最新ニュース iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV)

The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of silver.

iShares Silver Trust

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Israel War Cabinet discusses retaliatory strikes

イスラエルの戦争内閣は、イランに「明確かつ力強く」反応することを誓います。G7はテヘランに制裁を検討中：株価は下落し、ゴールドは急騰、WTIは85ドルを上回りました。

SOLVAC SA by SOLVAC SA

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SILVER DOLLAR RES INC by Silver Dollar Resources Inc.

Silver Dollar Resources Inc

SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD ORD by Silverlake Axis, Ltd.

Silverlake Axis Ltd

Sylvamo Corp

SILVER MINES LTD SYDNEY by Silver Mines Ltd., Sydney

Silver Mines Ltd

ETRACS Silver Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 21, 2033

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SILVER ONE RESOURCES ORD by Silver One Resources Inc.

Silver One Resources Inc

SILVER STAR PROPERTIES by SILVER STAR PROPERTIES REIT, INC

Silver Star Properties REIT Inc

SILVER TIGER METALS INC by Silver Tiger Metals Inc.

Silver Tiger Metals Inc

Solvay SA

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-04_08h45_45.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Barn Burner Jobs Report</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-spy-mc-10042024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is rallying on the jobs report.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The just released jobs report is a barn burner. The report is a lot stronger than the consensus.&nbsp; Here are the details of the jobs report:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 254K vs. 135K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 223K vs. 125K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.1% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>At a minimum, this data point shows that Powell could have been wrong. When Powell cut interest rates by 50 bps, he explained it away by predicting labor weakness. The just released jobs report shows that there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>Before and after the 50 bps rate cut,  we shared with readers The Arora Report analysis that the data did not support a 50 bps rate cut. Today's jobs report clearly proves that The Arora Report analysis was correct and the Fed may have made a mistake.  </li>
<li>Bonds are falling on the strong report.</li>
<li>Stocks are seeing extremely aggressive buying after the report. In the short term, it is bullish in that Powell gave the stock  market a big gift of a 50 bps cut predicting labor weakness, but there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>After the jobs report, AI stocks are ripping. In the early trade, buying is extremely aggressive in AI stocks.  </li>
<li>This data is going to be ammunition for those who have been saying that the 50 bps rate cut was designed to help Harris win the election even though the Fed continues to publicly say that the Fed does not consider politics. Keep in mind, Trump has said that he would not reappoint Powell.</li>
<li>Adding to the optimism is that dock workers have suspended their strike.</li>
<li>In the longer term, this jobs data raises the probability that inflation will not come down to the Fed's 2% target and the Fed will once again be proven wrong.</li>
<li>As a note of caution, this is only one piece of data. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching additional pieces of new data as it comes. This is exactly what prudent investors should do.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index yesterday came at 54.9 vs. 51.6 consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, this data also shows that the economy is strong.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on strong jobs data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

Federal Reserve

General

GOOG

AI Stocks Ripping, Barn Burner Jobs Report - Could Powell Be Wrong?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-03_08h44_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cognitive Dissonance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-bonds-israel-strike-iran-tlt-mc-10032024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed rate cut was announced.</li>
<li>At the time the Fed rate cut was announced, this was the landscape:
<ul>
<li>Wall Street firms were tripping over themselves to rush their clients into buying long bonds.</li>
<li>The momo crowd was aggressively buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Technically, long bonds had broken out.</li>
<li>Trading services were sending signals to their members to go all in on buying long bonds.</li>
<li>Almost everyone was predicting that bond yields would fall much lower.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Long bonds move inversely to the yield.&nbsp; When yield goes higher, long bonds fall.</li>
<li>On the morning before the Fed rate cut announcement, The Arora Report made a bold call contrary to the prevailing wisdom.  The call was inline with prior calls that long bond yields may rise and long bonds may fall after the rate cut.  We wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that long bonds have fallen and yields have risen.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the breakout above the resistance zone failed.&nbsp; Ironically, this breakout was the reason legions of investors who rely only on traditional technical analysis bought long bonds on the breakout. To make matters worse, most of such bond trading positions are taken on high leverage.&nbsp; Due to high leverage, these positions now have substantial losses.
<ul>
<li>This is a cautionary tale that illustrates why investors should not rely solely on one form of analysis such as traditional technical analysis. Investors should rely on systems, such as The Arora Report system, that synergistically combine in an optimized manner the best elements of the following:
<ul>
<li>Macro analysis</li>
<li>Fundamental analysis</li>
<li>Technical analysis</li>
<li>Quantitative analysis</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Money is flowing into the safety of Treasuries due to anxiety about potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the escalation in the Middle East, TLT would have been much lower now.</li>
<li>Going forward, investors need to remember the probability adjusted risk reward ratio in long bonds is not great.  Long bonds will work only if there is a major recession or a major war breaks out.  However, investors need to remember that the stock market is counting on no recession. Investors are suffering from cognitive dissonance – they are buying stocks believing that there will not be a recession, they are buying bonds believing there will be a recession.</li>
<li>If inflation starts rising again, investors in long bonds will experience major losses.&nbsp; Investors are very short sighted and are also losing track of the fact that the election is not far away.&nbsp; Both Trump and Harris are committed to more reckless borrowing and more reckless spending.&nbsp; This will increase the supply of Treasuries.&nbsp; How can a higher supply of Treasuries be good for long bonds?&nbsp; The answer is that it is not good for long bonds.</li>
<li>On the positive side, NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), CEO Jensen Huang says Blackwell production is in full swing and the demand for Blackwell is insane.</li>
<li>Also on the positive side, OpenAI has raised $6.6B in new funds at a valuation of $157B.&nbsp; This valuation is significantly higher than the last round.</li>
<li>Anxiety is building among investors regarding the upcoming strike on Iran by Israel.&nbsp; There are reports that Israel wants to attack Iran's nuclear installations, but Biden is trying to restrain Israel.</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 225K vs. 223K consensus.&nbsp; Jobless claims are not showing weakness in the jobs picture.&nbsp; Powell saw weakness in the jobs picture, and that was one of his justifications for the 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; More information will become available about the jobs picture tomorrow when the official jobs report is released at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; The jobs report has the potential to be a major market moving event.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; The consensus is 51.6.&nbsp; This data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
The stock buying stampede in Hong Kong is slowing.  Mainland markets are closed.  Prudent investors are taking advantage of the rally to sell.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report&#8217;s plan continues to be to buy on a dip.  The Arora Report has new buy zones for Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">India</h3>
Growth concerns are emerging in India.  Money is beginning to flow out of India and into China.  As full disclosure, The Arora Report has new signals on India ETF WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>), VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>), and iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

ASHR

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Investors Suffering Cognitive Dissonance, Insane Demand For Nvidia Chips, Anxiety Builds About Israel And Iran

