オプションチェーンは、Vext Scienceの株式オプションの主要データを様々な行使価格と満期日で表示します。トレーダーはこの情報を使用して、潜在的な取引を分析し、Vext Scienceの市場センチメントを評価します。.

Vext Science (OTC:VEXTF) 株価情報, オプションチェーン

Vext Science Inc provides management, advisory, cultivation, and dispensary services to entities in the medical cannabis field. The company's expertise spans from cultivation through to retail operations. Its revenue sources include management fees, professional services, product sales, equipment leasing and property leasing. The Company's operations consist of a single operating segment engaged in the cultivation, manufacturing, distribution and sale of cannabis within the United States.

Analyst Color

Cannabis

News

Penny Stocks

Small Cap

Management

Markets

Analyst Ratings

Trading Ideas

AAWH

CNTMF

CRLBF

GTBIF

JUSHI HLDGS INC CL B by Jushi Holdings Inc.

JUSHF

VEXTF

CURA

大麻関連の企業の債務基準日にはいくつかの企業が迫っており、これによってそれらの企業の財務戦略と総合的な安定性に深刻な影響がもたらされる可能性がある。月曜日、ボーコン・セキュリティーズのアナリストであるMBAのDoug Cooper氏、CFA、CMT、MBAのRussell Stanley氏、Donangelo Volpe氏の報告が、投資家にとっての潜在的なリスクとその意味について詳しく説明している。

大麻関連企業の債務基準日が迫る　市場への影響は

Vext Science Inc

<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Portfolio Armor's Top Ten Names</h3>
Portfolio Armor's top ten names have, on average, outperformed the market significantly since December of 2022. Since then, we have full,&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.com/performance-top-names" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">6-month performance data</a>&nbsp;on 74 weekly top names cohorts. On average, our top names have returned 18.57% over the next 6 months, versus 12.72% for the&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tesla Wasn't A Top Name For Most Of This Year</h3>
Since recent price performance is one of the factors Portfolio Armor's security selection algorithm uses,&nbsp;Tesla, Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) didn't appear as a top name for most of this year, but we've had some success trading it earlier this year using other signals:
<ol>
<li>Call spread on&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(<a href="https://substack.com/discover/stocks/TSLA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TSLA 9.19%↑</a>). Entered at a net debit of $1.63 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-evs/comment/76235063" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">4/8/2024</a>; exited at net credit of $4.74 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-evs/comment/76235063" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">11/8/2024</a>.&nbsp;Profit: 191%.</li>
<li>Call spread on&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(<a href="https://substack.com/discover/stocks/TSLA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TSLA -0.61%↓</a>). Entered at a net credit of $1.50 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-being-tactical-about" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">7/11/2024</a>; options expired worthless on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-being-tactical-about/comment/62626094" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">7/19/2024</a>.&nbsp;Profit: 150%.</li>
<li>Call spread on&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(<a href="https://substack.com/discover/stocks/TSLA" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">TSLA 8.44%↑</a>). Entered at a net debit of $0.83 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-time-to-bet-on-boeing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">10/14/2024</a>; exited at a net credit of $2.96 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-time-to-bet-on-boeing/comment/73926543" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">10/24/2024</a>.&nbsp;Profit: 196%.</li>
</ol>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">One Of Our Post-Election Trump Trades</h3>
Tesla was one of four post-election Trump trades included in this post earlier this month. 
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized"><a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-euphoria"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="925" height="806" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104137/Euphoria.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3651" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104137/Euphoria.jpg 925w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104137/Euphoria-300x261.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104137/Euphoria-768x669.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px" /></a></figure>
All four names in that post had two things in common: they had been a Portfolio Armor top ten name the night before, and they stood to benefit from Trump's reelection.
For example, one of the four was&nbsp;Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>) which should benefit from loser crypto regulation under Trump. We exited half of that trade on Monday.
<ol>
<li>Calls on&nbsp;Robinhood Markets&nbsp;(<a href="https://admin.substack.com/discover/stocks/HOOD" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">HOOD -0.95%↓</a>). Bought for $1.70 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-euphoria" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">11/12/2024</a>; sold (half) for $6 on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/p/trade-alert-euphoria/comment/78815933" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">11/25/2024</a>.&nbsp;Profit: 253%.</li>
</ol>
The logic behind Tesla being a Trump trade was pretty simple: Tesla (and SpaceX) have been targets of lawfare by the Biden Administration, and under Trump, all that should go away. Elon Musk has gone from a Trump supporter to practically part of the Trump family. President Trump's niece Kai calls him "Uncle Elon"; when President Trump went to the UFC this month with his two oldest sons as part of his entourage, it was Elon Musk who sat next to him at cage side.
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="583" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104349/Trump-and-Elon-1024x583.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3652" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104349/Trump-and-Elon-1024x583.jpg 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104349/Trump-and-Elon-300x171.jpg 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104349/Trump-and-Elon-768x437.jpg 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104349/Trump-and-Elon.jpg 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Our Number One Name Now</h3>
As of Monday's close, Tesla was Portfolio Armor's #1 name again, so we're going to place another bullish options bet on it today. In addition to Tesla, we're going to place bullish bets on three other stocks in our current top ten:
<ul>
<li>A picks &amp; shovels play on AI.</li>
<li>An insurance company powered by AI.</li>
<li>A consumer finance company that should benefit from lower rates.</li>
</ul>
In each case, we'll be using call spreads expiring 4-to-6 months out, and we'll be aiming for price targets slightly lower than those suggested by the current at-the-market straddle (i.e. the current range expected by the options market).
We'll be aiming for gains of 200% to 400% if we're right, and if we're wrong, our max loss on each trade will be 100%.
If you&#8217;d like a heads up when we place those trades, feel free to subscribe to our trading Substack/occasional email list below.&nbsp;
And as a reminder, if you are concerned about downside risk, you can download our iPhone hedging app by clicking on the QR code below or aiming your iPhone camera at it.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://contributor.benzinga.com/?attachment_id=3653"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="200" height="197" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104503/QR-Code-7.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3653" /></a></figure>
If you&#8217;d like to stay in touch
You can scan for optimal hedges for individual securities, find our current top ten names, and&nbsp;create hedged portfolios&nbsp;on&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.com/">our website</a>.&nbsp;You can also follow Portfolio Armor on X&nbsp;<a href="https://twitter.com/portfolioarmor">here</a>, or become a free subscriber to our trading Substack using the link below (we&#8217;re using that for our occasional emails now).
<figure class="wp-block-image aligncenter size-full"><a href="https://portfolioarmor.substack.com/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="602" height="418" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104648/Widget-7.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-3654" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104648/Widget-7.jpg 602w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26104648/Widget-7-300x208.jpg 300w" sizes="(max-width: 602px) 100vw, 602px" /></a></figure>

