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2020年6月以来、消費者物価指数（CPI）報告が連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）の会合と同日に発表されるのは初めてのことだ。このことは、金融市場にとって潜在的にボラティルな水曜日を予示している。

消費者物価指数がFOMCで異例の報告

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A hotter-than-expected jobs report spurred a premarket rally on Wall Street Friday, showcasing the U.S. economy&#8217;s resilience and easing concerns <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/10/41184080/us-economy-adds-254-000-new-jobs-in-september-smashes-expectations-unemployment-f">over an economic slowdown. </a>
The strong labor data also led traders to rethink the Federal Reserve&#8217;s aggressive rate cuts, resulting in a jump in the dollar and Treasury yields.
What Happened: The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, far exceeding the expected 140,000. This marks an acceleration from August&#8217;s 159,000 figure and well above the 12-month average of 230,000. Payrolls for both July and August were upwardly revised by 55,000 and 17,000, respectively.
Private sector payrolls accounted for 223,000 jobs, while the government added 31,000. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly by 0.1% to 4.1%, beating the forecasted 4.2%.
Wages grew by 0.4% in September, surpassing the expected 0.3%. 
Why It Matters: The stronger-than-expected pace of job addition, coupled with a surprisingly lower unemployment rate and higher wage growth, signals a strong consumer spending outlook, which could lift corporate earnings, particularly as we head into the fourth quarter.
Yet the labor market&#8217;s strength also complicates the Federal Reserve&#8217;s efforts to curb inflation. Higher wages could stoke consumer demand, putting upward pressure on prices, potentially slowing disinflation efforts. This may lead the Fed to delay or scale back anticipated interest rate cuts.
Before the jobs report, the market had priced in a 30% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Following the data release, those odds plummeted to 11%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions:</h3>
<ul>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) jumped 0.9% in premarket trading, edging closer to its recent record highs.</li>
<li>The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks major tech stocks, rallied 1.4%, driven by strong gains in the semiconductor sector. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NYSE">SOXX</a>) surged 2.1%.</li>
<li>Blue chips rose as well, with the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) up by 0.7%.</li>
<li>Small caps outperformed large caps. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallied 1.7%. </li>
<li>Yields on the 10-year Treasury bond soared by 11 basis points to 3.96%. Yields on the policy-sensitive two-year note spiked by 15 basis points to 3.87%.</li>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) tumbled 1.2%. </li>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index, which is tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.7%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Top Gainers Post-Jobs Report:</h3>
Using the Movers function on <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent100424&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>, here are the top performers among U.S. mega-cap stocks in the 30 minutes following the release of the September jobs data.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company Name</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>KLA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KLAC#NASDAQ">KLAC</a>)</td>
<td>$799.25</td>
<td>+3.18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MUFG#NYSE">MUFG</a>)</td>
<td>$10.18</td>
<td>+3.18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMAT#NASDAQ">AMAT</a>)</td>
<td>$205.53</td>
<td>+2.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LRCX#NASDAQ">LRCX</a>)</td>
<td>$83.60</td>
<td>+2.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>)</td>
<td>$166.90</td>
<td>+1.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ARM Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>)</td>
<td>$142.44</td>
<td>+1.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Shopify Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHOP#NYSE">SHOP</a>)</td>
<td>$80.02</td>
<td>+1.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>)</td>
<td>$175.66</td>
<td>+1.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADBE#NASDAQ">ADBE</a>)</td>
<td>$510.58</td>
<td>+1.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>)</td>
<td>$39.96</td>
<td>+1.56%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXN#NASDAQ">TXN</a>)</td>
<td>$204.82</td>
<td>+1.56%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Read Next:
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S&P 500 Nears Record Highs On Hot Jobs Data: Dollar, Treasury Yields Surge As Aggressive Interest Rate Cut Hopes Fade

