最新ニュース iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV)

The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of silver.

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Israel War Cabinet discusses retaliatory strikes

イスラエルの戦争内閣は、イランに「明確かつ力強く」反応することを誓います。G7はテヘランに制裁を検討中：株価は下落し、ゴールドは急騰、WTIは85ドルを上回りました。

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ETRACS Silver Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 21, 2033

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Silver Star Properties REIT Inc

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Silver Tiger Metals Inc

Solvay SA

Gold surged past $3,100, setting a new intra-day high on Monday morning at $3,128 per ounce. Investors rush to safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, including President Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on imported cars and auto parts and a new round of reciprocal tariffs set to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44502030/trump-may-slap-a-20-tariff-on-europe-yet-april-still-offers-rally-hopes-for-european-stocks" rel="noreferrer noopener"> take effect on April 2</a>.
"Tariff issues will continue driving (gold) prices higher until there is some finality to the tit-for-tat campaign," Edward Meier said per Reuters.
The yellow metal gained nearly 19% in 2025, propped by geopolitical concerns and central bank demand. Over the last 15 years, foreign ownership of US treasuries has converged with gold as a percent of central bank reserves. Treasury ownership sank from 25%, while gold reserves rose from 7% to reach the 15% mark.
As gold continues to break records, major financial institutions have revised their price forecasts upward. Goldman Sachs expects it to reach $3,300 per ounce by the end of the year, up from its previous target of $3,100.
Bank of America sees the yellow metal at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44499732/bank-of-america-sees-new-gold-as-a-buy-lifts-price-target-by-50" rel="noreferrer noopener">$3,063 per ounce in 2025 </a>and $3,350 per ounce in 2026, a significant increase from earlier projections of $2,750 and $2,625, respectively. Macquarie has similarly pointed to strong central bank demand and investor inflows as key drivers behind gold's bullish trend.
Despite silver's solid performance, it has not yet exceeded the high from last October, when it traded at $34.78 per ounce. The gold-to-silver ratio, a popular measure of metal's relative performance, has widened, reflecting gold's stronger momentum.
It now takes 91 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold, suggesting <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43615367/peter-schiff-predicts-silvers-explosive-catch-up-move-as-the-gold-to-silver-ratio-crosses-901-analysts-foresee-silver-prices-to-touch-38-in-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">silver may be undervalued</a>. Historically, traders use this ratio to determine whether to favor gold or silver in their portfolios. When the ratio is high, some investors buy silver, expecting it to outperform gold in the future. Conversely, when the ratio is low, they may shift holdings into gold.
Still, pursuing this strategy doesn't require physical exchange and storage of metal. Trading the ratio is convenient through specialized ETFs that offer exposure to metals. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) provide direct exposure to gold, while iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) is a popular option for silver investors. A trader would buy the gold ETF when the ratio is at the lower historical levels and eventually swap for a stake in silver when it gets high.
More aggressive strategies might employ leveraged ETFs like ProShares Ultra Gold (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UGL#NYSE">UGL</a>) and ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGQ#NYSE">AGQ</a>), which correspond to double the daily performance of the underlying benchmark.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44544885/record-high-gold-prices-start-to-scare-some-investors-as-inflation-anchor-crumbles" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">‘My Spidey Tingles' — Gold's Surge Has Some Investors On Edge</a></li>
</ul>
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Gold Surges Past $3,100 As Tariff Uncertainty Sets Silver Ratio Trade