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-02_09h01_16.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">The Power Of Missile Defense</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-raytheon-missile-defense-iron-dome-patriot-rtx-mc-10022024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Rtx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of RTX stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Iran fired about 180 ballistic missiles on Israel.  Israel and the U.S. were able to intercept most of these missiles with missile defense systems. These missiles reached Israel in 12 minutes. The defense was impressive considering there were no fatalities.</li>
<li>What happened in Israel yesterday shows the power of missile defense systems and illustrates the opportunity for investors in missile defense stocks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, RTX is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. RTX is The Arora Report's favorite missile defense stock.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that RTX has broken out on the success of missile defense in Israel.</li>
<li>RTX is a joint developer of the Iron Dome used in Israel. RTX is best known for its Patriot Air And Missile Defense System.  RTX also produces several other missile defense systems and aircraft engines.</li>
<li>RTX entered The Arora Report portfolio when the stock experienced a massive drop on the news of cracks in Pratt &amp; Whitney engines. The Arora Report uses over 50 different strategies. RTX belongs to the strategy of buying a good company where the stock is down due to a fixable technical problem.</li>
<li>The chart shows the power of buy zones.  Buy zones allow investors to buy stocks and ETFs when the probability adjusted risk reward is more favorable.  Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin in investing. Smart money focuses on risk adjusted returns. In contrast, the momo crowd focuses only on rewards – the result is that the momo crowd goes through volatile cycles of making money and losing money, and in the end, accumulating far less than smart money.</li>
<li>The chart illustrates the power of a billionaire and hedge fund technique known as a trade around position.&nbsp; A trade around position can dramatically increase profits and reduce risks.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the RTX trade around position was started at an average of $80.70. The position has over 50% gain as of this writing.  The trade around position is separate and distinct from the core position.</li>
<li>Peace is not about to break out in the world.&nbsp; As such, all investors should consider a defense stock or ETF in their portfolio.</li>
<li>For those interested in ETFs, The Arora Report&#8217;s ETF of choice is iShares US Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#BATS">ITA</a>).&nbsp; As full disclosure, ITA is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Automatic Data Processing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADP#NASDAQ">ADP</a>) is the largest private payroll processor in the country.&nbsp; ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the employment picture ahead of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday.&nbsp; ADP employment change came at 143K vs. 120K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is staying strong.</li>
<li>Previously, JOLTS job openings came at 8.04M, higher than expectations.</li>
<li>&nbsp;ISM Manufacturing Index came at 47.2 vs. 47.4 consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying Stampede</h3>
Stocks are experiencing a once in a century buying stampede in Hong Kong.  Stocks in Hong Kong rose 7%. Property developers rose 47%, and broker stocks rose 35%.  As full disclosure, Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in &nbsp;Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund

Opportunity In Missile Defense Stocks, Once In A Century Buying Stampede In Hong Kong

Macro Economic Events

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, which has caused global uncertainty and lifted safe-haven assets.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-01_08h10_05.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Important Data Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-dip-powell-blind-money-spy-mc-10012024">click here</a> for an enalrged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows the dip in the market caused by Powell's remarks. Powell pushed back against aggressive rate cut bets that the momo crowd has placed. Powell clearly said that the Fed plans on two 25 bps cuts this year assuming the economy stays on the expected trajectory. The momo crowd is counting on 100 bps cut. Even non-momo investors are betting on 75 bps cuts.</li>
<li>The chart shows the dip on Powell's remarks was aggressively bought, running the stock market higher than where it was before Powell's remarks. The buying appears to be related to quarter end window dressing.</li>
<li>Momo gurus' new narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks is to not trust the Fed.&nbsp; Prudent investors always need to be mindful that momo gurus' interest is not the same as prudent investors' best interest.</li>
<li>There are two important pieces of data ahead.
<ul>
<li>JOLTS job openings data will be released at 10am ET.</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing index will also be released at 10am ET.</li>
<li>Both of these pieces of data may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The most important economic data this week is the jobs report, also known as the mother of all reports, that will be released at 8:30am ET on Friday.</li>
<li>Expect blind money to flow into the stock market today and tomorrow.&nbsp; Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis irrespective of market conditions.</li>
<li>East coast port workers have gone on strike. FedEx Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) is a beneficiary.  As full disclosure, FDX was recently added to the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy, taking advantage of the dip on earnings.  The Arora Report utilizes over 50 different strategies. FDX belongs to the strategy of earnings patterns that historically work. </li>
<li>In important news for prudent investors, Michael Dell has sold $1.22B in Dell Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DELL#NYSE">DELL</a>) shares.&nbsp; Michael Dell is taking advantage of the run up in Dell shares on the AI frenzy.&nbsp; The momo crowd is oblivious and has been an aggressive buyer of DELL stock.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should also note that there is a consistent pattern of insiders selling AI stocks that have run up.&nbsp; It is important to pay attention to the protection band as well as to separate articles indicating putting on hedges or taking partial profits.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
Japan's new prime minister is likely to favor tighter fiscal policy and tighter monetary policy.  Such tighter policies will be good for the Japanese yen.  As full disclosure, there is a position in yen using Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.  On the negative side, tighter fiscal and monetary policies in Japan increase the risk to the carry trade.  Lately, in the carry trade, funds have been borrowing in yen and investing in U.S. stocks, especially AI stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Asia

DELL

Powell Stock Market Drip Aggressively Bought, Important Data And Blind Money Ahead

Benzinga Market Summary: S&P Falls Amid Iran-Israel Tensions And Dockworkers Strike, Oil Surges On Report Of Potential Iran Attack On Israel, Gold And Silver Rise While Bitcoin Drops

