading Ideas

$BTC

$DOGE

$ETH

Bitcoin Tops This Key Level As Institutions Pile On, Ethereum, Dogecoin Rangebound: Analyst Says Buying BTC Now Is Like Buying It For $20,000 In 2020

On Wednesday, Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) scored a legal victory as a federal judge ruled that the company&#8217;s use of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/23/07/33158772/sarah-silverman-and-other-authors-allege-openai-meta-wield-ai-tech-to-steal-info">copyrighted books</a> to train its AI models is protected under the fair use doctrine.



What Happened: A lawsuit filed by 13 authors, including Sarah Silverman, claimed Meta illegally used their copyrighted works to train AI models.



However, U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria sided with Meta, granting summary judgment and stating that the company's actions fell under fair use, <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/25/federal-judge-sides-with-meta-in-lawsuit-over-training-ai-models-on-copyrighted-books/">reported</a> TechCrunch.



See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/45988600/mark-zuckerbergs-meta-dangled-100-million-signing-bonuses-to-openai-team-members-says-sam-altman-happy-none-of-our-best-people-took-them" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Mark Zuckerberg&#8217;s Meta Dangled ‘$100 Million Signing Bonuses&#8217; To OpenAI Team Members, Says Sam Altman: Happy ‘None&#8217; Of Our Best People Took Them</a>



&#8220;The plaintiffs presented no meaningful evidence on market dilution at all,&#8221; Judge Chhabria said. He went on to say that while the case was narrowly focused, AI model training can be deemed transformative, meaning Meta's models didn't simply replicate the authors' works.



Judge Chhabria added that this decision doesn't make all AI model training legal, but pointed out that the plaintiffs failed to make sufficient arguments about market harm.



Subscribe to the&nbsp;<a href="https://bztechtrends.beehiiv.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Tech Trends newsletter</a>&nbsp;to get all the latest tech developments delivered to your inbox.



Why It&#8217;s Important: The decision follows a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46088008/elon-musk-agrees-google-had-all-the-tools-but-still-lost-the-ai-race-to-openai-echoes-social-media-post-having-the-pieces-isnt-the-same-as-playing-the-game">similar ruling in favor</a> of Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) backed Anthropic, another AI company.&nbsp;



However, multiple other lawsuits are ongoing against tech firms accused of using different types of copyrighted content for AI training.



This includes The New York Times's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/02/37121678/openai-lawsuit-judge-calls-sarah-silverman-other-authors-copyright-infringement-claim-insufficient">case against</a> OpenAI and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) over the use of its news articles, while Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIS#NYSE">DIS</a>) and Comcast Corp's (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMCSA#NASDAQ">CMCSA</a>) Universal Studios have taken legal action against Midjourney for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/06/45895643/disney-universal-studios-sue-ai-image-generator-midjourney-for-copyright-infringement">allegedly training AI models</a> on movies and television content.



Price Action: Meta shares declined by 0.49% in Wednesday's regular trading and edged up by 0.017% in after-hours trading, as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings show a steady upward trajectory for META over short, medium and long-term periods. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound'">Additional performance insights can be found here</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound'"><img decoding="async" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25225004/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-8.18.07%E2%80%AFAM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-962394"/></a></figure>



Photo Courtesy: Skorzewiak on Shutterstock.com



Check out more of Benzinga&#8217;s Consumer Tech coverage by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/consumer-tech" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">following this link</a>.



Read Next:&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45396297/cathie-wood-dumps-palantir-as-stock-touches-peak-prices-bails-on-soaring-flying-taxi-maker-archer-aviation" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cathie Wood Dumps Palantir As Stock Touches Peak Prices, Bails On Soaring Flying-Taxi Maker Archer Aviation</a></li>
</ul>



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Legal

Tech

Media

AMZN

CMCSA

MSFT

Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Beats Lawsuit Over AI Training On Books, Judge Finds 'No Meaningful Evidence On Market Dilution'

Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made notable trades on Wednesday, focusing on Shopify Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHOP#NYSE">SHOP</a>) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>). 



The Shopify Trade: Ark Invest made significant purchases of Shopify shares across multiple ETFs, including ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKF#BATS">ARKF</a>), ARK Innovation ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#BATS">ARKK</a>), and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKW#BATS">ARKW</a>). The firm acquired a total of 36,058 shares of Shopify. This move aligns with Ark&#8217;s continued interest in high-growth technology and e-commerce sectors, as seen in their recent trades. On Wednesday, Shopify shares ended the day at $113.89, making the Ark transactions worth $4.11 million.



It should be noted that a day earlier, Ark <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/46086884/cathie-wood-drops-6-5-million-on-shop-and-abnb-betting-you-wont-stop-shopping-or-traveling">purchased $3.9 million</a> worth of Shopify shares through multiple ETFs as well. Shopify's first-quarter earnings beat analyst expectations, posting 26.8% year-over-year revenue growth despite shrinking gross margins.



The Robinhood Trade: In a contrasting move, Ark Invest sold 55,949 shares of Robinhood through ARKK. This decision comes as Robinhood&#8217;s stock trends upward, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46102635/whats-going-on-with-robinhood-stock-today-4">reaching all-time highs</a>. The stock reached a 52-week high of $85.55 on Wednesday. For the day, Robinhood shares closed at $82.75, making the Ark transaction at $4.63 million. 



The company is expected to release its June trading metrics soon, following its annual shareholder meeting. Despite geopolitical tensions, Robinhood&#8217;s platform has shown resilience, with no major shifts in retail trading behavior, as highlighted by CEO Vlad Tenev. The executive noted that recent geopolitical tensions haven&#8217;t <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46097909/robinhood-ceo-highlights-retail-investor-interest-in-nvidia-tesla-despite-middle-east-tensions-barely-a-blip">shaken the confidence of retail traders</a> and money has continued to flow into artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies and financial technology segments.



Other Key Trades:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Toast Inc. (TOST): Ark Invest purchased 7,970 shares for ARKF and 13,983 shares for ARKW.</li>



<li>Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM): Acquired 89,345 shares for ARKK.</li>



<li>Veracyte Inc. (VCYT): Bought 50,736 shares for ARKK.</li>



<li>Twist Bioscience Corp. (TWST): Added 11,770 shares for ARKK.</li>



<li>CRISPR Therapeutics AG (CRSP): Purchased 5,955 shares for ARKK.</li>
</ul>



Benzinga's Edge Stock Rankings indicate Robinhood has Momentum in the 98th percentile. How does rival Coinbase compare? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">Find out here.</a>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="445" height="278" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25211245/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-10.12.28.png" alt="" class="wp-image-962331" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25211245/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-10.12.28.png 445w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25211245/Screenshot-2025-06-26-at-10.12.28-300x187.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 445px) 100vw, 445px" /></a></figure>



Photo Courtesy: Ira Lichi On Shutterstock.com



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<li><a href="https://benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46067898/trumps-crypto-ventures-have-been-lucrative-but-adam-schiff-says-he-is-bringing-in-a-law-to-" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s Crypto Ventures Have Been &#8216;Lucrative,&#8217; But Adam Schiff Says He Is Bringing In A Law To End &#8216;Corruption In Plain Sight&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/shivdeep-dhaliwal" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shivdeep Dhaliwal</a>

ETFs

ARKF

ARKK

ARKW

HOOD

SHOP

Cathie Wood Doubles Down On Shopify, Buys The Dip — Dumps $4.6 Million Worth Of Robinhood Stock At Peak

Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) reported financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 after the market close on Wednesday. Here&#8217;s what you need to know <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/g46103361/micron-technology-inc-reports-results-for-the-third-quarter-of-fiscal-2025">from the report</a>.