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-03-19_08h15_02.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Dot Plot And Balance Sheet</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-agents-robots-nvidia-turkey-president-nvda-mc-03192025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after a much anticipated keynote speech by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, NVDA stock pulled back to the top band of the mini support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows aggressive buying ahead of Huang's speech in anticipation of NVDA stock going higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the momo crowd's expectations were not met.&nbsp; Those in the momo crowd who primarily buy call options are now sitting on large losses.</li>
<li>Huang's speech was excellent.&nbsp; Here are the key points from The Arora Report's analysis:
<ul>
<li>Nvidia is doing excellent as a company.&nbsp; There is a disconnect between NVDA stock price and Nvidia as a company.</li>
<li>The biggest market of all will be the market for robots.&nbsp; Nvidia is well positioned to provide AI intelligence and systems for robots.</li>
<li>Human-like AI agents are at the cusp of widespread adoption.&nbsp; These agents are based on reasoning models.&nbsp; Reasoning models need significantly more compute than regular models.&nbsp; AI agents will drive demand for Nvidia's chips.</li>
<li>Nvidia is moving into autonomous driving.&nbsp; Nvidia announced a deal with General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>).</li>
<li>Nvidia is widening its lead over competitors.</li>
<li>Nvidia is strengthening its moat.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Here is the question everyone is asking: In spite of so many positives, why did NVDA stock not rocket up?  </li>
<li>We have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44380831/the-opposite-of-what-wall-street-told-you-about-stocks-has-happened-key-nvidia-event-ahead">previously shared</a> with readers that the problem NVDA stock has is over-ownership.</li>
<li>Nvidia illustrates the beauty of the highly refined, multilayer methodology followed by members of The Arora Report.
<ul>
<li>The original core position in NVDA stock is long from $12.55 and most of the position is still being held.&nbsp; This illustrates the power of the ZYX Change Method to buy a stock when it is in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ppp-long-trade-ppp">stage one</a>.</li>
<li>The fact that most of the position is still being held, resulting in major gains, shows the foresight that comes from decades of experience.</li>
<li>Along the way, there have been successful, shorter term, trade around positions.</li>
<li>The core position is appropriately hedged to preserve the gains.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.  The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged.  We will be carefully analyzing the following:
<ul>
<li>The dot plot</li>
<li>The Fed's balance sheet, especially regarding QT</li>
<li>How Powell straddles the uncertainty caused by tariffs</li>
<li>The Fed's take on rising consumer inflation expectations.&nbsp; Rising consumer inflation expectations are the last thing the Fed wants to see.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The momo crowd's historical pattern is to buy ahead of the Fed meeting on hopium.&nbsp; This morning is no different.&nbsp; The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade hoping the Fed will help the market run up.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h4>
Prudent investors keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) due to the impact of the carry trade on stock markets across the globe including the U.S. stock market, particularly tech stocks.
BOJ has been in the mode of raising interest rates.&nbsp; However, after its latest meeting, the BOJ left rates unchanged.&nbsp; This has stopped the rise of the yen.
The primary reason BOJ did not raise interest rates appears to be the potential fallout from U.S. tariffs.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Turkey</h4>
Turkey has detained the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Imamoglu.&nbsp; He is the main rival to Turkish President Erdogan.&nbsp; The opposition is calling this "a coup against our next president."&nbsp; Before this development, Turkey had a lot going for it.
<ul>
<li>Turkey will benefit from increased spending in Europe.</li>
<li>Turkey will benefit from thawing relations between the U.S. and Russia.</li>
<li>Turkey has lately engaged in investor friendly policies.&nbsp; As a result, there is a lot of room for the Turkish market to run.</li>
</ul>
The detention of Erdogan's main rival has raised concerns about political upheaval.&nbsp; The Turkish lira crashed as much as 12% on the news.
A big dip in Turkey will likely be a buying opportunity. &nbsp;Turkey has been covered continuously in The Arora Reoprt&#8217;s ZYX Emerging for 18 years.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust :SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Equities

Market Summary

Opinion

Human-Like Reasoning AI Agents And Robots Are A Big Market For Nvidia, But Nvidia Stock Has A Problem

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the dollar.

Gold and silver are trading higher. Strength may be due to tariff uncertainty, which could drive a rotation into safe-haven assets.

SBSW

Shares of gold and silver stocks are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar. Trade uncertainty may also be lifting safe-haven assets.

Gold and silver are trading higher amid a drop in the US dollar index.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-26_09h15_32-1.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">King Nvidia Earnings Ahead</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-earnings-budget-plan-nvda-mc-02262025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not about an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows NVDA stock is below the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is neither overbought nor oversold.</li>
<li>The chart shows a nicely profitable recently completed trade around position on NVDA based on Arora signals.&nbsp; The NVDA trade around position was separate and distinct from the core NVDA position that is being held for $12.55.</li>
<li>Nvidia will report earnings today after the close.&nbsp; Nvidia earnings have the potential to move the stock market in either direction.&nbsp; At The Arora Report, we will be carefully listening for future demand.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is ignoring the potential risk to the downside and buying stocks ahead of Nvidia earnings.</li>
<li>The House has passed a plan for the budget.  Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>The plan calls for $1.5T &#8211; $2T in spending cuts over a decade.</li>
<li>The plan calls for $4T &#8211; $4.5T in tax cuts.</li>
<li>The plan calls for large cuts in Medicaid.&nbsp; Medicaid is a safety net health insurance program for low income people.</li>
<li>The stage is set for a showdown with the Senate.&nbsp; Senate Republicans want larger tax cuts.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The passage of the bill is generating excitement among investors, and they are aggressively buying stocks.&nbsp; As heartless as it sounds, irrespective of your opinion, in the early trade, there is aggressive buying in the stock market for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>Higher income people will benefit more from tax cuts.&nbsp; It is the higher income people who invest in stocks.</li>
<li>Lower income people who are on Medicaid will be adversely affected, but they are much less likely to invest in stocks.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Adding to the buying is news from China.&nbsp; Please see the section below.</li>
<li>Copper prices are moving higher on Trump's plan for tariffs on copper.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">China</h4>
China is injecting $55B into its largest banks.&nbsp; The purpose is to increase lending and spur the economy.&nbsp; Foreign money is flowing into Chinese stocks.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing selling pressure.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Stock Buying Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings On Potential Tax Cuts And Large Medicaid Cuts

