iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

最新ニュース iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the Underlying Index), which measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years. As of February 29, 2024, there were 40 issues in the Underlying Index. The Underlying Index consists of publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have dollar 300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed). In addition, the securities in the Underlying Index must be fixed rate and denominated in U.S. dollars. Excluded from the Underlying Index are inflation-linked securities, Treasury bills, cash management bills, any government agency debt issued with or without a government guarantee and zero-coupon issues that have been stripped from coupon-paying bonds. The Underlying Index is market value weighted, and the securities in the Underlying Index are updated on the last business day of each month.

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2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。

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As U.S. Treasuries wobble under the weight of budget deficits and rate uncertainty, <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets">emerging market debt</a> is quietly staging a comeback — offering higher real yields, currency resilience, and inflation breathing room.
Investors accustomed to reflexively retreating to Treasuries in times of volatility are reconsidering. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) is down over 8% over the past year, and still negative year-to-date.
In contrast, EM debt ETFs are showing strength: the iShares JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEMB#NYSE">LEMB</a>) is up nearly 10% year-to-date, while the VanEck JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EMLC#NYSE">EMLC</a>) and the SPDR Bloomberg Emerging Markets Local Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EBND#NYSE">EBND</a>) have returned over 7%.
Even more compelling? These gains come as local inflation trends across emerging markets soften, not heating up.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/06/46064634/vanguard-slashes-fees-across-european-fixed-income-ucits-etfs-enhancing-low-cost-investing-options">Vanguard Slashes Fees Across European Fixed Income UCITS ETFs, Enhancing Low-Cost Investing Options</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Real Yield Advantage Is Back</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="611" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-1024x611.png" alt="" class="wp-image-959609" style="width:736px;height:auto" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-1024x611.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-300x179.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-768x458.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355-1536x916.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/24065955/image-355.png 1979w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The numbers tell the story:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Brazil&#8217;s 10-year government bond yields sit at a jaw-dropping 13.84%, while inflation has cooled to 5.32% &#8211; still above target but declining. That's a real yield north of 8%. </li>
<li>India's 10-year yield is 6.36% with inflation just 2.82%.</li>
<li>Indonesia yields 6.76% against inflation of 1.6%.</li>
</ul>
Compare that with the U.S., where 10-year yields are 4.35% and inflation ticked up to 2.4% in May, after four straight months of decline. While still moderate, the uptick &#8211; driven by food and transportation &#8211; suggests limited near-term relief for real yields. Core inflation held steady at 2.8%, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance.
In short, emerging markets are offering stronger inflation-adjusted returns, with less policy ambiguity.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Currency Strength Adds Another Layer</h2>
For years, dollar dominance made EM debt vulnerable. Not anymore. 
The DXY dollar index is down nearly 10% YTD, and Brazil's real has strengthened over 11% against the dollar, boosting total return potential. 
While India and Indonesia have seen more stable currencies, their resilience against the greenback is still a win in the EM debt playbook.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Rate Cut Room &amp; Policy Stability</h2>
With inflation falling and real yields rising, central banks in emerging economies now have room to cut rates &#8211; a powerful tailwind for bond prices. 
India's CPI just hit a six-year low, Brazil is inching toward its inflation target, and Indonesia remains firmly within its policy range. 
That's in stark contrast to the U.S., where the Fed remains caught between stickier core inflation and concerns over fiscal slippage.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How To Play It</h2>
For investors looking to diversify income streams and hedge against dollar volatility:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>LEMB: Up 9.88% YTD, offers broad exposure to sovereign debt in local currency.</li>
<li>EMLC: Up 7.43% YTD, tracks J.P. Morgan's benchmark for EM local debt.</li>
</ul>
These funds also benefit from exposure to stronger currencies and improving macro fundamentals.
U.S. Treasuries may still be the default play for safety, but in 2025, the risk-adjusted returns are flowing toward emerging markets. 
With inflation falling, currencies stabilizing, and yields sky-high, EM debt isn&#8217;t just an alternative anymore &#8211; it might just be the new safe haven.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/46014647/wall-street-watches-as-money-flows-out-of-us-markets-is-the-great-rotation-here">Wall Street Watches As Money Flows Out Of US Markets — Is The &#8216;Great Rotation&#8217; Here?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Emerging Markets

Markets

EBND

Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF

EMLC

LEMB

Bond Bulls Look To Brazil, India, Indonesia As Emerging Market Debt Rallies

Wall Street showed unexpected resilience Monday as investors looked past a sharp escalation in the Middle East, where Iran fired missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq — just 48 hours after American strikes <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/iran">targeted Iranian nuclear facilities.</a>
According to Axios, citing Israeli officials, Iran launched six ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military presence in the Middle East. Another missile was reportedly fired at a U.S. base in Iraq. 
Despite the rising geopolitical risks, U.S. equity markets held firm. By midday trading in New York, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% to 21,755, the S&amp;P 500 added 0.4% to 5,990, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 0.3% higher to 42,321. Small caps underperformed, with the Russell 2000 down 0.1% to 2,107.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with his national security team at 1 p.m. ET at the White House to assess the evolving threat landscape.
Monday's session defied expectations in energy markets. West Texas Intermediate crude fell over 5% to below $70 a barrel, on track for its worst one-day drop since early April and its lowest level in a week.
Gold rose 0.6% to $3,387 per ounce. The day&#8217;s standout gainer was the U.S. bond market, with yields falling across major maturities. 
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained nearly 1%, surging to levels last seen in May 8. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,755.49</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,988.77</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,321.51</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,107.04</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:20 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.5% to $550.39.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.4% up to $423.40.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.5% to $529.89.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) held steady at $209.28.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Discretionary&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) outperformed, up 1.5%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 2.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDS#NYSE">FDS</a>) gained 3.4% despite missing earnings expectations, buoyed by stronger-than-expected forward guidance.</li>
<li>Novo Nordisk (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) said Monday it has terminated its partnership with Hims &amp; Hers Health Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HIMS#NYSE">HIMS</a>) for selling weight-loss drugs, including Wegovy. Shares of Novo fell 6%, while Hims &amp; Hers plunged 33%.</li>
<li>
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Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) surged nearly 10% after CEO Elon Musk touted the "successful" weekend rollout of the company's robotaxi fleet in Austin, Texas. Read Now:</li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46055156/sp500-oil-crisis-performance-iran">War, Oil, And S&amp;P 500: Here&#8217;s How The Stock Market Behaves In Energy Crises</a> Photo: Thapana Studio via Shutterstock </li>
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Stocks Rise, Oil Tumbles Despite Iran's Strikes On US Bases: What's Driving Markets Monday?

U.S. bonds are on track to log ten straight six-month periods of underperformance relative to stocks, a record-breaking stretch of underperformance since 2020 that&#8217;s rippling through markets and shaking <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/stories-that-matter">up traditional investor portfolios.</a>
The streak spans five years and reflects a regime shift in global markets—one driven by rising interest rates, an overstretched fiscal backdrop, and a tech-driven equity boom.
Yet with geopolitical tensions escalating in Iran, some may wonder whether the prolonged cycle of bond underperformance compared to stocks might finally turn.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46055156/sp500-oil-crisis-performance-iran">War, Oil, And S&amp;P 500: Here&#8217;s How The Stock Market Behaves In Energy Crises</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Market Underperformance</h3>
A way to assess the relative performance of the bond market compared to the stock market is by tracking the ratio between the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>) and the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>); below is a table showing this dynamic over the past 10 consecutive half-year periods.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Period</th>
<th>TLT/VOO Ratio</th>
<th>TLT Return</th>
<th>S&amp;P 500 Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2020 H2</td>
<td>-20.65%</td>
<td>-3.80%</td>
<td>+21.30%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021 H1</td>
<td>-20.07%</td>
<td>-8.48%</td>
<td>+14.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021 H2</td>
<td>-7.46%</td>
<td>+2.70%</td>
<td>+10.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 H1</td>
<td>-2.44%</td>
<td>-22.48%</td>
<td>-20.54%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022 H2</td>
<td>-14.43%</td>
<td>-13.33%</td>
<td>+1.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 H1</td>
<td>-10.81%</td>
<td>+3.39%</td>
<td>+15.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023 H2</td>
<td>-10.44%</td>
<td>-3.94%</td>
<td>+7.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 H1</td>
<td>-18.93%</td>
<td>-7.18%</td>
<td>+14.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024 H2</td>
<td>-11.68%</td>
<td>-4.85%</td>
<td>+7.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025 H1 (thru June 23)</td>
<td>-2.15%</td>
<td>-0.10%</td>
<td>+2.05%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: TLT vs. VOO – A 70% Underperformance Over Five Years</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-958379" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/23115259/image-336-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Have Bonds Struggled?</h3>
It all started with the 2020 pandemic recovery, when a "risk-on" mood emerged.
As stimulus measures boosted economic growth, investors fled safe-haven Treasuries and flocked to risk-on assets like equities.
The real damage accelerated in 2022, when the Federal Reserve launched its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades. Bond prices collapsed as yields surged, marking the end of a four-decade bull run fueled by low inflation and near-zero interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis.
Even in the first half of 2022, as the S&amp;P 500 plunged 20.5%, long-duration Treasuries fell even harder—down 22.5%—highlighting how vulnerable bonds had become in a rising-rate environment.
The contrast grew starker in 2023 and 2024, when stocks entered a blistering bull market—posting back-to-back annual gains of 24% and 23%, the strongest two-year stretch since 1998. Bonds, meanwhile, remained under pressure as yields stayed elevated.
Behind the scenes, U.S. fiscal conditions worsened. Since the pandemic, the federal deficit has hovered near 6%-7% of GDP, far above historical norms. In 2025, credit rating agency Moody's stripped the U.S. of its last AAA rating, citing runaway spending and debt accumulation. Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds escalated at or near 5%. 
Adding fuel to the fire, President Donald Trump's sweeping fiscal package has pushed long-term projections deeper into the red. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bill is expected to add $2.6 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
Together, these forces have created a toxic mix for bonds: rising rates, sticky inflation, surging deficits and a loss of investor confidence in U.S. fiscal sustainability.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Will War Shift The Bond-Stock Balance?</h3>
With geopolitical risk surging after the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear facility on June 21, investors are asking a key question: Could a major war or energy crisis finally reverse bonds' historic underperformance versus equities?
According to Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America, the relationship between conflict and Treasury yields isn't straightforward. 
"UST yields often don&#8217;t decline with higher geopolitical risks, especially if oil prices are rising," he said in a note shared Monday.
The critical factor, Cabana added, is whether the event materially damages the U.S. economy. 
"Our analysis of prior geopolitical events suggests an inconsistent response of USTs; we conclude that USTs often do not rally amidst geopolitical tensions and the directional move correlates with oil prices."
Bank of America's historical study, which includes major geopolitical flashpoints from the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait onward, found that Treasury yields actually rose about half the time in the month following such events. 
Often, these periods were accompanied by oil price spikes, which fueled inflation concerns and pushed yields higher—not lower.
Put simply, the bond market doesn't behave like a risk-off hedge when oil is surging.
That's why even a significant military escalation in the Middle East may not be enough to snap the bond market's underperformance streak versus equities.
Now Read
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/46055156/sp500-oil-crisis-performance-iran">War, Oil, And S&amp;P 500: Here&#8217;s How The Stock Market Behaves In Energy Crises </a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Government

