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The Fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index (the Index), an index that is made up of stocks of large, mid-size, and small U.S. companies within the real estate sector, as classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS).

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Markets saw a brief reprieve Friday as the Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred inflation gauge came in below expectations, tempering concerns of mounting volatility after this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/12/42615908/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-more-than-expected-markets-breathe-sigh-of-relief">week's hawkish policy pivot.</a>
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, missing the 2.5% forecast. On a monthly basis, the gauge slowed to 0.1%, down from 0.2% in October and below projections for steady growth.
Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained at 2.8% annually, slightly under the 2.9% estimate. The monthly core reading also decelerated to 0.1% from 0.3%, undershooting the 0.2% forecast.
Even with Friday's softer inflation print, traders seemed hesitant to enter a buy-everything mode after the sharp volatility seen earlier this week. 
The slightly tempered reaction suggests a degree of caution remains entrenched among investors as they assess the Fed's hawkish tone.
New York Fed President John Williams, interviewed by CNBC, reiterated that &#8220;monetary policy continues to be restrictive.&#8221; 
Williams described the recent inflation data as &#8220;encouraging news,&#8221; highlighting further disinflation progress. Yet, he indicated that &#8220;we&#8217;re still not to our 2% goal&#8221; and reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to achieving that target.
&#8220;I think the economy is a good place and most importantly for me, monetary policy is well positioned,&#8221; he added. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Adds Some Gains, Yet &#8220;Don&#8217;t Fight The Fed&#8221; Remains The Mantra</h1>
U.S. equity markets saw modest gains following November&#8217;s softer-than-expected inflation data, as investor caution lingered after the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy shift earlier this week.
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500: The broader market index — as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) — edged up from 5,800 to 5,840 by 9:50 a.m. in New York, down by 0.4% for the day.</li>
<li>Dow Jones: The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) gained 0.4% after the release.</li>
<li>Nasdaq 100: Tech stocks fared better, with the Nasdaq QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) adding 0.6% and recovering from steeper pre-market declines.</li>
<li>Real estate was the strongest-performing sector, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) rising by 1.1%. </li>
<li>Russell 2000: Small-cap stocks showed the largest rebound, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) up by 0.1%. </li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) witnessed a 0.8% rally. </li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Yields Ease, Dollar Falls And Gold Rebounds</h1>
Bond markets saw some relief as Treasury yields fell following several days of sharp increases. 
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dropped five basis points to 4.70%, lifting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) by 0.8%. This marks a partial recovery after the ETF plunged more than 3% over the previous two sessions.
Yields on shorter-dated two-year Treasury notes fell by seven basis points.
The U.S. dollar index — as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — weakened by 0.3%.
Gold prices rose, as the precious metal benefited from lower Treasury yields and the declining dollar. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) increased by 0.7%.
In the cryptocurrency market, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) trimmed premarket losses to 0.9%, as the largest cryptocurrency surged back above $95,000 levels. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/12/42606037/etf-market-hits-records-in-2024-inflows-reach-16-trillion-7-funds-top-ranking">ETF Market Sets Records In 2024 As Inflows Reach $1.6 Trillion: 7 Funds Leading Charge</a></li>
</ul>
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Market Volatility Halts On Soft Inflation Data, Yet Traders Remain Wary Of Fighting The Fed: 10 ETFs Moving Friday

2025 promises to be a transformative year for the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate">U.S. housing market</a>, offering fresh opportunities but also keeping everyone on their toes. 
Zillow Group Inc's (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZG#NASDAQ">ZG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/Z#NASDAQ">Z</a>) latest <a href="https://www.zillow.com/research/2025-housing-predictions-34620/">predictions</a> reveal shifting dynamics for buyers, sellers, and renters. Investors in the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), the Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>), and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) track these dynamics closely.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/short-ideas/24/12/42265808/top-3-real-estate-stocks-that-may-plunge-this-quarter">Top 3 Real Estate Stocks That May Plunge This Quarter</a>
Here are five trends to watch closely:
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">1. Breathing Room For Buyers Amid A Modest Market</h2>
Good news for buyers: more inventory is set to hit the market, giving you time to weigh options and negotiate harder. Zillow forecasts a modest 2.6% home value growth and an uptick in existing home sales to 4.3 million, signaling a gradual thaw in a market that's been tight for years.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2. Mortgage Rate Whiplash</h2>
Mortgage rates will remain the wildcard. While Zillow expects rates to ease overall, their volatility could unsettle even seasoned buyers. Expect refinancing booms during dips and a roller-coaster affordability picture throughout the year.
Investors in the iShares MBS ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MBB#NYSE">MBB</a>) and the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VMBS#NYSE">VMBS</a>) may face heightened uncertainty.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">3. Buyers Markets Spread Westward</h2>
Currently concentrated in the Southeast, buyers markets are predicted to expand into the Southwest, giving buyers more power in negotiations. 
If mortgage rates fall significantly, however, sellers might regain the upper hand as competition heats up.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">4. The Rise of Smaller, Smarter Homes</h2>
Forget large mansions. Compact, purpose-driven homes are taking center stage. Listings describing properties as "cozy" have surged 35%, reflecting a cultural shift toward sustainable, affordable living. Urban condos are also stabilizing in value, according to Zillow, drawing buyers back to city life.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">5. Renter Perks Are On Borrowed Time</h2>
A surge in multifamily construction has made 2024 a renter-friendly year, with concessions like free rent and parking aplenty. But Zillow predicts these perks will wane by late 2025 as the rental market tightens. Renters with pets will remain a dominant force, pushing property managers to adopt more pet-friendly policies or risk losing tenants.
2025's housing market is set to be more active and buyer-friendly, but unpredictability looms large. From mortgage rate swings to shifting buyer trends, staying agile and informed will be key to making the most of this evolving landscape.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/12/42287030/real-estate-veteran-pens-open-letter-to-donald-trump-resurrecting-housing-will-require-innovative-and-daring-solutions">Real Estate Veteran Pens Open Letter To Donald Trump: &#8216;Resurrecting Housing Will Require Innovative And Daring Solutions&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

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5 Housing Market Trends For 2025: What Zillow's Forecast Means For You

