Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (ARCA: UUP)

最新ニュース Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (ARCA:UUP)

PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish

The fund invests in futures contracts in an attempt to track its index. The index is calculated to reflect the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of long positions in DX Contracts.

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Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

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3月17日（月）、景気指標が発表された結果、株式市場は上昇で取引を終えた。数週にわたる損失の後、投資家は打撃を受けた株を買い増しし始めた。米国ではニューヨークの製造業の活動が急速に減少し、関税の上昇によるコストが原因で住宅建設業者の景気後退は明らかである。

アジアとヨーロッパ市場が上昇、金が高値更新 - 米国が眠っている間の本日のグローバル市場

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3月13日（木）の米国市場は大幅下落で取引を終了、米国のインフレデータが好調にもかかわらず新たな関税が明らかになったことでS&amp;P500は調整に入った。

今日のグローバル市場⁻アジアとヨーロッパ市場は上昇、金は3,000ドル

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2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。

消費者物価指数がFOMCで異例の報告

Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF

The University of Michigan&#8217;s May consumer survey delivered a jarring message to Wall Street and policymakers: sentiment among American consumers has plunged to the lowest levels since June 2020, while expectations for inflation surged to heights last seen <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">during the early 1980s.</a>
The preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April and missing economists' forecasts of 53.4. The gauge is now 27% lower than it was a year ago, signaling deepening anxiety among households despite the recent 90-day pause on tariffs.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Expectations Sink To 1980 Lows, Inflation Fears Echo 1981</h3>
The subindex for Current Economic Conditions declined to 57.6 from 59.8 in April, while the Consumer Expectations subindex – a measure of forward-looking sentiment – dipped further from 47.3 to 46.5. 
That reading marks the weakest since May 1980, worse even than the worst moments of the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid-19 pandemic.
"Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of consumers, up from almost 60% in April," said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. "Uncertainty over trade policy continues to dominate consumers' thinking about the economy."
The data was gathered between April 22 and May 13, closing two days after the White House announced a trade truce with Chine, leaving room for potential revision of the data. 
&#8220;The final release for May will reveal the extent to which the pause on some China tariffs leads consumers to update their expectations,&#8221; Hsu added.
Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped sharply from 6.5% in April to 7.3% in May, the highest reading since November 1981. 
Long-term inflation expectations over the next five years also climbed to 4.6%, up from 4.4%, reaching levels last seen in March 1991.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="531" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-1024x531.png" alt="" class="wp-image-918032" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-1024x531.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-300x156.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-768x399.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-1536x797.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/16102239/image-201-2048x1063.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Markets react: Dollar Rises, Equities Erase Gains</h3>
Investors interpreted the inflation surge as a headwind to future interest rate cuts. 
The U.S. dollar, which had opened weaker, reversed course after the data. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), which tracks the dollar's strength, climbed 0.2% by 10:15 a.m. ET.
Stocks turned mixed as inflation fears resurfaced. 
The S&amp;P 500 erased early gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 both flipped to the red. Only the Nasdaq 100 managed to stay positive, up 0.2% at last check.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45468724/emerging-markets-break-out-as-peace-trades-gain-momentum-hartnett-says">Emerging Markets Break Out As &#8216;Peace Trades&#8217; Gain Momentum, Hartnett Says </a></li>
</ul>
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Consumer Sentiment Crashes To 5-Year Lows As Inflation Fears Reach 1981 Levels

On Thursday, May 15, U.S. markets closed mixed as Cisco rose on strong guidance linked to AI demand, while UnitedHealth fell sharply after reports of a criminal Medicare fraud probe. Amazon and Walmart slipped amid tariff concerns. Investors remain optimistic about potential trade deals, though inflation data stayed soft and companies continue to pull forecasts due to uncertainty.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims held steady at 229,000 for the week ending May 10. April retail sales rose just 0.1%, down from March's revised 1.7% gain. Producer prices fell 0.5% in April, missing expectations for a 0.2% rise.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% to 42,322.75, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.41% to 5,916.93, while the Nasdaq declined 0.18% to 19,112.32.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.01% higher at 37,757.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.56%, ending the session at 8,343.70, led by gains in the Gold, A-REITs, and Metals &amp; Mining sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was down 0.16% at 25,023.70, and Nifty 500 rose 0.38% to 22,874.90.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.40% to 3,367.46, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.46% to 3,889.09.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.46% lower at 23,345.05.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.61%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.80%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 rose 0.70%.</li>
<li>The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.62%.</li>
<li>European stocks rose, capping a strong week driven by upbeat earnings and a U.S.-China trade truce, while low oil prices and soft U.S. data supported global markets and bonds.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.06% at $61.65/bbl, and Brent was up 0.08% at $64.58/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.48% to $3.346.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.41% at $3,212.94, Silver was down 0.81% to $32.423, and Copper fell 1.49% to $4.6145.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.33%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.22%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.22%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.07% to 100.74, USD/JPY was down 0.08% to 145.54, and USD/AUD slid 0.22% to 1.5576.
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Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Advances, Dollar Pressured By Soft US Inflation Data - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the central bank is rethinking its approach to inflation and employment, signaling possible changes to the Fed's policy strategy as part of a major <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">review underway in 2025.</a>
&#8220;Participants have indicated that they thought it would be appropriate to reconsider the language around [labor market] shortfalls,&#8221; Powell said, referring to how the Fed talks about employment in its official strategy. 
Powell also highlighted that &#8220;at our meeting last week, we had a similar take on average inflation targeting,&#8221; hinting that the policy introduced in 2020 may be revised or dropped.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Changing And Why?</h3>
In 2020, the Fed adopted a strategy to let inflation run slightly above 2% after years of staying too low. That policy, known as average inflation targeting, was meant to boost job growth and better support the economy in downturns.
But just months later, inflation surged far beyond the Fed's expectations, hitting a peak of 7.2% in 2022. The Fed had to respond aggressively, raising interest rates by 5.25 percentage points in just 16 months. Now, Powell says the economic landscape has changed and the old approach may no longer fit.
In April 2025, inflation measured by the Fed's preferred gauge—the personal consumption expenditures index—was down to 2.2%.
 That's close to the Fed's goal and, Powell noted, "without the sharp increase in unemployment" that often comes with rate hikes. This success may be pushing the Fed to rethink whether it still needs the average inflation policy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Better Communication In Focus</h3>
Powell also acknowledged that the Fed needs to do a better job explaining its outlook and the risks it sees. He said the central bank is looking at ways to improve how it communicates uncertainty around economic forecasts.
"Clear communication is an issue even in relatively placid times," he said. He added that in today's more volatile world—where shocks happen more often—it&#8217;s even more important to help the public understand that forecasts can change.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Happens Next?</h3>
Powell said the Fed will finish its policy review in the coming months. The updated strategy will replace the one adopted in 2020 and is expected to shape how the Fed responds to future economic challenges.
While some core elements will stay—like the 2% inflation target—others, like the language around employment and inflation overshooting, may be rewritten.
For now, Powell made it clear that anchoring inflation expectations—keeping public confidence that prices will remain stable—is still the Fed's top priority. "We remain fully committed to the 2 percent target today," he said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar Rebounds, Yields Hover Near 5% After Powell Speech</h3>
Markets showed a mixed response to Powell's comments, with the U.S. dollar bouncing back while Treasury yields remained elevated and tech stocks took a breather.
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose to 100.8, trimming earlier losses triggered by weaker-than-expected retail and producer price data <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45435725/tariffs-slow-retail-spending-as-producer-prices-post-sharpest-drop-since-2020">released earlier in the day.</a>
Meanwhile, 30-year Treasury yields briefly touched the 5% threshold, reflecting market expectations that interest rates will remain elevated. Yields later eased slightly to 4.98% as investors digested Powell's remarks on the Fed's evolving policy stance.
Nasdaq 100 futures were flat, stabilizing after a three-day winning streak, as traders weighed the potential implications of a policy framework revision and a slower-than-expected inflation path.
Traders currently assign just an 8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. The likelihood of easing increases further out, with markets fully pricing in a rate cut by September 2025.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"> 
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<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534;WATCH LIVE: Fed Chair Powell &#x7C; Thomas Laubach Research Conference &#x7C; May 15, 2025" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/O9tcyZq4aGU?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45435725/tariffs-slow-retail-spending-as-producer-prices-post-sharpest-drop-since-2020">Tariffs Slow Retail Spending As Producer Prices Post Sharpest Drop Since 2020</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Powell Signals Fed May Shift Inflation Strategy After 5 Years Of Economic Upheaval