Q3 Earnings: Micron reported third-quarter revenue of $9.3 billion, beating the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MU/earnings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus estimate</a>&nbsp;of $8.87 billion. The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.60 per share, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Total revenue was up roughly 16% on a year-over-year basis. Operating cash flow came in at $4.61 billion versus $3.94 billion in the prior quarter and $2.48 billion in the comparable quarter last year. The company generated $1.95 billion in adjusted free cash in the third quarter.



&#8220;Micron delivered record revenue in fiscal third quarter, driven by all-time-high DRAM revenue, including nearly 50% sequential growth in HBM revenue. Data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year and reached a quarterly record, and consumer-oriented end markets had strong sequential growth,&#8221; said Sanjay Mehrotra, president and CEO of Micron.



Micron ended the period with $12.22 billion in cash,&nbsp;marketable investments and restricted cash. Micron&#8217;s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share, payable on July 22 to shareholders of record as of July 7.



Outlook: Micron expects fourth-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, plus or minus $300 million, versus estimates of $9.88 billion. The company anticipates fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.50 per share, plus or minus 15 cents, versus estimates of $2.01 per share.



&#8220;We are on track to deliver record revenue with solid profitability and free cash flow in fiscal 2025, while we make disciplined investments to build on our technology leadership and manufacturing excellence to satisfy growing AI-driven memory demand,&#8221; Mehrotra said.



Micron&#8217;s management team will further discuss details of the quarter on a call with analysts and investors at 4:30 p.m. ET.



MU Price Action: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MU" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Micron shares</a> were up 3.74% in after-hours Wednesday, trading at $132 at the time of publication, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46098656/nvidia-amazon-tesla-among-tech-stocks-hedge-funds-are-piling-into-heres-how-etfs-like-ivv-spy-voo-are-riding-the-wave">Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla Among Tech Stocks Hedge Funds Are Piling Into — Here&#8217;s How ETFs Like IVV, SPY, VOO Are Riding The Wave</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock.

Earnings

Guidance

After-Hours Center

Micron Q3 Earnings: Revenue, EPS Beat Estimates As Data Center Revenue More Than Doubles, Strong Guidance On Rising AI-Driven Demand

With an ugly geopolitical flashpoint seemingly averted for now, Brazilian energy giant Petrobras (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBR#NYSE">PBR</a>) and other hydrocarbon specialists incurred some red ink during the midweek session. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump declared that a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46090358/us-stocks-likely-to-edge-higher-as-iran-israel-ceasefire-holds-micron-technology-general-mills-in-focus-ahead-of-earnings">ceasefire between Israel and Iran</a> was in effect, despite reports of renewed hostilities putting the deal into question. For now, the agreement seems to be holding. Still, the tenuous framework may eventually present a cynical upside opportunity for PBR stock.



On a Truth Social post, Trump stated that "Israel is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran." Assuming that the ceasefire leads to a more sustained solution, the threat of global oil disruption has declined, thus leading to increasing pressure against PBR stock and its ilk.



Since Israel launched its attack against Iran on June 13, a key concern has been the Strait of Hormuz. A pivotal energy artery, the passage accounts for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46056666/how-a-strait-of-hormuz-shock-could-ignite-a-surge-in-energy-and-defense-etfs">nearly one-third of the world's oil supply</a>. With the U.S. military launching B-2 bombers to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/46082397/oil-prices-tumble-as-israel-iran-ceasefire-takes-shape-for-now">strike multiple Iranian nuclear facilities</a>, tensions and anxieties skyrocketed.



Even with the ceasefire in effect, analysts remain cautious, pointing to the fragile nature of the agreement, along with the potential for renewed clashes. A major source of friction is the stated reason why Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran: the country's nuclear program.



According to a CBS News <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-nuclear-program-strikes-iaea-monitoring/">report</a>, an initial classified intelligence assessment revealed that Iran's nuclear capability was only set back by months. What's more, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf stated that the peaceful nuclear program will "move forward at a faster pace."



If so, a geopolitical cloud continues to hang over the region, which could potentially ignite oil prices.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Leveraging Statistics To Trade PBR Stock</h2>



Although the concept of the energy market swinging back to life following another unexpected event may be enticing, it also lacks specificity. For those interested in trading PBR stock options, it's not enough to have a thesis regarding the magnitude component or the y-axis of the price chart. Rather, the targeted move must also materialize within the specified time element (x-axis) due to options expiring.



In other words, options traders live in a world of probabilities, which incentivizes statistical analysis. At first glance, this exercise seems simple enough: merely take the frequency of the desired outcome divided by the total number of events in the target dataset. However, this approach only calculates the derivative probability or the outcome odds over the dataset's entire distribution. What traders are looking for is the conditional probability — outcome odds over a specific subset of the data.



Derivative probabilities are akin to the advice that educators often give: because the <a href="https://thecollegesolution.com/the-odds-of-a-full-ride-athletic-scholarship/">odds</a> of receiving an athletic scholarship are so low, it's best to focus on academic scholarship opportunities. But if you're a phenomenal football player, your conditional odds of receiving a full ride based on your athletic abilities may be exponentially greater than the aggregate odds.



That's essentially the point about PBR stock. Based on its price action and past analogs, PBR may be poised to perform better than it usually does. But to calculate the odds, we must first convert past price data into a unified language, which is where market breadth comes in. As sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions, market breadth is effectively binary and thus enables categorization and quantification. Ultimately, these attributes empower probabilistic analysis.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-962129" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25145642/PBR-stock-10wk-forecast.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>



Currently, PBR stock is printing a "4-6-U" sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, the conversion of past pricing data into a binary code compresses the underlying magnitude component. However, the key benefit of this compression is the categorization of price action as discrete behavioral states. These states reflect past analogs, which can be studied to determine the likelihood of transition from one state to another.



From past empirical data, we can objectively determine that when the 4-6-U sequence flashes, the following week's price action results in upside 68.75% of the time, with a median return of 2.43%. Should the bulls maintain control of the market for a second week, the projected upside return is 2.58%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Daring But Enticing Call Spread To Consider</h2>



Based on the market intelligence above, aggressive speculators may consider the 12/13 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $12 call and simultaneously selling the $13 call, for a net debit paid of $48 (the most that can be lost in the trade). Should PBR stock rise through the short strike price ($13) at expiration, the maximum reward is $52, a payout of over 108%.



