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The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.

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８月３日（水）午前８時３０分（米国東部時間）に公表される消費者物価指数（CPI）速報に先駆け、主要指数先物は神経質な値動きを示している。債券利回りは消費者物価指数発表前に低下している。今回の報告が価格圧力の緩和が続いていることを確認した場合、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）は利上げを余儀なくされる可能性がある。経済学者やストラテジストは、FRB総裁のジェローム・パウエル氏が今月末に予定されている＜ジャクソンホール・シンポジウム＞で、利上げ見通しについてさらに明確な見解を示すと予想している。

ウォール・ストリート　主要先物指数が反応

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本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。投機的なセンチメント以下の点に注目：この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。

ヒューマロイドロボットの競争激化　市場は投機的に

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ウォール街のベテラン投資家、エド・ヤーデニ氏は、景気後退がもはや不安要素ではないと考えている一方で、悲観的なセンチメントの消失は、牛相場の持続性に対する逆張りのシグナルとなるだろうと警告しました。

ウォール街投資家エド・ヤーデニー　経済データを分析

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<a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/secretary-of-the-treasury-janet-l-yellen-sends-letter-to-congressional-leadership-on-the-debt-limit" title="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/secretary-of-the-treasury-janet-l-yellen-sends-letter-to-congressional-leadership-on-the-debt-limit">https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/secretary-of-the-treasury-janet-l-yellen-sends-letter-to-congressional-leadership-on-the-debt-limit</a>

Macro Economic Events

Secretary Of The Treasury Janet L. Yellen Sends Letter To Congressional Leadership On The Debt Limit; Alerts Congress Of Approaching Debt Limit, Initiates Extraordinary Measures Starting Jan 21; Urges Action To Protect U.S. Credit

The price of Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43053452/dogecoin-rallies-10-to-41-cents-how-high-can-doge-go">is rallying ahead</a> of Donald Trump's inauguration, set to take place on Monday, Jan. 20.
Dogecoin, launched in 2013, experienced its most memorable <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/21/12/24814327/2021-was-the-year-of-dogecoin-a-month-by-month-retrospective-with-top-stories">year yet in 2021.</a>
As Dogecoin gains in 2025, here's a look back at how much investors could have made by investing in the coin at the start of 2021, when social media buzz, Google Trends spikes, and new exchange listings fueled its rapid rise.
What Happened:&nbsp;Dogecoin became a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/12/36098489/much-wow-dogecoin-celebrates-10-years-looking-back-looking-ahead-for-the-good-boi-cryptocu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">huge storyline in 2021</a>&nbsp;with public figures like&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;and&nbsp;Mark Cuban&nbsp;generating support and posting positive thoughts about the crypto on social media.
In early January, Dogecoin emerged as a popular topic across social media platforms and experienced an uptick in Google Trends.
Later in 2021, demand for Dogecoin led to more cryptocurrency exchanges adding the coin to their platform, making it easier than ever for investors to buy and hold Dogecoin. Frequently, the addition of Dogecoin to a new exchange or an announcement of its impending inclusion has triggered a price surge for the cryptocurrency.
Throughout 2021, tweets from Musk would result in heightened trading activity and a rise in Dogecoin&#8217;s price.
Dogecoin hit many all-time highs throughout 2021, peaking at $0.7376 in May 2021, which came around the time Musk was the featured guest host of an episode of "Saturday Night Live."
Investors who bought Dogecoin shortly before the SNL episode aired or in the latter part of 2021 may be down on their current position.
Here's a look at how investors who got in early, back at the start of 2021 when Dogecoin was a major trending topic, have fared.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/25/01/43063679/if-you-invested-100-in-shiba-inu-when-the-coin-launched-heres-how-much-youd-have-today-2">If You Invested $100 In Shiba Inu When The Coin Launched, Here&#8217;s How Much You&#8217;d Have Today</a>
Investing $1,000 in Dogecoin:&nbsp;Investors who saw Dogecoin trending on social media as the new year kicked off and placed a small bet on the cryptocurrency continuing its momentum would have been pleasantly rewarded.
Dogecoin opened for trading on Jan. 1, 2021 at $0.00468 and hit a high of $0.005685 on that day. A $1,000 investment at the time could have purchased 175,901.50 DOGE based on the highest price that day.
The $1,000 investment in Dogecoin would be worth $73,474.06 today, based on a price of $0.4177 for Dogecoin at the time of writing. This represents a hypothetical return of 7,247.4%% over the last three-plus years.
At its peak price of $0.7376, the $1,000 investment in Dogecoin would have been worth $129,744.95.
For comparison, the same $1,000 invested in the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 Index, would be worth $1,714.80 today. This represents a return of 71.5% over the same time period. &nbsp;
Whether an investor sold during the run-up to all-time highs or is currently holding, if they bought Dogecoin in early 2021, they are likely saying "Much Wow."
What's Next: There is optimism within the cryptocurrency industry that Donald Trump as president will send coin prices higher, with many cryptos hitting new all-time highs after the 2024 presidential election outcome.
A<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41758045/dogecoin-jumps-on-election-day-poll-asks-if-trump-or-harris-victory-will-spark-2025-rally"> previous Benzinga poll</a> found that 72% of respondents believed Trump would be more favorable for the future of Dogecoin, compared to 28% for presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
A <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/12/42607398/dogecoin-down-17-in-one-month-will-meme-crypto-reach-25-cents-or-69-cents-first-78-of-readers-say">December poll asked </a>Benzinga readers if Dogecoin was more likely to reach 25 cents or 69 cents first. The large majority (78%) of respondents selected 69 cents as the option compared to 22% who selected 25 cents.
Dogecoin traded between 15 cents and 18 cents on Nov. 5, 2024, the day of the U.S. presidential election. Like many cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin gained in the day and weeks after Trump's victory.
Over the last year, Dogecoin has traded between $0.07515 and $0.4835, with the yearly high hit in December. In the last month, Dogecoin has traded between $0.2644 and $0.4205, with the monthly high hit on Friday.
The cryptocurrency industry will be closely monitoring how the sector responds after Trump is inaugurated. 
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/11/41908812/if-you-invested-100-in-dogecoin-when-the-meme-coin-launched-heres-how-much-youd-have-today">If You Invested $100 In Dogecoin When The Meme Coin Launched, Here&#8217;s How Much You&#8217;d Have Today</a></li>
</ul>
This article was previously published by Benzinga and has been updated.
Photo: Shutterstock

