Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (ARCA: UUP)

最新ニュース Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (ARCA:UUP)

PowerShares DB USD Index Bullish

The fund invests in futures contracts in an attempt to track its index. The index is calculated to reflect the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of long positions in DX Contracts.

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Invesco Government & Agency Portfolio

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

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3月17日（月）、景気指標が発表された結果、株式市場は上昇で取引を終えた。数週にわたる損失の後、投資家は打撃を受けた株を買い増しし始めた。米国ではニューヨークの製造業の活動が急速に減少し、関税の上昇によるコストが原因で住宅建設業者の景気後退は明らかである。

アジアとヨーロッパ市場が上昇、金が高値更新 - 米国が眠っている間の本日のグローバル市場

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3月13日（木）の米国市場は大幅下落で取引を終了、米国のインフレデータが好調にもかかわらず新たな関税が明らかになったことでS&amp;P500は調整に入った。

今日のグローバル市場⁻アジアとヨーロッパ市場は上昇、金は3,000ドル

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2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。

消費者物価指数がFOMCで異例の報告

Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF

On Monday, June 30, U.S. markets closed higher, boosted by optimism over trade deals and possible rate cuts. Despite this strong finish, concerns about tariffs and fiscal policy weighed on overall performance. Investors reacted to soft economic data and shifting central bank expectations, while portfolio adjustments and rising bank stocks added momentum. Still, some analysts warned the rally may not last amid mounting economic and policy uncertainty.
In economic data, the Chicago PMI edged down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, below the expected 42.7. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed&#8217;s business activity index for Texas manufacturing rose to -12.7 from -15.3, signaling a slight improvement despite ongoing contraction.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher on Monday, led by tech, financials, and real estate, while energy and consumer discretionary declined.
The Dow rose 0.63% to 44,094.77, the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.52% at 6,204.95, and the Nasdaq gained 0.47% to 20,369.73.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 1.43% lower at 39,908.00, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport, and Communication sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.01% at 8,541.10, led by losses in the Industrials, Telecoms Services, and Materials sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.14% at 25,552.05, and the Nifty 500 rose 0.03% to 23,625.30.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.39% at 3,457.75, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.17% to 3,942.76.
The Hong Kong market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day holiday.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.52%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.70%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 0.62%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.26%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.17% at $65.00/bbl, and Brent was down 0.16% at $66.63/bbl.
Oil prices held steady as investors weighed expectations of an OPEC+ output hike in August and ongoing trade negotiations.
Natural gas fell 1.30% to $3.411.
Gold traded higher by 1.56% to $3,359.40, Silver rose 1.81% to $36.500, and Copper gained 1.40% to $5.1455.
Gold prices rose on safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainty and a weaker dollar as investors braced for Trump&#8217;s tariff deadline. Broader metal markets also gained on improved sentiment and China data.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures fell 0.13%, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.24%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.30%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.34% to 96.46, USD/JPY was down 0.78% to 142.91, and USD/AUD slid 0.07% to 1.5185.
The U.S. dollar fell, hit by fiscal concerns, trade uncertainty, and expectations of faster Fed rate cuts. Trump&#8217;s criticism of the Fed added pressure while investors await key U.S. data.
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Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Slips, Dollar Weakens Further As Tariff Deadline Looms - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Friday, June 27, U.S. markets closed higher, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs amid optimism over trade deals and expected Fed rate cuts. Despite U.S.-Canada tensions, investor momentum remained strong, particularly in tech stocks. Economic data showed mixed signals, but consumer sentiment improved.
Nvidia and Nike led gains, while Micron boosted AI stock confidence. Overall, market resilience and bullish sentiment continued to drive gains.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher Friday, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, and industrials, while energy and health care declined.
The Dow rose 1.00% to 43,819.27, the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.54% at 6,173.07, and the Nasdaq gained 0.52% to 20,273.46.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.80% higher at 40,472.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was up 0.33% at 8,542.30, led by gains in the Healthcare, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.44% at 25,524.95, and the Nifty 500 rose 0.01% to 23,621.90.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.59% at 3,444.43, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.37% to 3,936.08.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.87% lower at 24,072.28.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.30%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.09%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 0.19%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.30%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.40% at $65.26/bbl, and Brent was down 0.24% at $66.65/bbl.
Oil prices held steady as Middle East tensions eased, but potential OPEC+ output hikes and global demand uncertainty kept gains limited. Bearish pressure is expected to persist amid weak outlooks.
Natural gas fell 3.56% to $3.606.
Gold traded higher by 0.33% to $3,298.52, Silver fell 0.13% to $35.990, and Copper gained 0.52% to $5.0530.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.47%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.41%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.61%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.17% to 97.23, USD/JPY was down 0.30% to 144.24, and USD/AUD gained 0.05% to 1.5320.
The U.S. dollar slid near multi-year lows on hopes for trade deals and expected Fed rate cuts. Easing tariff risks, dovish Fed signals and euro strength further pressured the greenback.
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Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Edges Lower, Dollar Weakens On Rate Cut Bets - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The first five months of Donald Trump&#8216;s presidency have coincided with one of the steepest collapses in the U.S. dollar in over three decades, as economic contraction, surging deficits and political friction with the Federal Reserve hammered investor <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">confidence in the greenback. </a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Dollar&#8217;s Biggest Slump Since 1991</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104141/image-427-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-965053" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104141/image-427-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104141/image-427-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104141/image-427-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104141/image-427-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104141/image-427-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
The U.S. Dollar Index, a benchmark that measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies, has dropped over 10% year-to-date, marking its worst half-year performance since the second half of 1991.
After staging a powerful rally between late 2024 and January 2025 — gaining in 13 of 14 weeks on optimism over Trump's return and expected tax and tariff policies — the dollar turned sharply lower after Inauguration Day on Jan. 20.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Triggered The Dollar Collapse?</h2>
Initial market expectations had priced in a stronger dollar under Trump, given his promises of tax cuts and protectionist trade policies. Yet, these measures backfired.
The tide began turning in March, when the euro surged after Germany's coalition government launched a major fiscal expansion, abandoning the country's long-held debt brake. Berlin approved a defense spending boost, while the European Union announced an €800 billion "ReArm Europe" program, sending capital flows into the eurozone.
April delivered a double blow to the greenback. On April 2, Trump introduced sweeping tariffs — dubbed "Liberation Day" — against several trading partners. Markets recoiled as the move triggered retaliatory threats and rising uncertainty. 
A 90-day pause, announced on April 9, failed to restore confidence in the greenback.
Economic data deepened the dollar's woes. The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, marking the first decline since 2022. At the same time, concerns mounted over deteriorating fiscal conditions.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Deficit Explosion And Debt Downgrade</h3>
Moody's downgraded U.S. sovereign debt, stripping Washington of its last AAA credit rating. The rating agency highlighted a sustained increase in government debt and interest payments over more than a decade as key reasons for the downgrade.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office projected that Trump's flagship "One Big Beautiful Bill" would balloon the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade. 
This comes as the federal deficit-to-GDP ratio already hovers near 7%, and total government debt surpasses 100% of GDP.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Tensions Escalate, Rate Cut Bets Rise</h3>
Further damaging the dollar was Trump's escalating feud with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. After criticizing Powell throughout spring, Trump openly signaled he wouldn't reappoint him when his term expires in May 2026.
The Fed held interest rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting in June, citing inflation risks tied to tariffs. Powell said the current rate level was "appropriate" given the economic conditions, pushing back against political pressure.
In response, Trump lashed out at Powell, accusing him of political bias. Later in June, he floated possible replacements, reinforcing market expectations of a looser monetary policy.
Markets now anticipate two rate cuts before the end of 2025 and four more in 2026 — a dovish shift that has further weakened the dollar.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Where Is the Dollar Now?</h3>
On June 27, the U.S. Dollar Index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – slipped to 97, its lowest level since February 2022, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The index is heading for its seventh straight session of declines.
What began as a bullish outlook under Trump has quickly unraveled, turning the first half of 2025 into the dollar's worst chapter in nearly 40 years.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104508/image-428-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-965057" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104508/image-428-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104508/image-428-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104508/image-428-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104508/image-428-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/27104508/image-428-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/46137796/inflation-is-heating-up-again-are-tariffs-to-blame">Inflation Is Heating Up Again—Are Tariffs To Blame?</a><span class="author" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-pan-x: ; --tw-pan-y: ; --tw-pinch-zoom: ; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-gradient-from-position: ; --tw-gradient-via-position: ; --tw-gradient-to-position: ; --tw-ordinal: ; --tw-slashed-zero: ; --tw-numeric-figure: ; --tw-numeric-spacing: ; --tw-numeric-fraction: ; --tw-ring-inset: ; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246/0.5); --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-blur: ; --tw-brightness: ; --tw-contrast: ; --tw-grayscale: ; --tw-hue-rotate: ; --tw-invert: ; --tw-saturate: ; --tw-sepia: ; --tw-drop-shadow: ; --tw-backdrop-blur: ; --tw-backdrop-brightness: ; --tw-backdrop-contrast: ; --tw-backdrop-grayscale: ; --tw-backdrop-hue-rotate: ; --tw-backdrop-invert: ; --tw-backdrop-opacity: ; --tw-backdrop-saturate: ; --tw-backdrop-sepia: ; --tw-contain-size: ; --tw-contain-layout: ; --tw-contain-paint: ; --tw-contain-style: ;"></li>
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Currency ETFs