For those who are super-aggressive, the 12.50/13 bull spread (also expiring on July 18) is available. Here, the net debit is lower at $17 and the max reward is $33, translating to a payout of over 194%. However, the breakeven price for this trade is $12.67 as opposed to $12.48 for the 12/13 spread, meaning that the probabilistic risk is also higher.



Still, the common incentive undergirding both trades is the implied shift in sentiment regime of the 4-6-U sequence. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in PBR stock will be profitable over any given week is only 51.82%. Therefore, those already prone to speculation have a statistical incentive to swing the bat.



The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/options/25/06/46083803/tjx-stock-upside-shoppers-hunt-discounts">Options Corner: TJX Companies May Be Poised For Upside As Shoppers Hunt For Discounts</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Options

Events

Global

Options Corner: A Tenuous Ceasefire Keeps Petrobras In Play For Opportunistic Traders

It's already been an eventful week for U.S. markets, with tensions in the Middle East bubbling and then calming down following a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46042703/iran-calls-us-bombing-of-nuclear-sites-very-very-dangerous-for-everybody">weekend of bombardment.</a> But despite the uncertainty regarding a potential ceasefire, the stock and commodities markets shrugged it off with the NASDAQ 100 finally notching a new all-time high and oil prices dipping back under $66 per barrel.



Markets are not out of the woods yet, as consumer sentiment continues to be shaky and the Fed remains on hold awaiting more economic data on the impact of tariffs. But the trend toward new all-time highs appears strong and retail traders are back to being bullish.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">July 4th Sale: Save Up To $1,200 On Benzinga Pro</h2>



Your current setup is costing you money, whether it's free or expensive. Scattered tools mean missed opportunities. Consolidate everything into one powerful platform that actually works together. Stop missing opportunities. Sign up <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register/4th-of-july-sale/?utm_campaign=bzpro-4th&amp;el=ResearchDaily&amp;he={{email}}&amp;adt_ei={{email}}&amp;utm_adType=SponsorAd&amp;utm_ad=RD062625">HERE</a> for Benzinga Pro at 60% off. 



Each of the five stocks rates highly on Benzinga Edge's Value Score rankings and exhibits technical signals indicating that momentum shifts may be brewing beneath the surface.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Costamare Inc.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 98.04



Bulk shippers like Costamare (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMRE#NYSE">CMRE</a>) have been caught in the Trump administration's tariff tug-of-war, but the decline has been so steep that the stock now appears undervalued. Despite a Q1 2025 earnings beat on both EPS and revenue, CMRE trades at just 3.7 times earnings and 0.5 times sales, and the dividend now yields over 5%.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXepogNA3oub0pkCTAE-Z1tJik259Dyf1zUxOYl00I0O1bb-228WkeiN_0bLeOw-H58rgG6TCAGG648vqj8Vbhxk-BLL23pBWuZ2A1gjIy6pLmgml2JBiLIoJ1dimfcwCPqqFeotng?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



CMRE spent most of the last 12 months in a prolonged downtrend. The stock peaked at $12.75 in June 2024 before dropping nearly 50%, with frequent false signals when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tripped the Oversold alarm.&nbsp; But the stock rallied after the market bottom that followed Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement, gaining 10% and finally breaking through the long-term resistance level that had been in place for nearly a year. The RSI anticipated the breakout and actually triggered an Overbought signal twice in May and June, but now that it's back below 70, the new uptrend can continue.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Peabody Energy Corp.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 98.08



Coal miners have also struggled in 2025 despite reassurances from the Trump administration. Small caps like Peabody (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BTU#NYSE">BTU</a>) ($1.54 billion market cap) have been trending downward since Election Day. But BTU now trades at just 5 times forward earnings and 0.4 times sales, but its terrible start to 2025 (down 40% year-to-date) could be about to change. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfX88YZ1zVqX8S0ODVvGaIsbqlVMPbJVvQwyRuFdNFUxuE1_GwHNMv2wqPlCrEFp1AtWvhErPuUtfKjbjMpBBfPjkFcmx5Rj_5vepvdoj2-354hA0QxQC-bDTycZw4Om8r0T3JI?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Peabody's stock didn't experience a lengthy drawdown like CMRE, but the decline's brevity didn't mask its fierceness. The stock dropped more than 60% from Election Day to Easter, trading in a tight range with multiple failed attempts to breach support and resistance levels. The downtrend finally broke in April, and although the stock hasn't exactly gone parabolic, the breakout was confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover in May. The climb back to new highs might be a slow one, but BTU has an attractive valuation and a chart signaling the momentum has turned. It also still has a short interest of over 17%, which could further fuel any rallies in the coming days or weeks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hello Group Inc.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 97.31



Hello Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MOMO#NASDAQ">MOMO</a>) was a meme stock before there were meme stocks; its chart from 2017 and 2018 is enough to give even seasoned investors vertigo. But those days are long gone, and the stock has spent years trying to break out of a fortress-like resistance level. However, now that the stock trades at just eight times earnings and 0.7 times sales, investors are giving it a second look, and that resistance level has finally been broken.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeqIMYt2D-5FPmnHZ_uycJYfVUM6YpwpfWPBVAv55Si8bSEmdGYFnbMmICjgpqFm7N9CyeylBor1Kg7qXSU3iNJvqpHfMR-rpui8p9nzZl0jTmylGY-Px19kB0_Og03AKpJcVT1Tw?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Talk about lengthy range-bound trading, Hello Group has traded between $5 and $8 since September 2023, and has failed multiple attempts to break through the resistance level above the $8 mark. But the MACD is showing outsized bullish momentum compared to previous quarters. The share price finally crested $8.15 for the first time in nearly two years. Volatility is increasing (did you expect something different with the ticker MOMO?), but if the old resistance level becomes support, this stock might not be done posting explosive gains in 2025.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 95.46



Hamilton (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HG#NYSE">HG</a>), a small-cap insurer based in Bermuda, has a market capitalization of $2.15 billion and annual sales of $2.3 billion. Strong earnings and guidance raises have fueled the stock's recent upward move, as the company handily beat EPS (0.48 per share vs. the expected 0.04) and revenue estimates ($843 million vs. the expected $498 million). But despite this massive beat, the stock still trades at just 5 times forward earnings and 0.9 times sales. 



