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The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of silver.

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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-13_08h43_42.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Lower Probability Of Stagflation And Recession</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-cooler-consumer-price-index-cpi-spy-mc-05132025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The chart shows the stock market did not break above the breakout line on yesterday's rally.</li>
<li>The chart shows volume yesterday was not heavy, indicating that there is not high conviction in the jump.</li>
<li>Stock market bulls are expecting the market to quickly reach zone 1 (resistance) shown on the chart.</li>
<li>Stock market bears are scratching their heads trying to figure out why President Trump gave China everything it wanted, leaving the U.S with almost nothing in exchange.&nbsp; Bulls respond by saying President Trump has managed to get China to agree to open up to American goods by removing non-monetary barriers.</li>
<li>In our analysis, prudent investors need to remember that China has been promising to open up ever since President Nixon.  China has always talked a good game about opening up, but in reality, it has always maintained restrictions.  </li>
<li>The chart shows the stock market remains below the breakout line after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came cooler than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In our analysis the probabilities of stagflation and recession have decreased.  The reason is the great deal China secured on tariffs.  On the campaign trail, President Trump had promised 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.  Once fentanyl tariffs are removed tariffs on Chinese goods will be only 10%.  As a reference, tariffs on the U.S.'s best ally, the U.K., are also 10%.  The U.S. runs a trade surplus with the U.K. and a massive trade deficit with China.       
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>According to our analysis, the probability of stagflation is now 60%, down from 70% prior.</li>
<li>According to our analysis, the probability of a recession is now 35%, down from 40% prior.  </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the deal with the E.U. will be "a bit slower," but he is optimistic about trade deals with Asian countries.</li>
<li>Ignore the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) this morning – the drop in DJIA is due to UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) suspending guidance.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft Corp (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing buying.
The crypto exchange company Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) is being added to the S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; COIN will replace Discover Financial Services (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DFS#NYSE">DFS</a>) on May 19.&nbsp; COIN is up about 11% as of this writing in the premarket.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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Lower Probability Of Stagflation And Recession, Cooler CPI

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Gold and silver are trading lower after the US and China agreed to a temporary reduction in most tariffs on each other's goods. This could be driving a rotation out of safe-haven assets.

An ounce of gold is now worth more than 100 times an ounce of silver, a rare imbalance only seen twice over the past century — and analysts say it's flashing a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/silver">buy signal for silver.</a>
In 2025, gold has emerged as the undisputed leader among global asset classes, soaring to new heights while silver remains notably behind, widening a gap that few expect to last.
Prices of the yellow metal — tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) — surged to $3,500 per ounce this week, notching fresh all-time highs and delivering nearly 30% in year-to-date gains.
Silver, on the other hand, has lagged well behind. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) hovered at $33.50 per ounce, still 33% below its 2011 peak of $50.
Despite the stark divergence, analysts say this imbalance is the exception, not the rule. Most expect the gold-to-silver ratio to revert sharply, implying silver is primed to outperform in the next leg of the precious metals rally.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/24145438/GOLD_SILVER_2025-04-24_20-54-21_e3a47-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-887412" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/24145438/GOLD_SILVER_2025-04-24_20-54-21_e3a47-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/24145438/GOLD_SILVER_2025-04-24_20-54-21_e3a47-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/24145438/GOLD_SILVER_2025-04-24_20-54-21_e3a47-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/24145438/GOLD_SILVER_2025-04-24_20-54-21_e3a47-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/24145438/GOLD_SILVER_2025-04-24_20-54-21_e3a47.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Could Silver Stage A Remarkable Comeback?</h3>
Goldmoney.com founder James Turk wrote on social media X that a gold-to-silver ratio of 100 is an anomaly and typically marks the beginning of silver's comeback.
"A level of 100 is a rare occurrence in historical context, after which the ratio falls quickly because money floods into silver during bank crises. Silver hasn't lost its usefulness as money. It's just overlooked until the lines form outside of banks,"Turk said. 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">This 110-yr chart shows how rare it is for the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/gold?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#gold</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/silver?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#silver</a> ratio to hit 100:1, after which the ratio falls quickly b/c <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/money?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#money</a> floods into silver during <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bank?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#bank</a> crises. Silver hasn't lost its usefulness as <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/money?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#money</a>. It's just overlooked until the lines form outside of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/banks?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#banks</a>. <a href="https://t.co/qo0HWyH8Wu">pic.twitter.com/qo0HWyH8Wu</a>
&mdash; James Turk (@FGMR) <a href="https://twitter.com/FGMR/status/1914072809073942794?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 20, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Jordan Roy-Byrne, technical analyst and founder of The Daily Gold, noted that silver often outperforms gold after gold experiences its first correction following a major breakout.
"Peak or no peak, there is great value in silver and silver stocks now," Roy-Byrne said. "They are poised to strongly outperform in the next leg up."
According to Crescat Capital macro strategist Otavio Costa, the historical context is telling.
"Over the past 125 years, the ratio has only spent brief moments above the 100 level — extremes like this tend not to persist for long."
He added, "I've never seen the gold-to-silver ratio stay above 100 for long, and I don't see any real upside in betting it pushes higher before it turns. This feels like one of the most compelling opportunities I've come across."
Costa's remarks align with past performance. In 2010, the ratio peaked near 70:1 before silver surged 223% from $15 to $48 within 14 months, while gold gained only 45%. Following the 2020 COVID-19 spike to 124:1, silver doubled in price while gold rose by 31%.
&#8220;You're either in the camp that thinks &#8216;this time is different,&#8217; or you stick with history. I'm definitely in the latter,&#8221; Costa said. 
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">You're either in the camp that thinks "this time is different," or you stick with history. I'm definitely in the latter. I've never seen the gold-to-silver ratio stay above 100 for long, and I don't see any real upside in betting it pushes higher before it turns. This feels… <a href="https://t.co/eHbEdHLe9k">pic.twitter.com/eHbEdHLe9k</a>
&mdash; Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1914774077845500063?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 22, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
A <a href="https://katusaresearch.com/silvers-historic-opportunity-and-the-1001-activation-point/">note</a> from Katusa Research emphasized that silver's so-called "100 to 1 Activation Point" — a signal derived from historical gold-silver spreads — has now been triggered.
Few investors are aware of the "Silver Trade of 1980," the firm noted, when the gold-silver ratio collapsed to 17:1 and silver soared to $50/oz. 
"That means it took just 17 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold," Katusa wrote, adding that when this imbalance resets, silver typically outpaces gold by three to five times during rallies.
This activation point has only been reached twice in the past 25 years. Both times, silver's returns crushed those of gold in the aftermath.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/04/44933680/gold-miners-surge-50-year-to-date-as-record-bullion-prices-drive-optimism-ahead-of-earnings">Gold Miners Surge 50% Year To Date As Record Bullion Prices Drive Optimism Ahead Of Earnings</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: a98ntfp/Shutterstock