Wall Street is on track for its third consecutive day of losses as investors grow cautious about risky assets, awaiting more clarity on U.S. fiscal and monetary policies and scrutinizing the latest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings">batch of corporate earnings.</a>
Both equities and commodities took a hit on Wednesday, while the U.S. dollar gained strength, attracting investor flows as traders moved to safer cash positions.
The U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.5%, reaching levels last seen in late July. 
At midday in New York, the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.7%, attempting to hold support around the 5,800-point level. The Dow Jones also dropped 0.7%, and tech stocks, along with small caps, fared worse, sliding by 0.9%.
On the data front, mortgage applications declined for the fourth straight week, reflecting continued pressure <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41488744/mortgage-applications-fall-for-fourth-straight-week-as-high-rates-squeeze-homebuy">from elevated borrowing costs.</a>
Existing home sales fell by 1% in September to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.84 million, the lowest level since October 2010. This follows an upwardly revised 3.88 million in August and missed forecasts of 3.9 million.
Despite weak housing data, real estate stocks showed surprising resilience. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>) moved higher after two straight sessions of losses.
Gold prices, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), fell more than 1%, pulling mining stocks down with it. Silver plummeted over 3%, retreating from 12-year highs reached on Tuesday.
Oil prices slipped by 1%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) tumbled 2%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,815.02</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,625.59</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,213.10</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,196.24</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated 12:00 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent102224&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.6% to $579.72.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.7% lower to $426.41.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 1% to $491.16.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.7% $219.80.</li>
<li>The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) outperformed, up 0.6%. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) lagged, down 1%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul>
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) fell 2.4% after reporting a worse-than-expected losses<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/10/41486950/boeing-q3-earnings-revenue-and-profit-decline-cultural-challenges-ceo-ortberg-vows-transformation"> last quarter</a>.</li>
</ul>
Other stocks reacting to earnings included:
<ul>
<li>Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXN#NASDAQ">TXN</a>), up 3.5%.</li>
<li>Baker Hughes Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKR#NASDAQ">BKR</a>), up 3.9%.</li>
<li>Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STX#NASDAQ">STX</a>), down over 7%.</li>
<li>Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKG#NYSE">PKG</a>), up over 6%.</li>
<li>Manhattan Associates Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MANH#NASDAQ">MANH</a>), down over 7%.</li>
<li>East West Bancorp. Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWBC#NASDAQ">EWBC</a>), up over 7%.</li>
<li>Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>), down over 13%.</li>
<li>Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KO#NYSE">KO</a>), down 2.2%. </li>
<li>Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMO#NYSE">TMO</a>), down 2.9%.</li>
<li>NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEE#NYSE">NEE</a>), down 0.1%. </li>
<li>AT&amp;T Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/T#NYSE">T</a>), up 3.8%. </li>
<li>Boston Scientific Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BSX#NYSE">BSX</a>), down 3.7%. </li>
<li>CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CME#NASDAQ">CME</a>), down 0.9%. </li>
<li>GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>), down 1.6%. </li>
<li>Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HLT#NYSE">HLT</a>), down 2.6%. </li>
<li>Vertiv Holdings LLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VRT#NYSE">VRT</a>), down 2.8%. </li>
<li>Old Dominion Freight Line Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ODFL#NASDAQ">ODFL</a>), down 4.8%. </li>
</ul>
Large-cap companies reporting earnings after the close include Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMUS#NASDAQ">TMUS</a>), International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBM#NYSE">IBM</a>), ServiceNow Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOW#NYSE">NOW</a>), Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LRCX#NASDAQ">LRCX</a>), Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>), United Rentals Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/URI#NYSE">URI</a>), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LVS#NYSE">LVS</a>), Raymond James Financial Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RJF#NYSE">RJF</a>). 
Read Now:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/24/10/41455678/gold-on-track-for-best-year-since-1979-veteran-investor-says-sell-bonds-buy-gold">Gold On Track For Best Year Since 1979: Veteran Investor Says &#8216;Sell Bonds, Buy Gold&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

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Wall Street Slumps For Third Straight Day As Investor Sentiment Fades, Dollar Strength Resumes, Boeing Disappoints: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

Boxer Floyd Mayweather isn't just collecting championship belts anymore — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/real-estate">now he's after buildings</a>.
What Happened: According to <a href="https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2024/10/16/floyd-mayweather-in-contract-on-402m-black-spruce-multifamily-portfolio/">The Real Deal</a>, the undefeated champ — known for the moniker &#8220;Money&#8221; — is set to drop a cool $402 million for a 1,000-unit affordable housing portfolio, spread across more than 60 buildings. 
On the sell side is Josh Gotlib of Black Spruce Management.
A slice of the deal already closed on Wednesday, with the rest expected to close in the fourth quarter or early 2025.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/10/41272556/renters-say-kamala-harris-beats-trump-on-housing-affordability-48-choose-the-vice-president">Renters Say Kamala Harris Beats Trump On Housing Affordability, 48% Choose The Vice President</a>
Why It Matters: There is a significant shortage of affordable housing in New York City. The city has long struggled with it, and the problem has worsened in recent years due to several factors, per the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/nyregion/apartment-vacancy-rate-housing-crisis.html">New York Times</a> citing city data.
Mayweather&#8217;s newly acquired portfolio is concentrated in Upper Manhattan and expected to stay affordable if the retired fighter intends to take advantage of tax breaks.
<ol>
<li></li>
</ol>
Some of the Black Spruce buildings sold to Mayweather have the benefit of an Article XI tax exemption. That means the properties enjoy up to 40 years of tax breaks — as long as they're at least two-thirds affordable. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs To Watch</h1>
Real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) closed in the green Wednesday afternoon:
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) was up 1.02% at $101.96
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), 0.12% at $97.64. 
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>), up 1% at $44.72
Keep Reading:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41312782/trumps-economic-policies-expected-to-drive-inflation-and-deficits-higher-than-harris-economists-say" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Who's Better For Economy? Not Trump. Economists Say Ex-President's Policies Will Drive Inflation, Deficits</a></li>
</ul>
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'Money' Floyd Mayweather To Spend $402M On Affordable NYC Apartment Portfolio

RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RMAX#NYSE">RMAX</a>) released its National Housing Report for September 2024, which showed home sales slowed 13.3% from August and the median sales price <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/n41330285/remax-national-housing-report-for-september-2024">dropped 1.4% from August to $429,000.&nbsp;</a>
The Details: RE/MAX explained the September home sales dip was a seasonal norm and pointed to prior decreases of 13.8% and 9.7% from August to September in 2023 and 2022, respectively. However, sales were 3.1% below September 2023 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41249628/mortgage-rates-make-dramatic-u-turn-freezing-homebuyers-applications-fall-5-as-ma">levels while the median home price</a> was 4.6% higher than in September 2023.
&#8220;While we&#8217;re seeing a slight cooling in sales, it&#8217;s encouraging to note that home inventory has been steadily increasing, giving buyers more options in the market,&#8221; said RE/MAX President Amy Lessinger.&nbsp;
&#8220;The consistency in sales prices and the fact that buyers are still paying 99% of asking price demonstrates the resiliency in today&#8217;s housing market. Lower rates could generate some increased activity as we end 2024 and start 2025,&#8221; Lessinger added.&nbsp;
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41321699/oil-prices-drop-after-netanyahu-says-israel-will-attack-military-not-oil-or-nuclear-targets-in-iran">Oil Prices Drop After Netanyahu Says Israel Will Attack Military, Not Oil Or Nuclear Targets In Iran</a>
Hot Markets: The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in median sales price were Hartford, Connecticut, up 11.9%; Cleveland, Ohio, up 9.1% and Providence, Rhode Island, up 8.9%. New listings were up 35.9% year-over-year in Bozeman, Montana; up 32.8% in Phoenix, Arizona and Las Vegas, Nevada, saw the number of new listings rise 27.5%.
Cooling Markets: The markets with the biggest year-over-year decrease in median sales price were Coeur d&#8217;Alene, Idaho, down 4.7%; San Antonio, Texas, down 3.1% and Tampa, Florida, down 2.6%. Tampa also saw the number of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/10/41332284/floridas-housing-market-faces-major-setback-as-high-insurance-costs-and-storm-concerns-drive-buyers">new listings</a> fall 12.3% from September 2023 and new listings in San Antonio decreased 9.1%.
Real Estate ETFs: Though inventory is increasing, the U.S. housing market remains tight with buyers paying 99% of the asking price in September. Another way to invest in the housing market is through ETFs which track the U.S. real estate market, usually through Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). 
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) has gained 20% over the past six months and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) is up nearly 22% since April 2024. 
RMAX, VNQ, XLRE Price Action: According to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/?gspk=YWRhbWVja2VydDUzMzY&amp;gsxid=zBMR4PKmcgBw">Benzinga Pro</a>, RE/MAX shares are up 3.03% at $12.23, Vanguard Real Estate shares are up 1.92% at $97.09 and Real Estate Select Sector SPDR shares are up 1.81% at $44.52 at the time of publication Tuesday.
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Photo: Shutterstock&nbsp;

News

RMAX

September Sales Chill, Prices Cool — But What Markets Are Hot?