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfpPbi5r2etuPt1EIIZowVx3H4uW2WOWxCi8fU0PFtBA9UG1fwnOpVci1FucqSDMPc-9yfRD9qvdOuBlp5tNDwJNuNnNYYGA5vn9utbV2AX4LP6GcvvbkMU4bmrkkqkBeTFPTSzPw?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Above is a chart showing an undervalued company poised to build a new bull market. The stock price has been trading above both the 50-day and 200-day MAs, with the 50-day MA acting as support since mid-2024. Trump's tariffs briefly interrupted this trend, but the price quickly rose back above both MAs and appears to be balancing along the 50-day once again. The RSI is also back under 60 after a brief venture into Overbought territory, so another bounce off the 50-day would likely have strong upside momentum.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tri-Pointe Homes Inc.&nbsp;</h2>



Benzinga Edge Value Score: 95.14



Investing in homebuilders is a dicey proposition at the moment, considering the headwinds facing the construction industry. However, Tri-Pointe's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TPH#NYSE">TPH</a>) surprisingly strong Q1 2025 earnings indicate a resilient company capable of weathering economic turbulence. TPH posted EPS figures of $0.70 per share, easily exceeding the $0.45 per share estimate. The April report also triggered a momentum shift in the stock, which currently trades at just 8.9 times forward earnings and 0.65 times sales.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeDNgKBM88C12hDZmnsVLwopEb16MbGlyPNMOyDcylqxqTQWvF_bLukcvCnDXwF6O4NXh1gpzT4GWBJ6m31JGOwgYSg4-Ao8sf8ytTSwfcNKN4QsfphbXe46Qnj6CAbuq54dapFhQ?key=hP5zZ9dGchmBHAd5CwfA1Q" alt=""/></figure>



Like most homebuilders, TPH's shares couldn't shake downward momentum as high mortgage rates kept the housing market frozen. Housing is still struggling to gain traction (highlighted by this week's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/macro-notification/25/06/46070420/us-home-sales-sink-to-slowest-may-since-2009-as-mortgage-rates-and-record-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sidelines">poor report</a> in new home sales), but TPH has finally broken its downtrend, and momentum is slowly consolidating at a new support level. The RSI has been trending upward in unison with the stock price, giving more weight to the momentum shift. And with the RSI sitting at 57, the upswing likely has more room to run.



Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.



Photo: Shutterstock

Small Cap

Opinion

CMRE

MOMO

5 Undervalued Small Caps Showing Signs Of Breaking Out

Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/TSLA/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">maintained a Neutral</a> on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) with a price forecast of $285 on Wednesday.



Delaney stated that Tesla began robotaxi operations on June 22 in Austin, Texas, for a small group of early access individuals.



The analyst recalled that Tesla had said the initial fleet would likely consist of 10-20 Model Y vehicles.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/45868546/why-is-tesla-stock-trading-higher-on-tuesday" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla Stock Rises After Austin DMV Recognizes Company as Official Operator of Autonomous Vehicles</a>



Based on available data on Tesla&#8217;s robotaxi launch from news reports and the social media platform X, Delaney&#8217;s initial view is that the launch is both a sign of Tesla&#8217;s progress with its FSD technology and a sign that scaling in the near term will be slow.



The analyst discussed his views on three key items from the launch and their valuation or stock implications.



Delaney&#8217;s initial thoughts on the early rides&#8217; performance generally show a good degree of drive smoothness. Still, one user posted a navigation issue with improper use of a left turn lane. He considered this navigation error somewhat concerning, especially considering the limited number of vehicles on the road.



The analyst also discussed how Tesla&#8217;s Austin service currently compares to Alphabet Inc&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) Waymo, including the operating area. He writes that the areas and conditions in which the Tesla Robotaxi can operate are currently more limited relative to Waymo. Waymo currently operates 24/7 in ~37 sq miles of Austin, whereas Tesla is limited to 6 a.m. to midnight and in a smaller area of Austin.



Additionally, Delaney mentioned that the Tesla Robotaxi service is only available to a select group of early-access users, while Waymo is available to all users on the Uber app.



On pricing, Tesla is currently charging a flat fee of $4.20 for its rides, while Waymo (operating through the Uber app) is charged like a traditional Uber ride (with pricing shown at the time of booking).&nbsp;&nbsp;



Delaney noted that the use of an Austin-specific tech stack, a Tesla employee present in the vehicle, and the navigation issue suggested scaling will be slow, implying a delay in the availability of FSD on personal vehicles in a wide operating area.



Separately, the regulatory environment will be key to monitor and could determine the speed of the ramp as well, he said. However, according to the analyst, new federal rules could help speed up AV adoption.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Delaney remarked that the commercial launch was a step toward Tesla addressing the AV rideshare market (he estimated the demand for AV rideshare in 2030 in the U.S. would be about $7 billion).



Delaney projects fiscal 2025 revenue of $89.5 billion and EPS of $1.10.



Price Action:&nbsp;TSLA stock was down 4.06% at $326.65 at the last check Wednesday.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/price-target/25/04/44850615/teslas-future-growth-from-robotaxis-and-new-products-intact-despite-q1-miss-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla&#8217;s Future Growth From Robotaxis And New Products Intact Despite Q1 Miss: Analyst</a></li>
</ul>



Photo by Josiah True via Shutterstock

Price Target

Reiteration

Analyst Ratings

GOOG

GOOGL

TSLA

Tesla Robotaxi Scaling Growth Will Be Slow In Near Term: Goldman Sachs

Tech stocks climbed to new highs early Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 briefly touching 22,329 points after the opening bell, surpassing its previous <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46096528/nasdaq-100-record-highs-rally-historical-performance">peak from February 19.</a> 



Yet, by midday trading, the rally lost steam, with major indices giving back early gains. By 12:30 p.m. ET, the Nasdaq 100 was trading at 22,234, up 0.2% on the day. Other large-cap benchmarks hovered near the flatline, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.7%, reflecting weakness in small-cap names.



At a NATO meeting in the Netherlands, President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains in place and that the United States will continue exerting pressure on Tehran. He clarified that while sanctions remain, Iran is currently allowed to sell oil to China.



Trump also renewed his call for NATO allies to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP, more than double the current 2% guideline, arguing that Europe must carry a larger share of the military burden.



In day two of his testimony before Congress, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that evolving trade conditions could influence monetary policy decisions, suggesting that future trade agreements might create room for interest rate cuts—though no timing was provided.



Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) led chipmaker gains, rising 3.1% and reaching its highest level since early December 2024. The stock is tracking toward its strongest monthly performance since May 2023.



The broader chip sector is also rallying. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) is up 15% month-to-date, on track for its best monthly return since November 2023.



Bond markets were steady, with the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.31%, showing little reaction to Powell's testimony or geopolitical headlines.



In commodities, oil prices rebounded 2% to $66 per barrel, after falling more than 12% over the previous two sessions. In industry news, Shell plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHEL#NYSE">SHEL</a>) is reportedly in early-stage talks to acquire rival BP plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BP#NYSE">BP</a>), though no formal offer has been made yet.



Gold was unchanged at $3,328 per ounce, while silver gained 0.5% to $36.