Trump Presidency Ushers In Dollar's Worst Six-Month Slide In 34 Years

On Thursday, June 26, U.S. markets closed higher as easing geopolitical tensions and supportive economic data boosted hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Major indexes advanced in a broad rally, edging the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closer to record highs.
Bank stocks led gains after a regulatory proposal, while Fed officials signaled openness to easing. Mixed economic signals, including weak consumer spending and strong orders, fueled speculation about the timing of rate cuts.
According to economic data, the U.S. first-quarter GDP was revised down to -0.5% from -0.2%, driven by a larger trade deficit from weaker exports. However, May factory orders jumped 16.4% to $343.6 billion, the biggest monthly gain since 2014, far exceeding expectations. Weekly jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to 236,000, defying forecasts of no change and signaling ongoing strength in the labor market.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy. Real estate and consumer staples declined.
The Dow rose 0.94% to 43,386.84, the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.80% at 6,141.02, and the Nasdaq gained 0.97% to 20,167.91.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 1.42% higher at 40,145.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.43% at 8,514.20, led by losses in the Financials, Healthcare, and A-REITs sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.37% at 25,640.40, and the Nifty 500 gained 0.44% to 23,621.45.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.70% at 3,424.23, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.61% to 3,921.76.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.17% lower at 24,284.15.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.97%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index gained 0.83%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 1.41%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.54%.
European stocks rose on U.S.-China trade progress and Middle East ceasefire optimism.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.72% at $65.71/bbl, and Brent was up 0.61% at $67.10/bbl.
Oil prices increased Friday but were on track for their biggest weekly drop since March 2023, as easing geopolitical tensions erased risk premiums. Focus shifted back to supply-demand fundamentals, with support from falling inventories and strong Chinese imports.
Natural gas rose 2.75% to $3.623.
Gold traded lower by 1.47% to $3,298.62, Silver fell 2.26% to $35.755, and Copper declined 1.34% to $4.9955.
Gold fell to a near four-week low as the Israel-Iran ceasefire reduced safe-haven demand and investors awaited key U.S. inflation data.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.24%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.23%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.31%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.04% to 97.26, USD/JPY was up 0.01% to 144.44, and USD/AUD gained 0.10% to 1.5290.
The U.S. dollar neared multi-year lows as markets priced in deeper rate cuts and a possible dovish Fed chair replacement.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Advances, Gold And Dollar Slip Further - Global Markets Today While US Slept

President Donald Trump's shortlist for the next Federal Reserve chair is heating up, fueling bets on deep rate cuts, pressuring the dollar and reigniting concerns over the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/federal-reserve">Fed's long-guarded independence.</a>
According to a Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-next-federal-reserve-chair-powell-d3edcb9c?mod=hp_lead_pos1">report</a>, Trump is considering the following names to replace Jerome Powell, whose term officially ends in May 2026:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Kevin Warsh: Former Federal Reserve governor between 2006 and 2011 and current Hoover Institution fellow. Warsh is known for advocating tight policy during the Great Recession, but more recently signaled openness to looser monetary conditions.</li>
<li>Christopher Waller: Sitting Fed governor since 2020. Although appointed by Trump, Waller has generally aligned with Powell's policy, although some consider him more accommodating on inflation risks. Last week, Waller indicated that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as July, departing from the current wait-and-see approach by Powell.</li>
<li>Scott Bessent: Currently Trump's Treasury Secretary and former chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management. Has limited central banking experience, but is seen as loyal to Trump.</li>
<li>Kevin Hassett: Former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, with strong academic credentials and vocal support for pro-growth, low-rate policies.</li>
<li>David Malpass, served as President of the World Bank from 2019 to 2023. Prior to that, he held senior economic roles under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush. He later served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs during Trump's first term.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Who Will Replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell? Betting Markets Weigh In</h2>
CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi shows the race remains tight, with no clear front-runner emerging. 
As of Thursday, both Warsh and Waller are tied with 28% odds each, followed by Bessent at 18% and Hassett trailing at 10%.
A $100 bet on Warsh would return $295 if he&#8217;s nominated, while the same wager on Waller would yield $334. For those backing Bessent, the return jumps to $556, and a longshot bet on Hassett would pay $1,000. 
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=medium&#038;variant=a&#038;ids=KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29-KW&#038;ids=KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29-CWAL&#038;ids=KXFEDCHAIRNOM-29-SBES&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="488px" height="196px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is A &#8220;Shadow Chairman&#8221; Looming?</h3>
Though Powell's term ends in mid-2026, markets are already pricing in a "shadow chairman" effect, according to BBVA analysts, who view the early emergence of a dovish successor as influential.
David Morrison of Trade Nation said, "It is understood that Mr Trump's preferred choices for the role will all be significantly dovish."
That sentiment reflects Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell's high-rate stance. In June, the Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting, prompting renewed ire from the president.
Speaking about Powell at the NATO summit on Wednesday, Trump said, "He goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he's terrible."
Trump added that current rates are inflating the U.S. interest bill and said that a 2-percentage-point rate cut could save the government up to $800 billion annually in debt servicing.
He called Powell "a very political guy," continuing a long feud. 
Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, said, "We think the Fed will cut rates this year and maybe a few times in 2026, but to get a meaningful reduction in U.S. interest expenses, the Fed would likely need to revisit the zero interest rate policies of the pre-COVID-19 years, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dollar Weakness Likely To Extend</h3>
The dollar has emerged as the first casualty of Fed speculation. The U.S. Dollar Index – tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – dropped Thursday to levels last seen in March 2022, and is down 10% since Trump's inauguration in January.
The euro-dollar pair surged past 1.17, its highest since 2021, while the dollar-franc exchange rate dropped below 0.80, levels not seen since the 2015 Swiss franc peg crisis. 
"Powell's successor as Fed chair has shifted market attention back to the longer-term path for Fed policy, and for Fed independence more broadly," Goldman Sachs said in a note Thursday. 
Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility that Trump's pick will push for faster and deeper rate cuts. 
Fed funds futures now imply two cuts by the end of 2025, followed by three to four additional cuts in 2026—a significantly more accommodative path than what the Federal Reserve itself projected in its June dot plot, which showed a median expectation of just two cuts next year.
This growing divergence suggests investors are anticipating a clear policy shift under new leadership, even before Powell officially departs.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="528" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-1024x528.png" alt="" class="wp-image-963258" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-1024x528.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-768x396.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-1536x792.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/26090101/image-409-2048x1056.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/46113383/us-china-trade-deal-could-be-finalized-next-week-says-harvard-scholar-they-are-going-to-stabilize-this">US-China Trade Deal Could Be Finalized Next Week, Says Harvard Scholar: &#8216;They Are Going To Stabilize This&#8217; </a></li>
</ul>
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Government

