Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ: QQQ)

最新ニュース Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ)

Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1

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To maintain the correspondence between the composition and weights of the securities in the trust (the securities) and the stocks in the NASDAQ-100 Index, the adviser adjusts the securities from time to time to conform to periodic changes in the identity and/or relative weights of index securities. The composition and weighting of the securities portion of a portfolio deposit are also adjusted to conform to changes in the index.

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８月３日（水）午前８時３０分（米国東部時間）に公表される消費者物価指数（CPI）速報に先駆け、主要指数先物は神経質な値動きを示している。債券利回りは消費者物価指数発表前に低下している。今回の報告が価格圧力の緩和が続いていることを確認した場合、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）は利上げを余儀なくされる可能性がある。経済学者やストラテジストは、FRB総裁のジェローム・パウエル氏が今月末に予定されている＜ジャクソンホール・シンポジウム＞で、利上げ見通しについてさらに明確な見解を示すと予想している。

ウォール・ストリート　主要先物指数が反応

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先週8月2日に終了した週は、テクノロジースペースが下落し、テクノロジー選択セレクトセクターSPDRファンド（NYSE：XLK）が5%以上下げ、大型株企業の業績を測るS&amp;P500指数を下回った。今週、テック市場を駆りたてた要因と、これらの株が近期および中期に向けて向かっている方向をまとめた。

大型企業株　S&amp;P500株をSPDRファンドが下回る

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本日の注目ポイントは以下の通りです。投機的なセンチメント以下の点に注目：この記事は個別の銘柄ではなく、大局についてのものである。TSLA株のチャートはさまざまな視点について示すために使用されている。

ヒューマロイドロボットの競争激化　市場は投機的に

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ProShares Nasdaq-100 Dorsey Wright Momentum ETF

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Benzinga Market Summary: Indexes Rise Ahead Of Trump Inauguration, Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Law, China Meets 2024 GDP Growth Target

Risk appetite surged on Wall Street at the end of the week, with investors ramping up stock purchases ahead of Monday's market closure for Martin Luther King Day, which is also when Donald Trump will be sworn in as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">the 47th U.S. president.</a>
All major indices posted robust gains in midday trading, setting up for their strongest weekly performance since early November. Broad-based buying lifted every sector into the green, underscoring the strength of the rally.
Adding to the positive mood, the Israeli Security Cabinet approved a ceasefire deal with Hamas <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43055426/oil-dips-as-israeli-security-cabinet-approves-gaza-ceasefire-yet-experts-warn-red-sea-risks-persist">in Gaza</a>, leaving final government approval as the last step before the agreement takes effect on Sunday.
Chipmaker Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) soared 8.9%, marking its biggest single-day jump since August 2024. The rally was fueled by rumors that the company could be a takeover target. 
Treasury yields edged higher but remained on track for steep weekly declines, following a softer-than-expected December inflation report that eased concerns over aggressive Federal Reserve policy.
The U.S. dollar rose 0.3% on Friday but is still slightly lower for the week, potentially snapping a six-week winning streak.
Gold prices steadied after Thursday's strong rally, while oil prices extended their decline as ceasefire efforts gained traction.
Cryptocurrency sentiment surged, driven by speculation that the incoming Trump administration could announce the creation of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43062518/2025-to-see-dogecoin-etf-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-microstrategy-of-ethereum-predicts-crypto-hedge-fund">a Bitcoin Reserve Fund.</a> Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was up 5% to over $105,000. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,483.46</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,013.18</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,641.72</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,279.34</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:45 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011525&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 1.2% to $598.98.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 1.1% to $436.12.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rallied 1.8% to $522.24.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 0.7% to $226.01.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 1.8%; the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, down 0.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Truist Financial Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TFC#NYSE">TFC</a>) rallied nearly 5% in reaction to stronger-than-expected quarterly results. </li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings included Schlumberger N.V. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLB#NYSE">SLB</a>), up 7.9%; Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAST#NASDAQ">FAST</a>), up 0.64%; State Street Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STT#NYSE">STT</a>), down 3%; Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HBAN#NASDAQ">HBAN</a>), up 0.39%; Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RF#NYSE">RF</a>), down 0.86% and Citizens Financial Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CFG#NYSE">CFG</a>), up 1.8%.</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43062563/imf-lifts-us-growth-outlook-betting-markets-raise-odds-on-trump-led-economic-boom">IMF Lifts US Growth Outlook, Betting Markets Raise Odds On Trump-Led Economic Boom</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

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Wall Street Roars Ahead Of Trump's Inauguration, Intel Rallies, Bitcoin Tops $105,000: What's Driving Markets Friday?

<ul>
<li>INTC</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>DJT</li>
<li>MSTR</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>META</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>RIVN</li>
<li>AMD</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

MSTR

RIVN

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of January 17, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

WIIM

Major indexes are higher ahead of the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Trump.

U.S. stock futures were trading higher on Friday morning, recovering from the previous day&#8217;s losses. Futures across all major indices showed gains.
Although the S&amp;P 500 ended its winning streak on Thursday, a strong Friday session could potentially result in the best weekly performance for the index since the November election.
The 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.60% and the two-year note was at 4.23%. Market expectations for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting outcome on Jan. 31 suggest a high probability of 97.3% that the central bank will maintain interest rates at their current level, <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">according to</a> CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Futures</td>
<td>Change (+/-)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>0.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>0.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>-0.19%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Major stock market ETFs, such as the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), were trading higher in pre-market trading on Friday. SPY saw a 0.35% increase to $593.70, while QQQ climbed 0.44% to $515.33, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stocks closed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43049530/sp-500-ends-three-session-win-streak-amid-decline-in-apple-nvidia-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">lower </a>on Thursday, ending a three-day winning streak. The tech sector weighed heavily on the market, with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) shares declining significantly.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) posted positive earnings reports. Whereas, retail sales growth slowed in December, and jobless claims rose slightly, potentially dampening investor sentiment.
While most sectors finished the day in positive territory, including utilities, real estate, and industrials, the technology and communication services sectors dragged down the overall market.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
<td>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq Composite</td>
<td>-0.89%</td>
<td>19.338.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>-0.21%</td>
<td>5,937.34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>-0.16%</td>
<td>43,153.13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>0.15%</td>
<td>2,266.79</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Insights From Analysts
As Donald Trump moves to the White House on Monday, Dec. 20, Robin Brooks, the ex-Goldman Sachs FX Strategist and a senior fellow at Brookings Institution <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/china-tariffs-and-trump-2-0/">said</a> the tariff confrontation between the U.S. and China could prove detrimental to the S&amp;P 500.
China's most &#8220;potent weapon&#8221; is the depreciation of the yuan as an offset to additional U.S. tariffs. This could negatively impact the U.S. economy, potentially tightening financial conditions and weighing on the S&amp;P 500, Brooks said in his research note.
Even though the new administration may seek to mitigate this by implementing targeted tariffs or a phased-in, conditional universal tariff, he said, &#8220;Given how little is priced, it seems likely that market volatility will rise in the months ahead.&#8221;
Highlighting the corporate earnings in 2025, Callie Cox, the chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said in an X post &#8220;All 11 sectors are expected to report growing profits, which would be the first time that&#8217;s happened since 2018.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Wall Street expects the perfect year from S&amp;P 500 companies in 2025. All 11 sectors are expected to report growing profits, which would be the first time that&#39;s happened since 2018. Think about that when you listen to management comments this season. <a href="https://t.co/HinFA3zu88">pic.twitter.com/HinFA3zu88</a>
&mdash; Callie Cox (@callieabost) <a href="https://twitter.com/callieabost/status/1880016203093332149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Carson Research's report <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43049404/bull-markets-last-for-79-years-on-average-but-third-year-returns-can-be-weak-says-this-research-firm">analyzing</a> bull markets over the past 50 years shows that the 1987 and 2002 bull markets spanned five years each, while the 1974 bull market extended for 6.2 years.
Notably, the 2009 bull market lasted for 11 years, the longest in recent times. Additionally, the 1988 bull market held a record at 12.3 years.
On average, these five bull markets over the last 50 years were 7.9 years long.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Bull Markets Over The Last 50 Years</td>
<td>Total Duration (In Years)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>August 1982-1987</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>October 2002-2007</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>September 1974 to November 1980</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>February 2009-2020</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>January 1988 to March 2000</td>
<td>12.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td>7.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
"Looking at the previous 11 bull markets, we found the average bull lasted more than five years, suggesting even though this bull market is mighty, it could have plenty of room left to run," the note stated.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>
Upcoming Economic Data
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Housing Starts and Building Permits for December will be announced at 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December is slated to release at 9:15 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>
Stocks In Focus:
<ul>
<li>Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FAST#NASDAQ">FAST</a>) was up 0.17% in premarket on Friday as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings at 48 cents per share on revenue of $1.84 billion before the opening bell before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>State Street Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STT#NYSE">STT</a>) was up 0.01% ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $2.43 per share on revenue of $3.32 billion.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Schlumberger NV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLB#NYSE">SLB</a>) was up 0.51% in premarket on Friday as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 90 cents per share on revenue of $9.18 billion before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>JB Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBHT#NASDAQ">JBHT</a>) dropped 10.85% after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings for its fourth quarter on Thursday.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Versus Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VS#NASDAQ">VS</a>) was up 83.85% as it announced its expansion into Brazil to leverage its gamification platform to transform audience engagement across industries.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>iSpecimen Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISPC#NASDAQ">ISPC</a>), a leading online biospecimen marketplace, was up 44.56% as it secured the critical hMPV virus specimens as cases surged in China.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Qorvo Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QRVO#NASDAQ">QRVO</a>) was up 7.09% as the activist investor Starboard Value LP reportedly acquired a 7.7% stake worth approximately $500 million in the struggling semiconductor manufacturer for potential operational changes.</li>
</ul>
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.32% to hover around $78.10 per barrel.
The gold spot index was down by 0.77% to $2,729.99 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.13% at 109.104 level.
Most Asian markets closed lower on Friday including Australia&#8217;s ASX 200, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225, and South Korea&#8217;s Kospi index. On the other hand, Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng and China&#8217;s CSI 300 index advanced. European markets were trading higher.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43027048/blackrock-generates-industry-leading-etf-inflows-of-390-billion-in-2024-here-are-five-ishares-etfs-that-investors-should-look-out-for">BlackRock Generates Industry-Leading ETF Inflows Of $390 Billion In 2024: Here Are Five iShares ETFs That Investors Should Look Out For</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