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Gold Now Worth 100x More Than Silver: Analysts Say It's Time To Buy The Underdog

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-04-23_08h09_14.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Walk Back From The Brink</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-trump-walks-back-tesla-earnings-tlt-mc-04232025">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;The chart shows that TLT was staying below zone 3.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent rally in bonds after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally did not even reach the top band of zone 3 before failing.&nbsp; This indicated high stress in the bond market.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds were back in the danger zone ahead of the all important $70B 5 year Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>In our analysis, without President Trump walking back from the brink, there was real danger for the auction today to go poorly and push bonds into zone 4 shown on the chart.</li>
<li>As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve as you knew that the bond market was President Trump's pain point.</li>
<li>President Trump walked back from the brink:
<ul>
<li>President Trump said he did not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell.</li>
<li>President Trump said soothing things about China.</li>
<li>Earlier in the day yesterday, Bessent had laid the groundwork, indicating that the situation with China should de-escalate over time.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Immediately after President Trump's comment about not firing Powell, extremely aggressive buying came in the markets.
<ul>
<li>Stocks sharply rose in the after hours.</li>
<li>Bonds rose.</li>
<li>Oil rose.</li>
<li>Dollar rose.</li>
<li>Yen fell.</li>
<li>Gold fell.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reason the yen and gold fell was because after President Trump's walk back, there is less need for safe havens.</li>
<li>Earlier in the afternoon, prior to President Trump's walk back, as full disclosure, We had given signals to take partial profits on gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Newmont Corporation (NEM).  With the benefit of hindsight, these calls now seem prescient, but only time will tell how good these calls were.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock is very popular among retail investors.  Moves in TSLA stock impact sentiment.  After hours, Tesla reported dismal earnings &#8211; the worst in a long time.  Aggressive buying came into TSLA stock when CEO Elon Musk said he would be spending less time on DOGE and more time on his businesses.  This comment from Musk energized Tesla bulls and added to the positive sentiment in the stock market that had started minutes earlier from President Trump's statement.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment is that India may consider zero tariffs on Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) bikes.  Musk is also thinking of expanding into India.</li>
<li>There was considerable Fed speak yesterday.&nbsp; Normally, we would have shared with you the important points from the Fed speak in this morning's Capsule.&nbsp; However, President Trump's comments have rendered the Fed speak meaningless.</li>
<li>Investors should pay careful attention to the results of the Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book will be released today at 2pm ET.</li>
<li>A 20% staff cut at a big company is draconian.  Yet, this is exactly what the new CEO at Intel Corp (INTC) is doing.  Investors love layoffs.  Unfazed by the misery of those who are laid off, investors are cold hearted.  Investors believe the bigger the layoff the better.   Money is flowing into INTC stock on the news.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment are good earnings from Boeing Co (BA), AT&amp;T Inc (T), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), and SAP SE (SAP).</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing aggressive buying.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

The Real Reason Trump Walked Back From The Brink, Tesla Bulls Energized, Intel Cuts

<ul>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>JD</li>
<li>BULL</li>
<li>SLV</li>
<li>GOOGL</li>
<li>CORN</li>
<li>ASIA</li>
<li>$BTC</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

