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８月３日（水）午前８時３０分（米国東部時間）に公表される消費者物価指数（CPI）速報に先駆け、主要指数先物は神経質な値動きを示している。債券利回りは消費者物価指数発表前に低下している。今回の報告が価格圧力の緩和が続いていることを確認した場合、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）は利上げを余儀なくされる可能性がある。経済学者やストラテジストは、FRB総裁のジェローム・パウエル氏が今月末に予定されている＜ジャクソンホール・シンポジウム＞で、利上げ見通しについてさらに明確な見解を示すと予想している。

ウォール・ストリート　主要先物指数が反応

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本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。投機的なセンチメント以下の点に注目：この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。

ヒューマロイドロボットの競争激化　市場は投機的に

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ウォール街のベテラン投資家、エド・ヤーデニ氏は、景気後退がもはや不安要素ではないと考えている一方で、悲観的なセンチメントの消失は、牛相場の持続性に対する逆張りのシグナルとなるだろうと警告しました。

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SPDR S&P 400 US MID CAP ETF

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Simplify Exchange Traded Funds Simplify US Equity PLUS Convexity ETF

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Bank Of Montreal MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETNs due October 30, 2043

SPDR Series Trust SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF

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The S&amp;P 500 Index, which is tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) continues to hit all-time highs with market optimism from investors and an interest rate cut sparking the potential for a strong end to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/09/40928301/interest-rates-in-free-fall-what-it-means-for-mortgages-credit-cards-and-your-wallet-a">the 2024 year.</a>
What Happened: For the first time since 2019, the S&amp;P 500 posted <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41110228/s-p-records-first-positive-september-since-2019-amid-improving-investor-sentiment-fear-index-moves-">a positive return</a> during September.
With three months left in the calendar year, investors see more optimism ahead.
"Is the S&amp;P 500 heading for a raging bull run or a devastating crash by the end of 2024?" Benzinga asked its readers.
Here are the results:
<ul>
<li>Raging Bull Run – It will finish the year above 6,000: 34%</li>
<li>Holding Steady – It will finish between 5,400-5,700: 51%</li>
<li>Devastating Crash – It&#8217;s dropping below 5,000: 16%</li>
</ul>
The poll found that the majority of people see the S&amp;P 500 Index holding steady to close out the year with year-to-date gains of more than 20% currently realized.
A large portion of readers see the S&amp;P 500 hitting new highs of over 6,000 by the end of the year then crashing back down to the 5,000 level last seen in May of this year.
Did You Know?
<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent100424">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
Why It's Important: The S&amp;P 500 is up 20.9% year-to-date at a current level of 5,733.46. Over the past 52 weeks, the well-known stock index has traded between 4,103.78 to 5,767.37.
Here's a look at the yearly returns for the index in recent years:
<ul>
<li>2023: +24.2%</li>
<li>2022: -19.4%</li>
<li>2021: +26.9%</li>
<li>2020: +16.3%</li>
<li>2019: +28.9%</li>
</ul>
The 2024 year also marks a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/23/12/36416440/why-buy-stocks-in-a-presidential-election-year-history-has-a-crazy-stat-for-you">presidential election year</a>, which has historically posted strong market performances. The S&amp;P 500 Index has been up 14 of the past 16 presidential years, with the only down years coming with the dot-com bubble (2000) and global financial crisis (2008).
The +20.9% performance currently ranks ahead of the last five presidential election years, shown below: 
<ul>
<li>2020: +18.4%</li>
<li>2016: +12.0%</li>
<li>2012: +16.0%</li>
<li>2008: -37.0%</li>
<li>2004: +10.9%</li>
</ul>
With a 20%+ return in 2024, the S&amp;P 500 would finish well above the average of +10.5% over the past 16 presidential election years.
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, 2024, and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 103 adults.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/24/09/41031059/after-fed-rate-cuts-is-tesla-nvidia-apple-or-amazon-the-best-investment-poll-reveals-top-magnif">After Fed Rate Cuts, Is Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, Or Amazon The Best Investment? Poll Reveals Top Magnificent 7 Stock</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Education

Exclusives

S&P 500 To End Year Over 6,000? 34% Of Benzinga Readers Predict 'Raging Bull Run'

Politics

General

Economic Advisor Brainard Says We Anticipate That Storm Devastation Will Affect Employment Statistics For That Month

White House Advisor Brainard Says There Is A Lot More Confidence That Interest Rates Are Coming Down And Inflation Is Down

U.S. Military Says It Conducted Strikes On 15 Houthi Targets In Houthi-Controlled Areas Of Yemen On Friday