ISPC

JBHT

QRVO

US Stocks Likely To Open Higher Ahead of Trump's Inaugration: All 11 Sectors To Report Growing Profits In 2025, Says Analyst

A bull market has lasted for 7.9 years on average over the last <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/24/12/42430296/carson-researchs-50-year-study-suggests-that-the-26-months-old-bull-market-is-far-from-over">50 years</a>, according to data highlighted by Carson Research in their investment research's outlook for 2025.
What Happened: Carson Research&#8217;s report analyzing bull markets over the past 50 years shows that the 1987 and 2002 bull markets spanned five years each, while the 1974 bull market extended for 6.2 years.
Notably, the 2009 bull market lasted for 11 years, the longest in recent times. Additionally, the 1988 bull market held a record at 12.3 years.
On average, these five bull markets over the last 50 years were 7.9 years long.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Bull Markets Over The Last 50 Years</td>
<td>Total Duration (In Years)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>August 1982-1987</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>October 2002-2007 </td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>September 1974 to November 1980</td>
<td>6.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>February 2009-2020</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>January 1988 to March 2000</td>
<td>12.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Average</td>
<td>7.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
&#8220;Looking at the previous 11 bull markets, we found the average bull lasted more than five years, suggesting even though this bull market is mighty, it could have plenty of room left to run,&#8221; the note stated.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43027048/blackrock-generates-industry-leading-etf-inflows-of-390-billion-in-2024-here-are-five-ishares-etfs-that-investors-should-look-out-for">Bond Rally Drives Stock Market, Taiwan Semi Results Show AI Demand, Manipulators Having A Heyday With Quantum Computing</a>
Why It Matters: However, despite highlighting these statistics, the note added, &#8220;Bullishness is more pervasive now and we could see more volatility in 2025.&#8221;
According to Carson Research, two red flags for the stock market arise historically, the first is that 2025 is the third year of a bull market, and the second is that the valuations are stretched.
An analysis of the eight bull markets since 1950 that reached their third year revealed an average gain of only 2.1%.
On a concluding note the &#8216;Animal Spirits&#8217; report added, &#8220;While we remain overweight equities, we are looking to potentially add excess returns by investing in factors like low volatility and momentum within equities, and actively managed strategies on the fixed income side.&#8221;
Price Action: The exchange-traded fund tracking the S&amp;P 500 index, SPY, advanced 25.27% over a year, whereas, QQQ, tracking the Nasdaq 100 rose 26% in the same period. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index/ETF</td>
<td>Six Months</td>
<td>One Year</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>)</td>
<td>6.23%</td>
<td>25.27%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)</td>
<td>6.50%</td>
<td>26.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)</td>
<td>4.77%</td>
<td>15.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>)</td>
<td>1.01%</td>
<td>18.48%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/01/43012824/billionaire-investor-who-predicted-the-dot-com-crash-25-years-ago-warns-of-another-market-storm-brew">Billionaire Investor Who Predicted The Dot-Com Crash 25 Years Ago Warns Of Another Market Storm Brewing In The US</a></li>
</ul>
Image generated using AI tools.

Bull Markets Last For 7.9 Years On Average But Third-Year Returns Can Be Weak, Says This Research Firm

Wall Street paused for a breather on Thursday, following Wednesday's big rally sparked by a softer-than-predicted December inflation report that fueled speculation on the Federal Reserve delivering interest rate <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43003047/stocks-rise-on-core-inflation-slowdown-banks-rally-after-strong-q4-earnings-treasury-yields-plummet">cuts during the year. </a>
By midday, stocks were little changed as attention shifted to the next major event: Donald Trump's inauguration as 47th U.S. president on Monday.
On the data front, December retail sales rose 0.4% from the previous month, a slower pace than November's 0.8% increase and below expectations of 0.6%. Jobless claims climbed by 16,000 to 217,000, slightly higher than <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43027744/retail-sales-slow-jobless-claims-rise-is-us-consumer-loosing-steam">the projected 210,000. </a>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43020430/cathie-wood-sounds-alarm-over-inflation-pressures-and-consumer-woes-peter-schiff-flags-oil-spike-what-economists-are-saying">Cathie Wood Says Inflation Worries Dampen Expectations, Schiff Singles Out Wall Street For Swallowing Narrative Even As Prices Soar</a>
The weaker data sent Treasury yields lower, with the 10-year yield slipping four basis points to 4.61%, extending the previous day's 14-basis-point decline.
Falling yields helped gold climb 0.9% to $2,970 per ounce, reaching a two-month high as investors moved toward safe-haven assets. 
Semiconductor stocks stood out the best-performing industry, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) gaining 1.8%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) jumped more than 5% after delivering strong quarterly earnings, lifting the broader chip industry. Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>) and ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASML#NASDAQ">ASML</a>) advanced 7% and 6%, respectively.
Oil prices pulled back 2.6%, giving up part of Wednesday's 4% gain. Traders speculated that Trump's policies could ease sanctions on Russian energy exports as part of a broader effort to negotiate peace in Ukraine. 
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) edged down 1% to $99,000, following a slight pullback across cryptocurrency markets.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,958.43</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,255.53</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,264.04</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,239.38</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated 12:40 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011525&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) remained unchanged at $593.10.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;flattened at $432.18.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) was unchanged at $516.54.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) inched 0.1% to $224.31.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, up 2.1%; the&nbsp;Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) lagged, down 0.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) fell 2% following quarterly earnings. Peer Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>) rose 2.7%.</li>
<li>Other stocks reacting to earnings were UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>), down 4.7%, Infosys Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INFY#NYSE">INFY</a>), down 5.2%, PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PNC#NYSE">PNC</a>), down 2%, U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USB#NYSE">USB</a>), down 5.3%, M&amp;T Bank Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MTB#NYSE">MTB</a>), down 2.8%, First Horizon Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FHN#NYSE">FHN</a>). </li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) fell by 3.6% after the EV giant announced reduced selling prices on its Cybertruck, in a strategy to revive demand. </li>
<li>Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) dropped 3% after the European Commission's competition chief confirmed that the investigation into the company under the Digital Markets Act will move forward as scheduled, with enforcement anticipated by March 2024.</li>
</ul>
Check Out: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/25/01/43036258/polar-vortex-brings-winters-coldest-air-for-trumps-inauguration-day-what-it-means-for-utilities-retailers-energy-stocks">Polar Vortex Brings Winter&#8217;s Coldest Air For Trump&#8217;s Inauguration Day: What It Means For Utilities, Retailers, Energy Stocks</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

Treasuries

AMAT

ASML

INFY

TSX:XL

Stocks Pause, Chipmakers Rise, Gold Hits 2-Month Highs: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