April retail sales data showed that the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">round of tariffs</a> announced by President Donald Trump on &#8220;Liberation Day&#8221; started to produce their effects by reducing household consumption.
However, while households reined in spending, inflationary pressures at the producer level unexpectedly contracted in April, notching the biggest decline since April 2020 and highlighting the disinflationary impact of tariffs on input costs across industries.
U.S. retail sales grew only by 0.1% in April from the previous month, a report from the Census Bureau showed Thursday. The outcome marks a sharp reversal from March's upwardly revised 1.7% gain, yet slightly topped economist expectations of no change.
A relevant drag came from motor vehicles and parts which contracted by 0.1%. In March, auto-related sales jumped 5.5% as consumers rushed to buy before tariffs took effect. 
Stripping out autos, retail sales also rose 0.1%, a slowdown from March's 0.8% increase and below the 0.3% consensus. 
When excluding both gasoline and autos, the figure improves slightly to a 0.2% rise, though it still marks a deceleration from March's 1.1% growth.
On an annual basis, April retail sales were up 5.2% from a year earlier, unchanged from March.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs Slash Producer Prices</h3>
The Producer Price Index fell 0.5% month over month, marking the sharpest decline since April 2020. This was a steep reversal from March's flat reading and missed economists&#8217; expectations for a 0.2% increase.
On a year-over-year basis, producer inflation cooled to 2.4%, down from 3.1% in March and undercutting forecasts of 2.5%.
&#8220;The April decline in the index for final demand is attributable to prices for final demand services, which decreased 0.7%,&#8221; the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
More than 40% of April's drop in the final demand services index stemmed from a 6.1% decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. Additional declines were recorded in portfolio management, food and alcohol wholesaling, system software publishing, traveler accommodations, and airline passenger services.
Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, dropped 0.4% on the month, wiping out the previous month's 0.4% gain and coming in well below the 0.3% estimate. 
On an annual basis, core PPI rose 3.1%, easing from 4% in March but in line with consensus.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reaction: Yields Rise, Stocks Slip</h3>
U.S. stock futures pulled back after a three-day rally. By 8:40 a.m. ET, futures on the S&amp;P 500 were down 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – fell to 100.7 levels. 
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45430835/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-after-sp-500s-three-day-winning-streak-many-uncertainties-remain-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After S&amp;P 500&#8217;s Three-Day Winning Streak: &#8216;&#8230;Many Uncertainties Remain,&#8217; Says Expert </a></li>
</ul>
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Tariffs Slow Retail Spending As Producer Prices Post Sharpest Drop Since 2020

On Wednesday, May 14, U.S. markets closed mixed. The S&amp;P 500 closed slightly higher after a quiet session, with investors awaiting economic data following gains earlier in the week tied to easing inflation and a U.S.-China tariff pause.
Tech stocks rose on AI deals in the Middle East, while trade uncertainty and Fed signals kept markets cautious. The Dow slipped, and the Nasdaq advanced.
In economic data, U.S. mortgage applications rose slightly in the week ending May 9, up 1.1% from the previous week, easing after an 11% jump the week before.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell Wednesday, led by losses in health care, materials, and real estate, while tech and communication stocks gained.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.21% to 42,051.06, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.10% to 5,892.58, and the Nasdaq surged 0.71% to 19,146.81.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Thursday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.88% lower at 37,793.00, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.22%, ending the session at 8,297.50, led by gains in the IT, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was up 1.52% at 25,044.25, and Nifty 500 rose 1.24% to 22,777.70.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.68% to 3,380.82, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.91% at 3,907.20.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.79% lower at 23,453.16.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.49%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index declined 0.10%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 fell 0.22%.</li>
<li>The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.08%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 3.71% at $60.81/bbl, and Brent was down 3.50% at $63.81/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices plunged nearly 4% on hopes of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could boost supply, while global stocks paused after a rally driven by trade truce optimism and Middle East deals.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.23% to $3.486.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.34% at $3,177.70, Silver was down 0.64% to $32.230, and Copper fell 0.53% to $4.6263.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.31%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.49%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.67%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.28% to 100.79, USD/JPY was down 0.55% to 145.87, and USD/AUD rose 0.22% to 1.5589.
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Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Slips; Dollar Slides Amid Fed Uncertainty - Global Markets Today While US Slept

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-is-not-negotiating-for-weaker-dollar-as-part-of-tariff-talks">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-is-not-negotiating-for-weaker-dollar-as-part-of-tariff-talks</a>
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'U.S. Not Seeking To Weaken Dollar As Part Of Trade Deals' - Bloomberg