ASIA

BULL

CORN

GOOGL

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of April 22, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-04-21_08h09_09.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Independence</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-turbulent-environment-bonds-king-dollar-dxy-mc-04212025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of the dollar index (DXY).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart also shows gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), Japanese currency yen ETF Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY), SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), and 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).</li>
<li>The chart shows that the dollar is falling.</li>
<li>The falling dollar is leading foreigners to sell bonds.&nbsp; The chart shows bond ETF TLT is falling.</li>
<li>Falling bonds are leading to a selloff in stocks in the early trade.&nbsp; The chart shows S&amp;P 500 ETF SPY is falling.</li>
<li>Investors are rushing to buy gold.&nbsp; The chart shows gold ETF GLD is rising.</li>
<li>The chart shows the Japanese yen is rising as many investors see yen as a safe haven.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, gold ETF GLD and Japanese yen ETF FXY are in our ZYX Allocation Model Portfolios.</li>
<li>The foregoing chain reaction was triggered by the Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett saying that President Trump is studying how to fire Fed Chair Powell.</li>
<li>There is a serious legal question regarding the potential firing of Fed Chair Powell.</li>
<li>At this time, it is very important for investors to understand how decisions are being made in the White House and how the Supreme Court is making decisions when the administration&#8217;s actions are challenged.</li>
<li>In our analysis, if Powell is fired, this is how the markets will likely react:
<ul>
<li>The dollar may go lower.</li>
<li>Bonds may go lower.</li>
<li>Gold may go higher.</li>
<li>Japanese yen may go higher.</li>
<li>It is unclear how stocks would react.&nbsp; The reaction in the stock market will come down to who wins the battle:
<ul>
<li>Foreigners and smart money will likely be the sellers.</li>
<li>The momo crowd will likely be buying.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>On the positive side, President Trump is working on several trade deals.  In our analysis, the announcement of trade deals can potentially bring significant buying into the stock market. Prudent investors should pay attention to President Trump's pain point. On April 10, we shared with you: &#8220;In our analysis, the foregoing played a role, but the real reason for the tariff reversal was likely the rise in bond yields.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In our analysis, yesterday bond yields were getting close to triggering a full blown financial crisis.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>In our analysis, the pause in reciprocal tariffs exposed President Trump's pain point.  </li>
<li>In our analysis, prudent investors need to keep an eye on President Trump's pain point – the pain point is long bond yields spiraling towards 5%.  </li>
<li>There is a high probability that President Trump will act before the pain point is reached.</li>
<li>If President Trump decides to act, trade deals may cushion a potential drop in the stock market if Powell is fired.</li>
<li>In our analysis, prudent investors should keep in mind there is a wide range of possible outcomes.  These outcomes range from a rip roaring rally to the stock market breaking below recent lows shown on the fourth pane on the chart.  </li>
<li>Due to the popularity of Tesla Inc (TSLA) with retail investors, moves in TSLA stock impact stock market sentiment.  TSLA stock is adding to the negative sentiment in the early trade on a report that TSLA may delay a new affordable Model Y for the U.S.</li>
<li>Adding to the negative sentiment this morning is a report that Huawei is getting ready to mass ship an AI chip to compete with NVIDIA Corp (NVDA).  China is depending on Huawei to counter U.S. sanctions on Nvidia chips to China.</li>
<li>Data on leading indicators will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving. The consensus is -0.4%.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  </li>
<li>Any buying at this time should be considered tactical and not strategic.&nbsp; Consider using moderation for any buying.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), (NVDA), and (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing buying.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Politics

Federal Reserve

Selling On Threat To Powell - Dollar, Stocks, And Bonds Fall; Gold And Yen Rise

Futures traders are navigating a minefield <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">as new tariffs</a> send shockwaves across equities, commodities and Treasuries.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Hate Surprises — Especially This Big</h1>
Jim Cagnina, senior market analyst at NinjaTrader, isn't surprised by the ripple effect. "Markets are inherently averse to uncertainty — especially at the scale we&#8217;re seeing with the new tariff regime," he said in an exclusive interview with Benzinga.
With inflation, raw material volatility and global supply chain risks rising, the market&#8217;s mood has clearly shifted to "risk-off."
The S&amp;P 500 futures are already down nearly 15% from their February peak, and Treasuries are feeling the pressure too. "U.S. Treasuries are also selling off big time with the 10 year yield tapping 4.5% in overnight trading," Cagnina noted, calling out the "48-basis-point move" seen last week, as one of the sharpest he&#8217;s seen in years.
As volatility hits the bond market, ETFs like the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>) or ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) may help traders express views on yields and rate moves.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44782555/10-year-treasury-yields-touch-45-amid-growing-tariff-uncertainty">Treasury Yields Hit 3-Year Record Surge Amid Trump Tariff Fears: What Investors Should Know</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Crude, Diesel, Metals Are Suddenly Hot</h1>
While some investors retreat, others are leaning in. Cagnina sees an upside in chaos — particularly in energy and metals.
"This environment is creating real opportunities in the energy space — particularly in Crude Oil, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel and Gasoline futures," he said. Traders looking to ride the tariff-driven momentum in energy could consider the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) or Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>), which offer targeted access to oil and broad energy equities, respectively.
Precious metals are also coming alive. "The bullish case for silver is strong and gaining momentum," he added, pointing to persistent supply deficits. Gold, meanwhile, is "finally acting like the risk-off safe haven many investors have been waiting for."
With Cagnina bullish on silver and gold, ETFs like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) offer a liquid way to gain exposure without diving into futures directly.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Where's The Bottom? Watch These Numbers</h1>
For those brave enough to dip into equities, the magic number is 5000 for S&amp;P 500 futures. "The 5000 level has become a key level – sticky, yet still highly reactive," Cagnina explained. 
If it holds and daily price ranges tighten, that could suggest a bottom is in. Even stronger confirmation would come from a close above 5330, a key Fibonacci level that could flip sentiment from bearish to bullish, noted Cagnina.
For those eyeing a rebound in equities, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) remains the benchmark bet, while Invesco S&amp;P 500 Pure Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RPV#NYSE">RPV</a>) could appeal to bargain hunters anticipating a turnaround.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Every Day Is An Adventure</h1>
To time the turn, Cagnina recommends keeping an eye on the 8-period Exponential Moving Average near 5300. A close above it would be his green light to shift bullish. 
Until then? "Every day is an adventure,&#8221; he said.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44787818/sp-500-could-tank-to-4000-if-trump-put-fizzles-says-jpmorgan">S&amp;P 500 Could Tank To 4,000 If &#8216;Trump Put&#8217; Fizzles, Says JPMorgan</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Specialty ETFs

Technicals

Exclusives

Interview

iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury

EXCLUSIVE: Tariff Uncertainty Turns Traders Cautious — But Oil, Silver Might Be The Escape Hatch, Says Market Analyst