U.S. stock futures were mixed on Thursday following Wednesday&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43021827/dow-jumps-700-points-following-inflation-data-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">rally</a>. Futures of the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones were higher, whereas the gauge of small-cap stocks Russell 2000 was trading lower in premarket trade.
Traders responded to better-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday as most stocks rallied. The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November's 2.7%, matching economist forecasts.
The 10-year Treasury note yielded 4.66%, while the two-year note yielded 4.28%. The CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a> indicated a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting on Jan. 31, 2025.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Futures</td>
<td>Change (+/-)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>0.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>0.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>-0.19%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) both experienced positive premarket trading on Thursday. SPY rose 0.35% to $594.86, and QQQ climbed 0.45% to $519.01, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday, experiencing their largest single-day <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43021827/dow-jumps-700-points-following-inflation-data-greed-index-remains-in-fear-zone">gain</a> since Nov. 6, 2024.
Inflation data released on Wednesday showed a slight uptick in consumer prices in December, matching economists&#8217; expectations. However, the monthly increase was the largest since March.
Several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), and Citigroup Inc.(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>) reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, with Citigroup also announcing a significant share buyback program.
Most sectors within the S&amp;P 500 experienced gains, particularly consumer discretionary, communication services, and financial stocks. Conversely, consumer staples stocks bucked the trend and closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed with a substantial gain of around 703 points. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also recorded significant increases.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
<td>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq Composite</td>
<td>2.45%</td>
<td>19,511.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>1.83%</td>
<td>5,949.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>1.65%</td>
<td>43,221.55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1.99%</td>
<td>2,263.29</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Insights From Analysts
After Wednesday&#8217;s rally, Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning said in an X post that about one-third of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s composition was concentrated in the &#8216;Magnificent Seven&#8217; stocks. According to a chart shared by him the concentration in these stocks rose to 33.5% from 28% a year ago.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Over a third of the S&amp;P 500 is now concentrated in the &quot;Magnificent Seven&quot; stocks, up from a fifth of the index two years ago. Video: <a href="https://t.co/CRei7RqnLO">https://t.co/CRei7RqnLO</a> <a href="https://t.co/P69ATuGRHv">pic.twitter.com/P69ATuGRHv</a>
&mdash; Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) <a href="https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1879733848822403087?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 16, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Talking about inflation, Collin Martin, director, of fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research said, &#8220;CPI was a step in the right direction, but we&#8217;ll need to see more reports like this for evidence that the disinflationary trend has resumed.&#8221;
At the same time, Liz Ann Sonders, the chief investment strategist, at Charles Schwab highlighted that the spread between S&amp;P 500's forward earnings yield and 10-year Treasury yield has reached a new 23-year low.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Spread between S&amp;P 500's forward earnings yield and 10y Treasury yield has reached new 23-year low <a href="https://t.co/SxoQO7TU9K">pic.twitter.com/SxoQO7TU9K</a>
&mdash; Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) <a href="https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1876605073117122574?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 7, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
According to RMB Capital, the U.S. consumer remained resilient while U.S. government spending continued unchecked despite sticky inflation and higher interest rates.
&#8220;The incoming administration appears focused on the challenging task of bolstering economic growth while at the same time reducing the deficit. The most critical element of this endeavor will be curtailing the deficit while keeping longer-term yields contained, so as not to disrupt economic expansion,&#8221; it added.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 
Upcoming Economic Data
<ul>
<li>On Thursday at 8:30 a.m., ET initial jobless claims data for the week ending Jan. 11 will be released.</li>
<li>December&#8217;s U.S. Retail Sales figures will be announced.</li>
<li>The Import Price Index for December will be published.</li>
<li>The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for January will be released.</li>
<li>At 10:00 a.m., ET, the business inventories data for November will be released.</li>
<li>The Home Builder Confidence Index for January will be published.</li>
<li>On Friday, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Housing Starts and Building Permits data for December will be released.</li>
<li>At 9:15 a.m., ET, the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization figures for December will be announced.</li>
</ul>
Stocks In Focus:
<ul>
<li>Bank of America Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) was up 0.38% in premarket on Thursday as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of 77 cents per share on revenue of $25.19 billion before the opening bell.</li>
<li>Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>) was up 1.49% ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $1.70 per share on revenue of $15.03 billion.</li>
<li>UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) was up 0.4% as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of $6.72 per share on revenue of $101.76 billion before the opening bell.</li>
<li>Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) was up 4.83% after it beat the fourth quarter revenue and EPS estimate. Its top client Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) was also up 2.04%.</li>
<li>Synovus Financial Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SNV#NYSE">SNV</a>) was up 0.46% after reporting upbeat fourth-quarter financial results on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Powell Max Ltd (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PMAX#NASDAQ">PMAX</a>) was up 84.66% as it is targeting firms with between $1 million and $5 million in revenue to expand into the Hong Kong and Asian financial communications market.</li>
<li>Douyu International Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DOYU#NASDAQ">DOYU</a>) was up 23.76% after naming Simin Ren as co-CEO and announced a special cash dividend of $9.94/ADS.</li>
<li>BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBAI#NYSE">BBAI</a>) was up 14.45% as it appointed Kevin McAleenan as CEO and a member of the company&#8217;s board, effective as of Wednesday. McAleenan will replace Mandy Long, who is transitioning to an advisory role.</li>
</ul>
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.30% to hover around $78.47 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 0.71% to $2,737.06 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down 0.01% at 109.083 level.
Asian markets closed higher on Thursday as Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng, India&#8217;s S&amp;P BSE Sensex, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Australia&#8217;s ASX 200, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 and South Korea&#8217;s Kospi index rose. European markets were also trading higher.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43021065/cash-app-parent-block-inc-eyes-395-upside-bofa-believes-us-centric-re-acceleration-story-will-drive-the-stock">Jack Dorsey&#8217;s Block Eyes Over 39% Upside: BofA Says US-Centric Re-Acceleration Story Will Drive The Stock</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

Analyst Ratings

BBAI

DOYU

PMAX

US Stocks Could Open Higher After Big Banks Report Strong Earnings: Mag 7 Now Account For A Third Of S&P 500's Market Capitalization, Raising Alarms

Consumer sentiment faces renewed pressure as inflation expectations hit 3.3% for both short and long-term outlooks, despite December&#8217;s core inflation showing signs of moderation at 3.2% year-over-year, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk">below the expected 3.3%</a>.
&#8220;The consumer is worried about both short-term inflation expectations over the next year and long-term inflation expectations over the next 3 to 5 years, with both popping to 3.3%,&#8221; said Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, highlighting the impact on consumer expectations.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Inflation rises to 3.3% for both short- and long-term outlooks. Thanks to current economic conditions, consumer sentiment has slightly rebounded, but inflation concerns dampen expectations. <a href="https://twitter.com/CathieDWood?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CathieDWood</a> explores the current macroeconomic state in the first &quot;In The Know&quot; of 2025.
&mdash; ARK Invest (@ARKInvest) <a href="https://twitter.com/ARKInvest/status/1879585687244243400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November&#8217;s 2.7%, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest rate since July. Energy costs played a significant role, with the index climbing 2.6% and accounting for over 40% of December&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk">monthly price increases</a>.
Peter Schiff, Chief Economist at Europac, cautioned about underlying economic pressures, noting that &#8220;the CRB jumped another 1.6%, reaching a new 17-year high, up 21% in the past four months, while oil spiked almost 4%, closing at $80.41.&#8221;
The CRB Commodity Index, currently at 370.7, reached an all-time high of 470.17 in July 2008. This index tracks the price movement of 19 commodities, including aluminum, cocoa, coffee, copper, and more, providing a broad representation of commodity sectors.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">On the day Wall Street celebrated a &quot;benign&quot; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/inflation?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#inflation</a> report, the CRB jumped another 1.6%, hitting a new 17-year high, up 21% in the past four months, while oil spiked almost 4%, closing at $80.41, a seven-month high. Wall Street believes inflation is low as prices are soaring.
&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1879650691595260249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43019359/bitcoin-taps-100k-ethereum-dogecoin-rally-on-positive-inflation-data-trumps-pro-crypto-moves-analyst">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Rally On Positive Inflation Data, Trump&#8217;s Pro-Crypto Moves: Analyst Projects BTC Could Top $200K Range In 2025</a>
Financial markets responded positively to the mixed data, with Treasury yields falling significantly. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, observed &#8220;a significant, across-the-board move down in yields today in the advanced world,&#8221; attributing it to better-than-expected U.S. inflation data.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">A significant, across-the-board move down in yields today in the advanced world. It was driven by traders/investors' reaction to better-than-expected inflation data in the US , and with the UK outpacing others given its own inflation data release.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/economy?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#economy</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/markets?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#markets</a> <a href="https://t.co/jI8mor6T6G">pic.twitter.com/jI8mor6T6G</a>
&mdash; Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) <a href="https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1879647124532699554?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 15, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
However, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers raised concerns about fiscal stability, pointing out that &#8220;the 5 year 5 year US Treasury yield has hit 5 percent even as the real yield for the same horizon is above 2.6 percent,&#8221; suggesting worries about future budget deficits.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The 5 year 5 year US Treasury yield has just hit 5 percent even as the real yield for the same horizon is above 2.6 percent.  This confirms concerns about looming budget deficits and a rising neutral rate.
&mdash; Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) <a href="https://twitter.com/LHSummers/status/1879225916922175630?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rallied 1.82%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) gained 2.30%. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) led sector gains, rising 2.55% as major banks reported strong fourth-quarter earnings.
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Image Via Shutterstock 
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Cathie Wood Says Inflation Worries Dampen Expectations, Schiff Singles Out Wall Street For Swallowing Narrative Even As Prices Soar