American homeowners and prospective buyers had been biding their time, waiting for a decisive move from the Federal Reserve to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mortgages">reignite the mortgage market. </a>
That moment came on Sept. 18, when the Fed&#8217;s large and unexpected 50-basis-point rate cut—bringing the target range to 4.75%-5%—opened the floodgates for mortgage refinancing and home purchases.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), applications jumped 11% in the week ending Sept. 20, building on the previous week's 14.2% surge and pushing activity to its highest level since June 2022.
The spike in demand has closely followed the broader trend in benchmark mortgage rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed — often the go-to option for American homebuyers — fell to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">two-year low of 6.13%.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Refinancing Boom: Time To Seize Mortgage Moment</h3>
The surge of activity was particularly elevated in refinancing, which had been dormant amid years of high borrowing costs. 
Refinancing applications soared by 20% last week, as homeowners moved quickly to lock in lower rates and cut their monthly mortgage payments. 
The refinance application index has rallied to levels last seen in late March 2022. Lower mortgage rates can directly translate into lower monthly payments for millions of Americans, making refinancing an appealing option. For example, a homeowner with a $300,000 loan at a 7% rate could save around $300 per month if they refinance into a 6% loan. 
Historically, periods of falling interest rates have coincided with stronger home-buying activity, and this time appears to be no different.
"Mortgage rates likely had this cut — and this expected rate path — priced in, and lower mortgage rates, now close to 6%, have resulted in much more refinance and some additional purchase activity in recent weeks," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA&#8217;s senior vice president and chief economist.
&#8220;If mortgage rates remain near these levels, it will support a stronger-than-typical fall housing market, and next spring could see a real rebound in activity," he added. 
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), which tracks the broader real estate sector, was flat in premarket trading following the news. Similarly, the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>), which has more direct exposure to the housing market, held steady. 
Meanwhile, the VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MORT#NYSE">MORT</a>) saw a slight uptick of 0.5%. 
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Image: Shutterstock

MORT

iShares FTSE NAREIT Residential PLUS Capped Index Fund

Mortgage Demand Soars As Fed Interest Rate Cut Fuels Housing Market Revival: 'Next Spring Could See A Real Rebound'

The Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent 50 basis point rate cut marks a notable shift in monetary policy, with significant implications for both the U.S. economy <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets">and global markets</a>. 
Fund managers and strategists are weighing in on what this means for investors and what to expect next.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">KraneShares: Fed's Rate Cut Signals A Cycle</h2>
Brendan Ahern, CIO of KraneShares, believes the Fed's 50 bps rate cut is the beginning of a larger easing cycle.
According to Ahern, &#8220;Another 50 basis point reduction is expected later this year, with an additional 100 basis points projected for 2025.&#8221; 
While some fear the possibility of a mild recession, Ahern points out that the U.S. economy is still displaying resilience. "Unemployment remains low, inflation is easing, consumer spending is holding strong, and corporate profits are generally stable," he notes, suggesting the potential for a "soft landing" instead of a hard downturn.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Russell Investments: Softer Stance Could Boost Markets</h2>
Paul Eitelman, chief investment strategist at Russell Investments, shares a more tempered yet optimistic view, noting that the Fed&#8217;s focus is shifting from aggressive inflation control to stabilizing economic growth.
&#8220;This marked the start of a long-awaited easing cycle,&#8221; he said, adding that the Fed is aiming to prevent major damage to the labor market.
Eitelman expects the Fed to maintain a steady pace of cuts—25 bps at each meeting through 2025—to balance risks. Should this strategy succeed, sectors like real estate and small caps could benefit from lower rates and a stabilizing economy.
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and the SPDR Real Estate Select Sector ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) are two of the most popular real estate equity tracking ETFs in the U.S. 
On the small-cap front, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) and the iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWO#NYSE">IWO</a>) are two popular ETFs tracking the Russell 2000 Index &#8211; a popular benchmark for small-cap equity in the U.S. The iShares Core S&amp;P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IJR#NYSE">IJR</a>) and the Vanguard Small Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VB#NYSE">VB</a>) are two other popular small-cap equity-tracking ETFs.
Don't miss out on this unparalleled opportunity:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Register now to secure your spot at Benzinga's Largest SmallCap Conference ever in Chicago!</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">WisdomTree&#8217;s Senior Economist: &#8220;I Am Surprised"</h2>
WisdomTree senior economist Professor Jeremy Siegel offered a candid take, expressing surprise at the Fed's bold move. &#8220;I&#8217;ll have to say, I am surprised. I was saying of course I wanted 50, you know I even wanted more, but I didn&#8217;t think he was going to do it.&#8221;
Siegel&#8217;s analysis also highlights the Fed's response to catching up with inflation control. "They realize that they were a bit behind the curve and now they are catching up," he said.
Siegel believes the rate cuts lower the probability of a recession, helping sustain economic strength.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Emerging Markets: A Beneficiary Of Lower Rates?</h2>
KraneShares' Ahern also highlights the potential boost for emerging markets. A weaker U.S. dollar resulting from lower rates could &#8220;strengthen emerging market currencies,&#8221; and increased capital inflows may follow. Investors in the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEMG#NYSE">IEMG</a>) and the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VWO#NYSE">VWO</a>) are well-positioned to benefit from the strengthening of emerging market equities.
Chinese assets, in particular, are attracting global investors as they trade at low valuations. Investors in the iShares MSCI China ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHI#NYSE">MCHI</a>) and the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KWEB#NYSE">KWEB</a>) are positioned to benefit from any increase in fund flows towards Chinese equities.
Ahern advises closely watching both U.S. policy shifts and China's economic recovery for potential opportunities in this space.
While the Fed's aggressive 50 bps cut has caught many by surprise, fund managers and strategists agree it may provide much-needed relief to financial markets, with growth sectors and emerging markets standing to benefit from the shift.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Asia

Emerging Markets

Small Cap Analysis

Emerging Market ETFs

IEMG

KWEB

MCHI

Fed 'Catching Up' With 50-Point Rate Cut: Fund Managers Expect Gains In Emerging Markets, Small Caps

The Federal Reserve is set to sprinkle some interest rate fairy dust, and small-cap sectors are lining up to see who'll soar or stumble. While the Russell 2000 is stealing the spotlight with its 5% surge ahead of the rate cut, not all small caps will feel the same love from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/small-cap-analysis">lower borrowing costs</a>. 
So, what sectors should investors be eyeing, and where do the best ETFs come into play?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Financials: Money Talks, But Who's Listening?</h2>
Small-cap financials, often living and breathing on rate-sensitive margins, are gearing up for a potential win. 
As borrowing costs fall, these lenders, insurers, and regional banks get a shot in the arm. For those looking to ride the wave, the iShares Russell 2000 Financials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWFN#NYSE">IWFN</a>) offers concentrated exposure to this potentially booming sector.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Real Estate: Open House For Gains?</h2>
Real estate stocks also stand to benefit as mortgage rates and financing costs drop. With rate cuts loosening the borrowing purse strings, real estate could experience a boost in demand and valuation. 
Investors eyeing the space might find the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) or iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) perfect for capturing the sector's expected rise.
Don&#8217;t miss out on this unparalleled opportunity:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Register now to secure your spot at Benzinga&#8217;s Largest SmallCap Conference ever in Chicago!</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Discretionary: Retail Therapy Ahead?</h2>
Lower interest rates also often mean more cash for consumers to splurge on non-essentials, giving a lift to small-cap retail, travel, and leisure names.
The SPDR S&amp;P 600 Small Cap Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PSCD#NYSE">PSCD</a>) is one way to jump on this sector's shopping spree.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Energy: A Wildcard In The Small-Cap Mix</h2>
Energy stocks are notorious for being tied to oil prices, but lower rates can still offer some breathing room for these debt-heavy companies. 
For those ready to hedge their bets, the SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) could be the small-cap energy ETF to watch.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40749609/this-small-cap-top-pick-is-positioned-for-strong-gains-jpmorgan-sees-over-50-upside">This Small Cap &#8216;Top Pick&#8217; Is Positioned For Strong Gains, JPMorgan Sees Over 50% Upside</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Technology, Healthcare: Resilient But&#8230; Rate-Resistant?</h2>
While technology and healthcare sectors aren't as rate-sensitive as financials or real estate, they remain staples in small-cap ETFs like the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) and Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VB#NYSE">VB</a>). 
Both funds are solid all-around plays for investors who want diversified exposure to the small-cap space, especially as uncertainty lingers.
As the Fed moves its rate-cutting wand, small-cap sectors will each feel the ripples differently. 
Whether you're banking on financials, betting on real estate, or shopping for consumer discretionary, there's a sector—and ETF—for every investor's playbook.
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</ul>
Don&#8217;t miss the opportunity to dominate in a volatile market at the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga SmallCAP Conference on Oct. 9-10, 2024</a>,&nbsp;at the Chicago Marriott Downtown Magnificent Mile.
Get exclusive access to CEO presentations, 1:1 meetings with investors, and valuable insights from top financial experts. Whether you&#8217;re a trader, entrepreneur, or investor, this event offers unparalleled opportunities to grow your portfolio and network with industry leaders.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Secure your spot and get your tickets today!</a>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Small Cap