In crypto markets, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) advanced 1.2%, trading just above $107,000. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices</td><td>Price</td><td>1-day %chg</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>22,234.43</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>6,097.13</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>43,038.39</td><td>-0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,145.84</td><td>-0.7%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) flattened at $559.54.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.2% lower to $429.91.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;edged 0.2% up to $540.48.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.7% to $212.93.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 0.6%; the&nbsp;Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, down 1.2%.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>FedEx Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) fell 2% despite beating earnings estimates as the outlook was less optimistic than expected. </li>



<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAYX#NASDAQ">PAYX</a>), down 9%, and General Mills Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GIS#NYSE">GIS</a>), down 3.7%. </li>



<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) tumbled 4.5% after new car sales recorded a 27% year-over-year decline in Europe. </li>



<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), the 2025&#8217;s top-performing chipmaker company as of late June, will report earnings after the close. </li>
</ul>



Read now:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/46099022/best-ai-stocks-nvidia-semiconductors-top-performers">The AI Rally Just Flipped—These Stocks Are Now Outgunning Nvidia </a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Large Cap

Macro Economic Events

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Commodities

Econ #s

Economics

PAYX

SHEL

SOXX

XLRE

Tech Stocks Notch New Highs As Chipmakers Power The Rally: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

The Nasdaq 100 index hit fresh all-time highs on Wednesday after surging more than 30% in just 12 weeks since early April&#8217;s tariff-driven selloff, a pace of gains seen only 10 times since the index&#8217;s<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/technology-stocks"> inception in 1986. </a>



This rare upward momentum is prompting a key question for investors: Is it a sign of a market peak or the start of an even larger bull run?



Historical precedent shows that similar momentum has more often sparked major follow-through rallies than abrupt reversals, though not without important exceptions.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Nasdaq 100 Hits Record Highs After Massive V-Shaped Rally From April Lows</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25095208/image-384-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-961685" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25095208/image-384-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25095208/image-384-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25095208/image-384-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25095208/image-384-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25095208/image-384-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46074385/nasdaq-seasonality-summer-record-highs">Nasdaq 100&#8217;s Summer Sweet Spot Is Here &#8211; And It Rarely Disappoints</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Rare Is A 30% 12-Week Rally—and What Happens Next?</h3>



Since 1986, the Nasdaq 100 – as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) – has posted a 30%-plus rally over 12 weeks on just 10 occasions before this one. 



While a couple of these moves coincided with market tops—most notably in 2000 and 2001—the majority paved the way for extended bull markets. 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>June 2020: The Nasdaq 100 had already surged more than 30% in 12 weeks off the March 2020 pandemic low. Far from marking a top, the index then went on to gain an additional 70% by November 2021, boosted by tech dominance and unprecedented monetary stimulus.</li>



<li>May 2009: After the global financial crisis, a 30% rally over 12 weeks turned into a major bull market. The Nasdaq 100 climbed another 430% through October 2018, one of the longest expansions in tech history.</li>



<li>November 1998: A powerful rebound following the 1998 Russian sovereign crisis, which led to the LCTM crisis, the Nasdaq 100 then surged over 220% in just 16 months, peaking in March 2000.</li>



<li>March 1998: The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from a negative 1997, and the rally extended by a further 20% until August 1998. </li>



<li>February 1991: A recovery from the Gulf War recession drove a further 55% advance by January 1992, even as the economy transitioned into a slower growth phase.</li>
</ul>



Other instances were more muted:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>July 1997: The rally faded into a sideways consolidation lasting about a year.</li>



<li>February 1988: After rebounding from the 1987 crash, the index moved within a tight range until March 1989, when a new bull phase began.</li>
</ul>



Cautionary signals did emerge in two cases:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>December 1999: The index rose another 45% into March 2000, then collapsed during the dot-com bust.</li>



<li>December 2001: A short-lived rebound in a bear market was followed by a further 50% drop as the tech sector bottomed only in October 2002.</li>



<li>March 1987: After a rapid year-to-date 36% rise through mid-March, the Nasdaq 100 gained another 12% before the October 1987 crash erased 40% of its value.</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Institutional Buying Backs The Tech Trend</h3>



Backing the current rally is not just sentiment—it's capital. 



According to Bank of America, institutional clients bought tech stocks at record levels in the week ending June 20. 



The buying spree, especially from long-term players, indicates growing confidence that the tech rally may have further room to run.



"We grew more constructive on Tech earlier this month," the bank said in its latest strategy note.



Despite tighter monetary conditions, tech earnings remain a key driver. 



Savita Subramanian, Bank of America's head of equity and quant strategy, highlighted that while the era of ultra-low rates may be over, earnings strength continues to justify tech's dominance in the S&amp;P 500.



&#8220;Tech earnings continue to lead the S&amp;P 500, although the growth differential between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the index has narrowed and is expected to continue to do so,&#8221; she added. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Top Or A Takeoff?</h3>



The Nasdaq 100's recent rally mirrors the kind of strength seen before prolonged bull markets in 2020, 2009 and the late 1990s. 



While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the combination of historical precedent, earnings leadership and institutional accumulation suggests this rally may be less about exhaustion—and more about ignition.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46081553/nvidia-stock-forecast-trump-china-golden-cross-ai">Nvidia&#8217;s Big Moment Is Back—Stock Exploded 500% The Last Time This Happened </a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Nasdaq 100 Hits Record Highs After 30% Rally: History Suggests It's Not Done Yet

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/cathie-wood">Cathie Wood</a>'s two favorite <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/elon-musk">Elon Musk ventures</a>—Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/spacex">SpaceX</a> &#8211; are heading for the stratosphere, but not at the same speed.



According to Wood's latest projections, Tesla stock could hit <a href="https://www.barchart.com/story/news/31623928/why-cathie-wood-thinks-tesla-stock-can-still-hit-2-600-by-2030">$2,600</a> by 2030 &#8211; that&#8217;s a jaw-dropping $8.19 trillion market cap (assuming no change in shares outstanding). On the other hand, she sees SpaceX at a lofty <a href="https://unusualwhales.com/news/ark-invest-estimates-spacexs-value-could-grow-from-350-billion-today-to-2-5-trillion-by-2030">$2.5 trillion</a> by 2030.



That means SpaceX, even after launching thousands of satellites and pioneering global broadband via Starlink, would be valued at just 30.5% of Tesla, giving investors a dramatically lower-cost way to bet on Musk's empire.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46095199/netflix-meta-microsoft-power-qqqs-golden-cross-is-the-rally-just-beginning">Netflix, Meta, Microsoft Power QQQ&#8217;s Golden Cross – Is The Rally Just Beginning?</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Starlink Lifts Off, But Tesla Stays ARK's Crown Jewel</h2>



ARK's thesis? Starlink's constellation &#8211; en route to 42,000 satellites &#8211; could haul in $300 billion annually, putting it in Apple Inc territory. "Starlink will be the primary driver of SpaceX's growth," ARK notes, seeing it capture 15% of global communications spending.



Yet even with that, Tesla's innovation stack &#8211; from EVs to Optimus robots and energy storage &#8211; remains unmatched in ARK's model. "Tesla aligns perfectly with our disruptive innovation framework," ARK says, sticking to its $2,600/share target despite political drama surrounding Musk's controversial role in President Donald Trump&#8216;s administration.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Public Exposure? Tesla's Easy. SpaceX? Not So Much.</h2>



While Tesla trades on the Nasdaq, SpaceX remains private, forcing investors to access it via its suppliers, such as Garmin Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GRMN#NYSE">GRMN</a>) and Wistron NeWeb, both riding the Starlink expansion wave.