Analyst Ratings

Trump's Fed Chairman Shortlist Is In: What Investors Need To Know

On Wednesday, June 25, U.S. markets closed mixed, with the Nasdaq lifted by tech shares while the S&amp;P 500 remained flat. Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8217;s second day of congressional testimony reiterated the central bank&#8217;s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts.
Nvidia&#8217;s market value surged, making it the world&#8217;s most valuable company. Economic uncertainty weighed on corporate guidance, with notable declines from Tesla, FedEx, and General Mills. BlackBerry and Micron saw strong gains.
According to economic data, U.S. new home sales fell by 13.7% to 623,000 units in May, while building permits dropped by 2% to 1.394 million.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed lower, with real estate, consumer staples, and utilities posting the largest losses, while information technology and communication services stocks ended higher.
The Dow slid 0.25% to 42,982.43, the S&amp;P 500 was flat at 6,092.16, and the Nasdaq gained 0.31% to 19,973.55.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 1.66% higher at 39,588.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.10% at 8,550.80, led by losses in the IT, Gold, and A-REITs sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 1.26% at 25,562.60, and the Nifty 500 gained 0.99% to 23,527.80.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.22% at 3,448.45, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.35% to 3,946.02.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.61% lower at 24,325.40.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.18%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index gained 0.76%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 0.24%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.18%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.03% at $64.90/bbl, and Brent was up 0.09% at $66.50/bbl.
Oil prices steadied after erasing earlier gains as investors focused on market fundamentals amid cautious optimism over the Iran-Israel ceasefire.
Natural gas fell 0.90% to $3.537.
Gold traded higher by 0.32% to $3,354.10, Silver rose 1.40% to $36.608, and Copper gained 2.77% to $5.0523.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.19%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.27%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.40%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.56% to 97.15, USD/JPY was down 0.77% to 144.09, and USD/AUD slid 0.39% to 1.5293.
The dollar fell to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc, driven by concerns over the Fed&#8217;s independence and Trump&#8217;s criticism of Powell.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Gains, Dollar Hit by Fed Concerns And Cooling Inflation - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Tuesday, June 24, U.S. markets closed higher as investors responded positively to a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and awaited signals from the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq 100 reached a record close, and the S&amp;P 500 neared its previous peak.
Tech shares led the rally, while energy stocks slipped on lower oil prices. Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach to rate cuts, with weakening consumer confidence adding to expectations for future easing.
In economic data, the U.S. current account deficit jumped 44% to $450.2 billion in Q1, above the prior $312 billion and slightly above forecasts. Meanwhile, home price growth slowed, with the S&amp;P Case-Shiller Index rising 3.4% in April, down from 4.1% in March.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended higher on Tuesday, led by tech, communication services, and financials. Energy stocks declined, bucking the trend.
The Dow rose 1.19% to 43,089.02, the S&amp;P 500 was up 1.11% to 6,092.18, and the Nasdaq gained 1.43% to 19,912.53.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.40% higher at 38,946.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was up 0.04% at 8,559.20, led by gains in the Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.80% at 25,244.05, and the Nifty 500 gained 0.79% to 23,295.80.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 1.01% at 3,455.97, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.44% to 3,960.07.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 1.23% higher at 24,474.67.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.13%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.33%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 slid 0.06%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.01%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.27% at $65.19/bbl, and Brent was up 1.12% at $66.92/bbl.
Oil prices rose over 1% as U.S. demand remained firm, and a fragile ceasefire eased supply fears. Expectations of Fed rate cuts also supported the market&#8217;s demand outlook.
Natural gas fell 0.03% to $3.654.
Gold traded higher by 0.11% to $3,337.12, Silver slid 0.21% to $35.658, and Copper gained 0.24% to $4.8840.
Gold prices inched higher Wednesday as a weaker dollar offered support, offsetting pressure from easing geopolitical tensions after the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Other metals also rose slightly on a softer dollar.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures fell 0.07%, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.06%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.12% to 98.10, USD/JPY was up 0.50% to 145.66, and USD/AUD slid 0.08% to 1.5398.
The dollar hovered near a four-year low against the euro as easing oil prices and a shaky Middle East truce reduced inflation fears, boosting rate-cut hopes and risk appetite.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Up, Europe Markets Slip, Dollar Under Pressure On Increased Risk Appetite - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Monday, June 23, U.S. markets closed higher as investors were relieved by Iran&#8217;s measured response to American airstrikes, easing fears of wider conflict.
The major indexes ended higher, while oil prices plunged sharply after traders bet that global crude supplies would remain stable. Analysts pointed to Iran&#8217;s limited military capabilities and lack of strong allies as reasons for the market&#8217;s calm reaction despite heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
In economic data, S&amp;P Global&#8217;s U.S. services PMI dipped to 53.1 in June from 53.7, slightly above expectations of 52.9. The manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52, indicating a steady expansion in factory activity.
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/events/25/06/46068524/israel-says-iran-broke-trump-ceasefire-orders-high-intensity-strikes-on-tehran" rel="noreferrer noopener">Israel Says Iran Broke Trump Ceasefire, Orders&#8217; High-Intensity Strikes&#8217; On Tehran</a>
Consumer and real estate stocks led broad S&amp;P 500 gains Monday, while energy shares fell as oil prices dropped.
The Dow rose 0.89% to 42,581.78, the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.96% to 6,025.17, and the Nasdaq gained 0.94% to 19,630.97.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 1.16% higher at 38,800.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was up 0.95% at 8,555.50, led by gains in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials, and Financials sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.26% at 25,037.10, and the Nifty 500 gained 0.48% to 23,110.60.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 1.15% at 3,420.57, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 1.20% to 3,904.03.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 2.06% higher at 24,177.07.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was up 1.77%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index gained 2.15%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 1.45%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.38%.
European shares jumped as Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire, boosting travel stocks. Energy lagged on falling oil; the STOXX 600 rose, led by airlines and leisure.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 3.20% at $66.29/bbl, and Brent was down 3.29% at $68.21/bbl.
Oil prices dropped to two-week lows after Israel accepted Trump&#8217;s ceasefire plan with Iran, easing fears of supply disruption and erasing the recent risk premium in crude markets.
Natural gas fell 1.52% to $3.752.
Gold traded lower by 1.85% to $3,332.90, Silver slid 0.50% to $36.005, and Copper gained 0.87% to $4.8920.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.77%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.89%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 1.17%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.41% to 97.99, USD/JPY was down 0.81% to 144.97, and USD/AUD slid 0.78% to 1.5361.
The U.S. dollar fell as ceasefire optimism between Iran and Israel boosted risk appetite. The Dollar Index dropped while the euro, sterling, and yen gained on improving sentiment.
Photo via Shutterstock

