iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

最新ニュース iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the bonds of the underlying index and at least 95% of its assets in U.S. government bonds. The underlying index measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years.

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2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。

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Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, on Friday cautioned&nbsp;that the government will reach&nbsp;its borrowing limit on Tuesday, necessitating the use of &#8220;extraordinary measures&#8221; to prevent a potential default.
What Happened: Yellen revealed that the Treasury will commence the use of extraordinary measures starting January 21. The duration of these measures is uncertain, and Yellen has&nbsp;urged Congress to raise or&nbsp;suspend the debt limit to safeguard the nation&#8217;s credit, Reuters reported. 
&#8220;The period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. Government months into the future.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43072685/tim-cook-reveals-apple-watch-saved-his-fathers-life-by-alerting-emergency-services-but-his-father-more-upset-because-of-this">Tim Cook Reveals Apple Watch Saved His Father&#8217;s Life By Alerting Emergency Services, But His Father &#8216;More Upset&#8217; Because Of This</a>
Yellen announced the suspension of investments in two government employee benefit funds until March 14, aiming to restore borrowing capacity under the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling. As of last Thursday, the Treasury's borrowings had reached $36.08 trillion.
This suspension will affect new investments that are not immediately required to pay benefits from the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund. Once the debt ceiling is either raised or suspended, these funds will need to be replenished.
Yellen has urged Congress to raise or suspend the debt limit to maintain the full faith and credit of the U.S. This issue with the debt ceiling presents an early challenge for Yellen&#8217;s anticipated successor, Scott Bessent, who is nominated by Trump for the Treasury position.
The Treasury has a range of extraordinary balance sheet measures available to prevent default, which could last for several months depending on tax revenues. However, failing to raise, suspend, or eliminate the debt limit could prevent the Treasury from meeting all its obligations, leading to potentially severe economic consequences.
Why It Matters: This announcement comes at a time when Yellen&#8217;s tenure has been marked by significant challenges. Earlier this month, it was reported that Yellen&#8217;s computer was hacked by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/01/43048422/janet-yellens-computer-hacked-by-chinese-hackers-attackers-obtain-law-enforcement-sensitive-data-by-targeting-us-treasury-department">Chinese state-sponsored hackers</a>, who accessed &#8220;Law Enforcement Sensitive&#8221; data by targeting the U.S. Treasury Department.
Yellen&#8217;s short-term debt strategy has also been a topic of concern, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42808340/janet-yellens-short-term-debt-strategy-sparks-warnings-for-trump-administration-your-costs-explode-and-buyers-could-balk-says-expert">with experts warning </a>that it could lead to significant market turbulence as President-elect&nbsp;Donald Trump&nbsp;prepares to take office. This strategy, which involves rolling over short-term debt instead of issuing longer-dated bonds, has been criticized for potentially setting up a crisis for the incoming administration.
Meanwhile, in December, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) experienced record outflows of $5.5 billion, as 30-year Treasury yields climbed 40 basis points to 4.855%, marking their highest level in more than a year.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43072303/mark-zuckerberg-stands-to-gain-from-tiktoks-us-ban-analysis-shows-meta-could-reap-billions-in-ad-revenue" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Mark Zuckerberg Stands To Gain The Most From TikTok's US Ban: Meta Could Reap Billions In Ad Revenue</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a> and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo by Dustin Blitchok

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Janet Yellen Warns US Could Hit Debt Ceiling On Tuesday, Suspends Investments In 2 Government Employee Benefit Funds

Investors may be underestimating Donald Trump&#8216;s potential push for fiscal discipline, making long-term bonds and rate-sensitive sectors an attractive bet, according to Bank of America&#8217;s chief <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">investment strategist Michael Hartnett. </a>
In his flagship &#8216;The Flow Show&#8217; report published Friday, Hartnett shifted to a bullish stance on bonds, stressing that the yield spike seen in recent months has created an opportunity. 
&#8220;20-year corporate bonds now yielding 6.3%, pension funds would be looking to park some of those gains in bonds,&#8221; he said, recommending investors &#8220;buy long duration bonds.&#8221;
Hartnett indicated the case for duration bonds – as commonly tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) – is strengthening as U.S. government spending slows, the Federal Reserve keeps a cautious stance on inflation, and yields approach peak levels.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is The Bond Bear Market Peaking?</h3>
The past two years have been brutal for fixed-income investors. 
Higher-for-longer interest rates and rising deficits crushed bond prices, and since the Federal Reserve's 100-basis-point interest rate cuts, bonds have remained the worst-performing asset class. 
Yet Hartnett sees the tide turning.
Historically, rolling 10-year returns from U.S. Treasuries have never been negative over the past 90 years. The market has reached what he calls the &#8220;peak in &#8216;anything but bonds&#8217; trade of the 2020s.&#8221;
The technical backdrop also suggests stabilization. The 30-year Treasury yield has hit a double top at 5%, a level Hartnett believes represents strong resistance.
If yields retreat toward 4%, a diversified low-risk bond portfolio—comprised of Treasuries, investment-grade debt, high-yield bonds, and emerging market credit—could generate 11%-12% annualized returns, Hartnett highlighted.
A higher-risk allocation, with greater exposure to junk bonds and preferred securities, could yield up to 15%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Fiscal Shift </h3>
As Hartnett highlighted, the U.S. budget deficit has risen to $7.3 trillion, fueling a 50% surge in nominal GDP, with government spending contributing significantly to economic growth.
Yet, according to the expert with the Fed prioritizing inflation control and Trump likely pushing for spending cuts, deficits could shrink, reducing upward pressure on yields. 
&#8220;We say Trump&#8217;s need for &#8216;smaller government&#8217; = &#8216;twin peak&#8217; in 5% bond yields,&#8221; Hartnett said.
Scott Bessent, Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, made it clear during his Senate confirmation hearing on Thursday that tackling government spending <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/43041207/5-things-investors-need-to-know-about-scott-bessents-economic-policies-as-he-faces-senate-grilling-for-treasury-job">will be a top priority.</a>
&#8220;We have a spending problem,&#8221; he said, emphasizing the need for significant reductions in government outlays.
Bessent indicated runaway spending as a key reason he joined the Trump campaign, signaling his commitment to aggressive fiscal tightening. 
&#8220;One of the things that got me out from behind my desk and my quiet life in this campaign was the thought that this spending is out of control,&#8221; Bessent said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bond Market's Attractive Risk-Reward Profile</h3>
At current levels, the bond market presents what Hartnett describes as a &#8220;very good&#8221; risk-reward profile. 
A scenario where yields drop 100 basis points (1 percentage point) could generate strong returns, while even a rise in yields may not severely dent total performance. 
With yields near 5%, the worst may be over for bonds, according to Hartnett&#8217;s calculations. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Portfolio Type</th>
<th>Current Yield (%)</th>
<th>Duration</th>
<th>Convexity</th>
<th>1-Year Return (If Yields Drop 100bps)</th>
<th>2-Year Return (If Yields Drop 100bps)</th>
<th>1-Year Return (If Yields Rise 100bps)</th>
<th>2-Year Return (If Yields Rise 100bps)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Low-risk bond portfolio</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>12%</td>
<td>17%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>High-risk bond portfolio</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>15%</td>
<td>22%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Bank of America</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Which Sector ETFs Stand To Benefit?</h3>
Investors looking to position for lower yields should consider rate-sensitive exchange-traded funds. 
Hartnett's report highlights opportunities in:
<ul>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>): Lower mortgage rates could revive housing demand.</li>
<li>Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>): Defensive, dividend-paying stocks tend to outperform in a falling rate environment.</li>
<li>Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>): Banks benefit from a steepening yield curve and deregulation.</li>
<li>SPDR S&amp;P Biotech ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XBI#NYSE">XBI</a>): Growth stocks, including biotech, typically gain as borrowing costs decrease.</li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42990155/5-yields-fuel-demand-treasury-etfs-despite-bond-market-pain-relief-rally">5% Yields Fuel Demand For Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Despite Bond Market Pain: Is A Relief Rally On The Horizon?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Regulations

Specialty ETFs

'Buy Long Duration Bonds,' Says Bank Of America Strategist: 4 ETFs To Watch As Trump's Deficit Fight Unfolds