General

HOOD

TSLA

Our Number One Name: Tesla

Key Takeaways:
<ul>
<li>Starbucks is considering bringing in partners to its China operation, as same-store sales in its second-largest market plunge during a bloody local coffee price war</li>
<li>The coffee giant has faced multiple challenges in China, from severe restrictions during the pandemic to growing consumer caution and fierce competition.</li>
</ul>
By Xiao Lin
In rocky waters, you often need more than one paddle to steady your boat. That seems to be the case for&nbsp;Starbucks Corp.&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sbux#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>), as the world&rsquo;s largest coffee chain explores potential partnerships in China, its second largest market after only the U.S.
In a statement to the media, the Seattle-based firm said it is working to find the best path back to growth in China, which includes exploring strategic partnerships &mdash; moves aimed at navigating increasing challenges in a country that was once its fastest growing market. Such partnerships, often with local companies, were initially the norm for most restaurant operators when they started to enter the unfamiliar Chinese market in the 1990s.
&ldquo;We are fully committed to our business and partners, and to growing in China,&rdquo; Starbucks said in a statement to numerous media, after Bloomberg reported last Thursday the company had informally gauged interest from prospective investors, including local private equity firms. &ldquo;We are working to find the best path to growth, which includes exploring strategic partnerships.&rdquo;
In addition to global private equity, Starbucks might also consider a sale of part of its China operation to Chinese conglomerates or other local companies with experience in the industry, the Bloomberg report said.
Starbucks&rsquo; shares edged up slightly after its announcement last Thursday. The stock is roughly flat over the past 12 months, and still trades at an elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31 &ndash; ahead of a 25 for&nbsp;McDonald&rsquo;s&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/mcd#NYSE">MCD</a>) and 21 for&nbsp;Yum China&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/yumc#NYSE">YUMC</a>), operator of KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants in China.
When Starbucks opened its first store in Beijing in 1999, it found itself not only facing a more regulated environment than it was used to, but also the equally big challenge of selling to a tea-drinking culture where Nestl&eacute; instant coffee defined most people&rsquo;s understanding of its signature product. It formed a series of joint ventures with local partners to better find its way in the market, but later bought all of them out.
Fast forward to the present, where, with over 7,500 stores, the company is now grappling with more frugal consumers and intense competition from local rivals, prompting it to consider a return to partnerships to weather difficult times. Such partners not only offer more resources, but can also help spread the risk of owning such a large operation worth billions of dollars.
If Starbucks&rsquo; China U-turn sounds familiar, it&rsquo;s because it&rsquo;s not the first major foreign chain to change tack midway through its China story. In 2017, after nearly three decades in the country, McDonald&rsquo;s (MCD.N) sold a majority 52% stake in its China and Hong Kong operations to a consortium led by state-owned conglomerate Citic and American investment firm&nbsp;Carlyle&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/cg#NYSE">CG</a>), after sales started declining and a food scandal dragged down its global sales.
<h3>Coffee Greenfield</h3>
When Starbucks opened its first store in Beijing&rsquo;s Guomao area 25 years ago, it did so through a joint venture with Beijing Mei Da Coffee Co. out of necessity, since wholly owned foreign restaurants weren&rsquo;t allowed at that time. The store offered cappuccinos for about 19 yuan, or $2.60, which was about 5% of the monthly average per capita income at that time. It later established two more joint ventures: one with Maxim&rsquo;s to run stores in Hong Kong and South China&rsquo;s Guangdong province, and another with Taiwan&rsquo;s Uni-President to run stores in Shanghai and nearby regions.
In late 2004, China started allowing foreign restaurant operators to wholly own their local businesses as part of its commitments after joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. Starbucks started acquiring stakes from its local partners, and by 2017 it obtained full control of its entire China operation.
Starbucks had nearly 3,000 stores across China by the end of that year and was opening a new store every 15 hours to serve an increasingly affluent and status-conscious middle class. Its revenue in the China and Asia Pacific region increased by 10% in 2017, following 23% growth the previous year.
Things went well for the next two years, with Starbucks&rsquo; net revenue in China increasing by 38% in 2018 and 19% in 2019, when the country officially became its second largest market. After a difficult year in 2020 when many of its stores were forced to close at the start of the pandemic, Starbucks came roaring back in China in 2021 with 42% revenue growth as the country was able to bring its Covid outbreaks under control.
But things have gotten tough over the last two years, both in China and worldwide. The company&rsquo;s global same-store sales declined 7% in its latest quarter through September, dragged down by a 14% decline in its China operation.
China contributed about 9% of Starbucks&rsquo; total revenues of $36.2 billion in the 12 months through September. In the company&rsquo;s latest earnings call, newly installed CEO Brian R. Niccol told investors he needed to spend more time in China to understand the challenges.
<h4>Struggling Sector</h4>
Starbucks and the catering sector certainly aren&rsquo;t the only ones in China facing difficulty, as a stream of regulatory crackdowns on various sectors over the last few years and a slowing economy that&rsquo;s hurting consumer sentiment take their toll on businesses across the board.
But the food and beverage industry has taken one of the harder hits, following an initial boom in dining out after China reopened in early 2023. More than 1 million restaurants reportedly closed in the first six months of 2024, according to media reports, citing business registry searches.
The coffee sector is taking a harder hit than many of its catering peers as the aggressive&nbsp;Luckin&nbsp;(OTC: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lkncy#OTC">LKNCY</a>) and&nbsp;Cotti Coffee&nbsp;engage in a price war by selling much of their premium coffee for just 9.9 yuan, or about $1.40, per cup. Others joining in the coffee war include Yum China with its KCOFFEE sold at its main KFC chain and in adjacent stores. Even e-commerce is getting involved with premium instant coffees like Saturnbird, which are primarily sold on platforms like Alibaba&rsquo;s Taobao at even lower prices.
While the average monthly income in China is now more than 50 times higher than in 1999, a cup of Starbucks cappuccino priced at about 30 yuan can still seem expensive to consumers when they can buy Luckin or Cotti for just a third of the cost. That reality is becoming increasingly clear as consumers become more frugal in the current economic climate.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

LKNCY

SBUX

YUMC

Starbucks Looks For New Friends In Choppy China Coffee Waters

<h4>Key Takeaways:</h4>
<ul>
<li>ATRenew&rsquo;s revenue rose 24.4% in the third quarter, and it predicted similar growth in the fourth quarter following strong results from its &lsquo;Double 11&rsquo; promotions with JD.com</li>
<li>The company is getting a boost from the growing popularity of trade-in promotions, which China is encouraging to encourage recycling and boost consumption</li>
</ul>
By Doug Young
Trading in second-hand goods was traditionally a sign of thrift, practiced by people on tight budgets. But in China&rsquo;s growing climate of consumer caution, such buying is becoming a new sort of chic, especially trade-ins that allow people to exchange their used goods for credit towards other purchases.
Such buying is becoming an increasingly important growth engine for recycling specialist&nbsp;ATRenew Inc.&nbsp;(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/rere#NYSE">RERE</a>), whose&nbsp;<a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/atrenew-inc-reports-unaudited-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-302311061.html">latest quarterly report</a>&nbsp;released Wednesday continued to show strong double-digit revenue growth, even as many other consumer segments report sharp slowdowns.
And in a world where consumer buying increasingly takes place online, ATRenew is also discovering the importance of traditional brick-and-mortar stores, especially for second-hand goods where people may want to more closely inspect what they&rsquo;re buying. As a result, the company announced plans to speed up its opening of such stores, going against a tide that more often sees merchants shutter their brick-and-mortar shops and go virtual.
Such moves are mostly refinements of ATRenew&rsquo;s business model, as it gains scale and expertise that it&rsquo;s using to move beyond its original electronics focus to other areas like used luxury goods, gold and vintage liquors. As that happens and it hones its focus to its most profitable businesses, the company also notched a significant milestone by reporting its first-ever quarterly operating profit &ndash; one of its last major profitability metrics to turn positive.
More investors are taking note as the company&rsquo;s story gains visibility, reflected by ATRenew&rsquo;s current shareholders that include the likes of Tiger Global, Morgan Stanley and UBS, which all hold 1% or more of its stock. More investors piled in after the report&rsquo;s release, sparking a nearly 14% rally for ATRenew&rsquo;s shares the day the results came out. Year to date the stock is up 46%, far outpacing an 18% gain for the broader iShares MSCI China ETF.
The growing popularity of trade-ins has become a major new theme for ATRenew, driven by recent government programs providing subsidies to people who exchange their old goods for new purchases. Such subsidies so far apply to big-ticket items like household appliances and are part of Beijing&rsquo;s efforts to stimulate the economy through greater consumption.
The government has yet to offer such trade-in subsidies for smartphones that are ATRenew&rsquo;s core business, though many suspect such a move could come as Beijing continues to launch more stimulus programs. The growing popularity of trade-ins helps ATRenew by boosting its supply of products, a critical factor behind its ability to keep growing.
&ldquo;We believe, firstly, trade-ins are becoming a trendy option among consumers, thus outpacing and driving the growth of the industry,&rdquo; ATRenew Chairman Kerry Chen said on the company&rsquo;s earnings call. &ldquo;We believe that the adoption of trade-ins is still in its early stages. Alongside platforms and brands, we need to continue educating users to help more consumers experience this cost-effective purchasing approach.&rdquo;
<h3>Friend In JD.com</h3>
The growing popularity of trade-ins was most evident in ATRenew&rsquo;s partnership with e-commerce giant&nbsp;JD.com&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/jd#NASDAQ">JD</a>), which is also one of the company&rsquo;s major stakeholders. In May, ATRenew and JD.com announced a new multiyear partnership aimed at further integrating their resources, as JD steps up its own efforts to encourage more recycling in sync with government priorities.
Following that step, ATRenew said the value of goods collected via JD.com through regular recycling and trade-in services jumped by more than 40% year-over-year in the third quarter. Within that figure, the value of goods collected through trade-in services doubled.
The momentum continued into the current quarter, when the total value of products ATRenew recycled through JD.com jumped by 77% year-on-year during the recent &ldquo;Double 11&rdquo; online shopping festival that ran this year from Oct. 14 to Nov. 11. The company said the value of products it collected from trade-ins through the JD.com partnership during the festival soared 246% during the period, which will be reflected in its fourth-quarter results.
Alongside the JD.com partnership, ATRenew&rsquo;s other key alliance is with&nbsp;Apple&nbsp;for iPhone recycling that is its biggest product line. ATRenew said the Apple partnership achieved &ldquo;healthy growth&rdquo; and improving gross margins in the latest quarter. It didn&rsquo;t give specific figures but the business was expected to generate 1 billion yuan in revenue in 2024.
ATRenew also unveiled a new partnership with French cosmetics giant&nbsp;L&rsquo;Oreal&nbsp;that encourages consumers to trade in empty cosmetics containers for physical L&rsquo;Oreal-branded gifts.
The company also disclosed that it will step up expansion of its network of AHS recycling stores, which are becoming increasingly important in raising its brand awareness as it expands beyond electronics into other categories. Such stores totaled 1,637 at the end of September.
&ldquo;We will continue to enhance our AHS stores&rsquo; service capabilities and user experience to reinforce the top-of-mind brand awareness of AHS Recycle,&rdquo; said Chen. &ldquo;As a result, we anticipate accelerating our store opening in the next two to three years.&rdquo;
ATRenew&rsquo;s transaction value for its &ldquo;multicategory&rdquo; business, which it launched last year, totaled 950 million yuan in the third quarter, up from 900 million yuan in the second quarter and a 270% increase year-on-year. It disclosed that gold has become its biggest &ldquo;multicategory&rdquo; product, accounting for 77% of the business, followed by luxury goods at 18%. But it also noted that those two categories are roughly equal in terms of revenue contribution to the company.
All of those initiatives helped ATRenew boost its revenue to 4.05 billion yuan in the third quarter from 3.26 billion yuan a year earlier. The company forecast similar growth in the fourth quarter, predicting the figure would rise to between 4.74 billion yuan and 4.84 billion yuan, representing about 23% growth at the midpoint.
Within the latest revenue figure, ATRenew noted its sales directly to consumers through its AHS website and AHS stores quadrupled year-on-year during the quarter, reflecting one of its efforts to boost its offerings of value-for-money used products for consumers directly.
Those and other efforts helped the company boost its gross margin to 20.0% in the latest quarter from 19.8% a year earlier. That paved the way for the company to report its first positive income from operations of 24.9 million yuan. Its net income was also positive at 17.9 million yuan, representing only its second time reporting a positive figure for that metric.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