Global Markets Rally, Oil Plunges On Ceasefire Optimism

On Friday, June 20, U.S. markets closed mixed amid heightened Iran-Israel tensions and uncertainty over possible U.S. involvement. Choppy trading, triple-witching volume, and inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. While the S&amp;P dipped, the Nasdaq gained for the week. Tech megacaps dragged indices lower as investors remained cautious. Mixed Fed comments added to market unease over interest rate direction.
In economic data, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index held steady at minus 4.0 in June, matching the previous reading and falling short of the expected minus 1.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell Friday, led by health care, materials, and communications, while energy and consumer staples gained.
The Dow rose 0.08% to 42,206.82, the S&amp;P 500 was down 0.22% to 5,967.84, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.51% to 19,447.41.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.01% lower at 38,401.00, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport and Communication sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.36% at 8,474.90.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.62% at 24,954.30, and the Nifty 500 declined 0.23% to 22,987.20.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.65% at 3,381.58, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.29% to 3,857.90.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.67% higher at 23,689.13.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.27%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.44%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 0.48%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.01%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.99% at $74.58/bbl, and Brent was up 1.04% at $76.30/bbl.
Oil hit five-month highs as the U.S. joined Israel in striking Iran, raising supply fears. Prices later flattened as no disruptions occurred, but the risk premium persists amid Hormuz closure threats.
Natural gas rose 0.94% to $3.986.
Gold traded lower by 0.13% to $3,381.60, Silver rose 0.34% to $36.135, and Copper declined 0.67% to $4.8000.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.11%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.23%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
As of 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.59% to 99.29, USD/JPY was up 1.19% to 147.84, and USD/AUD rose 1.12% to 1.5677
The U.S. dollar strengthened as investors sought safety amid Middle East tensions, especially after strikes on Iran. Moves were muted as markets awaited Iran&#8217;s response.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Slips As Oil Hits $75 - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Wall Street&#8217;s aversion to the dollar has reached its highest in two decades. Bank of America&#8217;s June Global Fund Managers Survey indicates that <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45974992/everyone-now-hates-the-dollar-is-that-the-ultimate-buy-signal">37% of investors are underweight on the U.S. dollar</a>, the most bearish skew in two years. But this unusual unanimity is flashing something interesting for ETF investors: a contrarian opportunity.
Enter <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">dollar-bullish ETFs</a>, namely, the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USDU#NYSE">USDU</a>), and a family of currency-hedged equity ETFs such as iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HEFA#BATS">HEFA</a>) and WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DXJ#NYSE">DXJ</a>).
These are not merely tactical dollar-strength plays; they might also be the wiser alternative to betting on other world currencies in an era of policy pivots, trade shocks, and geopolitical hairpin turns.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/45983526/trump-wants-an-end-not-a-ceasefire-for-the-israel-iran-war-what-that-means-for-etfs">Trump Wants &#8216;An End, Not a Ceasefire&#8217; For The Israel-Iran War: What That Means For ETFs</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Betting Against The Dollar Might Backfire</h2>
The U.S. Dollar Index, which UUP follows, has dropped around 12% since Donald Trump&#8216;s inauguration on Jan 20. Investors struggle with growing deficits, bewildering tariff messages, and a Fed that seems cornered. On paper, that seems like a good enough setup for wagering on other currencies.
But that is not really the case.
The issue? The alternatives are not exactly poster children for stability.
The eurozone is stuck with anemic growth, recalcitrant inflation, and political weakness from Brussels to Berlin.
The Japanese yen is anchored to ultra-loose monetary policy and a hawkish Fed–BoJ divergence.
The Chinese yuan continues to be politically managed and vulnerable to a shaky property market.
Emerging market currencies? Illiquid, volatile, and sharply responsive to risk-off shocks.
Short version: Sure, sentiment might be bearish on the dollar, but there&#8217;s no neat &#8220;long&#8221; substitute. And in FX, betting on currencies other than the dollar can rapidly go off the rails when global risk rises.
Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45974992/everyone-now-hates-the-dollar-is-that-the-ultimate-buy-signal">Everyone Now Hates The Dollar—Is That The Ultimate Buy Signal?</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">UUP, USDU: Tactical Bets With Past Tailwinds</h2>
Invesco&#8217;s UUP and WisdomTree&#8217;s USDU offer liquid, directional exposure to a dollar recovery.
UUP tracks the dollar against a basket of six developed-market currencies, with the euro weighing heavily in the mix.
USDU is a broader one, with a mix of emerging markets and more diversified FX. It is a more diversified bet, but dollar-positive nonetheless.
Both the funds are off this year, tracking the decline of the dollar, and that&#8217;s precisely what could make them attractive. In 2005, when sentiment had been equally bearish, the dollar rallied 14% over several months. That rebound caught a vast majority of short-dollar positions by surprise, and paid off for ETF investors who entered early.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">For The Cautious: Hedge Your International Equity Exposure</h2>
If jumping headfirst into long-dollar ETFs seems reckless, investors can still be defensive through currency-hedged international ETFs such as HEFA (Europe, Australasia, Far East equities, currency-hedged), DXJ (Japan equities, JPY-hedged), and WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HEDJ#NYSE">HEDJ</a>) (Eurozone exporters, euro-hedged).
These funds allow investors to hold international diversification without being clobbered if the dollar does rally.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Positioning Against The Herd</h2>
When most investors are scrambling to discover the next hard currency, the road of least resistance might be to remain humble in the dollar. For it is during a geopolitical environment characterized by tariff brinksmanship, Middle East turmoil, and election-year uncertainty that stability, no matter how flawed, can become a valuable asset.
Read Next: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/06/45982240/beyond-magnificent-7-can-thematic-etfs-like-ives-lead-the-next-wave-of-ai-investing-cio-cullen-rogers-explains">Beyond Magnificent 7: Can Thematic ETFs Like IVES Lead The Next Wave Of AI Investing? CIO Cullen Rogers Explains</a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

WisdomTree Trust Japan Total Dividend Fund

HEDJ

HEFA

UUP Vs. The Herd: Contrarian Dollar ETFs In Focus As Sentiment Hits 20-Year Low

On Tuesday, June 17, U.S. markets closed lower as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day, heightening geopolitical tensions and prompting the U.S. to deploy more fighter jets to the region.
Volatility rose, with energy and defense stocks gaining on higher oil prices, while solar stocks plunged following proposed tax credit cuts. Investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy decision.
On the economic data front, May retail sales dropped 0.9%, deeper than April&#8217;s 0.1% decline and worse than expected. Industrial production slipped 0.2%, missing estimates, while import prices were unchanged and export prices fell 0.9%.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended in the red, led by health care, materials, and consumer discretionary. Energy was the lone bright spot. The Dow fell 0.70% to 42,215.80, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.84% to 5,982.72, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.91% to 19,521.09.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/topics/25/06/45988985/israel-says-it-struck-iranian-centrifuge-site-missile-factories-near-tehran-with-over-50-jets-to-disrupt-weapons-program" rel="noreferrer noopener">Israel Says It Struck Iranian Centrifuge Site, Missile Factories Near Tehran With Over 50 Jets To Disrupt Weapons Program</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.87% higher at 38,873.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.12% at 8,531.20, led by losses in the Gold, Metals &amp; Mining, and Materials sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.19% at 24,807.20, and the Nifty 500 declined 0.26% to 22,922.25.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.04% at 3,388.81, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.12% to 3,874.97.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session at a 1.12% lower rate of 23,710.69.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.01%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 0.13%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 0.09%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.19%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.13% at $72.45/bbl, and Brent was down 1.10% at $75.61/bbl.
Oil prices dipped Wednesday in Asian trade after a sharp 4% rise as markets balanced Middle East supply risks against the Fed&#8217;s looming rate decision.
Natural gas fell 0.68% to $3.826.
Gold traded lower by 0.27% to $3,397.80, Silver rose 0.35% to $37.283, and Copper gained 0.68% to $4.8423.
Gold held steady as safe-haven demand rose amid Middle East tensions and weak U.S. data. Other metals gained on a weaker dollar.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.21%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 0.36%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.15% to 98.69, USD/JPY was down 0.21% to 144.93, and USD/AUD declined 0.31% to 1.5392.
On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar slipped against the yen and Swiss franc as Middle East tensions drove demand for safe-haven assets.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Mixed, Dollar Pressured Amid Middle East Tensions - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Wall Street&#8217;s bearish stance on the U.S. dollar has hit levels not seen in two decades, with fund managers overwhelmingly underweight the greenback as concerns mount over America&#8217;s fiscal trajectory and Donald <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Trump's conflicting trade policies.</a>
According to Bank of America&#8217;s June Global Fund Managers Survey, a net 37% of respondents said they are underweight the dollar—the most extreme underallocation since January 2005.
Bank of America&#8217;s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett described the bearish sentiment as the "most extreme view" in this month's survey. Still, he warned that crowded trades often backfire. 
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45971228/retail-sales-slump-more-than-expected-as-tariff-fears-hit-spending">Retail Sales Slump More Than Expected As Tariff Fears Hit Spending </a>
"Biggest summer pain trade is long the buck," Hartnett said.
The U.S. dollar index — as closely tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — has fallen by 12% since Trump&#8217;s inauguration day on January 20, 2025.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Investors Are Less Pessimistic On Growth</h3>
Despite the weak dollar outlook, global economic optimism has risen among fund managers. Since Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days and signaled willingness for trade agreements with China, global recession fears have plunged.
Just two months ago, 42% of investors surveyed expected a recession in the next 12 months. That figure has now flipped, with 36% saying a recession is "unlikely." 
Expectations for economic deterioration have dropped sharply, with only 46% forecasting a weaker global economy—down from a record-high 82% in April, marking the largest two-month swing since the 2024 election.
Conviction in a global economic "soft landing" rose to 66%, the highest since October 2024. In contrast, only 13% anticipate a "hard landing," a sharp drop from 49% in April. 
Meanwhile, expectations for a scenario where growth remains resilient without any meaningful slowdown—dubbed "no landing"—are rising, up to 16% from just 3% two months ago.
Most investors believe the final tariff rate the U.S. will impose on imports will remain modest. Only 1% see it exceeding 30%, while 77% anticipate a rate under 15%. The weighted average expected tariff is 13%, easing fears of a trade war-style disruption.
About 59% of fund managers say the Trump&#8217;s Big Beautiful Bill won't boost GDP growth, while a third see it as supportive. 
The deficit, already near 7% of GDP, is projected to worsen, with 81% forecasting a larger shortfall due to Senate provisions. Just 14% believe the bill will be self-financing.
&#8220;3 most contrarian trades based on Fund Manager Survey sentiment are&nbsp;long US&nbsp;dollar, short gold; long US, short EU stocks; long consumer, short banks,&#8221; Hartnett stated. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Could Dollar Bearishness Signal A Turning Point?</h3>
Back in January 2005, when the dollar pessimism hit another extreme, the greenback had just come off a painful 33% drawdown from its July 2001 peak.
That fueled the start of a bullish dollar trend, which lasted one year.
The U.S. dollar index surged 11% between January and July 2005, extending its rally to a 14% gain by mid-November. It ultimately ended the year with a 13% advance.
The historical parallel with 2005 is hard to ignore. 
That year, bearish sentiment proved to be a powerful contrarian indicator, preceding a double-digit rebound in the greenback. 
With positioning once again heavily skewed against the dollar, traders may want to revisit that playbook. 
While structural issues like deficits and fiscal expansion loom large, near-term market pain could come from a sudden reversal higher in the U.S. currency.
Now Read
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</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Everyone Now Hates The Dollar—Is That The Ultimate Buy Signal?