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar index. Trade war concerns and macro uncertainty could lift demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold surged past $3,100, setting a new intra-day high on Monday morning at $3,128 per ounce. Investors rush to safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, including President Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts and a new round of reciprocal tariffs set to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44502030/trump-may-slap-a-20-tariff-on-europe-yet-april-still-offers-rally-hopes-for-european-stocks" rel="noreferrer noopener"> take effect on April 2</a>.
"Tariff issues will continue driving (gold) prices higher until there is some finality to the tit-for-tat campaign," Edward Meier said per Reuters.
The yellow metal gained nearly 19% in 2025, propped by geopolitical concerns and central bank demand. Over the last 15 years, foreign ownership of US treasuries has converged with gold as a percent of central bank reserves. Treasury ownership sank from 25%, while gold reserves rose from 7% to reach the 15% mark.
As gold continues to break records, major financial institutions have revised their price forecasts upward. Goldman Sachs expects it to reach $3,300 per ounce by the end of the year, up from its previous target of $3,100.
Bank of America sees the yellow metal at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44499732/bank-of-america-sees-new-gold-as-a-buy-lifts-price-target-by-50" rel="noreferrer noopener">$3,063 per ounce in 2025 </a>and $3,350 per ounce in 2026, a significant increase from earlier projections of $2,750 and $2,625, respectively. Macquarie has similarly pointed to strong central bank demand and investor inflows as key drivers behind gold's bullish trend.
Despite silver's solid performance, it has not yet exceeded the high from last October, when it traded at $34.78 per ounce. The gold-to-silver ratio, a popular measure of metal's relative performance, has widened, reflecting gold's stronger momentum.
It now takes 91 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold, suggesting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43615367/peter-schiff-predicts-silvers-explosive-catch-up-move-as-the-gold-to-silver-ratio-crosses-901-analysts-foresee-silver-prices-to-touch-38-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">silver may be undervalued</a>. Historically, traders use this ratio to determine whether to favor gold or silver in their portfolios. When the ratio is high, some investors buy silver, expecting it to outperform gold in the future. Conversely, when the ratio is low, they may shift holdings into gold.
Still, pursuing this strategy doesn't require physical exchange and storage of metal. Trading the ratio is convenient through specialized ETFs that offer exposure to metals. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) provide direct exposure to gold, while iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) is a popular option for silver investors. A trader would buy the gold ETF when the ratio is at the lower historical levels and eventually swap for a stake in silver when it gets high.
More aggressive strategies might employ leveraged ETFs like ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UGL#NYSE">UGL</a>) and ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGQ#NYSE">AGQ</a>), which correspond to double the daily performance of the underlying benchmark.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44544885/record-high-gold-prices-start-to-scare-some-investors-as-inflation-anchor-crumbles" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">‘My Spidey Tingles' — Gold's Surge Has Some Investors On Edge</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Media

Gold Surges Past $3,100 As Tariff Uncertainty Sets Silver Ratio Trade

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-03-19_08h15_02.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Dot Plot And Balance Sheet</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-agents-robots-nvidia-turkey-president-nvda-mc-03192025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after a much anticipated keynote speech by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, NVDA stock pulled back to the top band of the mini support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows aggressive buying ahead of Huang's speech in anticipation of NVDA stock going higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the momo crowd's expectations were not met.&nbsp; Those in the momo crowd who primarily buy call options are now sitting on large losses.</li>
<li>Huang's speech was excellent.&nbsp; Here are the key points from The Arora Report's analysis:
<ul>
<li>Nvidia is doing excellent as a company.&nbsp; There is a disconnect between NVDA stock price and Nvidia as a company.</li>
<li>The biggest market of all will be the market for robots.&nbsp; Nvidia is well positioned to provide AI intelligence and systems for robots.</li>
<li>Human-like AI agents are at the cusp of widespread adoption.&nbsp; These agents are based on reasoning models.&nbsp; Reasoning models need significantly more compute than regular models.&nbsp; AI agents will drive demand for Nvidia's chips.</li>
<li>Nvidia is moving into autonomous driving.&nbsp; Nvidia announced a deal with General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>).</li>
<li>Nvidia is widening its lead over competitors.</li>
<li>Nvidia is strengthening its moat.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Here is the question everyone is asking: In spite of so many positives, why did NVDA stock not rocket up?  </li>
<li>We have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44380831/the-opposite-of-what-wall-street-told-you-about-stocks-has-happened-key-nvidia-event-ahead">previously shared</a> with readers that the problem NVDA stock has is over-ownership.</li>
<li>Nvidia illustrates the beauty of the highly refined, multilayer methodology followed by members of The Arora Report.
<ul>
<li>The original core position in NVDA stock is long from $12.55 and most of the position is still being held.&nbsp; This illustrates the power of the ZYX Change Method to buy a stock when it is in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ppp-long-trade-ppp">stage one</a>.</li>
<li>The fact that most of the position is still being held, resulting in major gains, shows the foresight that comes from decades of experience.</li>
<li>Along the way, there have been successful, shorter term, trade around positions.</li>
<li>The core position is appropriately hedged to preserve the gains.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.  The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged.  We will be carefully analyzing the following:
<ul>
<li>The dot plot</li>
<li>The Fed's balance sheet, especially regarding QT</li>
<li>How Powell straddles the uncertainty caused by tariffs</li>
<li>The Fed's take on rising consumer inflation expectations.&nbsp; Rising consumer inflation expectations are the last thing the Fed wants to see.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The momo crowd's historical pattern is to buy ahead of the Fed meeting on hopium.&nbsp; This morning is no different.&nbsp; The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade hoping the Fed will help the market run up.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h4>
Prudent investors keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) due to the impact of the carry trade on stock markets across the globe including the U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks.
BOJ has been in the mode of raising interest rates.&nbsp; However, after its latest meeting, the BOJ left rates unchanged.&nbsp; This has stopped the rise of the yen.
The primary reason BOJ did not raise interest rates appears to be the potential fallout from U.S. tariffs.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Turkey</h4>
Turkey has detained the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu.&nbsp; He is the main rival to Turkish President Erdogan.&nbsp; The opposition is calling this "a coup against our next president."&nbsp; Before this development, Turkey had a lot going for it.
<ul>
<li>Turkey will benefit from increased spending in Europe.</li>
<li>Turkey will benefit from thawing relations between the U.S. and Russia.</li>
<li>Turkey has lately engaged in investor friendly policies.&nbsp; As a result, there is a lot of room for the Turkish market to run.</li>
</ul>
The detention of Erdogan's main rival has raised concerns about political upheaval.&nbsp; The Turkish lira crashed as much as 12% on the news.
A big dip in Turkey will likely be a buying opportunity. &nbsp;Turkey has been covered continuously in The Arora Reoprt&#8217;s ZYX Emerging for 18 years.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust :SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Human-Like Reasoning AI Agents And Robots Are A Big Market For Nvidia, But Nvidia Stock Has A Problem