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/2025-01-15_08h43_48.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bonds Are The Leading Indicator</h4>
A chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>On January 10th, we wrote in the Morning Capsule:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Bonds are now very oversold.&nbsp; For this reason, bonds may see a technical bounce.&nbsp; The bounce in bonds means yields pulling back.&nbsp; If yields pull back, the stock market will rally.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that bond ETF TLT previously touched the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds rallied on cooler core CPI.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds are now close to the bottom band of the lower resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that bonds were very oversold prior to the rally.</li>
<li>There was aggressive buying in the stock market yesterday, primarily on the rally in bonds.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The outsized rally yesterday was exaggerated for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>Positioning of Wall Street.&nbsp; Positioning is a very important market mechanic.&nbsp; Understanding positioning gives you an edge.</li>
<li>A vicious short squeeze occurred as many funds were positioned for a drop in the stock market.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Here is another indication of extreme positive sentiment.&nbsp; The market focused on 0.1% cooler core CPI but totally ignored the headline CPI that was hotter.&nbsp; The headline CPI includes food and energy.&nbsp; Prudent investors should note that people are still eating food and putting gas in their cars.&nbsp; Gas prices are going up.&nbsp; Is inflation really tamed as the stock market believed yesterday?&nbsp; Looking forward, insurance costs for consumers are also going to go up after the Los Angeles fires.&nbsp; The rise in insurance costs will not be limited to Los Angeles but will be felt across the country.</li>
<li>Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) is the largest semiconductor manufacturer in the world. Taiwan Semiconductor is the manufacturer of semiconductors for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>). Taiwan Semiconductor reported blowout earnings on continued AI demand.&nbsp; This is bringing more enthusiasm to AI stocks.</li>
<li>The meme crowd is rushing headlong into quantum computing stocks such as IONQ Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IONQ#NYSE">IONQ</a>), Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QUBT#NASDAQ">QUBT</a>), D-Wave Quantum Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QBTS#NYSE">QBTS</a>), Rigetti Computing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGTI#NASDAQ">RGTI</a>), SEALSQ Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LAES#NASDAQ">LAES</a>), and Arqit Quantum Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARQQ#NASDAQ">ARQQ</a>).&nbsp; The trigger is Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) declaring 2025 the year to be quantum ready.&nbsp; Microsoft has announced a new Quantum-Ready program.&nbsp; Manipulators are having a heyday taking advantage of the meme crowd, just like manipulators did with earlier meme crowd favorites like AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMC#NYSE">AMC</a>) and GameStop Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GME#NYSE">GME</a>).&nbsp; In GME and AMC, the meme crowd lost their shirts, but manipulators made money like bandits.&nbsp; Clearly, the meme crowd has not learned their lesson from the prior major losses.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, quantum computing has significant potential to make money, but it has to be done carefully and patiently.&nbsp; Under the present situation of quantum stocks becoming totally divorced from reality, the best course of action for investors is to be patient.&nbsp; It is a grave mistake to emulate meme crowd behavior and become prey of the manipulators.</li>
<li>Prudent investors pay attention to retail sales because the US economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; Retail sales data is slightly weaker than expected:
<ul>
<li>Retail sales came in at 0.4% vs 0.5% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex Auto came in at 0.4% vs 0.5% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Weekly initial jobless claims are creeping up.&nbsp; Claims came at 217K vs 212K consensus.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc., NVDA, MSFT, and AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C and Meta Platforms Inc.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust.  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust.  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is rangebound trading just below 100,000.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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Bond Rally Drives Stock Market, Taiwan Semi Results Show AI Demand, Manipulators Having A Heyday With Quantum Computing

Wall Street staged a strong rebound on Wednesday, as mixed inflation data bolstered investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's continuation of easing cycle in 2025, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk">easing recent market anxieties.</a>
The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November&#8217;s 2.7% and aligning with economist forecasts. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased by 0.4%, up from November&#8217;s 0.3%, marking the sharpest monthly rise since March 2024.
The inflation report strengthened market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. The probability of a rate cut by June climbed to 63%, up from 55% the previous day, with December futures now pricing in a 50% chance of two rate cuts.
The S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.5% by midday trading in New York, and the Dow Jones followed suit with a similar gain, both supported by strength in financial stocks. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, rising 1.9%, while small-cap stocks posted a 1.7% gain.
Key financial giants, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BK#NYSE">BK</a>), and BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>), exceeded Wall Street's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43007354/big-banks-crush-q4-earnings-forecasts-financial-stocks-set-for-biggest-1-day-rally-since-trumps-election">fourth-quarter 2024 earnings expectations.</a>
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) surged nearly 2.2%, leading all S&amp;P 500 sectors and recording its strongest one-day gain in over two months.
In the bond market, yields on the 2-year Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell 9 basis points to 4.28%, while 30-year yields dropped 8 basis points to 4.89%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained 1.3% as bond prices rose.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), remained flat, with dollar strength against the euro offset by weakness versus the yen.
West Texas Intermediate — as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) — rallied 2%, hitting $80 a barrel during the day amid a stronger-than-expected drop in commercial crude stocks last week.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) jumped 2.6%, nearing $99,000, buoyed by optimism surrounding potential Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), gained 0.5%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,142.06</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,257.59</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,932.76</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,153.53</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:15 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011525&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 1.5% to $590.96.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 1.5% to $431.31.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rallied 1.9% to $514.49.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) increased 1.8% to $223.77.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, up 1.2%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Citigroup Inc. rallied over 7%, in reaction to stronger-than-expected earnings, marking the strongest performance within the S&amp;P 500 index.</li>
<li>Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRG#NASDAQ">ISRG</a>) rose 6.9% after RBC raised its 12-month price target to $641. </li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) shares climbed more than 5% after RBC increased its price target for the stock from $313 to $440, while reaffirming its outperform rating.</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43006771/bitcoin-up-to-99000-is-loving-inflation-data-release-xrp-dogecoin-follow-higher">Bitcoin Up To $99,000 &#8216;Is Loving&#8217; Inflation Data Release, XRP, Dogecoin Follow Higher</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Large Cap

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust

ISRG

TSLA

Wall Street Rallies As Treasury Yields Fall, Banks Smash Q4 Earnings, Oil Hits $80: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

Major indices rallied on Wednesday after December inflation data showed underlying price pressures slowing, reducing fears of a prolonged pause in interest rate cuts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk">by the Federal Reserve. </a>
The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November's 2.7%, matching economist forecasts. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased 0.4%, accelerating from the 0.3% surge in November and marking the largest monthly rise since March 2024.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.2% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.3%. Month-over-month, core prices gained 0.2%, in line with forecasts.
The inflation data boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. The probability of a rate cut by June rose to 68% from 55% the previous day, with December futures now indicating a 58% chance of two cuts by year-end.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Gains As Bond Yields Retreat, Financial Stocks Soar</h3>
The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – surged 1.5% in early New York trading, led by financial stocks after major banks reported strong fourth-quarter earnings.
JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BK#NYSE">BK</a>) and BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>) all topped earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter and released upbeat guidance, reiterating that the financial sector thrived heading to the end of last year.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) rose 2.2%, leading all S&amp;P 500 sectors, while the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) jumped 3.4%, reflecting strong performance among regional banks.
The Dow rose 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index outperformed, climbing 2.6%. Tech stocks, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), gained 1.7%, boosted by falling Treasury yields.
Yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points to 4.27%, while 30-year yields dropped 9 basis points to 4.88%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained 1.6% as bond prices rallied.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose 2% to over $99,000, supported by rising hopes for Fed rate cuts. Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), added 0.5%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Top Movers</h3>
S&amp;P 500 Gainers:
<ul>
<li>Texas Pacific Land Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TPL#NYSE">TPL</a>): +5.85%</li>
<li>BlackRock Inc.: +5.54%</li>
<li>Assurant Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIZ#NYSE">AIZ</a>): +5.49%</li>
<li>Bio-Techne Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECH#NASDAQ">TECH</a>): +5.36%</li>
<li>Citigroup Inc.: +5.16%</li>
</ul>
Nasdaq 100 Movers:
<ul>
<li>Copart Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPRT#NASDAQ">CPRT</a>): +4.62%</li>
<li>Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRG#NASDAQ">ISRG</a>): +4.60%</li>
<li>AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>): +4.43%</li>
<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>): +4.30%</li>
<li>The Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTD#NASDAQ">TTD</a>): +3.39%</li>
</ul>
Top Gainers In The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBWB#NYSE">KBWB</a>):
<ul>
<li>Citigroup Inc.: +5.27%</li>
<li>Wells Fargo &amp; Co.: +4.80%</li>
<li>Bank of New York Mellon Corp.: +4.35%</li>
<li>Western Alliance Bancorp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WAL#NYSE">WAL</a>): +4.13%</li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.: +4.02%</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43000684/jpmorgan-q4-earnings-shine-investment-banking-revenue-jumps-46-yy-jamie-dimon-says-inflation-may-persist-for-some-time">JPMorgan Chase Q4 Earnings: Investment Banking Revenue Jumps 46%, CEO Jamie Dimon Says &#8216;Inflation May Persist For Some Time&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Small Cap

Tech

CPRT

KBWB

PLTR

TECH

Stocks Rise On Core Inflation Slowdown, Banks Rally After Strong Q4 Earnings, Treasury Yields Plummet