On Monday, June 16, U.S. markets ended higher on hopes of easing tensions between Israel and Iran, which drove oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns. Hopes for a ceasefire and Iran&#8217;s diplomatic outreach lifted investor sentiment. Tech and communication stocks led gains, while utilities underperformed.
With key economic data and earnings ahead, all eyes remain on the Fed&#8217;s rate decision, with no cuts expected.
In economic data, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to -16 in June, down from -9.2 in May and below the expected -5.5.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose Monday, led by tech, communication, and consumer stocks, while utilities and health care declined. The Dow closed higher by 0.75% at 42,515.09, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.94% to 6,033.11, and the Nasdaq rose 1.52% to 19,701.21.
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45968002/trump-says-israel-iran-ceasefire-not-on-the-table-left-g7-early-for-a-much-bigger-reason-spy-qqq-dip-in-premarket-oil-climbs" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Says Israel-Iran &#8216;Ceasefire&#8217; Not On The Table, Left G7 Early For A &#8216;Much Bigger&#8217; Reason: SPY, QQQ Dip In Premarket, Oil Climbs</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.67% higher at 38,567.50, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.08% at 8,541.30, led by losses in the Utilities, Financials and Healthcare sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.37% at 24,853.40, and the Nifty 500 declined 0.49% to 22,981.50.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.04% at 3,387.40, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 slid 0.09% to 3,870.38.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.34% lower at 23,980.30.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 06:00 am ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 1.27%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 1.25%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 1.05%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.47%.
European stocks fell as Iran-Israel tensions escalated, fueling fears of broader conflict and inflation from rising oil prices. Most STOXX 600 sectors declined, led by banks, while energy gained.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 06:00 am ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.38% at $71.23/bbl, and Brent was up 1.47% at $74.31/bbl.
Oil prices rose amid ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, though no production losses have been reported. Markets remain volatile as concerns over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz persist.
Natural gas rose 1.25% to $3.795.
Gold traded lower by 0.33% to $3,406.45, Silver rose 0.62% to $36.675, and Copper fell 0.37% to $4.8182.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 06:00 am ET, the Dow Jones futures fell 0.62%, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.60%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.61%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 06:00 am ET, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.02% to 98.16, USD/JPY was up 0.02% to 144.76, and USD/AUD declined 0.09% to 1.5308.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets In Red, Oil Spikes On Geopolitical Tensions - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Friday, June 13, U.S. markets ended sharply lower as escalating Iran-Israel tensions rattled global markets. Oil prices jumped on fears of supply disruption, boosting energy and defense stocks, while airlines tumbled on rising fuel concerns.
Most sectors in the S&amp;P 500 declined, led by financials and tech. Despite positive consumer sentiment and stable inflation data, geopolitical risks weighed heavily on investor confidence and market performance.
According to economic data, the University of Michigan&#8217;s consumer sentiment index rose to 60.5 in June, up from 52.2 in the prior two months and above expectations of 53.5.
While most S&amp;P 500 sectors, including financials, tech, and materials, posted losses Friday, energy stocks closed higher against the trend. The Dow closed lower by 1.79% at 42,197.79, the S&amp;P 500 declined 1.13% to 5,976.97, and the Nasdaq slipped 1.30% to 19,406.83.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/45943707/us-economy-to-face-pretty-limited-impact-from-israel-iran-airstrikes-with-only-a-tiny-bit-recession-risk-say-economists" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Economy To Face &#8216;Pretty Limited&#8217; Impact From Israel-Iran Airstrikes, With Only A &#8216;Tiny Bit&#8217; Recession Risk, Say Economists</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Monday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 1.29% higher at 38,324.00, led by gains in the Real Estate, Banking, and Textile sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was up 0.01% at 8,548.40, led by gains in the Energy, IT and Telecoms Services sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.89% at 24,937.40, and the Nifty 500 gained 0.79% to 23,086.95.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.35% at 3,388.73, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 rose 0.25% to 3,873.80.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.70% higher at 24,060.9
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was up 0.42%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index gained 0.32%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 rose 0.71%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.38%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.60% at $70.86/bbl, and Brent was down 0.73% at $73.74/bbl.
Oil prices dipped Monday after a sharp surge on Friday, as Israeli-Iranian strikes over the weekend left oil facilities intact. Brent and WTI futures gave back earlier gains despite briefly rising over $4 in Asian trading.
Natural gas rose 2.90% to $3.685.
Gold traded lower by 0.61% to $3,431.70, Silver rose 0.10% to $36.393, and Copper fell 0.28% to $4.8008.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures rose 0.36%, the S&amp;P 500 gained 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 was up 0.49%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.24% to 97.98, USD/JPY was up 0.01% to 144.12, and USD/AUD declined 0.42% to 1.5348.
The dollar held steady Monday amid Israel-Iran tensions and ahead of key central bank meetings, while risk currencies edged higher and oil prices eased from last week&#8217;s surge.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Rise, Dollar Slips Ahead Of Central Bank Decisions - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Rising Middle East tensions and President Donald Trump&#8217;s threats to Iran are flaring uncertainty in the global and U.S. markets. As a result, money is flowing from equities to safe-haven assets like gold.
Also, the crude oil price is soaring as rising conflict threatens OPEC crude supply.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.92% lower at 37,821.50, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport and Communication sectors.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.21% at 8,547.40, led by losses in the IT, Healthcare, and Telecoms Services sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.71% at 24,712.40, and the Nifty 500 slid 0.65% to 22,895.65.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.75% at 3,377.00, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.72% to 3,864.18.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 0.59% lower at 23,892.56.
Related: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/45897276/oil-etfs-surge-over-6-as-trump-orders-middle-east-evacuation-amid-iran-tensions-warns-region-could-be-dangerous" rel="noreferrer noopener">Oil ETFs Surge Over 6% As Trump Orders Middle East Evacuation Amid Iran Tensions, Warns Region &#8216;Could Be Dangerous&#8217;</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 1.33%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 1.35%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 1.03%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.38%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 7.54% at $73.17/bbl, and Brent was up 74.38% at $74.31/bbl.
Oil prices surged over 7% on Friday, hitting multi-month highs after Israel struck Iran&#8217;s nuclear sites, prompting retaliation and fears of supply disruption.
Natural gas rose 1.03% to $3.529.
Gold traded higher by 1.24% to $3,444.40, Silver rose 0.54% to $36.493, and Copper fell 1.90% to $4.7440.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">US Futures</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, Dow Jones futures were down 1.14%, the S&amp;P 500 declined 1.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 1.48%.
U.S. stock futures fell after Israel&#8217;s strike on Iran raised Middle East tensions, spiking oil prices and boosting energy and defense stocks.
On Thursday, June 12, U.S. markets ended higher as optimism over artificial intelligence lifted investor sentiment. The S&amp;P 500 gained ground, led by a surge in Oracle shares after the company raised its outlook on strong AI-related demand. Gains in tech and gold mining stocks offset worries over Middle East tensions and a decline in Boeing shares. Softer inflation and labor data boosted hopes for an interest rate cut.
According to the economic data, U.S. producer prices rose 0.1% in May, below the 0.2% forecast, after a revised 0.2% drop in April. Initial jobless claims held at 248,000, above expectations of 240,000.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors advanced Thursday, led by utilities, tech, and health care, while communication services and consumer discretionary lagged.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
At 05:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.45% to 98.31, USD/JPY was up 0.41% to 144.05, and USD/AUD rose 0.82% to 1.5430.
The dollar rallied Friday as investors sought safe havens after Israel&#8217;s strikes on Iran triggered retaliation.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/market-summary/25/06/45918802/middle-east-tensions-rattle-markets-us-stock-futures-slide-oil-jumps-8-gold-surges-above-3400-after-israel-strikes-iran" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Middle East Tensions Rattle Markets: US Stock Futures Slide, Oil Jumps 8%, Gold Surges Above $3,400 After Israel Strikes Iran</a></li>
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Photo via Shutterstock