White House Advisor Brainard Says We Don't Expect To See Any Effects On Our Economy Or For Consumers, Businesses And Farmers

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/trump-jamie-dimon-endorsement-jpmorgan.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter" title="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/trump-jamie-dimon-endorsement-jpmorgan.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter">https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/trump-jamie-dimon-endorsement-jpmorgan.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.PostToTwitter</a>

'Jamie Dimon denies Trump's claim that JPMorgan CEO has endorsed him' -CNBC Report

President Biden Says Sanctions On Iran Are Under Consideration Right Now

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4</a>

Macro Notification

iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market Index Fund

ISRA

Biden Says Israelis Have Not Concluded What They Are Going To Do About Iran's Strike; I Would Think About Other Alternatives To Striking Oil Fields; Netanyahu Should Remember That No Administration Has Helped Israel More; U.S. And Israeli Teams Are Constantly In Contact; They Are Not Going To Make Decision Immediately, Will Wait To See When They Want To Talk

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4">LIVE: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds a briefing with reporters — 10/4/2024</a>

President Biden Says Israelis Have Not Concluded What They Are Going To Do About Iran's Strike; Says I Would Think About Other Alternatives To Striking Oil Fields; Says Netanyahu Should Remember That No Administration Has Helped Israel More

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUAqm66ifq4</a>

President Biden Says Will Have To Deal With Unforeseen Cost Of Hurricane; Says Will Probably Have To Ask Congress For More Money To Deal With Problems

U.S. Official Says Military Carries Out Strikes Against Multiple Houthi Targets In Yemen

A stronger-than-expected September jobs report fueled gains on Wall Street, overshadowing investor concerns that had been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/24/10/41126038/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-middle-east-tensions-escalates-s-p-500-stocks-bitcoin-fall-as-oil">East earlier this week. </a>
The U.S. economy added 254,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, a significant jump from August's 159,000 and well above forecasts of 140,000. This marked the most robust employment growth since March 2024.
In addition, the unemployment rate dropped more than anticipated to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings also surpassed expectations, signaling a red-hot labor market.
Small-cap stocks outpaced their large-cap peers as worries about an economic slowdown subsided further. Meanwhile, traders adjusted their outlook for the Federal Reserve's November meeting, reducing the probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut from 30% to just 10% as the stronger jobs data diminished the need for a more aggressive policy move.
U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in response to the solid labor market data. The 2-year yield climbed by 20 basis points, while the 10-year yield increased by 12 basis points. 
Chinese equities continued their upward trajectory, driven by ongoing domestic stimulus measures. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FXI#NYSE">FXI</a>) reached levels last seen in February 2022, just before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Gold dipped 0.3% as the U.S. dollar strengthened and bond yields climbed. Oil prices extended their rally for the fourth consecutive session, with WTI crude hitting $75 per barrel during intraday trading.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) surged 2.2%, climbing to $62,000.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,203.80</td>
<td>1.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>19,932.47</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,727.63</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,146.54</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:35 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent100424&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> data: 
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.5% to $570.47.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.3% higher to $421.66.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose 0.7% to $484.95.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 1.2% to $218.77.</li>
<li>The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) outperformed, up 1.2%. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Semiconductor stocks rallied, with Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) leading gains, up over 4%. </li>
<li>Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIVN#NASDAQ">RIVN</a>) fell over 4% on a quarterly revenue miss. </li>
<li>Spirit Airlines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAVE#NYSE">SAVE</a>) tumbled 26%, amid bankruptcy discussions with creditors following the failed merger with JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBLU#NASDAQ">JBLU</a>). Peers such as American Airlines Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NYSE">AAL</a>) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) rallied on the news, up by 5.4% and 3.6%, respectively. </li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41187740/blowout-september-jobs-report-spurs-reactions-6-economists-say-aggressive-fed-rat">&#8216;Blowout&#8217; September Jobs Report Spurs Reactions: 6 Economists Say Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts May Face Obstacles</a>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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Macro Economic Events

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SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

JBLU

RIVN

SAVE

XLRE

Wall Street Rallies, Small Caps Outperform On Strong Jobs Report, Chinese Stocks Soar To 32-Month Highs: What's Driving Markets Friday?