On Tuesday, May 13th, U.S. markets closed mixed; the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher for a second day as cooling April inflation and a U.S.-China trade truce boosted investor confidence. The Dow slipped, weighed down by a steep drop in UnitedHealth shares. Traders expect the Fed to hold off on rate cuts until later this year, as recession concerns eased.
According to economic data, April U.S. inflation came in slightly below expectations, with headline CPI and core CPI rising by 0.2% month-over-month. Year-over-year, CPI slowed to 2.3%, while core CPI held steady at 2.8%, matching forecasts.
Six of the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 11 major sectors ended the day higher, with technology leading the gains. Healthcare was the weakest performer, posting the largest decline.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.64% to 42,140.43, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.72% to 5,886.55, and the Nasdaq surged 1.61% to 19,010.09.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.14% lower at 38,130.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.13%, ending the session at 8,279.60, led by gains in the Energy, IT, and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.32% at 24,658.40, and Nifty 500 rose 0.60% to 22,483.85.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.86% to 3,403.95, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 1.21% to 3,943.21.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 2.30% higher at 23,640.65.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.55%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.41%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 0.64%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.11%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.18% at $62.91/bbl, and Brent was down 1.13% at $65.88/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices dipped as traders anticipated a U.S. inventory build, despite support from a U.S.-China tariff pause and easing demand concerns amid broader geopolitical and trade-related developments.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 1.81% to $3.581.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.26% at $3,239.34, Silver was down 0.44% to $32.953, and Copper fell 0.49% to $4.7000.</li>
<li>Gold prices fell in Asia as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and soft U.S. inflation data reduced safe-haven demand.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.04%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.03%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.63% to 101.35, USD/JPY was down 1.15% to 145.81, and USD/AUD fell 0.20% to 1.5421.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar fell further on Wednesday after weaker April inflation data raised expectations for Fed rate cuts.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Gain, Europe Dips, Dollar Pressured By Soft Inflation Data - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Consumer prices in the U.S. eased faster than expected in April, with fresh tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump appearing not to have a swift and tangible impact on the cost of living. 
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.3% higher compared to a year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, missing economists' expectations of 2.4% and the previous reading. 
The monthly gain was 0.2%, rebounding from a prior decline of 0.1%, yet falling short of a 0.3% forecasted.
The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy categories, rose to 2.8% on an annual basis, unchanged from both the previous and expected 2.8%. Month over month, it increased 0.2%, inching higher from the 0.1% uptick in March but below expectations of 0.3%
Shelter costs rose 0.3% in April, contributing to over half of the total monthly increase in the overall consumer price index.
Airline fares, used vehicles, communication services and apparel were among the key categories that saw price declines in April.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>April 2025</th>
<th>March 2025</th>
<th>Forecast</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Headline CPI (YoY)</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Headline CPI (MoM)</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core CPI (YoY)</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core CPI (MoM)</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Does This Mean For The Fed?</h3>
Before the release, interest rate futures reflected slim odds of policy easing. CME FedWatch data showed just an 8% chance of a rate cut in June, and 36% in July. 
Markets priced in only 60 basis points—0.6 percentage points—of total cuts by the end of 2025, well below earlier expectations for more aggressive easing.
Yet the modest progress is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve toward near-term rate cuts, as markets remain cautious amid persistent inflation risks.
Inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, and with shelter and services inflation proving sticky, policymakers may choose to keep borrowing costs elevated through the second half of the year.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar And Yields Ease Slightly</h3>
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) slightly eased 0.1%, down following Monday's sharp 1.3% rally. The 2-year Treasury yield edged down to 3.98%. 
U.S. stock futures, which had rallied on Monday after news of a U.S.-China tariff truce, were mixed in premarket trading as traders recalibrated inflation and interest rate expectations.
Futures on the S&amp;P 500 index were up 0.2%, while contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%. 
Read now: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45368550/apple-may-up-its-numbers-amid-china-tariff-truce-trump-talks-500-billion-us-investment-after-tim-cook-call">Apple May &#8216;Up Its Numbers&#8217; Amid China Tariff Truce: Trump Talks $500 Billion US Investment After Tim Cook Call</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Inflation Eases In April As Trump's Tariffs Don't Push Prices Higher

On Monday, May 12, U.S. markets closed sharply higher after the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day temporary tariff reduction, easing trade tensions that had escalated since April. The S&amp;P 500 reached its highest level since early March. Investors shifted toward riskier assets, prompting a relief rally, though analysts warned of potential long-term complications.
In economic news, the U.S. government reported a $258 billion budget surplus for April, marking a 23% increase from last year.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher on Monday, led by technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services, while utilities declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.81% to 42,410.10, the S&amp;P 500 gained 3.26% to 5,844.19, and the Nasdaq surged 4.35% to 18,708.34.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Tuesday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.54% higher at 38,224.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.43%, ending the session at 8,269.00, led by gains in the IT, Energy, and Healthcare sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was down 1.42% at 24,567.90, and Nifty 500 fell 0.74% to 22,344.45.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.17% to 3,374.87, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.15% at 3,896.26.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 1.87% lower at 23,108.27.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45368852/trump-lowers-de-minimis-tariff-on-chinese-imports-from-120-to-54-pauses-200-postal-fee-amid-90-day-trade-shift" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Lowers De Minimis Tariff On Chinese Imports From 120% To 54%, Pauses $200 Postal Fee Amid 90-Day Trade Shift</a>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.01%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.02%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 rose 0.05%.</li>
<li>The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.01%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.65% at $62.34/bbl, and Brent was up 0.48% at $65.28/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose, supported by strong fuel demand, though gains were capped by rising OPEC+ supply and uncertainty over the lasting impact of the U.S.-China trade truce.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.93% to $3.680.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.87% at $3,255.44, Silver was up 1.83% to $33.225, and Copper rose 0.80% to $4.6580.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.43%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.26% to 101.56, USD/JPY was down 0.36% to 147.90, and USD/AUD fell 0.60% to 1.5600.</li>
<li>The dollar eased slightly on Tuesday but held most of its gains from the previous session, driven by optimism over the U.S.-China tariff truce.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Trade Mixed Following US-China Tariff Deal Optimism - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The United States and China agreed to slash their retaliatory tariffs by over 100 percentage points, pausing a spiraling trade war that had threatened<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s"> to choke global growth.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's In The Deal?</h3>
The agreement establishes a 90-day reset, slashing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%, starting May 14. 
The decision stems from high-level negotiations in Geneva, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The truce halts one of the steepest protectionist escalations in recent history, following President Donald Trump's aggressive "Liberation Day" trade tariffs launched on April 2.
"We reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels," Bessent said in a press conference. 
"Both countries represented their national interests very well, but we concluded we have shared interest in balanced trade."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariff Truce Cools Recession And Inflation Risks</h3>
The tariff rollback offers more than diplomatic relief — it also addresses growing fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and resurgent inflation. By averting the triple-digit import taxes that threatened to choke global trade, the deal removes a significant source of economic uncertainty that had weighed on business investment and consumer confidence.
Recession probabilities have sharply declined in response. 
The latest market-based forecast from Kalshi shows a 46% chance of a U.S. recession this year, down from 60% at the end of April, reflecting improving sentiment. Notably, consumer spending and corporate earnings had begun showing early signs of strain under the tariff shock imposed in April.
On the inflation front, the agreement is expected to ease price pressures on goods most impacted by the trade war — including electronics, automotive parts and industrial equipment.
Ahead of Tuesday's official April Consumer Price Index report, economists expect a return to monthly inflation growth: headline prices are forecast to rise 0.3%, reversing March's 0.1% dip. Core inflation is also expected to rise 0.3%, while annual inflation rates are seen holding steady at 2.4% for headline and 2.8% for core.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Markets Cheered</h3>
U.S. equity futures soared as the news hit, with futures on the S&amp;P 500 climbing 3.13% to 5,836.66, those on the Nasdaq 100 jumping 4.05%, and Dow futures up 2.62%. 
The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – surged 1.4%, with the greenback rallying 2% against the Japanese yen. 
Meanwhile, 2-year Treasury yields rose 10 basis points to 4%, as traders dialed back expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. The odds of a June cut fell to 11%, down from 25% a week ago, per CME FedWatch.
Gold – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) – dropped 2.9%, with investors rotating out of safe havens, and oil climbed 3.9% to $63.40 amid improving global demand prospects.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Who Wins On Wall Street?</h3>
U.S. equities rallied sharply as investors welcomed the truce between Washington and Beijing. 
Trade-sensitive and consumer-facing stocks led the premarket advance, reflecting relief over lower input costs and reduced supply chain disruption. Technology and industrials also posted notable gains.
Top Gainers – S&amp;P 500
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stanley Black &amp; Decker Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SWK#NYSE">SWK</a>)</td>
<td>+12.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BBY#NYSE">BBY</a>)</td>
<td>+10.42%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Microchip Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCHP#NASDAQ">MCHP</a>)</td>
<td>+9.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEHC#NASDAQ">GEHC</a>)</td>
<td>+8.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NRG#NYSE">NRG</a>)</td>
<td>+8.08%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Top Premarket Gainers – Nasdaq 100
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Microchip Technology Inc.</td>
<td>+9.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEHC#NASDAQ">GEHC</a>)</td>
<td>+8.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>)</td>
<td>+8.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>+8.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ON#NASDAQ">ON</a>)</td>
<td>+8.02%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Top Premarket Losers – S&amp;P 500
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Newmont Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>)</td>
<td>-5.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gilead Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GILD#NASDAQ">GILD</a>)</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABBV#NYSE">ABBV</a>)</td>
<td>-3.58%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>)</td>
<td>-3.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WAB#NYSE">WAB</a>)</td>
<td>-3.17%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling">Apple, Amazon, Nvidia Rise In Monday Premarket As US, China Agree To 90-Day Tariff Truce: &#8216;Neither Side Wants A Decoupling&#8217;</a><span class="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-pan-x: ; --tw-pan-y: ; --tw-pinch-zoom: ; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-gradient-from-position: ; --tw-gradient-via-position: ; --tw-gradient-to-position: ; --tw-ordinal: ; --tw-slashed-zero: ; --tw-numeric-figure: ; --tw-numeric-spacing: ; --tw-numeric-fraction: ; --tw-ring-inset: ; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgba(59,130,246,.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-blur: ; --tw-brightness: ; --tw-contrast: ; --tw-grayscale: ; --tw-hue-rotate: ; --tw-invert: ; --tw-saturate: ; --tw-sepia: ; --tw-drop-shadow: ; --tw-backdrop-blur: ; --tw-backdrop-brightness: ; --tw-backdrop-contrast: ; --tw-backdrop-grayscale: ; --tw-backdrop-hue-rotate: ; --tw-backdrop-invert: ; --tw-backdrop-opacity: ; --tw-backdrop-saturate: ; --tw-backdrop-sepia: ; --tw-contain-size: ; --tw-contain-layout: ; --tw-contain-paint: ; --tw-contain-style: ;"></li>
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Photo: emin kuliyev/Shutterstock