GOLD

OUNZ

SGOL

Gold and Silver are trading lower, possibly due to a delay in tariffs. Also, Trump-Russia talks may reduce safe-haven asset demand.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2025-02-06_07h50_21.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">10 Year In Focus</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-trump-focused-on-10-year-tlt-mc-02062025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows TLT had previously touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows yesterday TLT broke out above the top band of the support zone.  TLT took a leg up for two main reasons:
<ul>
<li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Trump wants to focus on the 10-year yield to reduce borrowing costs instead of the Fed's short term benchmark.</li>
<li>The details of the Treasury funding.  Yesterday, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In an important development, the Treasury announced&nbsp; $125B of securities, from 3 year to 30 year, to refund approximately $106B Treasuries maturing on February 15.&nbsp; So far, the stock market likes this development, and there is aggressive buying on this news.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Rallying bonds means lower yields.  Rallying bonds are also a positive for the stock market.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 213K consensus.  This data adds to the murky jobs picture.  The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.  The official jobs report may bring clarity to the murky jobs picture and the data may be market moving.</li>
<li>Arm Holdings American Depositary Shares (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>) is a British company.  Its processor design is used in over 90% of smartphones, including iPhones.  In The Arora Report analysis, ARM stock is one of the bigger beneficiaries of the future AI move to the edge.  Arm is guiding $0.48 &#8211; $0.56 vs. $0.52 consensus, but whisper numbers have been much higher.  ARM stock is falling on guidance below whisper numbers. In The Arora Report analysis, Arm guidance is raising a concern that the growth of AI to the edge may be slower than the market currently expects.  However, Wall Street firms are coming to Arm's defense and raising targets on ARM stock.</li>
<li>Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>) earnings and guidance are better than the consensus and whisper numbers.  However, the stock is under pressure on slowing smartphone growth. As full disclosure, QCOM is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  As the stock market is focused on slowing smartphone growth, in The Arora Report analysis, investors should look forward as Qualcomm will be a major beneficiary of AI's move to the edge.</li>
<li>The reaction to earnings from Arm and Qualcomm demonstrates crosscurrents.  As a reader of The Arora Report, you have an advantage as The Arora Report is one of the rare resources that has a long track record of helping investors successfully navigate crosscurrents.</li>
<li>Dependence on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) has its perils.  Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWKS#NASDAQ">SWKS</a>) has been a main supplier of RF components to Apple.  SWKS stock is falling 28% on the news that Apple is going to shift some of its business to another vendor.  In The Arora Report analysis, the other vendor is likely Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>).  As full disclosure, there is a sympathy short trade on this news in Qorvo Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QRVO#NASDAQ">QRVO</a>).  It is too late to short SWKS.  </li>
<li>Several food stocks have been under pressure, especially hard hit have been those impacted by rising prices of cocoa.  This morning, sentiment is lifting on these stocks as chocolate maker Hershey Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HSY#NYSE">HSY</a>) beat earnings.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) has been the best performing pharmaceutical stock due to the popularity of its weight loss drugs.  LLY beat the consensus and whisper numbers and provided a very positive update on the pipeline.   In the early trade, LLY stock is volatile in the premarket, having traded at low as $812.18 and as high as $875.  Prudent investors need to note that the wide range in a very short time seen in LLY stock this morning is becoming typical in many many stocks.  As a practical tip, in this market it is imperative to scale in and scale out.  As full disclosure, LLY is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  </li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

AVGO

GOOG

QCOM

QRVO

SWKS

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Trump Focused On 10-Year Yield And Not On The Fed, Slower AI Growth Fears Weigh On Arm Stock

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-01-28_08h07_13.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Largest Market Cap Loss Ever</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-largest-loss-deepseek-nvda-mc-01282025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the drop in NVDA stock stopped before it reached the mini support zone.</li>
<li>Volume shown on the chart is very heavy, indicating conviction in the pullback.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA is not oversold, indicating there is more room to the downside.</li>
<li>Yesterday, NVDA lost $589B in market cap.  This is the largest one day loss ever for any company.</li>
<li>Yesterday illustrates the importance of diversification and proper portfolio construction.  At this time, many retail investors are almost exclusively in AI stocks – such investors suffered massive losses yesterday.  The Arora Report Model Portfolios are illustrations of how to properly construct portfolios using over 50 different strategies.  </li>
<li>Wall Street is coming to Nvidia's defense. In The Arora Report analysis, further clarity is needed.  Nvidia issued a statement on DeepSeek, but the statement does not provide any clarity probably because Nvidia is in a quiet period prior to earnings.</li>
<li>Americans are willy-nilly installing DeepSeek without realizing it is opening their entire device to China.  DeepSeek is the most popular app in the Apple App Store.</li>
<li>Before the stock market opened yesterday, The Arora Report shared with you that Wall Street woke up after about a month after the prior version of DeepSeek was made available at Christmas time.  We also shared with you our skepticism about the cost of $6M for DeepSeek.</li>
<li>Upon further analysis, The Arora Report now has high conviction that the stated cost of DeepSeek is highly misleading.  This is important because it is the stated low cost figure that panicked Wall Street. </li>
<li>For the first time in 20 years, three remarkable things happened yesterday when S&amp;P 500 declined 1.5%:
<ul>
<li>The number of rising stocks far surpassed the number of declining stocks, 350 vs. 152.</li>
<li>Value stocks surged.</li>
<li>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Eql Wght ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSP#NYSE">RSP</a>) was little changed.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, instead of going into cash, investors exited AI stocks and bought value stocks.</li>
<li>Chips stocks are rising on a suggestion that Trump will place tariffs on imported chips.</li>
<li>There is also a report of Trump potentially imposing a universal tariff of at least 2.5%.</li>
<li>Those in the momo crowd who exclusively buy out of money call options on popular stocks have seen their accounts completely wiped out.  In our decades in the markets, we have seen this again and again – many in the momo crowd make a lot of money by recklessly buying options and then go on to lose their entire accounts.</li>
<li>Those in the momo crowd who still have money are aggressively buying NVDA, Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Cameco Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCJ#NYSE">CCJ</a>), Oklo Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OKLO#NYSE">OKLO</a>), Nano Nuclear Energy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NNE#NASDAQ">NNE</a>), SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOFI#NASDAQ">SOFI</a>), Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>), Rigetti Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGTI#NASDAQ">RGTI</a>), Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QUBT#NASDAQ">QUBT</a>), and WiMi Hologram Cloud Inc &#8211; ADR (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WIMI#NASDAQ">WIMI</a>).  WIMI announced it will use DeepSeek, catching the attention of the momo crowd.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, it is important to understand that irrespective of how cheap it may be, corporate America is not going to make a Chinese model like DeepSeek the backbone of their AI efforts.  </li>
<li>Looking forward, we will be careful listening to earnings calls from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) to see if they are making changes to their capital expenditure plans after DeepSeek.</li>
<li>Durable goods came weaker than expected.
<ul>
<li>Durable goods came at -2.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable goods ex-transportation came at 0.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
<li>The FOMC meeting starts today.  The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was first sold yesterday along with tech stocks.  The dip under $100K was bought.  As of this writing, bitcoin has stabilized over $100K.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Large Cap