Regulations

Analyst Ratings

US Bonds Trailed S&P 500 For 5 Straight Years — Will Iran Shock Snap The Streak?

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller may have just handed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETF investors </a>a mid-summer plot twist. 
In a Friday interview with CNBC, Waller said the U.S. central bank could start cutting interest rates as early as July, a stark pivot after six straight months of holding the line.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on July 29–30, and while a rate cut is far from guaranteed, Waller's comments have given markets, and particularly rate-sensitive ETFs, fresh fuel for speculation.
"We could do this as early as July," said Waller, who noted that inflation and GDP are now hovering near the Fed's long-run targets. He also estimated that the current benchmark rate is about 1.25 to 1.5 percentage points above the "neutral" level.
That's Fed-speak for: we might have over-tightened, and it could be time to ease up.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/06/46029255/alliancebernsteins-emop-etf-targets-growth-in-emerging-markets">AllianceBernstein&#8217;s EMOP ETF Targets Growth In Emerging Markets</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Sectors That Could Rally On Rate Cuts</h2>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Real Estate ETF: REITs, which are highly sensitive to interest rate changes due to their dependence on financing, have underperformed in the higher-rate environment. A dovish pivot could breathe life into real estate ETFs like Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) as rate cut expectations build.</li>
</ul>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Utilities ETFs: Often seen as bond proxies because of their stable dividends, utility stocks tend to outperform when rates fall. If the Fed starts easing, utilities ETFs like Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) could attract income-hungry investors looking to lock in relatively higher yields.</li>
</ul>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Tech and Growth ETFs: Lower interest rates boost the net present value of future earnings — a key tailwind for growth-heavy ETFs. High-duration tech plays, many of which are concentrated in funds like Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) and ARK Innovation ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#BATS">ARKK</a>), could benefit as the cost of capital falls and investor risk appetite grows.</li>
</ul>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Bond ETFs: Treasury ETFs with longer durations could rally on falling yields, particularly if the Fed signals a steady easing cycle. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has already seen slight upward price action in anticipation of policy shifts, and Waller's remarks could intensify that trend.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">But Wait, The Fed's Still Divided</h2>
Despite <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/45714800/feds-christopher-waller-signals-caution-on-rate-cut-amid-tariff-driven-inflation-risks">Waller's optimism</a>, not everyone at the Fed is reaching for the rate-cut button. At the most recent policy meeting, seven Fed officials indicated they expect no cuts this year, according to Bloomberg. Others are sticking to the expectation of two cuts before year-end, a classic case of monetary policy déjà vu.
Then there's the geopolitical wildcard: Waller cautioned that any rate easing would come with caveats, especially if shocks, like Middle East escalations, reignite inflation.
That means inflation hedge ETFs like the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TIP#NYSE">TIP</a>) or broad commodity funds like Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBC#NYSE">DBC</a>) may still be worth holding in a diversified strategy.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Trump Factor: A Political Sideshow?</h2>
President Donald Trump, who remains a vocal critic of the Fed, has been hammering the central bank to cut rates, suggesting it would help reduce ballooning interest costs on the government's debt. The Treasury has already shelled out $776 billion in interest payments over the past eight months, more than what the U.S. spent on defense.
But Waller didn't mince words: the Fed doesn't exist to make the government&#8217;s debt cheaper.
"Our mandate from Congress tells us to worry about unemployment and price stability," Waller said. "It does not tell us to provide cheap financing to the US government."
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bottom Line</h2>
Waller's comments suggest that the Fed is growing increasingly comfortable with the idea of normalizing rates, or at least dipping a toe into the water. For ETF investors, that opens the door to rebalancing toward sectors poised to benefit from falling rates, even as the inflation story continues to lurk in the background.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/06/46017496/israel-iran-conflict-lifts-crude-above-77-what-it-means-for-oil-etfs">Israel-Iran Conflict Lifts Crude Above $77: What It Means For Oil ETFs</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

REIT

Specialty ETFs

Real Estate

ARKK

PowerShares DBmmodity Index Optimum Yield Diversified Fund

iShares Trust Dow Jones US Real Estate Fund Index

Fed Rate Cuts To Come 'As Early As July'? Dovish Turn Sparks ETF Rebound Hopes

More than 200 Central banks and foreign entities have withdrawn a substantial amount of U.S. Treasuries from the New York Federal Reserve, signaling potential concerns over the stability of the U.S. dollar.
What Happened: The New York Fed&#8217;s custody holdings of U.S. Treasuries and other assets have seen a significant decline. The holdings dropped by $17 billion last week and have plummeted by $48 billion since late March, coinciding with the onset of the trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump&#8216;s tariffs, <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/06/18/central-banks-have-dumped-48-billion-in-treasuries-as-foreign-wealth-officials-divorce-the-dollar/">reported </a>Fortune
Bank of America&#8216;s managing director and U.S. rates strategist, Meghan Swiber and fellow strategist, Katie Craig, expressed significant concern over the withdrawal of foreign private investors from the Treasury securities market. Swiber and Craig commented, &#8220;This drop is unusual.&#8221;
Typically, the cash generated from the sale of U.S. debt is placed in the New York Fed&#8217;s reverse repurchase facility, where it is exchanged for Treasuries as collateral. However, that trend has recently reversed, with foreign participation in the facility declining by $15 billion since late March. This points to a notable reduction in U.S. assets held by foreigners at the Fed — roughly $63 billion in just over two months.
Swider told Fortune, "We're of the view that deficits are going to continue to climb higher in the coming years, and what we struggle with is, ‘Who is going to help support that higher level of supply?&#8221;
As per Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, foreign buyers constitute about 30% of the U.S. Treasury market, and any decrease in their participation could compel the Treasury to offer higher yields to attract buyers, affecting interest rates across the economy, reported Fortune. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>SEE ALSO: <a href="https://benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/06/45989307/senate-passes-genius-act-coinbases-brian-armstrong-calls-it-big-milestone-scott-bessent-says-passage-could-drive-stablecoins-into-a-3-7-trillion-market" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Senate Passes GENIUS Act—Coinbase&#8217;s Brian Armstrong Calls It &#8216;Big Milestone,&#8217; Scott Bessent Says Passage Could Drive Stablecoins Into A $3.7 Trillion Market &#8211; Benzinga</a></li>
</ul>
Why It Matters: The recent withdrawal of U.S. Treasuries by central banks and foreign entities adds to the growing concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar and the potential impact on the global economy. This trend has been accompanied by a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/treasuries/25/06/45960637/treasury-yields-near-5-after-soft-foreign-demand-a-red-flag-for-stocks">rise in Treasury yields</a>, which could signal a weakening of foreign demand for U.S. debt, further exacerbating the situation.
These developments are particularly noteworthy given the historical relationship between the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. However, this pattern has seen a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/treasuries/25/06/45739830/us-dollar-decouples-with-10-year-treasuries-as-trade-tensions-change-long-standing-relationships-between-asset-classes">significant divergence</a> since April 2025, potentially indicating a shift in global confidence in U.S. assets.
As the U.S. dollar&#8217;s status as the world&#8217;s reserve currency and the confidence in the U.S. government&#8217;s ability to meet its financial obligations are called into question, the U.S. may face increased borrowing costs, potentially impacting various sectors of the economy.
On a year-to-date basis, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 1.05%, while iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) climbed 2.21%. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://benzinga.com/news/health-care/25/06/45954557/ozempic-patent-expires-in-canada-after-novo-nordisk-fails-to-pay-450-fee-its-the-second-largest-semaglutide-market-in-the-world-says-sandoz-ceo-richard-saynor" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ozempic Patent Expires In Canada After Novo Nordisk Fails To Pay $450 Fee: &#8216;It&#8217;s The Second-Largest Semaglutide Market In The World,&#8217; Says Sandoz CEO Richard Saynor (UPDATED) &#8211; Sandoz Group (OTC:SDZNY</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

News

iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

Over 200 Central Banks Reportedly Dump $48 Billion In US Treasuries Amid Concerns Over Dollar's Stability: 'The Drop Is Unusual'