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the dollar.

Gold and silver are trading higher. Strength may be due to tariff uncertainty, which could drive a rotation into safe-haven assets.

SBSW

Shares of gold and silver stocks are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar. Trade uncertainty may also be lifting safe-haven assets.

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar index.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-26_09h15_32-1.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">King Nvidia Earnings Ahead</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-earnings-budget-plan-nvda-mc-02262025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not about an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows NVDA stock is below the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is neither overbought nor oversold.</li>
<li>The chart shows a nicely profitable recently completed trade around position on NVDA based on Arora signals.&nbsp; The NVDA trade around position was separate and distinct from the core NVDA position that is being held for $12.55.</li>
<li>Nvidia will report earnings today after the close.&nbsp; Nvidia earnings have the potential to move the stock market in either direction.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, we will be carefully listening for future demand.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is ignoring the potential risk to the downside and buying stocks ahead of Nvidia earnings.</li>
<li>The House has passed a plan for the budget.  Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>The plan calls for $1.5T &#8211; $2T in spending cuts over a decade.</li>
<li>The plan calls for $4T &#8211; $4.5T in tax cuts.</li>
<li>The plan calls for large cuts in Medicaid.&nbsp; Medicaid is a safety net health insurance program for low income people.</li>
<li>The stage is set for a showdown with the Senate.&nbsp; Senate Republicans want larger tax cuts.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The passage of the bill is generating excitement among investors, and they are aggressively buying stocks.&nbsp; As heartless as it sounds, irrespective of your opinion, in the early trade, there is aggressive buying in the stock market for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>Higher income people will benefit more from tax cuts.&nbsp; It is the higher income people who invest in stocks.</li>
<li>Lower income people who are on Medicaid will be adversely affected, but they are much less likely to invest in stocks.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Adding to the buying is news from China.&nbsp; Please see the section below.</li>
<li>Copper prices are moving higher on Trump's plan for tariffs on copper.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">China</h4>
China is injecting $55B into its largest banks.&nbsp; The purpose is to increase lending and spur the economy.&nbsp; Foreign money is flowing into Chinese stocks.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing selling pressure.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Stock Buying Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings On Potential Tax Cuts And Large Medicaid Cuts

GOLD

OUNZ

SGOL

Gold and Silver are trading lower, possibly due to a delay in tariffs. Also, Trump-Russia talks may reduce safe-haven asset demand.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-06_07h50_21.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">10 Year In Focus</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-trump-focused-on-10-year-tlt-mc-02062025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows TLT had previously touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows yesterday TLT broke out above the top band of the support zone.  TLT took a leg up for two main reasons:
<ul>
<li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Trump wants to focus on the 10-year yield to reduce borrowing costs instead of the Fed's short term benchmark.</li>
<li>The details of the Treasury funding.  Yesterday, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In an important development, the Treasury announced&nbsp; $125B of securities, from 3 year to 30 year, to refund approximately $106B Treasuries maturing on February 15.&nbsp; So far, the stock market likes this development, and there is aggressive buying on this news.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Rallying bonds means lower yields.  Rallying bonds are also a positive for the stock market.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 213K consensus.  This data adds to the murky jobs picture.  The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.  The official jobs report may bring clarity to the murky jobs picture and the data may be market moving.</li>
<li>Arm Holdings American Depositary Shares (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) is a British company.  Its processor design is used in over 90% of smartphones, including iPhones.  In The Arora Report analysis, ARM stock is one of the bigger beneficiaries of the future AI move to the edge.  Arm is guiding $0.48 &#8211; $0.56 vs. $0.52 consensus, but whisper numbers have been much higher.  ARM stock is falling on guidance below whisper numbers. In The Arora Report analysis, Arm guidance is raising a concern that the growth of AI to the edge may be slower than the market currently expects.  However, Wall Street firms are coming to Arm's defense and raising targets on ARM stock.</li>
<li>Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>) earnings and guidance are better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  However, the stock is under pressure on slowing smartphone growth. As full disclosure, QCOM is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  As the stock market is focused on slowing smartphone growth, in The Arora Report analysis, investors should look forward as Qualcomm will be a major beneficiary of AI's move to the edge.</li>
<li>The reaction to earnings from Arm and Qualcomm demonstrates crosscurrents.  As a reader of The Arora Report, you have an advantage as The Arora Report is one of the rare resources that has a long track record of helping investors successfully navigate crosscurrents.</li>
<li>Dependence on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) has its perils.  Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWKS#NASDAQ">SWKS</a>) has been a main supplier of RF components to Apple.  SWKS stock is falling 28% on the news that Apple is going to shift some of its business to another vendor.  In The Arora Report analysis, the other vendor is likely Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>).  As full disclosure, there is a sympathy short trade on this news in Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QRVO#NASDAQ">QRVO</a>).  It is too late to short SWKS.  </li>
<li>Several food stocks have been under pressure, especially hard hit have been those impacted by rising prices of cocoa.  This morning, sentiment is lifting on these stocks as chocolate maker Hershey Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HSY#NYSE">HSY</a>) beat earnings.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) has been the best performing pharmaceutical stock due to the popularity of its weight loss drugs.  LLY beat the consensus and whisper numbers and provided a very positive update on the pipeline.   In the early trade, LLY stock is volatile in the premarket, having traded at low as $812.18 and as high as $875.  Prudent investors need to note that the wide range in a very short time seen in LLY stock this morning is becoming typical in many many stocks.  As a practical tip, in this market it is imperative to scale in and scale out.  As full disclosure, LLY is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  </li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AVGO