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Wall Street Rips Higher As Tariff Truce Halts US–China Economic Escalation

On Friday, May 9th, U.S. markets closed mixed, as investors focused on Trump&#8217;s call to lower Chinese tariffs ahead of weekend trade talks. While earnings remained strong, concerns over trade tensions and economic risks kept markets subdued. Energy stocks gained, but healthcare lagged, and Fed officials warned of growing tariff-related risks.
According to economic data, U.S. jobless claims dropped by 13,000 to 228,000, beating the 230,000 estimate, while nonfarm labor productivity fell by 0.8%, slightly worse than the expected 0.7% decline.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher Friday, led by real estate, consumer discretionary, and energy. Health care and communication services declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.29% at 41,249.38, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.07% to 5,659.91, and the Nasdaq was almost flat at 17,928.92.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.42% higher at 37,660.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.03%, ending the session at 8,233.50, led by gains in the Energy, Resources, and Metals &amp; Mining sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 3.81% at 24,924.05, and Nifty 500 rose 3.84% to 22,512.15.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 0.82% to 3,369.24, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 1.16% to 3,890.61.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 2.98% higher at 23,549.46.</li>
<li>The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause and mutual tariff cuts, easing fears of further escalation. Stocks and currencies rallied, though some high levies remain and economic risks linger.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple, Amazon, Nvidia Rise In Monday Premarket As U.S., China Agree To 90-Day Tariff Truce: &#8216;Neither Side Wants A Decoupling&#8217;</a>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 1.85%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index gained 1.12%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 1.51%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.42%.</li>
<li>European stocks rose on hopes of a China-U.S. trade deal, oil prices climbed, and UniCredit posted record profits. Meanwhile, markets eyed a likely ECB rate cut in June.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 3.10% at $62.91/bbl, and Brent was up 2.88% at $65.69/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 0.55% to $3.816.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 3.69% at $3,220.96, Silver was down 1.96% to $32.265, and Copper rose 0.11% to $4.6570.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 2.20%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 2.82%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 3.80%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. dollar index gained 1.31% to 101.66, the USD/JPY rose 1.89% to 148.11, and the USD/AUD rose 0.25% to 1.5635.</li>
<li>The dollar jumped to a one-month high after a U.S.-China tariff truce boosted investor confidence, lifting it sharply against the yen and Swiss franc. Easing geopolitical tensions and optimism over further trade talks also supported gains.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Advance On China-US Tariff Pause, Oil Gains 3% - Global Markets Today While US Slept

After a trade-induced slowdown bruised the economy in early 2025 and with another dip forecast for this coming fall, Wells Fargo says the Federal Reserve is poised to cut rates aggressively amid <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">deteriorating labor market conditions. </a>
In an outlook shared this week, the investment bank&#8217;s economic team updated its U.S. outlook and reaffirmed that while a full-blown recession may still be avoided, a period of painful stagnation and elevated inflation lies directly ahead.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">&#8216;Trade War Impact Is Just Getting Started&#8217;</h3>
The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter, largely due to a massive swing in trade flows. Net exports subtracted 4.8 percentage points from GDP, the largest drag on trade in over five decades.
Import volumes surged 41.3% on an annualized basis as businesses rushed to stockpile goods before tariffs kicked in on April 2. That front-loading of demand distorted the early-year data. 
Yet, &#8220;the economy is not out of the woods yet,&#8221; the report noted. 
According to Wells Fargo, after a growth rebound in the second quarter, the economy is expected to contract 1.5% in the third quarter. 
&#8220;We anticipate some stomach-turning turbulence this year, particularly in the third quarter,&#8221; the bank said. 
Wells Fargo indicated that the economy will hit an &#8220;air pocket&#8221; later this year as consumer and business spending drop off after a rush to buy goods ahead of new tariffs.
The effective tariff rate is estimated at 15%, well above the pre-tariff 2.3% average. Wells Fargo is not expecting a return to those lower levels anytime soon—even if some dealmaking reduces headline rates.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Jobs: Hiring Slows, Layoffs Loom</h3>
Job creation is cooling. After averaging 133,000 monthly payroll additions in the first quarter, hiring is expected to nearly stall later this year. 
The bank expects nonfarm payrolls to slow to an average of 25,000 in the third quarter and then turn negative by 17,000 during the last quarter of the year.
Initial jobless claims rose to 241,000 in late April, the second-highest print in six months. Continued claims have been trending up since 2022. 
Wells Fargo forecasts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% by the end of the year. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Fed Will Step In</h3>
Despite inflation remaining above target, Wells Fargo expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates as labor market conditions deteriorate. The baseline projection includes a 100 basis point cut in 2025, starting with a 50 basis point reduction in September, followed by two quarter-point moves.
The bank forecasts the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.50%, down from the current 4.50% upper bound. The key assumption is that the Fed will "look through" the tariff-driven uptick in inflation as long as longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored.
Such a projection is well below current market pricing, which expects about 65 basis points of cumulative easing through December 2025.
In 2026, Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold steady as growth rebounds and inflation settles closer to target. The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to end 2025 at 4.00% and rise modestly to 4.25% by the end of 2026.
&#8220;The second half of this year could be the most challenging period for the greenback, a period during which the U.S. economy slows to a stall and the Fed eases monetary policy,&#8221; Wells Fargo said. 
The U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), is down 7.5% year-to-date.
Economists at the U.S. investment bank expected the dollar to rebound in 2026 as rising fiscal stimulus boosts domestic activity and as the Fed ends its easing phase.
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</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Wells Fargo Sees Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts As 'Stomach-Turning' Turbulence For Economy Looms