Education

$DOGE

If You Invested $1,000 In Dogecoin On Jan. 1, 2021, Here's How Much You'd Have Today

Market Summary

General

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

SNAP

Benzinga Market Summary: Indexes Rise Ahead Of Trump Inauguration, Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Law, China Meets 2024 GDP Growth Target

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/cbs-owner-discusses-settling-trump-suit-with-merger-review-on-tap-a5916925" title="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/cbs-owner-discusses-settling-trump-suit-with-merger-review-on-tap-a5916925">https://www.wsj.com/business/media/cbs-owner-discusses-settling-trump-suit-with-merger-review-on-tap-a5916925</a>

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PARA

"CBS Owner Discusses Settling Trump Suit, With Merger Review On Tap; Trump Seeking $10B In Suit Over '60 Minutes' Harris Interview; FCC Signals Tough Review Of Paramount Merger With Skydance" - WSJ

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-01-17-2025/card/white-house-adviser-u-s-achieved-a-very-very-soft-landing--a9yxVaG9uNuoBwqQiUke">https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-01-17-2025/card/white-house-adviser-u-s-achieved-a-very-very-soft-landing--a9yxVaG9uNuoBwqQiUke</a>
&nbsp;
The U.S. economy has successfully achieved a soft landing, with inflation returning to more normal levels while the labor market grows steadily, said Lael Brainard, the director of the White House National Economic Council, in an interview Thursday.
Two years ago, many forecasters or models would have taken the current economic backdrop—inflation close to 2.5% in the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, 4.1% unemployment and growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product between 2% and 3%—and said, "Well, that's just not feasible," said Brainard. "Most people would have put a very, very high degree of skepticism on the outcome that we actually received."
Brainard said even though inflation isn't all the way back to the Fed's 2% target, looking broadly over many business cycles, "any definition of a soft landing" would consider the current episode, where inflation has fallen from a peak of more than 7% in 2022, to be a "very, very soft landing."
"What I think is tough is some prices are higher now, and that is genuinely hard for people, but it is not the case that inflation is high," she said.
Of course, the economic achievement that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-state-of-the-union-2024/card/biden-brags-about-strong-economy-but-voters-aren-t-feeling-it-Cp8UwpUMx1zhpqS9wDaM">President Biden had effectively promised</a> in his State of the Union address one year ago didn't do enough to help Democrats, including Vice President Kamala Harris, at the ballot box last November.
Brainard said frustration over the pandemic and the inflation that followed the reopening of the economy had made voters in the U.S. and in many other countries across the world eager to vote for change.
"From the point of view of where the forecasts were, this economy has just outperformed on every dimension," said Brainard. "Now in terms of how people feel, of course that's very different because people in the middle-to-lower half of the income distribution are very sensitive to actual prices and particularly prices of things that they have to buy frequently."

Director Of The White House National Economic Council Lael Brainard Says "The U.S. Economy Has Successfully Achieved A Soft Landing, With Inflation Returning To More Normal Levels While The Labor Market Grows Steadily" - WSJ

Risk appetite surged on Wall Street at the end of the week, with investors ramping up stock purchases ahead of Monday's market closure for Martin Luther King Day, which is also when Donald Trump will be sworn in as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">the 47th U.S. president.</a>
All major indices posted robust gains in midday trading, setting up for their strongest weekly performance since early November. Broad-based buying lifted every sector into the green, underscoring the strength of the rally.
Adding to the positive mood, the Israeli Security Cabinet approved a ceasefire deal with Hamas <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43055426/oil-dips-as-israeli-security-cabinet-approves-gaza-ceasefire-yet-experts-warn-red-sea-risks-persist">in Gaza</a>, leaving final government approval as the last step before the agreement takes effect on Sunday.
Chipmaker Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) soared 8.9%, marking its biggest single-day jump since August 2024. The rally was fueled by rumors that the company could be a takeover target. 
Treasury yields edged higher but remained on track for steep weekly declines, following a softer-than-expected December inflation report that eased concerns over aggressive Federal Reserve policy.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.3% on Friday but is still slightly lower for the week, potentially snapping a six-week winning streak.
Gold prices steadied after Thursday's strong rally, while oil prices extended their decline as ceasefire efforts gained traction.
Cryptocurrency sentiment surged, driven by speculation that the incoming Trump administration could announce the creation of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43062518/2025-to-see-dogecoin-etf-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-microstrategy-of-ethereum-predicts-crypto-hedge-fund">a Bitcoin Reserve Fund.</a> Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was up 5% to over $105,000. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,483.46</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,013.18</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,641.72</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,279.34</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:45 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011525&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 1.2% to $598.98.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 1.1% to $436.12.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rallied 1.8% to $522.24.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 0.7% to $226.01.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 1.8%; the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, down 0.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TFC#NYSE">TFC</a>) rallied nearly 5% in reaction to stronger-than-expected quarterly results. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Schlumberger N.V. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLB#NYSE">SLB</a>), up 7.9%; Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAST#NASDAQ">FAST</a>), up 0.64%; State Street Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STT#NYSE">STT</a>), down 3%; Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HBAN#NASDAQ">HBAN</a>), up 0.39%; Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RF#NYSE">RF</a>), down 0.86% and Citizens Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CFG#NYSE">CFG</a>), up 1.8%.</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43062563/imf-lifts-us-growth-outlook-betting-markets-raise-odds-on-trump-led-economic-boom">IMF Lifts US Growth Outlook, Betting Markets Raise Odds On Trump-Led Economic Boom</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Government