RERE

Trade-in 'Chic' Helps Boost ATRenew To First Operating Profit

Last week, Wall Street&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/morgan-stanley-2025-stock-market-outlook" rel="">began circulating</a>&nbsp;their outlooks for the stock market in 2025.
For many folks, the key takeaway from these reports is the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/goldman-sachs-ubs-bmo-2025-stock-market-outlook" rel="">year-end price target</a>.
As TKer subscribers know, I&rsquo;m&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/piper-sandler-drops-sp-target-makes-point" rel="">not crazy about taking these price targets too seriously</a>. Sure, I keep an eye out for these targets (see&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2024-stock-market-outlook" rel="">here</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2023-stock-market-outlook" rel="">here</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2022-stock-market-outlook" rel="">here</a>). But I&rsquo;m far more interested in the rigorous research behind these predictions. That&rsquo;s because much of the underlying data and analysis that go into these calls is high quality and very insightful.
While it&rsquo;s been the case their year-end price targets&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/economic-rules-and-statistical-regularities?open=false#%C2%A7cfra-raises-its-target-for-the-s-and-p" rel="">have been way off</a>&nbsp;on the conservative side, strategists have actually nailed one important prediction:&nbsp;2024 earnings.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5a5b910-17fb-43c4-9d2d-95835cc0b8be_1758x1436.png" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5a5b910-17fb-43c4-9d2d-95835cc0b8be_1758x1436.png" style="height:510px; width:624px" /></a>
Historically, analysts&rsquo; annual S&amp;P 500 EPS comes in significantly lower than initially forecast. Not in 2024. (Source: UBS)
At the beginning of the year,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/139075598/the-s-and-p-price-targets" rel="">strategists&rsquo; estimates for 2024 S&amp;P 500 earnings per share (EPS)</a>&nbsp;ranged from $225 to $250.
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_112224.pdf" rel="">FactSet</a>, after three quarters worth of reported earnings, 2024 EPS is on track to be $240. That is to say, the consensus midpoint EPS estimate has been off by what amounts to a rounding error.
&ldquo;Wall Street analysts have been reasonably good at predicting forward year earnings over the last few years,&rdquo; wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.
<a href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd111692c-48dd-46e0-8cd3-59033c453c2e_2030x1166.png" rel="" target="_blank"><img alt="" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd111692c-48dd-46e0-8cd3-59033c453c2e_2030x1166.png" style="height:358px; width:624px" /></a>
S&amp;P 500 EPS is expected to have risen to $240 in 2024. (Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_112224.pdf" rel="">FactSet</a>)
How&nbsp;we&rsquo;re getting these earnings might not be&nbsp;exactly how&nbsp;the strategists may have&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2024-stock-market-outlook" rel="">laid out a year ago</a>. But they were right about major themes driving earnings growth like&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/profit-margins-expected-to-stay-high" rel="">persistently high profit margins</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/federal-reserve-rate-cut-september-2024" rel="">looser Fed monetary policy</a>.
If the earnings have been coming through, then why have strategists been so off with their price targets?
As we discussed in the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/deutsche-morgan-2024-sp500-targets-valuation" rel="">May 24 TKer</a>, assumptions about valuation multiples are where Wall Street&rsquo;s calculations often go wrong.
At the beginning of the year, forward price/earnings (P/E) multiple was 19x. Many&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2024-stock-market-outlook?open=false#%C2%A7the-s-and-p-price-targets" rel="">strategists believed</a>&nbsp;that was high and there was little room for it to go higher.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/i/144930530/this-is-where-wall-streets-year-end-price-targets-almost-always-go-wrong" rel="">Some even expected it to come down</a>.
Today, the forward P/E is about 22x. At first glance, the difference between 19x and 22x might not seem like much. But when you actually apply it to an EPS estimate, the range of S&amp;P price scenarios can be wide. For example, here&rsquo;s what the price scenarios look like assuming $275 EPS (which is what the consensus is expecting for 2025):
<ul>
<li>
19x $275 EPS =&nbsp;5,225
</li>
<li>
20x $275 EPS =&nbsp;5,500
</li>
<li>
21x $275 EPS =&nbsp;5,775
</li>
<li>
22x $275 EPS =&nbsp;6,050
</li>
</ul>
Differing assumptions about valuations are&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2024-stock-market-outlook" rel="">often why price target calculations vary</a>, and inaccurate assumptions about valuations are why those targets almost always go wrong.
<h3>The Big Picture</h3>
For long-term investors in the stock market, I don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;s a good use of energy to obsess over&nbsp;exactly&nbsp;where the stock market might be&nbsp;exactly&nbsp;one year from now &mdash; especially since no one has figured out how to do that accurately and consistently.
It is, however, much more helpful to be aware of the fundamentals driving earnings because&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/chart-earnings-drive-stock-prices" rel="">earnings are the most important long-term driver of stock prices</a>.
If the prospects for earnings growth are attractive, then it&rsquo;s probably not crazy to think stock prices will head in that direction.
Indeed, it&rsquo;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-2024-stock-market-outlook" rel="">usually the case that EPS have grown</a>, and it is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tker.co/p/peter-lynch-1994-stock-market-earnings" rel="">also the case that the S&amp;P 500 has moved higher</a>.
Similarly, strategists&rsquo; annual forecasts tend to predict the direction of earnings is up and the direction of prices is also up.
Maybe strategists rarely nail their price targets. But directionally, they tend to get things right.
A version of this post was originally published on <a href="https://www.tker.co/p/wall-street-strategists-nail-2024-earnings-estimate?publication_id=26696&amp;post_id=151777896&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=2dvdoy&amp;triedRedirect=true">Tker.co</a>.

Opinion

Wall Street Strategists Are Nailing One Of Their More Important Forecasts For 2024