On Wednesday, October 3rd, U.S. markets closed lower as investors braced for the September payrolls report, which could influence future interest rate decisions. The slight rise in jobless claims signaled labor market softening, while escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, adding to the cautious sentiment and prompting some profit-taking after recent gains.
In economic data, U.S. jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000, slightly above estimates, while the S&amp;P Global services PMI was revised lower to 55.2 in September, down from 55.7 in August. The composite PMI also dipped to 54.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors ended in the red, with consumer discretionary, materials, and real estate stocks leading losses, while energy and information technology sectors rose.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.44% and closed at 42,011.59. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day lower by 0.17% at 5,699.94, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.04%, finishing the session at 17,918.48.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.16% at 38,613.50, led by gains in the Precision Instruments, Insurance, and Railway &amp; Bus sectors.</li>
<li>Australia's S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day lower by 0.67% at 8,150.00, led by losses in the Metals &amp; Mining, Materials and IT sectors.</li>
<li>India's Nifty 50 closed lower by 0.79% at 25,049.85, and the Nifty 500 was down 0.84% to 23,556.85.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.82%, ending the day at 22,736.87.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.21%.</li>
<li>Germany's DAX was up 0.33%.</li>
<li>France's CAC rose 0.41%.</li>
<li>U.K.'s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.45%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.99% at $74.47/bbl, and Brent was up 1.00% at $78.41/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose driven by fears of Middle East tensions disrupting crude flows despite ample global supply. Brent and WTI crude gained around 9% this week as Israel-Iran tensions and Libya's production rebound influenced market dynamics.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.24% at $2.963.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.03% at $2,678.45, Silver fell 0.52% to $32.290, and Copper gained 0.21% to $4.5627.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.30%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index fell 0.10% to 101.89, the USD/JPY was down 0.31% to 146.47, and the USD/AUD declined 0.05% to 1.4610.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

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Geopolitical Concerns Mount, Crude Oil Gains, Asia And Europe Markets Mixed - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Economic activity in the U.S. services sector continued to expand in September, as the Services PMI reached 54.9%, its highest level since February 2023, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/pmi">marking a robust recovery</a>.
According to the Services ISM Report On Business released on Thursday, this increase of 3.4 percentage points from August's 51.5% reflects strong growth in business activity and new orders. 
The report raises concerns about how it may influence upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts. With the services sector expanding for 49 of the last 52 months, the data suggests resilient demand, which could influence the Fed's decision on the size of the anticipated November cut.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see a 65.6% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in November, with a 34.4% chance of a 50-basis point cut.
Also on Thursday, the S&amp;P Global US Services PMI Business Activity Index posted 55.2 in September. That&#8217;s slightly down from 55.7 in August. This marked the 20th consecutive month of expansion in services activity. New orders continued to rise solidly, although input prices increased at the joint-fastest pace in a year, driven by salary pressures and higher costs for manufactured goods.
Employment dropped for the second month, but companies remained cautious about hiring due to strong cost pressures. Business confidence declined sharply to its lowest level since October 2022 as concerns about an economic slowdown grew.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">September ISM Services PMI Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>The Services PMI rose to 54.9% in September, the highest reading since February 2023.</li>
<li>Business activity expanded significantly, with the Business Activity Index climbing to 59.9%.</li>
<li>The New Orders Index increased to 59.4%, up from 53% in August.</li>
<li>The Employment Index contracted to 48.1%, down from 50.2% in August.</li>
<li>The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion, hitting 52.1%.</li>
<li>Panelists expressed concerns over political uncertainty and labor costs, despite positive supply chain improvements.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Experts React To September Data</h3>
Steve Miller, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, highlighted the continued expansion in services. "Twelve industries reported growth in September, up two from the 10 industries reporting growth in August,&#8221; he said.
&#8220;The Supplier Deliveries Index returned to expansion in September, indicating slower delivery performance,&#8221; Miller added. &#8220;The stronger growth indicated by the index data was generally supported by panelists' comments; however, concerns over political uncertainty are more prevalent than last month&#8221;
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence, said, &#8220;U.S. service sector businesses reported a strong end to the third quarter, with output continuing to grow at one of the fastest rates seen over the past two-and-a-half years.&#8221; 
Still, he also noted that &#8220;companies have become increasingly concerned about the outlook… with business confidence slumping in September amid uncertainty caused by the upcoming election as well as perceptions of rising recession risks.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Markets were trading lower on Thursday following the data release.
The S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), was trading 0.5% lower.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), was up 0.31%
Other major asset movements following the ISM Services PMI print included: 
<ul>
<li>The Nasdaq 100, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), tracking long-dated Treasuries, was down 0.63%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), was down 0.3%.</li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Services Sector Surges In September, Raising Questions For Fed's November Rate Cut