Mid Cap

Commodities

Global

FAST

HBAN

INTC

Wall Street Roars Ahead Of Trump's Inauguration, Intel Rallies, Bitcoin Tops $105,000: What's Driving Markets Friday?

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count -2 To 478; U.S. Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Coun -2 To 98 t; U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 580

Politics

ORCL

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew Posts TikTok Saying "Grateful And Pleased To Have Support Of A President Who Truly Understands Our Platform"

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/irs-commissioner-to-quit-as-trump-takes-office-5f15f488">https://www.wsj.com/politics/irs-commissioner-to-quit-as-trump-takes-office-5f15f488</a>
WASHINGTON—IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said he would resign with nearly three years left in his term, leaving the government Monday rather than waiting for President-elect <a href="https://www.wsj.com/topics/person/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> to remove him.&nbsp;
Werfel's decision to quit on Inauguration Day sidesteps a looming confrontation between the tax agency chief and the incoming administration. Trump last month announced his <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/who-is-billy-long-irs-trump-57b4ccaa?mod=article_inline">plan to replace Werfel</a> with Billy Long, a former Republican congressman. But until now, Werfel hadn't said whether he would leave or try to stay until Long's confirmation, at which point Werfel would be forced out.&nbsp;

'IRS Commissioner To Quit As Trump Takes Office; Danny Werfel, Biden's Pick To Transform The Tax Agency, Plans Exit After Trump Announces Intent To Replace Him' - WSJ

The U.S. economy is defying expectations, and the International Monetary Fund <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">is taking notice.</a>
With strong consumer demand, supportive financial conditions, and a shifting policy landscape, the IMF now sees U.S. growth accelerating in 2025. Europe and China, meanwhile, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/02/37267095/chinas-economic-instability-worsens-and-heads-towards-2008-era-conditions-like-the-u-s-financial-cri">struggle to gain momentum</a>.
Betting markets are also adjusting, pricing in higher odds of an economic boom under a second Trump term.
In its January update to the flagship World Economic Outlook, published Friday, the Washington-based institution raised its 2025 U.S. growth projection by 0.5 percentage points to 2.7%, the highest upward revision among major economies. 
By contrast, the eurozone saw a 0.2 percentage-point downgrade to 1% growth. Germany's forecast slashed by 0.5 percentage points to a sluggish 0.3%. China's outlook improved only marginally, ticking up 0.1 percentage points to 4.7%.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42781668/trump-administration-will-be-an-unpredictability-machine-economists-warn-maganomics-could-hinder-lon">Trump &#8216;Unpredictability Machine&#8217; Doesn&#8217;t Bode Well, Economists Warn &#8216;Maganomics&#8217; Could Hinder Long-Term Growth</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Economy Set For Another Strong Year Of Growth</h3>
&#8220;Momentum in the United States remained robust, with the economy expanding at a rate of 2.7% in year-over-year terms in the third quarter, powered by strong consumption,&#8221; the IMF said.
The strength is driven by a resilient consumer, looser financial conditions, and a surging stock market.
The S&amp;P 500 index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — has rallied by 50% over the past two years.
The IMF highlighted additional upside growth risks, including fiscal stimulus and deregulation. 
&#8220;Looser fiscal policy in the United States, driven by new expansionary measures such as tax cuts, could boost economic activity in the near term,&#8221; the report said. 
It also indicated that &#8220;confidence and positive sentiment in the United States, partly driven by deregulation, could boost both the demand and the supply side of the economy.&#8221;
Yet, the Washington-based also signaled caution. &#8220;Excessive rollback of regulations designed to put limits on risk-taking and debt accumulation may generate boom-bust dynamics for the United States in the longer term,&#8221; it wrote.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Betting Markets Are Betting On A Trump Boom</h3>
Betting markets as tracked by CFTC-regulated Kalshi show a 17% chance of a U.S. recession in 2025, which represents a steep drop from mid-2024 levels.
The shift in sentiment has coincided with Trump's victory at the November presidential election, as investors expect fresh stimulus policies, including deregulation and tax cuts.
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/RECSSNBER-25/markets/RECSSNBER-25?color_scheme=dark&#038;widget_size=large" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0" /></iframe>
A key question is whether a true economic boom could emerge. 
Kalshi shows a 56% probability that at least one quarter between 2025 and 2028 will see GDP growth exceed 5%. That outcome would signal an unusually strong expansion.
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXGDPUSMAX-28/markets/KXGDPUSMAX-28-5?color_scheme=dark&#038;widget_size=large" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0" /></iframe>
Current betting-market pricing on GDP growth appears instead more conservative, with traders estimating 2025 growth at 2.4%. 
Kalshi's markets offer a payout of $5 per dollar wagered for those betting on growth between 2.6% and 3%. It&#8217;s a range that would align with the IMF's 2.7% forecast.
<iframe loading="lazy" style="border: 0;" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXGDPYEAR-25?color_scheme=dark&amp;widget_size=large" width="552px" height="400px"></iframe>
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/43041207/5-things-investors-need-to-know-about-scott-bessents-economic-policies-as-he-faces-senate-grilling-for-treasury-job">5 Things Investors Need To Know About Scott Bessent&#8217;s Economic Policies As He Faces Senate Grilling For Treasury Job</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