Gold and silver are trading higher. Safe-haven assets may be rising amid uncertainty following reports of a potential Iranian attack on Israel.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-30_08h18_55.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chinese Market Breaks Negative Pattern</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fomo-driving-chinese-market-breaks-negative-pattern-ashr-mc-09302024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>In a prior article, we shared with you details of China's stimulus program. Prior to last Tuesday, Chinese stocks had been beaten down and had been trading at low valuations.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the Chinese stock market has broken the negative pattern of lower highs.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the pattern existed from the 2021 peak until last week.</li>
<li>When the rally first started, the concern was that this rally would also fail like prior rallies. Initially, it was simply prudent to consider the rally in Chinese stocks last week to be suspect.  The chart shows that even the COVID opening rally failed, and the subsequent AI rally also failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally is on high volume. This indicates conviction and provides confirmation for the rally.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that the Chinese stock market is very overbought. Overbought markets tend to pullback in the short term.</li>
<li>In Shanghai, the CSI 300 jumped 8.5%. This is the biggest single day gain since 2008.</li>
<li>The five day gain in Shanghai is the strongest since 1996.</li>
<li>The chart shows that this rally has decisively broken the downtrend like a rocketship.</li>
<li>From a technical perspective, such strong rallies tend to take stocks higher after a brief pullback.</li>
<li>The rally is partly driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) among foreign investors who are rushing into China.</li>
<li>Money is flowing out of safer Chinese 30 year Treasury bonds and into Chinese stocks. Chinese 30 Treasury bond futures fell to a two month low after losing 3.6% last week.  This is the worst quick loss ever.</li>
<li>For the day, the economic data from China is poor. China's PMIs are weak. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Manufacturing PMI came at 49.8 vs. 49.4 consensus.</li>
<li>Non-manufacturing PMI came at 50.0 vs. 50.4 consensus.</li>
<li>A number less than 50 is considered economic contraction.</li>
<li>Expectations are that China's PMIs will spike up in the coming months due to government stimulus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>As full disclosure, The Arora Report has published new buy zones for Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (ASHR) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging. There is also a new buy zone for emerging markets consumer Columbia Research Enhanced Emerging Economies ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ECON#NYSE">ECON</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging. Emerging market consumers are getting rich and provide one of the best opportunities for long term investors. Instead of chasing the price on Chinese stocks and ETFs, prudent investors should consider being highly selective. </li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, investors are ignoring two risks in China:
<ul>
<li>The traditional geopolitical risk, especially related to Taiwan.</li>
<li>The risk of Trump being elected. Trump is proposing 100% &#8211; 200% tariffs on Chinese goods. Such tariffs will negate much of the benefit from the Chinese government stimulus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Unlike last week, the optimism from China is not carrying to the U.S. for the following reasons:
<ul>
<li>Stellantis NV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>), the owner of Chrysler, Jeep, and Fiat, is giving poor guidance.</li>
<li>Volkswagen A G Unsponsored Represent 1 10th Sh ADR (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VWAGY#OTC">VWAGY</a>) is also providing poor guidance.</li>
<li>Stocks of General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) and Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) are coming under pressure.</li>
<li>Negative sentiment from Europe is carrying to the U.S.</li>
<li>East coast dock workers may go on strike, disrupting commerce.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Also not helping this morning is that quarter end window dressing is almost over.&nbsp; In window dressing, some money managers buy the best performing stocks of the quarter so that they can show their clients in the quarter end reports that they were holding the best performing stocks.&nbsp; This was partially the reason for the recent strength in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and other AI stocks.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing some selling along with junk stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Emerging Global Shares Dow Jones Emerging Marketsnsumer Titan Index Fund

ECON

STLA

VWAGY

FOMO Drives Biggest Gain In Shanghai Since 2008, Chinese Market Breaks The Negative Pattern

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-27_08h59_50.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Spending Disappointment</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-spending-disappointment-boj-carry-trade-smci-mc-09272024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of SMCI stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>A fortune is to be made in artificial intelligence, but it is not going to be in a straight line. At times, it is going to be treacherous.  It is important to not make mistakes by getting carried away with the momo crowd and listening to momo gurus who have a vested interest that is not your best interest.</li>
<li>The chart shows that momo crowd favorite SMCI fell yesterday on the news of a Department of Justice (DOJ) probe due to allegations of accounting irregularities. A DOJ probe is a serious matter as it is often a criminal probe.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the enthusiasm was at its peak right after SMCI stock was added to S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The chart shows from the peak to the low, the stock lost 69% of its value.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the day S&amp;P 500 added SMCI stock, The Arora Report made a bold call. The Arora Report call was that SMCI was worth only $442 &#8211; $486 in the best case. The stock peaked at $1229.  As of this writing in the premarket, SMCI stock is trading at $400.95.  All Arora Report calls are 100% transparent, traceable, and auditable. Members have access to over ten years of archives, including the winners and losers – no cherry picking.</li>
<li>Right now, the momo crowd is sitting on massive losses in SMCI stock. The momo crowd was not able to distinguish between NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Super Micro Computer – the prevailing belief among the momo crowd was that NVDA and SMCI were the same.</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending.  Just released personal income and spending data is disappointing.  Here are the details of the new personal income and spending data:
<ul>
<li>Personal income came at 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>PCE is the Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation gauge.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the data is in line with expectations. As such, this data should have no impact on the stock market.</li>
<li>Even though the stock market pays a lot of attention to PCE, in The Arora Report analysis, economists have become really good at projecting PCE.&nbsp; As such, investors&#8217; expectations, in general, should be that PCE will come in line with consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
Bank of Japan (BOJ) actions are very important for U.S. investors. The reason is the carry trade.  In carry trade, funds borrow in yen and invest in the U.S. stock market. Lately, they have been buying AI stocks. Japan's ruling party LDP has chosen Shigeru Ishiba as its new leader. Ishiba is the next prime minister of Japan. In The Arora Report analysis, yen is rallying on the news as Ishiba is a supporter of BOJ.
In The Arora Report analysis, this development is negative for the carry trade and positive for the yen position using ETF Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXY#NYSE">FXY</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is on track to have the best September ever.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

SMCI

Personal Income And Spending Disappoint, Super Micro Computer Lesson, BOJ Supporter As Japan PM

Investors cautious about the Federal Reserve&#39;s September rate cut&mdash;confirmed at its mid-month meeting to be a full 50 basis points&mdash;and skeptical about the strength of the dollar have flocked to gold, sending the most famous safe haven commodity soaring to record highs. But there is only so much upside potential to gold, particularly given the attention that it has already drawn. For investors interested in diversifying beyond gold but still in search of a hedge against the dollar amid a new interest rate environment, silver provides a suitable alternative.
The price of silver has climbed at a pace just slightly slower than gold in the last year, surging by more than 29% in that time. Investors looking to stock up on physical metals may find that silver&#39;s lower price relative to gold makes it more accessible. It also has a strong array of applications, as its conductivity makes it an essential component of many electronics, solar components, and other products.
There are also ways to build indirect exposure to silver, either through a number of ETFs focused on the mining industry or through the stocks of individual silver mining firms. These companies tend to do well when the price of silver surges but are potentially separated from the volatility of the metal itself to some degree.
<h2>PAAS: Increased Resource Estimates, Earnings Growth Potential</h2>
Pan American Silver Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/paas#NYSE">PAAS</a>) is among the larger silver mining companies, with a market capitalization of $7.5 billion. This size is reflected in the firm&#39;s large portfolio of mines scattered throughout the Americas. One mine in particular&mdash;the La Colorada Skarn mine in Mexico&mdash;is notable as Pan American&#39;s highest-producing silver mine.
Pan American announced a significant increase in estimated silver resources at La Colorada earlier this month. The firm also has expansions planned in other mining sites as well. This news could be part of the reason analysts expect Pan American to more than double its earnings in the coming year.
The company is also favored by analysts because of its healthy free cash flow (over $102 million in the latest quarter), which gives it a healthy cushion to fund expansions of its mining efforts or dividend payments.
<h2>WPM: Solid Finances and Balance Sheet</h2>
Investors looking for stability in a mining stock should look to Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/wpm#NYSE">WPM</a>), which generated an impressive $234 million in operating cash flow last quarter. The firm carries a cash balance of over $500 million and no debt as of the end of the second quarter, making it ideally positioned to address a variety of business needs through the remainder of the year.
Wheaton is among the few mining stocks to generate net earnings rather than net losses last quarter.
This company is less of a targeted silver play than some others, however.
While Wheaton&#39;s silver production for the latest quarter did climb by 14% relative to a year earlier, silver production and sales remain just a small portion of the company&#39;s business, well behind gold.
<h2>NEM: Notable Dividend and Major Cash Influx</h2>
Newmont Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nem#NYSE">NEM</a>) is also one of the largest mining companies, but while other firms expand their operations, this company is making moves to streamline its business.
Like Wheaton above, its primary business is gold, though Newmont does maintain its silver mining operations as well.
Newmont has recently renewed its focus on high-production tier 1 mining assets, and in doing so plans to sell a number of its other mining projects.
In the process, Newmont could raise $2 billion.
This could boost its dividend yield and may be a factor among analysts forecasting earnings growth of more than 20% in the coming year.
<h2>Silver ETFs Offer Easy Exposure to Silver Without Storage Hassles</h2>
Silver ETFs offer investors an easy way of tracking the spot price of silver without having to face the challenges associated with holding, storing, and transporting physical silver. An under-the-radar silver ETF is the Aberdeen Standard Physical Silver Shares ETF (ARCA:SIVR), which stands out for its strong performance over the last year&mdash;it is up more than 28% during that time&mdash;as well as its expense ratio of 0.30%, lower than popular competitor iShares Silver Trust ETF (ARCA:SLV) which stands at 0.50%.
The article &quot;<a href="https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-ideas/prepare-for-a-silver-surge-best-mining-stocks-to-watch-now/">Prepare for a Silver Surge: Best Mining Stocks to Watch Now</a>&quot; first appeared on MarketBeat.