Economic activity expanded slightly to moderately across the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 12 districts during late November and December, yet concerns over looming changes to U.S. immigration and tariff policies cast a shadow on the future, according to the Fed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Beige Book released Wednesday. </a>
The latest Fed Beige Book report highlighted moderate growth in consumer spending, strong holiday sales and rising wages.
According to anecdotal economic insights from businesses and other contacts across the country, several Fed districts showed potential economic headwinds tied to expected policy shifts under President-elect Donald Trump.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Expected Tariffs, Immigration Policies Shape Business Sentiment</h3>
Businesses are increasingly wary of the Trump administration&#8217;s plans to tighten immigration rules and impose steep tariffs. Trump has floated the idea of raising tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 60% and applying 10% universal tariffs on imports from other nations.
The manufacturing sector appears particularly vulnerable, with contacts reporting efforts to stockpile raw materials in anticipation of higher tariffs.
Additionally, some businesses fear that restrictions on immigration could exacerbate labor shortages, especially in industries like construction and agriculture.
Business leaders across industries within the New York Fed District &#8220;expressed concern that potential import tariffs would push up prices,&#8221; the Beige Book stated.
In the Richmond Fed District, firms from various sectors expressed concerns and uncertainties about tariffs, port worker strikes and overall economic conditions heading into the new year.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wage Growth Picks Up, Inflationary Pressures Remain Modest</h3>
The labor market showed signs of strength, with wage growth accelerating to a moderate pace across most districts. Yet businesses reported growing uncertainty about future staffing needs, especially in light of potential policy changes.
Prices rose modestly overall, with businesses reporting a mix of flat, moderate or even declining selling prices in certain sectors like retail and manufacturing.
Input costs, particularly for health insurance and fuel, continued to climb, and some contacts predicted that higher tariffs would contribute to broader inflation in 2025.
While inflationary pressures remain contained for now, many businesses are bracing for price hikes if the new tariffs go into effect.
The agricultural sector struggled under weak farm incomes and adverse weather conditions. The spread of avian flu further tightened egg supplies, leading to a spike in prices. Energy activity, meanwhile, was mixed, with optimism about 2025 tempered by uncertainty over global demand.
Despite these challenges, the Beige Book revealed cautious optimism for the year ahead. More contacts reported a positive outlook for 2025 than a negative one, reflecting the resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of shifting political landscape.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Markets showed little reaction to the Fed Beige Book release. The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), maintained its session gains of 1.8%.
Tech stocks rallied further during early afternoon trading in New York. The Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) was 2.3% higher, eyeing its strongest session since Nov. 6, 2024, when tech stocks showed a post-election rally.
The U.S. dollar index was also little moved, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) down 0.1% for the day.
Crude oil added gains, with the West Texas Intermediate light crude up by over 3% to $80 a barrel by 2:20 p.m. ET. 
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</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Fed Beige Book Flags Moderate Growth, Yet Tariffs, Immigration Policies Spark Concerns

Wall Street staged a strong rebound on Wednesday, as mixed inflation data bolstered investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's continuation of easing cycle in 2025, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk">easing recent market anxieties.</a>
The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November&#8217;s 2.7% and aligning with economist forecasts. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased by 0.4%, up from November&#8217;s 0.3%, marking the sharpest monthly rise since March 2024.
The inflation report strengthened market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. The probability of a rate cut by June climbed to 63%, up from 55% the previous day, with December futures now pricing in a 50% chance of two rate cuts.
The S&amp;P 500 advanced 1.5% by midday trading in New York, and the Dow Jones followed suit with a similar gain, both supported by strength in financial stocks. The Nasdaq 100 outperformed, rising 1.9%, while small-cap stocks posted a 1.7% gain.
Key financial giants, including JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BK#NYSE">BK</a>), and BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>), exceeded Wall Street's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43007354/big-banks-crush-q4-earnings-forecasts-financial-stocks-set-for-biggest-1-day-rally-since-trumps-election">fourth-quarter 2024 earnings expectations.</a>
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) surged nearly 2.2%, leading all S&amp;P 500 sectors and recording its strongest one-day gain in over two months.
In the bond market, yields on the 2-year Treasury note, which is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell 9 basis points to 4.28%, while 30-year yields dropped 8 basis points to 4.89%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained 1.3% as bond prices rose.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), remained flat, with dollar strength against the euro offset by weakness versus the yen.
West Texas Intermediate — as tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) — rallied 2%, hitting $80 a barrel during the day amid a stronger-than-expected drop in commercial crude stocks last week.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) jumped 2.6%, nearing $99,000, buoyed by optimism surrounding potential Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), gained 0.5%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day % chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,142.06</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,257.59</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,932.76</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>43,153.53</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:15 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent011525&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 1.5% to $590.96.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;rose 1.5% to $431.31.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rallied 1.9% to $514.49.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) increased 1.8% to $223.77.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund outperformed, up 1.2%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Citigroup Inc. rallied over 7%, in reaction to stronger-than-expected earnings, marking the strongest performance within the S&amp;P 500 index.</li>
<li>Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRG#NASDAQ">ISRG</a>) rose 6.9% after RBC raised its 12-month price target to $641. </li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) shares climbed more than 5% after RBC increased its price target for the stock from $313 to $440, while reaffirming its outperform rating.</li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/01/43006771/bitcoin-up-to-99000-is-loving-inflation-data-release-xrp-dogecoin-follow-higher">Bitcoin Up To $99,000 &#8216;Is Loving&#8217; Inflation Data Release, XRP, Dogecoin Follow Higher</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Bonds

ISRG

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Wall Street Rallies As Treasury Yields Fall, Banks Smash Q4 Earnings, Oil Hits $80: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

Consumer inflation eased slightly in December, with core CPI coming in at 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, below the 3.3% estimate. 
Headline CPI rose 2.9% year-over-year, in-line with expectations. The print is the latest economic data that the Federal Reserve will consider before its next interest rate decision<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk"> later this month.</a>
Expert Ideas: Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, highlighted the reductions in both month-over-month and year-over-year core inflation figures and sees the report as likely to alleviate some pressure in both the stock and bond markets. 
Joseph Brusuelas, RSM&#8216;s chief economist, noted that inflation remains sticky and seems to have stalled above the Fed's target rate of 2%. He pointed to the service sector and housing as two of the most stubborn areas. 
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/01/42979220/biden-announces-more-student-loan-forgiveness-bringing-debt-relief-to-nearly-5-million-borrowers">Biden Announces More Student Loan Forgiveness, Bringing Debt Relief To Nearly 5 Million Borrowers</a>
"The December CPI affirmed the growing inclination at the Federal Reserve that any further rate cuts — if there are cuts at all in 2025 — by central bank policymakers should be postponed until the second half of the year,&#8221; Brusuelas said. 
Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, said that while the lower core inflation number is a "key positive," he still does not see the Fed cutting rates in the first quarter. 
"Inflation data remains somewhat sticky and the labor market has been constructively strong. Based on that, we expect the Fed to stay on hold for the next few months, unless there is a sharp drop off in employment data," Tentarelli said.&nbsp;
Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, sees December's mixed CPI as a sign that inflation is "being pushed out of the system." 
"Core Inflation isn't accelerating and that's the story. The market may have had its hair on fire about inflation running away again, but the data do not support that conclusion," Cox said.&nbsp;&nbsp;
Markets React: All major U.S. indices opened higher Wednesday with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), tracking the S&amp;P 500, up 1.71% at $592.12 and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), tracking the Nasdaq 100 index, up 2.09% at $515.64 at the time of publication.&nbsp;
Read Next:&nbsp;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/25/01/42992007/trump-cabinet-confirmation-hearings-on-wednesday-departments-of-transportation-energy-state-attorney-general-cia-director">Trump Cabinet Confirmation Hearings On Wednesday: Departments Of Transportation, Energy, State; Attorney General, CIA Director</a>&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock&nbsp;

Interest Rate Cuts 'On Hold... If There Are Any At All In 2025' After December's Sticky Consumer Inflation Report: Economists

Major indices rallied on Wednesday after December inflation data showed underlying price pressures slowing, reducing fears of a prolonged pause in interest rate cuts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43001512/inflation-rises-to-29-in-december-core-slows-yet-rising-energy-costs-put-feds-target-at-risk">by the Federal Reserve. </a>
The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, up from November's 2.7%, matching economist forecasts. On a monthly basis, headline inflation increased 0.4%, accelerating from the 0.3% surge in November and marking the largest monthly rise since March 2024.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.2% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.3%. Month-over-month, core prices gained 0.2%, in line with forecasts.
The inflation data boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. The probability of a rate cut by June rose to 68% from 55% the previous day, with December futures now indicating a 58% chance of two cuts by year-end.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Gains As Bond Yields Retreat, Financial Stocks Soar</h3>
The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – surged 1.5% in early New York trading, led by financial stocks after major banks reported strong fourth-quarter earnings.
JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BK#NYSE">BK</a>) and BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>) all topped earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter and released upbeat guidance, reiterating that the financial sector thrived heading to the end of last year.
The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) rose 2.2%, leading all S&amp;P 500 sectors, while the SPDR S&amp;P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>) jumped 3.4%, reflecting strong performance among regional banks.
The Dow rose 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index outperformed, climbing 2.6%. Tech stocks, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), gained 1.7%, boosted by falling Treasury yields.
Yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note fell 9 basis points to 4.27%, while 30-year yields dropped 9 basis points to 4.88%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) gained 1.6% as bond prices rallied.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose 2% to over $99,000, supported by rising hopes for Fed rate cuts. Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), added 0.5%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Top Movers</h3>
S&amp;P 500 Gainers:
<ul>
<li>Texas Pacific Land Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TPL#NYSE">TPL</a>): +5.85%</li>
<li>BlackRock Inc.: +5.54%</li>
<li>Assurant Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIZ#NYSE">AIZ</a>): +5.49%</li>
<li>Bio-Techne Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECH#NASDAQ">TECH</a>): +5.36%</li>
<li>Citigroup Inc.: +5.16%</li>
</ul>
Nasdaq 100 Movers:
<ul>
<li>Copart Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPRT#NASDAQ">CPRT</a>): +4.62%</li>
<li>Intuitive Surgical Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ISRG#NASDAQ">ISRG</a>): +4.60%</li>
<li>AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APP#NASDAQ">APP</a>): +4.43%</li>
<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NASDAQ">PLTR</a>): +4.30%</li>
<li>The Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTD#NASDAQ">TTD</a>): +3.39%</li>
</ul>
Top Gainers In The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBWB#NYSE">KBWB</a>):
<ul>
<li>Citigroup Inc.: +5.27%</li>
<li>Wells Fargo &amp; Co.: +4.80%</li>
<li>Bank of New York Mellon Corp.: +4.35%</li>
<li>Western Alliance Bancorp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WAL#NYSE">WAL</a>): +4.13%</li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.: +4.02%</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43000684/jpmorgan-q4-earnings-shine-investment-banking-revenue-jumps-46-yy-jamie-dimon-says-inflation-may-persist-for-some-time">JPMorgan Chase Q4 Earnings: Investment Banking Revenue Jumps 46%, CEO Jamie Dimon Says &#8216;Inflation May Persist For Some Time&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Small Cap