IMF Lifts US Growth Outlook, Betting Markets Raise Odds On Trump-Led Economic Boom

Crypto
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43053452/dogecoin-rallies-10-to-41-cents-how-high-can-doge-go">Dogecoin Rallies 10% To 41 Cents: How High Can DOGE Go?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43053129/bitcoin-miners-consolidate-power-12-firms-now-control-30-of-network-hash-rate">Bitcoin Miners Consolidate Power: 12 Firms Now Control 30% Of Network Hash Rate</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/43047964/litecoin-surges-12-after-analyst-says-altcoin-most-likely-to-have-next-etf-after-bitcoin-ethereum">Litecoin Surges 12% After Analyst Says Altcoin Most Likely To Have Next ETF After Bitcoin, Ethereum</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/43047598/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-steady-as-market-expects-trumps-pro-crypto-bonanza-analyst-says-btc-could-hit-all-time-high-if-it-breaks-this-resistance">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Steady As Market Expects Trump&#8217;s Pro-Crypto Bonanza: Analyst Says BTC Could Hit All-Time High If It Breaks This Resistance</a></li>
</ul>
US Markets­­­­­­­­
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43051358/us-stock-likely-to-open-higher-ahead-of-trumps-inaugration-all-11-sectors-to-report-growing-profits-in-2025-says-analyst">US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Ahead of Trump&#8217;s Inaugration: All 11 Sectors To Report Growing Profits In 2025, Says Analyst</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43049530/sp-500-ends-three-session-win-streak-amid-decline-in-apple-nvidia-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">S&amp;P 500 Ends Three-Session Win Streak Amid Decline In Apple, Nvidia: Greed Index Remains In &#8216;Fear&#8217; Zone</a></li>
</ul>
US Politics
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/25/01/43054504/biden-commutes-sentences-of-nearly-2500-convicted-of-non-violent-drug-offenses-no-mention-of-cannabis-prisoners">Biden Commutes Sentences Of Nearly 2,500 Convicted of Non-Violent Drug Offenses, No Mention Of Cannabis Prisoners</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43049759/trump-administrations-pro-business-promises-boost-optimism-for-wells-fargo-heres-what-ceo-charles-scharf-said">Trump Administration&#8217;s Pro-Business Promises Boost &#8216;Optimism&#8217; For Wells Fargo: Here&#8217;s What CEO Charles Scharf Said</a></li>
</ul>
World Politics
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/01/43048422/janet-yellens-computer-hacked-by-chinese-hackers-attackers-obtain-law-enforcement-sensitive-data-by-targeting-us-treasury-department">Janet Yellen&#8217;s Computer Hacked By Chinese Hackers, Attackers Obtain &#8216;Law Enforcement Sensitive&#8217; Data By Targeting US Treasury Department</a></li>
</ul>
World Economy
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43055426/oil-dips-as-israeli-security-cabinet-approves-gaza-ceasefire-yet-experts-warn-red-sea-risks-persist">Oil Dips As Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Gaza Ceasefire, Yet Experts Warn Red Sea Risks Persist</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43051751/asia-markets-mixed-europe-advances-crude-oil-edges-higher-gold-dips-global-markets-today-while-us-slept">Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Advances, Natural Gas Dips &#8211; Global Markets Today While US Slept</a></li>
</ul>
Tech
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43055489/this-semtech-analyst-begins-coverage-on-a-bullish-note-here-are-top-5-initiations-for-friday">This Semtech Analyst Begins Coverage On A Bullish Note; Here Are Top 5 Initiations For Friday</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43054997/why-parazero-stock-is-gaining-today">Why ParaZero Stock Is Gaining Today</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43054693/magnificent-7-earnings-hinge-on-ai-payoff-analyst-flags-top-risks">Magnificent 7 Earnings Hinge On AI Payoff: Analyst Flags Top Risks</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43054648/wipro-q3-earnings-24-5-profit-jump-it-services-margins-hit-12-quarter-high-boosts-interim-dividend-payout-to-70">Wipro Q3 Earnings: 24.5% Profit Jump, IT Services Margins Hit 12-Quarter High, Boosts Interim Dividend Payout to 70%</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/43054383/amazon-lays-off-200-jobs-in-fashion-and-fitness-division-amid-nationwide-restructuring">Amazon Lays Off 200 Jobs In Fashion And Fitness Division Amid Nationwide Restructuring</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43053982/taiwan-semiconductor-chief-calls-us-semiconductor-sanctions-manageable-to-skip-trump-inauguration">Taiwan Semi Chief To Skip Trump Inauguration, Calls US Semiconductor Sanctions &#8216;Manageable&#8217;</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43053670/why-versus-systems-stock-are-rocketing-over-90-premarket-on-friday">Why Is Versus Systems Stock Rocketing Today</a>?</li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43052999/quantum-computing-stock-drops-over-3-during-friday-premarket-amid-fraud-allegations">Quantum Computing Stock Drops Over 3% During Friday Premarket Amid Fraud Allegations</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/gaming/25/01/43051841/nintendo-shares-drop-5-on-tokyo-exchange-after-switch-2-announcement">Nintendo Switch 2 Fails To Stir Excitement In Investors, Gaming Giant&#8217;s Shares Drop 5% In Tokyo</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43048211/qorvo-soars-7-after-hours-as-activist-investor-starboard-reportedly-takes-stake-in-semiconductor-company">Qorvo Soars 7% After Hours As Activist Investor Starboard Reportedly Takes Stake In Semiconductor Company</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/01/43047721/apple-cfo-denies-claims-of-75-profit-margins-on-app-store-i-wouldnt-say-theyre-accurate">Apple CFO Denies Claims Of 75% Profit Margins On App Store: &#8216;I Wouldn&#8217;t Say They&#8217;re Accurate</a></li>