The allure of 5% yields is driving investor inflows into long-dated Treasury ETFs, even as persistent bond market losses and rising macro uncertainties complicate <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">the interest-rate outlook.</a>
Last week, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) saw a staggering $1.5 billion in inflows, as etfdb.com data shows. 
Since the start of the year, TLT has accumulated $976 million in fresh capital, ranking it among the top 10 US-based ETFs for year-to-date inflows despite losing 2% this year following an 8% decline in 2024.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42988641/trump-wants-trade-partners-to-start-paying-announces-external-revenue-service-for-tariffs">Trump Wants Trade Partners To &#8216;Start Paying,&#8217; Plans External Revenue Service To Oversee Tariffs</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Long Bond Yields Approach Decade-High Levels</h3>
Investors appear unfazed by recent losses in Treasury-linked assets as they position themselves for yields that haven't been seen in years. The 30-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5%, a level not seen since October 2023 and up significantly from its September levels of around 4%.
Before October 2023, yields had not reached these levels since the summer of 2007.
This yield surge has been fueled by expectations of strong economic growth and a potential resurgence in inflation as Donald Trump&#8217;s new administration prepares to take office. 
Trump has proposed raising import tariffs—up to 60% on Chinese goods and 20% on other imports—policies that many economists have described as inflationary.
In addition, recent stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly on the labor market, has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated for an extended period. 
A hawkish Fed stance, combined with resilient economic growth, has created headwinds for bondholders but an attractive environment for income-focused investors seeking a risk-free 5% yield.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Investors See Value In Long-Dated Bonds</h3>
Despite negative returns, inflows into Treasury ETFs suggest that investors are looking beyond short-term price fluctuations and seeing value in locking in high yields. 
Sumit Roy, senior ETF analyst for etf.com, highlighted that TLT's inflows signal confidence in long-term Treasuries, even with significant losses over the past two years.
"The inflows suggest that some investors see value in long bonds with yields hovering at levels they haven't often seen this decade," Roy said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Next For Treasury Yields?</h3>
Investor attention will now shift to the December inflation report, which could set the tone for bonds in the coming weeks. A hotter-than-expected inflation print may pressure yields higher as traders price in fewer rate cuts for 2025.
Another key catalyst will come at the Fed meeting later this month, where policymakers will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2025. A hawkish Fed tone could push yields higher as markets further price out rate cuts this year. 
Alternatively, a more balanced approach could provide some relief, potentially capping Treasury yields at their current cycle highs.
Investors are also monitoring fiscal risks as former President Donald Trump prepares to take office again next Monday. His fiscal policy, which could include deficit spending and potential tariff adjustments, could weigh heavily on Treasury yields. Increased deficit spending could put upward pressure on bond yields, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors in long-term Treasuries.
However, with 30-year yields surging by 100 basis points—from 4% in September to the current 5%—investors may have already priced in a challenging inflation and deficit outlook. This could pave the way for a significant bond rally if economic data surprises to the downside or if concerns over the deficit ease.
With a duration of 15.97 years, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF implies that a one percentage point drop in long-dated yields could result in a nearly 16% gain for the fund.
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/42965857/oil-could-hit-90-goldman-sachs-says-trump-may-not-ease-sanctions-on-russia">Oil Could Hit $90, Goldman Sachs Says: &#8216;Trump May Not Ease Sanctions&#8217; On Russia</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

5% Yields Fuel Demand For Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Despite Bond Market Pain: Is A Relief Rally On The Horizon?

Market volatility is primed to intensify this week as traders await December's Producer Price Index data on Tuesday. The Consumer Price <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation#:~:text=CPI%20rises%202.7%25%20YoY%2C%20matching,inflation%20remains%20high%20at%203.3%25.">Index report will follow on Wednesday.</a>
With Wall Street's expectations for interest rate cuts hanging by a thread, stronger-than-expected inflation data could amplify concerns about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why December's Inflation Data Is Critical</h3>
The PPI measures input price changes faced by producers. It is closely watched as a precursor to consumer price inflation and a barometer of corporate profitability. Rising input prices often signal higher future consumer prices, though companies unable to pass on these costs to consumers may face margin pressures—a key concern as fourth-quarter earnings season kicks off.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42948649/goldman-sachs-warns-of-90-oil-risk-trump-may-not-ease-sanctions-once-he-takes-office">Oil Could Hit $90, Goldman Sachs Says: &#8216;Trump May Not Ease Sanctions&#8217; On Russia</a>
In November 2024, PPI rose 3% year-over-year, the highest since February 2023, up from October's 2.6% and beating economist forecasts. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.4% annually, also above expectations. 
The result rattled markets: 
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — falling 0.6%</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), slipped 0.7% on the release date.</li>
</ul>
High impact on volatility, as expectations for interest rates are now extremely sensitive on upcoming inflation data. This is so because the December labor market report confirmed a robust and strong job market, pushing many Wall Street analysts to revise their outlook for interest rate cuts.
Economists expect December's report to show continued inflationary pressures. PPI is forecast to rise from 3% to 3.4% year-over-year. Core PPI is projected to accelerate from 3.4% to 3.7%. On a month-over-month basis, overall PPI is expected to slightly decelerate from 0.4% to 0.3%. Core PPI is seen ticking higher from 0.2% to 0.3%.
"December's CPI and PPI are likely to show core consumer services inflation remains stuck well above 2.0%," said veteran Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni on Monday. 
On Friday, Bank of America's economist Aditya Bhave highlighted the risk of persistent inflation and resilient labor market as factors forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, potentially shifting focus from cuts to hikes.
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42944934/wall-street-slashes-interest-rate-cut-bets-after-jobs-data-are-hikes-back-on-the-table">Wall Street Slashes Interest Rate Cut Bets After Jobs Data: Are Hikes Back On The Table?</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Rising Yields And Weak Stocks Reflect Fed Uncertainty</h3>
The December labor market report, which showed continued strength with a robust jobs market, has already led several Wall Street analysts to revise their interest rate expectations. 
Markets are now pricing in a longer period of higher rates, with Fed cuts pushed further out into the future.
These shifting expectations have weighed heavily on stocks and bonds. 
The S&amp;P 500 has fallen over 5% in the past month, including a 3% drop last week. Tech stocks have been hit harder, with the Nasdaq 100 down 7% from mid-December highs.
Bond markets tell a similar story. Treasury yields have surged, dragging bond prices lower. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has fallen more than 10% since early December, entering correction territory.
December's inflation reports will be a key test for Wall Street's fragile expectations of interest rates. 
As inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed's path forward is becoming increasingly uncertain, keeping investors on alert for any macro-related update.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42948649/goldman-sachs-warns-of-90-oil-risk-trump-may-not-ease-sanctions-once-he-takes-office">Oil Could Hit $90, Goldman Sachs Says: &#8216;Trump May Not Ease Sanctions&#8217; On Russia</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Tuesday's Producer Inflation Report Could Stoke Market Volatility As Fed Path Remains Unclear