U.S. Treasury yields climbed sharply Monday after a 20-year bond auction showed signs of weakening foreign demand. This bolstered concerns over America's fiscal outlook and tested the market's tolerance for a 5% <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">long-term yield threshold.</a>
The spike in yields took place after 12:00 p.m. ET, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising 4 basis points to 4.96%, approaching the psychologically important 5% mark. The benchmark 10-year yield also rose 4 basis points to 4.45%.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="527" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16152055/image-247-1024x527.png" alt="" class="wp-image-951297" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16152055/image-247-1024x527.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16152055/image-247-300x154.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16152055/image-247-768x395.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16152055/image-247-1536x790.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16152055/image-247-2048x1053.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">20-Year Auction Triggers Yield Surge</h2>
Exante Data noted that Monday's 20-year bond auction showed a mixed picture of demand. 
The U.S. Treasury sold $14.3 billion in bonds at a high yield of 4.94%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.68—landing in the top quartile of the last 50 auctions, suggesting solid headline interest. 
Primary dealers, who are required to take unsold debt, purchased 13.4%—in line with historical averages. 
Direct bidders, including mutual funds and hedge funds, made up 19.9% of demand, also in the top quartile. 
But indirect bidders, a group largely made up of foreign institutions, took just 66.7%—a level only slightly above the bottom quartile, pointing to weaker-than-usual foreign appetite.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">20-Year Bond Auction Summary Today (Jun 16, 2025), the US Treasury auctioned a 20-Year bond for $14.3bn at a High Yield of 4.94%, recording a Bid to Cover of 2.68. In the chart below we summarize other auction metrics. <a href="https://t.co/fTi7kAL5UG">pic.twitter.com/fTi7kAL5UG</a>
&mdash; Exante Data (@ExanteData) <a href="https://twitter.com/ExanteData/status/1934658822980706357?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The yield move rattled bond proxies. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) declined 1% on the day, as longer-duration bonds remain highly sensitive to rate moves.
This yield spike follows a broader trend of tightening financial conditions, raising questions about whether higher yields could derail the ongoing stock market rally.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Does The 5% Yield Threaten Stocks?</h3>
In a report this month, Goldman Sachs analysts indicated that fears around the 5% threshold for long-term Treasury <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/treasuries/25/06/45798569/think-5-yields-will-crush-stock-market-goldman-sachs-says-think-again">yields are largely overblown. </a>
While investors often compare Treasury yields to the S&amp;P 500's earnings yield—now also hovering around 5%—Goldman says this &#8220;parity logic&#8221; misrepresents the historical relationship.
"Because equities are tied to nominal earnings, we believe the inflation-adjusted real Treasury yield is a more appropriate comparator," Goldman said.
Historical data supports this view: when 10-year yields ranged from 5% to 6%, U.S. equities still delivered a median annual total return of 16%. Even during periods when yields exceeded 8%, stock returns averaged 19%.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45954142/retail-sales-face-key-tariff-test-how-could-markets-react-to-weaker-spending">Retail Sales Face Key Tariff Test: How Could Markets React To Weaker Spending? </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Tech

Treasury Yields Near 5% After Soft Foreign Demand: A Red Flag For Stocks?

U.S. stocks retreated Friday as geopolitical tensions erupted following Israel's surprise airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites, sparking a sharp rally<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/guidance/25/06/45928561/gold-biggest-boom-in-decades-and-investors-are-still-missing-out"> in oil and gold.</a>
Crude futures surged to $77 a barrel overnight before easing to $72.24 by midday—still up 5% on the session—as fears grew over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil flows.
Equity volatility spiked, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – also known as the market &#8220;fear index&#8221; – rocketed 10% by midday, yet trimming an even bigger jump at the open. 
Gold climbed past $3,430 an ounce, rising over 1% and putting record highs near $3,500 into potential target. The U.S. dollar halted the bleeding as risk sentiment deteriorated globally.
President Donald Trump said he had given Iran a 60-day ultimatum "to make a deal," adding they may now have a "second chance." A scheduled U.S.-Iran meeting on Sunday is uncertain.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the strikes would continue until Iran's nuclear threat is removed, while Tehran vowed retaliation.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded strongly in June to 60.5 from 52.2, beating expectations. One-year inflation expectations dropped to 5.1% from 6.6%.
Despite the risk-off mood, longer-dated Treasury yields rose by 8 basis points—an unusual move suggesting persistent concerns around U.S. fiscal risks. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) sunk 1.6%, its worst session in over three weeks. 
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) slipped 0.6% to $105,000, suffering as risk sentiment fades. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,782.69</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,006.38</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,116.35</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,385.77</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>• CBOE VIX</td>
<td>19.78</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) fell 0.6% to $551,57.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) fell 1.4% to $424.53.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;eased 0.7% to $529.92.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) dropped 1.2% to $210,28.</li>
<li>The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp; (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 1.2%; the&nbsp;Financials&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) lagged, down 1.7%.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Oracle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>) jumped 7.2% after delivering stronger-than-expected earnings, extending its weekly gain to 23% and on track for its best week since 2001.</li>
<li>Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>) fell 6% despite topping Wall Street estimates, as investors focused on signs of slowing growth.</li>
<li>Payment giants Visa Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/V#NYSE">V</a>) and Mastercard Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MA#NYSE">MA</a>) dropped more than 4% each after Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Walmart Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WMT#NYSE">WMT</a>) unveiled plans to issue stablecoins.</li>
<li>Defense contractors Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), RTX Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>), and L3Harris Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LHX#NYSE">LHX</a>) gained 3.4%, 3.1%, and 2.4%, respectively.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/06/45931068/missiles-and-firewalls-defense-stocks-surge-as-israel-iran-tensions-ignite">Missiles And Firewalls: Defense Stocks Surge As Israel-Iran Tensions Ignite </a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

ADBE

AMZN

ORCL

Wall Street's VIX Jumps 10%, Gold And Oil Gain As Middle East Tensions Flare Up: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Wall Street traded cautiously on Thursday midday, with major indexes mostly flat while the U.S. dollar slumped to over two-year lows, as investors digested a double dose of soft inflation and a surprise uptick in jobless claims that further bolstered expectations <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">for interest rate cuts.</a>
May's Producer Price Index rose just 0.1% from the prior month, undershooting forecasts of 0.2%, while the annual rate held steady at 2.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, cooled to 3.0% year-over-year—its lowest since August 2024—and gained only 0.1% on the month, missing the 0.3% projection.
Jobless claims added to the cautious mood. Initial claims climbed to 248,000 last week, above the 240,000 estimate, while continuing claims hit 1.956 million—the highest level since November 2021—suggesting weakening labor demand. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump Pressures Powell, Again</h3>
President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
Speaking from the White House, Trump said he told Powell "we don't need to keep interest rates this high" and added that he "may have to force something," hinting at political frustration over tight monetary policy.
The S&amp;P 500 inched 0.2% higher to 6,035 points by midday trading in New York. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also rose 0.2% to 21,900 points. 
Blue-chip stocks, tracked by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, were flat at 42,860, while small-cap shares fell 0.5%.
The U.S. dollar index — tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — fell 0.6% to 97.60, hitting its weakest level since March 2022 amid broad disinflation and labor market concerns.
Treasury yields declined across the curve, with 5- to 6-basis-point drops. In response, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) surged nearly 1%.
Gold prices climbed sharply as the dollar weakened and expectations grew for easier Fed policy. The yellow metal rose 1% to $3,390 per ounce, while silver erased early losses to gain 0.2%, reaching $36.30.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>), meanwhile, slipped 1.3% to $107,400. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,905.42</td>
<td>+0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,036.89</td>
<td>+0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,864.84</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,137.55</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Oracle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>) rallied by 14.4% in reaction to stronger-than-expected earnings and upbeat guidance. Shares eye the strongest 1-day surge since December 2021. </li>
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) fell 5% after a fatal crash involving a 787-8 Dreamliner in India resulted in 240 deaths. </li>
<li>Shares of United Airlines Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>), American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) fell 3.5%, 2.4% and 1.9% in reaction to the tragic event.</li>
<li>Fortrea Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FTRE#NASDAQ">FTRE</a>) surged 14% Thursday after the company announced the adoption of a shareholder rights plan designed to prevent hostile takeovers and protect investor interests.</li>
<li>GameStop Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GME#NYSE">GME</a>) sunk 20% after announcing late Wednesday that it intends to raise $1.75 billion through the sale of convertible senior notes maturing in 2032. </li>
</ul>
Now Read:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45906982/dollar-hits-27-month-lows-the-fed-should-cut-next-week-economist-says">Economists Send Urgent Warning After Dollar Hits 2 Year Low </a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

FTRE

Stocks Flat, Dollar Sinks To Over 2-Year Lows After Inflation Data: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