</ul>
Electric Vehicle
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/43054613/whats-going-on-with-chinese-ev-maker-nio-stock-today">What&#8217;s Going On With Chinese EV Maker NIO Stock Today?</a></li>
<li><a href="Rivian%20Shares%20Surge%20Over%204%25%20In%20Friday%20Pre-Market%20Following%20$6.6%20Billion%20DOE%20Loan%20Agreement">Rivian Shares Surge Over 4% In Friday Pre-Market Following $6.6 Billion DOE Loan Agreement</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43050342/elon-musk-denies-teslas-involvement-in-fire-at-moss-landing-power-plant-in-monterey-county">Elon Musk Denies Tesla&#8217;s Involvement In Fire At Moss Landing Power Plant In Monterey County</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43049866/rivians-electric-vans-to-be-sold-to-non-amazon-customers-from-february-report">Rivian&#8217;s Electric Vans To Be Sold To Non-Amazon Customers From February: Report</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43048579/tesla-extends-free-lifetime-supercharging-offer-on-foundation-series-cybertruck-till-jan-end">Tesla Extends Free Lifetime Supercharging Offer On Foundation Series Cybertruck Till Jan End</a></li>
</ul>
Consumer
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/43053453/target-customers-just-looking-for-deals-stock-flashes-bearish-warnings-as-eps-guidance-unchanged-despite-record-holiday-sales">Target Customers Just Looking For Deals? Stock Flashes Bearish Warnings As EPS Guidance Unchanged Despite Record Holiday Sales</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43051842/ftc-bans-general-motors-from-sharing-driver-data-following-allegations-that-it-sold-sensitive-consumer-information">FTC Bans General Motors From Sharing Driver Data Following Allegations That It Sold Sensitive Consumer Information</a></li>
</ul>
Communication
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/25/01/43054401/duolingos-ai-powered-china-surge-impresses-bullish-analyst">Duolingo&#8217;s AI-Powered China Surge Impresses Bullish Analy</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43052360/sony-cancels-two-live-service-games-stays-committed-to-long-term-monetization">Sony Cancels Two Live-Service Games, Stays Committed to Long-Term Monetization</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/01/43050469/tesla-bull-ross-gerber-demands-tiktok-ban-calling-it-a-national-security-risk-amid-reports-that-elon-musk-may-buy-it">Tesla Bull Ross Gerber Demands TikTok Ban Calling It A &#8216;National Security Risk&#8217; Amid Reports That Elon Musk May Buy It</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/25/01/43049496/as-tiktok-faces-us-ban-vpn-searches-skyrocket-800-will-workarounds-work-experts-weigh-in">As TikTok Faces US Ban, VPN Searches Skyrocket 800%: Will Workarounds Work? Experts Weigh In</a></li>
</ul>
Industrial
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43054975/this-american-airlines-analyst-is-no-longer-bearish-here-are-top-5-upgrades-for-friday">This American Airlines Analyst Is No Longer Bearish; Here Are Top 5 Upgrades For Friday</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43054271/boeings-777x-takes-to-the-skies-again-after-grounding-over-engine-issue-report">Boeing Restarts 777X Testing After Grounding Over Engine Issue: Report</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43049428/tesla-says-it-is-working-on-a-more-comprehensive-cleaning-solution-for-cybertruck-rear-view-camera">Tesla Says It Is Working On A &#8216;More Comprehensive Cleaning Solution&#8217; For Cybertruck Rear View Camera</a></li>
</ul>
Healthcare
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43054519/zyn-nicotine-pouches-receive-fda-marketing-approval">ZYN Nicotine Pouches Receive FDA Marketing Approval</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/25/01/43053632/fda-approves-expanded-use-of-eli-lillys-ulcerative-colitis-drug-for-crohns-disease">FDA Approves Expanded Use Of Eli Lilly&#8217;s Ulcerative Colitis Drug For Crohn&#8217;s Disease</a></li>
</ul>
Space
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43052113/bezos-musk-extend-cordial-support-despite-building-rivalry-between-their-rocket-companies">Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk Extend Cordial Support Despite Building Rivalry Between Their Rocket Companies</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/space/25/01/43049377/spacex-starship-mishap-diverts-dozens-of-flights-as-faa-warns-of-falling-debris">SpaceX Starship Mishap Diverts Dozens Of Flights As FAA Warns Of Falling Debris</a></li>
</ul>
Energy
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43055401/schlumberger-posts-strong-q4-results-raises-dividend-and-buybacks-championx-deal-to-strengthen-future-growth">Schlumberger Q4: Earnings Beat, Dividend Boost, Offshore Boom And More</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/01/43053046/lundin-mining-caps-record-2024-with-transformative-growth">Lundin Mining Caps Record 2024 with &#8216;Transformative&#8217; Growth</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by Gaston Cerliani on Shutterstock