Wall Street analysts are rethinking their interest rate forecasts after December's unexpectedly strong jobs report shattered previous expectations for a slowing labor market, raising questions about the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Federal Reserve's next move.</a>
In a note shared Monday, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle adjusted his projections for Fed policy in 2025, cutting his expectations for three rate cuts to just two, and reducing the 2026 forecast from three cuts to one. 
"We made the change because the employment report alleviated some of the lingering concerns about recent labor market softening," Mericle said.
December's payroll employment surged by 256,000, well above the anticipated 160,000, while the unemployment rate ticked <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42912480/us-economy-adds-256000-payrolls-in-december-as-tight-labor-market-tops-forecasts-dollar-treasury-yields-spike">lower to 4.1% from 4.2%. </a>The data bolstered the case for a resilient labor market and complicated the path toward further monetary easing.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42940228/us-stocks-to-open-lower-as-index-futures-decline-analysts-see-a-buying-opportunity">US Stock Futures Indicate Lower Opening On Monday After Last Week&#8217;s Steep Fall</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hikes On The Horizon?</h3>
The strong labor market is forcing some analysts to reconsider the possibility of rate hikes instead of cuts. 
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave shook markets last Friday, saying, "Given a resilient labor market, we now think the Fed cutting cycle is over. Inflation is stuck above target," before adding, "the conversation <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42926956/bank-of-america-scraps-interest-rate-cut-calls-betting-markets-go-haywire-as-hiking-panic-mounts">should move to hikes."</a>
Bhave stressed that additional hikes could be on the table if year-over-year core PCE inflation surpasses 3% and inflation expectations begin to "de-anchor." His comments rattled investors, who had largely priced in a gradual easing of monetary policy.
While Goldman Sachs remains skeptical of rate hikes, particularly in response to one-off inflation drivers like tariffs, the bank warned of potential scenarios where inflation could rise meaningfully. 
Mericle indicated that "more extreme tariff scenarios than we include in our baseline, such as a universal 10% tariff, would raise consumer prices more substantially." However, he highlighted that such inflationary shocks would likely destabilize equity markets and reduce economic growth, making the case for hikes less plausible.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bond And Stock Markets React</h3>
The December jobs report and subsequent analyst notes sent shockwaves through financial markets. 
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni said payrolls&#8217; data "cemented investors' sense that the Fed should pause its easing." 
Both bond and stock markets reacted sharply, with the selloff reflecting a recalibration of expectations. Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds briefly hit the 5% mark, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down to 14-month lows.
Rising Treasury yields weighed on stocks. The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, has wiped out its post-election rally, 
"We're not surprised by this January correction," Yardeni said. 
"The markets are gaining a more realistic sense of the current situation, recognizing that interest rates will stay higher and normal for longer, while the economy remains resilient. A strong Q4 earnings season should help to restore shaken investors' confidence," the investor added.
Despite the turbulence, Yardeni indicates the market's shift could represent a healthy reset, aligning expectations with economic realities.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Do Fed Futures And Betting Markets Say?</h3>
Market-implied probabilities reveal growing uncertainty about the Fed's future moves. 
CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows only one fully priced-in rate cut for 2025, with a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by June, rising to 90% by September.
Betting markets add another layer of complexity. According to CFTC-regulated Kalshi, there's a 33% chance of a rate hike before the end of 2025. For every dollar wagered on this scenario, a bettor would earn $3 if Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprises markets with a hike before Jan. 1, 2026.
Uncertainty also clouds the outlook for cuts. Betting probabilities suggest a 23% chance of no cuts in 2025, a 22% likelihood of one cut, a 23% probability of two cuts and a 16% chance of three cuts.
<iframe loading="lazy" style="border: 0;" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widget/events-categorical/FEDHIKE?color_scheme=light&amp;widget_size=large&amp;utm_campaign=benzingawidget" width="100%" height="400px"></iframe>
Read Also: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42928629/us-labor-market-smashes-expectations-wall-street-erases-post-election-rally-as-interest-rateanxiety-grows-this-week-in-the-markets">US Labor Market Smashes Expectations, Wall Street Erases Post-Election Rally As Interest Rate Anxiety Grows: This Week In The Markets</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Wall Street Slashes Interest Rate Cut Bets After Jobs Data: Are Hikes Back On The Table?

The December jobs report jolted financial markets during early Friday trading. Stronger-than-expected employment growth and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1% raised fears the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for most of 2025.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">December Jobs Report Fuels Fed Hawkishness: Dollar Soars, Yields Jump </h3>
The U.S. economy added 256,000 new jobs last month, marking an acceleration from the downwardly revised 212,000 jobs added in November and sharply outpacing economist forecasts of 160,000, as tracked by TradingEconomics.
The December reading represented the strongest monthly job growth since March 2024, underscoring the continued resilience of the U.S. economy despite high interest rates and resurgent inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate ticked down from 4.2%to 4.1% in November, defying expectations of no change. Wages rose broadly in line with expectations, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.3% month-over-month, slowing slightly from November&#8217;s 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, wages climbed 3.9%, marginally below the 4% forecast.
Fed fund futures showed a steep decline in the probability of a March rate cut, with implied odds dropping to just 26%, down from 43% a day earlier, according to CME&#8216;s FedWatch tool.
Treasury yields rose sharply across the curve, reflecting a repricing of interest rate expectations. 
The two-year yield, closely tied to Federal Reserve policy expectations, jumped 11 basis points to 4.37%. The 10-year yield surged 10 basis points to 4.79%, its highest level since November 2023.
Notably, the most striking move came in the 30-year yield, which breached the 5% mark for the first time since October 2023. Before that, the last time 30-year yields surpassed this milestone was in August 2007. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropped 1.2% in premarket trading, highlighting the market's sensitivity to long-term rates.
The U.S. Dollar Index, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), surged 0.5% to 109.70, a level last seen in late October 2022. 
The greenback climbed 0.4% against the Japanese yen and 0.6% versus the euro, pushing the euro-dollar pair to a fresh 27-month low of 1.0250. The Sterling wasn&#8217;t spared, falling 0.7% to a 15-month low against the dollar.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks Slump Across The Board</h3>
Futures on major U.S. indices were down 1% across the board, as the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates rattled investors. All S&amp;P 500 sectors, except energy, traded in the negative premarket Friday.
Real estate, tracked by the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>), and technology, represented by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), both sank 1.4%. 
Rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and growth-heavy tech bore the brunt of the selloff as higher yields weighed on long-duration assets.
The one standout sector was energy, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) climbing 1.3%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Major Premarket Movers</h3>
Among energy giants, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) gained 1.67% to $152.81, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) rose 1.57% to $108.61 and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COP#NYSE">COP</a>) advanced 1.43% to $103.07, benefiting from a 3% spike in oil prices after Reuters reported thet U.S. is mulling stronger sanctions on Russia&#8217;s oil sector.
In contrast, rate-sensitive mega-cap tech stocks dragged the market lower. 
Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) fell 2.51% to $136.59, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) dropped 2.92% to $118.28 and American International Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIG#NYSE">AIG</a>) plunged 3.93% to $68.63, leading losses among financials.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/42901085/us-2025-recession-odds-plummet-good-news-or-warning-sign">US 2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Sector ETFs

Markets

XLRE

Dollar Soars To 27-Month Highs, 30-Year Yields Hit 5%, Stocks Tumble As Jobs Report, Oil Spike Darken Fed's Interest Rate Cut Hopes

The U.S. dollar extended its rally to a 14-month high and Treasury yields continued their relentless rise on Wednesday as speculation grew that President-elect Donald Trump is considering invoking sweeping emergency powers to implement new tariffs, fueling fears of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">inflation and policy uncertainty.</a>
According to an exclusive CNN <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/08/economy/trump-national-economic-emergency-tariffs/index.html">report </a>on Wednesday, sources familiar with the matter said Trump is mulling the use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to declare a national economic emergency.
This move could enable him to impose significant tariffs on imports without requiring congressional approval or the need to justify the tariffs on national security grounds.
Yet, sources told CNN that no final decision has been made regarding the declaration of a national emergency.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar's Remarkable Rally, 30-Year Yields Near 5% Danger Zone</h3>
A measure of the greenback strength, tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), climbed to the highest levels since November 2023, up for the sixth consecutive week. 
The euro fell 0.4% to $1.03 and the British pound slumped 1.2% to $1.2340, with the latter hitting its weakest level since April 2024.
The dollar has now rallied in 14 of the last 15 weeks as investors expect Trump&#8217;s tariffs to damage other currencies.
&#8220;Perhaps more than even during his last term of office, traders will need to pay close attention to everything coming from the new president,&#8221; said David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.
Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 4.95%, inching closer to the critical 5% mark. Yields on longer-dated bonds, highly sensitive to inflation expectations, signal renewed fears of rising costs fueled by Trump's tariff threats and their potential disruption of global supply chains.
&#8220;The incoming Trump administration&#8217;s policies can lead to increased market volatility,&#8221; wrote Bank of America Securities on Tuesday. 
The iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) – the world&#8217;s largest Treasury-linked exchange traded fund – has fallen by more than 7% since Trump&#8217;s election victory in November.
The last time 30-year Treasury yields crossed the 5% threshold was in October 2023, a level previously unseen since July 2007.
&#8220;Trump's proposed immigration and tariff policies will boost U.S. inflation temporarily, limiting the Fed's ability to cut interest rates,&#8221; said Capital Economics in a recent report.
&#8220;The probability of an equity drawdown has increased to almost 30%,&#8221; Goldman Sachs&#8217; analyst wrote in a report on Wednesday. Analysts Andrea Ferrario and Christian Mueller-Glissman highlighted that &#8220;most of the increase in drawdown probability has been driven by inflation momentum turning from negative to positive.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: 30-Year Treasury Yields Head Toward 5% Threshold</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="541" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/08093712/image-47-1024x541.png" alt="" class="wp-image-724153" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/08093712/image-47-1024x541.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/08093712/image-47-300x159.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/08093712/image-47-768x406.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/08093712/image-47-1536x812.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/08093712/image-47.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Behind Trump's Plan?</h3>
During a press conference on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, Trump called for aggressive measures to rebalance trade and geopolitical relationships with key partners, targeting Canada, Mexico, Europe and China. 
His comments included sharp criticisms of trade deficits, defense spending disparities, and alleged unfair practices.
On Canada, Trump said, &#8220;Why are we supporting a country with a $200 billion-plus deficit? Our military is at their disposal, and we give them so many subsidies.&#8221; 
He floated the provocative idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state if economic <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/events/25/01/42860583/trump-floats-canada-as-51st-us-state-says-hes-ready-to-use-economic-force-to-achieve-it">relations didn't improve.</a>
With Mexico, Trump reiterated his long-standing frustrations, stating, &#8220;We are going to put very serious tariffs on Mexico… drugs are coming through at record numbers.&#8221; He accused the Mexican government of failing to control cartels and migration flows into the U.S.
On European countries, Trump reiterated the call for increased defense expenditure, emphasizing that NATO members delinquent on meeting the 2% of GDP target would not receive U.S. military protection. He described the current benchmark as insufficient, saying, "It should be 5%, not 2%."
Trump also floated the idea of acquiring Greenland, cautioning Denmark about the possibility of imposing tariffs.
As for China, Trump expressed concern about the country&#8217;s influence in strategic areas like the Panama Canal and the Arctic. 
&#8220;China is at both ends of the Panama Canal. They're running it,&#8221; he said, calling for renewed U.S. focus on containing Beijing&#8217;s geopolitical ambitions.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42873182/us-private-businesses-add-122000-jobs-in-december-the-labor-market-downshifted-to-a-more-modest-pace-of-growth">US Private Businesses Add 122,000 Jobs In December: &#8216;Slowdown In Both Hiring And Pay Gains&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Asia