On Wednesday, October 2nd, U.S. markets closed slightly higher, as the S&amp;P 500 ended flat. Technology stocks gained, driven by Nvidia, while concerns over Middle East tensions and upcoming U.S. labor data kept investors cautious. Tesla shares fell, and attention shifted to Friday&#8217;s key labor report.
In economic data, U.S. private businesses added 143,000 workers in September, surpassing August&#8217;s revised 103,000 and beating market estimates of 124,000, according to ADP.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors fell, led by consumer stocks, while energy and tech sectors closed higher.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.09% and closed at 42,196.52. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.01% at 5,709.54, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.08%, finishing the session at 17,925.12.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 2.01% at 38,552.50, led by gains in the Mining, Chemical, Petroleum &amp; Plastic and Real Estate sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.09% at 8,205.20, led by gains in the A-REITs, Telecoms Services and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 closed lower by 2.12% at 25,250.10, and the Nifty 500 was down 2.13% to 23,755.45.</li>
<li>China Markets closed for the National Day holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng slid 1.47%, ending the day at 22,113.51.</li>
<li>Global stocks dipped as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel&#8217;s bombing of Beirut, raised concerns about oil supply disruptions. Weak business data from Europe and mixed performances in Asia contributed to the market downturn. Despite these pressures, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei rose, driven by the new prime minister&#8217;s commitment to low rates.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.68%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was down 0.57%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.85%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.23%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 2.07% at $71.57/bbl, and Brent was up 1.91% at $75.31/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose due to concerns over a potential widening Middle East conflict, which could disrupt crude supplies despite strong global supply levels. Israel&#8217;s airstrikes on Beirut heightened geopolitical tensions, but swelling U.S. crude inventories suggested the market remains well-supplied.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was up 1.00% at $2.915.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.15% at $2,665.30, Silver fell 0.60% to $31.730, and Copper declined 1.11% to $4.5970.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Dow futures were down 0.33%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.32%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.46%.</li>
<li>U.S. stock futures dropped amid Middle East tensions and anticipation of the jobs report. Oil prices rose, while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41156870/levi-strauss-considers-dockers-sale-what-this-means-for-the-iconic-denim-brand" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Levi Strauss</a> (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LEVI#NYSE">LEVI</a>) and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41145803/tesla-q3-deliveries-step-in-the-right-direction-analyst-says-more-heavy-lifting-nee" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla</a> (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) saw premarket declines.</li>
</ul>
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.91, the USD/JPY rose 0.27% to 146.88, and the USD/AUD gained 0.56% to 1.4605.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

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Asia Mixed, Europe Markets Fall While Crude Rises On Middle East Tensions – Global Markets Today While US Slept