<ul>
<li>Lordstown Motors went public on Nasdaq in October 2020, promising to revolutionize the EV sector with its commercial fleet-focused Lordstown Endurance. The company raised more than $675M from investors at the time of merging with SPAC DiamondPeak Holdings to go public.</li>
<li>The company aggressively promoted Endurance as an economically viable option compared to other EV trucks promised by leading automakers and even went on to claim that it would take market share from the Ford F-150, the best-selling truck in the United States.</li>
<li>After revealing pre-orders for approximately 100,000 Endurance vehicles in early 2021, Lordstown stock skyrocketed to an all-time high of over $460 in February 2021 (pre-reverse split). After being rebranded as Nu Ride, the stock now trades at $1.70.</li>
<li>Hindenburg Research, in a report dated March 12, 2021, revealed that Lordstown has been deceiving investors by omitting key information regarding pre-orders for Endurance.</li>
<li>Lordstown filed for bankruptcy in June 2023, blaming Foxconn, a business partner and investor, for failing to deliver commercial and financial commitments that led to "material and irreparable harm" to the company.</li>
<li>The SEC charged Lordstown in February 2024 for misleading investors with fictitious Endurance pre-orders and concealing Lordstown's inability to access critical components for the production of EVs. Lordstown agreed to a payment of $25.5M to settle the claim.</li>
<li>Lordstown Motors will pay up to $10M settlement due to this situation. All affected investors can <a href="https://11thestate.com/cases/lordstown-investor-settlement?ref=11thestate.com">file a claim</a> to receive the payment.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size" id="overview">Overview</h3>
Lordstown Motors Corp (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIDEQ#OTC">RIDEQ</a>), now Nu Ride (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NRDE#OTC">NRDE</a>), burst onto the scene in 2020 promising a revolutionary electric truck and raking in over $675 million from investors. The company aggressively marketed the Endurance, its first EV truck, as a competitor to established automakers, sending the stock soaring. However, this house of cards came crashing down when Hindenburg Research exposed Lordstown for misleading investors about pre-orders and production capabilities in early 2021. Since then, the stock has crashed, the company filed for bankruptcy before emerging from Chapter 11 as Nu Ride, and the SEC charged Lordstown for misleading investors. Lordstown has now agreed to settle with the SEC and defrauded investors, bringing closure to a cautionary tale of hype and deception.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1000" height="481" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170210/image-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3664" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170210/image-4.png 1000w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170210/image-4-300x144.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170210/image-4-768x369.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Q1 2021 Earnings Presentation</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size" id="introduction">Introduction</h3>
Lordstown Motors, now rebranded as Nu Ride Inc. (NRDE), was founded in 2018 by former CEO of Workhorse Group, Steve Burns. The company, from its IPO in October 2020 through its Chapter 11 filing in June 2023, aggressively marketed its vision of revolutionizing the American commercial and passenger vehicle industries with Lordstown Endurance, its flagship electric truck that promised to compete with established automakers such as Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Ford Motor Company (F) for market share. Lordstown Motors, which was valued at almost $5 billion in February 2021 before Hindenburg's report, now has a market capitalization of just $27 million after wiping billions of dollars of investor money off the table.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size" id="the-scandal">The Scandal</h3>
Lordstown Motors' deceptive actions span across three distinct categories.
First, Lordstown inflated pre-orders for Endurance, misleading investors about the revenue growth potential of the company.&nbsp;On January 11, 2021, Lordstown announced surpassing 100,000 pre-orders for Endurance.&nbsp;Commenting on this, CEO Steve Burns said:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"Receiving 100,000 pre-orders from commercial fleets for a truck like the Endurance is unprecedented in automotive history. Adding in the interest we have from federal, state, municipal and military fleets on top of that, I think you can see why we feel that we are about to revolutionize the pickup truck industry."
</blockquote>
At the proposed maximum retail price of $52,500, pre-orders for Endurance promised to bring in approximately $5 billion in revenue.&nbsp;Investors, based on this promising pipeline of orders, rushed to own a piece of the company, pushing Lordstown's market value close to $5 billion in February 2021.
On March 12, Hindenburg Research revealed that most of these pre-orders were fictitious or were placed by companies that had no financial backing to follow through with purchasing the Endurance truck.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="299" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170633/image-7-1024x299.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3667" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170633/image-7-1024x299.png 1024w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170633/image-7-300x88.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170633/image-7-768x224.png 768w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170633/image-7.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Hindenburg Research</figcaption></figure>
Lordstown Motors never accepted or requested deposits from most of the customers who were interested in purchasing its EV truck, contrary to the standard practice.&nbsp;For example, Tesla, the EV market leader in the U.S., required a deposit of $100-$150 for placing a pre-order for the Cybertruck in 2019.
Lordstown Motors' decision to claim pre-orders as confirmed sales without even securing a deposit seemed questionable even at that time, and the fears were confirmed when none of these orders were delivered in the years that passed.
The company also used inflated pre-order figures to raise funds from investors, misguiding the market about the true nature of the demand for its Endurance truck.
Second,&nbsp;Lordstown Motors misled investors with details of its production timeline, stating that the company was on track to bring the Endurance to the market well before any other EV pickup truck.&nbsp;Originally, the company claimed that commercial production would begin in September 2021 following Beta prototype testing and two pre-production runs.

<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="795" height="299" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170447/image-5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3665" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170447/image-5.png 795w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170447/image-5-300x113.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170447/image-5-768x289.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 795px) 100vw, 795px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Investor presentation (January 2021)</figcaption></figure>
In January 2021, Lordstown pledged to bring Endurance to the market before many established players and also promised a more affordable price tag, giving the false impression that Endurance would aggressively take market share from ICE pickup trucks that have been dominating both the passenger and commercial truck market in the United States.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="887" height="562" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170653/image-8.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3668" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170653/image-8.png 887w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170653/image-8-300x190.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26170653/image-8-768x487.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 887px) 100vw, 887px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Investor presentation (January 2021)</figcaption></figure>
Revealing production targets, Lordstown projected the production of approximately 2,000 trucks in 2021 alone. The below table, based on the company&#8217;s filings, highlights the rosy production targets published by the company.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>EV Production target</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>2,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>32,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>65,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>107,000</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Commenting on the progress of production during the Q1 2021 earnings call, CEO Steve Burns said:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"Our mission here at Lordstown Motors is to be the leading manufacturer for electric light duty trucks in the United States. Our first vehicle, the all-electric Endurance work truck is on track to start limited production in late September, and we expect to start deliveries later in the fourth quarter."
</blockquote>
Despite these ambitious predictions and misleading statements, Lordstown Motors ended up delivering just 6 Endurance EVs before production was halted earlier this year.
Third, Lordstown Motors failed to disclose critical information about its financial health and production challenges, leading investors to believe that the company was fulfilling its obligations to shareholders.&nbsp;A classic example is how Lordstown claimed it had access to critical vehicle parts from General Motors to design and produce the Endurance, when in reality the company did not have any such access.&nbsp;From the time of its IPO through January 2021, Lordstown claimed on several instances that it would get access to more than 200 General Motors' vehicle parts, including 100 non-customer-facing parts necessary to bring the Endurance truck to the market within the projected timeline.
The following is an excerpt from the Prospectus filed by Lordstown before its IPO in 2020.
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"The Endurance body is designed to be fully compatible with existing third-party parts, upfitting options and accessories. Depending on how our timing and demand aligns with the availability and cost of these parts, this design provides us with the option to source certain parts under an agreement we have entered into with GM. This agreement provides us with access to certain non-customer-facing GM parts, including airbags, steering columns and steering wheels, based on the manufacturing capacity of GM's suppliers. To the extent we utilize this arrangement, we expect that it will reduce the time that it will take to build out these aspects of our supply chain and bring the Endurance to market and reduce our tooling and development costs."
</blockquote>
These statements played a crucial part in luring investors to invest in Lordstown in the hopes of the company gaining a first-mover advantage in the EV commercial truck market.
After Hindenburg Research highlighted Lordstown's misleading statements on March 12, 2021, Lordstown Motors issued a statement regarding this short-seller report on March 15, 2021. In this statement, Lordstown defended its progress toward delivering Endurance trucks later that year and wrote:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"Lordstown Motors remains on track for start of production of its Lordstown Endurance all electric pickup truck in September 2021. This week, the company intends to elaborate on its progress towards start of production, including providing an update on beta vehicle production and other important business developments, on its inaugural earnings call."
</blockquote>
Despite this reassuring statement, Lordstown CEO appeared on CNBC Squawk Box on March 18 – just three days later – and claimed that the 100,000 pre-orders should never have been viewed as confirmed orders. Steve Burns, during this interview, said:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"We've always been very clear, right? These are just what they're intended to be. These are non-binding, letters of intent. They're called preorders out in the real world. I don't think anyone thought that we had actual orders, right? That's just not the nature of this business."
</blockquote>
The CEO made these comments soon after the SEC sent a letter to Lordstown inquiring about its business operations.
The company, however, appointed a special committee to investigate the claims made by Hindenburg Research.
On June 14, 2021, Lordstown published the findings of the special committee and denied some of the claims of Hindenburg Research but acknowledged that the company may have issued false, misleading statements regarding pre-orders.&nbsp;Revealing the findings of the committee, Lordstown Motors wrote:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"One entity that provided a large number of pre-orders does not appear to have the resources to complete large purchases of trucks. Other entities provided commitments that appear too vague or infirm to be appropriately included in the total number of pre-orders disclosed."
</blockquote>
Following the findings of this committee, CEO Steve Burns and CFO Julio Rodriguez resigned from their positions.
The SEC concluded its investigation earlier this year and found that Lordstown Motors has violated several guidelines of the Securities Act, including 17(a)(2) and 17(a)(3).&nbsp;Commenting on these violations, Mark Cave, Associate Director of the Division of Enforcement at SEC, said:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"In a highly competitive race to deliver the first mass-produced electric pickup truck to the U.S. market, Lordstown oversold true demand for the Endurance. "Exaggerations that misrepresent a public company's competitive advantages distort the capital markets and foil investors' ability to make informed decisions about where to put their money."
</blockquote>
Lordstown reached agreements to resolve allegations of misconduct by the SEC and two shareholder lawsuits. The company will pay $25.5 million without admitting or denying wrongdoing. The SEC will then withdraw its claim in Lordstown&#8217;s bankruptcy case. The below excerpt from the SEC's order summarizes its undertakings.
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/iSErBXeG0RbnJhkpuQDcxk8TgzdJwTY4nxyzpFnDetu4I70iyOf6Ehk1vbMVH772_BiCGhl-PBhIFz7LlNzcczqXbcYG2Yug8qftfjokjVzRzZ2Y1HtdQLJGH_LYYoZ0lLqq1yqkA4OhO4h7R4AA64nLSeYUwURe" alt="A document with text and numbers
Description automatically generated" style="width:624px"/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: SEC</figcaption></figure>
Ex-CEO Steve Burns, in an email statement to Reuters, denied any wrongdoings last March following the SEC's order and claimed that his actions were&nbsp;"falsely characterized"&nbsp;by the SEC. He went on to say:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">"I categorically reject the suggestion that my actions constituted wrongdoing."
</blockquote>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading" id="resolving-the-scandal">Resolving The Scandal</h3>
To resolve the lawsuit from investors, Lordstown has agreed to a cash settlement of up to $10 million. If you invested in Lordstown, you may be eligible to <a href="https://11thestate.com/cases/lordstown-investor-settlement">claim a portion</a> of this settlement to recover your losses.
Wrapping up, the company, now rebranded as Nu Ride, operates as a shell company to carry the Chapter 11 Cases and Plan. The production of Endurance has been halted since June 2023 and the company does not conduct any business as of today.