CPRT

KBWB

TECH

Stocks Rise On Core Inflation Slowdown, Banks Rally After Strong Q4 Earnings, Treasury Yields Plummet

<ul>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>DJT</li>
<li>RGTI</li>
<li>JPM</li>
<li>QQQ</li>
<li>LINE</li>
<li>AMD</li>
<li>PLTR</li>
<li>RKLB</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

LINE

RGTI

RKLB

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of January 15, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

-Reuters, citing Commerce Department

US To Impose New Export Controls On Lab Equipment To Address Concerns About Biotechnology And AI

Consumer inflation surged for the third straight month in December, rekindling concerns that the months-long cooling of price pressures could be over and casting doubt on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s ability to steer inflation <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation">toward its 2% target.</a>
The headline Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, according to Wednesday&#8217;s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This marks an increase from November's 2.7% and matches economist forecasts. Notably, it represents the third straight inflation increase and highest annual rate since July 2024.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.4%, up from both the previous month's 0.3% gain and the 0.3% predicted by analysts.
The energy index climbed 2.6% in December, contributing to over 40% of the monthly increase in overall prices, with the gasoline index rising 4.4% during the month.
Core inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy categories, rose by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, below the 3.3% estimate. Month-over-month, core prices marked a 0.2% increase, matching estimates.
Items that witnessed an increase in December include shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance and medical care.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Yields, Dollar Tumble </h3>
Prior to the release of the CPI report, traders priced in one 25-basis-point rate cut by December 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The mixed December inflation data could keep hopes for more than one rate cut by year-end quite stretched.
Treasury yields tumbled in response to the data, with the policy-sensitive two-year yield down 9 basis points to 4.28%. The U.S. dollar also weakened, with a key index tracking the greenback falling 0.5% during the session.
Equity markets reacted with optimism. Pre-market futures on the S&amp;P 500 rallied 1.5%, while contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 soared 1.6%. 
On Tuesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched up 0.1%, while the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) declined 0.1%. 
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42996752/us-stocks-to-open-higher-ahead-of-december-inflation-data-all-eyes-on-baking-earnings-by-jpm-goldman-citi-wells-fargo">US Stocks To Open Higher Ahead Of December Inflation Data: All Eyes On Banking Stocks As JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, Wells Fargo Report Quarterly Earnings</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Inflation Rises To 2.9% In December: Core Slows, Yet Rising Energy Costs Put Fed's Target At Risk

Major indexes are higher following December CPI data. CPI was in line with estimates, while core CPI rose by less than expected.

Macro Notification

US CPI (YoY) (Dec) +2.9% vs +2.9% Est.; +2.7% Prior

U.S. stock futures advanced on Wednesday following Tuesday&#8217;s mixed close. Futures of all four major indices rose in premarket trade.
Traders await the December Consumer Price Index will provide fresh insights into inflation&#8217;s trajectory, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's policy stance amid mounting uncertainty over interest rates.
The headline inflation rate is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42988894/all-eyes-on-december-inflation-betting-odds-signal-risk-of-fed-struggling-to-tame">projected </a>to rise 2.9% year-over-year, according to TradingEconomics, marking an increase from November&#8217;s 2.7% pace. On a monthly basis, headline inflation is expected to grow by 0.3%, maintaining the same pace as the prior month. 
Amid rotation, technology stocks dragged the Nasdaq down on Tuesday as well, whereas Dow Jones, which has the least number of tech constituents, rose over 220 points.
The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.77% and 4.35%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025 decision was at 97.3%, according <a href="http://The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.77% and 4.35%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025 decision was at 97.3%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. --https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">to</a> CME Group&#8217;s FedWatch tool.
<figure class="wp-block-table"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Futures</td>
<td>Change (+/-)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>0.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>0.18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>0.51%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
In premarket trading on Wednesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was up 0.18% to $583.22&nbsp; and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose 0.23% to $506.25, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stock market closed with a mixed performance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a significant intraday surge following the release of Producer Price Index data.
PPI increased by 0.2% in December, lower than the expected 0.3% and November&#8217;s 0.4% increase. This positive economic indicator boosted investor sentiment.
However, Big Tech stocks weighed heavily on the Nasdaq. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) experienced notable declines, contributing to the index&#8217;s negative performance.
Sectoral performance was varied across the S&amp;P 500. Utilities, materials, and financial sectors closed higher, while communication services and healthcare sectors underperformed.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Index</td>
<td>Performance (+/-)</td>
<td>Value</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq Composite</td>
<td>-0.23%</td>
<td>19,044.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>0.11%</td>
<td>5,842.91</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>0.52%</td>
<td>42,518.28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1.13%</td>
<td>2,219.24</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Insights From Analysts
Howard Marks, a veteran investor who accurately predicted the dot-com bubble, warns of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/42995814/billionaire-investor-who-predicted-the-dot-com-crash-25-years-ago-warns-of-another-market-storm-brewing-in-the-us">potential market risks</a> in his latest memo, &#8220;On Bubble Watch.&#8221; 
Marks highlights several concerning signs:
<ul>
<li>Over-optimism: High market exuberance and elevated S&amp;P 500 valuations.</li>
<li>AI Hype: Excessive enthusiasm for AI may be inflating valuations in the tech sector.</li>
<li>Magnificent 7 Reliance: Over-reliance on the continued success of a small group of dominant tech companies.</li>
<li>Index Investing Bias: Index fund inflows may be driving up prices regardless of intrinsic value.</li>
</ul>
While not definitively declaring a bubble, the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, Marks stresses the importance of acknowledging these risks. He acknowledges counterarguments, such as reasonable valuations for the &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; and a moderate P/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500.
Ultimately, Marks concludes that the market may be expensive and slightly overheated, but it doesn&#8217;t yet display the irrational exuberance typical of a true bubble.
&#8220;The markets are likely to remain listless until Monday&#8217;s Inauguration Day, when President Donald Trump is expected to issue numerous Executive Orders which might muddy rather than clarify the economic outlook,&#8221; said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research in his QuickTakes.
Carson Research in their 2025 markets outlook, released on Tuesday said that they expect U.S. growth likely to outpace other global economies this year. They expect a 12-15% return from stocks.
&#8220;Looking at forward 12-month S&amp;P 500 earnings we once again see new highs, now at $271 per share, up from $225 in early 2023,&#8221; the report said.
&#8220;We are overweight equities and believe current forward earnings growth expectations remain supportive of stock gains given the economic backdrop.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>
Upcoming Economic Data
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, the headline and core consumer price index for December and the Empire State manufacturing survey data for January will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak at 9:00 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>New York Fed President Williams will speak at 11:00 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at noon, ET.</li>
<li>On Thursday, initial jobless claims till Jan. 11 will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>December&#8217;s U.S. retail sales, import price index, and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>Business inventory data for November and the Home builder confidence index for January will be released at 10:00 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>On Friday, housing starts and building permits data for December will be released at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
<li>The industrial production and capacity utilization for December will be announced at 9:15 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>
Stocks In Focus:
<ul>
<li>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) was up 0.21% in premarket on Wednesday as Wall Street expects it to report quarterly earnings of $4.04 per share on revenue of $41.56 billion before the opening bell.</li>
<li>Wells Fargo &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>) was up 2.39% ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to report quarterly earnings of $1.35 per share on revenue of $20.58 billion.</li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) was up 0.26% as analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings of $8.35 per share on revenue of $12.46 billion before the opening bell.</li>
<li>Citigroup Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>) was up 0.39% ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect it to post quarterly earnings of $1.24 per share on revenue of $19.51 billion. The company will release earnings before the markets open.</li>
<li>Applied Digital Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APLD#NASDAQ">APLD</a>) was down 6.21% despite beating the second-quarter revenue and EPS estimates on Tuesday.</li>
<li>Safe &amp; Green Holdings Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGBX#NASDAQ">SGBX</a>) was up 122.22% as it decided to acquire 100% of New Asia Holdings, including its subsidiaries Olenox Corp and Machfu.com.</li>
<li>Vision Marine Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VMAR#NASDAQ">VMAR</a>) was up 46.43% after it filed its patent application with the United States Patent and Trademark Office for a Battery Authentication Encryption Technology.</li>
</ul>
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.62% to hover around $76.84 per barrel.
The gold spot index was up by 1.04% to $2,710.19 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down 0.20% at 109.050 level.
Asian markets closed mixed on Wednesday as Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng, and India&#8217;s S&amp;P BSE Sensex index advanced. Whereas, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Australia&#8217;s ASX 200, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225, and South Korea&#8217;s Kospi index fell. European markets were also trading higher.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42967576/meta-investors-push-mark-zuckerberg-to-replace-72b-cash-with-bitcoin-to-combat-inflation-heres-what-it-means-for-investors">Meta Investors Push Mark Zuckerberg To Replace $72B Cash With Bitcoin To Combat Inflation: Here&#8217;s What It Means For Investors</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Wikimedia