Emerging Markets

Eurozone

Currency ETFs

Dollar Hits 14-Month High, 30-Year Yields Near Critical Threshold As Trump Reportedly Mulls Economic Emergency Tariffs

Tuesday began as a calm day on Wall Street, but markets swiftly turned negative after the Institute for Supply Management released data highlighting an unexpected surge in price pressures within the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42850914/us-services-sector-growth-tops-forecasts-but-price-pressures-tariff-concerns-cloud-outlook">service sector for December.</a> 
The report reignited fears over persistent inflation and mounting concerns over the economic fallout from tariffs.
The ISM&#8217;s Services PMI rose to 54.1% in December, surpassing expectations and marking the third-highest reading of 2024. This figure signals continued expansion in the services industry. 
Yet the Prices Index, which reflects input costs for service providers, jumped sharply to 64.4%, up from 58.2% in November, significantly outpacing consensus estimates of 57.5%. This was the highest print since February 2023 and a clear sign that inflationary pressures are not easing as anticipated.
By midday, all major stock indices were trading lower. The Nasdaq 100 was hit particularly hard as rising Treasury yields soured risk sentiment, putting pressure on growth-oriented technology stocks. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond surged by 6 basis points to 4.91%, its highest level since November 2023, reflecting growing unease in the bond market. 
The sell-off extended to bond ETFs, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) falling by 1% on the day.
Amid this broader market weakness, only a handful of sectors managed to resist the selling pressure. Energy, materials and financials emerged as the outperformers.
In the commodities market, oil prices rebounded after earlier losses this week. West Texas Intermediate light crude climbed 1% to settle at $73.70 per barrel, recovering from Monday&#8217;s decline, while natural gas prices plunged 5%.
Precious metals saw modest gains, with gold up 0.6% and copper rising 1.1%, reflecting a cautious shift toward safer assets.
The rally in cryptocurrencies came to a sudden halt. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) dropped 5% to $97,000, poised to snap a six-session winning streak.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,615.09</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,938.52</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,251.46</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,279.82</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent010625&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.7% to $591.56.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;eased 0.1% to $426.93.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 1.3% to $517.59.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) dipped 0.6% to $223.03.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 1.6%; the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, down 1.4%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) tumbled more than 5%, reversing from fresh record highs reached at the market open and heading for its worst trading session since early September 2024. The sharp drop came despite upbeat commentary from Wall Street analysts following the chipmaker&#8217;s key announcements at CES 2025.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) fell over 4%, after Bank of America Securities lowered the stock rating from Buy to Neutral.</li>
<li>Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>) shares jumped 10.6% to $47.10 on Tuesday following the first reported bird flu death in the U.S. as the company works on developing a vaccine for the H5N1 virus.</li>
<li>Microstrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) tumbled by over 8% amid Bitcoin weakness. </li>
<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>) fell by over 6%, following Monday&#8217;s 5% drop ignited by a bearish Morgan Stanley research note.</li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42854849/are-regional-banks-the-next-big-opportunity-wall-street-analysts-bet-big-on-multiyear-rally">Are Regional Banks The Next Big Opportunity? Wall Street Analysts Bet Big On Multiyear Rally</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Movers

MRNA

MSTR

Stocks Sink As Bond Yields Soar, Nvidia Eyes Worst Day In 4 Months, Bitcoin Tumbles To $97,000: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

A stronger-than-expected December Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index reading highlights resilience in the U.S. services sector, but rising price pressures and looming tariff concerns are casting shadows over an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">otherwise optimistic economic picture.</a>
In a report released Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management revealed that the Services PMI rose to 54.1% in December 2024, beating economist forecasts of 53.3% and marking a robust two-point gain from November&#8217;s 52.1%.
The data underscores the sector's ongoing expansion, now at six consecutive months, with December's reading representing the third-highest level of the year.
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, said, "Nine industries reported growth in December, five fewer than the previous month's total. The Services PMI has expanded in 22 of the last 24 months dating back to January 2023."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Driving US Services Sector Growth?</h3>
The uptick in the Services PMI was primarily fueled by business activity and supplier deliveries. ISM&#8217;s Business Activity Index climbed to 58.2 in December from 53.7 in November, signaling heightened end-of-year activity. 
New orders also rose, with the corresponding index climbing to 54.2 from 53.7. 
Yet, employment growth was flat, with the Employment Index holding steady at 51.4—indicating modest hiring across the sector.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Price Pressures Resume, Tariff Worries Loom Large</h3>
Despite the optimism, a sharp rise in the Prices Index has raised concerns about inflationary pressures within the services sector. 
The index jumped to 64.4 in December from 58.2 in November, far exceeding consensus expectations of 57.5. Panelists cited input cost inflation, labor constraints, and tariff-related uncertainties as key drivers of price increases.
One of the more striking themes in the latest ISM survey was the emergence of tariff concerns as a key risk for businesses heading into 2025. 
While specifics remain uncertain, companies are preparing for potential trade policy changes as the Trump administration is set to impose new tariffs within weeks. 
Miller highlighted that "tariff concerns elicited the most panelist comments," suggesting businesses are bracing for possible supply chain disruptions or cost escalations.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Labor Market Data Remains Strong</h3>
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for November on Tuesday.
Job openings rose by 259,000 to 8.1 million, exceeding market expectations of 7.7 million. Vacancies were up for professional and business services by 273,000, finance and insurance by 105,000, and private educational services by 38,000. 
The number of job quits declined to 3.07 million, the lowest since August 2020. The data suggests that while businesses are actively hiring, worker sentiment remains cautious amid rising economic uncertainties.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction: Dollar Rallies, Bond Yields Surge</h3>
Financial markets reacted swiftly to the mixed economic data. 
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), climbed 0.3% by mid-morning trading Tuesday, partially recovering from Monday's losses.
Bond markets saw sharp moves, with yields on longer-dated Treasurys rising by 6-7 basis points. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 4.90%, its highest level since early November 2023, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down by 1%.
Rising yields fueled concerns in equity markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 7%, reflecting heightened investor anxiety over rising inflation and bond yields. 
All major indices slipped into negative territory, with the S&amp;P 500 down 0.4% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 falling 1%.
Within individual major stocks, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) dropped over 3%, while Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) slid nearly 4% following a downgrade to Neutral by Bank of America.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42825901/this-key-bond-market-gauge-predicted-major-wall-street-crashes-is-50-drop-looming-in-2025">This Key Bond Market Gauge Predicted Major Wall Street Crashes: Is 50% Drop Looming In 2025?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

US Services Sector Growth Tops Forecasts, But 'Tariff Concerns,' Price Pressures Cast A Shadow