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count -5 To 479 Vs 484	Prior; U.S. Baker Hughes NatGas Rig Count +3 At 102; 	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585 Vs 587 Prior

Vice President Harris Will Meet With A Small Group Of Arab American Leaders In Flint, Michigan On Friday; VP Harris Will Meet Leaders From The Muslim Advocacy Group Emgage, The American Task Force For Lebanon And Hala Hijazi, Who Lost Dozens Of Family Members In Gaza

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-04_08h45_45.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Barn Burner Jobs Report</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-jobs-report-spy-mc-10042024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is rallying on the jobs report.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The just released jobs report is a barn burner. The report is a lot stronger than the consensus.&nbsp; Here are the details of the jobs report:
<ul>
<li>Nonfarm payrolls came at 254K vs. 135K consensus.</li>
<li>Nonfarm private payrolls came at 223K vs. 125K consensus.</li>
<li>Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.</li>
<li>Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate came at 4.1% vs. 4.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>At a minimum, this data point shows that Powell could have been wrong. When Powell cut interest rates by 50 bps, he explained it away by predicting labor weakness. The just released jobs report shows that there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>Before and after the 50 bps rate cut,  we shared with readers The Arora Report analysis that the data did not support a 50 bps rate cut. Today's jobs report clearly proves that The Arora Report analysis was correct and the Fed may have made a mistake.  </li>
<li>Bonds are falling on the strong report.</li>
<li>Stocks are seeing extremely aggressive buying after the report. In the short term, it is bullish in that Powell gave the stock  market a big gift of a 50 bps cut predicting labor weakness, but there is no labor weakness.</li>
<li>After the jobs report, AI stocks are ripping. In the early trade, buying is extremely aggressive in AI stocks.  </li>
<li>This data is going to be ammunition for those who have been saying that the 50 bps rate cut was designed to help Harris win the election even though the Fed continues to publicly say that the Fed does not consider politics. Keep in mind, Trump has said that he would not reappoint Powell.</li>
<li>Adding to the optimism is that dock workers have suspended their strike.</li>
<li>In the longer term, this jobs data raises the probability that inflation will not come down to the Fed's 2% target and the Fed will once again be proven wrong.</li>
<li>As a note of caution, this is only one piece of data. At The Arora Report, we will be carefully watching additional pieces of new data as it comes. This is exactly what prudent investors should do.</li>
<li>ISM Non-Manufacturing Index yesterday came at 54.9 vs. 51.6 consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, this data also shows that the economy is strong.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on strong jobs data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

GOOG

AI Stocks Ripping, Barn Burner Jobs Report - Could Powell Be Wrong?

Biotech

U.S. DEA Says Seen Increase In Illegal Online Pharmacies Selling & Shipping Counterfeit Pills Made With Fentanyl & Methamphetamine In The U.S.

Legal

U.S. Supreme Court Declines To Pause Environmental Protection Agency Methane Emissions Rule Challenged By States And Industry Groups

Contracts

CSLLY

U.S. HHS Official Says BARDA Awarding Additional $72M In New Grants For Bird Flu Vaccine Manufacturing; Bird Flu Vaccine Grants Awarded To Sanofi, GSK, And CSL; CDC Has Confirmed Two New Human Cases Of Bird Flu In California; 2 California Dairy Farm Workers That Contracted Bird Flu Had Conjunctivitis, Neither Reported Respiratory Symptoms; California Is Conducting Symptom Monitoring Of Other Exposed Workers On The Dairy Farms; 56 Dairy Farms In California Have Reported Bird Flu Infections

<a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/10/04/doi-probing-nyc-mayor-adams-administration-over-evolv-subway-weapons-scanner-technology-sources/">https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/10/04/doi-probing-nyc-mayor-adams-administration-over-evolv-subway-weapons-scanner-technology-sources/</a>
The Department of Investigation is probing Mayor Adams' administration over its controversial effort to install weapons scanners in the MTA subway system and other locations, the Daily News has learned.

EVLV

'DOI Probing NYC Mayor Adams Administration Over Evolv Subway Weapons Scanner Technology' - Daily News

Global

Yemen's Houthi Al Masirah TV Says U.S.-British Air Strikes Targeting Hodeidah Airport, Area In Sanaa; U.S.-British Air Strike Targets The South Of Dhamar City

Goldman raises 12-month S&P 500 target to 6,300, lifts 2025 EPS growth view to 11%

An analysis and commentary on the financial markets.

AskSlim Market Week - Friday, Oct. 4

A recap of the economic news of the week.

Weekly Recap And DARP Update - Friday, Oct. 5

Lost decades in the markets are not at all uncommon. Current valuation extremes suggests we may be on the cusp of another one.

On The Cusp Of Another Lost Decade?

S&P 500 ekes out weekly gain as blowout jobs report offsets Middle East worries

This Wasn't A Monster Employment Number

Markets Weekly Outlook - Jobs Report May Lead To Cautious Fed, U.S. CPI Next

September Jobs Report: Not As Weak As Once Thought?

More Treats Than Tricks

In this week's video, we'll review the latest charts to help us answer the question - The economy and markets: Is this as good as it gets?

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