IWFN

PSCD

Small-Cap Sectors Brace For Fed Rate Cut: Financials, Real Estate ETFs Offer Compelling Plays For Investors

Investors are increasingly eyeing the real estate sector with optimism as the Federal Reserve edges closer to initiating its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">much-anticipated rate-cut cycle.</a>
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have emerged as a standout performer in August, leading the market in gains while also becoming a magnet for investor inflows.
Five out of the 64 U.S.-listed real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have collectively pulled in a robust $2.2 billion in net inflows over the past month. 
This influx of capital represents more than half of the total inflows that these ETFs have attracted over the entire past year, as market participants increasingly bet on the real estate sector to benefit from lower borrowing costs and more favorable financial conditions ahead of the potential Fed rate cut in September. 
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, signaled that the Federal Reserve might consider lowering interest rates soon due to a noticeable cooling in the labor market. 
"The time has come for policy to adjust," he said, adding that &#8220;the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable.&#8221;
The Fed chair also expressed increased confidence that the economy is on a sustainable path toward the 2% inflation target. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5 Real Estate ETFs Attract Inflows As Investors Jump On Rate-Cut Winners</h3>
The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYR#NYSE">IYR</a>) led the inflows, attracting $805.6 million in net investments over the past month—a sum that represents two-thirds of the fund's total inflows for the past year. 
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) –&nbsp;the largest real estate ETF with $37 billion in assets under management – saw a strong recovery in August, pulling in $613.6 million and nearly offsetting its earlier outflows, bringing its yearly inflows close to breakeven. 
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) also experienced robust activity, with $498.6 million in net inflows over the last month. 
Other notable performers included the SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RWR#NYSE">RWR</a>) and the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>), which attracted $146.7 million and $136.8 million, respectively, during August.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF</th>
<th>1-Month Fund Flows ($mln)</th>
<th>1-Year Fund Flows ($mln)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF </td>
<td>805.6</td>
<td>1,193</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Real Estate ETF</td>
<td>613.6</td>
<td>-2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund </td>
<td>498.6</td>
<td>2,063</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR DJ Wilshire REIT ETF </td>
<td>146.7</td>
<td>132.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF</td>
<td>136.8</td>
<td>95.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>2,201.3</td>
<td>3,481.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: TradingView, as of Aug. 27, 2024</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Real Estate Sector Benefits From Interest Rate Cuts</h3>
Lower household borrowing costs and improved refinancing opportunities, fueled by expectations of declining interest rates, can significantly boost the profitability of real estate companies.
Real estate stocks, as represented by the VNQ ETF, have climbed 35% since their October 2023 lows, with a striking 14% gain in just the last two months, far outpacing the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)&#8217;s modest 3% rise over the same period. 
This robust outperformance in real estate stocks aligns closely with growing market expectations for impending interest rate cuts.
As illustrated in the chart below, the largest real estate ETF has moved inversely to the 2-year Treasury yield, a crucial indicator of market expectations for short-term interest rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Declining 2-Year Yields Fuel Rally In Real Estate Stocks</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="508" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-1024x508.png" alt="" class="wp-image-516548" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-1024x508.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-300x149.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-768x381.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270-1536x762.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/27121530/image-270.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Investors Funnel $2.2B Into These 5 Real Estate ETFs In Anticipation Of Fed Rate Cuts

Jerome Powell's interest rate remarks Friday ignited a rally in stocks, bonds, and commodities, while the U.S. dollar plunged as traders solidified their bets on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">rate cuts</a>.
Financial markets responded positively to Fed chair Powell&#8217;s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he said the &#8216;&#8221;time has come <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/24/08/40529209/jerome-powell-time-has-come-for-interest-rate-cuts-cooling-in-labor-market-unmistakable">for policy to adjust.&#8221;</a>
The Fed chair said he is more confident the economy is on a sustainable path back to the 2% inflation target, allowing the Fed to finally shift its focus to labor market conditions.
&#8220;We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,&#8221; he said, adding the Fed has &#8220;ample room to respond&#8221; by adjusting its policy should further weakening in labor market conditions occur.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">7 Key ETFs React To Powell&#8217;s Jackson Hole Speech</h3>
A greenback gauge, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), tumbled by 0.7% at 11 a.m. ET., extending its weekly decline to 1.4% — the worst performance it has recorded this year.
Driven by expectations of lower interest rates and a weakening dollar, gold prices surged to a new all-time high of $2,530 per ounce following the speech, with the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) climbing by 1.1%. 
Wall Street initially rallied before paring back some gains as traders assess the economic outlook.
Small caps, instead, substantially outperformed large-cap indices. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) soared 2.9%, on track for its strongest session since July 16. 
Within sectors, real estate stocks rallied, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) up 1.8%, hitting the highest levels since September 2022. 
Interest-rate sensitive industries saw significant gains following Powell&#8217;s remarks, with homebuilders, regional banks and miners leading the market.
The SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) jumped 4.6%, while the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#NYSE">ITB</a>) climbed 3.2%, and the SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) advanced 1.7%.
Don't miss the opportunity to dominate in a volatile market at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/events/small-cap/global-small-cap-conference-2024/">Benzinga SmallCAP Conference </a>Oct. 9-10 at the Chicago Marriott Downtown Magnificent Mile. 
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Jerome Powell and Wall Street illustration. Photo: Federalreserve/Flickr Photo: Bylolo/Unsplash

Commodities

iShares Dow Jones US Homenstruction Index Fund

Powell's Rate Cut Signal Triggers Small-Cap Rally, Gold Makes Record Highs, Dollar Tumbles: 7 ETFs On The Move

The Bank of Japan&#8217;s sudden U-turn on policy has ignited strong reactions on Wall Street this week, with investors now eyeing significant interest rate cuts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">from the Federal Reserve.</a>
Bank of America&#8217;s chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, believes that Wall Street has effectively forced the Bank of Japan into the decision to halt rate hikes during periods of market turmoil.
In his latest &#8220;Flow Show&#8221; report, Hartnett analyzed the implications of one of the most volatile weeks in global markets since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. 
&#8220;Wall Street has now (painfully) stopped BoJ hikes&#8230; its next goal appears to be bossing the Fed into big rate cuts,&#8221; Hartnett wrote.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Big Cuts Are Needed To Avoid Hard Landing</h3>
Hartnett indicated that the elevated interest rates are beginning to take a toll on small businesses. He suggested that significant rate cuts are necessary to avoid a hard landing for the economy. 
Currently, the U.S. prime rate – which is the lowest interest rates at which small businesses can borrow – stands at 6.5% in real terms, the highest level this century, making borrowing costs particularly burdensome for the real economy.
Higher-for-longer real rates are gradually and decisively hurting the U.S. consumer and labor market, according to Hartnett. 
He stressed that global rate cuts are no longer a question of &#8220;if&#8221; or &#8220;when,&#8221; but rather a matter of whether the cuts will be effective. 
&#8220;Big cuts are needed to work,&#8221; he said.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40278776/as-nvidia-leads-magnificent-7-volatility-analyst-says-these-mega-caps-are-poised-to-outperform-s">As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There&#8217;s A Catch</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Soft Landing Contingent On Reactions To Lower Interest Rates</h3>
A soft landing for the economy, Hartnett suggested, would depend on whether lower interest rates in the second half of the year can reinvigorate consumer spending and business activity. 
He pointed to key indicators to monitor, such as housing market data and small business sentiment.
According to the analyst, a recovery in mortgage purchases, refinancing activity, and small business sentiment driven by lower interest rates would be a positive indicator.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Sell AI Stocks, Buy Laggards After The First Cut</h3>
Hartnett maintained his stance of &#8220;sell the first cut,&#8221; anticipating that leadership in AI and AI-derivative plays may struggle in the second half until earnings-per-share gains become more visible. 
He recommended that investors &#8220;buy assets strangled by 5% yields&#8221; that could benefit from a decrease in yields to 3-4%.
These assets include government bonds, REITs, small-cap stocks, and distressed emerging markets like Brazil, which could benefit from a weaker dollar. 
Exchange traded funds investing in these assets include the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWZ#NYSE">EWZ</a>)
He also highlighted potential opportunities in housing markets in countries like the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden, where floating mortgage rates could lead to a quicker transmission of lower rates into increased consumer confidence. 
Finally, Hartnett suggested that global retail stocks could present the best buying opportunity in the event of a &#8220;hard landing&#8221; and a negative payroll print in the coming months, as these stocks, much like REITs, have already priced in a recession.
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40278776/as-nvidia-leads-magnificent-7-volatility-analyst-says-these-mega-caps-are-poised-to-outperform-s">As Nvidia Leads Magnificent 7 Volatility, Analyst Says These Mega-Caps Are Poised To Outperform Small-Caps — But There&#8217;s A Catch</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Bonds