Editor&#8217;s Note: This article has been updated with additional content.
Producer prices snapped back in May after an April decline, but the rebound fell short of sparking inflation concerns, suggesting tariffs and supply frictions have yet to bleed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">broadly into the economy.</a>
The Producer Price Index rose 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, up from April's upwardly revised 2.5%, according to Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
On a monthly basis, the PPI advanced 0.1%, reversing April's upwardly revised 0.2% decline, and below the 0.2% expected. 
Core PPI, which strips out food and energy prices and is a key indicator of underlying inflation pressures, eased to 3% annually from April's 3.2%. This marks the lowest level since August 2024. On a monthly basis, core PPI inched 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the prior month, below than expected 0.3%. 
Thursday's producer data arrived one day after a softer-than-expected consumer inflation reading. The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.4% year-over-year in May, up slightly from April's 2.3%, but below the anticipated 2.5% increase. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Producer Inflation</th>
<th>May 2025</th>
<th>April 2025</th>
<th>Expected</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PPI YoY</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PPI MoM</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PPI YoY</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PPI MoM</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
In a separate release Thursday, the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 for the week ending June 7, above forecasts for 240,000. Continuing claims surged to 1.956 million, the highest level since November 2021 and above consensus projections of 1.91 million.
The increase in unemployment filings is further evidence of a softening labor market, potentially giving the Federal Reserve additional room to resume the pace of interest rate cuts.
Fed futures currently price in a near-certainty of a first rate cut by October. 
Following the PPI and jobless claims data, traders are assigned roughly 40 basis points of total easing by year-end, implying at least one full 25-basis-point cut and a high probability of a second in December.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Treasury Yields Fall, Dollar Hits 2-Year Lows</h3>
Both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields dropped sharply following the cooler inflation readings and signs of labor market weakening.
A trade-weighted measure of the dollar, broadly tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), slid to 97.70—its lowest level since March 2022.
Bond markets reacted with a broad rally. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 7 basis points to 4.35%, while the 30-year yield also declined 7 basis points to 4.85%. The more rate-sensitive 2-year yield dropped to 3.87%, approaching its lowest point since early May, as traders ramped up bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) was 1.1% higher in the premarket trading. 
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures pared overnight losses, supported by growing expectations for looser monetary policy and more favorable conditions for risk assets.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45899819/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-look-through-near-term-noise-be-deliberate-about-the-kinds-of-risk-youre-taking-leverage-ai-say-experts">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower: &#8216;Look Through Near-Term Noise, Be Deliberate About The Kinds Of Risk You&#8217;re Taking, Leverage AI,&#8217; Say Experts</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Producer Inflation Rises Less Than Forecasts In May, Jobless Claims Signal Labor Market Cracks (UPDATED)

While Wall Street is laser-focused on whether Treasury yields decisively break the 5% mark — a level already breached by 30-year bonds and often viewed as ominous for stocks — Goldman Sachs is pushing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color">back on the panic.</a>
In a research note released Wednesday, Goldman Sachs challenged the widely accepted view that 5% nominal yields on U.S. Treasuries represent a breaking point for equities.
&#8220;Many investors point to 5% nominal yields as a key tipping point for stocks, but we are less convinced,&#8221; a Goldman Investment Research report stated.
Yields on U.S. government bonds have surged since April, driven by rising inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve&#8217;s reluctance to cut interest rates, a Moody's downgrade, a reduced appetite from foreign buyers and a renewed wave of fiscal spending that raises debt concerns in Washington.
The 30-year Treasury yield now exceeds 4.9%, while the 10-year sits at 4.4%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has declined by 2% year-to-date, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses.
Global demand for Treasuries is shifting. &#8220;Non-U.S. investors, particularly from Europe and Japan, are increasingly disincentivized to own U.S. Treasuries on a currency-hedged basis due to rising home-market yields and high hedging costs,&#8221; said in an emailed comment Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What's So Special About 5%?</h1>
According to Goldman Sachs, the fear surrounding a 5% Treasury yield stems from its perceived parity with the S&amp;P 500 earnings yield, also near 5%. 
In theory, if investors can get a "risk-free" 5% return from bonds, why hold riskier stocks?
Goldman, however, calls this thinking misguided. 
Their historical analysis found no consistent correlation between nominal Treasury yields and S&amp;P 500 returns. 
Since 1940, median annual total equity returns — including dividends — remained strong even when yields were sky-high.
When 10-year Treasury yields were between 5% and 6%, equity returns averaged 16%. When yields ranged from 6% to 7%, stocks delivered 19%. Even at yields above 8%, returns remained at 19%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Real Yields Matter More</h1>
Goldman says the more relevant comparison is between the real, inflation-adjusted yield on Treasuries and the nominal earnings yield on stocks. 
The S&amp;P 500 earnings yield currently exceeds the real 10-year Treasury yield by 260 basis points, making equities still relatively attractive.
&#8220;Because equities are tied to nominal earnings, we believe the inflation-adjusted real Treasury yield is a more appropriate comparator,&#8221; Goldman said.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Higher Yields May Stick Around</h1>
Looking ahead, George Cole, Goldman Sachs&#8217; rates strategist, doesn't expect yields to decline meaningfully in the near term.
&#8220;Markets remain in a familiar place of medium-term uncertainty,&#8221; Cole said in a note. &#8220;We still struggle to find compelling reasons to be outright bullish on the long-end.&#8221;
He highlighted a mix of structural factors — including weak hedge demand, growing fiscal deficits and shifting foreign appetite for U.S. debt—could keep yields elevated.
One recent risk is Section 899 of the House fiscal bill, which proposes taxing entities in countries with so-called "unfair" tax regimes. 
This, Cole said, could further discourage foreign interest in Treasuries, forcing the U.S. to offer higher yields to attract buyers.
Read Now:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/45746797/is-a-bond-market-crash-coming-jamie-dimon-blackrock-ray-dalio-and-others-sound-the-alarm">Is A Bond-Market Crash Coming? Jamie Dimon, BlackRock, Ray Dalio And Others Sound The Alarm</a> Photo: LookerStudio via Shutterstock<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/45746797/is-a-bond-market-crash-coming-jamie-dimon-blackrock-ray-dalio-and-others-sound-the-alarm"> </a></li>
</ul>

Think 5% Yields Will Crush Stock Market? Goldman Sachs Says Think Again

CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRWD#NASDAQ">CRWD</a>) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) announced a strategic collaboration on Tuesday that maps adversary naming conventions between both platforms, creating what CEO George Kurtz called a &#8220;Rosetta Stone&#8221; for cyber defenders worldwide.
What Happened: The partnership addresses a critical gap in threat intelligence by unifying how both companies identify and track cyber adversaries, enabling joint customers to better defend against attacks regardless of which nomenclature system they encounter.
&#8220;Through this Rosetta Stone collaboration, we unite defenders in knowing the adversary,&#8221; Kurtz said during CrowdStrike&#8217;s first quarter earnings call. &#8220;Together, we take the guesswork out of adversary attribution for the benefit of our joint customers and the entire market.&#8221;
The announcement comes as CrowdStrike positions itself for explosive growth in AI agent protection, with Kurtz noting that 96% of enterprises plan to expand AI agent usage within 12 months. Some companies target deploying over one billion production agents, dramatically expanding the attack surface cybersecurity firms must protect.
&#8220;Every AI agent represents a unique superhuman identity necessitating visibility, control, and protection,&#8221; Kurtz explained. &#8220;AI agents dramatically increase the size, severity, and speed of the enterprise attack surface.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/45762787/peter-schiff-backs-musks-furious-attack-on-trumps-disgusting-budget-bill-slams-gop-hypocrisy-so-glad-hopefully-elon-can-persuade-trump-to-veto-it">Peter Schiff Backs Musk&#8217;s Furious Attack On Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Disgusting&#8217; Budget Bill, Slams GOP Hypocrisy: &#8216;So Glad &#8230; Hopefully Elon Can Persuade Trump To Veto It&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: CrowdStrike reported strong first-quarter results with $1.1 billion total revenue, up 20% year-over-year, and $194 million in net new Annual Recurring Revenue. The company&#8217;s FalconFlex subscription model generated $3.2 billion in total deal value across 820+ accounts.
CFO Burt Podbere disclosed regulatory scrutiny, stating the company received DOJ and SEC information requests regarding &#8220;revenue recognition and reporting of ARR for certain transactions, the July 19, [2024] outage, and related matters.&#8221;
Price Action: CrowdStrike closed at $488.76 on Tuesday, up 2.00%. In pre-market trading on Wednesday, it fell 6.97% to $454.70. Year to date, the stock is up 40.72%.
According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, CRWD shows strong momentum and modest growth. While the stock has a negative valuation, it maintains a positive price trend across short to long-term periods. Click <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">here to view the full breakdown</a>.
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="878" height="634" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/04053053/image-48.png" alt="" class="wp-image-937912" style="width:482px;height:auto" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/04053053/image-48.png 878w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/04053053/image-48-300x217.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/04053053/image-48-768x555.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 878px) 100vw, 878px" /></a></figure>
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Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. 
Photo: Michael Vi / Shutterstock

CRWD

MSFT

CrowdStrike, Microsoft Partner To Create 'Rosetta Stone' To Help 'Defenders In Knowing The Adversary' Amid Rising AI Agent Deployment