On Thursday, May 8th, U.S. markets closed higher after a new trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. lowered tariffs and secured major Boeing orders, boosting airline and industrial shares. Investors were further encouraged by Trump's hints at meaningful China talks.
Markets rose broadly, with small-cap and semiconductor stocks gaining despite ongoing concerns over inflation and the labor market.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000 last week, beating estimates of 230,000. Labor productivity dropped 0.8% in Q1, more than the expected 0.7% decline.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose on Thursday, led by industrials, consumer discretionary, and energy, while health care and utilities closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.62% at 41,368.45, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.58% to 5,663.94, and the Nasdaq rose 1.07% to 17,928.14.
Asia Markets Today
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 1.51% higher at 37,485.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.48%, ending the session at 8,231.20, led by gains in the IT, Financials, and Consumer Staples sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was down 1.14% at 23,996.65, and Nifty 500 fell 0.84% to 21,662.20.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite declined 0.30% to 3,342.00, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was down 0.17% at 3,846.16.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.40% higher at 22,867.74.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.40%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.58%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 rose 0.67%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.46%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.72% at $60.93/bbl, and Brent was up 1.59% at $63.84/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose, heading for weekly gains, as U.S.-China trade tensions eased and Britain reached a trade deal. OPEC+ output shifts and Iran sanctions added supply pressures.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 1.56% to $3.648.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.72% at $3,329.81, Silver was up 0.49% to $32.775, and Copper fell 0.02% to $4.6030.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.08%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.20%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.22% to 100.42, USD/JPY was down 0.45% to 145.21, and USD/AUD slid 0.01% to 1.5626.</li>
<li>The dollar rose this week on U.S.-China trade hopes and fewer Fed rate cut bets, while the euro, yen, and sterling slipped; bitcoin and Asian currencies surged.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Eurozone Gains; Oil Rises On Trade Deal Hopes - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Bank of America is doubling down on its call that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in 2025, underscoring the central bank's growing discomfort with a dual threat of rising inflation and unemployment revealed at <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">this week's policy meeting.</a>
In a note shared Thursday, BofA economist Aditya Bhave said the key takeaway from the May Federal Open Market Committee meeting was "an upgrade to the Fed&#8217;s assessment of economic uncertainty." 
Bhave referred to two new lines in the Fed's statement: first, that uncertainty "has increased further," and second, "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hawkish Tilt As Fed Acknowledges Stagflation Risks</h3>
While the Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Jerome Powell's press conference took a cautious, hawkish tone compared to March.
Powell repeatedly emphasized the central bank's comfort with staying on hold and made clear that the Fed would not act preemptively—unlike in 2019 when it delivered three rate cuts as inflation was running well below target.
That's not the case today. Core inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for four straight years, giving policymakers far less room to maneuver. 
Bhave said Powell's message was clear: "Uncertainty is high, and the Fed is comfortable staying on hold until there is greater clarity."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Higher Bar For Cuts, Markets Start To Adjust</h3>
According to Bhave, this approach means the hurdle for a June cut is now significantly higher. 
Market expectations have already begun to reflect that shift. 
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a June rate cut tumbled to 16% on Thursday &#8211; down from 28% before Powell's remarks. The chances of a July move are 65%, down from 92% a week ago.
BofA's base case assumes a steady labor market paired with renewed inflationary pressures—conditions that effectively rule out any Fed rate cuts.
"If our base case of a steady labor market and rising inflation is correct, we don&#8217;t see a path to cuts in 2025," Bhave said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Implications For Markets</h3>
BofA rate strategist Mark Cabana said front-end Treasury yields could move higher as investors increasingly price out near-term rate cuts. He also recommends staying underweight in longer-dated Treasuries, where issuance—particularly in the 30-year tenor—continues to exceed demand.
BofA maintains a broadly bearish stance on the U.S. dollar despite adopting a more hawkish-than-consensus view on the rate outlook. Cabana said the dollar remains "notably dislocated from short-term rate differentials," and that this misalignment is unlikely to correct through subtle shifts in Fed language alone.
"We remain broadly dollar-bearish, and negative sentiment more broadly has increased over the past month, with many re-thinking broader allocations to U.S. assets and/or FX hedges," the investment bank said.
The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – has fallen 8% year-to-date, on track for its worst year since 2017. 
 Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45269703/stagflation-emerges-as-key-economic-risk-to-federal-reserve-policy-economists-warn">Stagflation Emerges As Key Risk To Fed Policy, Economists Warn: &#8216;We&#8217;re Grappling With A Rare Trifecta&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Forget Rate Cuts This Year, Bank Of America Warns After Powell's Hawkish Tone

The Federal Reserve kept its fed funds rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, a widely expected move that marks the third consecutive <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">pause in interest-rate policy. </a>
"Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further," the Fed noted in its post-meeting statement. 
The May meeting was the first since President Donald Trump's early April announcement of new trade tariffs.
The Federal Reserve noted that recent indicators point to continued solid growth in economic activity, while hinting that volatility in net exports has distorted the data, a reference to the negative GDP reading in the first quarter.
Yet, the Committee emphasized that "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen," introducing this new language into the May policy statement.
The Fed reiterated its data-dependent stance, emphasizing that future policy actions will be assessed "meeting by meeting," based on economic data, the evolving outlook, and balance of risks. This measured approach suggests that policymakers remain flexible in their response to shifting economic conditions.
Attention now turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to hold his presser at 2:30 p.m. ET. Powell is expected to field questions on the implications of the Trump tariffs, recession risks, inflation trajectory, and the growing political pressure from Trump, who has publicly called for lower interest rates.
Read also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45258146/all-eyes-on-powell-what-betting-markets-expect-him-to-say-wednesday">All Eyes On Powell: What Betting Markets Expect Him To Say Wednesday</a>
Leading into the decision, futures markets were pricing in a 28% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the June meeting, rising to 73% by July. Traders currently anticipate approximately 65 basis points of easing by the end of 2025, equivalent to nearly three standard rate cuts.
Minutes prior to the Fed statement, speaking at the swearing-in ceremony for the new U.S. ambassador to China, President Trump said he has no intention of rolling back the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and is not seeking a broad range of tariff exemptions.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market reactions </h3>
Stocks remained broadly unchanged minutes after the Federal Open Market Committee statement. 
The S&amp;P 500 index – as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – was trading at 5,608 points, flat on the day. 
The U.S. dollar index – followed by the  Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – fell slightly.
Treasury yields trended lower, with yields on the 10-year Treasury note falling from 4.29% to 4.26%. 
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45224205/will-powell-defy-trump-again-heres-what-the-fed-chair-might-say-on-wednesday">Will Powell Defy Trump Again? Here&#8217;s What The Fed Chair Might Say On Wednesday</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: RozenskiP / Shutterstock.com

Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Warns Of Rising 'Uncertainty About The Economic Outlook'