Global

Wall Street Shifts To 'Bossing The Fed Into Big Rate Cuts' After Bank Of Japan's Policy U-Turn, Analyst Says

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates have driven mortgage rates to their lowest levels in over a year Wednesday, positively impacting both new mortgage applications and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mortgages">refinancing of existing loans.</a>
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages — with conforming loan balances of $766,550 or less — fell significantly by 27 basis points to 6.55% for the week ending Aug. 2, marking the lowest rate since early May 2023
The decrease of 27 basis points from the rate of 6.82% on July 26 represents the largest weekly drop since July 2022 and reflects sizable reductions in Treasury yields.
The 30-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage costs, dropped 34 basis points during the week ending Aug. 2, reaching approximately 4.2%. 
&#8220;Mortgage rates decreased across the board last week&#8230;following dovish communication from the Federal Reserve and a weak jobs report, which added to increased concerns of an economy slowing more rapidly than expected,&#8221; said Joel Kan, the Mortgage Bankers Association&#8217;s vice president and deputy chief economist.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Drop To Levels Last Seen In May 2023</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-481621" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-1024x576.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-300x169.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-768x432.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15-1536x864.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/07085307/image-1-15.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Demand For Mortgages Jumps, Driven By Lower Interest Rates</h3>
Mortgage applications soared by 6.9% during the week ending Aug. 2, the sharpest increase in nearly two months and fully erasing the cumulative declines in applications from the two prior weeks. 
Applications for a loan to refinance a mortgage, which are more sensitive to weekly changes in interest rates, soared by nearly 16%.&nbsp;The MBA Mortgage Refinance index rose to the highest level in two years. 
Although the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target unchanged at its July meeting, it hinted at a possible rate cut in September. Market speculation around a Fed rate cut sharply increased as a result of a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
Commenting on the data, MBA chief economist Mike Fratantoni said: &#8220;The weakness in this report including the slower rate of wage growth and the higher unemployment rate certainly support such a cut, but the next inflation report needs to confirm that price growth is also slowing.
"The market is moving ahead of the Fed, bringing down longer-term rates including those for mortgages, which should lead to both more home purchases and a pickup in refinance activity," he said. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Shares of real estate companies surged in premarket trading on Wednesday, with the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) rising by 0.8%, following a 2% gain on Tuesday. The VNQ ETF is on course to reach levels not seen since January 2023.
Top premarket gainers were Howard Hughes Holding (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HHH#NYSE">HHH</a>), up 14.5%, Peakstone Realty Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKST#NYSE">PKST</a>), up 5.4%, Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPEN#NYSE">OPEN</a>), up 4.6% and Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPP#NYSE">HPP</a>), up 4.4%.
Mortgage-linked stocks as tracked by the iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>) are up over 2.5% in the premarket, after rallying 2.7% a day earlier. American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AHR#NYSE">AHR</a>) and Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CHCT#NYSE">CHCT</a>) led gains, up 9.4% and 2.9%, respectively. 
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/08/40172320/market-bets-on-feds-next-move-is-50-basis-point-cut-in-september-a-done-deal">Market Bets On Fed&#8217;s Next Move: Is 50-Basis-Point Cut In September A Done Deal?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

CHCT

OPEN

PKST

Mortgage Rates Fall To 15-Month Lows, Boost Homebuyer Demand As Federal Reserve Hints At Rate Cuts

The <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/covid-19">COVID-19 pandemic</a> accelerated a trend of workers preferring remote work to in-person office attendance. 
Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/commercial-real-estate">commercial real estate</a> across the U.S. has suffered as companies do not value expansive office spaces as they did before.
The Data: A <a href="https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1817971321277763942">post</a> on X relayed data from Arbor Data Science.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The commercial real estate crisis is spreading: US office vacancy rates in San Francisco reached 25.4% in June, the most among major American metros. This is followed by Houston and Seattle where office vacancy rates are 23.8% and 23.2%. The lowest vacancy rates are still a… <a href="https://t.co/TzeveqJV0N">pic.twitter.com/TzeveqJV0N</a>
&mdash; The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href="https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1817971321277763942?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2024</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The following U.S. metropolitan areas have the highest office vacancy rates.</figcaption></figure>
<ul>
<li>San Francisco, California — 25.4% </li>
<li>Houston, Texas — 23.8% </li>
<li>Seattle, Washington — 23.2% </li>
<li>Austin, Texas — 22.9% </li>
<li>Denver, Colorado — 22.1% </li>
</ul>
San Francisco&#8217;s Bay Area, which includes Silicon Valley, is the heart of technology companies in the U.S. A 25.4% vacancy rate is much higher than its 9.3% median vacancy <a href="https://www.normmiller.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Revisiting-the-Derivation-of-an-Equilibrium-Vacancy-Rate1.pdf">rate</a> from 1997 to 2013 (as found in a 2014 Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management article).
Meanwhile, the bottom five cities have weathered the storm comparatively well.
<ul>
<li>Miami, Florida — 12% </li>
<li>Boston, Massachusetts — 12.8% </li>
<li>Tampa, Florida — 13.3% </li>
<li>Charlotte, North Carolina — 14.9%</li>
<li>Philadelphia, Pennsylvania — 15.3% </li>
</ul>
The U.S. overall office space vacancy rate crossed 20% for the first time in 2024&#8217;s second quarter, <a href="https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-trends/q2-2024-preliminary-trend-announcement/">according</a> to Moody&#8217;s.
Market Implications: REITs with commercial real estate holdings have by and large struggled since the onset of the pandemic:
<ul>
<li>Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARE#NYSE">ARE</a>) is the largest office REIT by market cap. It owns properties in San Francisco and Boston, among other locations. Its share price is down over 18% in the past five years.</li>
<li>BXP Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BXP#NYSE">BXP</a>), formerly Boston Properties, owns buildings in Boston, San Francisco and Seattle. Its share price is down 45% in the past five years.</li>
<li>Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HPP#NYSE">HPP</a>) owns properties on the West Coast with exposure to San Francisco and Seattle. Its market capitalization is 83% less than it was five years ago.</li>
<li>Cousins Properties Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CUZ#NYSE">CUZ</a>) owns properties in Austin, Charlotte and Tampa, among other locations. Cousins shares are trading nearly 20% lower now than five years ago.</li>
<li>Kilroy Realty Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRC#NYSE">KRC</a>) owns office buildings in San Francisco and Austin. Its share are trading over 50% lower than five years ago.</li>
</ul>
Several exchange-traded funds (ETFs) track the real estate industry with some exposure to office REITs, including:
<ul>
<li>The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>)</li>
<li>The Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>)</li>
<li>The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>)</li>
</ul>
These funds have fared better than the individual office REITs due to their diversification.
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/04/38111796/why-fitch-thinks-the-coming-commercial-real-estate-crash-could-be-worse-than-2008">Why Fitch Thinks The Coming Commercial Real Estate Crash Could Be Worse Than 2008</a></li>
</ul>