APLD

SGBX

VMAR

US Stocks To Open Higher Ahead Of December Inflation Data: All Eyes On Banking Stocks As JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi, Wells Fargo Report Quarterly Earnings

Wealth management companies have loaded up on Marvell Technology Inc.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRVL#NASDAQ">MRVL</a>) shares in the fourth quarter as it achieved a significant milestone with its new chip. Technical analysis of daily moving averages indicates a strong bullish uptrend.
What Happened: According to the 13F filings, Parisi Gray Wealth Management increased its stake in MRVL by 8,181 shares or 197% with its total investment valued at $1.363 million as of the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2024.
Nordea Investment Management, on the other hand, increased its stake by 14% which represents the addition of 571,005 shares. Its total investment value in the chipmaker stood at $518.435 million.
Graypoint, which just added 894 shares in the fourth quarter, increased its stake by 29%, with its investment value of $443,000.
On the contrary, International Assets Investment Management, which is an affiliate of IAA, offloaded 98% or 236,361 shares in the company. Its current investment value after the transaction stood at $405,000.
While there are many more companies yet to repost their fourth quarter, these firms represent the top trades among the 87 that have already disclosed their 13F filings.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42895251/mrvl-stock-has-gained-over-7-in-last-five-sessions-as-marvell-technologys-new-chip-boosts-ai-server-performance-heres-what-technical-analysis-says">MRVL Stock Has Gained Over 7% In Last Five Sessions As Marvell Technology&#8217;s New Chip Boosts AI Server Performance: Here&#8217;s What Technical Analysis Says</a>
Why It Matters: The semiconductor manufacturer&#8217;s new XPU chip with a fresh update accelerates the performance of AI servers. A slew of positive developments within the company has led to strong performance coupled with strong fundamentals and technicals for the semiconductor manufacturer.
Marvell&#8217;s CEO Matt Murphy during its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/12/42302752/marvell-technology-stock-climbs-after-better-than-expected-q3-results-strong-q4-guidance">third-quarter</a> earnings call said that they expect a 26% growth in the topline in fiscal 2025 on an annual basis. 
MRVL was up 0.20% in premarket, whereas it closed at $115.20 apiece on Tuesday, the technical analysis of daily moving averages shows strong support for the stock.
Marvell's shares were above its 20, 50, and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting a bullish uptrend. The 20-day moving average price was $114.76 apiece, whereas the 50-day average stood at $103.14. The 200-day moving average was at $78.89.
On the other hand, the relative strength index of 55.54 suggested that the stock could be moderately overbought but still in the neutral zone.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042503/MRVL-tech-chart-fin-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-734164" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042503/MRVL-tech-chart-fin-1024x576.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042503/MRVL-tech-chart-fin-300x169.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042503/MRVL-tech-chart-fin-768x432.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042503/MRVL-tech-chart-fin-1536x864.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042503/MRVL-tech-chart-fin.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
What Are Analysts Saying: According to the analysts <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MRVL/analyst-ratings">tracked by Benzinga</a>, MRVL has a consensus price target of $112.5 based on the ratings of 33 analysts. The highest price target is $149 apiece issued by Craig-Hallum as of Jan. 6, 2025. The lowest target price is $75 per share issued by Barclays on Jan. 16, 2024.
The average price target between Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Craig-Hallum implies a 21.29% upside for MRVL.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/MRVL/analyst-ratings"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="943" height="354" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042417/MRVL-ANR-ANR-ANR.png" alt="" class="wp-image-734161" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042417/MRVL-ANR-ANR-ANR.png 943w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042417/MRVL-ANR-ANR-ANR-300x113.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/15042417/MRVL-ANR-ANR-ANR-768x288.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 943px) 100vw, 943px" /></a></figure>
Price Action: Shares of Marvell have risen by 75.82% over the last year, whereas, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) which mirrors the Nasdaq 100, rose 23.33% in the same period, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Over the last six months, the shares gained 56.52%, outperforming QQQ which just rose 1.80% in the same period.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/01/42967576/meta-investors-push-mark-zuckerberg-to-replace-72b-cash-with-bitcoin-to-combat-inflation-heres-what-it-means-for-investors">Meta Investors Push Mark Zuckerberg To Replace $72B Cash With Bitcoin To Combat Inflation: Here&#8217;s What It Means For Investors </a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

MRVL

Nordea, Parisi Gray, Graypoint Load Up On Marvell Technology Shares, IAIM Dilutes 98% In Q4: Here's What MRVL's Technical Analysis Says

QQQ: No Tech Bubble, But Caution Is Necessary

Beware Rotation - S&P 500 Top 10 Stocks' YTD Performance; Top 10 Client Holdings

Can The Bull Market Sustain Itself?

Inflation came back into focus this week with the CPI and PPI reports being served up. What do they tell us about future Fed action? More importantly, what does it tell us about the path of the S&P 500 (SPY) from here. Read on for the full story... Inflation and the Fed were the main investment stories throughout 2024. However, in early January two other stories jumped to the front of the line:
<ul>
<li>Government debt concerns causing higher long term Treasury rates</li>
<li>Trump Tariff Plans (and the unknown outcome)</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
I give a pretty good accounting of these 2 vital stories in <a href="https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-stock-market-expert-predicts-3-6-months-of-pain/">my commentary from earlier this week</a>.  Today the focus returns to inflation and the Fed as CPI and PPI reports were served up. Let's dig in to find out what they tell us.
Market Outlook
Coming down the home stretch of 2024 we endured several straight months of inflation reports that did not ebb lower. The Fed was fully aware of this leading to their 12/18 announcement that indeed inflation is a bit too persistent and thus they will slow down their planned pace of rate cuts.
Traders threw a tantrum like a 3 year old who was told they won't be getting a 4th slice of cake at the birthday party. This led to a broad market pullback with many groups in full blown correction territory (namely small caps and any groups that were counting on lower rates like home builders).
The good news is that the January inflation reports are showing some improvement in the data. Most investors will want to focus on the more widely followed CPI report from 1/15. There we saw core inflation cool a notch from 3.3% to 3.2%.
The most beneficial part of that release was the modest 0.2% month over month reading for core CPI. If that held up it would get the annual pace down closer to the 2% target.
Investors don't pay as much attention to the PPI report. However, economists understand it is a leading indicator of what shows up in CPI down the road.
Here too the best news was on the month over month numbers where core PPI was flat. If this moderating trend continues, then it once again helps point to getting inflation back to the 2% Fed target.
These reports did not move the needle on expectations for the next Fed meeting on 1/29. It is widely understood from last time that no rate cut will be forthcoming. In fact, they are projecting only 2 cuts in the year ahead with investors right now thinking that is next at the May or June meeting.
Pulling back to the bigger economic picture, the good news is that most of the data is in for economists to accurately model Q4 GDP. Most are coming out in a range of +2.5% to 3%. That would be a robust reading that should also point to solid earnings growth.
The best news on the economic front to share is that the NFIB Small Business Optimism index LEAPT from 93.7 in October before the election to 105.1 now. This is the highest reading since October 2018.
The more optimistic these business owners feel about the future...the more likely they are to invest in their business including the hiring of more employees to fuel growth. So this is great news to increase the odds of more quality GDP reads in the quarters to come.
For as good as all that economic news is, I still think the unknowns about government debt and especially tariffs will weight heavily on stocks.
Just don't see a current catalyst for the S&amp;P 500 (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/SPY/">SPY</a>) to make new highs above 6,100.
On the downside is the recent lows around 5,800. And if that falters then we are talking about a rendezvous with the 200 day moving average currently at 5,589.
That downside should not scare you that much. Especially since the bear market low is 3,491. Meaning that just like Virgina Slims ads "we've come a long way baby".
This just seems like a natural juncture to consolidate under the highs + sector rotation to shake off any excess valuations.
This means to expect a fair amount of volatility. Both big drops and big bounces. The kind of action that can get an investor nauseous.
The solution is to keep your eyes on the long term horizon which is still bullish. So best to use any forthcoming dips as an opportunity to load up on the best stocks for the next higher.
Which stocks are those?
Read on in the next section for the answer... 
What To Do Next?
Check out my portfolio with hand selected picks for the current market environment:
<ul>
<li>7 stocks to buy</li>
<li>1 stock to short</li>
<li>1 ETF to buy</li>
</ul>
All the stocks have been selected using the proven outperformance that comes from our POWR Ratings stock selection model which has done 4X better than the S&amp;P 500 since 1999.
Now add in my 44 years of investing experience seeing bull markets...bear markets...and everything between. This helps me pick the right stocks for the current environment.
If you are curious to learn more, and want to see my current 9 recommendations, then please click the link below to get started now.
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Steve Reitmeister's Trading Plan &amp; Top Recommendations &gt;</a>
Wishing you a world of investment success!
<img class="size-full wp-image-14665 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Signature.jpg" alt="" width="106" height="78" /> 
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced "Righty") 
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Editor, Reitmeister Total Return</a>