GOOG

QCOM

QRVO

SWKS

Trump Focused On 10-Year Yield And Not On The Fed, Slower AI Growth Fears Weigh On Arm Stock

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-01-28_08h07_13.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Largest Market Cap Loss Ever</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-largest-loss-deepseek-nvda-mc-01282025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the drop in NVDA stock stopped before it reached the mini support zone.</li>
<li>Volume shown on the chart is very heavy, indicating conviction in the pullback.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA is not oversold, indicating there is more room to the downside.</li>
<li>Yesterday, NVDA lost $589B in market cap.  This is the largest one day loss ever for any company.</li>
<li>Yesterday illustrates the importance of diversification and proper portfolio construction.  At this time, many retail investors are almost exclusively in AI stocks – such investors suffered massive losses yesterday.  The Arora Report Model Portfolios are illustrations of how to properly construct portfolios using over 50 different strategies.  </li>
<li>Wall Street is coming to Nvidia's defense. In The Arora Report analysis, further clarity is needed.  Nvidia issued a statement on DeepSeek, but the statement does not provide any clarity probably because Nvidia is in a quiet period prior to earnings.</li>
<li>Americans are willy-nilly installing DeepSeek without realizing it is opening their entire device to China.  DeepSeek is the most popular app in the Apple App Store.</li>
<li>Before the stock market opened yesterday, The Arora Report shared with you that Wall Street woke up after about a month after the prior version of DeepSeek was made available at Christmas time.  We also shared with you our skepticism about the cost of $6M for DeepSeek.</li>
<li>Upon further analysis, The Arora Report now has high conviction that the stated cost of DeepSeek is highly misleading.  This is important because it is the stated low cost figure that panicked Wall Street. </li>
<li>For the first time in 20 years, three remarkable things happened yesterday when S&amp;P 500 declined 1.5%:
<ul>
<li>The number of rising stocks far surpassed the number of declining stocks, 350 vs. 152.</li>
<li>Value stocks surged.</li>
<li>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Eql Wght ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSP#NYSE">RSP</a>) was little changed.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, instead of going into cash, investors exited AI stocks and bought value stocks.</li>
<li>Chips stocks are rising on a suggestion that Trump will place tariffs on imported chips.</li>
<li>There is also a report of Trump potentially imposing a universal tariff of at least 2.5%.</li>
<li>Those in the momo crowd who exclusively buy out of money call options on popular stocks have seen their accounts completely wiped out.  In our decades in the markets, we have seen this again and again – many in the momo crowd make a lot of money by recklessly buying options and then go on to lose their entire accounts.</li>
<li>Those in the momo crowd who still have money are aggressively buying NVDA, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Cameco Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCJ#NYSE">CCJ</a>), Oklo Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OKLO#NYSE">OKLO</a>), Nano Nuclear Energy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NNE#NASDAQ">NNE</a>), SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOFI#NASDAQ">SOFI</a>), Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>), Rigetti Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGTI#NASDAQ">RGTI</a>), Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QUBT#NASDAQ">QUBT</a>), and WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WIMI#NASDAQ">WIMI</a>).  WIMI announced it will use DeepSeek, catching the attention of the momo crowd.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, it is important to understand that irrespective of how cheap it may be, corporate America is not going to make a Chinese model like DeepSeek the backbone of their AI efforts.  </li>
<li>Looking forward, we will be careful listening to earnings calls from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) to see if they are making changes to their capital expenditure plans after DeepSeek.</li>
<li>Durable goods came weaker than expected.
<ul>
<li>Durable goods came at -2.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable goods ex-transportation came at 0.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
<li>The FOMC meeting starts today.  The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was first sold yesterday along with tech stocks.  The dip under $100K was bought.  As of this writing, bitcoin has stabilized over $100K.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Large Cap

OKLO

PLTR

QUBT

RGTI

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

SOFI

WIMI

Wall Street Comes To Nvidia's Defense After Biggest Loss Ever, Many Momos Wiped Out

General

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Is Slightly Higher, Fed Releases Meeting Minutes, Gold And Silver Rise On Macro Uncertainty

Gold and silver are trading higher amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty as investors assess president-elect Trump's tariff policies.