Work From Home Has Hit Office Real Estate The Hardest In These 5 US Cities

The latest Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation report, unveiled Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, showed mixed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">results for market participants</a>.
What Happened: The headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index fell to 2.5% year-on-year in June, as expected. 
The core component remained steady at 2.6%, countering expectations of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/07/39983210/feds-preferred-inflation-measure-shows-mixed-readings-personal-income-spending-fa">a drop to 2.5%.</a>
The headline index&#8217;s decline to 2.5% marks the lowest point since February 2021, a level also seen in January and February 2024.
This data kept market-based probabilities for a September rate cut largely unaffected, with fed futures continuing to indicate a 100% chance of rate reductions, according to CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported lower-than-expected monthly increases in both personal spending and personal income last month. 
<ul>
<li>Personal income rose 0.2% in June, down from 0.4% in May and below the expected 0.4%. </li>
<li>Personal spending increased 0.3%, also down from 0.4% in May and missing the forecasted 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market reactions and pre-market ETF performances</h3>
U.S. equity futures maintained strong gains during premarket trading, despite a slight dip in large-cap index futures following the PCE report.
The U.S. dollar index remained broadly unchanged, while Treasury yields inched slightly lower, boosting bond-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in pre-market trading.
Interest-rate sensitive sectors, such as real estate, miners, and small caps, rose. Technology stocks also sharply rallied following declines in the previous two sessions.
Investors and traders are closely monitoring these exchange-traded funds, which showed notable pre-market gains:
<ol>
<li>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NYSE">SOXX</a>) up 2.3%</li>
<li>ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#NYSE">ARKK</a>) up 1.8%</li>
<li>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) up 1.6%</li>
<li>Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TAN#NYSE">TAN</a>) up 1.5%</li>
<li>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) up 1.3%</li>
<li>Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLC#NYSE">XLC</a>) up 1.2%</li>
<li>US Global JETS ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JETS#NYSE">JETS</a>) up 1.2%</li>
<li>VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) up 1.1%</li>
<li>Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) up 0.9%</li>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) up 0.5%</li>
</ol>
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39970069/investors-go-all-in-on-small-caps-pour-over-6-billion-into-russell-2000-etf-this-month-they-will">Investors Go All In On Small Caps, Pour Over $6 Billion Into Russell 2000 ETF This Month: They &#8216;Will Return To Larger-Cap Alternatives,&#8217; Veteran Analyst Says</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

ARKK

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

JETS

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Falls To 2.5%, Lowest Since February 2021, But Core Remains Sticky: 10 ETFs To Monitor Thursday

This week marks the beginning of the real estate earnings season, featuring reports from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and several housing industry firms, per Hoya Capital. After a challenging two-year period (including 50 percentage points of market underperformance), REITs are poised for potential gains following recent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Since mid-April, the Equity REIT Index has jumped by 14.0%, topping the S&amp;P 500&#39;s 12.8% gain. Small caps and rate-sensitive REITs have led this revival. The recent retreat in interest rates has instilled optimism in the REIT sector, helping an apparent &quot;REIT revival.&quot;
Even before this changing sentiment about rate shift, there were signs of stabilization in private real estate valuations during late spring and early summer. The signs of recovery were in areas of office leasing activity and a continued firming in residential rents (especially in limited-supply markets and sub-sectors), according to Hoya Capital.
Inside Industry Ranks &amp; Valuation
REIT and Equity Trust - Residential industry falls in the top 18% segment of 250 Zacks industries.&nbsp;The industry is trading at a forward P/E of 16.85X versus 18.99X recorded by the S&amp;P 500.
Real Estate - Development industry&#39;s rank falls into the top 40%. The industry has a forward P/E of 11.78X, again indicating undervaluation compared with the S&amp;P 500.
REIT and Equity Trust - Retail falls in the top 12% section of 250 Zacks industries. The industry has a forward P/E of 13.76X, which is another area of undervaluation.
REIT and Equity Trust - Other also boasts a good industry rank (top 39%). The industry trades with a forward P/E of 12.88X.
<h3>ETFs in Focus</h3>
With the Fed likely to cut interest rates as soon as in September, REITs are likely to rebound as this a rate-sensitive investing area. The segment offers a sturdy yield, which is a plus for income-seeking investors if rates fall.
Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield ETF (ARCA:RIET) charges 50 bps in fees but yields as high as 9.54% annually. No stock accounts for more than 3.05% of the fund.
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (ARCA:VNQ) charges 13 bps in fees and yields 3.97% annually. The fund, however, has high company-specific concentration risks.
Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (ARCA:XLRE) charges 9 bps in fees and yields 3.33% annually. The fund also has high company-specific concentration risks with Prologis making up more than 10% of the fund, followed by American Tower (9.20%), Equinix (7.43%) and Welltower (5.89%).
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2308198/what-lies-ahead-of-reit-etfs-this-earnings-season?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-etf_news_and_commentary-2308198">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

Earnings

RIET

What Lies Ahead of REIT ETFs This Earnings Season?

Mortgage rates are on a steady decline as investors have cemented expectations for upcoming reductions in the federal funds rate, yet mortgage demand continues to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/real-estate-investing">depict challenges among homebuyers. </a>
The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported Wednesday that the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) dropped by 5 basis points to 6.62% for the week ending July 19, 2024. 
This marks the lowest borrowing cost for home purchases since early February 2024.
Despite the decline in mortgage rates, long-term Treasury yields remained stable last week. The 30-year Treasury yield has held steady between 4.20% and 4.25% over the past week.
Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September hover at 100%, remaining unchanged from the previous week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bumpy demand for mortgages</h3>
Despite the decline in mortgage rates, mortgage demand has shown some setbacks. While the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit/24/07/39816656/fed-rate-cut-expectations-drop-mortgage-rates-to-4-month-lows-surge-in-new-applications-refinanc">previous week&#8217;s drop in mortgage rates </a>spurred a sharp rise in new mortgage and refinancing applications, these trends were more subdued last week.
Mortgage applications fell by 2.2% week-over-week, while the refinance index edged up by 0.3% to 614.9, hitting the highest level since mid-August 2022.
On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors reported a significant 5.4% decline in existing home sales for June. This drop is likely due to rising buyer apprehensions as median home prices reach new all-time highs. 
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, commented on the situation, stating, &#8220;The low supply of homes and high interest rates have depressed affordability to near-term lows. Because of the tight supply of homes available for sale, median prices continue to rise. We should not expect this dynamic to improve until mortgage rates drop and supply increases.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) was flat during the premarket trading session on Wednesday, following a 1% rise on Tuesday.
The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XHB#NYSE">XHB</a>) fell 0.5% at the time of this writing, while the VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MORT#NYSE">MORT</a>) rose 0.5%. 
The worst performers in the premarket among real estate stocks were: 
<ul>
<li>Gladstone Land Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LAND#NASDAQ">LAND</a>) down 3.96%.</li>
<li>Compass, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COMP#NYSE">COMP</a>) down 3.96%.</li>
<li>Service Properties Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SVC#NASDAQ">SVC</a>) down 3.47%.</li>
<li>Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPEN#NASDAQ">OPEN</a>) down 2.71%.</li>
<li>Office Properties Income Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPI#NASDAQ">OPI</a>) down 1.48%. </li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/24/07/39920377/us-home-sales-see-sharpest-monthly-decline-in-1-5-years-as-record-high-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sid">US Home Sales See Sharpest Monthly Decline In 1.5 Years As Record High Prices Keep Buyers On The Sideline</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

COMP

LAND

Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Point Since February As Investors Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts

Existing home sales in the United States plunged 5.4% in June 2024 from the previous month, marking the steepest monthly drop since November 2022. This decline is attributed to heightened buyer apprehension, as the median sales price reached a record high for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-invest-in-real-estate">the second consecutive month.</a>
In June 2024, sales totaled 3.89 million units, a decrease from 4.11 million in May, according to data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Year-over-year, sales also fell by 5.4%.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $426,900, an all-time high and an increase of 4.1% from $410,100 a year ago. 
Total housing inventory at the end of June was 1.32 million units, up 3.1% from May and 23.4% from a year ago (1.07 million). Unsold inventory stands at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.7 months in May and 3.1 months in June 2023.
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun commented, "We&#8217;re seeing a slow shift from a seller&#8217;s market to a buyer&#8217;s market."
 "Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers.&nbsp;More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis," the economist added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Home Sales Drop 5.4% In June</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="501" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23103342/image-37-1024x501.png" alt="" class="wp-image-451631" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23103342/image-37-1024x501.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23103342/image-37-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23103342/image-37-768x376.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23103342/image-37-1536x751.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/23103342/image-37.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Regional Performance</h3>
All four U.S. regions saw both sales declines and price gains.
<ul>
<li>In the Midwest, existing-home sales dropped 8% from the previous month to an annual rate of 920,000 in June, a 6.1% decrease from the prior year. The median price in the Midwest was $327,100, up 5.5% from June 2023.</li>
<li>In the South, existing-home sales fell 5.9% from May to an annual rate of 1.76 million in June, down 6.9% from a year earlier. The median price in the South was $373,000, a 1.7% increase from last year.</li>
<li>Existing-home sales in the West declined 2.6% in June to an annual rate of 740,000, matching the figure from a year ago. The median price in the West was $629,800, up 3.5% from June 2023.</li>
<li>In the Northeast, existing-home sales decreased 2.1% from May to an annual rate of 470,000 in June, a 6% decline from June 2023. The median price in the Northeast was $521,500, a significant 9.7% increase from a year earlier.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Buyer Activity And Mortgage Rates</h3>
Properties typically remained on the market for 22 days in June, down from 24 days in May but up from 18 days in June 2023, the monthly Realtors Confidence Index showed.
First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales in June, down from 31% in May but up from 27% in June 2023. NAR&#8217;s 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in November 2023 – reported the annual share of first-time buyers was 32%.
Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.77% as of July 18, down from 6.89% a week earlier and 6.78% a year ago.
All-cash sales made up 28% of transactions in June, unchanged from May and up from 26% a year ago. Individual investors or second home buyers, who constitute a significant portion of cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in June, the same as in May but down from 18% in June 2023.
Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 2% of sales in June, unchanged from the previous month and the prior year.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Real estate stocks, as tracked by the Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), inched 0.4% higher Tuesday, on track to close the session at the highest level since February 2023.
Leading the sector were Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPEN#NASDAQ">OPEN</a>), Compass, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COMP#NYSE">COMP</a>) and eXp World Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EXPI#NASDAQ">EXPI</a>), each recording gains between 3% and 3.5%.
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NXDT#NYSE">NXDT</a>), Office Properties Income Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPI#NASDAQ">OPI</a>) and Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARE#NYSE">ARE</a>) were the laggards, down 3.5%, 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively. 
Read Now:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39905739/veteran-wall-street-investor-downplays-recession-odds-current-bull-market-has-more-">Veteran Wall Street Investor Downplays Recession Odds: &#8216;Current Bull Market Has More Support From Earnings&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Unsplash.

EXPI

NXDT

US Home Sales See Sharpest Monthly Decline In 1.5 Years As Record High Prices Keep Buyers On The Sideline

Foreign investment in U.S. homes has dropped to its lowest in 15 years, as per a fresh report by the National Association of Realtors.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39482229/home-prices-reach-new-record-highs-yet-signs-of-normalization-emerge">Low supply and high prices</a> have scared many foreign investors away from U.S. real estate, marking the seventh consecutive yearly drop in sales for this cohort.
The U.S. Home Market Slump: Unusually high inflation has pushed mortgage rates up, forcing many homeowners to stay in their current homes, bringing the supply of houses down significantly.
In this context, people who might have been looking for a new home are incentivized to stick to their low mortgage rates instead of selling their home in exchange for a more expensive mortgage.
The fall home sales hit its worst point in 28 years during 2023; and 2024 is lining up to be even worse. Looking at completed sales up to April, at this rate, 2024 would come with a drop of almost 2% since the previous year.
The panorama could change if the Fed decides to drop interest rates in an upcoming meeting. During a Wednesday call, a Bank of America economist <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39819662">argued that the most likely rate cut will come in December</a>, against consensus from other colleagues who expect a drop by September.
Anticipation for an upcoming rate cut already caused a positive effect on the real estate market. On Wednesday, one report showed mortgages have come down to a four-month low last week, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/reit/24/07/39816656/fed-rate-cut-expectations-drop-mortgage-rates-to-4-month-lows-surge-in-new-applications-refinanc">with new applications up by almost 4%</a>.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Why Do Foreign Nationals Buy Houses In The U.S. And Why Are They Stopping?</h1>
The realtors report looked at two types of investor: foreign buyers who don't reside in the U.S. as well as visa holders who are not permanent immigrants, or new immigrants with less than two years in the country.
Foreign-born individuals with permanent U.S. residencies are not accounted for. For the groups examined, 45% of homes were purchased for use as a rental unit, vacation house, or both.
Yet the intended use of the homes varied greatly between the country of origin of the buyer. Forty-nine percent of Canadian buyers intend to use their homes for vacation, and only 16% as a permanent residency. For buyers from India, it was 6% for vacation and 66% for permanent residency.
Foreign investors might be lured by the U.S. real estate market as a way to diversify their foreign real estate investments in a market that has typically gone up with time.
Yet, the landscape for international buyers has been even worse than for U.S. buyers.&nbsp;
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against foreign currency in previous years, making it even more expensive for investors holding their capital in euros, Chinese yuan or Canadian dollars to purchase a U.S. home. 
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39812270">Jerome Powell&#8217;s Top Advisor Hints At Fed&#8217;s Potential Rate Cut Plans: &#8216;All Moving In The Right Direction&#8217;</a>
While at a slower rate, foreign buyers continued to purchase homes in the U.S., with California, Florida, Texas and Arizona as main destinations. Against some prime locations around the world, the price per square meter for residential properties in the U.S. remains very competitive.
The price per square meter for a home in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area in California is almost half that of Hong Kong. In Boulder, Colorado, a square meter costs half of that of Oslo, Norway, and a third of the average Canadian price.
In the period running from April 2023 to March 2024, there were only 54,300 U.S. homes sold to international buyers, the lowest it's been since the association began measuring the data point in 2009. This marks a whopping 36% decline since the previous year.
In dollars, this meant a 21% decrease, with purchases worth only $42 billion against $153 billion in 2017
But this year's drop is no exception. There have been year-over-year drops for the last seven periods, from a recent peak of 284,500 U.S. homes bought by foreigners in 2017.
Those who did buy a house in America did it for a higher price. The average sale reached $780,300, a 22% spike from the previous year.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On The Market</h1>
Foreign buyers accounted for only 1.3% of all U.S. home sales during the April 2023-March 2024 period, yet they represent a much more significant portion of the market in specific locations like Florida, Texas and California.
While the report analyzed a drop in foreign sales, most of its reasons are domestic, serving to better understand the state of the real estate market for homes in the U.S.
The drop in supply stemming from the rise in interest rates has affected U.S. buyers as much as foreigners.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/06/39204534/european-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-by-0-25-but-projects-inflation-above-target-well-into-">Upcoming cuts in interest rates across the globe, and specially in Europe</a> could soon reignite foreign interest in the U.S. market. This might be even more true if it falls in line with an increased supply of homes that could come if mortgage rates continue to drop.
There are several real estate companies focused on the residential sector that are part of the S&amp;P 500 index. These include Equity Residential (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQR#NYSE">EQR</a>), Essex Property Trust Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ESS#NYSE">ESS</a>), Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAA#NYSE">MAA</a>), AvalonBay Communities Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVB#NYSE">AVB</a>) and Invitation Homes Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INVH#NYSE">INVH</a>).
Most real estate ETFs are not pure-play residential, with the exception of iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/REZ#NYSE">REZ</a>). Others follow the U.S. real estate market more broadly but are still liable to be affected by swings in the residential home market. These include Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) and Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>) among the largest.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39718690">&#8216;Apocalyptic&#8217; Manhattan Real Estate Deals Keep Coming — Sector Mayhem Or Investment Opportunity?</a></li>
</ul>