Global Markets Slide As Iran-Israel Conflict Heats Up, Oil Soars

Wall Street traded cautiously on Thursday midday, with major indexes mostly flat while the U.S. dollar slumped to over two-year lows, as investors digested a double dose of soft inflation and a surprise uptick in jobless claims that further bolstered expectations <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">for interest rate cuts.</a>
May's Producer Price Index rose just 0.1% from the prior month, undershooting forecasts of 0.2%, while the annual rate held steady at 2.6%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, cooled to 3.0% year-over-year—its lowest since August 2024—and gained only 0.1% on the month, missing the 0.3% projection.
Jobless claims added to the cautious mood. Initial claims climbed to 248,000 last week, above the 240,000 estimate, while continuing claims hit 1.956 million—the highest level since November 2021—suggesting weakening labor demand. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump Pressures Powell, Again</h3>
President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.
Speaking from the White House, Trump said he told Powell "we don't need to keep interest rates this high" and added that he "may have to force something," hinting at political frustration over tight monetary policy.
The S&amp;P 500 inched 0.2% higher to 6,035 points by midday trading in New York. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also rose 0.2% to 21,900 points. 
Blue-chip stocks, tracked by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, were flat at 42,860, while small-cap shares fell 0.5%.
The U.S. dollar index — tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) — fell 0.6% to 97.60, hitting its weakest level since March 2022 amid broad disinflation and labor market concerns.
Treasury yields declined across the curve, with 5- to 6-basis-point drops. In response, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) surged nearly 1%.
Gold prices climbed sharply as the dollar weakened and expectations grew for easier Fed policy. The yellow metal rose 1% to $3,390 per ounce, while silver erased early losses to gain 0.2%, reaching $36.30.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>), meanwhile, slipped 1.3% to $107,400. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>Chg %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,905.42</td>
<td>+0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>6,036.89</td>
<td>+0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,864.84</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,137.55</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Oracle Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORCL#NYSE">ORCL</a>) rallied by 14.4% in reaction to stronger-than-expected earnings and upbeat guidance. Shares eye the strongest 1-day surge since December 2021. </li>
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) fell 5% after a fatal crash involving a 787-8 Dreamliner in India resulted in 240 deaths. </li>
<li>Shares of United Airlines Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>), American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) fell 3.5%, 2.4% and 1.9% in reaction to the tragic event.</li>
<li>Fortrea Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FTRE#NASDAQ">FTRE</a>) surged 14% Thursday after the company announced the adoption of a shareholder rights plan designed to prevent hostile takeovers and protect investor interests.</li>
<li>GameStop Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GME#NYSE">GME</a>) sunk 20% after announcing late Wednesday that it intends to raise $1.75 billion through the sale of convertible senior notes maturing in 2032. </li>
</ul>
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45906982/dollar-hits-27-month-lows-the-fed-should-cut-next-week-economist-says">Economists Send Urgent Warning After Dollar Hits 2 Year Low </a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Large Cap

FTRE

ORCL

Stocks Flat, Dollar Sinks To Over 2-Year Lows After Inflation Data: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

The greenback hasn&#8217;t been this weak in over two years, as mounting evidence of disinflation and cracks in the labor market stripped away its appeal, prompting a louder call from economists for the Federal Reserve <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">to cut interest rates.</a>
The U.S. dollar index—a trade-weighted gauge measuring dollar strength broadly tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>)—dropped to 97.60 on Thursday, the lowest since late March 2022.
The slide came after a one-two punch of economic reports showed inflation cooling among consumers and producers while jobless claims surged to multi-year highs.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Broadly Undershoots Forecasts</h3>
Thursday's data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the Producer Price Index rose 2.6% in May<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/25/06/45902987/producer-inflation-rises-less-than-forecasts-in-may-jobless-claims-signal-labor-market-cracks"> from a year earlier,</a> matching expectations but reflecting only a modest rise from April's revised 2.5%. On a monthly basis, PPI increased just 0.1%, below the 0.2% forecast.
Core PPI, which strips out food and energy prices, cooled to 3.0% year-over-year — its lowest reading since August 2024 — and posted a minimal 0.1% monthly gain, missing the 0.3% estimate. The figures indicate that inflationary pressures in the production pipeline remain soft, despite tariff concerns.
Released a day earlier, the Consumer Price Index for May rose 2.4% annually, a slight uptick from April's 2.3% but under the consensus view of 2.5%. Monthly CPI rose just 0.1%, also below expectations.
Core CPI held steady at 2.8% year-over-year, with monthly gains easing to 0.1%, down from 0.2% the previous month and falling short of the projected 0.3%. 
These numbers reinforce the narrative that price pressures are failing to accelerate, despite lingering tariff-related risks.
Alongside subdued inflation, the labor market showed fresh signs of strain. Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 in the week ending June 7, exceeding forecasts of 240,000. More significantly, continuing claims climbed to 1.956 million — the highest level since November 2021.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economists Urge Fed To Cut Rates</h3>
Neil Dutta, economist at Renaissance Macro, said on Bloomberg TV, "The fact that continuing claims are basically running at cycle highs tells you that permanent layoffs are going up… The labor market is cracking."
Dutta indicated that the Fed is now behind the curve. "They should be focusing on the data that's coming in… The train may have already left the station."
The expert warned that "Fed policy is too tight" and urged the central bank to act. "Next week," he said, though he added he doesn't expect the Fed to move in June.
Referencing a prior misstep, Dutta added, "Powell said he was a little bit late when he cut in September. Then what does that make him now?"
&#8220;The Fed is whistling past the graveyard," he added. 
Dutta also emphasized the connection between housing and inflation. "You look at metro areas like Dallas, Phoenix—these are places with significant home price weakness and very benign inflation," he said. 
"If the housing market got worse after 100 basis points of cuts, Fed policy is too tight."
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, said the latest data &#8220;make a federal funds rate cut later this year more plausible,&#8221; although he warned that fiscal stimulus and slower labor supply growth may still keep unemployment stable, limiting the Fed&#8217;s incentive to ease.
Stephen Juneau, economist at Bank of America, was more cautious. "Overall, this would be a good number for the Fed, but it&#8217;s hard to take too much signal given the uncertainty tariffs pose around the inflation path."
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Economists Send Urgent Warning After Dollar Hits 2 Year Low

Editor&#8217;s Note: This article has been updated with additional content.
Producer prices snapped back in May after an April decline, but the rebound fell short of sparking inflation concerns, suggesting tariffs and supply frictions have yet to bleed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">broadly into the economy.</a>
The Producer Price Index rose 2.6% on a year-over-year basis, up from April's upwardly revised 2.5%, according to Thursday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
On a monthly basis, the PPI advanced 0.1%, reversing April's upwardly revised 0.2% decline, and below the 0.2% expected. 
Core PPI, which strips out food and energy prices and is a key indicator of underlying inflation pressures, eased to 3% annually from April's 3.2%. This marks the lowest level since August 2024. On a monthly basis, core PPI inched 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the prior month, below than expected 0.3%. 
Thursday's producer data arrived one day after a softer-than-expected consumer inflation reading. The Consumer Price Index climbed 2.4% year-over-year in May, up slightly from April's 2.3%, but below the anticipated 2.5% increase. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Producer Inflation</th>
<th>May 2025</th>
<th>April 2025</th>
<th>Expected</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>PPI YoY</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PPI MoM</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PPI YoY</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PPI MoM</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
In a separate release Thursday, the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 248,000 for the week ending June 7, above forecasts for 240,000. Continuing claims surged to 1.956 million, the highest level since November 2021 and above consensus projections of 1.91 million.
The increase in unemployment filings is further evidence of a softening labor market, potentially giving the Federal Reserve additional room to resume the pace of interest rate cuts.
Fed futures currently price in a near-certainty of a first rate cut by October. 
Following the PPI and jobless claims data, traders are assigned roughly 40 basis points of total easing by year-end, implying at least one full 25-basis-point cut and a high probability of a second in December.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Treasury Yields Fall, Dollar Hits 2-Year Lows</h3>
Both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields dropped sharply following the cooler inflation readings and signs of labor market weakening.
A trade-weighted measure of the dollar, broadly tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), slid to 97.70—its lowest level since March 2022.
Bond markets reacted with a broad rally. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 7 basis points to 4.35%, while the 30-year yield also declined 7 basis points to 4.85%. The more rate-sensitive 2-year yield dropped to 3.87%, approaching its lowest point since early May, as traders ramped up bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) was 1.1% higher in the premarket trading. 
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures pared overnight losses, supported by growing expectations for looser monetary policy and more favorable conditions for risk assets.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Producer Inflation Rises Less Than Forecasts In May, Jobless Claims Signal Labor Market Cracks (UPDATED)