NRDE

RIDEQ

Broken EV Dreams: Lordstown's Bankruptcy And $10M Investor Settlement

AAA expects record-setting travel numbers for Thanksgiving 2024 with an estimated 79.9 million travelers, up 2% from the previous record set last year. Here's what to know Tuesday before hitting the road later this week <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/retail-sales/24/11/42170721/thanksgiving-dinner-gobbles-up-19-more-cash-this-year-many-holiday-hosts-already-regret-their-decision">for the holiday. </a>
What To Know: AAA attributes the staggering number of travelers to economic growth, declining inflation and strong income gains, which it sees boosting consumer spending by 4.6% compared to last Thanksgiving.&nbsp;
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/retail-sales/24/11/42170721/thanksgiving-dinner-gobbles-up-19-more-cash-this-year-many-holiday-hosts-already-regret-their-decision">Thanksgiving Dinner Gobbles Up 19% More Cash This Year, Many Holiday Hosts &#8216;Already Regret Their Decision&#8217;</a>
"We expect to see record travel numbers across the board," said Debbie Haas, vice president of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. 
"With more people taking to the roads, skies, rails and sea; travelers should expect congested roads and longer lines at transportation terminals," Haas added. 
On The Road: AAA <a href="https://newsroom.acg.aaa.com/aaa-record-number-of-travelers-expected-to-travel-for-thanksgiving/#">projects more than</a> 71 million travelers will take a road trip over Thanksgiving which would beat the previous record set in 2019 by 1.1 million travelers.&nbsp;
Drivers fueling up at Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) or Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) gas stations can expect significantly lower prices than last year with gas hovering near $3 per gallon. The national average is $3.01 per gallon, according to GasBuddy. 
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/42201885/dell-technologies-shares-drop-after-q3-revenue-misses-estimates-details">Dell Technologies Shares Drop After Q3 Revenue Misses Estimates: Details</a>
"As Americans prepare to hit the road for Thanksgiving, we're seeing the lowest national average price of gasoline since 2021, with a far better economic picture than when gas prices were last this low," GasBuddy said in its <a href="https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/2-cents-shy-of-2-99-national-average-declines-for-6th-straight-week">weekly report</a>.&nbsp;
For travelers looking to rent a car at their destination, Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HTZ#NASDAQ">HTZ</a>) says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando and Phoenix are the cities with the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.
In The Air: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) said that it is "prepared for the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record." The TSA expects to screen 18.3 million people from Tuesday, Nov. 26 to Monday, Dec. 2, representing a volume increase of approximately 6% over the 2023 Thanksgiving holiday.
"As we approach Thanksgiving, TSA is ready to accommodate record passenger volumes," said TSA Administrator David Pekoske.
&nbsp;"The 10 busiest travel days in TSA's history have all occurred in 2024, and we anticipate that trend to continue," Pekoske added.&nbsp;
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) said <a href="https://news.delta.com/numbers-thanksgiving-holiday-travel-delta">it is expecting</a> 6.5 million customers this Thanksgiving holiday travel period, up 5% from one year ago, and reminds travelers to arrive early and anticipate larger crowds at security checkpoints and in the airport terminals. 
Eyes On The Skies: Americans are preparing for what could be the busiest travel week on record, but weather conditions may not cooperate in some parts of the country.  According to an AP <a href="https://apnews.com/article/thanksgiving-holiday-travel-airports-roads-38cfcfe5f9d7b19fdc9d843827ed21f9">report</a>, an Arctic blast is taking aim at the Midwest and a nor'easter will move up the East Coast bringing cold and wet conditions that could disrupt travel over the holiday weekend. 
"The system doesn't look like a powerhouse right now," Hayden Frank, a meteorologist with the weather service in Massachusetts, said Sunday. "Basically, this is going to bring rain to the I-95 corridor so travelers should prepare for wet weather. Unless the system trends a lot colder, it looks like rain."
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/24/11/41949068/bitcoin-could-reach-1-million-by-2037-economist-says-buy-of-a-lifetime-opportunity">Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million By 2037, Economist Says: &#8216;Buy Of A Lifetime&#8217; Opportunity</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Jan Vašek from Pixabay

Travel

Movers

Thanksgiving Travel Preview: AAA Expects Record Numbers, TSA Braces For Busiest Day Ever, Arctic Weather Blast

STOCK RISES OVER 2.8% AT ITS HIGH FOR THE DAY
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="781" height="668" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26210820/Screen-Shot-2024-11-26-at-4.07.45-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-3672" style="width:624px" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26210820/Screen-Shot-2024-11-26-at-4.07.45-PM.png 781w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26210820/Screen-Shot-2024-11-26-at-4.07.45-PM-300x257.png 300w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/26210820/Screen-Shot-2024-11-26-at-4.07.45-PM-768x657.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 781px) 100vw, 781px" /></figure>
Today, at 10:21 AM on November 26th, a significant trading signal occurred for Eli Lilly &amp; Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) as it demonstrated a Power Inflow at a price of $784.63. This indicator is crucial for traders who want to know directionally where institutions and so-called "smart money" moves in the market. They see the value of utilizing order flow analytics to guide their trading decisions. The Power Inflow points to a possible uptrend in Lilly&#8217;s stock, marking a potential entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the expected upward movement. Traders with this signal closely watch for sustained momentum in Lilly&#8217;s stock price, interpreting this event as a bullish sign.
Signal description
Order flow analytics, aka transaction or market flow analysis, separate and study both the retail and institutional volume rate of orders (flow). It involves analyzing the flow of buy and sell orders, along with size, timing, and other associated characteristics and patterns, to gain insights and make more informed trading decisions. This particular indicator is interpreted by active traders as a bullish signal.&nbsp;
The Power Inflow occurs within the first two hours of the market open and generally signals the trend that helps gauge the stock&#8217;s overall direction, powered by institutional activity in the stock, for the remainder of the day.&nbsp;
By incorporating order flow analytics into their trading strategies, market participants can better interpret market conditions, identify trading opportunities, and potentially improve their trading performance. But let's not forget that while watching smart money flow can provide valuable insights, it is crucial to incorporate effective risk management strategies to protect capital and mitigate potential losses. Employing a consistent and effective risk management plan helps traders navigate the uncertainties of the market in a more controlled and calculated manner, increasing the likelihood of long-term success
If you want to stay updated on the latest options trades for LLY, <a href="https://benzinga.grsm.io/register174">Benzinga Pro</a> gives you real-time options trades alerts.&nbsp;
<a href="https://benzinga.com/apis?_gl=1&#x2A;1hlgn5i&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;MTY1NjE2NTYxMi4xNzE0NzQ4MTAy&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTcxNDc0ODEwMi4xLjEuMTcxNDc0ODQyOC4wLjAuMA..">Market News and Data </a><a href="https://benzinga.com/apis?_gl=1&#x2A;1hlgn5i&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;MTY1NjE2NTYxMi4xNzE0NzQ4MTAy&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTcxNDc0ODEwMi4xLjEuMTcxNDc0ODQyOC4wLjAuMA.." target="_blank" rel="noopener">are brought to you by Benzinga APIs</a>&nbsp;and include firms, like TradePulse.net,&nbsp;responsible for parts of the data within this article. 
&#xA9; 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
After Market Close UPDATE:
The price at the time of the Power Inflow was $784.63. The returns on the High price ($806.87) and Close price ($789.25) after the Power Inflow were respectively 2.8% and 0.5%. That is why it is important to have a trading plan that includes Profit Targets and Stop Losses that reflect your risk appetite. 
Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results

Signals

Tradepulse Power Inflow Alert: Eli Lilly & Company Climbs Over 22 Points After Alert