Politics

INVH

Foreigners Don't Want Your US Home: Sales Drop To 15-Year Lows For International Buyers

The anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is starting to have a favorable impact on the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/mortgages">real estate mortgage market. </a>
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased by 13 basis points to 6.87% for the week ending July 12, 2024, down from 7% the prior week, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association Wednesday. 
This decline represents the most significant drop in borrowing costs in around four months and the lowest rate since early March. 
Fed Rate Cut Bets, Lower Treasury Yields Push Mortgage Rates Down
The reduction was largely propelled by rising expectations on Fed rate cuts and the fall in 30-year Treasury yields, a key indicator for long-term mortgage rates, which decreased by approximately 30 basis points month-to-date to 4.37%.
Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have surged to nearly 100%, up from a 60% likelihood a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Joel Kan, the MBA's vice president, said, &#8220;Mortgage rates declined last week, as recent signs of cooling inflation and the increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year pulled them lower.&#8221;
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082633/image-26-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-440604" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082633/image-26-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082633/image-26-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082633/image-26-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082633/image-26-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082633/image-26.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Rising Mortgage Demand
The 13 basis point reduction in mortgage rates has positively influenced demand, with applications for new mortgages and refinancing existing mortgages rising significantly last week. 
According to MBA data, mortgage applications in the U.S. jumped by 3.9% in the third week of July, recovering from declines in the previous two weeks to achieve the sharpest increase in a month.
Refinancing applications, which are particularly sensitive to weekly rate changes, increased by 15% from the previous week, reaching their highest level in two years.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="500" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082958/image-27-1024x500.png" alt="" class="wp-image-440610" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082958/image-27-1024x500.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082958/image-27-300x147.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082958/image-27-768x375.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082958/image-27-1536x750.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/17082958/image-27.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Market Reactions
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) traded 1.33% higher at the time of publication Wednesday, after closing 1% higher Tuesday. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>) was up 1.27%.
Top performers in the premarket were:
<ul>
<li>SL Green Realty Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLG#NYSE">SLG</a>) up 2.30%. </li>
<li>CubeSmart (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CUBE#NYSE">CUBE</a>) up 1.90%.</li>
<li>National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NSA#NYSE">NSA</a>) up 0.90%.</li>
<li>Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KW#NYSE">KW</a>) up 0.56%.</li>
<li>Alexandria Real Estate Equities (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARE#NYSE">ARE</a>) up 0.54%.</li>
<li>Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNO#NYSE">VNO</a>) up 0.47%. </li>
</ul>
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Photo: Shutterstock

CUBE

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drop Mortgage Rates To 4-Month Lows: Surge In New Applications, Refinance Demand

Fed Chair <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/jerome-powell">Jerome Powell</a> said Tuesday the commercial real estate sector will remain <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/commercial-real-estate">under stress for some time</a>.
"It is a risk that has been with us and will be with us for some time, probably for years," Powell told the Senate Banking Committee. "And banks need to be honestly assessing what their risk is."
Many real estate assets purchased before the Covid-19 pandemic with loans from banks and other financial institutions are now worth less than the loans.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/24/06/39169354/doom-and-gloom-in-office-space-real-estate-delinquency-data-tells-another-story">Doom And Gloom In Office Space Real Estate? Delinquency Data Tells Another Story</a>
As a result, many commercial real estate owners are selling their properties in distress, bringing about a new era of opportunity for real estate investors.
Take the Continental Center in New York City, for example. The 41-story skyscraper, located at 180 Maiden Lane in Manhattan's Financial District, sold <a href="https://commercialobserver.com/2024/07/clarion-mhp-sale-carlo-bellini-180-maiden-lane/">to</a> 99c, a real estate firm owned by Canadian biotech investor Carlo Bellini, for just $297 million.
The same building was purchased in 2015 for $470 million. Clarion Partners and MHP took out a $248 million loan from BlackRock Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>) and <a href="https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2024/01/09/financial-district-office-heads-to-distress-sale/">refinanced</a> the debt in 2020 with a $372 million loan led by ING Groep NV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ING#NYSE">ING</a>).
Clarion and MHP reportedly invested $175 million in renovations, putting their entire investment north of $645 million. They reportedly sold the property quickly to avoid foreclosure.
Clarion didn't reply to a request for comments.
"Manhattan&#8217;s office meltdown has gone from concerning to apocalyptic with little end in sight…" Triple Net Investor, an influencer, <a href="https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/1810840957333688701">wrote</a> on X.
For office buildings, the average sale prices per square foot dropped 66% between June 2023 and late May.
The Continental Center, built in 1983, is currently only occupied at 68%, dropping from 71% in January. This is almost three times the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate in New York City, which in March was 12.8% according to the comptroller's office.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/39621351">Mortgage Applications Fall As Rates Climb Back Above 7%</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Is Commercial Real Estate Such A Mess?</h3>
"The seismic, pandemic-driven shift toward remote work has substantially pushed down demand for office space, approximately doubling the vacancy rate," writes a comptroller <a href="https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/spotlight-new-york-citys-office-market/#:~:text=Vacancy%20rates%20have%20roughly%20doubled,46%25%20of%20office%20space%20citywide.">report</a>.
New York's commercial real estate vacancy rate was a mere 6.4% in early 2020 &#8212; before the pandemic unfolded.
Pandemic disruptions were followed by decades-high interest rates which had a slashing effect on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-reits">REITs</a>.
The trend isn&#8217;t exclusive to New York. 
Earlier this year, the U.S. vacancy rate for commercial real estate <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/01/36707378/office-space-hits-highest-vacancy-rate-since-1979-heres-why-converting-it-to-residential-space-isnt">reached its highest levels since 1979</a>, at about 20%. By May, the rate had dropped to 17.8% as per a CommercialEdge <a href="https://www.commercialedge.com/blog/national-office-report/">report</a>.
A recent report by real estate firm Colliers found last month that there was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/06/39461452/manhattan-office-market-has-a-breakout-month-with-a-70-surge-in-leasing-activity">a 70% pick-up in leasing activity in New York City</a> as compared to last year. While this metric brings optimism for real estate investors, CommercialEdge argues that the remote and hybrid work trends are here to stay, and vacancies will likely remain flat across the country.
ETFs following the real estate sector haven&#8217;t performed well as of late. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNQ#NYSE">VNQ</a>), the biggest one by assets under management, was up 0.2% on Wednesday, having lost 3.8% in the past six months.
Schwab US REIT ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHH#NYSE">SCHH</a>) shows a similar trajectory, up 0.3% on Wednesday at the time of this writing and down 2.7% since in the past six months.
Residential real estate continues to struggle from high interest rates, with the affordability of buying a home <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/07/39614880/now-owning-a-house-in-us-is-more-challenging-than-ever-as-affordability-drops-to-">reaching its lowest level in 17 years last week</a>.
Now Read:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39482229/home-prices-reach-new-record-highs-yet-signs-of-normalization-emerge">Home Prices Reach New Record Highs, Yet &#8216;Signs Of Normalization&#8217; Emerge</a></li>
</ul>
Manhattan Skyline, including the Continental Center on the left, by Szilas on Wikimedia Commons.

Asset Sales

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Home Sellers, Home Buyers, And Brokers Getting Used To The 'New Normal' Old Normal 6-7% Mortgages?

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REITs Are Suffering, Time To Switch Emotions Off And Act Rationally

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