On Tuesday, May 6th, U.S. markets closed lower, as Trump's tariff uncertainty shook investor confidence, prompting companies like Ford and Mattel to withdraw forecasts. Major indexes fell, with Palantir, Clorox, and DoorDash among the notable losers.
Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, as inflation concerns and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment.
In economic data, the trade deficit hit $140.5 billion, rising 14% from February as imports surged 4.4% to $419 billion, mainly due to higher consumer goods.
Nine of eleven S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by healthcare and consumer discretionary, while utilities and energy posted small gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.95% at 40,829.00, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.77% to 5,606.91, and the Nasdaq slid 0.87% to 17,689.66.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.20% lower at 36,755.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.33%, ending the session at 8,178.30, led by gains in the Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was up 0.10% at 24,405.05, and Nifty 500 rose 0.54% to 22,075.70.</li>
<li>China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.80% to 3,342.67, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.61% at 3,831.63.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed the session 0.13% higher at 22,691.88.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.37%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index declined 0.17%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 slid 0.68%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.38%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.56% at $59.40/bbl, and Brent was up 0.37% at $62.39/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 3.87% to $3.597.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 1.16% at $3,383209, Silver was down 1.22% to $32.970, and Copper fell 1.54% to $4.7030.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.53%, S&amp;P 500 futures gained 0.57%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.59%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.12% to 99.40, USD/JPY was up 0.47% to 143.22, and USD/AUD rose 0.36% to 1.5452.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Gain, Europe Slides And Gold Retreats - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Monday, May 5th, U.S. markets closed lower, ending their winning streaks, as markets reacted to Trump&#8217;s tariff on foreign films. Energy stocks lagged, Berkshire Hathaway stumbled after Buffett&#8217;s exit news, and Netflix, Amazon, and Paramount saw losses. Investors are now focused on the upcoming Fed decision amid rising inflation concerns and profit risks.
According to economic data, the ISM services PMI climbed to 51.6 in April, up from March&#8217;s nine-month low of 50.8, beating market expectations of 50.6.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by energy, consumer discretionary, and tech, while consumer staples edged higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.24% at 41,218.83, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.64% to 5,650.38, and the Nasdaq slid 0.74% to 17,844.24.
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45214594/hollywood-tariff-push-sparked-by-trump-jon-voight-meeting-where-actor-proposed-levies-in-certain-limited-circumst" rel="noreferrer noopener">Hollywood Tariff Push Sparked By Trump-Jon Voight Meeting Where Actor Proposed Levies In &#8216;Certain Limited Circumstances:&#8217; Report</a>
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>Japan&#8217;s market closed for the Greenery Day holiday.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.08%, ending the session at 8,151.40, led by losses in the Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Financials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.28% at 24,391.85, and Nifty 500 fell 1.03% to 24,391.85.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite gained 1.13% to 3,316.11, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 1.01% to 3,808.54.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.70% higher at 22,662.71.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.90%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 1.22%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC 40 slid 0.70%.</li>
<li>The U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.18%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.89% at $58.78/bbl, and Brent was up 2.86% at $61.95/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil rebounded after six declines, lifted by bargain hunting, China&#8217;s return, and technical factors, despite lingering concerns over rising OPEC+ supply and global demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 1.97% to $3.621.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 2.06% at $3,390.89, Silver was up 2.47% to $33.275, and Copper rose 0.04% to $4.7013.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.70%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.81%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.12%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.02% to 99.97, USD/JPY was down 0.26% to 143.31, and USD/AUD gained 0.36% to 1.5515.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar slipped as investors grew cautious over Trump&#8217;s trade policies and awaited the Fed decision.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Slips, Gold Nears $3,400 Again - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. services sector grew at its slowest pace in over 17 months in April, while inflationary pressures surged to an over two-year high, highlighting a troubling combination of weakening demand and rising costs fueled by trade tariff disruptions that could complicate the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Federal Reserve's path forward.</a>
According to data released Monday by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged up from 50.8% in March to 51.6% in April, slightly above economists&#8217; expectations of 50.6. While this reading suggests continued growth, it&#8217;s the slowest expansion in activity since late 2023.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Pricing Pressures Intensify Despite Tepid Growth</h3>
ISM's subindex for prices paid, a key inflation gauge, jumped sharply from 60.9% in March to 65.1% in April, reaching the highest level since February 2023. 
This spike reflects intensifying cost pressures across the service economy, driven partly by rising import prices and the pass-through effects of tariffs.
&#8220;Regarding tariffs, respondents cited actual pricing impacts as concerns, more so than uncertainty and future pressures," said Steve Miller, chair of ISM's Services Business Survey Committee.
 "Respondents continue to mention federal agency budget cuts as a drag on business, but overall, results are improving."
The index for new orders rose from 50.4% to 52.3%, while the employment component climbed from 46.2% to 49% — still signaling contraction, but a less severe one.
 Business activity, however, moderated from 55.9 to 53.7, its softest growth pace since January, though it still marked the 59th consecutive month of expansion.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">S&amp;P Global Flags Stalling Momentum, Stagflation Risks</h3>
S&amp;P Global&#8217;s separate reading on the U.S. services sector painted a less optimistic picture. 
The firm downwardly revised its final Services PMI for April from a preliminary estimates of 51.4 points to 50.8 points, a steep decline from March&#8217;s 54.4 and the lowest since November 2022.
"While tariff announcements mean manufacturing dominates the news, a worrying backstory is developing in the vastly larger services economy," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global. 
"Business activity and hiring have come closer to stalling in April amid plunging business confidence."
Williamson indicated that services exports are falling at their fastest rate since 2022, while domestic demand appears to be softening. 
He added that tariffs are pushing up input costs, especially in consumer-facing sectors like restaurants and hospitality, and warned of the growing threat of stagflation, a toxic mix of stagnant growth and rising inflation.
S&amp;P Global's Composite PMI, which blends manufacturing and services activity to gauge overall private-sector performance, was also revised down from 51.2 to 50.6 in April. 
That marked the weakest expansion since December 2023 and brought the index dangerously close to the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks remained broadly unaltered following the PMI releases. 
The S&amp;P 500 index held losses of 0.5%, trading at 5,655 points by 10:20 a.m. ET, potentially ending a 9-day winning streak. The Nasdaq 100 — as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) — slipped 0.7%, dipping below the 20,000 mark, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed earlier losses to trade down 0.2%.
Within the S&amp;P 500, United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) and EQT Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQT#NYSE">EQT</a>) were top gainers, each up around 3%. 
On the downside, Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZBH#NYSE">ZBH</a>), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSN#NYSE">TSN</a>) and ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ON#NASDAQ">ON</a>) were among the steepest losers, all sliding roughly 9% on the session.
The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – trimmed losses after the PMI reports, as higher price pressures led traders to scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.35%.
According to CME Group FedWatch, now there is only a 29% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by June, down from 35% on Friday.
Read now: 
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</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Services Activity Barely Expands In April As Price Pressures Spike To Over 2-Year Highs: 'A Worrying Backstory Is Developing'