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen&#8216;s strategy of relying heavily on short-term debt financing could create significant market turbulence as President-elect Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42777236/investors-dump-long-dated-treasury-etf-at-record-pace-ahead-of-trumps-white-house-return">prepares to take office</a>, according to financial experts and market data.
What Happened: Charles Gasparino, New York Post columnist, warned that Yellen&#8217;s approach of rolling over short-term debt instead of issuing longer-dated bonds has &#8220;masked the severity&#8221; of the federal deficit problem while potentially setting up a crisis for the incoming administration.
The Treasury Department under Yellen has shifted approximately 30% of government borrowing to short-term securities, up from 15% in 2023, according to analysis from Bear Traps Report. This strategy helped keep interest rates artificially low during Biden&#8217;s term but could backfire as these debts need refinancing at higher rates.
&#8220;Traders will demand much higher rates to issue long-term debt, which will blow out interest rates on credit cards, mortgages etc. That means recession or worse,&#8221; Gasparino wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Side note to my column; a few weeks ago I wrote about the other ticking time bomb&#8211;Yellen papering the deficit by rolling over short term debt <a href="https://t.co/YzR4LKRTgV">https://t.co/YzR4LKRTgV</a>. It&#39;s worth noting that the severity of the debt problem has been masked because Yellen didn&#39;t issue 10-year…
&mdash; Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) <a href="https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1875919713106038969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 5, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Market reactions are already visible. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) saw record outflows of $5.5 billion in December, while 30-year Treasury yields surged 40 basis points to 4.80%, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42777236/investors-dump-long-dated-treasury-etf-at-record-pace-ahead-of-trumps-white-house-return">reaching their highest level</a> in over a year.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42807883/microsoft-gave-bitcoin-a-miss-but-do-you-know-one-of-tech-giants-largest-shareholders-is-massively-bullish-on-the-apex-crypto">Microsoft May Have Given Bitcoin a Miss, but Did You Know One of Its Largest Shareholders Is Betting Big on the Top Crypto?</a>
Why It Matters: Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said &#8220;Bond vigilantes are sending a loud warning message&#8221; about fiscal concerns under the incoming administration. The 10-year Treasury yield has jumped from 3.6% in September to 4.6% in late December, a 25% increase that could significantly <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42720866/bond-vigilantes-send-loud-warning-message-as-treasuries-climb-to-may-highs-is-the-santa-rally-in-serious-doubt-heres-what-analysts-say">impact stock market performance</a>.
The situation presents an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42150805/trump-picks-hedge-fund-exec-scott-bessent-as-treasury-secretary-what-president-elects-choice-means-for-americas-economic-future">immediate challenge for Trump&#8217;s nominee</a> for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, who will need to address both the rolling short-term debt and a federal budget deficit that has contributed to $36 trillion in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/24/01/42755472/102-trillion-global-debt-the-u-s-and-china-lead-the-charge-what-you-need-to-know">total government debt</a>.
&#8220;Your costs explode and buyers could balk,&#8221; Gasparino cautioned, highlighting the potential double threat of higher refinancing costs and reduced market appetite for U.S. debt securities.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/42807107/israel-englanders-millennium-management-cuts-nvidia-stake-buys-10x-more-of-this-chip-stockwhats-brewing-in-the-70-billion-hedge-fund">Israel Englander&#8217;s Millennium Management Dumps Nvidia, Loads Up On Broadcom — Here&#8217;s What The $70 Billion Hedge Fund Sees</a></li>
</ul>
Image via World Bank / Brandon Payne
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Janet Yellen's Short-Term Debt Strategy Sparks Warnings For Trump Administration: 'Your Costs Explode And Buyers Could Balk,' Says Expert

Benzinga examined the prospects for<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas"> many investors&#8217; favorite stocks</a> over the last week — here&#8217;s a look at some of our top stories.
The Nasdaq and S&amp;P 500 ended a five-day losing streak on Friday, but the week closed with the S&amp;P down 0.48%, the Dow losing 0.60%, and the Nasdaq dropping 0.51%.
Rising Treasury yields, including a 30-year high of 4.8%, raised borrowing cost concerns and drove record December outflows from the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), as markets carried weak momentum <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42796485/goodbye-santa-rally-tesla-falters-on-deliveries-investors-flee-bonds-ahead-of-trumps-second-term-this-week-in-the-market">into the new year.</a>
Meanwhile, the U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in December, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbing to 49.3%, its highest since April 2024, though still marking the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42790042/us-manufacturing-activity-tops-expectations-in-december-rises-to-9-month-highs">ninth consecutive month of contraction.</a>
Benzinga provides daily reports on the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week&#8217;s most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bulls</h3>
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42751367/netflix-posts-record-debut-with-squid-game-season-2-heres-how-many-people-watched-show">Netflix Posts Record Debut With &#8216;Squid Game&#8217; Season 2: Here&#8217;s How Many People Watched Show</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/chris-katje">Chris Katje</a>, highlights Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFLX#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>) achieving 68 million views for &#8220;Squid Game&#8221; Season 2 in its first week, setting a company record, alongside NFL Christmas Day games driving additional subscriber engagement.
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/42758813/shytoshi-kusama-clears-the-air-on-shiba-inu-role-memecoin-rivalry-our-drive-was-to-overtake-dogecoin">Shytoshi Kusama Clears The Air On Shiba Inu Role, Memecoin Rivalry: &#8216;Our Drive Was To Overtake Dogecoin&#8217;</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/aniket-verma">Aniket Verma</a>, features Shytoshi Kusama clarifying that Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/shib/usd">SHIB</a>) was founded by Ryoshi, not him, and sharing the project's early vision to surpass Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>).
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/social-media/24/12/42734220/bill-ackman-sends-fannie-mae-freddie-mac-stocks-soaring-trump-likes-big-deals">Bill Ackman Sends Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Stocks Soaring: &#8216;Trump Likes Big Deals&#8217;</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/erica-kollmann">Erica Kollmann</a>, discusses Bill Ackman's bullish view on Fannie Mae (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FNMA#OTC">FNMA</a>) and Freddie Mac (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FMCC#OTC">FMCC</a>) stocks, citing their potential for large gains as conservatorship could end under Donald Trump's administration, with Ackman highlighting asymmetric upside for investors.
For additional bullish calls of the past week, check out the following:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/24/12/42709387/benzingas-stock-whisper-index-5-stocks-investors-secretly-monitor-but-dont-talk-about-yet">Benzinga&#8217;s &#8216;Stock Whisper&#8217; Index: 5 Stocks Investors Secretly Monitor But Don&#8217;t Talk About Yet</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/01/42769181/natural-gas-prices-surge-as-arctic-blast-freezes-us-3-stocks-on-the-move">Natural Gas Prices Surge As Arctic Blast Freezes US: 3 Stocks On The Move</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42777529/goldman-sachs-adds-3-stocks-to-conviction-list-flags-5-market-trends-to-monitor-in-2025">Goldman Sachs Adds 3 Stocks To &#8216;Conviction List,&#8217; Flags 5 Market Trends To Monitor In 2025</a>
The Bears
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42777950/teslas-first-sales-drop-splits-wall-street-2025-will-be-the-prove-it-year">Tesla&#8217;s First Sales Drop Splits Wall Street: &#8216;2025 Will Be The Prove It Year&#8217;</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/chris-katje">Chris Katje</a>, highlights Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) facing mixed analyst reactions after missing Q4 delivery estimates, with Wedbush's Daniel Ives forecasting a 20%-30% growth rebound in 2025, while Ross Gerber criticized reliance on discounts to boost sales.
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42735744/pharma-bro-martin-shkreli-predicts-doom-for-michael-saylors-microstrategy-as-stock-dips-below-300-in-after-hours-trading">Pharma Bro Martin Shkreli Predicts Liquidation Doom For MicroStrategy Amid Fall Below $300, Says Bitcoin Will Hit $250K Without Michael Saylor</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/aniket-verma">Aniket Verma</a>, features Martin Shkreli's warning of potential liquidation for MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) as its stock fell below $300, predicting Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) could hit $250,000 without the influence of its co-founder Michael Saylor.
&#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/12/42699274/boeing-engineers-leave-struggling-planemaker-for-space-companies-report">Boeing Engineers Leave Struggling Planemaker For Space Companies: Report</a>,&#8221; by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/anan-ashraf">Anan Ashraf</a>, highlights talent migration from Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) to firms like SpaceX and Blue Origin as engineer tenures drop, potentially delaying new aircraft development, though Boeing says its voluntary attrition rate remains low with competitive pay and benefits.
For more bearish takes, be sure to see these posts:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/42790373/apple-iphones-lose-ground-in-china-as-subsidies-boost-huawei-domestic-rivals">Apple iPhones Lose Ground In China As Subsidies Boost Huawei, Domestic Rivals</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/25/01/42791291/jetblue-fined-2-million-for-chronic-flight-delays-delta-united-rank-among-most-on-time-airlines">JetBlue Fined $2 Million For &#8216;Chronic Flight Delays&#8217;: Delta, United Rank Among Most On-Time Airlines</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/22/10/29205954/paul-tudor-jones-correctly-predicted-the-1987-stock-market-crash-heres-what-the-billion">Paul Tudor Jones Correctly Predicted The 1987 Stock Market Crash: Here&#8217;s What The Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Says Is Coming Next</a>
Keep up with all the latest breaking news and trading ideas by following<a href="https://twitter.com/Benzinga"> Benzinga</a><a href="http://twitter.com/Benzinga"> on Twitter</a>.
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Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Tesla, Netflix, MicroStrategy — And Shiba Inu Strives To Outpace Dogecoin In Crypto