The big picture? Wood expects both companies to dominate their domains. But if you&#8217;re looking for the cheaper Musk stock, SpaceX might just be the bargain, assuming it ever goes public.



Until then, investors will have to choose: the headline-hogging Tesla, or the stealthy satellite surge of Starlink's mothership.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46075062/why-this-fidelity-fund-manager-is-buying-china-tech-over-the-magnificent-seven">Why This Fidelity Fund Manager Is Buying China Tech Over The Magnificent Seven</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: JHVEPhoto/Shutterstock

GRMN

Cathie Wood's 2030 Math: Tesla Rockets Past SpaceX By $5.7T

The artificial intelligence rally that made Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) a market juggernaut appears to have entered a new phase in 2025, as a sharp rotation in semiconductor leadership has seen rivals outperform <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/chipmakers">the AI front-runner.</a>



Despite rising nearly 14% through the end of June, Nvidia now lags behind a group of chipmakers delivering significantly stronger gains.



Crucially, Nvidia&#8217;s long-held outperformance over the broader chip sector—tracked by the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>)—has nearly evaporated in the first half of the year.



Is this just a pause in Nvidia's dominance, or the beginning of a more permanent shift in the AI hardware race?



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nvidia Is No Longer The Top Chip Gainer</h3>



After dominating the AI-fueled bull runs of 2023 and 2024, Nvidia has posted a modest year-to-date gain of 13.6% as of June 25, fully recovering from a Deepseek-driven selloff in January. 



But while Nvidia is in the green, several rival chipmakers have surged ahead.



Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) leads the pack, up 44.5% through June. KLA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KLAC#NASDAQ">KLAC</a>) follows with a 40.4% gain, and Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LRCX#NASDAQ">LRCX</a>) has jumped 32.9%. 



Other notable performers include Arm Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) with a 24% rise, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) up 19.1% and Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) gaining 14.7%.



By contrast, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) has added 13%, nearly matching Nvidia, while the broader sector tracked by the Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>) rose 10%.



This marks a reversal from 2024, when Nvidia soared 179.3%, more than doubling the returns of TSM, which gained 93.8%.



In 2023, Nvidia delivered a staggering 236.5% return, leaving AMD (+116.5%) and Broadcom (+100.1%) in the dust. That level of dominance is now being challenged. 



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Stock Name</th><th>YTD Gain (as of June 25,2025)</th><th>2024 Performance</th><th>2023 Performance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Micron Technology Inc. </td><td>+44.5%</td><td>+2.3%</td><td>+63.5%</td></tr><tr><td>KLA Corp. </td><td>+40.4%</td><td>+9.5%</td><td>+48.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Lam Research Corp. </td><td>+32.9%</td><td>-7.5%</td><td>+80.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Arm Holdings PLC </td><td>+24.0%</td><td>+70.6%</td><td>—</td></tr><tr><td>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. </td><td>+19.1%</td><td>-18.2%</td><td>+116.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Broadcom Inc. </td><td>+14.7%</td><td>+107.8%</td><td>+100.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Nvidia Corp. </td><td>+13.6%</td><td>+179.3%</td><td>+236.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. </td><td>+13.0%</td><td>+93.8%</td><td>—</td></tr><tr><td>Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF </td><td>+10.0%</td><td>+20.2%</td><td>+60.9%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Is The AI Leadership Rotating?</h3>



The sector rotation may reflect a broadening investor focus across the AI hardware stack.



While Nvidia continues to dominate AI accelerators, analysts see expanding opportunities in memory, manufacturing, and equipment, where companies like Micron, Lam and KLA are well-positioned.



In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya estimated that the global AI data center market could grow from about $250 billion today to about $1 trillion by 2030, reflecting a 26% compound annual growth rate.



That growth rate is more than three times faster than overall IT spending, which Arya expects to rise at an 8% pace.



More than $800 billion of the projected $1 trillion market could be allocated to generative AI computing, networking and storage infrastructure.



AI servers are expected to dominate spending, accounting for roughly 80–85% of the total addressable market, or about $700 billion—including approximately $650 billion in accelerators. Networking is projected to capture 10–15%, or $74 billion, while storage will represent around 5%, or $39 billion. 



By 2030, total spending on AI data center systems is forecast to exceed 10% of global IT expenditures and make up more than 80% of all data center infrastructure outlays.



&#8220;We expect every major country/region to invest in creating its independent&nbsp;sovereign&nbsp;AI factory, trained in local language, culture, generating high-tech employment, and serving critical healthcare, defense, industrial, financial and cyber needs,&#8221; Arya said.



According to Bank of America Nvidia is expected to retain more than 80% of the AI accelerator market over time, while AMD is projected to hold around 5%. 



&#8220;Nvidia remains key beneficiary, but the rising tide is also positive Broadcom, AMD, Marvell, optical, foundry, memory, and semicap peers,&#8221; he added. 



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46081553/nvidia-stock-forecast-trump-china-golden-cross-ai">Nvidia&#8217;s Big Moment Is Back—Stock Exploded 500% The Last Time This Happened</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Who is Danny/Shutterstock

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The AI Rally Just Flipped—These Stocks Are Now Outgunning Nvidia

Iran&#8217;s Foreign Ministry has confirmed that the country&#8217;s nuclear facilities have suffered significant damage due to American strikes over the past weekend.



What Happened: Iran&#8217;s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei has confirmed that the country&#8217;s nuclear facilities have been &#8220;badly damaged&#8221; due to American strikes over the weekend, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/irans-foreign-ministry-says-nuclear-facilities-badly-damaged-by-us-strikes/">reported</a> The Times of Israel on Wednesday.



In an interview with Al Jazeera, Baghaei didn't share specific details but acknowledged that Sunday's strikes by American B-2 bombers using bunker buster bombs had a significant impact. &#8220;Our&nbsp;nuclear installations have been badly&nbsp;damaged, that's for sure,&#8221; he said.



SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/46087464/bitcoins-400x-rise-aside-cathie-wood-says-the-next-exciting-leg-is-just-beginning" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Bitcoin&#8217;s 400x Rise Aside, Cathie Wood Says The &#8216;Next Exciting Leg&#8217; Is Just Beginning</a>



Why It Matters: The U.S. military&#8217;s strikes on Iran&#8217;s nuclear facilities have been a subject of much debate. A preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment suggested that the strikes <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46086403/us-attack-on-iranian-nuclear-sites-reportedly-set-tehran-back-only-a-few-months-white-house-calls-assessment-flat-out-wrong">may not have </a>completely destroyed the core components of Iran&#8217;s nuclear program, setting back the program by only a few months.



Amid these developments, President&nbsp;Donald Trump&nbsp;declared a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46072859/trump-says-israel-is-not-going-to-attack-iran-after-ceasefire-violation-turn-around-and-head-home">despite reports</a> of renewed hostilities. This came after Israel accused Iran of violating the U.S.-brokered truce.