OKLO

PLTR

QUBT

RGTI

Rydex ETF Trust Rydex S&P Equal Weight ETF

SOFI

WIMI

Wall Street Comes To Nvidia's Defense After Biggest Loss Ever, Many Momos Wiped Out

Macro Economic Events

General

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Is Slightly Higher, Fed Releases Meeting Minutes, Gold And Silver Rise On Macro Uncertainty

Gold and silver are trading higher amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty as investors assess president-elect Trump's tariff policies.

Emerging Market ETFs

Benzinga Market Summary: NVIDIA Falls As Market Digests CES Announcements, S&P Slides As Yields Gain Following Economic Data, Gold And Silver Rise, Adobe Analytics Data Show Record Holiday Sales

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-23_08h02_56.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Profiting From Stock Market Hopium</h4>
An enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows Friday was an outside day.&nbsp; It is a bullish technical signal.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market hit the breakout line before bouncing.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI is close to oversold.</li>
<li>The set up shown on the chart is a good setup for a Santa Claus rally.</li>
<li>The chart shows the higher volume on Friday.&nbsp; This indicates conviction.</li>
<li>In the early trade, initially there was strong buying.&nbsp; As of this writing in the premarket, selling is coming in.</li>
<li>Momo gurus have a new narrative – after lower PCE data, the Fed will continue cutting rates.&nbsp; Momo gurus are urging their followers to ignore everything the FOMC said and everything Powell said in his press conference.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, in spite of bullish technical signals and bullish seasonality, investors should not ignore negative macro signals that arose from the FOMC decision and many investors in the stock market finally coming to the realization that the data does not support aggressive rate cuts.</li>
<li>Right now, the stock market is running up on hopium.&nbsp; Once Trump is inaugurated, the stock market will have to meet reality.</li>
<li>The Arora Report call is to consider taking partial profits on tactical positions between Christmas and New Years.&nbsp; Investors should be prepared to take more profits on tactical positions between New Year and Trump's inauguration.&nbsp; Open new tactical positions on dips and on new signals.</li>
<li>The Arora Report call is to continue to hold good strategic positions.</li>
<li>There is no change in the protection band.&nbsp; Please see details in the "Protection Band And What To Do Now" section below.&nbsp; For investors who are underinvested relative to the protection band and are aggressive, consider scaling in on strategic positions when they fall in the buy zones.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the ideal time to buy will be if there is a 6% &#8211; 10% correction.</li>
<li>Since Trump's election, across all services from The Arora Report, there have been 84 profit taking signals.&nbsp; This illustrates the power of combining tactical positions with taking partial profits on some strategic positions. Please see the Trade Management Guidelines for how to properly take partial profits.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C, Meta Platforms Inc, NVIDIA Corp, and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corp and Apple Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Bullish Technical Signal, Santa Claus Rally, Taking Advantage Of Hopium