$ETH

Bitcoin Miners Consolidate With 12 Firms Controlling 30% Of Hash Rate; Rivian Shares Rise After $6.6B DOE Loan; SpaceX Starship Mishap Disrupts Flights As FAA Warns Of Debris – Top Headlines While The U.S. Slept

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-01-17_07h28_15-scaled.jpg" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.&nbsp;
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Five Factors Leading Stocks Higher</h4>
An enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the market is now above the breakout line but below the micro resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows there is buying in the early trade.</li>
<li>Bulls are buying aggressively in an attempt to break above the micro resistance zone.</li>
<li>The buying in the early trade is being driven by the following five factors:
<ul>
<li>Bonds are leading stocks higher.&nbsp; Bonds are moving higher due to negative positioning.</li>
<li>President Trump plans to make cryptos a national priority with an executive order.&nbsp; As a result, there is aggressive buying in cryptos.&nbsp; Buying in cryptos almost always leads to buying in speculative and junk stocks, and often tech stocks.&nbsp; This is exactly what is happening in the early trade today.</li>
<li>Monthly options expire today.&nbsp; Option expiration appears to be to the buy side.</li>
<li>Wall Street is making new bets on a Fed rate cut on January 29th.</li>
<li>There was concern that China would not meet its GDP target.&nbsp; There is a relief rally based on China Q4 GDP coming in line with expectations.&nbsp; Here is the data:
<ul>
<li>Q4 came in at 1.6% vs 1.6% consensus</li>
<li>For 2024 GDP came in at 5.0% vs 5.0% consensus</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Not helping the bulls is the market waking up to Apple's China problem.&nbsp; Yesterday, Apple experienced significant selling as the market woke up to the fact that Apple was losing market share in China.&nbsp; However, as an Arora Report reader, you knew in advance this was happening from our writings as early as Q3 of 2024.&nbsp; In the Morning Capsule of January 3, 2025 we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Apple&#8217;s (AAPL) iPhones are on the decline in China.&nbsp; Non-Chinese phone sales in China fell by 47.4% in November, making it the fourth month in a row of year-over-year decline.&nbsp; Apple is attempting to compete with Chinese phones like Huawei and reverse the declining trend with discounts up to $68.50 on the iPhone in China.
</blockquote>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Housing</h4>
Housing starts remain strong as builders subsidize mortgage rates.&nbsp; Here is the latest data:
<ul>
<li>Housing starts came in at 1.499M vs 1.381M consensus</li>
<li>Building permits came in at 1.483M vs 1.454M consensus</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc, Amazon.com, Inc., Alphabet Inc Class C, Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corp, NVIDIA Corp, and Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust.  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing aggressive buying on President Trump's plan to make crypto a national priority.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Stock Buying On Trump Plan To Make Crypto A National Priority, Option Expiration, New Fed Bets And China GDP

<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/politics/inauguration-moving-indoors-cold-weather/index.html">https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/politics/inauguration-moving-indoors-cold-weather/index.html</a>
&nbsp;
 President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration is expected to be moved indoors Monday due to dangerously cold temperatures projected in the nation's capital, multiple sources with direct knowledge of the plans told CNN.
Plans are underway to have Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance sworn into office inside the US Capitol Rotunda, the sources said. Discussions regarding where to hold the inaugural parade and other celebrations are still underway. However, Trump's team has been in talks to potentially hold some of the festivities at the Capitol One arena, where Trump will host a rally on Sunday.

'Trump's Inauguration Expected To Be Moved Indoors' - CNN

<a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113844584193010573" title="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113844584193010573">https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113844584193010573</a>

President-Elect Donald J. Trump Posts On Truth "The Supreme Court decision was expected, and everyone must respect it. My decision on TikTok will be made in the not too distant future, but I must have time to review the situation. Stay tuned!"

Billionaire Frank McCourt Says We Meet The Criteria Laid Out By The Supreme Court As To What's Required For TikTok Sale To Happen