The U.S. private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 124,000 jobs and reflecting a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/labor-market">rebound in job creation</a> following a five-month slowdown, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday. 
Pay growth for both job-stayers and job-changers continued to slow, indicating a cooling labor market. Notably, the manufacturing sector added jobs for the first time since April, while job losses were confined to the information sector.
"Stronger hiring didn't require stronger pay growth last month," said Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist. "Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But their premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January."
The ADP report is often viewed as a preview of the government's official jobs data, set to be released on Friday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ADP National Employment Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Private employers added 143,000 jobs in September.</li>
<li>Goods-producing sectors added 42,000 jobs, with 14,000 in natural resources/mining and 26,000 in construction.</li>
<li>Service-providing sectors saw 101,000 new jobs, with 34,000 added in leisure/hospitality and 20,000 in professional/business services.</li>
<li>Job-stayers&#8217; annual pay growth slowed to 4.7%, while job-changers&#8217; pay gains fell to 6.6%.</li>
<li>The South led all U.S. regions, adding 61,000 jobs, while small establishments (1-19 employees) lost 13,000 jobs.</li>
<li>Large establishments (500+ employees) saw the most growth, with 86,000 jobs added.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.12%.</li>
<li>Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), fell 0.45%.</li>
<li>Futures on U.S. equity indices fell during the premarket trading Wednesday. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&amp;P 500 were down by 0.07% and 0.23%, respectively, by 8:20 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>On Tuesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed 0.9% lower, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) was down 1.39%.</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41132441/billionaire-investor-who-predicted-2000-2008-crashes-says-market-euphoria-will-top-soon-warns-of-bla">Billionaire Investor Who Predicted 2000, 2008 Crashes Says Market Euphoria Will Top Soon, Warns Of &#8216;Black Swan Event&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
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Private Sector Job Gains Outpace Forecasts In September As US Adds 143,000 Jobs

Editor&#8217;s Note: This article has been updated to clarify the status of job openings in August.
Economic data released Tuesday brought the latest insights for the U.S. manufacturing sector, drawing attention to how the Federal Reserve may <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/41102248/stocks-slip-as-powell-says-future-interest-rate-cuts-hinge-on-data-economy-is-in-solid-shape-we-inte">respond to these developments. </a>
Meanwhile, U.S. job openings data for August released on Tuesday indicated that openings remained steady, with hires and separations showing little change.
Markets now turn to key reports later this week, including the ADP employment change for August on Wednesday and Friday&#8217;s non-farm payroll, unemployment, and wage growth reports.
Two manufacturing activity indicators have been released, showing the following values:
<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 47.3 for September, above expectation of 47, and below 47.9 in August. </li>
<li>The ISM Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 47.2 for September, below the expectation of 47.5, and matching August&#8217;s 47.2.</li>
</ul>
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/41092733/ed-yardeni-points-out-skills-mismatch-in-labor-market-amid-federal-reserves-focus-o">Ed Yardeni Points Out Skills Mismatch In Labor Market Amid Federal Reserve&#8217;s Focus On Reducing Unemployment: &#8216;We Have A Lot Of Work To Do&#8230;&#8217;</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ISM Manufacturing PMI For September: Key Takeaways</h2>
<ul>
<li>Manufacturing Sector Contraction: The manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, with the PMI holding steady at 47.2%, the same as in August. This marks the 22nd contraction in the last 23 months. According to ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair, Timothy Fiore, &#8220;U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in September, and at the same rate compared to last month.&#8221;</li>
<li>Weak Demand and Slowing Production: The New Orders Index remained in contraction at 46.1%, while production slightly improved to 49.8%, nearing expansion but still below the 50% threshold. Fiore noted that &#8220;Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative.&#8221;</li>
<li>Prices and Employment Decline: The Prices Index fell into contraction at 48.3%, down from 54% in August. Employment also fell faster, with the Employment Index dropping to 43.9%. Fiore explained, &#8220;Employment shrunk at a faster rate while production approached expansion.&#8221;</li>
<li>Supplier Deliveries and Inventories: The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52.2%, signaling slower deliveries, while the Inventories Index fell sharply to 43.9%. Fiore commented, &#8220;inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — generally continued to accommodate future demand growth.&#8221;</li>
<li>Manufacturing GDP Decline: Seventy-seven percent of the manufacturing GDP contracted in September, up from 65% in August, indicating a worsening trend. Fiore highlighted that &#8220;the share of manufacturing sector GDP registering a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent&#8230; was 41 percent in September.&#8221; Only the Food, Beverage &amp; Tobacco industry expanded among the largest sectors.</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Job Openings Steady In August</h2>
The Department of Labor also released the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) for August.
<ul>
<li>Job Openings Steady in August: The number of job openings remained relatively unchanged at 8 million by the end of August, but decreased by 1.3 million compared to a year ago. The job openings rate held steady at 4.8%.</li>
<li>Hires Unchanged: In August, the number of hires stayed consistent at 5.3 million, with a hire rate of 3.3%. This shows stability in hiring activity across sectors.</li>
<li>Quits Declining: The number of quits trended downward to 3.1 million in August, representing a drop of 159,000. The quits rate remained at 1.9%, signaling a slight reduction in voluntary job separations.</li>
<li>Layoffs and Discharges Steady: Layoffs and discharges remained largely unchanged at 1.6 million, with a rate of 1.0%. A notable decrease in layoffs occurred in health care and social assistance (-52,000).</li>
<li>Industry-Specific Changes: Job openings increased in the construction (+138,000) and state/local government sectors (+78,000), while decreases were seen in other services (-93,000). Separations rose in professional and business services (+149,000) but fell in accommodation and food services (-111,000).</li>
</ul>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h2>
Before the data release, traders estimated a 60.5% chance of a quarter-point rate cut and a 39.5% chance of a half-point cut. After the data release, these probabilities shifted slightly to 59.5% for a quarter-point cut and 40.5% for a half-point cut.
Stocks were volatile on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 index, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) down 1.22% as of 10:15 a.m. ET.
The dollar rose, with the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>),&nbsp;up 0.2%.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Topics