After the best May in 35 years, the US stock market has started June slowly.
Some traders are already talking about a "summer stall," while others expect the rally to continue reaching new all-time highs.
Having traded since the late 1980s, I've seen it all. But I've boiled the financial markets down to five core benchmarks that tell me everything I need to know.
There's so much financial news to keep tabs on right now – the ongoing trade war, interest rates and the tug-of-war between the Fed and Executive Branch, earnings, gold, oil, bellwether stocks like the Magnificent 7 (to say nothing of the other 8,000 optionable stocks in the market), and so much more.
But the truth is, 90% of the chatter around the financial markets is simply noise—a distraction from what's happening beneath the surface – and the best opportunities to profit.
So, the question is: How do you cut through the noise and focus ONLY on what matters?
In my more than three decades as a trader, I have boiled the financial markets down to just five core benchmarks.
These are what I call the&nbsp;Five Points of the Market&nbsp;– the five asset classes that drive the markets every single day:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Stocks</li>
<li>Bonds</li>
<li>Commodities</li>
<li>Currencies</li>
<li>Crypto</li>
</ul>
Now, this is incredibly broad. And it might sound like a lot to keep up with.
You're not wrong! In fact, these five asset classes represent the entire global economy: the $124 trillion stock market, the $140 trillion bond market, the $2.7 trillion crypto market, and so on.
You get the idea.
However, each asset class can be tracked by looking at a single benchmark and applying just a few basic trading concepts to how you interpret the data.
Today, I want to ensure that you can use this information to help you make the smartest—and most profitable—trading decisions.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">NEW: Get Access to The Leaderboards That Reveal Tomorrow's Top Stocks</h2>
Updated daily, Benzinga's Top Stock Leaderboards highlight our best buys right now. Spot breakout opportunities before the crowd catches on—without the noise. Get access now and start using the same research trusted by hedge funds, analysts, and serious traders. Get started <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge/?">HERE</a>.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Five Benchmarks to Use to Decode the Markets Every Day</h2>
As I said, I keep tabs on the market by watching the five most powerful asset classes: Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, and Crypto.
But those markets are vast, complex, and worth trillions. So, I use some of the biggest, most liquid instruments to track these massive markets.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks: SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)</h3>
The S&amp;P 500 Index is the most watched economic indicator in the world. The health of this group of stocks is seen as the benchmark for the entire universe of over 8,000 stocks.
Now, I'm not really interested in monitoring 500 stocks every day (I only really like 370 of them anyway).
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the performance of the S&amp;P 500 Index. It is the most liquid security in the financial market.
SPY gives me a picture of the overall stock market. In one glance, I can tell you short-, medium- and long-term trends impacting the day's trading, not to mention what to look out for in the coming days.
SPY is a great way to gauge the health of the overall stock market. Its liquidity makes it an easy way to buy or trade the market.
Analyzing SPY also reveals the market's most powerful seasonal trends. November to April is the "best six months" seasonal pattern (with April being the strongest month for stocks overall). September, meanwhile, is the weakest month. These historical seasonal trends are important to consider against current market trends and data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bonds: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)</h3>
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years.
This gives us an excellent snapshot of the $140 trillion bond market.
TLT is an economic indicator that can serve as a leading indicator for the inflation outlook.
Longer-term bonds (like those with 20+ years until maturity) generate a yield curve – rates usually rise right along with the time horizon.
Long-term bond yield is reflective of future inflation, so it rises as TLT increases.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the United States Oil Fund LP (USO)</h3>
Now, I don't need to monitor the thousands of commodities that make up the over $20 trillion commodities market.
That's because things like cobalt, lumber, and coffee don't really matter to the overall economic picture – and they certainly don't influence traders' decisions unless you specialize in trading obscure cobalt futures.
That's why I keep my focus on the only commodities that really drive markets: gold and oil.
For gold, I track SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), an exchange-traded fund designed to track the price of gold. Rather than using derivatives to track gold, GLD is backed by actual physical gold, including 400-ounce London good delivery bars held in the HSBC Bank vault in London.
Why is the price of gold important? Well, gold is usually inversely correlated with the value of the U.S. dollar, and it's considered a safe haven during market turbulence. Many market experts (myself included) will tell you that exposure to gold is still a great hedge for any portfolio.
If I'm seeing signs of trouble in the stock market, a rise in the price of gold, as reflected in GLD's price, may indicate that traders are loading up ahead of a pullback or a correction.
Meanwhile, to track the oil market, I use the United States Oil Fund LP (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>). USO tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil by investing in futures contracts, and it can be a great short-term vehicle for trading oil.
Of course, rising oil prices could indicate increased demand due to economic expansion. Plummeting oil prices, meanwhile, can indicate an economic downturn.
Oil and gold both have seasonal patterns that occur throughout the year, and we pay close attention to both.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Currencies: Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP)</h3>
The U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency and the most-watched currency in the world.
A strong dollar can negatively correlate with stocks. Over the last several years, when the dollar has surged, stocks have fallen.
So, I like to monitor Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) for signs of a strengthening or weakening dollar to help inform my trading.
For example, if we're in the middle of a seasonal bear pattern and the dollar is getting stronger, that could give me additional confirmation that a bearish stock or option trade is the way to go.
Likewise, if the Money Calendar predicts a bullish week and we see weakness in the dollar, it may be time to go long.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Crypto: Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)</h3>
Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and largest cryptocurrency, representing nearly 60% of the $2.7 trillion crypto market.
It's the number one indicator of the health of the crypto market—when Bitcoin is going up, bullish sentiment takes hold and spreads to thousands of smaller coins. When Bitcoin consolidates sideways, the entire market follows suit. When Bitcoin crashes, the market enters what we call a "Crypto Winter."
You get the idea. If you want to successfully trade the crypto market, you've got to pay attention to Bitcoin.
From time to time, we'll also take a look at Ethereum (ETH).
Like every other asset class I track, the crypto market is subject to seasonal patterns and regular cycles, just like stocks.
Money flows first into Bitcoin, then Ethereum, and then into smaller, more speculative altcoins.
So when Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin, we like to track it because it can help us uncover those big, fast gains in the altcoin market, the kinds of coins I trade for 1000%+ gains.
Next week, I'll break down exactly what the charts are signaling as we head into summer and discuss the top stocks currently on my radar.
Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.
Photo: Shutterstock

Opinion

How To Know Where Stocks Are Heading Next

As long-dated Treasury yields hover just below 5% and Moody's strips the U.S. of its final AAA credit rating, investor sentiment toward U.S. government bonds has reached some of its most <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/treasuries">bearish levels in decades.</a>
Much of the gloom surrounds concerns over rising fiscal deficits, ballooning interest expenses and a perceived lack of political will to rein in debt. 
At the center of the debate is President Donald Trump's tax plan, dubbed as the &#8220;One, Big, Beautiful Bill,&#8221; which is now under fire for potentially worsening America's fiscal outlook.
According to new estimates from the Congressional Budget Office released Wednesday, the legislation is expected to slash federal revenue by $3.67 trillion through 2034, while cutting just $1.25 trillion in spending. 
The net effect: a $2.4 trillion increase in the federal deficit over the next decade.
This comes at a time when the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio already stands at 6%-7%, levels rarely seen outside of major crises such as wars or the COVID-19 pandemic.
 A growing deficit implies increased bond issuance, and with higher supply comes the need for more attractive yields to lure buyers—putting upward pressure on rates and downward pressure on bond prices.
With the national debt surging past $36.2 trillion in early June and long-term yields climbing, influential Wall Street voices like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and former Bridgewater Associates CIO Ray Dalio are warning that a full-blown crisis is no longer a distant risk—but an inevitable consequence of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/06/45746797/is-a-bond-market-crash-coming-jamie-dimon-blackrock-ray-dalio-and-others-sound-the-alarm">unchecked borrowing in Washington.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Contrarian Opportunity?</h3>
Despite the bleak macro backdrop, a contrarian perspective would say that we may be approaching peak pessimism on U.S. Treasuries.
While the fundamentals and technicals remain unfavorable, a glimmer of hope may lie in seasonal performance trends.
According to data from Seasonax, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)—the largest ETF tracking long-dated U.S. government debt—has historically delivered strong summer returns.
Looking at the past 22 years, a strategy that buys TLT on June 10 and sells it on August 31 (or the nearest trading day thereafter) has delivered a median return of 4.3%. 
The strategy was profitable in 18 of the last 22 years, reflecting an 82% win rate. Notable rallies occurred in 2010 and 2019, with gains of 13.6% and 12.8%, respectively.
The biggest summer-season loss in this period occurred in 2003 when TLT fell 13.2%. However, most of the losing years showed only modest declines.
With a Sharpe ratio of 1.01 and a Sortino ratio of 1.87 during this window, the strategy has historically delivered positive risk-adjusted performance.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Start Date</th>
<th>$TLT Price </th>
<th>End Date</th>
<th>$TLT Price</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2003</td>
<td>54.68</td>
<td>02 Sep 2003</td>
<td>47.40</td>
<td>-13.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2004</td>
<td>48.87</td>
<td>31 Aug 2004</td>
<td>53.07</td>
<td>+8.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2005</td>
<td>59.59</td>
<td>31 Aug 2005</td>
<td>60.71</td>
<td>+1.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12 Jun 2006</td>
<td>56.43</td>
<td>31 Aug 2006</td>
<td>58.40</td>
<td>+3.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11 Jun 2007</td>
<td>57.55</td>
<td>31 Aug 2007</td>
<td>61.69</td>
<td>+7.19%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2008</td>
<td>65.07</td>
<td>02 Sep 2008</td>
<td>68.84</td>
<td>+5.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2009</td>
<td>66.17</td>
<td>31 Aug 2009</td>
<td>72.97</td>
<td>+10.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2010</td>
<td>75.14</td>
<td>31 Aug 2010</td>
<td>85.34</td>
<td>+13.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2011</td>
<td>79.14</td>
<td>31 Aug 2011</td>
<td>87.79</td>
<td>+10.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11 Jun 2012</td>
<td>105.81</td>
<td>31 Aug 2012</td>
<td>107.90</td>
<td>+1.97%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2013</td>
<td>97.22</td>
<td>03 Sep 2013</td>
<td>90.65</td>
<td>-6.76%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2014</td>
<td>98.92</td>
<td>02 Sep 2014</td>
<td>104.79</td>
<td>+5.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2015</td>
<td>105.76</td>
<td>31 Aug 2015</td>
<td>111.65</td>
<td>+5.57%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2016</td>
<td>126.51</td>
<td>31 Aug 2016</td>
<td>131.77</td>
<td>+4.16%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12 Jun 2017</td>
<td>119.60</td>
<td>31 Aug 2017</td>
<td>123.61</td>
<td>+3.35%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11 Jun 2018</td>
<td>117.68</td>
<td>31 Aug 2018</td>
<td>119.88</td>
<td>+1.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2019</td>
<td>130.50</td>
<td>03 Sep 2019</td>
<td>147.21</td>
<td>+12.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2020</td>
<td>160.84</td>
<td>31 Aug 2020</td>
<td>162.19</td>
<td>+0.84%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2021</td>
<td>142.54</td>
<td>31 Aug 2021</td>
<td>148.83</td>
<td>+4.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2022</td>
<td>113.77</td>
<td>31 Aug 2022</td>
<td>111.88</td>
<td>-1.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12 Jun 2023</td>
<td>102.22</td>
<td>31 Aug 2023</td>
<td>96.64</td>
<td>-5.46%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10 Jun 2024</td>
<td>90.89</td>
<td>03 Sep 2024</td>
<td>97.75</td>
<td>+7.55%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: Seasonax</figcaption></figure>
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45768817/us-private-sector-hiring-slows-the-most-in-2-years-powell-must-now-lower-the-rate-trump-says">US Private Sector Hiring Slows The Most In 2 Years: &#8216;Powell Must Now Lower The Rate,&#8217; Trump Says </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Peak Pessimism On US Treasuries? History Says A Summer Rally May Be Near