The S&amp;P 500 Index and many stocks saw gains during Donald Trump's first term in the White House from 2017 to 2021. A new reader poll predicts how high the S&amp;P 500 will go in Trump's next four years in office as he heads back to the White House on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42995328/trump-inauguration-from-elon-musk-jeff-bezos-to-barack-obama-george-bush-and-bill-clinton-who-all-will-attend">Monday, Jan. 20.</a>
What Happened: Investors are weighing the impact of potential<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42988641/trump-wants-trade-partners-to-start-paying-announces-external-revenue-service-for-tariffs"> tariffs proposed by Trump</a> that could happen under his next presidential term.
The last time Trump was in office, stock markets saw strong returns, including a strong first-year performance for many stock market indices. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500,<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/10/41584466/these-10-stocks-were-the-best-s-p-500-performers-in-2017-when-trump-was-president-will-history-r"> was up 70% </a>during Trump's first term in the White House.
Benzinga recently asked if the returns for his next four-year term would be similar.
"What do you think the return will be from 2025 through 2029?&#8221;
The results were:
<ul>
<li>31% to 45%: 33%</li>
<li>0% to 15%: 24%</li>
<li>61% or More: 22%</li>
<li>46% to 60%: 13%</li>
<li>Will Decline: 8%</li>
</ul>
The winning vote getter was a range of 31% to 45%. This would equate to an average of around 7.8% to 11.3% annually. The S&amp;P 500 has an average annual return of around 10%, meaning readers see the index having average returns during Trump's upcoming time in the White House. 
Did You Know?
<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent011725">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
Why It's Important: Trump famously predicted there would be an economic downturn and the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38890222/biden-hands-out-big-l-to-trump-as-dow-hits-40k-for-first-time-and-ex-presidents-stock-market-cra">stock market would crash</a> if he did not win the 2020 presidential election.
While the economy saw turbulent times that had high inflation and worries for consumers during parts of President Joe Biden's time in the White House, stock market indices also hit all-time highs.
The Dow Jones and S&amp;P 500 each hit highs while Biden was in office, leading to the president clapping back at Trump's earlier prediction.
"Good one, Donald," Biden wrote in a post on X, sharing a campaign video that highlighted the stock market's record highs.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF is up 64.6% from Jan. 20, 2021 through Jan. 17, 2025 based on a price of $596.80 at the time of writing, making the return under Biden nearly the same as during Trump's first four years.
Here's a look at the returns by year for times when Biden and Trump were in office, with Biden inaugurated in 2021 and Trump inaugurated in 2017:
<ul>
<li>2024: +24.9%</li>
<li>2023: +26.2%</li>
<li>2022: -18.2%</li>
<li>2021: +28.8%</li>
<li>2020: +18.4%</li>
<li>2019: +31.2%</li>
<li>2018: -4.6%</li>
<li>2017: +21.7%</li>
</ul>
Along with anticipating how the stock market will do during Trump's next four years in the White House, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/01/43041374/exclusive-how-high-will-sp-500-go-under-donald-trump-in-2025-readers-are-optimistic-26-say-this">Benzinga recently asked</a>, "What do you think the return will be in 2025, his first year back?"
The results were:
<ul>
<li>16%+: 26%</li>
<li>11% to 15%: 22%</li>
<li>Will Decline: 22%</li>
<li>6% to 10%: 19%</li>
<li>0% to 5%:&nbsp;12%</li>
</ul>
The poll found the largest percentage believe the S&amp;P 500 Index will post gains of at least 16% in 2025. The 11% to 15% range came in second place at 22%.
It&#8217;s also worth pointing out that the S&amp;P 500 decline in 2025 was actually tied for second in the poll at 22%, which could mean 2025 is a make-or-break year.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43046693/biden-warns-of-musk-bezos-zuckerberg-oligarchy-but-is-he-to-blame-mark-cuban-says-president-pushed-them-all-into-the-arms-of-trump">Biden Warns Of Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg Oligarchy, But Is He To Blame? Mark Cuban Says President &#8216;Pushed Them All Into The Arms Of Trump&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Jan. 14, 2025 through Jan. 15, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 107 adults.
Image: Shutterstock

Exclusives

EXCLUSIVE: Can S&P 500 Repeat Large Gains From Donald Trump's First Term A Second Time Around? Readers Say This Return Range Most Likely

WIIM

Major indexes are higher ahead of the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Trump.

The crowd is scared, but smart money might be seeing an opportunity. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey just flashed a contrarian Buy signal, with bullish sentiment hitting its lowest level since <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/SPY/news">the S&amp;P 500</a>&#8216;s November 2023 bottom. 
Historically, extreme pessimism has been a strong indicator of future gains, and for SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) investors, this could be the moment to lean in.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Bearish Mood That Bulls Love</h2>
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) <a href="https://www.aaii.com/latest/article/249507-aaii-sentiment-survey-optimism-drops">survey</a> shows that only 25.4% of investors are bullish—far below the historical average of 37.5%. Meanwhile, bearish sentiment has jumped to 40.6%, its highest in a year. When the crowd is this fearful, market bottoms tend to form, making this a classic contrarian buy setup.
For SPY investors, the implications are clear: history suggests these extreme readings often mark a turning point. But technicals are sending mixed signals, creating a dilemma for those trying to time the next move.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43051358/us-stock-likely-to-open-higher-ahead-of-trumps-inaugration-all-11-sectors-to-report-growing-profits-in-2025-says-analyst">US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Ahead of Trump&#8217;s Inaugration: All 11 Sectors To Report Growing Profits In 2025, Says Analyst</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">SPY's Technical Setup: A Balancing Act</h2>
SPY has been on a tear over the past year, up 25.3%, but recent action suggests hesitation. 
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011725&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="629" height="487" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/17083328/Screenshot-2025-01-17-at-6.19.48-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-738983" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/17083328/Screenshot-2025-01-17-at-6.19.48-PM.png 629w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/17083328/Screenshot-2025-01-17-at-6.19.48-PM-300x232.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px" /></a></figure>
<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011725&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Chart created using Benzinga Pro</a>
Trading at around $591.64, it&#8217;s sitting above key moving averages, reinforcing a bullish trend. However, signs of selling pressure are emerging:
<ul>
<li>Short-term strength: The eight-day and 20-day moving averages signal a bullish trend, supporting further upside.</li>
<li>Longer-term caution: SPY is trading below its 50-day moving average of $595.08, hinting at potential weakness.</li>
<li>MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) says "proceed with caution": With a negative 1.95 reading, momentum indicators suggest a possible slowdown.</li>
<li>RSI (relative strength index) at 50.11: Neither overbought nor oversold, meaning SPY is at an inflection point.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Takeaway: Buy The Fear Or Sit Tight?</h2>
The AAII survey&#8217;s pessimistic reading suggests that fear is peaking, a historically bullish sign. But with SPY hovering near record highs and technicals flashing mixed signals, investors may need to balance optimism with caution. 
For contrarians, this could be a prime entry point. For others, waiting for a clearer technical setup might be the smarter move.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43049404/bull-markets-last-for-79-years-on-average-but-third-year-returns-can-be-weak-says-this-research-firm">Bull Markets Last For 7.9 Years On Average But Third-Year Returns Can Be Weak, Says This Research Firm</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Technicals