<hr />
SPY shares were trading at $597.18 per share on Friday morning, up $5.54 (+0.94%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 1.89%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index during the same period.
<hr><div style="clear:both;"></div> <h2>About the Author: Steve Reitmeister</h2> <img src='https:/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Screen-Shot-2019-07-23-at-2.05.03-PM.png' style="float:left; padding:5px;width:125px;">Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as "Reity". Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the <a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/" title="More info about Reitmeister Total Return portfolio">Reitmeister Total Return portfolio</a>. Learn more about Reity's background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.<a href="https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=steve-reitmeister">More...</a>The post <a href=https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-the-latest-on-inflation-the-stock-market/>The Latest on Inflation & the Stock Market</a> appeared first on <a href=https://stocknews.com/>StockNews.com</a>

The Latest on Inflation & the Stock Market

Embracing Stock Market Stoicism

2 important market developments are leading market expert Steve Reitmeister to predict 3 to 6 months of painful market conditions pushing the S&P 500 (SPY) lower. Read on for the full story... December was tough enough for stocks. Yes, hard to see that with only modest losses for the but once again it was really only Mag 7 stocks getting any love from investors.
The market hates uncertainty. 
This is not the first time you have heard that...nor the last as it's one of the truest statements in all of investing.
When the path forward is uncertain investors become more cautious. And that is the simplest explanation for what is happening now which I don't believe gets cleared up for 3 to 6 months.
In the meantime, the market will become more volatile with a modest downside bias. Perhaps down to test the 200 day average for the S&amp;P 500 (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/SPY/">SPY</a>) currently @ 5,576.
This leads me to reduce the Reitmeister Total Return portfolio to only 65% long the stock market.
Why not take more money off the table? Because still don't believe it changes the fact that it's a long term bull market. Just seems like this is a natural place to press pause for a while and wait for a clearer green light to move forward. Thus, don't want too much money out of the market when primary trend still bullish and it could start running without warning.
The specific trades to get us there are shared at the end. For now, I think it's best to stay focused on the bigger picture.
What is Uncertain? 
I could create an incredibly long list of uncertain things. Never a shortage of those given that economics itself is a soft science with uncertain outcomes. Yet we will narrow it down the 2 that are really the central conversation at this time:
<ul>
<li>Why Are Long Term Rates Rising Again??? </li>
<li>Tariffs: What Will Be the Final Outcome?</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
These are real game changers with a wide range of possible outcomes. Thus, a natural time for investors to pause in order to see how things play out.
But they never really press pause as that is far too subtle. It is more about volatility and a changing of the odds every time new information comes out. Since early in the cycle, then downside more likely than upside which is why we are applying this dose of caution in our approach.
Why Are Long Term Rates Rising Again???
At first it was easy to assume that the stickiness of inflation and thus the delays in future cuts by the Fed was the reason for the 10 year rising. That was a fine adjustment at first...but the longer it goes on, it points fingers towards a more sinister cause...that being the long run fear of having too much government debt.
I previously talk about this in my commentary back in October 2023 <a href="https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-bear-market-warning-from-the-bond-market/">in this article that you should read now</a>. (Just start 1/3rd of the way down after it says BUT WHAT IF THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT?)
The possibility of a debt crisis has been a CERTAINTY in my mind because of the basic economics discussed in the article above. It has always more a matter of WHEN it would happen. And that might not be for 20-50 years...or it may be tomorrow. Yes, it's that complicated as are most other Black Swan type events.
Because it could happen at any time is why I have a weekly calendar reminder every Tuesday to keep an eye on Global Bond Rates with a focus on other largely indebted countries that would likely fail first like Italy, Portugal or Singapore. Maybe even Japan.
Simply don't need to panic until at least 1 domino is starting to fall. To be clear, no domino is falling at this time...just a swelling of long term Treasury rates which has other possible meanings...or it could mean precisely that investors want a better rate of return for the higher risk involved with a Government with a debt AND spending problem that never seems to get better.
One more thing I should mention on this front. I recently moved 10% of my portfolio out of the stock market and bought a 7 year Fixed Annuity Index (which is the longest period they would agree to as I would have taken it to infinity if they would allow).
The reason for this is that too much of my family's net worth is in the stock market which will go in the toilet when debt crisis comes to town. So too will bond investments. So beyond cash and gold this was the best idea of how to protect against a potential catastrophic event and still have some upside if all remains well.
Why not larger allocation to annuity? Because as stated above, this debt crisis problem might be 20-50 years down the road. So 10% is enough for now and can always increase when risks increase.
Now let's shift too...
Tariffs: What Will Be the Final Outcome?
The more I read this weekend to get my head around current market conditions...the more I realized this is likely the bigger question mark for investors. Truly such a wide range of outcomes because the policies bandied about during the campaign were so outrageous as not to be believable.
The posturing since then has not really softened and thus investors are confused as to how this plays out including the risk of higher inflation (because higher tariffs = higher costs to US consumer). Or trade wars. Or ???.
Let's imagine that at best this is resolved in the Spring of 2025 with Summer being more likley. Now picture all the headline risks between now and then?
Each salvo from the US or trade partners (namely China) would have serious ripple effects to the market. Meaning it likely gets worse before it gets better.
In the end I think it will be just fine. John Mauldin shares some insights in his <a href="https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-does-trump-change-stock-market-outlook/">well reasoned piece from over the weekend.</a> You can skip to half way down to the section labeled "The T Word" talking about tariffs.
But do consider reading his entire article as he talks about other reasons the outlook is uncertain (or what Mauldin calls "partly cloudy"). In the end Mauldin is optimistic that all turns out well enough. This is really a vote of confidence in the resilience of the US economy which is often very hard to knock off its axis.
I feel the same. That is why I am still bullish in the long run. But for next 3-6 months the uncertainty discussed above needs to become more certain before the next bull run starts again.
What To Do Next?
We still have an interesting portfolio of trades to consider now:
<ul>
<li>7 stocks to buy</li>
<li>1 stock to short</li>
<li>1 ETF to buy</li>
</ul>
All the stocks have been selected using the proven outperformance that comes from our POWR Ratings stock selection model which has done 4X better than the S&amp;P 500 since 1999.
Now add in my 44 years of investing experience seeing bull markets...bear markets...and everything between. This helps me pick the right stocks for the current environment.
If you are curious to learn more, and want to see my current 9 recommendations, then please click the link below to get started now.
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Steve Reitmeister's Trading Plan &amp; Top Recommendations &gt;</a>
Wishing you a world of investment success!
<img class="size-full wp-image-9357 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Reity.jpg" alt="" width="99" height="70" /> 
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced "Righty") 
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Editor, Reitmeister Total Return</a>

<hr />
SPY shares rose $0.71 (+0.12%) in after-hours trading Monday. Year-to-date, SPY has declined -0.80%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index during the same period.
<hr><div style="clear:both;"></div> <h2>About the Author: Steve Reitmeister</h2> <img src='https:/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Screen-Shot-2019-07-23-at-2.05.03-PM.png' style="float:left; padding:5px;width:125px;">Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as "Reity". Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the <a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/" title="More info about Reitmeister Total Return portfolio">Reitmeister Total Return portfolio</a>. Learn more about Reity's background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.<a href="https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=steve-reitmeister">More...</a>The post <a href=https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-stock-market-expert-predicts-3-6-months-of-pain/>Stock Market Expert Predicts 3-6 Months of Pain</a> appeared first on <a href=https://stocknews.com/>StockNews.com</a>