Correction: The price for gold was corrected. 
Wall Street's two-day rally lost momentum Wednesday as investors reassessed the economic outlook after weak job numbers and a surprise contraction in the U.S. services sector cast fresh doubt over the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">strength of the economy.</a>
By midday in New York, the S&amp;P 500 hovered flat around 5,970, the Nasdaq 100 edged 0.2% higher and the Russell 2000 of small caps slipped 0.2%, reflecting investor caution after consecutive sessions of gains.
The Institute for Supply Management's Services Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.9 in May,<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45773009/services-activity-slips-into-stagnation-in-may-as-cost-pressures-surge-to-november-2022-highs"> down from 51.6 in April</a>. It marked the first contraction since December and the weakest reading since June 2024, sharply missing consensus forecasts of 52%.
A reading below 50 signals contraction, and the drop raised questions about demand in a sector that represents nearly 80% of U.S. economic output. Adding to inflation concerns, the subindex tracking prices paid by service providers jumped to its highest since November 2022, hinting that firms are again facing rising input costs.
Private employers <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45768817/us-private-sector-hiring-slows-the-most-in-2-years-powell-must-now-lower-the-rate-trump-says">added just 37,000 jobs in May</a>, well below April's 62,000 and far short of economists&#8217; expectations for 115,000, according to the National Employment Report from Automatic Data Processing Inc. The May print marked the lowest figure since March 2023, reinforcing concerns about a cooling labor market.
Bond markets reacted strongly to the disappointing data, with yields declining across the Treasury curve.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) surged 1.9%, on track for its best day since late November 2024, 
This rally in bonds came even as the Congressional Budget Office flagged on Wednesday significant fiscal risks from President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which is projected to expand the federal deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Gold traded near $3,387 per ounce as traders sought refuge from potential volatility, while oil prices fell 1% after two strong sessions, with West Texas Intermediate crude slipping to $62 per barrel.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) held steady around $105,000. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices </td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg (%)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,718.49</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,978.41</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,552.95</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,100.69</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:55 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.1% up to $596.79.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) was steady at $426.08.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.3% to $528.65.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) edged 0.2% lower to $208.67.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Health Care&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.8%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 1.7%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRWD#NASDAQ">CRWD</a>) dropped 5.6% after reporting quarterly revenue that came in slightly below Wall Street estimates, disappointing investors despite strong year-over-year growth.</li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPE#NYSE">HPE</a>), up 0.54%; Guidewire Software Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GWRE#NYSE">GWRE</a>), up 16%; Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DLTR#NASDAQ">DLTR</a>), down 6.6% and Thor Industries Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/THO#NYSE">THO</a>), up 3.2%.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>) gained 1% after the Federal Reserve removed a long-standing asset cap that had restricted the bank's total assets to $1.95 trillion since 2018.</li>
<li>Companies slated to report earnings after the close include MongoDB Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MDB#NASDAQ">MDB</a>) and Five Below Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FIVE#NASDAQ">FIVE</a>). </li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/downgrades/25/06/45774924/apple-stock-too-pricey-analyst-warns-of-rising-competition-tariff-risks-favors-2-tech-giants">Apple Stock Too Pricey? Analyst Warns Of Rising Competition, Tariff Risks, Favors 2 Tech Giants</a> Photo: Shutterstock<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/downgrades/25/06/45774924/apple-stock-too-pricey-analyst-warns-of-rising-competition-tariff-risks-favors-2-tech-giants"> </a></li>
</ul>

Small Cap

DLTR

FIVE

GWRE

Stocks Stall On Weak Economic Data, Treasuries Eyes Best Rally In 7 Months: What's Driving Markets Wednesday? (CORRECTED)

With the national debt surging past $36.2 trillion in early June and long-term yields climbing, the U.S. bond market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">is entering dangerous territory.</a>
Leading financial voices are now raising alarms over unsustainable federal deficits, rising interest costs and declining confidence in the national debt.
The rout in Treasuries that began in April has pushed 30-year yields near 5%, levels last seen during the 2023 debt-ceiling standoff and comparable to pre-2008 highs.
Analysts say this reflects investors&#8217; demand for a higher term premium—the extra yield needed to hold longer-term debt in a riskier fiscal environment.
The key question now: Are we witnessing the early stages of a full-blown U.S. government debt crisis, or has the bond-market panic already gone too far?
Here's what the top names are saying.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jamie Dimon: "You're Going to See A Crack In The Bond Market"</h3>
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy is on a fragile foundation of excessive borrowing and loose monetary policy.
According to Dimon, a bond market panic is not just possible—it's inevitable.
"You're going to see a crack in the bond market. It's going to happen," Dimon said last week at the Reagan National Defense Forum.
Dimon blamed the post-pandemic policy response for sowing instability, citing $10 trillion in fiscal stimulus since 2020 and an additional $8 trillion in asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. 
He indicated that this flood of liquidity inflated asset prices and reduced the system's ability to handle stress. 
"Unfortunately, it may be that we need [a crisis] to wake us up."
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/05/45704089/jamie-dimon-warns-of-bond-market-crisis-caused-by-us-debt-binge-youre-going-to-panic">Jamie Dimon Warns Of Bond Market Crisis Caused By US Debt Binge: &#8216;You&#8217;re Going To Panic&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BlackRock: "Staying Underweight Long-Term US Treasuries"</h3>
In a June 2 weekly commentary, BlackRock's Investment Institute reaffirmed its cautious stance on U.S. Treasurys. Jean Boivin, head of the group, said investor appetite for long-dated bonds is fading.
&#8220;Our strongest conviction has been staying underweight long-term U.S. Treasuries. We maintain that view as concerns about the deficit mount,&#8221; the world&#8217;s largest asset manager wrote in the report. 
The firm projects the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio could hit 5%-7%, especially if current spending proposals advance.
&#8220;We're watching to see if these changes impact foreign investors and drive term premium even higher,&#8221; analysts said. 
Long-dated U.S. Treasuries, as tracked via the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), have fallen 3% year-to-date, on track for the fifth straight year of losses. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Ray Dalio: "Unsustainable Debt Levels" Could Lead To Crisis</h3>
The Bridgewater Associates founder continues to express pessimism about the U.S. fiscal trajectory. On Monday, he warned that global debt has reached a dangerous level.
"The current debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are unsustainable."
Ray Dalio called for an &#8220;analytical way&#8221; to tackle the debt crisis. In a tweet last month, he projected the U.S. deficit would reach 7.5% of GDP in 2025 and pressed for urgent fiscal reform.
"If we don't cut that to 3% of GDP, we're likely to face a significant debt crisis in the next few years."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">David Stockman: "A Big Ugly Bomb"</h3>
Former Reagan budget director David Stockman slammed the Trump administration's fiscal package, calling the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill" a "Big Ugly Bomb" that will blow future deficits wide open.
"The latest CBO baseline amounts to a five-alarm dumpster fire."
According to Stockman, if current policy continues unchecked, the federal deficit will approach $3 trillion annually by 2035, and the national debt will surge from $37 trillion to over $58 trillion in just 10 years.
He blamed structural issues—such as automatic spending on entitlements and defense—for locking the U.S. into a dangerous fiscal trajectory.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Regarding the Donald&#39;s Great Big Ugly Debt Bomb! <a href="https://t.co/oh0CJqhyJf">pic.twitter.com/oh0CJqhyJf</a>
&mdash; David Stockman (@DA_Stockman) <a href="https://twitter.com/DA_Stockman/status/1925212043176493418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Brennan Schlagbaum (Budgetdog): "This Is Going to Be Disastrous for Families"</h3>
CPA and financial educator Brennan Schlagbaum, widely followed online as Budgetdog, outlined the impact on everyday Americans.
"The government owes $36 trillion&#8230; and needs to refinance $9 trillion this year." He said the market is demanding an over 5% interest to buy that debt, and neither of the government&#8217;s likely responses—raising rates further or printing money—offer a good outcome.
"If nothing changes by 2034, interest payments will hit $2.2 trillion. That's a financial heart attack."
He warned of ripple effects across the economy, including job losses, soaring taxes, and risks to Social Security and Medicare.
&#8220;The US is going full speed towards a debt crisis,&#8221; the expert warned.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The US is going full speed towards a debt crisis. Interest rates are high, the dollar is weakening, and bond yields are skyrocketing. This is going to be disastrous for families. Let me explain&#8230; <a href="https://t.co/2ULfiaEswc">pic.twitter.com/2ULfiaEswc</a>
&mdash; Brennan Schlagbaum, CPA (@Budgetdog_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Budgetdog_/status/1929698695089676354?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45740592/trump-sets-july-8-deadline-for-trade-deals-demands-best-offers-from-global-partners-by-wednesday-report">Trump Sets July 8 Deadline For Trade Deals, Demands Best Offers From Global Partners By Wednesday: Report</a>
Photo: Shutterstock
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45740592/trump-sets-july-8-deadline-for-trade-deals-demands-best-offers-from-global-partners-by-wednesday-report"> </a>

Is A Bond-Market Crash Coming? Jamie Dimon, BlackRock, Ray Dalio And Others Sound The Alarm