Earnings

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Dividends

Analyst Ratings

PAAS

SIVR

Prepare for a Silver Surge: Best Mining Stocks to Watch Now

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-26_08h32_04.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Growing Optimism</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-china-bringing-optimism-wall-street-positioning-mu-mc-09262024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>In yesterday's Morning Capsule, we wrote the following about Micron earnings in advance:</li>
<li>Going into earnings, here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>Whisper numbers are below the consensus numbers. This is an oddity among AI stocks. Among AI stocks, whisper numbers have consistently been higher than consensus numbers.</li>
<li>Wall Street positioning is negative.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock has bounced off of the support zone.</li>
<li>Historically, when the foregoing factors are combined, the stock goes up after earnings.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows a strong up move in MU after earnings were released after the market closed yesterday.</li>
<li>The chart illustrates the value of understanding positioning and the big edge it gives to investors. Micron earnings were mediocre.  The real reason behind the strong move is negative Wall Street positioning.  If the same earnings would have come out a few months ago, when Wall Street positioning was very positive, the stock would have been down $20.  </li>
<li>The chart shows that in the premarket, MU is breaking above the resistance zone. If MU closes above the resistance zone shown on the chart, this zone will become a support zone.</li>
<li>The move up in MU stock is bringing in extremely aggressive buying in most semiconductor stocks in the premarket.&nbsp; In turn, the buying is becoming aggressive in most AI stocks in the premarket.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you details of China's stimulus plan.&nbsp; Now, with a potential addition, China's stimulus plan is about to become a bazooka.
<ul>
<li>China is considering injecting up to one trillion yuan into state owned banks for the purpose of expanding their capacity to loan more money.</li>
<li>Stocks in Hong Kong are up 4.2% and up 3.6% in Shanghai.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The strong move up in Chinese stocks brought in optimism first to Asian stocks, then to Europe, and now to the U.S. in a round robin fashion.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, deflation in China has helped U.S. inflation.&nbsp; Now all of the stimulus in China is going to start inflation in China.&nbsp; Some of that inflation is going to come back to the U.S. at a time when the Fed is aggressively cutting rates.&nbsp; All of this could spell trouble for the stock market down the road.&nbsp; However, for the time being, no one is connecting the dots as the party shifts to full swing.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Weekly initial claims came at 218K vs. 224K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture is strong</li>
<li>Durable orders came stronger than expected.&nbsp; Here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>Headline Durable Orders came at 0.0% vs. -2.9% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable Orders Ex-Transportation came at 0.5% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Just released GDP data shows that economic growth is strong.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Q2 GDP Third Estimate came at 3.0% vs. 3.0% consensus.</li>
<li>GDP Deflator Third Estimate came at 2.5% vs. 2.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The foregoing economic data is bringing in aggressive buying in the stock market.&nbsp; The reason is that normally when the economy is this strong, the Fed is not aggressively cutting interest rates.&nbsp; Here, the economy is strong, and the Fed is aggressively cutting rates.</li>
<li>Here is the key question for prudent investors: Did the Fed make a mistake with the 50 bps cut?&nbsp; Stay tuned for more.</li>
<li>Powell comments are ahead and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying along with tech stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

China Bazooka Brings Optimism To U.S. Stocks, Micron Earnings Show The Value Of Knowing Positioning

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-25_08h49_58.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Key To The AI Trade</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-micron-earnings-china-rate-cut-mu-mc-09252024">click here</a> for a chart of Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Micron is one of the three largest semiconductor memory makers in the world.</li>
<li>The demand for high bandwidth memory for AI applications is rapidly increasing.</li>
<li>The chart shows Micron's last two earnings and the market reaction.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock peaked with a bearish engulfing candle. A bearish engulfing candle is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Arora signal was given to take partial profits.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, MU is long from $21.77 in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>The chart shows a very substantial drop in the stock.&nbsp; There are two reasons for the drop:
<ul>
<li>From a fundamental perspective, the demand for memory in smartphones has been soft.</li>
<li>At its peak, MU had become a crowded trade, and Wall Street positioning had become extremely positive. These are the two factors that often lead to big drops.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Going into earnings, here are the key points:
<ul>
<li>Whisper numbers are below the consensus numbers.&nbsp; This is an oddity among AI stocks.&nbsp; Among AI stocks, whisper numbers have consistently been higher than consensus numbers.</li>
<li>Wall Street positioning is negative.</li>
<li>The chart shows that MU stock has bounced off of the support zone.</li>
<li>Historically, when the foregoing factors are combined, the stock goes up after earnings.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Micron earnings and the stock reaction will be an important key to the AI trade.</li>
<li>Some of Micron's business is a commodity business and therefore does not have the same moat as Nvidia (NVDA).&nbsp; Nonetheless, investors should be cognizant that many AI stocks have become crowded trades and Wall Street positioning is extremely positive.&nbsp; This is the fifth stage of a change.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ppp-long-trade-ppp">click here</a> to see the five stages of a long trade.&nbsp; &nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/five-stages-of-a-short-trade-ppp">click here</a> for five stages of a short trade.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, investors should pay attention to the protection band as well as posts calling for hedging AI stocks.</li>
<li>We have seen sharing with you the stimulus measures the Chinese government has been taking and the resulting rally that is taking place in the Chinese stock market.&nbsp; The latest is that China has now cut the one year policy rate by the largest amount ever, from 2.3% to 2%.</li>
<li>The Arora Report has followed China continuously for the last 17 years.  The two ETFs of interest are Mainland China ETF Xtrackers Hvst CSI 300 China A Shs ETF Class A (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASHR#NYSE">ASHR</a>) and Hong Kong ETF iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>). </li>
<li>What happens in China has a major impact on all markets around the globe,including the U.S. stock market.&nbsp; The world is interconnected.&nbsp; Even investors who do not invest outside of the U.S. need to pay attention to what is happening in the rest of the world.
<ul>
<li>The Arora Report has continuously followed economic indicators in 23 countries over the last 17 years.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consumer confidence came at 98.7 vs. 102.9 consensus.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, this data went against the soft landing and no landing scenarios.&nbsp; However, for the time being, the stock market celebrated lower consumer confidence on the hope that falling consumer confidence would lead the Fed to another 50 bps cut in interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
Footer:The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Tech