Despite the ceasefire being violated by both sides,&nbsp;Daniel Ives, the managing director at Wedbush Securities, labeled the reported ceasefire between Iran and Israel as "the most bullish outcome" for U.S. markets. He predicted a rally in U.S. stocks once trading resumes, citing historical trends where <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46071676/dan-ives-says-iran-israel-ceasefire-could-be-most-bullish-outcome-yet-for-wall-street-even-as-both-sides-break-truce">geopolitical stability </a>has triggered a 2-3% market uptick within a week.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/46088581/federal-reserve-on-alert-amid-potential-iranian-cyberattack-threats-says-jerome-powell-its-a-big-issue">Federal Reserve On &#8216;Alert&#8217; Amid Potential Iranian Cyberattack Threats, Says Jerome Powell: &#8216;It&#8217;s A Big Issue&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Iran Breaks Silence, Says Nuclear Facilities 'Badly Damaged' By US Strikes

Cereal Giant General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GIS#NYSE">GIS</a>) shares dipped in premarket trading Wednesday after the company posted mixed fourth-quarter results and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/b46091246/general-mills-reports-fiscal-2025-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-and-provides-fiscal-2026-ou" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">issued a cautious full-year outlook</a>.



The global packaged food company registered quarterly adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 71 cents. Quarterly sales of $4.56 billion (down 3% year over year) missed the Street view of $4.59 billion.



Organic net sales fell 3%, as expected, including a 2-point hit from unfavorable trade expense timing.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44939726/rfk-jr-will-phase-out-artificial-food-dyes-by-end-of-2026-what-it-means-for-pepsi-coca-cola-general-mills" rel="noreferrer noopener">RFK Jr. Will Phase Out Artificial Food Dyes By End Of 2026: What It Means For Pepsi, Coca-Cola, General Mills</a>



Quarterly net sales for General Mills&#8217; North America Retail segment were down 10% to $2.6 billion,&nbsp;North America Pet segment were up 12% to $675 million, North America Food service segment were down 2% to $579 million, and International segment were up 11% to $739 million.



Adjusted gross margin was down 220 basis points to 32.7% of net sales, driven primarily by higher input costs and unfavorable net price realization and mix.



Unfavorable trade expense timing was a 150-basis point headwind to adjusted gross margin in the quarter.



Adjusted operating profit of $622 million was down 22% in constant currency, driven by lower adjusted gross profit dollars. Adjusted operating profit margin was down 330 basis points to 13.7%.&nbsp;



&#8220;Our number one goal in fiscal 2026 is to restore volume-driven organic sales growth,&#8221; said General Mills Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jeff Harmening.



&#8220;To do that, we&#8217;ll invest further in consumer value, product news, innovation, and brand building, guided by our remarkable experience framework and highlighted by Blue Buffalo&#8217;s national launch into fresh pet food coming later in calendar 2025.&#8221;



The company exited the quarter with cash and equivalents worth $363.9 million and inventories worth $1.91 billion.



General Mills launched a multi-year global transformation initiative under its Accelerate strategy to streamline operations and enhance agility through new tools, technologies, and operating models.



The initiative, along with other efficiency efforts, is expected to deliver $100 million in incremental cost savings in FY2026.



The company declared a quarterly dividend of 61 cents per share, payable August 1, 2025, to shareholders of record July 10, 2025. This represents a 2% increase from the previous quarterly rate.



General Mills expects its fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS to decline 10%-15% in constant currency from the fiscal year 2025 base of $4.21. The company projects organic net sales to range between a 1% decline and a 1% increase.



&#8220;With a clear framework centered on remarkability and positive early returns from our fourth quarter investments, I&#8217;m confident our fiscal 2026 plans will put us on a path back to driving long-term growth in line with our shareholder return model,&#8221; the CEO added.



Price Action: GIS shares are trading lower by 4.51% to $51.00 premarket at last check Wednesday.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/06/45980305/kraft-heinz-bans-artificial-colors-in-us-products-eyes-full-phaseout-by-2027" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kraft Heinz Bans Artificial Colors In US Products, Eyes Full Phaseout By 2027</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock

General

Cereal Giant General Mills' Cautious Outlook Offers Little Crunch, Stock Falls

Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) just flashed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/golden-cross">a Golden Cross</a>, and it's not just a technical footnote &#8211; it's a bullish billboard.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0625"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="627" height="486" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25082252/Screenshot-2025-06-25-at-12.58.33-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-961528" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25082252/Screenshot-2025-06-25-at-12.58.33-PM.png 627w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/25082252/Screenshot-2025-06-25-at-12.58.33-PM-300x233.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 627px) 100vw, 627px" /></a></figure>



<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0625">Chart created using Benzinga Pro</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Golden Cross Confirms The Breakout</h2>



A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above the 200-day SMA, a widely watched indicator that often signals the start of a longer-term uptrend. And in QQQ's case, that signal is now backed by price strength and a powerful tech-heavy backbone.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46074385/nasdaq-seasonality-summer-record-highs">Nasdaq 100&#8217;s Summer Sweet Spot Is Here &#8211; And It Rarely Disappoints</a>



The ETF, which closed Tuesday at $539.78, is now trading above all key simple moving averages (SMA) &#8211; eight, 20, 50 and 200-day. The eight-day SMA sits at $531.40, the 20-day at $528.09, and the 50-day at $501.48 &#8211; each confirming strong upward momentum. 



Even the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) sits at 7.87, adding to the bullish case. With an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 66.09, QQQ isn't yet overbought, but it's clearly heating up.



And the fuel? 



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Netflix, Meta, Microsoft Lead The Charge</h2>



Among the holdings, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFLX#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) are up 44.25%, 18.85% and 17.09% YTD &#8211; the top performers among QQQ's top 10 holdings in 2025.



While Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) are dragging, the market-cap heavyweights are still pulling weight &#8211; Meta riding AI monetization, Netflix cashing in on content strategy and ad tiers, and Microsoft powering ahead with cloud and enterprise strength.



The 52-week high of $540.81, set back in February, is now within whispering distance. If that level is cleared, QQQ may start attracting even more momentum chasers.



Investors looking for a growth barometer beyond individual stocks often use QQQ as a sentiment proxy for the Nasdaq 100. With a technical breakout now confirmed and tech bellwethers doing the heavy lifting, the question isn't whether QQQ is rallying &#8211; it's whether you&#8217;re already in.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/46079549/tech-stocks-eye-record-highs-crude-drops-to-64-on-iran-israel-truce-whats-driving-markets-tuesday">Tech Stocks Eye Record Highs, Crude Drops To $64 On Iran-Israel Truce: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Tuesday?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Technicals

AAPL

NFLX

Netflix, Meta, Microsoft Power QQQ's Golden Cross – Is The Rally Just Beginning?