On Friday, May 2nd, U.S. markets closed higher, as strong U.S. jobs data and signs of U.S.-China tariff talks boosted risk appetite. The S&amp;P 500 marked its longest winning streak in over 20 years. While megacap tech stocks cooled, financials and chipmakers outperformed. Treasury yields surged, and European markets closed higher on revived trade hopes.
In economic data, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 177,000, beating forecasts and easing tariff worries, while the jobless rate held at 4.2%. March factory orders jumped 4.3% to $618.8 billion.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose Friday, led by financials, communication services, and industrials, while healthcare and consumer staples fell.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.39% to 41,317.43, the S&amp;P 500 gained 1.47% to 5,686.67, while the Nasdaq gained 1.51% to 17,977.73.
Asia Markets Today
<ul>
<li>Japan's market closed for the Children's Day holiday.</li>
<li>On Monday, Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 declined 0.97%, ending the session at 8,157.80, which was led by losses in the energy, financials, and telecoms services sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 was up 0.48% at 24,463.40, and Nifty 500 rose 0.89% to 22,201.65.</li>
<li>China markets closed for the Labour Day holiday.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.30%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX index gained 0.60%.</li>
<li>France's CAC 40 slid 0.53%.</li>
<li>The U.K. market closed for the Bank Holiday.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.49% at $57.43/bbl, and Brent was down 1.39% at $60.44/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices dropped as OPEC+ agreed to accelerate production hikes, raising concerns about oversupply and weakening demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas gained 1.60% to $3688.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 2.16% at $3,313.89, Silver was up 1.03% to $32.588, and Copper rose 1.63% to $4.7487.</li>
</ul>
U.S. Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.67%, S&amp;P 500 futures declined 0.78% and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.91%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.36% to 99.68, USD/JPY was down 0.72% to 143.91, and USD/AUD declined 0.73% to 1.5404.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar weakened as the Taiwan dollar surged, fueling Asian currency speculation. Despite strong jobs data, Fed rate cut bets shifted to July, while Europe's currencies edged higher.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Mixed, Gold Gains, Oil Slides On OPEC+ Output Hike - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. labor market showed signs of strength in April, with hiring momentum topping estimates despite the impact of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">trade tariffs across industries.</a>
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 last month, slightly down from a downwardly revised 185,000 in March, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
The outcome surpassed both economist forecasts for a 130,000 gain and betting markets – tracked by CFTC-regulated platform Kalshi – which had priced in a 90,000 increase.
In April, employment continued to rise across several sectors, including health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance, while federal government jobs declined.
The health care sector added 51,000 jobs—closely in line with its 12-month average of 52,000. Notable increases were seen in hospitals, up 22,000, and ambulatory health care services, up 21,000.
Transportation and warehousing employment rose by 29,000, rebounding from a modest gain of 3,000 in March. Within the sector, job growth was concentrated in warehousing and storage, up 10,000, couriers and messengers, up 8,000, and air transportation, up 3,000. 
Federal government employment declined by 9,000, reflecting rising layoffs amid reforms led by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, as expected. 
Wage growth lost some momentum. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% on the month, down from both the prior and expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, wages were up 3.8%, steady from March but slightly below the forecasted 3.9%.
Ahead of the April jobs report, money markets had priced in a 58% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's June meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Indicator</th>
<th>April 2025</th>
<th>March 2025 </th>
<th>Forecast</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Nonfarm Payrolls</td>
<td>177,000</td>
<td>185,000 (downwardly revised from )</td>
<td>130,000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM)</td>
<td>+0.2%</td>
<td>+0.3%</td>
<td>+0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Avg. Hourly Earnings (YoY)</td>
<td>+3.8%</td>
<td>+3.8%</td>
<td>+3.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions </h3>
The stronger-than-expected jobs data pushed the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher and boosted gains across major equity indices.
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), trimmed session losses, down 0.2% by 8:35 a.m. ET. 
Treasury yields also rose, with the 2-year yield—often seen as a proxy for near-term rate expectations—rising 3 basis points to 3.74%.
S&amp;P 500 futures were up 0.7%, while tech stocks rose 0.8%. On Thursday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed 0.7% higher, marking its eighth consecutive session of gains.
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</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

April Jobs Blow Past Expectations, But Tariff Storm May Be Brewing

3月17日（月）、景気指標が発表された結果、株式市場は上昇で取引を終えた。数週にわたる下落の後、投資家は打撃を受けた株を買い増しを始めた。米国ではニューヨークの製造業の活動が急速に減少し、関税の上昇によるコストが原因で住宅建設業者の景気後退は明らかである。
投資家たちのマーケットの注目は、金曜日に予定されている連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の会合である。金利はこの会合で据え置かれると予想されている。
経済指標によると、2月における米国の小売売上高は予想を下回る0.2%増。この結果は、新たに発表された米国の製造業指数が-20.0にまで下がり、2023年5月以来の最低水準。住宅建設業者の信頼感も2月の42から3月の39に減少。
月曜日、株式市場のS&amp;P500のほとんどのセクターが上昇し、不動産、エネルギー、および日用品関連株は上昇し、一方で、消費関連株は下落。
ダウ平均株価は0.85％上昇し、4万1841.63ドルで取引を終了した。S&amp;P 500は0.64％上昇の5,675.12ドルで取引を終え、ナスダック総合株価指数も0.31％増の17,808.66ドルで終了した。
本日のアジア市場
<ul>
<li>火曜日、日経225株価指数は1.24％上昇し、3万7859.00ポイントで取引を終了した。上昇は、電力、ゴム・化学、石油・プラスチックセクター。</li>
<li>S&amp;P/ASX 200指数は0.08％上昇し、7,860.40ドルで取引を終了。公共関連、ゴールド、A-REITsセクターが上昇。</li>
<li>インドのNifty 50は1.29％上昇し、22,800.35で取引を終了。Nifty 500は1.66％上昇の20,624.05。</li>
<li>上海総合指数は0.11％減の3,429.76で、CSI300は0.27％上昇の4,007.72で取引を終了。</li>
<li>香港のハンセン指数は2.46％急伸し、24,740.57で取引を終了した。</li>
</ul>
05:45ETのユーロ圏市場
<ul>
<li>欧州STOXX 50は0.93%上昇。</li>
<li>ドイツのダックスは1.32%上昇。</li>
<li>フランスのCACは0.64%上昇。</li>
<li>英国のFTSE 100指数は0.50%上昇。</li>
</ul>
05:45ETの商品市場
<ul>
<li>WTI原油はバレルあたり68.35ドルで1.48%上昇、ブレンド原油はバレルあたり1.36%上昇の72.04ドルでの推移。</li>
<li>中東の緊張と中国の景気刺激策により、原油価格は上昇した。しかし、世界経済成長の懸念、米国の関税、ウクライナの停戦不透明さから、これらの上昇は限定的。</li>
<li>天然ガスはバレルあたり3.980ドルで0.95％減少。</li>
<li>金は史上最高値の1オンス3,037ドルを更新。執筆時点では、1オンスで0.82％上昇の3,030.46ドル、銀は1.32％上昇の34.763ドル、銅は0.41％上昇の4.9795ドルで取引を終えている。</li>
</ul>
05:45ETの米国先物市場
ダウ先物は0.02％下落、S&amp;P500先物は0.02％下落、ナスダック100先物は0.10％下落。
05:45ETの外国為替市場
<ul>
<li>米ドル指数は0.08％下落のの103.33、米ドル/円は0.40％上昇の149.81、米ドル/豪ドルは0.01％上昇の1.5664での推移。</li>
<li>FRBの会合を控え、米ドルは下落し、一方でドイツの景気刺激策による期待を前に、ユーロは上昇した。日本銀行による政策決定を前に、円は売られ、中国の人民元は横ばいの動きを見せた。</li>
</ul>
以上
提供：シャッターストック