Micron Earnings Ahead - Key To AI Trade; Biggest One Year Rate Cut In China

Silver is trading higher following the Fed's recent rate cut.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-24_08h10_11.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">AI Exuberance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-exuberance-copper-oil-rise-pwr-mc-09242024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Quanta Services Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWR#NYSE">PWR</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of PWR stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>Artificial intelligence data centers are power hungry.&nbsp; In the stock market, exuberance for stocks that help power AI data centers has reached a fever pitch.</li>
<li>The chart shows PWR stock has broken out.&nbsp; Quanta Services is a major contractor for utilities.</li>
<li>Volume on the chart shows that the volume on the breakout was higher than the recent volume, but not as high as it should have been to generate high conviction in the breakout.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that PWR stock is very overbought.</li>
<li>The technical breakout is bringing in aggressive buying in PWR stock from investors who trade only on technicals.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is aggressively buying PWR stock.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, PWR stock is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; The Arora Report is long from $37.&nbsp;</li>
<li>From a valuation perspective, PWR stock is now expensive.&nbsp; It is trading at a trailing PE of 56 and a forward PE of 29.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with readers about China:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a conference tomorrow.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>China is making a big move.
<ul>
<li>People's Bank of China (PBC) is lowering its reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points.</li>
<li>The bank has lowered its seven day repurchase rate by 20 basis points.</li>
<li>The bank may soon lower its prime rate.</li>
<li>The down payment requirement for second homes has been lowered to 15% from 25%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Chinese stocks are jumping.&nbsp; Stocks in Hong Kong jumped 4.1% and 4.2% in Shanghai.</li>
<li>Investors in the U.S. should not underestimate the impact of these moves in China. &nbsp;The moves are generating position sentiment.</li>
<li>Copper, steel, oil, and other commodities are moving up on the China moves.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Copper stock Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  The Arora Report also has a short term trade on oil ETF United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).</li>
<li>The Conference Board's consumer confidence data will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is USO.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Power For AI Exuberance Reaches Fever Pitch – Quanta Breaks Out; Copper And Oil Rise On Chinese Move

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-23_08h36_43.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tech Stocks Approach Resistance</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-tech-stocks-resistance-china-stimulus-qqq-mc-09232024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that tech stocks, as represented by QQQ, are approaching the resistance zone.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that at a time when Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&amp;P 500 (SPX) have hit a new high, QQQ has not. The reason is that tech stocks are underperforming.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that QQQ is overbought.</li>
<li>We shared with you prior to the Fed rate cut that long bonds may not respond as investors expected.&nbsp; That call continues to prove spot on every day.&nbsp; Long bonds are falling again this morning.&nbsp; This will start impacting the stock market in due course unless Fed speakers come out and make more dovish comments.&nbsp; For the time being, the momo crowd is oblivious.</li>
<li>In Lebanon and Northern Israel, Hezbollah and Israel are inching towards a full scale war.&nbsp; U.S. diplomacy is in full swing to stop a full scale war.&nbsp; The momo crowd is oblivious, but prudent investors should pay attention to developments in the Middle East.</li>
<li>Sentiment has been lifted all across the globe on government stimulus hopes in China.
<ul>
<li>The People&#8217;s Bank of China (PBC) cut the 14 day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.85%.</li>
<li>Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a conference tomorrow.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
European stocks are holding up on more rate cut hopes in spite of unexpected economic contraction.
<ul>
<li>Eurozone flash Manufacturing PMI came at 44.8 vs. 45.7.</li>
<li>Eurozone flash Services PMI came at 50.5 vs. 52.3.</li>
<li>A number less than 50 indicates economic contraction.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Harris has now fully jumped on to the crypto bandwagon after watching heavy campaign contributions from the crypto industry to the Trump campaign.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on Harris support.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Tech Stocks Approach Resistance Zone, Full Scale War Potential In Middle East, China Stimulus Hopes

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-20_08h35_26-1.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nuclear Power Revival</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-quad-witching-nuclear-power-revival-ceg-mc-09202024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CEG#NASDAQ">CEG</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of CEG is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>To feed the power hungry AI data centers, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) is signing a power purchase agreement with CEG.</li>
<li>The chart shows the gap up on CEG news.</li>
<li>The chart shows that CEG is in the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that CEG is very overbought.&nbsp; An overbought stock tends to pullback.</li>
<li>Based on the quantitative screen of The Arora Report's ZYX Change Method, CEG is way overvalued at this time.&nbsp; However, CEG will benefit from AI, and as such, it is on our radar to give a signal when it is appropriate.</li>
<li>To provide the power, CEG will restart Three Mile Island Unit 1.&nbsp; This reactor was shut down about five years ago due to economic reasons.&nbsp; Three Mile Island Unit 2 is famous for a partial melt down, which caused the most serious nuclear accident on U.S. soil.&nbsp; In addition to CEG, there are opportunities in other energy producers that will help meet the massive power demand for AI.
<ul>
<li>Quanta Services Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWR#NYSE">PWR</a>) is a contractor to electric utilities and is benefiting from the AI power demand.&nbsp; As full disclosure, PWR is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. PWR is long from $37.&nbsp; </li>
<li>First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>), which provides solar power to data centers. As full disclosure, FSLR is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>A new name that is on The Arora Report&#8217;s radar is Vistra Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>). As full disclosure, a signal may be given when appropriate.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>We shared with readers yesterday that quad witching was to the upside.
<ul>
<li>A part of the strength in the stock market yesterday was due to quad witching and not due to the Fed's 50 bps interest rate cut.</li>
<li>About $5 trillion notional value of stock derivatives are expiring today.&nbsp; This is a huge amount but not a record.</li>
<li>This morning, expiring futures are exerting downward pressure on the market after yesterday's runup.&nbsp; Futures are expiring this morning.</li>
<li>Options will expire in the afternoon.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Historically, gains due to quad witching tend to reverse in the following week and sometimes even on the expiration day.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
In a relief to U.S. stock investors, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates unchanged.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and MSFT.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Trump's advocacy continues to bring buying into Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>). Here is the key question: Will bitcoin whales take advantage of the strength to sell as is their pattern?
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