Former Congresswoman and current South Dakota governor, Kristi Noem, was announced as Donald Trump's pick to lead the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/11/41950826/kristi-noems-appointment-as-homeland-security-secretary-raises-questions-about-federal-cannabis-policy"> Department of Homeland Security.</a>
Here's a look at Noem's finances and wealth.
Trump's Pick: Since winning the 2024 presidential election, Trump has started announcing who he will be<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/24/11/42171604/trumps-department-of-education-secretary-pick-linda-mcmahon-owns-tko-stock-thanks-to-famous-wrestling-past"> nominating for Cabinet positions.</a>
While many of the picks await official nomination and Congressional approval, Trump has been busy assembling his team.
Noem served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2011 to 2019 and has been governor of South Dakota since 2019.
The governor was on the shortlist of candidates that were expected to be named as Trump's vice-presidential pick for the 2024 election, even being one of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/01/36749394/trump-vice-president-pick-crypto-bettors-backing-haley-ramaswamy-desantis-and-this-potenti">the betting favorites</a> at prediction market Polymarket for some time.
A controversy involving Noem's newest book saying that her 14-month-old family hunting dog was shot by the politician may have led to her falling out as a top pick for the vice president role.
Did You Know?
<ul>
<li>Congress Is Making Huge Investments. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/gov-trades/?utm_source=BZprocontent112624">Get Tips On What They Bought And Sold Ahead Of The 2024 Election With Our Easy-to-Use Tool</a></li>
</ul>
Noem's Finances: As governor of South Dakota, Noem collects an annual salary of $121,578 as reported by <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_state_government_salary">Ballotpedia</a>.
While in Congress, Noem collected a salary of $174,000 annually.
If elected to Trump's cabinet, Noem will <a href="https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/salaries-wages/salary-tables/24Tables/exec/html/EX.aspx">collect </a>an annual salary of $246,400.
A recent 2023 financial disclosure form filed in South Dakota showed that Noem has financial interest in Noem Insurance, run by her husband Byron Noem, and several small businesses.
Noem also listed cash rent from pastures as a source of income and has previously declared a family ranch in financial disclosures. The ranch was inherited when her father passed away and is co-owned with her mother and siblings.
The South Dakota governor has authored two books, which she lists as a source of income for royalties. The autobiography books are "Not My First Rodeo: Lessons from the Heartland" and "No Going Back," which were published in 2022 and 2024, respectively.
Noem's most recent disclosure from <a href="https://sdsos.gov/general-information/executive-actions/elected-officials-fis/search/Document.aspx?CabId=523E2A2A&amp;DocGuid=20230109-1607-2507-8681-b9af75c9a054">2023 </a>is easy to find and read on the South Dakota Secretary of State website. Older <a href="https://sdsos.gov/general-information/executive-actions/elected-officials-fis/search/Default.aspx">disclosures </a>don't load as images.
Estimates on Noem's wealth have varied greatly over the years based on some of the questions about her disclosures.
An estimate from <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/personal-finances/kristi-noem/net-worth?cid=N00032022">OpenSecrets </a>in 2017 listed Noem's wealth at $2.35 million. Money <a href="https://moneyinc.com/kristi-noem-net-worth/">listed </a>her wealth at $4.5 million in a 2023 article using financials from 2021.
Energy Investment: Also listed on Noem's financial disclosures is an investment in Granite Falls Energy, which she has declared income from previously.
Noem disclosed that she made between $25,006 and $70,000 in dividends from the investment from her first Congressional run in 2010 through early 2019, as <a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2023/06/30/noem-investor-in-ethanol-plant-partnered-with-carbon-pipeline-company/">reported </a>by South Dakota Searchlight. South Dakota disclosures do not require Noem to list the amount of income received, only the sources of income.
The report linked the energy company as a partner to Summit Carbon Solutions, a company that had proposed a carbon pipeline in South Dakota.
South Dakota Searchlight said the financial interest in the proposed pipeline raised questions about Noem's lack of support for anti-pipeline legislation in the state.
A spokesperson for Noem told the media outlet that the governor "invested in Granite Falls many years ago and has always appropriately disclosed her finances." The pipeline has struggled to gain voter support in South Dakota.
If elected into Trump's cabinet, Noem's past interest in and investments in energy pipelines could be worth monitoring by investors.
Several pipeline ETFs like the Alerian MLP ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMLP#NYSE">AMLP</a>) and Global X MLP &amp; Energy Infrastructure ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MLPX#NYSE">MLPX</a>) could benefit from having Noem, a pro-pipeline investor, in the Trump White House administration.
Noem's son-in-law Kyle Peters is a <a href="https://sosenterprise.sd.gov/BusinessServices/Lobbyist/LobbyistRegistrationDetail.aspx?CN=104015223000203061037142112123066229130120120058">registered </a>lobbyist for Gevo Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEVO#NASDAQ">GEVO</a>), a biofuels company, that could benefit from pipelines and energy investments in South Dakota.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/politics/24/11/42077496/donald-trumps-personnel-picks-new-poll-finds-elon-musk-with-highest-approval-by-voters-matt-gaetz-with-highest-disapproval">Donald Trump&#8217;s Personnel Picks: New Poll Finds Elon Musk With Highest Approval By Voters, Matt Gaetz With Highest Disapproval</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Maxim Elramsisy via Shutterstock

Entertainment

Government

Education

Politics

AMLP

GEVO

MLPX

Trump Department Of Homeland Security Pick Kristi Noem Owns Ranch, Invests In Energy, Gets Book Royalties

By <a href="https://roboforex.com/beginners/analytics/forex-forecast/?utm_source=benzinga.com&amp;utm_medium=pr&amp;utm_campaign=rf_en_external_article_26112024&amp;utm_content=analysis&amp;utm_term=forecast" style="color:#0563c1; text-decoration:underline">RoboForex Analytical Department</a>
The NZD/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, touching a low of 0.5841 and reaching a yearly trough of 0.5796. The primary pressure comes from a robust US dollar, bolstered by anticipations of a more stringent tariff regime under US President-elect Donald Trump. Speculations about Trump imposing an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods have particularly impacted the Kiwi, given China&rsquo;s role as New Zealand&rsquo;s largest trading partner.
The market pre-emptively reacts to potential US policy shifts, recalling Trump&rsquo;s previous term characterised by aggressive trade policies. This has cast a long shadow over the NZD, influencing investor sentiment.
The upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on Wednesday is crucial, with expectations leaning towards a 50-basis-point rate cut to 4.25% per annum. This expected move aligns with the RBNZ&rsquo;s dovish stance from October and could sustain the downward pressure on the NZD.
<h3>Technical Analysis Of&nbsp;NZD/USD</h3>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u117641/nzdusdh4_15.png"><img alt="" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u117641/nzdusdh4_15.png" style="height:280px; width:624px" /></a>
H4 chart: the NZD/USD has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5797, with a subsequent recovery phase targeting 0.5922 underway. After reaching this level, a potential pullback to 0.5860 could establish a consolidation zone around this marker. A break below this range might extend the decline to 0.5777, while an upward breach could pave the way to 0.5977.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u117641/nzdusdh1_15.png"><img alt="" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u117641/nzdusdh1_15.png" style="height:280px; width:624px" /></a>
H1 chart: the pair is forming an initial growth wave towards 0.5860. Following this target, a retraction to 0.5828 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator supports this currency forecast, indicating a possible downturn from elevated levels and enhancing the likelihood of continuing the downward trajectory.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author&#39;s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

NZD/USD Hits Yearly Low Amid US Dollar Strength

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman maintains Best Buy Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBY#NYSE">BBY</a>) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $115 to $110.

Price Target

Telsey Advisory Group Maintains Outperform on Best Buy Co, Lowers Price Target to $110

Nuveen California Dividend Advantage Municipal Fund 2

Trading Halt: Halt status updated at 6:30:00 PM ET: Quotation Resumption: News and Resumption Times

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2024-11-26_08h02_04.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buying Opportunity Ahead</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-buying-opportunities-ahead-bitcoin-drop-bets-eww-mc-11262024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>President-elect Trump is threatening to impose steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada using an executive order on his first day in office.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Mexico's president is responding by claiming that migrant caravans are no longer arriving at the U.S. border.&nbsp; She is also offering cooperation to stem the flow of drugs to the U.S.&nbsp;</li>
<li>If negotiations with Mexico do not go well, stocks in Mexico will be decimated.&nbsp; That will likely be an opportunity for long-term investors to back up the truck and buy stocks in Mexico.&nbsp; The reason is that there are simply not enough people in the U.S. to support economic growth and on-shoring of all of the manufacturing from China.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows Mexico ETF EWW is oversold.&nbsp; However, EWW can become more oversold.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Mexico ETF EWW can easily fall to the top support zone shown on the chart.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the back up the truck buying opportunity will tentatively occur if Mexico ETF EWW falls to the lower support zone shown on the chart.&nbsp; However, this is all data dependent.&nbsp; Investors should carefully follow the data points.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Investors need to look ahead and be prepared if the opportunity in Mexico arises.&nbsp; Mexico has been continuously covered in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Emerging for 17 years.&nbsp; As full disclosure, if there is a back up the truck buying opportunity, a signal will be made in The Arora Report&#8217;s Real Time Feed of ZYX Emerging.&nbsp; In a buy signal, the support zone is only one of many factors.&nbsp; The algorithms used by The Arora Report are highly complex and combine the best elements of macro analysis, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and quantitative analysis with an overlay of change.&nbsp; Identifying change early and being prepared to capture opportunity leads to big gains.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Trump is also threatening Canada with steep tariffs.  If Canadian stocks are decimated, there will be an opportunity to buy Canada ETF iShares MSCI Canada ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>).  Again, investors need to be prepared ahead of time to capture the opportunity if it arises.  As full disclosure, a signal to buy Canadian stocks will be in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation.  </li>
<li>Yesterday evening, when the news broke of Trump's tariff plan, stock futures were first quickly sold.&nbsp; Then, the momo crowd stepped in and has been aggressively buying the dip.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>There are important developments in bitcoin.&nbsp; Please scroll down to the bitcoin section below.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and&nbsp;Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
At a time when almost everyone is bullish on Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) and cryptos, money flows are at a record to short bitcoin.  As an example, money flows in ProShares UltraShort Bitcoin ETF (ARCA: SBIT) were at a record $18.8M yesterday.  Of course, money flows in short bets on bitcoin pale in comparison to money flows in long bets.  
Bitcoin whales took profits in the zone of $93,000 &#8211; $98,000, taking advantage of super excited retail investors.&nbsp; At a time when retail investors were converting their dollars into bitcoins, bitcoin whales were converting their bitcoins into dollars. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.&nbsp; The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.&nbsp; The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.&nbsp;
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