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/2025-06-02_08h34_04.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Gas Over Bond Fire</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-jamie-dimon-bond-market-steel-tariffs-tlt-spy-mc-06022025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The chart shows bonds recently fell below the danger zone into zone 4 (support).</li>
<li>The chart shows there has been a relief rally, bringing bonds back up above zone 4.&nbsp; The relief rally in bonds helped the stock market rally.</li>
<li>Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), is the world's most respected banker.&nbsp; Dimon has poured gasoline on the fire that is raging in the bond market.&nbsp; Dimon sees a crack in the bond market sometime in the future.&nbsp; Unless there are substantial changes in the U.S. government's borrowing and spending, Dimon sees a reckoning for the U.S.</li>
<li>In our analysis, Dimon is right, but here is the key for investors – the timing of the reckoning is not predictable.  The government has enough power and money printing abilities to stave off any reckoning for years.  However, the bond market has the potential to be very powerful and also has the power to deteriorate quickly.  For example, the bond market reacted negatively when the House passed President Trump's "big beautiful bill."  The reason for the bond market's reaction was that the bill increased the deficit and borrowing.  It was the bond market's reaction that prevented the stock market from going to new highs.</li>
<li>When the reckoning happens, most investors will likely lose their shirts just like they lost big in 2008 when S&amp;P 500 lost 50%.</li>
<li>Steel stocks such as Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF), Nucor Corp (NUE), and Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) are surging this morning after President Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%.  Steel stocks overseas are plunging.   These tariffs are likely to prove catastrophic for steel mills in Canada.  The steel industry directly employs 23,000 Canadians and is responsible for another 100,000 jobs indirectly.</li>
<li>Blind money is the money that pours into the stock market on the first two days of a new month without any analysis and irrespective of market conditions.&nbsp; Most of the blind money is invested in the afternoon.&nbsp; Traders know this and they buy stocks in the morning to sell to blind money at a higher price in the afternoon.</li>
<li>ISM Manufacturing Index was released at 10am ET. </li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Oil</h4>
Oil is surging on a drone attack by Ukraine on air bases deep inside Russia, including Siberia.
Over the weekend, OPEC+ decided to raise production against objections from Russia.
In our analysis, OPEC+ raising production is helping move oil prices higher because U.S. shale producers may produce less if prices go lower.  Moreover, the OPEC+ production increase is inline with expectations.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Long Ideas

Market Summary

Sector ETFs

Prudent Investors Pay Attention; World's Most Respected Banker Pours Gas Over Bond Fire; Oil Surges

After delivering its strongest monthly performance since November 2023, Wall Street entered June on a cautious note, with mounting geopolitical tensions and new trade tariffs clouding investor <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/06/45722678/magnificent-seven-closed-a-blockbuster-may-added-nearly-2-trillion-in-market-value">appetite for risk assets.</a>
President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will be doubled to 50% starting June 4, reigniting trade tensions with China. Beijing responded by accusing Washington of seriously violating trade agreements and pledged to take strong measures to defend its interests.
The renewed dispute ignited a rally in precious and industrial metals. Aluminium prices climbed 2.5%, copper gained 3%, and silver soared 4.6%, marking its best daily performance since September 2024. Gold also caught a bid, rising 2.8% to $3,327 per ounce, its highest level since May 8, as investors sought safe-haven protection.
Russia's war with Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrainian drones striking airfields deep inside eastern Siberia. Moscow responded with one of its largest missile and drone barrages yet.
The geopolitical flare-up sent oil prices up 3.5% to $64 a barrel, shrugging off OPEC+'s announcement of a 411,000 barrels-per-day production hike starting in July.
Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas prices spiked 7% as traders priced in a potential increase in LNG demand from Europe.
On the macro front, the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) revealed a deeper-than-expected contraction in May. Price pressures remained elevated, hovering near their highest<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45724821/trumps-manufacturing-narrative-weakens-as-may-data-shows-sharper-contraction-stubborn-inflation"> levels in three years.</a>
Selling pressure resumed in the Treasury market, with the yield on the 30-year U.S. bond rising 6 basis points to 4.98%. 
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.5%, reflecting losses in long-duration bonds. At the same time, the U.S. dollar softened, with the dollar index falling to 98.7, its lowest in over a week.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 1.3% to $104,000, continuing its pullback from recent highs. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %Chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,375.40</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,062.80</td>
<td>-0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,902.74</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,044.33</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:30 p.m.</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) flattened at $589.38.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) eased 0.4% to $421.10.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.2% to $520.50.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) was unchanged at $205.15.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 1.4%; the&nbsp;Industrials&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) was up 0.9% by midday trading. Bank of America analyst Ronald Epstein upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target to a Street-high $260. </li>
<li>Stocks reacting to earnings reports included The Campbell&#8217;s Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPB#NYSE">CPB</a>) and Science Applications International Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAIC#NASDAQ">SAIC</a>) down 0.6% and 14%, respectively. </li>
<li>The top three performers in the S&amp;P 500 were commodity-linked stocks, with Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLD#NASDAQ">STLD</a>) surging 9.6%, Nucor Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUE#NYSE">NUE</a>) rising 8.1% and Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) gaining 5.5%.</li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45721053/get-ready-to-pay-the-price-of-tariffs-ge-is-already-passing-costs-to-customers">Get Ready To Pay The Price Of Tariffs: GE Is Already Passing Costs To Customers </a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

SAIC

STLD

Stocks Stall, Commodities Rocket As Trade, Geopolitical Tensions Resume: What's Driving Markets Monday?

President Donald Trump had promised a manufacturing renaissance, but after a hopeful start to his new term, sentiment in the sector is now sliding fast, with data showing another contraction in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">factory activity in May.</a>
The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index edged down to 48.5% in May from 48.7% in April, signaling the fastest pace of contraction since late 2024.
The outcome surprised economists, who expected a reading of 49.5%. It underscores persistent weakness in industrial production just months after a brief February rebound.
&#8220;In May, U.S. manufacturing activity slipped further into contraction after expanding only marginally in February,&#8221; said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stubborn Inflation On The Input Side As Tariffs Bite</h3>
Even as output softens, cost pressures are refusing to ease. The Prices Index remained in increasing territory at 69.4%, just slightly below April's 69.8%, and still at levels not seen in three years. That reflects ongoing supply chain bottlenecks, port delays, and the lingering effects of tariffs.
Inventories have also swung into contraction, while supplier deliveries remain sluggish. The Imports Index plunged by 7.2 points, showing a sharp decline in inbound goods, and hinting at weakened demand or procurement challenges linked to evolving trade policies.
New orders continued to shrink for the fourth month in a row, registering 47.6%, though slightly better than April's 47.2%. Meanwhile, the Backlog of Orders Index showed some recovery from 43.7% to 47.1%, though it remains in contraction territory.
Despite a slight increase in the Employment Index from 46.5% to 46.8%, manufacturing jobs are still shrinking. Companies are cutting headcounts, often favoring layoffs over attrition for quicker cost reduction.
In the words of a transportation equipment executive, "There is continued softening of demand in the commercial vehicle market, primarily related to higher prices and economic uncertainty." 
The respondent added &#8220;the impact of ever-changing trade policies of the current administration has wreaked havoc on suppliers' ability to react and remain profitable.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar Drops, Bond Yields Rise</h3>
The U.S. dollar index, tracked by Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), fell to 98.7 levels during Monday&#8217;s morning trading in New York, its lowest since April 23, as traders weigh weaker economic momentum.
Meanwhile, long-duration bonds sold off, with yields on the 30-year Treasury note climbing 5 basis points to 4.97%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.2%, as concerns over U.S. debt trajectory persist. 
Equity markets also started the week on a downbeat tone. The S&amp;P 500 index slid 0.5%, reflecting concerns that persistent cost inflation could squeeze corporate margins further.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/06/45722678/magnificent-seven-closed-a-blockbuster-may-added-nearly-2-trillion-in-market-value">Magnificent Seven Closed A Blockbuster May, Added Nearly $2 Trillion In Market Value</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Trump's Manufacturing Narrative Weakens As May Data Shows Sharper Contraction, Stubborn Inflation

Rising tariffs could reignite inflation while shifts in global investor confidence may undermine the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status, according to the Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes, which reflect growing concern <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">over lasting economic headwinds.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs And Inflation: A Risky Combination</h3>
Participants agreed inflation had eased since its 2022 peak but remains "somewhat elevated" and could accelerate due to new trade barriers. 
"Participants judged that it was likely to be boosted by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded those effects," the minutes stated. 