FSLR

$5 Trillion Worth Of Quad Witching, AI Leading To Revivial Of Nuclear Power

Gold and silver are trading higher after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 bps.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-18_08h25_17.png" alt="" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Credibility At Stake</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-fed-day-rate-cut-wall-street-positioning-spy-mc-09182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of  SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is near the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally has been on low volume.&nbsp; This indicates a lack of conviction.</li>
<li>The chart shows that RSI has just entered the overbought zone.&nbsp; This indicates that the stock market can go either way.</li>
<li>The chart shows that if the stock market does not break out and turns down from here, it will be tracing a triple top.&nbsp; A triple top is a negative pattern.</li>
<li>FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET today and will be followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.</li>
<li>Understanding Wall Street positioning can give investors a big edge.&nbsp; Wall Street is positioned for a 50 bps cut and highly dovish comments.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Further in The Arora Report analysis, the totality of data does not justify very dovish commentary.&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed complies with the momo crowd's demands, the Fed's credibility will be hurt in the long run.&nbsp; There may be unintended consequences.&nbsp; One unintended consequence may be a rise in long term yields in due course.&nbsp; The other potential unintended consequence may be an unhealthy drop in the dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, S&amp;P 500 at 6000 is a magnet for traders.</li>
<li>If the momo crowd gets what they want, the momo crowd will aggressively buy.&nbsp; However, it is not clear how smart money will react.&nbsp; There is a fair probability of smart money taking advantage of the strength to sell.</li>
<li>If the Fed cuts by 25 basis points, then the market reaction will depend on commentary and the dot plot.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed cuts by 25 bps and the commentary is not dovish, there is a downside risk to the stock market.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors need to be very mindful that the Fed is about to cut interest rates at a time when the stock market is near its all time high, house prices are near all time highs, and the economy is strong.&nbsp; Historically, the Fed cuts interest rates when the economy is weak or in recession, house prices are falling, and the stock market is weak.&nbsp; By aggressively cutting interest rates now accompanied by highly dovish commentary, the Fed risks its long term credibility.&nbsp; &nbsp; Highly dovish action now also has the potential to start rampant speculation in stocks, housing, and cryptos.</li>
<li>A 50 bps cut and highly dovish commentary will be helpful for a Harris election.&nbsp; The Fed will never admit it, but there is a school of thought that the Fed wants to help Harris win the election.&nbsp; The reason is that Trump has already said he will not reappoint Powell.&nbsp; Further, Trump has said that he will interfere with the Fed.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Housing Starts</h3>
Housing starts came at 1356K vs. 1320K consensus.
Building permits came at 1475K vs. 1415K consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, activity among builders is increasing as they anticipate falling interest rates will let loose pent up demand.&nbsp; This will increase economic activity, which in turn is good for the stock market.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying in anticipation of a 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp; Bullish crypto gurus are hopeful that a 50 bps cut will take bitcoin to a new high.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Fed Credibility At Stake - Wall Street Positioned For 50 BPS Cut And Highly Dovish Comments

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-17_08h24_10.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Against Prevailing Wisdom</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-microsoft-buyback-trump-crypto-plan-msft-mc-09172024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after touching the low band of the support zone, MSFT stock has moved up in a straight line.</li>
<li>The chart shows the move up in the early trade on three announcements:
<ul>
<li>Microsoft is announcing a new $60B stock buyback program.&nbsp; This matches the largest buyback program ever from Microsoft.</li>
<li>Microsoft is increasing the dividend by 10%.</li>
<li>Microsoft is introducing more AI features in Office 365 and a new collaborative tool named Copilot Pages.&nbsp; This new tool allows users to collaborate and edit data taken from Copilot on a single page. The company is also introducing a new agent builder allowing users to build AI powered agents.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Microsoft is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. The Arora Report has just issued a new buy zone.</li>
<li>Investors are seeing the news from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) as return to normalcy after the pandemic – Amazon will require workers to be at the office five days a week.</li>
<li>The stock market is running as Wall Street positions for a 50 bps rate cut. 50 bps rate cut has now become the prevailing wisdom.</li>
<li>Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the data just released is very important because it is the last piece of economic data that the FOMC is going to see before making its rate decision tomorrow.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, the just released retail sales data does not support a 50 bps cut. &nbsp;Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.1% vs. -0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Prior retail sales were revised to 1.1% from 1.0%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in AMZN, MSFT, Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Trump has released details of his crypto project. The project is called World Liberty Financial.  63% of the coins will be bought by the public, 20% will be owned by the founding team, and 17% will be for user rewards.
The release of Trump's crypto project details is bringing in buying in all cryptos, including Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Biggest Even Microsoft Buyback, New Retail Sales Go Against Prevailing Wisdom, Trump Crypto Project

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-09-16_08h12_24.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Silver Is The New AI Play</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-silver-new-ai-play-slv-mc-09162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of silver ETF iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart is a monthly chart to give you the long term perspective.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, silver has the potential to become an AI play.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Silver is extensively used in electronics that go into AI data centers.</li>
<li>AI data centers are power hungry.&nbsp; Some data centers are being built next to huge solar farms.&nbsp; Silver is used in solar cells.&nbsp; First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>) is the leader in utility scale solar farms.&nbsp; As full disclosure, First Solar is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Silver also moves with gold.&nbsp; We have previously shared with readers that gold has hit a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows that silver is far from a new high.</li>
<li>The chart shows the resistance zone.&nbsp; If the resistance zone is broken, silver can go much higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trader magnet for silver.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that silver is overbought.&nbsp; Overbought commodities tend to pullback.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street positioning in silver is very low.&nbsp; This can lead to an explosive up move once the move starts going.&nbsp; Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.&nbsp; Investors who learn Wall Street mechanics gain important edges.&nbsp; It is difficult to learn the nuances of Wall Street mechanics because Wall Street professionals keep these nuances close to the chest due to their very high value.&nbsp; </li>
<li>The move in silver will come down to three factors:
<ul>
<li>If the Fed lowers rates by 25 bps or 50 bps</li>
<li>How gold reacts to the Fed</li>
<li>Does a short squeeze start in silver? &nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, silver is prone to short squeezes.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The move in silver in 2021 was the result of silver becoming a meme crowd favorite and the resulting short squeeze.</li>
<li>The Arora Report gold and silver ratings are used across the globe by individual investors, hedge funds, institutions, bullion dealers, and jewelers.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows that The Arora Report gave a back up the truck and buy silver signal when silver was in the $17 range. The Arora Report gave a sell signal on silver hours before silver peaked.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Not only that, right at the peak around $50, The Arora Report gave a signal to short sell signal and gave a target for silver to fall to $34 in a matter of weeks.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Silver ETF SLV is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.&nbsp; </li>
<li>Last week a big weekly reversal occurred in S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; Last week was one of the best weeks.&nbsp; The prior week was one of the worst weeks.&nbsp; Since 1957, there have been 10 such reversals when the stock market was near a high.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 has been higher an average of 5.2% over the next three months 90% of the time.</li>
<li>Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) is falling today after Ming-Chi Kuo said that demand for the iPhone 16 is lower than expected.&nbsp; In the past, analysis from Ming-Chi Kuo has almost always proven spot on.</li>
<li>This is a Fed week.&nbsp; FOMC will announce its decision at 2pm ET on Wednesday.</li>
<li>In the early trade, the momo crowd is buying, but some selling is coming in tech stocks on Ming-Chi Kuo's report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust SLV.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing light selling.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Silver Is The New AI Play – Trader Magnet Is Much Higher, Fed Week

Gold made a new monthly all-time high in November 2024 and a new quarterly high at the end of 2024. Both events signaled the breakout to come a few months later.