With the start of the new year, investors bid farewell to the Santa Claus Rally, as the U.S. stock market extended its weak momentum into January, logging five consecutive losing sessions, the longest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/42780825/sp-500-falls-for-5th-straight-session-tesla-tumbles-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">negative streak since April.</a>
Just weeks before Donald Trump's second presidential term begins, a sense of uncertainty looms large as investors await clarity on policies that could reshape the American economy and beyond.
The bond market is flashing warning signs that could ripple across the economy. Treasury yields have continued their sharp ascent, with the 30-year yield hitting 4.8%, its highest level in over a year. Rising yields are often seen as a harbinger of higher borrowing costs and potential inflationary pressures, and investors are taking notice.
Reflecting this unease, a widely tracked long-dated Treasury exchange traded fund — the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) — saw record <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42777236/investors-dump-long-dated-treasury-etf-at-record-pace-ahead-of-trumps-white-house-return">monthly outflows in December</a>, a signal of how bond investors are bracing for volatility ahead of Trump's return to the Oval Office.
Higher bond yields typically challenge the stock market, as they make debt financing more expensive for companies while reducing the relative attractiveness of equities.
At the individual company level, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) suffered its worst weekly performance since late October after reporting 2024 deliveries that were 1% lower than the previous year, marking the first year-over-year decline in the company's history. Analysts view 2025 as a pivotal year for the EV leader to address concerns over demand, competition <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/42777950/teslas-first-sales-drop-splits-wall-street-2025-will-be-the-prove-it-year">and its growth trajectory.</a>
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President Joe Biden blocked the $14.9 billion takeover of United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>) by Japan&#8217;s Nippon Steel Corp, citing national security concerns. Following the decision, U.S. Steel shares plummeted on Friday, reflecting investor disappointment over the collapsed deal and the uncertainty surrounding <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/42787508/biden-blocks-14-9b-us-steel-takeover-shares-plunge">the company's future.</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Squid Game Mania</h1>
Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFLX#NASDAQ">NFLX</a>)&#8217;s &#8220;Squid Game&#8221; Season 2 shattered debut records, drawing over 100 million <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42751367/netflix-posts-record-debut-with-squid-game-season-2-heres-how-many-people-watched-show">global viewers within days.</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Ford Sales Surge</h1>
Automaker Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>) reported a 9% increase in total U.S. sales last quarter, driven by strong demand for electric vehicles <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/42791032/ford-shifts-into-high-gear-q4-total-us-sales-surge-9">and popular truck models.</a>
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Goodbye Santa Rally, Tesla Falters On Deliveries, Investors Flee Bonds Ahead Of Trump's Second Term: This Week In The Market

After much of 2024 marked by contraction, there are now brighter signs emerging from the tunnel of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">the U.S. manufacturing sector. </a>
Data revealed Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November and surpassing economists&#8217; expectations of 48.4%. 
The outcome marks the strongest reading since April 2024 and second consecutive month of improvement in the PMI, a trend not seen since September 2023. 
However, the index remains below the critical 50% threshold that separates expansion from contraction, reflecting the ninth consecutive month — and the 26 out of the last 27 — in contraction territory.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Key Manufacturing Metrics Show Encouraging Trends</h1>
While the headline PMI remains in contraction, some sub-indices suggest that momentum may be turning:
<ul>
<li>New Orders Index: Climbed to 52.5% in December, up from 50.4% in November. This is the second straight month in expansion territory after seven months of contraction.</li>
<li>Production Index: Jumped to 50.3%, up significantly from November's 46.8%, marking its return to expansion after six months of contraction.</li>
<li>Prices Index: Rose from 50.3% in November to 52.5%, indicating increasing prices paid by manufacturers.</li>
<li>Backlog of Orders Index: Improved from 41.8% in November to 45.9%, though still below 50%.</li>
<li>Employment Index: Fell to 45.3% from November's 48.1%, reflecting continued de-staffing in the sector.</li>
</ul>
&#8220;U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in December, but at a slower rate compared to November. Demand showed signs of improving, while output stabilized and inputs stayed accommodative,&#8221; Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, wrote in the report.
Fiore also highlighted that de-staffing trends may soon end, and the percentage of gross domestic product contracting in manufacturing has decreased from 66% in November to 52% in December — a sign that the slowdown is becoming less broad-based.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h1>
The U.S. dollar rebounded against major currencies, supported by the improving economic data. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), a proxy for dollar strength, trimmed its session losses to 0.1%.
The greenback has now rallied 9% since late September, significantly outperforming the broader stock market, which is up only 3% during the same period. 
The S&amp;P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — initially rose but gave back gains, weighed down by higher Treasury yields.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose to 4.80%, reversing overnight declines, and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) slipped 0.2%, holding near nine-month lows.
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Photo: Shutterstock

US Manufacturing Activity Tops Expectations In December, Rises To 9-Month Highs

Investors dumped a popular long-dated Treasury ETF at a record pace in December, fleeing the bond market as surging yields and fiscal uncertainty cast a shadow ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's return <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">to the White House.</a>
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), the largest Treasury-focused exchange-traded fund with $50 billion in assets under management, recorded $5.5 billion in outflows last month. 
This marks the fund's largest single-month outflows in its history, surpassing the $4 billion withdrawn during the pandemic-driven turmoil in March 2020.
On the performance front, the fund tumbled by 7.1% in December, recording the worst drop since September 2023. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: TLT ETF Witnessed Record Monthly Outflows In December</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="541" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/02151804/image-8-1024x541.png" alt="" class="wp-image-715974" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/02151804/image-8-1024x541.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/02151804/image-8-300x159.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/02151804/image-8-768x406.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/02151804/image-8-1536x812.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/02151804/image-8.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Yields Soar As Trump Policies Ignite Inflation Risks</h3>
Yields on 30-year Treasury bonds climbed sharply, gaining more than 40 basis points in December to close the year at 4.80%. That's the highest level in over a year, driven by concerns about rising inflation and shifting monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve, which delivered a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December, sounded hawkish in its accompanying guidance.
Officials signaled fewer rate cuts in 2025 than markets had expected and raised inflation forecasts to reflect upcoming administration policies.
&#8220;The&nbsp;Bond&nbsp;Vigilantes are sending a loud warning message,&#8221; said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, in a recent note. 
&#8220;They aren&#8217;t convinced Donald Trump, the new sheriff coming to town, will maintain fiscal law and order any better than the old sheriff. They are also losing their confidence in Jerome Powell, the deputy in charge of monetary law and order,&#8221; he added.
In a recent report, Bravos Research highlighted that&nbsp;the 10-year&nbsp;Treasury&nbsp;yield&nbsp;rocketed from 3.6% in September to 4.6% in late December, implying a 25% increase in just 100 trading sessions.
&#8220;Moves like this are rare and have massive implications for the stock market,&#8221; the Bravos Research Team wrote. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump's Policies Add To Market Jitters</h3>
Investor anxiety over Trump's incoming administration added another layer of complexity to the bond market.
Trump has floated the idea of scrapping the federal debt ceiling, a controversial move that could enable unchecked government borrowing and stoke inflationary pressures.
Such a policy would effectively remove a key restraint on federal deficits, raising alarm among bond investors already bracing for fiscal expansion.
"There's now more bad reasons for the rise in yields," Yardeni stated. 
As the expert highlighted, while stronger-than-expected economic data in the second half of 2024 initially pushed bond yields higher, the recent decline in the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has shifted focus to structural concerns, such as persistent inflation risks and growing deficits.
Investors are also bracing for potential trade turbulence, as Trump has pledged to impose a universal 10% tariff and hike tariffs on Chinese imports to 60%. These measures, if enacted, could exacerbate inflationary pressures and add fuel to the bond market&#8217;s recent turmoil.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Department Breach Highlights New Risks</h3>
Compounding the challenges in December, the U.S. Treasury Department confirmed it was the target of a Chinese state-sponsored cyberattack. 
Hackers compromised a third-party vendor, BeyondTrust, and gained access to unclassified documents, according to a <a href="https://legacy.www.documentcloud.org/documents/25472740-letter-to-chairman-brown-and-ranking-member-scott/">letter</a> sent to lawmakers.
The major breach allowed hackers to override security protocols and access Treasury workstations via a stolen key. 
The Treasury Department said it became aware of the attack on Dec. 8 and is working with the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) to assess the damage.
Read Next: 
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Photo: Shutterstock

Investors Dump Long-Dated Treasury ETF At Record Pace Ahead Of Trump's White House Return