Press Releases

Key Metals Surge, Unlocking New Opportunities for Savvy Mining Investors

GDXJ

PALL

TSX:PTM

<img decoding="async" style="height: 382px; width: 700px;" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-23_08h48_24.png" alt="" />
本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。
<h4>投機的なセンチメント</h4>
以下の点に注目：
<ul>
<li>この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。</li>
<li>投機的なセンチメントは株式市場の主要なドライバーの一つである。
<ul>
<li>投機的なセンチメントが現在非常に高い水準にある。</li>
<li>ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシー vs 電気自動車の戦いが予想される。この戦いの結果は、投機的なセンチメントに大きな影響を与えるか、あるいは取り除くかに関わる。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>チャートによると、TSLA株はガンマ・スクイーズがかかり急騰している。ガンマ・スクイーズはウォール街の重要なメカニズムである。投資家はウォール街のメカニズムについて学ぶことで大きな利得を得ることができる。</li>
<li>チャートは、TSLA株の抵抗ゾーンとサポートゾーンを示している。</li>
<li>チャートのRSIによると、TSLA株は過剰買い気味になっている。これにより、TSLA株が上昇するのを容易にする。</li>
<li>テスラの決算発表後の戦いが株式の主要な決定要因となるだろう。本日の取引の終了後にテスラは決算を発表する。</li>
<li>イーロン・マスクは、テスラの株主の一部にヒューマノイドロボット、ロボタクシー、AIにフォーカスするように働きかけることに成功した。マスク氏の株主基盤の再構築に成功したにもかかわらず、テスラ株の大部分の株主は引き続き同社の電気自動車部門に焦点を当てている。</li>
<li>電気自動車事業は引き続き弱く、さらに弱くなる可能性が高い。</li>
<li>マスク氏は、テスラがヒューマノイドロボットを生産しており、これらは来年テスラで稼働すると語った。
<ul>
<li>テスラは2026年から他社にヒューマノイドロボットを販売することを目指している。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>テスラのロボタクシーイベントは8月から10月に延期された。ロボタクシーに関するさらなる煽りと目を見張るような予測を期待していい。</li>
<li>決算発表後、電気自動車に焦点を当てる人々と、ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシーに焦点を当てる人々との間で戦いが繰り広げられる。この戦いの結果は、TSLA株だけでなく、株式市場全体のセンチメントにも影響を及ぼすだろう。</li>
<li>重要な決算の中で、ジェネラル・モーターズ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>）、ゼネラル・エレクトリック（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>）、コカ・コーラ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>）、ロッキード・マーティン（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>）、SAP（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAP#NYSE">SAP</a>）、Spotify Technology SA（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>）が予想を上回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>ユナイテッド・パーセル・サービス（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>）とNXPセミコンダクターズ（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXPI#NASDAQ">NXPI</a> ）は予想を下回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>S&amp;P500の企業のうち、約25％が今週決算を発表している。</li>
<li>株式市場は、カマラ・ハリスが大統領指名を獲得するために必要な代議員を確保したというニュースに大きな反応を見せている。しかし多くの市場関係者は、この興奮は一時的なものだと考えている。</li>
</ul>
<h4>インド</h4>
インドは引き続き最も優れた長期投資機会の一つである。フルディスクロージャーとして、インドに焦点を当てたファンドであるFairfax India Holdings Corp（OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFXDF#OTC">FFXDF</a>）は The Arora Report の ZYX Buy Model Portfolio に含まれている。インドにフォーカスした3つのETF、WisdomTree India Earnings Fund（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>）、iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF（BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>）、VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>）が The Arora Reportの ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio に含まれている。
インドの株式にとって、中央政府の予算は常に大きなイベントとなる。この度発表された予算は、長期的には素晴らしいものだが、短期的には、キャピタルゲイン税が増えたことによって投資家が慄いている。短期キャピタルゲインには20％の税率、長期キャピタルゲインには12.5％の税率が適用される。
<h4>投資の賢者の７つの流れ</h4>
早朝の取引では、Tesla Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>）のマネーフローはプラスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、Apple Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>）、Amazon.com, Inc.（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>）、Alphabet Inc Class C（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>）、Meta Platforms Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>）、およびMicrosoft Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>）のマネーフローは中立的なものである。
早朝の取引では、NVIDIA Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）とInvesco QQQ トラスト シリーズ1（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
<h4>株式のモモ・クラウドとスマートマネー</h4>
SPYとQQQのマネーフローを知ることで、投資家は利点を得ることができる。株式、金、および原油の買いがスマートマネーによって行われたタイミングを知ることで、投資家はさらなる利点を得ることができる。金にとって最も一般的なETFは、SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）である。銀にとって最も一般的なETFは、iShares Silver Trust（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）である。原油にとって最も一般的なETFは、アメリカン・オイル・ファンド（ASCA:USO）である。
<h4>ビットコイン</h4>
ビットコインの大口投資家は、ビットコイン（暗号通貨: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）を月面まで駆け上がらせる野心的なトランプの噂に取り組んでいる。その噂とは、トランプが、ビットコインを国家的な戦略準備金にすることができるというものだ。なお、トランプは、これに先立ち、ビットコインを100％ハイプした2024年の会議（およびそのラウンドテーブルイベント）に投資家を招待している。トランプはこの会議に対して、1人当たり84.5万ドルの費用を支払うことが条件となっている。
<h4>保護バンドと今後の対応</h4>
投資家にとっては、前方を見ることが、後方を見ることよりも重要である。
良質な、非常に長期のポジションを維持することを検討してみるのも一つの方法である。個々のリスク選好に基づき、現金あるいは国債、あるいは短期の戦術的取引、または短期から中期のヘッジ取引を含む保護バンドを考慮することも重要だ。これは自己を保護するための良い方法であり、反対に利益を伸ばすことができる。
投資家は、ヘッジと現金を合算することで、自己の保護バンドを確定することができる。高い保護バンドは、年配者または保守的な投資家に適している。低い保護バンドは、若い投資家または積極的な投資家に適している。もしヘッジを行わない場合、現金の合計額は上記よりも多く、しかしそれ以上にヘッジを行った場合よりも現金の合計額は少ない。
保護バンドが0％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に楽観的であり、投資家は現金を0％保有し、100％の資産を株式に投資することを選択したことを意味する。一方で保護バンドが100％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に悲観的であり、投資家はヘッジまたはショートセリングの方法で自己を保護しようと決意したことを意味する。
新たな機会を活用するには、十分な現金を保有していなければならない。これは投資家にとって非常に重要なポイントである。ヘッジレベルを調整する際には、株式ポジション（ETF以外）の部分的なストップ数量を調整することを検討する。また、残りの数量に対して幅の広いストップを使用すること、およびハイベータ株に対してもっとスペースを与えることを検討することも重要だ。なお、ハイベータ株とは、市場よりも個