As U.S. Treasuries wobble under the weight of budget deficits and rate uncertainty, <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets">emerging market debt</a> is quietly staging a comeback — offering higher real yields, currency resilience, and inflation breathing room.



Investors accustomed to reflexively retreating to Treasuries in times of volatility are reconsidering. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) is down over 8% over the past year, and still negative year-to-date.



In contrast, EM debt ETFs are showing strength: the iShares JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEMB#NYSE">LEMB</a>) is up nearly 10% year-to-date, while the VanEck JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMLC#NYSE">EMLC</a>) and the SPDR Bloomberg Emerging Markets Local Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EBND#NYSE">EBND</a>) have returned over 7%.



Even more compelling? These gains come as local inflation trends across emerging markets soften, not heating up.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/06/46064634/vanguard-slashes-fees-across-european-fixed-income-ucits-etfs-enhancing-low-cost-investing-options">Vanguard Slashes Fees Across European Fixed Income UCITS ETFs, Enhancing Low-Cost Investing Options</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Real Yield Advantage Is Back</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="611" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-1024x611.png" alt="" class="wp-image-959609" style="width:736px;height:auto" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-1024x611.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-300x179.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-768x458.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-1536x916.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355.png 1979w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



The numbers tell the story:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Brazil&#8217;s 10-year government bond yields sit at a jaw-dropping 13.84%, while inflation has cooled to 5.32% &#8211; still above target but declining. That's a real yield north of 8%. </li>



<li>India's 10-year yield is 6.36% with inflation just 2.82%.</li>



<li>Indonesia yields 6.76% against inflation of 1.6%.</li>
</ul>



Compare that with the U.S., where 10-year yields are 4.35% and inflation ticked up to 2.4% in May, after four straight months of decline. While still moderate, the uptick &#8211; driven by food and transportation &#8211; suggests limited near-term relief for real yields. Core inflation held steady at 2.8%, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance.



In short, emerging markets are offering stronger inflation-adjusted returns, with less policy ambiguity.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Currency Strength Adds Another Layer</h2>



For years, dollar dominance made EM debt vulnerable. Not anymore. 



The DXY dollar index is down nearly 10% YTD, and Brazil's real has strengthened over 11% against the dollar, boosting total return potential. 



While India and Indonesia have seen more stable currencies, their resilience against the greenback is still a win in the EM debt playbook.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Rate Cut Room &amp; Policy Stability</h2>



With inflation falling and real yields rising, central banks in emerging economies now have room to cut rates &#8211; a powerful tailwind for bond prices. 



India's CPI just hit a six-year low, Brazil is inching toward its inflation target, and Indonesia remains firmly within its policy range. 



That's in stark contrast to the U.S., where the Fed remains caught between stickier core inflation and concerns over fiscal slippage.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How To Play It</h2>



For investors looking to diversify income streams and hedge against dollar volatility:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>LEMB: Up 9.88% YTD, offers broad exposure to sovereign debt in local currency.</li>



<li>EMLC: Up 7.43% YTD, tracks J.P. Morgan's benchmark for EM local debt.</li>
</ul>



These funds also benefit from exposure to stronger currencies and improving macro fundamentals.



U.S. Treasuries may still be the default play for safety, but in 2025, the risk-adjusted returns are flowing toward emerging markets. 



With inflation falling, currencies stabilizing, and yields sky-high, EM debt isn&#8217;t just an alternative anymore &#8211; it might just be the new safe haven.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46014647/wall-street-watches-as-money-flows-out-of-us-markets-is-the-great-rotation-here">Wall Street Watches As Money Flows Out Of US Markets — Is The &#8216;Great Rotation&#8217; Here?</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Bonds

Emerging Markets

EBND

EMLC

LEMB

Bond Bulls Look To Brazil, India, Indonesia As Emerging Market Debt Rallies

The White House&#8217;s deputy chief of staff,&nbsp;Stephen Miller, known for shaping the Trump administration&#8217;s stringent immigration policies, reportedly owns a significant amount of stock in ICE contractor&nbsp;Palantir Technologies Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>).



What Happened: Miller&#8217;s financial disclosures reportedly indicate that he holds up to $250,000 worth of shares in Palantir, a company that plays a crucial role in the operations of U.S. immigration officials. The investment is held in a brokerage account belonging to one of Miller&#8217;s children, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest. The financial filings were <a href="https://www.pogo.org/investigations/stephen-miller-conflicts-of-interest">obtained </a>by the watchdog group Project on Government Oversight, which revealed the revisions as recent as June 4. 



Since the Obama era, Palantir's technology has enabled ICE to consolidate data sources to more effectively identify immigrants for arrest and deportation, with ICE calling its services "Mission Critical."



The investigation also found 11 other officials with Palantir stock holdings, though none as substantial as Miller's, the report said. Don Fox, a former acting head and former general counsel of the Office of Government Ethics, told the watchdog, "He could easily become involved in policy matters that have a direct and predictable impact on Palantir.&#8221;



Meanwhile, Homeland Security spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin dismissed the report as "very silly,&#8221; reported The Independent, while the White House said Miller has assured ethics officials he will continue to recuse himself from any matters that could affect his stock holdings.



The White House did not immediately respond to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga&#8217;s</a> request for comment. 



SEE ALSO: <a href="https://benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/g46054422/blackpoint-cyber-appoints-gagan-singh-to-chief-executive-officer-and-names-jon-murchison-executive" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Blackpoint Cyber Appoints Gagan Singh to Chief Executive Officer and Names Jon Murchison Executive Chairman &#8211; Benzinga</a> 



Why It Matters: In April, Palantir secured nearly a $30 million<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/04/44882049/peter-thiels-palantir-bags-30-million-order-from-ice-for-immigrant-tracking-system"> contract </a>with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to enhance its immigration enforcement tools, focusing on tracking visa overstays and self-deportations through a system called ImmigrationOS. This deal was an expansion of an existing agreement.



Palantir has also been under scrutiny for its role in the Trump administration&#8217;s immigration policies. In June, the company&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45988762/palantir-rejects-surveillance-claims-after-being-compared-to-nazi-collaborators-touts-pltrs-transparent-lineage">rejected allegations</a> of mass surveillance&nbsp;and compared the criticism to collaboration with Nazi Germany and South Africa&#8217;s apartheid regime. The company has been vocal about its commitment to transparency and ethical data use.



Palantir has had a very successful run on Wall Street this year. On a year-to-date basis, the stock surged 90.49%, while over the past year, it gained 483.18%, as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/topics/25/06/46010921/palantirs-head-of-defense-says-xi-jinping-is-decoupling-from-us-warns-america-risks-losing-leverage-if-china-tech-shift-goes-unchecked">Palantir&#8217;s Head Of Defense Says &#8216;Xi Jinping Is Decoupling From Us&#8217; — Warns America Risks Losing Leverage If China Tech Shift Goes Unchecked</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ul>

Trump Advisor Stephen Miller Reportedly Holds Stake Worth Millions In ICE Contractor Palantir: 'He Could Easily...Have A Direct And Predictable Impact'

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