Gold And Silver Update: Deep Dive Into Monthly And Quarterly Charts

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in various SPDR-ETF markets for the trading day that ended, Thursday, October 3.

SPDR ETF Report For Thursday, Oct 3

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the fourth successive day on Friday and trades near the top end of its weekly range, above the $32.00 mark during the Asian session.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD Holds Above $32.00 Mark, Seems Poised To Appreciate Further

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

Metal Markets Report For Thursday, Oct 3

Gold declined with the Dollar rally, but silver rode the equity rally and gained some ground.

Stocks And Precious Metal Charts - Risk Assets Rallied

Gold holds the line after volatile week; strong jobs data nixes hopes for big Fed rate cut

Gold has finally broken through resistance in Swiss francs, setting a new monthly closing record in September.

Gold Breakout In CHF: UBS Recommends Allocating 5% Of Your Portfolio To The Yellow Metal

Gold, Silver and the miners closed the week mixed after Monday, which was a strong monthly and quarterly close for the sector. We review the near-term outlook for Gold, Silver & the miner ETFs.

Strong Quarterly & Monthly Closes For Gold, Silver & Miners

Metal Markets Report For Friday, Oct 4

Investment banks are setting higher targets for gold as monetary warning signs flash faster.

Gold Projected To Hit Higher Highs

AAAU

COPX

GDXJ

GLDM

NUGT

OUNZ

PHYS

PPLT

PSLV

RIVN

SGOL

SILJ

WYNN

<img decoding="async" style="height: 382px; width: 700px;" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/2024-07-23_08h48_24.png" alt="" />
本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。
<h4>投機的なセンチメント</h4>
以下の点に注目：
<ul>
<li>この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。</li>
<li>投機的なセンチメントは株式市場の主要なドライバーの一つである。
<ul>
<li>投機的なセンチメントが現在非常に高い水準にある。</li>
<li>ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシー vs 電気自動車の戦いが予想される。この戦いの結果は、投機的なセンチメントに大きな影響を与えるか、あるいは取り除くかに関わる。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>チャートによると、TSLA株はガンマ・スクイーズがかかり急騰している。ガンマ・スクイーズはウォール街の重要なメカニズムである。投資家はウォール街のメカニズムについて学ぶことで大きな利得を得ることができる。</li>
<li>チャートは、TSLA株の抵抗ゾーンとサポートゾーンを示している。</li>
<li>チャートのRSIによると、TSLA株は過剰買い気味になっている。これにより、TSLA株が上昇するのを容易にする。</li>
<li>テスラの決算発表後の戦いが株式の主要な決定要因となるだろう。本日の取引の終了後にテスラは決算を発表する。</li>
<li>イーロン・マスクは、テスラの株主の一部にヒューマノイドロボット、ロボタクシー、AIにフォーカスするように働きかけることに成功した。マスク氏の株主基盤の再構築に成功したにもかかわらず、テスラ株の大部分の株主は引き続き同社の電気自動車部門に焦点を当てている。</li>
<li>電気自動車事業は引き続き弱く、さらに弱くなる可能性が高い。</li>
<li>マスク氏は、テスラがヒューマノイドロボットを生産しており、これらは来年テスラで稼働すると語った。
<ul>
<li>テスラは2026年から他社にヒューマノイドロボットを販売することを目指している。</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>テスラのロボタクシーイベントは8月から10月に延期された。ロボタクシーに関するさらなる煽りと目を見張るような予測を期待していい。</li>
<li>決算発表後、電気自動車に焦点を当てる人々と、ヒューマノイドロボットとロボタクシーに焦点を当てる人々との間で戦いが繰り広げられる。この戦いの結果は、TSLA株だけでなく、株式市場全体のセンチメントにも影響を及ぼすだろう。</li>
<li>重要な決算の中で、ジェネラル・モーターズ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>）、ゼネラル・エレクトリック（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>）、コカ・コーラ（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>）、ロッキード・マーティン（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>）、SAP（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAP#NYSE">SAP</a>）、Spotify Technology SA（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPOT#NYSE">SPOT</a>）が予想を上回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>ユナイテッド・パーセル・サービス（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>）とNXPセミコンダクターズ（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXPI#NASDAQ">NXPI</a> ）は予想を下回る決算を発表した。</li>
<li>S&amp;P500の企業のうち、約25％が今週決算を発表している。</li>
<li>株式市場は、カマラ・ハリスが大統領指名を獲得するために必要な代議員を確保したというニュースに大きな反応を見せている。しかし多くの市場関係者は、この興奮は一時的なものだと考えている。</li>
</ul>
<h4>インド</h4>
インドは引き続き最も優れた長期投資機会の一つである。フルディスクロージャーとして、インドに焦点を当てたファンドであるFairfax India Holdings Corp（OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFXDF#OTC">FFXDF</a>）は The Arora Report の ZYX Buy Model Portfolio に含まれている。インドにフォーカスした3つのETF、WisdomTree India Earnings Fund（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EPI#NYSE">EPI</a>）、iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF（BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMIN#BATS">SMIN</a>）、VanEck India Growth Leaders ETF（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLIN#NYSE">GLIN</a>）が The Arora Reportの ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio に含まれている。
インドの株式にとって、中央政府の予算は常に大きなイベントとなる。この度発表された予算は、長期的には素晴らしいものだが、短期的には、キャピタルゲイン税が増えたことによって投資家が慄いている。短期キャピタルゲインには20％の税率、長期キャピタルゲインには12.5％の税率が適用される。
<h4>投資の賢者の７つの流れ</h4>
早朝の取引では、Tesla Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>）のマネーフローはプラスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、Apple Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>）、Amazon.com, Inc.（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>）、Alphabet Inc Class C（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>）、Meta Platforms Inc（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>）、およびMicrosoft Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>）のマネーフローは中立的なものである。
早朝の取引では、NVIDIA Corp（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
早朝の取引では、SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）とInvesco QQQ トラスト シリーズ1（NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）のマネーフローはマイナスに傾いている。
<h4>株式のモモ・クラウドとスマートマネー</h4>
SPYとQQQのマネーフローを知ることで、投資家は利点を得ることができる。株式、金、および原油の買いがスマートマネーによって行われたタイミングを知ることで、投資家はさらなる利点を得ることができる。金にとって最も一般的なETFは、SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）である。銀にとって最も一般的なETFは、iShares Silver Trust（NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）である。原油にとって最も一般的なETFは、アメリカン・オイル・ファンド（ASCA:USO）である。
<h4>ビットコイン</h4>
ビットコインの大口投資家は、ビットコイン（暗号通貨: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）を月面まで駆け上がらせる野心的なトランプの噂に取り組んでいる。その噂とは、トランプが、ビットコインを国家的な戦略準備金にすることができるというものだ。なお、トランプは、これに先立ち、ビットコインを100％ハイプした2024年の会議（およびそのラウンドテーブルイベント）に投資家を招待している。トランプはこの会議に対して、1人当たり84.5万ドルの費用を支払うことが条件となっている。
<h4>保護バンドと今後の対応</h4>
投資家にとっては、前方を見ることが、後方を見ることよりも重要である。
良質な、非常に長期のポジションを維持することを検討してみるのも一つの方法である。個々のリスク選好に基づき、現金あるいは国債、あるいは短期の戦術的取引、または短期から中期のヘッジ取引を含む保護バンドを考慮することも重要だ。これは自己を保護するための良い方法であり、反対に利益を伸ばすことができる。
投資家は、ヘッジと現金を合算することで、自己の保護バンドを確定することができる。高い保護バンドは、年配者または保守的な投資家に適している。低い保護バンドは、若い投資家または積極的な投資家に適している。もしヘッジを行わない場合、現金の合計額は上記よりも多く、しかしそれ以上にヘッジを行った場合よりも現金の合計額は少ない。
保護バンドが0％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に楽観的であり、投資家は現金を0％保有し、100％の資産を株式に投資することを選択したことを意味する。一方で保護バンドが100％の場合、その時点での市場予測は非常に悲観的であり、投資家はヘッジまたはショートセリングの方法で自己を保護しようと決意したことを意味する。
新たな機会を活用するには、十分な現金を保有していなければならない。これは投資家にとって非常に重要なポイントである。ヘッジレベルを調整する際には、株式ポジション（ETF以外）の部分的なストップ数量を調整することを検討する。また、残りの数量に対して幅の広いストップを使用すること、およびハイベータ株に対してもっとスペースを与えることを検討することも重要だ。なお、ハイベータ株とは、市場よりも個