US Manufacturing Contracts In September, Raising Questions About Fed's Next Move On Interest Rate Cuts (CORRECTED)

The Federal Reserve&#8217;s preferred measure of inflation in August came in below expectations, showing a decline from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/08/40650834/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-short-of-expectations-in-july-personal-spend">July&#8217;s inflation rate.</a>
According to government data released Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.2% in August compared to the same period last year. The reading was below the 2.3% analysts were expecting and a drop from July&#8217;s 2.5%. 
The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 2.7% year-over-year in August, matching analyst expectations and 0.1% higher than July&#8217;s number.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Personal Income And Outlays For August: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Personal income increased by $50.5 billion (0.2%) in August, with disposable personal income up $34.2 billion (0.2%) and personal consumption expenditures up $47.2 billion (0.2%).</li>
<li>The PCE price index rose 0.1% in August, with a 0.1% increase in core inflation excluding food and energy. Real DPI and real PCE both increased by 0.1%.</li>
<li>Goods spending decreased by $7.6 billion, while services spending surged by $54.8 billion, primarily in housing and financial services. Motor vehicle purchases saw the largest decline in goods.</li>
<li>The PCE price index is up 2.2% year-over-year, with a 2.7% increase excluding food and energy. Energy prices fell by 5%, while food prices rose by 1.1%.</li>
<li>Personal saving rate stood at 4.8%, with personal saving totaling $1.05 trillion in August. Personal outlays increased by $48.3 billion.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
The U.S dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rose 0.2% after the release. 
Futures on major U.S. equity indices soared in premarket trading Friday. Contracts on the S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), were 0.22% higher. Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), were 0.17% higher premarket.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Services Drive Inflation Upward</h3>
In August, the key drivers of inflation primarily stemmed from an increase in the cost of services, particularly in the housing, financial services, and insurance sectors. These categories saw the most significant price growth, contributing to the overall PCE index rise. Spending on services continued to rise, reflecting both higher demand and increasing service costs. On the other hand, goods experienced a slight decline in prices, which somewhat balanced out the overall inflationary pressure.
Energy prices, particularly for gasoline and other energy-related goods, continued their downward trend in August, moderating overall inflation. Energy prices fell significantly compared to the same time last year, which helped to temper the impact of rising prices in other categories. This was in stark contrast to earlier periods when energy costs had been a more substantial inflationary driver.
Food prices saw a modest increase in August, though their contribution to inflation was relatively mild compared to other categories. The food sector&#8217;s price rise was driven mainly by off-premises consumption, such as groceries, while restaurant and dining prices remained more stable. These food price increases, while noticeable, did not have as large of an impact on overall inflation as the service sector did.
Core inflation, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, remained steady. This was largely due to persistent price increases in durable goods, like automobiles, and ongoing inflation in service categories. Even though goods prices decreased slightly, the overall inflationary trend was influenced by steady price pressures in essential service sectors, contributing to the sustained core inflation rate in August.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/previews/24/09/41054701/inflation-data-will-be-watched-like-a-hawk-friday-after-feds-interest-rate-cuts">Inflation Data &#8216;Will Be Watched Like A Hawk&#8217; Friday After Fed&#8217;s Interest Rate Cuts</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock.