Risk sentiment returned to Wall Street on Friday, revitalized by softer-than-expected November inflation data leading to a strong market rebound following the selloff triggered by the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief">Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent meeting.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditure price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, falling short of the 2.5% increase forecasted. The core PCE, a key gauge closely watched by the Fed, also missed expectations, rising 2.8% compared to the anticipated 2.9%.
By midday Friday, all major indices were in rally mode, with broad-based gains across sectors. In the S&amp;P 500, 480 companies traded higher, and every sector advanced as investors welcomed the reprieve in inflationary pressures.
The real estate sector led the charge, rebounding sharply after being hit hardest in the aftermath of the Fed meeting. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 also posted robust gains, powered by a strong recovery in regional banks.
The travel industry soared, driven by upbeat earnings and optimistic guidance from Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>), which fueled enthusiasm across the sector. The cruise line rose by 6%, eyeing the highest close since October 2021. 
In the bond market, yields dropped by approximately 5 basis points across the curve, boosting Treasury prices. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained nearly 1%, recovering some ground after a 3% slide over the previous two sessions. The dollar softened, declining 0.6%, while gold gained over 1%. 
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) attracted dip buyers after plunging to $92,118. Although the cryptocurrency pared its daily losses, it remains on track for its worst weekly performance in four months.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,853.53</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,934.51</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,246.04</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,339.90</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:30 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent121924&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 1.1% to $592.31.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 1.2% to $429.61.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) edged 1.4% higher to $521.53.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) soared 1.2% to $222.59.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) outperformed, up by 2.3%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) lagged, up 0.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<ul>
<li>Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) plummeted 17%, marking its worst single-day drop since April 2002. after disappointing weight-loss trial data for<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/12/42623343/exclusive-weight-loss-market-experts-scoop-up-novo-nordisk-stock-after-worst-drop-since-2002-following-drug-trial-miss"> its obesity drug, CagriSema.</a></li>
<li>Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>) rallied over 8% as analysts at OTR Research raised the stock rating from Negative to Mixed.</li>
<li>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) also rallied over 6% in reaction to Carnival Cruise&#8217;s upbeat results. Other travel-related companies seeing strong gains Friday included Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABNB#NASDAQ">ABNB</a>), up 3.9%, Hyatt Hotels Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/H#NYSE">H</a>), up 3.4%, and Royal Caribbean Cruise Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>), up 3.6%.</li>
<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) fell 1.2% in reaction to its latest quarterly results and FedEx Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) inched 0.6% higher. </li>
</ul>
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Wall Street Rallies On Soft Inflation Data, Bonds Rebound, Travel Stocks Surge: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Markets saw a brief reprieve Friday as the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations, tempering concerns of mounting volatility after this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief">week's hawkish policy pivot.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, missing the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, the gauge slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.2% in October and below projections for steady growth.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.8% annually, slightly under the 2.9% estimate. The monthly core reading also decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3%, undershooting the 0.2% forecast.
Even with Friday's softer inflation print, traders seemed hesitant to enter a buy-everything mode after the sharp volatility seen earlier this week. 
The slightly tempered reaction suggests a degree of caution remains entrenched among investors as they assess the Fed's hawkish tone.
New York Fed President John Williams, interviewed by CNBC, reiterated that &#8220;monetary policy continues to be restrictive.&#8221; 
Williams described the recent inflation data as &#8220;encouraging news,&#8221; highlighting further disinflation progress. Yet, he indicated that &#8220;we&#8217;re still not to our 2% goal&#8221; and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to achieving that target.
&#8220;I think the economy is a good place and most importantly for me, monetary policy is well positioned,&#8221; he added. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Adds Some Gains, Yet &#8220;Don&#8217;t Fight The Fed&#8221; Remains The Mantra</h1>
U.S. equity markets saw modest gains following November&#8217;s softer-than-expected inflation data, as investor caution lingered after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift earlier this week.
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500: The broader market index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — edged up from 5,800 to 5,840 by 9:50 a.m. in New York, down by 0.4% for the day.</li>
<li>Dow Jones: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) gained 0.4% after the release.</li>
<li>Nasdaq 100: Tech stocks fared better, with the Nasdaq QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) adding 0.6% and recovering from steeper pre-market declines.</li>
<li>Real estate was the strongest-performing sector, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) rising by 1.1%. </li>
<li>Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks showed the largest rebound, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) up by 0.1%. </li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) witnessed a 0.8% rally. </li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Yields Ease, Dollar Falls And Gold Rebounds</h1>
Bond markets saw some relief as Treasury yields fell following several days of sharp increases. 
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped five basis points to 4.70%, lifting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) by 0.8%. This marks a partial recovery after the ETF plunged more than 3% over the previous two sessions.
Yields on shorter-dated two-year Treasury notes fell by seven basis points.
The U.S. dollar index — as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — weakened by 0.3%.
Gold prices rose, as the precious metal benefited from lower Treasury yields and the declining dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) increased by 0.7%.
In the cryptocurrency market, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) trimmed premarket losses to 0.9%, as the largest cryptocurrency surged back above $95,000 levels. 
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Photo: Shutterstock

IBIT

Market Volatility Halts On Soft Inflation Data, Yet Traders Remain Wary Of Fighting The Fed: 10 ETFs Moving Friday

The day after a volatile Federal Reserve meeting, Wall Street grappled with the stark reality of Fed Chair <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/jerome-powell">Jerome Powell</a>&#8216;s cautious tone on cutting interest rates in 2024. The message left investors weighing the impact of higher-for-longer interest rates amid<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42585715/us-gdp-upwardly-revised-to-31-in-q3-jobless-claims-drop-more-than-expected-treasury-yields-hit-7-month-highs"> a still-resilient economy.</a>
Despite the hawkish undertones, stocks managed to stabilize, with major indices posting modest gains as dip-buyers emerged.
The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%, recovering from a steep 3% selloff on Wednesday—its worst one-day drop since September 2022. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, attempting to break a staggering 10-day losing streak, its longest since 1974, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 edged 0.3% higher. 
While equities regained some ground, market conviction remains tepid as investors brace for Friday's release of the November inflation report, a critical data point for the Federal Reserve&#8217;s future policy decisions. The report could either reaffirm the Fed's hawkish stance or inject hope for an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42598354/wall-street-pins-hopes-on-fridays-crucial-fed-inflation-report-yet-a-miracle-is-needed-to-shift-the-narrative">lower-than-expected data.</a>
Thursday's economic data continued to underscore the resilience of the U.S. economy. Third-quarter GDP growth was upwardly revised from 2.8% to 3.1%, amid strong consumer spending. Weekly jobless claims fell to 220,000 last week, below forecasts of 230,000, signaling a still-tight labor market.
The bond market extended its selloff, with longer-dated Treasuries taking the biggest hit. Fixed-income investors remain under pressure, exacerbated by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42594797/trump-wants-to-get-rid-of-the-debt-ceiling-30-year-treasury-bonds-fall-to-2024-lows-stocks-cut-gains">recent comments from Donald Trump,</a> who floated the idea of eliminating the U.S. debt ceiling entirely—a development that could upend Treasury market dynamics.
In currency markets, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.2%, hitting its highest level since November 2022, supported by robust economic data.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remained flat at $100,000, following Wednesday&#8217;s 5.6% plunge.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,903.81</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,511.46</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,278.46</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,228.69</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:10 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent121924&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.5% to $589.79.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.5% to $426.40.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) edged 0.3% up to $517.89.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) stalled at $220.70. </li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, up by 1%; the&nbsp;Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) lagged, down 0.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) plummeted over 16% after a weaker-than-expected guidance for fiscal 2025, eyeing the worst 1-day drop since March 2020. </li>
<li>Accenture plc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACN#NYSE">ACN</a>) rallied over 6% in reaction to stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings.</li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Darden Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DRI#NYSE">DRI</a>) up 15%, Cintas Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CTAS#NASDAQ">CTAS</a>) down 10%, Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAYX#NASDAQ">PAYX</a>), up 2.5%, ConAgra Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAG#NYSE">CAG</a>), down 2%, FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDS#NYSE">FDS</a>) up 3.3%, CarMax Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KMX#NYSE">KMX</a>), up 4.3%, and Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LW#NYSE">LW</a>), down 23%. </li>
<li>Major companies slated to report their earnings after the close include FedEx Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FDX#NYSE">FDX</a>) and Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>). </li>
</ul>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/12/42598016/whats-going-on-with-applied-materials-amat-stock">What&#8217;s Going On With Applied Materials (AMAT) Stock?</a></li>
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Image by Shutterstock

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US Stocks Edge Up, Micron Suffers Worst Day Since March 2020, Bond Yields Surge: What's Driving Thursday's  Markets?

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Bond vigilantes refer to bond traders shorting bonds to protest monetary and/or fiscal policy.

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