As markets brace for the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, scheduled at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday, Goldman Sachs highlighted 20 exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that have historically shown outsized <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">moves around Fed decision days</a>.
While a 25-basis-point rate cut to a target range of 4.25%-4.50% is widely anticipated, the market's focus is on the Fed's forward guidance, particularly the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the updated &#8220;dot plot.&#8221;
Following December's expected cut, Goldman Sachs projects a more measured pace of easing next year, forecasting rate cuts in March, June, and September, with the terminal rate seen at 3.50%-3.75%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42554114/all-eyes-on-december-fed-meeting-as-traders-await-interest-rate-projections">All Eyes On December Fed Meeting As Traders Await Interest Rate Projections</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Dynamics Around Fed Days</h3>
U.S. equity markets have displayed strong short-term gains during Fed meeting weeks in 2024. 
Investors employing a simple strategy of buying the S&amp;P 500 index at market close before a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and selling at close the following day have captured median returns of 1.1% across the past seven meetings.
Yet those extending the trade horizon to 15 sessions post-Fed meeting have enjoyed significantly larger average gains of 3.29%, more than double the short-term returns. Notably, every Fed meeting this year has resulted in positive 15-day returns.
"We observe that U.S. banking ETFs, such as SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), have seen unusually large moves on FOMC days since 2022" Goldman analysts wrote in a recent note.
For bond-focused investors, the report highlights consistent post-meeting gains in high-yield and investment-grade ETFs like iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HYG#NYSE">HYG</a>) and iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LQD#NYSE">LQD</a>).
Meanwhile, energy-focused ETFs, such as the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), have seen negative reactions. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs Showing Heightened Fed-Day Moves</h3>
Here's Goldman Sachs' list of 20 ETFs with the largest absolute moves – which include both positive and negative swing – on FOMC days:
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name</th>
<th>Focus</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move on FOMC since 2022</th>
<th>Average Absolute Move (Last 3 FOMC events)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF </td>
<td>Regional Banking</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>)</td>
<td>Semiconductor</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>)</td>
<td>US Large Banks</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XBI#NYSE">XBI</a>)</td>
<td>Biotech</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>United States Oil Fund </td>
<td>Oil</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>)</td>
<td>Technology</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>)</td>
<td>Silver</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>)</td>
<td>Discretionary</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)</td>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>)</td>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>)</td>
<td>Financial</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>)</td>
<td>Gold</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMB#NASDAQ">EMB</a>)</td>
<td>EM Bond</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>HY Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF </td>
<td>IG Corp Bond</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>7-10 Year Treasury</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TIP#NYSE">TIP</a>)</td>
<td>TIPS Bond</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Check Out: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42539116/fed-meetings-made-stock-traders-richer-in-2024-could-wednesday-bring-last-big-rally">Fed Meetings Made Stock Traders Richer In 2024: Could Wednesday Bring Last Big Rally?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

New ETFs

Currency ETFs

Previews

Econ #s

Federal Reserve

iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund

iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

20 ETFs Primed For Unusually Big Swings On Fed Meeting Days

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-17_07h56_07.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Extreme Positive Sentiment</h4>
An enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock has gone parabolic.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent Arora buy signal.&nbsp; There is a 66.8% gain from the Arora buy signal in less than six weeks.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks tend to be susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>Yesterday's TSLA stock was ripping, in part, on rumors that Trump will change the law so that Tesla does not have to report car crashes to regulators.&nbsp; Regulators use this data to assess the safety of vehicles. To date, Tesla has had to report over 1500 crashes.</li>
<li>Investors are ignoring the news that the computers in Tesla's new cars are failing.&nbsp; TSLA stock should have been down on the news of the new car computers failing.&nbsp; Instead, TSLA stock ran higher.&nbsp; This is a prime example of what happens when sentiment is at the extreme positive.</li>
<li>TSLA stock is also moving higher in part because there is a new constituent of buyers for TSLA stock. These buyers are the ones who hate electric vehicles (EVs), are big Trump supporters, and are now buying TSLA stock because they see Tesla CEO Elon Musk with Trump.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, sales of EVs are going to fall.&nbsp; This is a risk to TSLA stock.&nbsp; However, bullish Tesla analysts already have a narrative – EVs no longer matter to Tesla because Tesla has Trump's support to change laws to benefit Tesla.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the future of Tesla is about autonomy, robotaxis, and robots; however, EVs are still very important to Tesla – robotaxis and autonomy are built on EVs.</li>
<li>Astute investors recognize that extreme positive sentiment is a sell signal.&nbsp; Profit taking by such investors in the early trade is overwhelming buying by the momo crowd.&nbsp; As we have written before, extreme positive sentiment is not a precise timing signal.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; The data is mixed; consumers are still aggressively buying cars but are pulling back on other purchases.&nbsp; Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>FOMC is starting its meeting today.&nbsp; The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C and Tesla.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Inc.,   Microsoft Corp, and NVIDIA Corp.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin continues to move higher as the rumor takes hold that Trump will announce the bitcoin reserve on day one.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Computers In New Tesla Cars Failing But Tesla Stock Rockets On Trump's Support