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Comes In Below Expectations For August, Easing Concerns About Rising Prices

U.S. consumer confidence experienced a sharp and unexpected decline in September due to mounting concerns over the labor market, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve might implement a consecutive 50-basis-point rate cut <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">at its November meeting.</a>
The index measured by The Conference Board fell from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August to 98.7 in September, missing expectations of 103.8. 
"Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years," said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, commented, adding that the monthly decline was the largest since August 2021.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Consumer Confidence Worsens As Labor Market, Inflation Conditions Turn Bleaker </h3>
Peterson highlighted that all five components of the index deteriorated, reflecting consumers' negative assessments of both current business conditions and the labor market.
Consumers expressed more pessimism about future job availability and income prospects, with those aged 35 to 54 showing the sharpest decline in confidence. Among income groups, the largest drop occurred in households earning under $50,000 annually.
In terms of labor market views, 30.9% of consumers reported jobs as "plentiful" in September, down from 32.7% in August.
Those saying jobs were &#8220;hard to get&#8221; rose to 18.3%, up from 16.8%. Looking forward, 18.5% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 19.1%, while 18.3% anticipated fewer job openings, up from 17%.
Inflation expectations also crept higher in September, with consumers expecting a 5.2% inflation rate over the next year, up from the prior month, though still well below the 7.9% peak in March 2022. Despite some declines in goods prices, mentions of inflation remained the top issue affecting consumers&#8217; economic outlook.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Reactions </h3>
Harris Financial Group managing partner Jamie Cox expressed concerns: &#8220;It&#8217;s never good to see consumer confidence fall this much. Consumers are clearly worried about global conflicts, the upcoming elections, and stubbornly high costs for food and credit.&#8221;
He added that another larger rate cut by Federal Reserve might be necessary. &#8220;A 50-basis-point cut seems more appropriate in light of these data.
Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, highlighted that consumer confidence plays a critical role in driving the economy, which relies heavily on consumer spending. &#8220;Confidence coming in lower than expected could trigger more market volatility, which typically spikes in late September,&#8221; Bolvin said.
She also explained that lower confidence may result in softer demand, which could help cool inflation. &#8220;In the long term, this could ease inflationary pressures, which is a positive for the consumer.&#8221;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions Have Been Swift</h3>
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) dipped 0.3% at 11:00 a.m. in New York, and Treasury yields fell as investors raised their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut. 
The probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in November rose to 58.1%, up from 53% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) stalled after hitting record highs on Thursday. Gold prices, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), continued their ascent, propelled by fresh stimulus measures in China. 
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/09/41003814/chinese-stocks-jump-as-central-bank-unveils-major-stimulus-to-spur-economy-a-step-in-the-right-direc">Chinese Stocks Jump As Central Bank Unveils Major Stimulus To Spur Economy: &#8216;A Step In The Right Direction&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>

Tech

Consumer Confidence Tumbles As Concerns Over Labor Market Grow, Odds Rise For 50-Basis-Point Interest Rate Cut In November