Stock Market Expert Predicts 3-6 Months of Pain

As January goes...so goes the stock market. And right now that saying bodes poorly for the year ahead. Especially for the S&P 500 (SPY). That is why Steve Reitmeister shares 2 different paths the market could take in 2025 and how to get your portfolio on the right side of the action. December was tough enough for stocks. Yes, hard to see that with only modest losses for the S&amp;P 500 (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/SPY/">SPY</a>)...but once again it was really only Mag 7 stocks getting any love from investors.
Nothing is that surprising about his action given how large caps are getting pretty fully valued. And Mag 7 stocks are flirting with "irrational exuberance" levels.
This leads to 2 possible outcomes in 2025 which we will discuss in this week's Reitmeister Total Return commentary.
Market Outlook
Path 1: The Logical Choice
Sometimes the stock market is orderly and investors make fairly rational decisions. Especially if they are faced with this curious valuation quandary:
<img class="size-full wp-image-15171 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Market-Cap-PE-1-6-25.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="445" />
There is no denying what is found in this PE chart.
Mega caps (aka Mag 7) are bloated...even above 1999 tech bubble level.
Large caps are pretty much fully valued.
Small and Mid Caps are not only attractively valued versus their larger peers... but actually attractive versus their historical average at this stage of a bull market.
The rational thing would be to take profits on large and mega caps and rotate that money to more deserving small and mid cap names.
This is what I assume will happen in 2025 and why I only have a 6,300 year end target for the S&amp;P 500. And to be honest, a breakeven finish tussling with 6,000 the entire year would not surprise me at all. The early January results seem to confirm that narrative.
Gladly, we can lean into small and mid caps that should be set to outperform. In fact, it is the strength of the POWR Ratings to discover this kind of "under the radar" stocks with sparkling fundamentals.
Unfortunately we still have to contend with the real fact that things could go on the less desirable next path...
Path 2: Valuation Bubble
As famed economist John Maynard Keynes reminded us a long time ago "the market can stay illogical a lot longer than you can stay solvent".
And yes, this is coming from a guy that twice over went bankrupt in the stock market making bad bets.
Studies of Behavioral Finance have shown that the longer something has been true...the longer people assume it will stay true.
This logic created the Tech Bubble of 1999 followed by the housing bubble of 2008.
I remember early in 2008 they did a survey of residents in Los Angeles about their expected rate of returns on their homes for the next 5 years. The answer was 22% increase.
So even though going back the last 70 years the average increase of home values was only +2.7% (about the rate of inflation) people were fixated on the most recent results expecting them to continue into the future.
This leads to "irrational exuberance"...where people bet more and more on this outcome leading to a more disastrous day of reckoning down the road when it implodes.
Typically when the feature stocks get punished...they take the rest of the market with them.
However, in 2000 it was interesting that the average stock was higher that year even though tech stocks were tumbling down. (I checked my records to find that I gained a little over +16% on the year).
This last part gives me hope that the unwinding of Mega Caps can be orderly. But sometimes when everyone heads to the exists at the same time it leads to calamity.
Again, I think Path 1 is the more likely outcome...but we will sleep with 1 eye open in case Path 2 emerges. Gladly we have a proven playbook during those times that should have us stay on the right side of the action.
What To Do Next?
Discover my current portfolio of 10 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our exclusive POWR Ratings model. (Nearly 4X better than the S&amp;P 500 going back to 1999).
All of these hand selected picks are all based on my 44 years of investing experience seeing bull markets...bear markets...and everything between.
And right now this portfolio is beating the stuffing out of the market. 
If you are curious to learn more, and want to see my top 10 timely stock recommendations, then please click the link below to get started now.
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Steve Reitmeister's Trading Plan &amp; Top 10 Stocks &gt;</a>
Wishing you a world of investment success!
<img class="size-full wp-image-9357 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Reity.jpg" alt="" width="99" height="70" /> 
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced "Righty") 
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Editor, Reitmeister Total Return</a>

<hr />
SPY shares were trading at $588.63 per share on Tuesday afternoon, down $6.73 (-1.13%). Year-to-date, SPY has gained 0.44%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index during the same period.
<hr><div style="clear:both;"></div> <h2>About the Author: Steve Reitmeister</h2> <img src='https:/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Screen-Shot-2019-07-23-at-2.05.03-PM.png' style="float:left; padding:5px;width:125px;">Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as "Reity". Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the <a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/" title="More info about Reitmeister Total Return portfolio">Reitmeister Total Return portfolio</a>. Learn more about Reity's background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.<a href="https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=steve-reitmeister">More...</a>The post <a href=https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-how-bad-will-2025-be-for-stocks/>How Bad Will 2025 Be for Stocks?</a> appeared first on <a href=https://stocknews.com/>StockNews.com</a>

How Bad Will 2025 Be for Stocks?

It looks like December 2024 problems have rolled over to early 2025. That being a "rolling correction" which doesn't move the needle much on the S&P 500 (SPY) but does spell problems for the broader market. Read on below for the full story... Often the early days of a new year set the tone for how the rest of the year will turn out. That is because so many investment managers have prepared for a shift in strategy that takes place to start the year.
The result on Thursday was heavy sector rotation which continues the rolling correction we saw forming in late 2024. I shared insights on the rolling correction back a couple weeks ago <a href="https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-is-the-stock-market-in-a-rolling-correction/">in this article.</a>
Today we will expand on this notion with the recent performance results. Even more important, we will talk about how to invest in this environment to enjoy superior results.
Market Outlook
I think the fastest way to get across the notion of a rolling correction is with this 1 month sector performance chart:
<img class="size-full wp-image-15164 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Sector-1-month-1-2-25.jpg" alt="" width="975" height="332" />
You will notice that most sectors are beyond the limits of a pullback nearing in on a full blow 10% correction. And yet the S&amp;P 500 (<a href="https://stocknews.com/stock/SPY/">SPY</a>) is only 3% off the highs.
On the surface that math doesn't add up until you understand that most of the Magnificent 7 are inside the Communication Services sector while some are in Technology. Those larger stocks barely budging while the rest of the market is selling off mode helps put the rolling correction concept into focus.
My <a href="https://www.wallstreetzen.com/blog/stock-market-outlook-webinar-replay/">2025 Stock Market Outlook</a> still looks on track. The main change from what I said in September is that I expected stocks to sprint into the finish line in 2024 leading to a sell off to start the year.
As it turns out that sell off (rolling correction) started in December and continues to start the new year. This should set up for an interesting shift in the investment landscape the rest of the year where..."One man's trash is another man's treasure". 
Meaning that the discarded stocks from this correction will become wonderful value opportunities for some longer term investors. There was some bargain shopping today. But even more will follow in the weeks ahead.
Most importantly, I think the 4 year reign of Mega Caps (and large caps for that matter) is over. Some of these stocks have straight up nose bleed valuations that are not supported by history. And yes, fairly close to "irrational exuberance" territory.
Thus, it was nice to see TSLA cough up another 6% Thursday and now down over 20% from the December peaks. This means that some well needed order and sanity is being returned to the investing world. Let's hope that continues.
This should lead to a rotation to find greater value elsewhere in the market. Gladly that can easily be found in small and mid caps with PEs under the historical norm at 15-16. That is more than a 30% discount from the PE level of the S&amp;P 500. And about half of the Mega Caps.
On top of that, I still think economically sensitive, Risk On groups are the place to be. Like the aforementioned Industrials and Basic Materials. On top of that would be those groups that benefit from lower rates like home builders, auto, and finance.
This formula certainly paid the bills on the first session in January...and believe will be the formula to outperform the rest of the year.
What To Do Next?
Discover my current portfolio of 10 stocks packed to the brim with the outperforming benefits found in our exclusive POWR Ratings model. (Nearly 4X better than the S&amp;P 500 going back to 1999).
All of these hand selected picks are all based on my 44 years of investing experience seeing bull markets...bear markets...and everything between.
And right now this portfolio is beating the stuffing out of the market. 
If you are curious to learn more, and want to see my top 10 timely stock recommendations, then please click the link below to get started now.
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Steve Reitmeister's Trading Plan &amp; Top 10 Stocks &gt;</a>
Wishing you a world of investment success!
<img class="size-full wp-image-9357 alignnone" src="https://stocknews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Reity.jpg" alt="" width="99" height="70" /> 
Steve Reitmeister…but everyone calls me Reity (pronounced "Righty") 
<a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/">Editor, Reitmeister Total Return</a>

<hr />
SPY shares fell $0.35 (-0.06%) in after-hours trading Friday. Year-to-date, SPY has gained 1.00%, versus a % rise in the benchmark S&amp;P 500 index during the same period.
<hr><div style="clear:both;"></div> <h2>About the Author: Steve Reitmeister</h2> <img src='https:/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Screen-Shot-2019-07-23-at-2.05.03-PM.png' style="float:left; padding:5px;width:125px;">Steve is better known to the StockNews audience as "Reity". Not only is he the CEO of the firm, but he also shares his 40 years of investment experience in the <a href="https://report.stocknews.com/rtrsignup/" title="More info about Reitmeister Total Return portfolio">Reitmeister Total Return portfolio</a>. Learn more about Reity's background, along with links to his most recent articles and stock picks.<a href="https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=steve-reitmeister">More...</a>The post <a href=https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-rolling-correction-for-stocks-in-2025/>Rolling Correction for Stocks in 2025?</a> appeared first on <a href=https://stocknews.com/>StockNews.com</a>

Rolling Correction for Stocks in 2025?

US equity futures are higher modestly, rebounding from yesterday's just as modest loss.

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