The euro has lost its position as the second-largest reserve asset globally, with gold taking its place, the European Central Bank (ECB) stated in its 2025 annual review.
The top European financial institution took notice of a surge in central bank purchases and record-breaking prices of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold" rel="noreferrer noopener">the yellow metal</a>. At 20% of reserves, gold is slowly closing the gap on the U.S. dollar, which leads at 46%.
"Adjusted for inflation, real gold prices in 2024 surpassed their previous peak seen during the 1979 oil crisis. Meanwhile, gold reserves held by central banks stand at levels close to those last seen in the Bretton Woods era (36,000 tons), although they now account for a far smaller share of total gold supply," the ECB said in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-publications/ire/focus/html/ecb.irebox202506_01~f93400a4aa.en.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">review</a>.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/45893521" rel="noreferrer noopener">US Embassy Evacuations Spark Middle East Risks, And Markets Are Noticing</a>
The bank has stated the persistent rally into 2025, which has (for now) topped at $3,500 per ounce, driven by a mix of investor interest and persistent official sector demand.
The geopolitical shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a reassessment of reserve strategies among central banks. Concerns over sanctions and the weaponization of reserve currencies drove a shift toward gold, which has long been viewed as a neutral store of value.
This trend was notable among countries geopolitically aligned with or near China and Russia, many of which began increasing their gold holdings in late 2021.
In response, gold demand from the official sector surged to historic highs. Central banks added over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43512109/gold-extends-records-as-central-banks-rush-to-buy-bullion-miners-eye-sixth-straight-winning-week" rel="noreferrer noopener">1,000 tons of gold</a> in each of the past three years—more than double the pace seen during the 2010s.
In 2024 alone, official sector purchases represented over 20% of global gold demand, effectively doubling the average share of 10% in the previous decade.
According to recent data from the World Gold Council, Türkiye, India, China, and Poland were the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2025/05/indias-gold-market-update-gains-hold-despite-demand-pressure" rel="noreferrer noopener">largest gold buyers</a>, collectively adding over 600 tons since the end of 2021. Interestingly, while India recently became the fourth-largest global economy, Poland is its European counterpart and the only regional outperformer in 2024,<a target="_blank" href="https://think.ing.com/snaps/poland-cee-peers-2024/" rel="noreferrer noopener"> ING research</a> showed.
Boosted gold reserves could help these economies to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/05/45617358/gold-demand-holds-firm-as-dollar-confidence-wavers" rel="noreferrer noopener">safeguard against de-dollarization</a>, and hedge against inflation and political instability.
Despite gold's impressive climb, its dominance is still constrained by supply limitations and competition from other reserve assets. Notably, the global gold supply is expected to grow by just<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/45828108/global-gold-supply-to-grow-1-in-2025-report-shows" rel="noreferrer noopener"> 1% in 2025</a>, while the U.S. dollar money supply (M2) has grown by<a target="_blank" href="https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_m2_money_supply_yoy" rel="noreferrer noopener"> 4.44%</a> in the last 12 months.
Price Watch: SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) is up 25.6% year-to-date.
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/45891893/is-the-us-secretly-hoarding-gold-expert-says-do-it-first-tell-the-world-after" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Is The U.S. Secretly Hoarding Gold? Expert Says ‘Do It First, Tell the World After'</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by FOTOGRIN via Shutterstock

GLDM

OUNZ

SGOL

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

Gold Surpasses Euro To Become Second-Largest Reserve Asset, Still Far Behind Dollar, ECB Says

On Wednesday, June 11, U.S. markets ended lower. The S&amp;P 500 slipped as investors grew wary over Middle East tensions and a reported embassy evacuation. A mild inflation report eased fears about tariff-driven price hikes, boosting hopes for future rate cuts.
Despite a tentative U.S.-China trade deal, skepticism lingered. Most sectors ended lower, with Amazon and Nvidia weighing heavily on the market.
According to economic data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported annual inflation at 2.4% in May, with core inflation steady at 2.8%, both slightly below expectations.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended lower Wednesday, led by losses in materials, communication services, and consumer discretionary, while energy and utilities closed higher.
The Dow closed almost flat at 42,865.77, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.27% to 6,022.24, and the Nasdaq slid 0.50% to 19,615.88.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Asia Markets Today</h2>
On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed 0.68% lower at 38,161.00, led by losses in the Paper &amp; Pulp, Transport and Communication sectors.
Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 was down 0.31% at 8,565.10, led by losses in the Materials, Metals &amp; Mining and Resources sectors.
India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 1.06% at 24,871.70, and the Nifty 500 slid 1.29% to 23,036.05.
China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was up 0.01% at 3,402.66, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 fell 0.06% to 3,892.20.
Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng closed the session 1.36% lower at 24,035.38.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
The European STOXX 50 index was down 0.91%.
Germany&#8217;s DAX index declined 1.23%.
France&#8217;s CAC 40 fell 0.61%.
U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.16%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Commodities at 05:45 AM ET</h2>
Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.35% at $67.24/bbl, and Brent was down 1.35% at $67.47/bbl.
Oil prices fell as traders weighed rising Middle East tensions and a planned U.S.-Iran meeting following a sharp rally on supply disruption fears.
Natural gas rose 2.54% to $3.595.
Gold traded higher by 1.27% to $3,385.72, Silver slid 0.57% to $36.005, and Copper fell 0.37% to $4.7965.
Gold surged as safe-haven demand rose on Middle East tensions and tariff fears, while a weak dollar and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks boosted broader metal prices.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Futures</h2>
As of 5:45 AM ET, the Dow Jones futures were down 0.57%, the S&amp;P 500 declined 0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 was down 0.31%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Forex</h2>
As of 5:45 AM ET, the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.71% to 97.96, USD/JPY was down 0.64% to 143.61, and USD/AUD slid 0.01% to 1.5381.
The dollar neared a 2025 low, and global stocks slipped as rising Middle East tensions and trade uncertainty pushed investors toward safe havens like gold, the yen, and the franc.
Photo via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Markets Slide, Dollar Softens On Inflation Data And Geopolitical Worries - Global Markets Today While US Slept

3月17日（月）、景気指標が発表された結果、株式市場は上昇で取引を終えた。数週にわたる下落の後、投資家は打撃を受けた株を買い増しを始めた。米国ではニューヨークの製造業の活動が急速に減少し、関税の上昇によるコストが原因で住宅建設業者の景気後退は明らかである。
投資家たちのマーケットの注目は、金曜日に予定されている連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の会合である。金利はこの会合で据え置かれると予想されている。
経済指標によると、2月における米国の小売売上高は予想を下回る0.2%増。この結果は、新たに発表された米国の製造業指数が-20.0にまで下がり、2023年5月以来の最低水準。住宅建設業者の信頼感も2月の42から3月の39に減少。
月曜日、株式市場のS&amp;P500のほとんどのセクターが上昇し、不動産、エネルギー、および日用品関連株は上昇し、一方で、消費関連株は下落。
ダウ平均株価は0.85％上昇し、4万1841.63ドルで取引を終了した。S&amp;P 500は0.64％上昇の5,675.12ドルで取引を終え、ナスダック総合株価指数も0.31％増の17,808.66ドルで終了した。
本日のアジア市場
<ul>
<li>火曜日、日経225株価指数は1.24％上昇し、3万7859.00ポイントで取引を終了した。上昇は、電力、ゴム・化学、石油・プラスチックセクター。</li>
<li>S&amp;P/ASX 200指数は0.08％上昇し、7,860.40ドルで取引を終了。公共関連、ゴールド、A-REITsセクターが上昇。</li>
<li>インドのNifty 50は1.29％上昇し、22,800.35で取引を終了。Nifty 500は1.66％上昇の20,624.05。</li>
<li>上海総合指数は0.11％減の3,429.76で、CSI300は0.27％上昇の4,007.72で取引を終了。</li>
<li>香港のハンセン指数は2.46％急伸し、24,740.57で取引を終了した。</li>
</ul>
05:45ETのユーロ圏市場
<ul>
<li>欧州STOXX 50は0.93%上昇。</li>
<li>ドイツのダックスは1.32%上昇。</li>
<li>フランスのCACは0.64%上昇。</li>
<li>英国のFTSE 100指数は0.50%上昇。</li>
</ul>
05:45ETの商品市場
<ul>
<li>WTI原油はバレルあたり68.35ドルで1.48%上昇、ブレンド原油はバレルあたり1.36%上昇の72.04ドルでの推移。</li>
<li>中東の緊張と中国の景気刺激策により、原油価格は上昇した。しかし、世界経済成長の懸念、米国の関税、ウクライナの停戦不透明さから、これらの上昇は限定的。</li>
<li>天然ガスはバレルあたり3.980ドルで0.95％減少。</li>
<li>金は史上最高値の1オンス3,037ドルを更新。執筆時点では、1オンスで0.82％上昇の3,030.46ドル、銀は1.32％上昇の34.763ドル、銅は0.41％上昇の4.9795ドルで取引を終えている。</li>
</ul>
05:45ETの米国先物市場
ダウ先物は0.02％下落、S&amp;P500先物は0.02％下落、ナスダック100先物は0.10％下落。
05:45ETの外国為替市場
<ul>
<li>米ドル指数は0.08％下落のの103.33、米ドル/円は0.40％上昇の149.81、米ドル/豪ドルは0.01％上昇の1.5664での推移。</li>
<li>FRBの会合を控え、米ドルは下落し、一方でドイツの景気刺激策による期待を前に、ユーロは上昇した。日本銀行による政策決定を前に、円は売られ、中国の人民元は横ばいの動きを見せた。</li>
</ul>
以上
提供：シャッターストック