Economic activity in the U.S. private sector grew at a slightly faster pace than anticipated in September, marking a stark contrast between the healthy services sector and the struggling manufacturing industry, according to the flash estimates from the Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index (PMI) report released by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/macro-economic-events">S&amp;P Global on Monday.</a>
Despite better-than-expected readings for both the composite and services PMIs, two concerning trends emerged from September's surveys. 
First, the manufacturing sector&#8217; deepened contraction&#8217;s contraction deepened, with output levels hitting their lowest level since December 2023. Second, inflationary pressures resurfaced, notably in the same month the Federal Reserve announced <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40965372/fed-delivers-large-interest-rate-cut-in-bid-to-sustain-labor-market-stocks-gold-set-new-record-h">a 50-basis-point interest rate cut</a>, with signals of further cuts ahead.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">September Flash PMI Reports: Key Highlights</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Index</th>
<th>September 2024</th>
<th>August 2024</th>
<th>Forecast (September)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Composite PMI</td>
<td>54.4</td>
<td>54.6</td>
<td>54.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Services PMI</td>
<td>55.4</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>55.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Manufacturing PMI</td>
<td>47.0</td>
<td>47.9</td>
<td>48.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<ul>
<li>Composite PMI: Eased from 54.6 in August to 54.4 but slightly outpaced the forecast of 54.3, as tracked by TradingEconomics.</li>
<li>Services PMI: Slowed from 55.7 to 55.4, still above the expected 55.3, signaling ongoing expansion.</li>
<li>Manufacturing PMI: Contracted more sharply, falling from 47.9 to 47, missing the expected improvement to 48.9.</li>
<li>Manufacturing orders shrunk and business expectations for the year ahead hit a two-year low, primarily due to rising political uncertainty ahead of the upcoming presidential election. This uncertainty is leading companies to freeze hiring and cut jobs, with employment levels falling for the second consecutive month.</li>
<li>Manufacturing payrolls were cut at the sharpest pace since June 2020, with factory job reductions at their steepest since January 2010 as firms grapple with weak demand.</li>
<li>September saw a marked a worrisome increase in average prices for goods and services, with the fastest rise since March. This was the first acceleration in selling price inflation in four months, intensifying concerns about the new Federal Reserve&#8217;s monetary policy easing stance.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Insights</h3>
&#8220;The early survey indicators for September point to an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace […]. A reacceleration of inflation is meanwhile also signalled, suggesting the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target as it seeks to sustain the economic upturn,&#8221; said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.
The survey aligns with a &#8220;healthy&#8221; third-quarter GDP growth estimate of 2.2% annualized, Williamson said, but emphasized the economy&#8217;s overreliance on the services sector and a drop in business confidence tied to political instability.
Regarding the price pressures increase, he advised the Fed to move cautiously in implementing further rate cuts.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
<ul>
<li>U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The dollar strengthened, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) trading 0.3% higher in early New York trading.</li>
<li>Treasury Yields: Both the 10-year yield and 30-year yield climbed by 5 basis points, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down by 0.8%.</li>
<li>Stock Market: The S&amp;P 500 – tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) – edged up 0.4%, staying within striking distance of last week's all-time highs.</li>
</ul>
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</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Large Cap

US Services Growth Tops Estimate, Contraction In Manufacturing Worsens: 'Reacceleration Of Inflation'