$BTC

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

Back Up The Truck Buying Opportunities May Be Ahead, Record Bets On Bitcoin Drop

I&rsquo;ve always found technical analysis to be a fantastic history lesson for the markets.&nbsp; If you want to consider how the current conditions relate to previous market cycles, just compare the charts and you usually have a pretty good starting point for the discussion.
As we near the end of an incredibly bullish year for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq, I&rsquo;m seeing plenty of signals that suggest the strength of 2024 may lead to a much weaker following year.&nbsp; Today we&rsquo;ll compare 2024 to 2021, talk about the many conditions which are highly similar, and also review an initial signal from one of the most bearish indicators in our arsenal, the Hindenburg Omen.
<h3>Market Trend Model Shows Striking Similarities</h3>
2024 has been a strong market year by any standards, from the continuous upward slope of moving averages, to the relatively low volatility compared to previous years, to the minimal drawdowns along the way.&nbsp; My Market Trend Model is what I often use to make an initial comparison between two historical periods, and it certainly backs up this particular conjecture.
<img alt="" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u1465983/markettrend_2024-11-22.png" style="height:312px; width:624px" />
Note our long-term model (purple histogram) has been bullish for all of 2024, exactly as we logged in 2021.&nbsp; We can see the same pattern of consistent bullishness from the medium-term mode (green histogram) for both years.&nbsp; Even the short-term model appears to identify pullbacks of a similar time frame and depth for both years.
<h3>2021 Finished Strong But 2022 Brought a Whole New Trend</h3>
2021 ended in a position of strength, with the S&amp;P 500 making a new high going into year-end.&nbsp; However, the moment the calendar was flipped to 2022, everything quickly changed to a bearish phase.&nbsp; The short-term model turned almost immediately, and instead of quickly turning back higher, it remained bearish for weeks at a time.&nbsp;&nbsp;
The medium-term model, which I consider my main risk on/risk off indicator, turned bearish in mid-January and remains so until the end of Q1.&nbsp; So what differentiated early 2022 from the garden variety and very buyable pullbacks of 2021 was the medium-term model behaved quite differently.
As we head into year-end 2024, this is perhaps the most important chart in <a href="http://marketmisbehavior.com/charts">my Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList</a>, as it would help confirm whether an impending selloff is different from the relatively painless and short-lived pullbacks in 2024.
<h3>The Hindenburg Omen Suggests a Potential Topping Pattern</h3>
Strategist Jim Miekka created the <a href="https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/trading-strategies-and-models/trading-strategies/hindenburg-omen">Hindenburg Omen</a> by reviewing a series of previous major market tops and looking for similarities.&nbsp; He honed in on three particular factors:
<ul>
<li>The market in a confirmed as measured by the 50-day ROC of the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA).</li>
<li>At least 2.5% of the NYSE stocks make a new 52-week AND a new 52-low on the same day.</li>
<li>The McClellan Oscillator breaks below zero, confirming negative breadth conditions.</li>
</ul>
One final signal Miekka included was that there should be two independent signals within one month.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<img alt="" src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/u1465983/hinden_2024-11-22.png" style="height:303px; width:624px" />
In the bottom panel, I&rsquo;m showing a composite indicator on StockCharts that tracks the three conditions listed above.&nbsp; You may notice that there have been a number of initial signals so far in 2024, but at no time have we received the confirmation signal within one month of the initial signal!
That&rsquo;s where we&rsquo;re at as we look forward to year-end 2024.&nbsp; Weakening breadth conditions and investor indecision, and now it&rsquo;s all about whether we receive that confirmation by mid-December.&nbsp; If so, that would suggest that early 2025 may look painfully similar to a very bearish early 2022!
<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ek3wj00jknI?si=YBo4tVcPkEaWfRQ6" width="560"></iframe>
RR#6, Dave
PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?&nbsp; Check out my <a href="https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse">free behavioral investing course</a>!
David Keller, CMT President and Chief Strategist Sierra Alpha Research LLC
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.&nbsp; The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.&nbsp;&nbsp;
The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.&nbsp; &nbsp; Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

2024 Is Shaping Up Much Like 2021, A Year That Ultimately Did Not Conclude Well

A new YouTube series, High Science, is set to debut on Nov. 27, offering viewers an unfiltered look into <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/cannabis">the world of cannabis. </a>
Hosted by Rich Batenburg Jr. and Rick Batenburg III, — a father and son entrepreneurial team who serve as chief executive officer and secretary of the board, respectively, of Clear Cannabis Inc.&nbsp;— the eight-episode show promises to explore the plant's potential as both an innovative industry and a powerful medicinal tool.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="High Science&#xAE; &#x7C; Official Season One Sizzle Reel" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bAkLBaAONLA?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Bold Vision Born From Personal Experience</h3>
<a href="https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/marijuana/scottsdale-based-high-science-show-explores-world-legal-weed-20631800">According</a> to Phoenix New Times, the concept for the show originated from an unlikely source: Scottsdale-based event promoter Ed Leclere. After undergoing brain surgery in 2018, Leclere credited cannabis for helping him manage his condition, sparking an idea to combine education and entertainment in a series exploring cannabis innovation.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/42173811/hemp-and-thanksgiving-from-the-mayflower-to-independence-the-crop-that-helped-build-a-nation">Hemp And Thanksgiving: From The Mayflower To Independence, The Crop That Helped Build A Nation</a>
"When they finally did the surgery, they said it was more cyst-like than tumor. So I believe the cannabis was helping to break it down, even though the neurosurgeon didn't think so," Leclere said. "The doctors and Big Pharma don't believe anything other than what they prescribe."
Leclere's idea gained momentum when he teamed up with David McKillop, a two-time Emmy winner known for creating hit reality series like Duck Dynasty and Pawn Stars. McKillop joined the project as president and creative director, impressed by the vision of retaining full ownership of the show's intellectual property.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Cannabis Innovation On A Global Stage</h3>
High Science takes viewers on a journey through the cannabis industry, showcasing innovators and trailblazers from around the globe. The show highlights leaders like Moe Asnani and Chip Boyden of Arizona-based wholesaler iLAVA, as well as Yuri Downing, a cannabis entrepreneur who helped shape Arizona's licensing landscape.
Beyond Arizona, the series ventures to Massachusetts, Jamaica, and Australia, introducing viewers to legends like Jon Piasecki and Johnny GreenFingaz. Leclere refers to these individuals as "OGs" who have shaped the cannabis space for decades.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why YouTube Became The Home For ‘High Science'</h3>
Bringing High Science to a<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/23/05/32457197/cannabis-x-cannabis-the-new-documentary-series-unveiling-the-impact-of-cannabis-in-latin-america"> mainstream audience</a> came with its own set of challenges. Leclere and McKillop discovered that traditional networks were hesitant to air content focusing directly on cannabis due to its federal illegality in the United States. Many networks wanted to pivot the concept into more generalized business ventures, which clashed with the creators' vision of authenticity.
"YouTube allowed us to maintain creative freedom," Leclere explained. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Advocating For Plant-Based Medicine</h3>
At the heart of High Science lies a deeper mission: promoting cannabis as a legitimate plant-based medicine. Over the years, the plant's benefits have been embraced by those seeking relief for conditions like PTSD, epilepsy, anxiety, and chronic pain. Many of the show's featured personalities have long advocated for cannabis, even during its prohibition.
"These guys believe in this plant and have spent so many years in the underground, that when it finally started going legal, they came out of the dark into the light," Lecrere said.
In addition to the series, Leclere has launched the High Science Charity Foundation, which aims to support plant-based research and education, with a particular focus on underserved communities and veterans. Looking ahead, Leclere is considering expanding the series into the realm of psychedelic medicine for a potential second season.
"Plant-based therapy and clinical studies in plant-based medicine is the way to go," he continued. "And Big Pharma can't do nothing about it."
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Image courtesy: High Science.