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1200" height="711" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7.png" alt="" class="wp-image-4139" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7.png 1200w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-300x178.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-1024x607.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/16185231/image-7-768x455.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Small Language Model</h4>
An enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows MSFT stock has climbed in December so far.</li>
<li>The chart shows support and resistance zones for MSFT.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows MSFT stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>The Arora Report previously shared with readers a major milestone in AI progress – human-like reasoning capabilities using chain link thinking in Model 4o from OpenAI.</li>
<li>ChatGPT-4o is a large language model.</li>
<li>In further AI progress, Microsoft has introduced Phi-4.&nbsp; Phi-4 is a small language model that outperforms GPT-4o in certain mathematical reasoning.&nbsp; Phi-4 is only a fraction of the size of GPT-4o.&nbsp; It appears that Phi-4 can do better in solving certain math problems compared to its teacher model GPT-4o.&nbsp; Also of note is that Microsoft trained Phi-4 mostly on synthetic data.</li>
<li>The foregoing is important for investors as investors need to get ahead of the curve.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, Phi-4 challenges the present belief that bigger is better.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, small language models such as Phi-4 have a very bright future.&nbsp; There is a fortune to be made in AI between now and 2030.&nbsp; However, it will not be in a straight line.&nbsp; At times, it will be treacherous.</li>
<li>There is excitement in the stock market this morning as it was announced Friday after the close that AI software company Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>) and big bitcoin holder MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) are being added to the Nasdaq 100.</li>
<li>The Arora Report has previously written that one of the things Trump can do to reduce inflation from his policies is to attract foreign investment to the U.S.&nbsp; In the first sign of success for Trump, Japan's SoftBank Group Corp &#8211; ADR (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SFTBY#OTC">SFTBY</a>) CEO Masayoshi Son will announce at Mar-a-Largo a $100B investment in the U.S. over the next four years.</li>
<li>There is also buying in the early trade as the market believes it is a certainty that the Fed will cut interest rates this week in spite of the data not supporting such a rate cut.</li>
<li>Markets in the U.S. are not being impacted by weakness in Europe and Asia as there was powerful pumping of stocks in the media over the weekend.&nbsp; Retail investors tend to be influenced by the weekend pump and buy on Monday morning.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">France</h4>
Moody's has cut France's credit rating.&nbsp; French stocks and bonds are falling.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">China</h4>
Markets all across the globe are being negatively impacted by weak retail sales data in China.
Retail sales in China came at 3.0% year-over-year vs 4.8% consensus.
Concern is building that the Chinese consumer is not spending in spite of stimulus measures by the government.
In The Arora Report analysis, investors should note the sharp contrast between U.S. consumers and Chinese consumers at this time.&nbsp; U.S. consumers are on a buying binge.&nbsp; Chinese consumers are holding back and are focused on savings.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc Class C , Meta Platforms Inc , NVIDIA Corp , and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Over the weekend, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) ran over $106,000 on a rumor that Trump will announce the bitcoin reserve on day 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

MSTR

SFTBY

AI Progress From Microsoft – Phi-4 Outperforms Human-like reasoner AI Model GPT-4o, Bitcoin Rumor

COST

Benzinga Market Summary: Indexes Close Lower On Worse-Than-Expected PPI Data, Broadcom And Costco To Report After The Close, Gold And Silver Drop

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-12-12_07h55_05.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Inflation</h4>
An enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows the run up in TSLA stock.</li>
<li>The chart shows the Arora buy signal after the election.&nbsp; As of this writing, there is 50% gain in about five weeks from the Arora buy signal in TSLA.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows TSLA stock is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.</li>
<li>The chart shows the nearest support zone.</li>
<li>TSLA stock has added $515B in value since Trump's election.&nbsp; The valuation of Tesla and SpaceX have been rising on the belief that Musk's close association with Trump will help his businesses. &nbsp; The rally in TSLA stock, along with the rising valuation of SpaceX, has made Elon Musk the first man ever to have a net worth of $400B.</li>
<li>The move yesterday in TSLA stock was initially triggered by General Motors Co&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) decision to stop development of robotaxis.&nbsp; The buying in TSLA stock on the GM news caused TSLA to breakout above the prior high.&nbsp; This brought in technically oriented buyers who buy the breakouts.&nbsp; The prior high was $414.49 on November 4, 2021.</li>
<li>After yesterday's sticky Consumer Price Index data that was not worse than expected, the market was certain the Fed will cut interest rates, so investors aggressively bought big tech stocks.&nbsp; Lower interest rates are good for big tech.</li>
<li>Producer Price Index (PPI) data came hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reaction to PPI data is slight selling in stocks, bonds, and gold.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed is likely to ignore the hotter producer inflation data and cut interest rates next week.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 242K vs. 220K consensus. &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed can use this data as an excuse to cut interest rates given the Fed's dual mandate.&nbsp;</li>
<li>To understand extreme positive sentiment right now, all a prudent investor needs to do is look at the valuation of Fartcoin (CRYPTO: FARTCOIN).&nbsp; Fartcoin is now worth $500M.&nbsp; What makes Fartcoin so valuable? It produces a digital fart sound on each transaction.</li>
<li>The positive sentiment is being enhanced this morning as President-elect Trump is going to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Switzerland</h4>
The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 50 bps, which was more than expected.&nbsp; This is the largest cut in nearly a decade.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h4>
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected.
Rate cuts in Europe influence the Fed to also cut interest rates.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is above $100,000.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Hot Inflation Data But Fed Likely To Ignore It, Musk Becomes First $400 Billion Man

Gold and silver are trading higher. Middle East uncertainty may be lifting sentiment for safe-haven assets such as precious metals.