中東で再び緊張が高まっており、イスラエルの戦争内閣は国の対応を熟慮するために月曜日に開会し、<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">市場に衝撃を与えました。</a>
イスラエルがイランに対する報復策を検討しているという見出しにより、株式市場は急落し、金の価格が急騰しました。
何が起こったのか：チャンネル12は、イスラエルの内閣がイランに「明確で力強い」対応することを決定したと発表し、これはイスラエルが「このような大規模な攻撃を受けても無反応でいることは許さない」というイスラエルの信号を意味しています。
イスラエルの国防大臣ヨアブ・ガランは、イランがイスラエルに対する直接攻撃を繰り返すことを耐えかねると米国国防長官ロイド・オースティンに伝えましたが、この対応は中東全体を巻き込むような地域全体の紛争に発展することを回避します。 
国家安全保障会議報道官のジョン・カービーは、イランの攻撃を「壮大で恥ずべき失敗」と表現し、今日の「世界の多くはイスラエルとともに立っている」と強調しました。
先週日曜日、G7首脳会議は、イランのミサイル計画に対する新たな制裁を検討しており、イスラエルを支持しつつ、さらなるエスカレーションを防ぎたいと考えています。 
バランスのとれたアプローチを提唱する国務長官アントニー・ブリンケンは、「力と知恵は同じコインの異なる面でなければならない」と述べ、状況を慎重にかつ断固として処理することを示唆しました。ブリンケンはまた、地域のパートナーとの継続的な協議を確認し、外交努力を約束します。
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米国はイスラエルを支援することを約束しています。イランによるイスラエルへの前代未聞の攻撃に続き、我々は外交的な対応を調整し、エスカレーションを防ごうとしています。 <a href="https://t.co/9gW2gC8Y5s">pic.twitter.com/9gW2gC8Y5s</a>
&mdash; Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) <a href="https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1779940420174155836?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">2024年4月15日</a></blockquote>
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一方、中国は国連で、イランの行動をイスラエルの侵略に対する正当防衛として擁護する一方で、対照的な意見を述べました。 「イランには自衛権があります。イスラエルは国際法に違反してイラン領事館を攻撃しました。イランは反応し、自国の法的権利を行使しました」と述べました。 
なぜ重要なのか：米欧の同盟国は、世界的な影響を持つような地域全体の戦争の拡大を避けるようイスラエルに何度も警告しています。 
人的被害の観点でのみならず、イランとイスラエルの間の戦争の経済的影響は、世界経済にとって極めて破壊的であると言えます。
最初のリスクの1つは、原油価格の上昇に関連するものです。イランの原油生産は現在、世界供給の約3.4mb/d（3.3％）に上昇しています。
ゴールドマン・サックスによると、現在世界の17%の原油生産が流れているホルムズ海峡の原油の流れが途絶すると、1か月で原油価格が20%上昇し、途絶が数か月間続くと、最終的には2倍になります。 
市場の反応 SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）は米国東部時間3:00pm現在、1.2％下落し、2か月ぶりの最低水準でのクローズを予想しています。
先週金曜日の損失率1.8％に追随した形で、米国株中心のInvesco QQQ トラスト（NASDAQ：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）は1.6％低下しました。 
不動産セレクトセクター SPDR トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>）は2.1％ダウンし、リアルタイムで総合株指数において最大の損失を記録しました。 
仮想通貨市場は一段と悪化し、仮想通貨は大損を報告しました。 ビットコイン（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は6％下落し、62400ドルとなりました。 イーサリアム（CRYPTO：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>）は、4.1％下落し、3024ドルとなりました。
一方、ゴールド（金）やシルバーは急激に上昇し、投資家たちはこぞって安全な資産に逃避しました。
SPDR ゴールド トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）は1.5％上昇し、史上最高のクローズを記録しました。 シルバーは、2月2021年以来の最高値でのクローズを目指し、2.9％上昇しました、というのも iShares シルバー トラスト（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>）が報じています。
原油は、米国の早い時間帯の損失を取り消し、西テキサス中間原油はバレル85ドルを超える急騰を見せました。米国石油基金（United States Oil Fund）（NYSE：<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>）は0.1％上昇しました。 
チャート：2024年4月15日におけるSLV、GLD、USO、SPY、QQQ、BTCの株価
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-292577" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15150756/image-79.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
今すぐ読む: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38239994/financial-markets-on-edge-as-oil-and-gold-prices-could-soar-amid-rising-israel-iran-tensions">イスラエルとイランの緊張が高まる中、原油と金の価格が急騰する可能性があるため、金融市場は緊迫している</a>
写真：シャッターストック
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