3月13日（木）の米国市場は大幅下落で取引を終了、米国のインフレデータが好調にもかかわらず新たな関税が明らかになったことでS&amp;P500は<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44317410/sp-500-enters-technical-correction-as-trade-war-fears-rattle-markets" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">調整</a>に入った。
投資家感情は悪化しているが、PPI(生産者物価指数)とCPI(消費者物価指数)が予想よりも落ち着いており、失業保険申請件数も微減で労働市場は強いままだった。主要な株価指数の下落材料は、「マグニフィセント・セブン」をはじめとした大手ハイテク株の大量の売り越しだった。欧州が米国の鉄鋼やアルミに対する報復関税で貿易摩擦の緊張が高まっている。
経済データでは、2月の米国の生産者物価は横ばいで1月の改定値０．6％増の後、予想の０．3％増を下回った。失業保険申請件数は2,000件減の22万件で予想の22万5000件を下回る結果だった。
S&amp;P 500のほとんどのセクターは軒並み値を下げたが、公共事業セクターの銘柄の中には上昇しているものもあった。
ダウ平均は1.30％安の40,813.57、S&amp;P500は1.39％安の5,521.52、ナスダックは1.96％安の17,303.01で取引終了。
本日のアジア市場の動向
<ul>
<li>日経225は、電力、ゴム・化学、石油・プラスチックが値を上げ、0.72％上昇し、終値は37,053.10。</li>
<li>オーストラリアのS&amp;P/ASX200は0.52％上昇し、終値は7,789.70。</li>
<li>インド市場はホーリー祭の休日のため休場。</li>
<li>上海総合指数は1.81％上昇し、終値は3,419.56。CSI300は2.43％上昇、終値は4,006.56。</li>
<li>ハンセン指数は2.12％上昇し、終値は23,959.98。</li>
<li>中国株は、月曜日の中国の政府高官の記者会見を控え、人民銀行の流動性対策や消費刺激策などの新たな政策の期待感から上昇した。</li>
</ul>
ユーロ圏の05:45AM(ET)
<ul>
<li>ユーロ・ストックス50は0.60％上昇。</li>
<li>ドイツのDAXは0.55％上昇。</li>
<li>フランスのCACは0.65％上昇。</li>
<li>イギリスのFTSE100指数は0.41％上昇。</li>
</ul>
05:45AM(ET)現在の商品
WTI原油は1.01％上昇し、1バレル67.21ドルで取引されており、Brentは0.90％上昇の1バレル70.51。
ロシアの原油供給の削減とウクライナとの即時停戦の希望が薄れたことで、原油価格が急騰。
天然ガスは0.63％下落し、1発4.085ドルでの取引。
金は1.36％上昇し、1オンス34.773ドル、銀は0.66％上昇し、1オンス3010.96ドル、銅は0.04％上昇し、1ポンドあたり4.9270ドルでの取引。
貿易戦争の緊張感の高まりと、利上げ予想により、金相場は高値更新が続いている。また、ETFの流入やFRBの政策の見通しが引き続き投資家の感情を後押ししている。
05:45AM(ET)時点の米国先物
ダウ先物は0.54％上昇、S&amp;P500先物は0.76％上昇、ナスダック100先物は1.00％上昇。
05:45AM(ET)時点の外国為替
米ドル指数(DXY)は0.08％上昇の103.92、米ドル/円は0.076％上昇の148.93、米ドル/豪ドルは0.34％減の1.5860での取引。
米ドルの相対的な弱さが一部の通貨にプレッシャーをかけた。　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　以上

2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/fomc">連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合</a>と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。
このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。
2024年第1四半期の3ヶ月間にわたり期待を上回るインフレ率の読書が続いたが、4月のデータは物価<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/05/38842603/us-inflation-falls-as-expected-in-april-bolsters-fed-rate-cut-bets">プレッシャーが緩和され、予測に合致した。</a>
このためCPIデータは、インフレ率が続く低下傾向を示しているのかどうかを確認する上で極めて重要だ。これがあれば、連邦準備制度理事会の2％の物価目標を達成する希望を支えることになる。
このため、水曜日午前8時30分に労働統計局から発表される5月のインフレ報告書の重要性が増している。
5月のインフレ報告書の結果は、同日のプレスカンファレンス中に行われるジェローム・パウエル（Jerome Powell）議長の声明にも大きな影響を与えるだろう。
柔らかいインフレ率の読書は、今年の後半に利上げが行われる可能性を補強する一方、予想を上回るインフレ率はより積極的なアプローチを必要とし、おそらく長期間金利を高めに維持する必要があることを繰り返す可能性がある。
市場参加者は現在、9月の利上げの可能性を50-50で見積もっており、年末までに完全に価格が大きく下落することを期待していない。
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/06/39252500/fed-meeting-preview-economists-predict-steady-rates-in-june-fewer-cuts-ahead">Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">5月のインフレ報告書のプレビュー：経済学者の予想</h3>
<ul>
<li>Econodayが収集した経済学者の予想によると、全体の見出しの年間インフレ率は3.4％で横ばいになると予想されている。</li>
<li>総合的なCPIは、4月の0.3％の上昇から0.1％上昇すると予想されている。</li>
<li>食品およびエネルギー価格の変動を除いた年間のインフレ率は、0.3％の月次の上昇と、4月から変わらない3.6％で推移すると予想されている。</li>
</ul>
ゴールドマンサックスのエコノミスト マヌエル・アベカシス氏は、コンシューマーエレクトロニクスやパーソナルケアなどの分野でのインフレ率の低下が報告されると予想しており、5月のデータに反映されるという見方だ。彼はまた、自動車保険料の持続的な上昇も予測しているが、ペースは徐々に遅くなり、家賃やオーナーの同等の家賃（OER）のインフレ率は横ばいで推移すると予想している。
アベカシス氏は、「今後、2024年の終わりまでの数ヶ月間、月次コアCPIインフレ率は0.2〜0.3％の範囲内に留まると予想している。 2024年12月の年間コアCPIインフレ率は3.5％、コアPCEインフレ率は2.8％と予測している」と述べた。
著名なベテラン市場アナリストのエド・ヤーデニ氏は、5月のCPI報告書が依然としてインフレが抑制されていることを確認すると見ている。
「クリーブランド連銀のインフレ・ナウキャスティング・モデルによると、5月のヘッドラインおよびコアCPIは、前年比でそれぞれ3.36％および3.55％上昇し、これは2021年4月以来の最低の年間コアインフレ率読書となる」とYardeni氏は述べている。
ヤーデニ氏は、住居のインフレ率と中古車の価格の低下を予想しており、自動車関連の他の消費者価格が安定することを期待している。
米国銀行の経済学者マイケル・ゲープン氏は、5月の報告書が4月の好調な推移を継続すると見ている。
ゲープン氏は、「1月から3月までの月次コアCPIインフレ率が0.4％と平均した後、4月には方向性が変わった。 我々は5月のコアCPIとヘッドラインCPIがそれぞれ0.3％と0.1％の上昇となり、年間インフレ率はそれぞれ4.6％と34％で4月と同じになると予想している」とゲープン氏は語った。
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">過去のCPI報告書に対する市場の反応</h3>
2024年5月15日にCPI報告書が発表され、これは、株式、債券、金、および投機的資産を巡る株式市場の反発を引き起こした。
<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500は、この日に SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF トラスト（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>）で1.2％上昇した。</li>
<li>テクヘビーなナスダック100は、 Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>）で1.6％上昇した。</li>
<li>長期国債利回りは下がり、 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF（NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>）は1.4％上昇した。</li>
<li>金は SPDR Gold Trust（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>）で1.3％上昇した。</li>
<li>ビットコイン（CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>）は7.4％上昇し、2か月間で最高の1日となり、今年の最高の3番目の読書を記録した。</li>
<li>Invesco DB USDインデックスブリッシュファンドETF（NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>）がドルの指標として下落し、0.7％下がり、2023年12月中旬以来の最悪の1日の性能を記録した。</li>
</ul>

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