Press Releases

Key Metals Surge, Unlocking New Opportunities for Savvy Mining Investors

GDXJ

PALL

TSX:PTM

<img decoding="async" style="height: 382px; width: 700px;" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-23_08h48_24.png" alt="" />
本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。
<h4>投機的なセンチメント</h4>
以下の点に注目：
<ul>
<li>この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。</li>
<li>投機的なセンチメントは株式市場の主要なドライバーの一つである。
<ul>
<li>投機的なセンチメントが現在非常に高い水準にある。</li>
<li>ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシー vs 電気自動車の戦いが予想される。この戦いの結果は、投機的なセンチメントに大きな影響を与えるか、あるいは取り除くかに関わる。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>チャートによると、TSLA株はガンマ・スクイーズがかかり急騰している。ガンマ・スクイーズはウォール街の重要なメカニズムである。投資家はウォール街のメカニズムについて学ぶことで大きな利得を得ることができる。</li>
<li>チャートは、TSLA株の抵抗ゾーンとサポートゾーンを示している。</li>
<li>チャートのRSIによると、TSLA株は過剰買い気味になっている。これにより、TSLA株が上昇するのを容易にする。</li>
<li>テスラの決算発表後の戦いが株式の主要な決定要因となるだろう。本日の取引の終了後にテスラは決算を発表する。</li>
<li>イーロン・マスクは、テスラの株主の一部にヒューマノイドロボット、ロボタクシー、AIにフォーカスするように働きかけることに成功した。マスク氏の株主基盤の再構築に成功したにもかかわらず、テスラ株の大部分の株主は引き続き同社の電気自動車部門に焦点を当てている。</li>
<li>電気自動車事業は引き続き弱く、さらに弱くなる可能性が高い。</li>
<li>マスク氏は、テスラがヒューマノイドロボットを生産しており、これらは来年テスラで稼働すると語った。
<ul>
<li>テスラは2026年から他社にヒューマノイドロボットを販売することを目指している。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>テスラのロボタクシーイベントは8月から10月に延期された。ロボタクシーに関するさらなる煽りと目を見張るような予測を期待していい。</li>
<li>決算発表後、電気自動車に焦点を当てる人々と、ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシーに焦点を当てる人々との間で戦いが繰り広げられる。この戦いの結果は、TSLA株だけでなく、株式市場全体のセンチメントにも影響を及ぼすだろう。</li>
<li>重要な決算の中で、ジェネラル・モーターズ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>）、ゼネラル・エレクトリック（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>）、コカ・コーラ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>）、ロッキード・マーティン（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>）、SAP（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAP#NYSE">SAP</a>）、Spotify Technology SA（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>）が予想を上回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>ユナイテッド・パーセル・サービス（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>）とNXPセミコンダクターズ（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXPI#NASDAQ">NXPI</a> ）は予想を下回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>S&amp;P500の企業のうち、約25％が今週決算を発表している。</li>
<li>株式市場は、カマラ・ハリスが大統領指名を獲得するために必要な代議員を確保したというニュースに大きな反応を見せている。しかし多くの市場関係者は、この興奮は一時的なものだと考えている。</li>
</ul>
<h4>インド</h4>
インドは引き続き最も優れた長期投資機会の一つである。フルディスクロージャーとして、インドに焦点を当てたファンドであるFairfax India Holdings Corp（OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFXDF#OTC">FFXDF</a>）は The Arora Report の ZYX Buy Model Portfolio に含まれている。インドにフォーカスした3つのETF、WisdomTree India Earnings Fund（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>）、iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF（BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>）、VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>）が The Arora Reportの ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio に含まれている。
インドの株式にとって、中央政府の予算は常に大きなイベントとなる。この度発表された予算は、長期的には素晴らしいものだが、短期的には、キャピタルゲイン税が増えたことによって投資家が慄いている。短期キャピタルゲインには20％の税率、長期キャピタルゲインには12.5％の税率が適用される。
<h4>投資の賢者の７つの流れ</h4>
早朝の取引では、Tesla Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>）のマネーフローはプラスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、Apple Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>）、Amazon.com, Inc.（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>）、Alphabet Inc Class C（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>）、Meta Platforms Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>）、およびMicrosoft Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>）のマネーフローは中立的なものである。
早朝の取引では、NVIDIA Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）とInvesco QQQ トラスト シリーズ1（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
<h4>株式のモモ・クラウドとスマートマネー</h4>
SPYとQQQのマネーフローを知ることで、投資家は利点を得ることができる。株式、金、および原油の買いがスマートマネーによって行われたタイミングを知ることで、投資家はさらなる利点を得ることができる。金にとって最も一般的なETFは、SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）である。銀にとって最も一般的なETFは、iShares Silver Trust（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）である。原油にとって最も一般的なETFは、アメリカン・オイル・ファンド（ASCA:USO）である。
<h4>ビットコイン</h4>
ビットコインの大口投資家は、ビットコイン（暗号通貨: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）を月面まで駆け上がらせる野心的なトランプの噂に取り組んでいる。その噂とは、トランプが、ビットコインを国家的な戦略準備金にすることができるというものだ。なお、トランプは、これに先立ち、ビットコインを100％ハイプした2024年の会議（およびそのラウンドテーブルイベント）に投資家を招待している。トランプはこの会議に対して、1人当たり84.5万ドルの費用を支払うことが条件となっている。
<h4>保護バンドと今後の対応</h4>
投資家にとっては、前方を見ることが、後方を見ることよりも重要である。
良質な、非常に長期のポジションを維持することを検討してみるのも一つの方法である。個々のリスク選好に基づき、現金あるいは国債、あるいは短期の戦術的取引、または短期から中期のヘッジ取引を含む保護バンドを考慮することも重要だ。これは自己を保護するための良い方法であり、反対に利益を伸ばすことができる。
投資家は、ヘッジと現金を合算することで、自己の保護バンドを確定することができる。高い保護バンドは、年配者または保守的な投資家に適している。低い保護バンドは、若い投資家または積極的な投資家に適している。もしヘッジを行わない場合、現金の合計額は上記よりも多く、しかしそれ以上にヘッジを行った場合よりも現金の合計額は少ない。
保護バンドが0％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に楽観的であり、投資家は現金を0％保有し、100％の資産を株式に投資することを選択したことを意味する。一方で保護バンドが100％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に悲観的であり、投資家はヘッジまたはショートセリングの方法で自己を保護しようと決意したことを意味する。
新たな機会を活用するには、十分な現金を保有していなければならない。これは投資家にとって非常に重要なポイントである。ヘッジレベルを調整する際には、株式ポジション（ETF以外）の部分的なストップ数量を調整することを検討する。また、残りの数量に対して幅の広いストップを使用すること、およびハイベータ株に対してもっとスペースを与えることを検討することも重要だ。なお、ハイベータ株とは、市場よりも個