YouTube's High Science Is A Must-Watch For Cannabis Enthusiasts

Backwell will continue in his current role as Chief Executive Officer of QIND. &nbsp;Gavin Jones continues as the Company's Chief Financial Officer.
The Company has also announced that the hearing to appeal the delisting of its securities from Nasdaq has been scheduled for January 7, 2025. Management is confident that following the close of this transaction and the consolidation of financials, Fusion Fuel will meet the stockholder equity requirements for continued listing.
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DXYZ

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Maximus Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MMS#NYSE">MMS</a>) shares are volatile in extended trading Tuesday after the company announced the cancellation of a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/11/b42201228/u-s-department-of-health-and-human-services-centers-for-medicare-and-medicaid-services-notify-maxi">contact center operations contract</a>.
What Happened: After the market close on Tuesday, Maximus said it received notification from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) that the federal agency has canceled the Contact Center Operations (CCO) 1-800-MEDICARE and Federal Marketplace solicitation.
The company said the contract covered the same scope of work Maximus currently performs under separate contracts through option periods available until 2031.
&#8220;Maximus employees have consistently demonstrated their ability to successfully manage this critical program providing essential support to more than 75 million eligible Americans who rely on Medicare and the Federal Marketplace,&#8221; said Bruce Caswell, president and CEO of Maximus.
&#8220;We appreciate the opportunity to continue supporting HHS and CMS in their vital missions and look forward to delivering innovative, high-quality, and reliable solutions that benefit the American public.&#8221;
Maximus helps improve the delivery of public services&nbsp;as a strategic partner to governments around the world.
MMS Price Action: Maximus shares were volatile at the start of the after-hours session, but were trading approximately flat by the time of publication Tuesday at $73, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
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Photo: Shutterstock.

Health Care

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Kentucky took a significant step in its medical cannabis program on Monday, awarding the first 36 dispensary licenses through a randomized lottery system. Governor Andy Beshear announced the winners, emphasizing the program's fairness and focus on providing safe and affordable access to medical cannabis for patients with chronic illnesses like cancer and PTSD.
<ul>
<li>Get Benzinga&#8217;s exclusive analysis and the top news about the cannabis industry and markets daily in your inbox for free. Subscribe to our newsletter&nbsp;<a href="https://newsletteremail.benzinga.com/subscribe" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">here</a>. You can't afford to miss out if you&#8217;re serious about the business.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Regional Allocation And Next Steps</h3>
The licenses were distributed across nine of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/kentucky-cannabis">Kentucky</a>'s 11 designated regions, ensuring geographic spread and reducing travel times for patients. Each region received four licenses, with businesses selected using a random number generator. Winners have 15 days to pay a $30,000 licensing fee or forfeit their license. Additional lotteries for the Lexington and Louisville metropolitan areas will occur on December 16.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/24/11/41843261/kentucky-gov-beshear-the-jury-is-no-longer-out-kentuckians-want-medical-cannabis">Kentucky Gov. Beshear: &#8216;The Jury Is No Longer Out,&#8217; Kentuckians Want Medical Cannabis</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Application Surge And Market Stability</h3>
The Kentucky Office of Medical Cannabis received nearly 5,000 applications, with 4,075 specifically for dispensaries. This overwhelming interest reflects the market&#8217;s potential. Executive director Sam Flynn highlighted efforts to avoid over saturation, drawing lessons from Kentucky's hemp industry collapse.
Beshear reiterated the program&#8217;s goal of <a href="https://www.lpm.org/news/2024-11-25/beshear-announces-first-ky-cannabis-dispensary-license-winners-defends-lottery-process">starting small to ensure market stability</a>, with room to expand as demand grows.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Concerns About Out-Of-State Influence</h3>
Criticism has emerged over potential out-of-state dominance in the licensing process. Companies linked to multiple winning applications, have raised questions about fairness. Beshear defended the process, noting that each winning business must incorporate and operate within <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/kentucky-cannabis">Kentucky</a>.
Medical cannabis certification for qualifying patients begins December 1, along with an online directory of licensed practitioners. While there is no set timeline for dispensary openings, Beshear assured that businesses have strong incentives to launch quickly, aiming to provide in-state access by January 1, 2025.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/10/41608654/kentucky-and-delaware-held-cannabis-licensing-lotteries-ushering-in-new-regulated-markets">Kentucky And Delaware Held Cannabis Licensing Lotteries, Ushering In New Regulated Markets</a>

Regulations

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Kentucky Awards First Medical Cannabis Dispensary Licenses

The Company said it is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for its healthcare solutions and to continue driving value for stakeholders.

Guidance

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Berlin&#8217;s Senator for Justice Felor Badenberg recently criticized Germany's cannabis law. According to Badenberg, contrary to the objectives of the law, legalization actually made the fight against the black market and organized crime more difficult, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.zeit.de/news/2024-11/26/berliner-justizsenatorin-cannabis-gesetz-aufheben" rel="noreferrer noopener">writes</a> Zeit online, according to translation.
"What was touted by the federal government as a milestone in drug policy has proven in practice to be a serious mistake that will cause long-term damage to our country," the CDU politician told the German Press Agency. "It has to be repealed."
On Thursday, Nov. 28th, a conference of justice ministers of the federal states will be held and experiences with the cannabis law will be discussed.
Partial cannabis legalization <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/04/38023610/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-weed-legalization-in-germany-that-just-took-effect" rel="noreferrer noopener">took effect in Germany on April 1</a>, making it the third country in the European Union to legalize adult-use cannabis after <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/21/12/24601584/maltas-parliament-says-yes-to-cannabis-legalization-becoming-first-in-europe-to-legalize-weed" rel="noreferrer noopener">Malta and</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/23/06/33063370/another-eu-country-legalizes-weed-top-gov-official-calls-cannabis-criminalization-a-failure" rel="noreferrer noopener">Luxembourg</a>. Under this first pillar of cannabis legalization, adults over 18 can legally possess up to 25 grams of dried cannabis flower and cultivate up to three marijuana plants at home. One of the biggest breakthroughs under the law is that medical cannabis is essentially <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/07/39830117/medical-marijuana-regulated-as-ibuprofen-is-one-of-the-biggest-breakthroughs-of-germanys-cannabi" rel="noreferrer noopener">regulated like ibuprofen.</a>
However, Berlin's proposed resolution argues that the law has caused troubles in effort to deal with the illegal market and organized criminal activities, especially in the commercial trade in cannabis products. The issues lies in the fact that the law change disabled telephone surveillance, online searches in its usual extent. This means that not all the evidence are allowed to be used in criminal proceedings.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Read Also: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/24/11/41885393/germanys-govt-coalition-crisis-is-cannabis-reform-at-risk" rel="noreferrer noopener">Germany&#8217;s Govt. Coalition Crisis, Is Cannabis Reform At Risk?</a>
Get Benzinga's exclusive analysis and the top news about the cannabis industry and markets daily in your inbox for free. Subscribe to our newsletter <a target="_blank" href="https://newsletteremail.benzinga.com/subscribe" rel="noreferrer noopener">here</a>. If you're serious about the business, you can't afford to miss out.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Drug Dealers As Beneficiaries Of The Law</h2>
One specific case that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/09/40697724/weed-smuggler-among-few-freed-under-germanys-new-cannabis-law" rel="noreferrer noopener">recently made headlines</a>, involves a 36-year-old man who smuggled 450 kilograms (992.08 lbs) of cannabis into Germany, estimated to be worth 1.9 million euros ($2.1 million). The controversy arises from the new law, which doesn&#8217;t consider cannabis-related crimes as serious crimes and therefore the prosecutors can&#8217;t use encrypted chats from the provider Encrochat as evidence. The man was released, prompting Baden-Württemberg's Minister of Justice, Marion Gentges (CDU), to say, "Drug dealers are beneficiaries of this law.&#8221;
The case was before the Mannheim Regional Court, but the court's judgment is not yet legally binding, writes the outlet. However it is raising questions among the judiciary nationwide, and cannabis opponents are using it as an argument against the reform.
The German government is working on the second pillar of its cannabis legalization law –setting up municipal five-year pilot programs for state-controlled marijuana to be sold in licensed shops. Moreover, it was recently confirmed that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/10/41662047/frankfurt-and-hannover-prepare-for-cannabis-sales-study-amid-health-alarms-over-black-market-con" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">recreational cannabis sales will launch in Hannover and Frankfurt</a> next year under a pilot program set to last five years.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/24/11/42126680/german-cannabis-20-tons-10m-grams-and-thats-only-0-3-of-the-market-whats-missing" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">German Cannabis: 20 Tons, 10M Grams &#8211; And That&#8217;s Only 0.3% Of The Market, What&#8217;s Missing?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/11/42069381/european-leaders-meet-in-berlin-to-discuss-cannabis-policies" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">European Leaders Meet In Berlin To Discuss Cannabis Policies</a></li>
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Photo: Courtesy of Plateresca via Shutterstock

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Berlin's Justice Senator Says Cannabis Law Benefits Mafia-Like Structures And It Should Be Repealed

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