Signals

Widespread Investor Pessimism Could Signal S&P 500 Upside

Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) +0.9% vs +0.3% Est.; Prior +0.2%

USA Housing Starts For December 1.499M Vs 1.330M Est.; 1.289M Prior (Revised To 1.294M)

It looks like December 2024 problems have rolled over to early 2025. That being a "rolling correction" which doesn't move the needle much on the S&P 500 (SPY) but does spell problems for the broader market. Read on below for the full story... Often the early days of a new year set the tone for how the rest of the year will turn out. That is because so many investment managers have prepared for a shift in strategy that takes place to start the year.
The result on Thursday was heavy sector rotation which continues the rolling correction we saw forming in late 2024. I shared insights on the rolling correction back a couple weeks ago <a href="https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-is-the-stock-market-in-a-rolling-correction/">in this article.</a>
Today we will expand on this notion with the recent performance results. Even more important, we will talk about how to invest in this environment to enjoy superior results.
Market Outlook
I think the fastest way to get across the notion of a rolling correction is with this 1 month sector performance chart:
<img class="size-full wp-image-15164 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Sector-1-month-1-2-25.jpg" alt="" width="975" height="332" />
You will notice that most sectors are beyond the limits of a pullback nearing in on a full blow 10% correction. And yet the S&amp;P 500 (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/SPY/">SPY</a>) is only 3% off the highs.
On the surface that math doesn't add up until you understand that most of the Magnificent 7 are inside the Communication Services sector while some are in Technology. Those larger stocks barely budging while the rest of the market is selling off mode helps put the rolling correction concept into focus.
My <a href="https://www.wallstreetzen.com/blog/stock-market-outlook-webinar-replay/">2025 Stock Market Outlook</a> still looks on track. The main change from what I said in September is that I expected stocks to sprint into the finish line in 2024 leading to a sell off to start the year.
As it turns out that sell off (rolling correction) started in December and continues to start the new year. This should set up for an interesting shift in the investment landscape the rest of the year where..."One man's trash is another man's treasure". 
Meaning that the discarded stocks from this correction will become wonderful value opportunities for some longer term investors. There was some bargain shopping today. But even more will follow in the weeks ahead.
Most importantly, I think the 4 year reign of Mega Caps (and large caps for that matter) is over. Some of these stocks have straight up nose bleed valuations that are not supported by history. And yes, fairly close to "irrational exuberance" territory.
Thus, it was nice to see TSLA cough up another 6% Thursday and now down over 20% from the December peaks. This means that some well needed order and sanity is being returned to the investing world. Let's hope that continues.
This should lead to a rotation to find greater value elsewhere in the market. Gladly that can easily be found in small and mid caps with PEs under the historical norm at 15-16. That is more than a 30% discount from the PE level of the S&amp;P 500. And about half of the Mega Caps.
On top of that, I still think economically sensitive, Risk On groups are the place to be. Like the aforementioned Industrials and Basic Materials. On top of that would be those groups that benefit from lower rates like home builders, auto, and finance.
This formula certainly paid the bills on the first session in January...and believe will be the formula to outperform the rest of the year.
What To Do Next?
Discover my current portfolio of 10 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our exclusive POWR Ratings model. (Nearly 4X better than the S&amp;P 500 going back to 1999).
All of these hand selected picks are all based on my 44 years of investing experience seeing bull markets...bear markets...and everything between.
And right now this portfolio is beating the stuffing out of the market. 
If you are curious to learn more, and want to see my top 10 timely stock recommendations, then please click the link below to get started now.
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Steve Reitmeister's Trading Plan &amp; Top 10 Stocks &gt;</a>
Wishing you a world of investment success!
<img class="size-full wp-image-9357 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Reity.jpg" alt="" width="99" height="70" /> 
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced "Righty") 
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Editor, Reitmeister Total Return</a>

<hr />
SPY shares fell $0.35 (-0.06%) in after-hours trading Friday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 1.00%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index during the same period.
<hr><div style="clear:both;"></div> <h2>About the Author: Steve Reitmeister</h2> <img src='https:/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Screen-Shot-2019-07-23-at-2.05.03-PM.png' style="float:left; padding:5px;width:125px;">Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as "Reity". Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the <a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/" title="More info about Reitmeister Total Return portfolio">Reitmeister Total Return portfolio</a>. Learn more about Reity's background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.<a href="https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=steve-reitmeister">More...</a>The post <a href=https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-rolling-correction-for-stocks-in-2025/>Rolling Correction for Stocks in 2025?</a> appeared first on <a href=https://stocknews.com/>StockNews.com</a>

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