Reports from businesses and surveys suggest that "firms generally were planning to either partially or fully pass on tariff-related cost increases to consumers."
Some participants warned that even firms unaffected by tariffs might use the price environment as cover to raise their own.
Several Fed officials noted rising short-term inflation expectations in markets and surveys, which could pressure firms to keep raising prices. 
Although long-term expectations remain anchored, the risk of upward drift remains. "Some participants saw the risk that they could drift upward, which could put additional upward pressure on inflation," according to the minutes.
Tariffs on intermediate goods and related supply chain disruptions were seen as potentially contributing to "a more persistent increase in inflation," echoing the kind of price stickiness seen during the pandemic era.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Assets And Financial Volatility: A Growing Concern</h3>
Multiple participants raised alarms over financial market behavior in April, highlighting that "heightened volatility" had emerged across asset classes. 
Particularly notable was the unusual pattern of longer-term Treasury yields rising while the dollar depreciated, even as equity prices fell.
Such a divergence, they said, could signal deeper shifts. 
"Participants noted that a durable shift in such correlations or a diminution of the perceived safe-haven status of U.S. assets could have long-lasting implications for the economy."
These concerns intersect with broader financial vulnerabilities. While household and corporate balance sheets appear healthy, some participants flagged "high levels of leverage at hedge funds" and potential risks from the private credit market. 
They added that higher rates or an economic downturn could amplify these issues.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Labor Market: Resilient But At Risk</h3>
The Fed found labor market conditions to be "broadly in balance," with unemployment stable and layoffs low. But some businesses have started "limiting or pausing hiring because of elevated uncertainty," and participants acknowledged a growing risk of labor market weakness in the months ahead.
Importantly, officials downplayed the labor market as a major inflation driver for now. "Several participants commented that labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economic Growth: Stable, But Threatened by Policy Uncertainty</h3>
The Fed recognized solid economic momentum, with consumer spending strong in March and private domestic final purchases—a key growth measure—rising in the first quarter. Yet, real GDP dipped slightly, possibly due to statistical quirks involving a surge in pre-tariff imports.
Even so, sentiment is softening. "Several participants noted that their contacts or surveys reported sharp declines in business sentiment," and many firms are delaying capital expenditures. Retailers, manufacturers and small businesses appear most exposed to tariff pressures.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks remained broadly unchanged in reaction to the minutes, with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) still down 0.1% for the day. 
Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds slightly softened to 4.98%, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) trimming session losses.
The dollar held onto session gains, with the U.S. dollar index, which is tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), up 0.3%. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45644145/nvidia-stock-is-bullish-ahead-of-q1-earnings-but-will-h20-chip-woes-dampen-the-party">Nvidia Bullish Ahead Of Q1 Earnings, But Will H20 Chip Woes Dampen The Party?</a>
Photo: Shutterstock
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45644145/nvidia-stock-is-bullish-ahead-of-q1-earnings-but-will-h20-chip-woes-dampen-the-party"> </a>

Federal Reserve Minutes Flag Tariff-Driven Inflation, Eye US Market Volatility As Economic Risk

A major gold exchange-traded fund recorded its steepest capital exodus in nearly three years this May, casting doubts over investor appetite for traditional safe-haven assets—but some analysts suggest the bull cycle <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">is far from over.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">$2.1 Billion Outflows Rock SPDR Gold ETF</h3>
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) saw outflows totaling $2.1 billion in May, marking its worst monthly withdrawal since July 2022. 
The sell-off follows three straight months of heavy inflows, during which the fund attracted approximately $7.5 billion, reflecting a major reversal in sentiment.
The outflows come as gold prices moved sideways in May, set to close the month broadly unchanged after a robust four-month rally that pushed prices to a record high of $3,500 an ounce in mid-April.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="535" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/28091555/image-364-1024x535.png" alt="" class="wp-image-929914" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/28091555/image-364-1024x535.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/28091555/image-364-300x157.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/28091555/image-364-768x401.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/28091555/image-364-1536x803.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/28091555/image-364-2048x1070.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US-China Truce Dampens Demand For Gold</h3>
A key reason behind the fading appetite for gold appears to be the May 12 trade agreement between the U.S. and China, which saw both nations slash tariffs by 115 percentage points and resume negotiations. 
That same day, gold plunged 2.7%, its sharpest daily decline since November 2024. With geopolitical fears cooling, some traders may be reallocating capital away from defensive assets like gold.
The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), is up 6.7% in May, eyeing its strongest month since November 2023, reflecting investor shift towards riskier assets. 
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) reached record highs at $112,000, and is up 16% for the month. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Long-Term Bull Run Still Intact?</h3>
Despite May's weakness, gold remains one of 2025's standout assets. In the first five months of the year, gold has rallied 26%, outperforming all major asset classes. 
For comparison, the S&amp;P 500 is up just 0.6%, the U.S. dollar is down 8%, long-dated Treasuries – tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) – have fallen 3%, and Bitcoin has gained 16%.
Gold's current bullish wave dates back to October 2022, from which prices have doubled. In the past 14 months, gold closed 11 months in positive territory—a clear indication of sustained bullish momentum.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Expert Views: Has Gold Peaked Or Is More to Come?</h3>
"It's difficult to work out what gold may do next," said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation. He noted that gold's MACD (moving average convergence divergence) momentum indicator has retreated from overbought levels, signaling potential upside. 
"While this means that gold has the potential to rally from here&#8230;it could be that gold has already topped."
Still, structural demand trends are giving bulls hope.
Goldman Sachs Research expects prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, driven by safe-haven buying and central bank diversification.
 "Long gold positions sharply improve risk-adjusted portfolio returns during periods where U.S. institutional credibility is challenged," Daan Struyven, commodity analyst at Goldman Sachs, said. 
He highlighted rising public debt and geopolitical fragmentation as key long-term catalysts for higher gold prices. According to Struyven, if private investors shift even a small portion of assets from equities or Treasuries to gold, the price could exceed $4,000 by mid-2026.
Another persistent tailwind is central bank gold demand, which surged after Western sanctions froze Russia's reserves in 2022. Emerging markets, underweight in gold relative to developed peers, are expected to keep buying aggressively. 
Struyven said this trend could account for a 21% base-case gold return by mid-2026.
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45622854/trump-may-be-smoking-in-the-dynamite-shed-as-the-big-beautiful-bill-drives-bond-yields-higher">Trump May Be &#8216;Smoking In The Dynamite Shed&#8217; With The Big, Beautiful Bill Pressuring Yields Higher</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Gold ETF Bleeds Money At Fastest Pace In 3 Years — Is The Safe-Haven Trade Over?

2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/fomc">連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合</a>と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。
このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。
2024年第1四半期の3ヶ月間にわたり期待を上回るインフレ率の読書が続いたが、4月のデータは物価<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38842603/us-inflation-falls-as-expected-in-april-bolsters-fed-rate-cut-bets">プレッシャーが緩和され、予測に合致した。</a>
このためCPIデータは、インフレ率が続く低下傾向を示しているのかどうかを確認する上で極めて重要だ。これがあれば、連邦準備制度理事会の2％の物価目標を達成する希望を支えることになる。
このため、水曜日午前8時30分に労働統計局から発表される5月のインフレ報告書の重要性が増している。
5月のインフレ報告書の結果は、同日のプレスカンファレンス中に行われるジェローム・パウエル（Jerome Powell）議長の声明にも大きな影響を与えるだろう。
柔らかいインフレ率の読書は、今年の後半に利上げが行われる可能性を補強する一方、予想を上回るインフレ率はより積極的なアプローチを必要とし、おそらく長期間金利を高めに維持する必要があることを繰り返す可能性がある。
市場参加者は現在、9月の利上げの可能性を50-50で見積もっており、年末までに完全に価格が大きく下落することを期待していない。
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39252500/fed-meeting-preview-economists-predict-steady-rates-in-june-fewer-cuts-ahead">Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5月のインフレ報告書のプレビュー：経済学者の予想</h3>
<ul>
<li>Econodayが収集した経済学者の予想によると、全体の見出しの年間インフレ率は3.4％で横ばいになると予想されている。</li>
<li>総合的なCPIは、4月の0.3％の上昇から0.1％上昇すると予想されている。</li>
<li>食品およびエネルギー価格の変動を除いた年間のインフレ率は、0.3％の月次の上昇と、4月から変わらない3.6％で推移すると予想されている。</li>
</ul>
ゴールドマンサックスのエコノミスト マヌエル・アベカシス氏は、コンシューマーエレクトロニクスやパーソナルケアなどの分野でのインフレ率の低下が報告されると予想しており、5月のデータに反映されるという見方だ。彼はまた、自動車保険料の持続的な上昇も予測しているが、ペースは徐々に遅くなり、家賃やオーナーの同等の家賃（OER）のインフレ率は横ばいで推移すると予想している。
アベカシス氏は、「今後、2024年の終わりまでの数ヶ月間、月次コアCPIインフレ率は0.2〜0.3％の範囲内に留まると予想している。 2024年12月の年間コアCPIインフレ率は3.5％、コアPCEインフレ率は2.8％と予測している」と述べた。
著名なベテラン市場アナリストのエド・ヤーデニ氏は、5月のCPI報告書が依然としてインフレが抑制されていることを確認すると見ている。
「クリーブランド連銀のインフレ・ナウキャスティング・モデルによると、5月のヘッドラインおよびコアCPIは、前年比でそれぞれ3.36％および3.55％上昇し、これは2021年4月以来の最低の年間コアインフレ率読書となる」とYardeni氏は述べている。
ヤーデニ氏は、住居のインフレ率と中古車の価格の低下を予想しており、自動車関連の他の消費者価格が安定することを期待している。
米国銀行の経済学者マイケル・ゲープン氏は、5月の報告書が4月の好調な推移を継続すると見ている。
ゲープン氏は、「1月から3月までの月次コアCPIインフレ率が0.4％と平均した後、4月には方向性が変わった。 我々は5月のコアCPIとヘッドラインCPIがそれぞれ0.3％と0.1％の上昇となり、年間インフレ率はそれぞれ4.6％と34％で4月と同じになると予想している」とゲープン氏は語った。
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">過去のCPI報告書に対する市場の反応</h3>
2024年5月15日にCPI報告書が発表され、これは、株式、債券、金、および投機的資産を巡る株式市場の反発を引き起こした。
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500は、この日に SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）で1.2％上昇した。</li>
<li>テクヘビーなナスダック100は、 Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）で1.6％上昇した。</li>
<li>長期国債利回りは下がり、 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>）は1.4％上昇した。</li>
<li>金は SPDR Gold Trust（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）で1.3％上昇した。</li>
<li>ビットコイン（CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は7.4％上昇し、2か月間で最高の1日となり、今年の最高の3番目の読書を記録した。</li>
<li>Invesco DB USDインデックスブリッシュファンドETF（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>）がドルの指標として下落し、0.7％下がり、2023年12月中旬以来の最悪の1日の性能を記録した。</li>
</ul>

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