中東で再び緊張が高まっており、イスラエルの戦争内閣は国の対応を熟慮するために月曜日に開会し、<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">市場に衝撃を与えました。</a>
イスラエルがイランに対する報復策を検討しているという見出しにより、株式市場は急落し、金の価格が急騰しました。
何が起こったのか：チャンネル12は、イスラエルの内閣がイランに「明確で力強い」対応することを決定したと発表し、これはイスラエルが「このような大規模な攻撃を受けても無反応でいることは許さない」というイスラエルの信号を意味しています。
イスラエルの国防大臣ヨアブ・ガランは、イランがイスラエルに対する直接攻撃を繰り返すことを耐えかねると米国国防長官ロイド・オースティンに伝えましたが、この対応は中東全体を巻き込むような地域全体の紛争に発展することを回避します。 
国家安全保障会議報道官のジョン・カービーは、イランの攻撃を「壮大で恥ずべき失敗」と表現し、今日の「世界の多くはイスラエルとともに立っている」と強調しました。
先週日曜日、G7首脳会議は、イランのミサイル計画に対する新たな制裁を検討しており、イスラエルを支持しつつ、さらなるエスカレーションを防ぎたいと考えています。 
バランスのとれたアプローチを提唱する国務長官アントニー・ブリンケンは、「力と知恵は同じコインの異なる面でなければならない」と述べ、状況を慎重にかつ断固として処理することを示唆しました。ブリンケンはまた、地域のパートナーとの継続的な協議を確認し、外交努力を約束します。
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter">
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">
米国はイスラエルを支援することを約束しています。イランによるイスラエルへの前代未聞の攻撃に続き、我々は外交的な対応を調整し、エスカレーションを防ごうとしています。 <a href="https://t.co/9gW2gC8Y5s">pic.twitter.com/9gW2gC8Y5s</a>
&mdash; Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) <a href="https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1779940420174155836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">2024年4月15日</a></blockquote>
</div>
</figure>
一方、中国は国連で、イランの行動をイスラエルの侵略に対する正当防衛として擁護する一方で、対照的な意見を述べました。 「イランには自衛権があります。イスラエルは国際法に違反してイラン領事館を攻撃しました。イランは反応し、自国の法的権利を行使しました」と述べました。 
なぜ重要なのか：米欧の同盟国は、世界的な影響を持つような地域全体の戦争の拡大を避けるようイスラエルに何度も警告しています。 
人的被害の観点でのみならず、イランとイスラエルの間の戦争の経済的影響は、世界経済にとって極めて破壊的であると言えます。
最初のリスクの1つは、原油価格の上昇に関連するものです。イランの原油生産は現在、世界供給の約3.4mb/d（3.3％）に上昇しています。
ゴールドマン・サックスによると、現在世界の17%の原油生産が流れているホルムズ海峡の原油の流れが途絶すると、1か月で原油価格が20%上昇し、途絶が数か月間続くと、最終的には2倍になります。 
市場の反応 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）は米国東部時間3:00pm現在、1.2％下落し、2か月ぶりの最低水準でのクローズを予想しています。
先週金曜日の損失率1.8％に追随した形で、米国株中心のInvesco QQQ トラスト（NASDAQ：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）は1.6％低下しました。 
不動産セレクトセクター SPDR トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>）は2.1％ダウンし、リアルタイムで総合株指数において最大の損失を記録しました。 
仮想通貨市場は一段と悪化し、仮想通貨は大損を報告しました。 ビットコイン（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は6％下落し、62400ドルとなりました。 イーサリアム（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>）は、4.1％下落し、3024ドルとなりました。
一方、ゴールド（金）やシルバーは急激に上昇し、投資家たちはこぞって安全な資産に逃避しました。
SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）は1.5％上昇し、史上最高のクローズを記録しました。 シルバーは、2月2021年以来の最高値でのクローズを目指し、2.9％上昇しました、というのも iShares シルバー トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）が報じています。
原油は、米国の早い時間帯の損失を取り消し、西テキサス中間原油はバレル85ドルを超える急騰を見せました。米国石油基金（United States Oil Fund）（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>）は0.1％上昇しました。 
チャート：2024年4月15日におけるSLV、GLD、USO、SPY、QQQ、BTCの株価
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-292577" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
今すぐ読む: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38239994/financial-markets-on-edge-as-oil-and-gold-prices-could-soar-amid-rising-israel-iran-tensions">イスラエルとイランの緊張が高まる中、原油と金の価格が急騰する可能性があるため、金融市場は緊迫している</a>
写真：シャッターストック
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