3月13日（木）の米国市場は大幅下落で取引を終了、米国のインフレデータが好調にもかかわらず新たな関税が明らかになったことでS&amp;P500は<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44317410/sp-500-enters-technical-correction-as-trade-war-fears-rattle-markets" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">調整</a>に入った。
投資家感情は悪化しているが、PPI(生産者物価指数)とCPI(消費者物価指数)が予想よりも落ち着いており、失業保険申請件数も微減で労働市場は強いままだった。主要な株価指数の下落材料は、「マグニフィセント・セブン」をはじめとした大手ハイテク株の大量の売り越しだった。欧州が米国の鉄鋼やアルミに対する報復関税で貿易摩擦の緊張が高まっている。
経済データでは、2月の米国の生産者物価は横ばいで1月の改定値０．6％増の後、予想の０．3％増を下回った。失業保険申請件数は2,000件減の22万件で予想の22万5000件を下回る結果だった。
S&amp;P 500のほとんどのセクターは軒並み値を下げたが、公共事業セクターの銘柄の中には上昇しているものもあった。
ダウ平均は1.30％安の40,813.57、S&amp;P500は1.39％安の5,521.52、ナスダックは1.96％安の17,303.01で取引終了。
本日のアジア市場の動向
<ul>
<li>日経225は、電力、ゴム・化学、石油・プラスチックが値を上げ、0.72％上昇し、終値は37,053.10。</li>
<li>オーストラリアのS&amp;P/ASX200は0.52％上昇し、終値は7,789.70。</li>
<li>インド市場はホーリー祭の休日のため休場。</li>
<li>上海総合指数は1.81％上昇し、終値は3,419.56。CSI300は2.43％上昇、終値は4,006.56。</li>
<li>ハンセン指数は2.12％上昇し、終値は23,959.98。</li>
<li>中国株は、月曜日の中国の政府高官の記者会見を控え、人民銀行の流動性対策や消費刺激策などの新たな政策の期待感から上昇した。</li>
</ul>
ユーロ圏の05:45AM(ET)
<ul>
<li>ユーロ・ストックス50は0.60％上昇。</li>
<li>ドイツのDAXは0.55％上昇。</li>
<li>フランスのCACは0.65％上昇。</li>
<li>イギリスのFTSE100指数は0.41％上昇。</li>
</ul>
05:45AM(ET)現在の商品
WTI原油は1.01％上昇し、1バレル67.21ドルで取引されており、Brentは0.90％上昇の1バレル70.51。
ロシアの原油供給の削減とウクライナとの即時停戦の希望が薄れたことで、原油価格が急騰。
天然ガスは0.63％下落し、1発4.085ドルでの取引。
金は1.36％上昇し、1オンス34.773ドル、銀は0.66％上昇し、1オンス3010.96ドル、銅は0.04％上昇し、1ポンドあたり4.9270ドルでの取引。
貿易戦争の緊張感の高まりと、利上げ予想により、金相場は高値更新が続いている。また、ETFの流入やFRBの政策の見通しが引き続き投資家の感情を後押ししている。
05:45AM(ET)時点の米国先物
ダウ先物は0.54％上昇、S&amp;P500先物は0.76％上昇、ナスダック100先物は1.00％上昇。
05:45AM(ET)時点の外国為替
米ドル指数(DXY)は0.08％上昇の103.92、米ドル/円は0.076％上昇の148.93、米ドル/豪ドルは0.34％減の1.5860での取引。
米ドルの相対的な弱さが一部の通貨にプレッシャーをかけた。　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　以上

2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/fomc">連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合</a>と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。
このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。
2024年第1四半期の3ヶ月間にわたり期待を上回るインフレ率の読書が続いたが、4月のデータは物価<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38842603/us-inflation-falls-as-expected-in-april-bolsters-fed-rate-cut-bets">プレッシャーが緩和され、予測に合致した。</a>
このためCPIデータは、インフレ率が続く低下傾向を示しているのかどうかを確認する上で極めて重要だ。これがあれば、連邦準備制度理事会の2％の物価目標を達成する希望を支えることになる。
このため、水曜日午前8時30分に労働統計局から発表される5月のインフレ報告書の重要性が増している。
5月のインフレ報告書の結果は、同日のプレスカンファレンス中に行われるジェローム・パウエル（Jerome Powell）議長の声明にも大きな影響を与えるだろう。
柔らかいインフレ率の読書は、今年の後半に利上げが行われる可能性を補強する一方、予想を上回るインフレ率はより積極的なアプローチを必要とし、おそらく長期間金利を高めに維持する必要があることを繰り返す可能性がある。
市場参加者は現在、9月の利上げの可能性を50-50で見積もっており、年末までに完全に価格が大きく下落することを期待していない。
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39252500/fed-meeting-preview-economists-predict-steady-rates-in-june-fewer-cuts-ahead">Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5月のインフレ報告書のプレビュー：経済学者の予想</h3>
<ul>
<li>Econodayが収集した経済学者の予想によると、全体の見出しの年間インフレ率は3.4％で横ばいになると予想されている。</li>
<li>総合的なCPIは、4月の0.3％の上昇から0.1％上昇すると予想されている。</li>
<li>食品およびエネルギー価格の変動を除いた年間のインフレ率は、0.3％の月次の上昇と、4月から変わらない3.6％で推移すると予想されている。</li>
</ul>
ゴールドマンサックスのエコノミスト マヌエル・アベカシス氏は、コンシューマーエレクトロニクスやパーソナルケアなどの分野でのインフレ率の低下が報告されると予想しており、5月のデータに反映されるという見方だ。彼はまた、自動車保険料の持続的な上昇も予測しているが、ペースは徐々に遅くなり、家賃やオーナーの同等の家賃（OER）のインフレ率は横ばいで推移すると予想している。
アベカシス氏は、「今後、2024年の終わりまでの数ヶ月間、月次コアCPIインフレ率は0.2〜0.3％の範囲内に留まると予想している。 2024年12月の年間コアCPIインフレ率は3.5％、コアPCEインフレ率は2.8％と予測している」と述べた。
著名なベテラン市場アナリストのエド・ヤーデニ氏は、5月のCPI報告書が依然としてインフレが抑制されていることを確認すると見ている。
「クリーブランド連銀のインフレ・ナウキャスティング・モデルによると、5月のヘッドラインおよびコアCPIは、前年比でそれぞれ3.36％および3.55％上昇し、これは2021年4月以来の最低の年間コアインフレ率読書となる」とYardeni氏は述べている。
ヤーデニ氏は、住居のインフレ率と中古車の価格の低下を予想しており、自動車関連の他の消費者価格が安定することを期待している。
米国銀行の経済学者マイケル・ゲープン氏は、5月の報告書が4月の好調な推移を継続すると見ている。
ゲープン氏は、「1月から3月までの月次コアCPIインフレ率が0.4％と平均した後、4月には方向性が変わった。 我々は5月のコアCPIとヘッドラインCPIがそれぞれ0.3％と0.1％の上昇となり、年間インフレ率はそれぞれ4.6％と34％で4月と同じになると予想している」とゲープン氏は語った。
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">過去のCPI報告書に対する市場の反応</h3>
2024年5月15日にCPI報告書が発表され、これは、株式、債券、金、および投機的資産を巡る株式市場の反発を引き起こした。
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500は、この日に SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）で1.2％上昇した。</li>
<li>テクヘビーなナスダック100は、 Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）で1.6％上昇した。</li>
<li>長期国債利回りは下がり、 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>）は1.4％上昇した。</li>
<li>金は SPDR Gold Trust（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）で1.3％上昇した。</li>
<li>ビットコイン（CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は7.4％上昇し、2か月間で最高の1日となり、今年の最高の3番目の読書を記録した。</li>
<li>Invesco DB USDインデックスブリッシュファンドETF（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>）がドルの指標として下落し、0.7％下がり、2023年12月中旬以来の最悪の1日の性能を記録した。</li>
</ul>

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