中東で再び緊張が高まっており、イスラエルの戦争内閣は国の対応を熟慮するために月曜日に開会し、<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">市場に衝撃を与えました。</a>
イスラエルがイランに対する報復策を検討しているという見出しにより、株式市場は急落し、金の価格が急騰しました。
何が起こったのか：チャンネル12は、イスラエルの内閣がイランに「明確で力強い」対応することを決定したと発表し、これはイスラエルが「このような大規模な攻撃を受けても無反応でいることは許さない」というイスラエルの信号を意味しています。
イスラエルの国防大臣ヨアブ・ガランは、イランがイスラエルに対する直接攻撃を繰り返すことを耐えかねると米国国防長官ロイド・オースティンに伝えましたが、この対応は中東全体を巻き込むような地域全体の紛争に発展することを回避します。 
国家安全保障会議報道官のジョン・カービーは、イランの攻撃を「壮大で恥ずべき失敗」と表現し、今日の「世界の多くはイスラエルとともに立っている」と強調しました。
先週日曜日、G7首脳会議は、イランのミサイル計画に対する新たな制裁を検討しており、イスラエルを支持しつつ、さらなるエスカレーションを防ぎたいと考えています。 
バランスのとれたアプローチを提唱する国務長官アントニー・ブリンケンは、「力と知恵は同じコインの異なる面でなければならない」と述べ、状況を慎重にかつ断固として処理することを示唆しました。ブリンケンはまた、地域のパートナーとの継続的な協議を確認し、外交努力を約束します。
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter">
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
米国はイスラエルを支援することを約束しています。イランによるイスラエルへの前代未聞の攻撃に続き、我々は外交的な対応を調整し、エスカレーションを防ごうとしています。 <a href="https://t.co/9gW2gC8Y5s">pic.twitter.com/9gW2gC8Y5s</a>
&mdash; Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) <a href="https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1779940420174155836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">2024年4月15日</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
一方、中国は国連で、イランの行動をイスラエルの侵略に対する正当防衛として擁護する一方で、対照的な意見を述べました。 「イランには自衛権があります。イスラエルは国際法に違反してイラン領事館を攻撃しました。イランは反応し、自国の法的権利を行使しました」と述べました。 
なぜ重要なのか：米欧の同盟国は、世界的な影響を持つような地域全体の戦争の拡大を避けるようイスラエルに何度も警告しています。 
人的被害の観点でのみならず、イランとイスラエルの間の戦争の経済的影響は、世界経済にとって極めて破壊的であると言えます。
最初のリスクの1つは、原油価格の上昇に関連するものです。イランの原油生産は現在、世界供給の約3.4mb/d（3.3％）に上昇しています。
ゴールドマン・サックスによると、現在世界の17%の原油生産が流れているホルムズ海峡の原油の流れが途絶すると、1か月で原油価格が20%上昇し、途絶が数か月間続くと、最終的には2倍になります。 
市場の反応 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）は米国東部時間3:00pm現在、1.2％下落し、2か月ぶりの最低水準でのクローズを予想しています。
先週金曜日の損失率1.8％に追随した形で、米国株中心のInvesco QQQ トラスト（NASDAQ：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）は1.6％低下しました。 
不動産セレクトセクター SPDR トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>）は2.1％ダウンし、リアルタイムで総合株指数において最大の損失を記録しました。 
仮想通貨市場は一段と悪化し、仮想通貨は大損を報告しました。 ビットコイン（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は6％下落し、62400ドルとなりました。 イーサリアム（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>）は、4.1％下落し、3024ドルとなりました。
一方、ゴールド（金）やシルバーは急激に上昇し、投資家たちはこぞって安全な資産に逃避しました。
SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）は1.5％上昇し、史上最高のクローズを記録しました。 シルバーは、2月2021年以来の最高値でのクローズを目指し、2.9％上昇しました、というのも iShares シルバー トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）が報じています。
原油は、米国の早い時間帯の損失を取り消し、西テキサス中間原油はバレル85ドルを超える急騰を見せました。米国石油基金（United States Oil Fund）（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>）は0.1％上昇しました。 
チャート：2024年4月15日におけるSLV、GLD、USO、SPY、QQQ、BTCの株価
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-292577" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
今すぐ読む: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38239994/financial-markets-on-edge-as-oil-and-gold-prices-could-soar-amid-rising-israel-iran-tensions">イスラエルとイランの緊張が高まる中、原油と金の価格が急騰する可能性があるため、金融市場は緊迫している</a>
写真：シャッターストック
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