On Thursday, September 19, U.S. markets closed higher following the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 50-basis-point rate cut, which also signaled potential further reductions.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed recession risks, while analysts remained hopeful for a soft landing amid inflation control efforts. Tesla, Apple, Meta, and Nvidia saw gains, supported by better-than-expected jobless claims and renewed market optimism.
According to economic data, the U.S. reported a Q2 current account deficit of $266.8 billion, exceeding estimates of $260 billion. Initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 219,000 for the week ending September 14, beating expectations of 230,000.
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors closed positively, led by consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology stocks. However, consumer staples and utilities stocks diverged, closing the session lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.26% and closed at 42,025.19. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 1.70% at 5,713.64, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.51%, finishing the session at 18,013.98.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 1.67% at 37,739.50, led by gains in the Automobiles &amp; Parts, Power and Rubber sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.21% at 8,209.50, led by gains in the Consumer Discretionary, Gold, and IT sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 rose 1.58% to 25,816.85, while the Nifty 500 rose 1.55% to 24,223.10.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite closed higher by 0.03% at 2,736.81, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.16%, ending the day at 3,201.05.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng rose 1.36%, ending the day at 18,258.57.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.91%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was down 0.98%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC fell 0.89%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.74%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.82% at $70.58/bbl, and Brent was down 0.81% at $74.28/bbl.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.21% at $2.343.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.74% at $2,633.50, Silver gained 0.32% to $31.523, and Copper rose 0.33% to $4.3615.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were down 0.01%, S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.39%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index rose 0.16% to 100.78, the USD/JPY rose 0.88% to 143.88, and the USD/AUD gained 0.08% to 1.4688.</li>
<li>Global stocks neared record highs, fueled by the Fed&#8217;s rate cut, while the yen weakened after Japan&#8217;s central bank held rates. European stocks fell, and U.S. markets remained optimistic. Gold hit a record, and oil posted weekly gains.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Advance, Europe Edges Lower And Gold Clocks New High At $2,630 – Global Markets Overview

On Wednesday, September 18th, U.S. markets closed lower, with modest losses after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, its first cut in over four years. Despite initial gains, markets weakened, with the S&amp;P 500 and Dow closing lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.04% and closed at 41,606.18. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.03% at 5,634.58, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%, finishing the session at 17,628.06.
Consumer staples, utilities, and tech stocks led losses on the S&amp;P 500, while energy and communication services stocks defied the market trend, closing higher.
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, its first cut in over four years, breaking a 12-month pause. Economic data showed U.S. housing starts rose 9.6% in August, and building permits climbed 4.9% to 1.475 million.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Thursday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 2.15% at 37,120.50, led by gains in the Food, Fishery and Services sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.61% at 8,191.90, led by gains in the Materials, Metals &amp; Mining and Resources sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.15% at 25,415.80, while Nifty 500 was down by 0.19% at 23,853.95.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite closed higher by 0.69% at 2,736.02, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.79% and ended the day at 3,196.04.  </li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng rose 2.00%, ending the day at 18,013.16.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 1.69%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was up 1.39%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC rose 1.90%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 1.21%.</li>
<li>European stocks rose after the U.S. Fed&#8217;s 50-basis-point rate cut, boosting hopes for a soft landing. Miners led gains, while real estate, tech, and banks also climbed.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.09% at $70.64/bbl, and Brent was up 1.00% at $74.42/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose following a large U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, which typically boosts economic activity and energy demand. However, concerns about weaker global demand, particularly from China&#8217;s slowing economy, kept prices below $75.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was up 1.18% at $2.311.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.64% at $2,615.20, Silver gained 2.69% to $31.515, and Copper rose 1.60% to $4.3678.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 1.10%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 1.51%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 1.98%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.04% to 100.55, USD/JPY was up 0.49% at 142.96, and USD/AUD declined 1.02% to 1.4632.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia And Europe Up, Crude And Gold Gain Following Fed's Rate Cut - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Wall Street reacted with unease to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s remarks following a landmark decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, bringing it down to a target range <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40927293/powell-defends-0-5-interest-rate-drop-as-right-thing-for-the-economy-doubles-down">of 4.75% to 5%. </a>
The Federal Reserve&#8217;s highly anticipated dot plot, which outlines each policymaker&#8217;s rate path preference, indicated that policymakers <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40926026/federal-reserve-delivers-bold-0-5-rate-cut-signals-further-easing-ahead">anticipate further easing ahead</a>. The dot plot signaled that the Fed is likely to cut rates by a quarter percentage point at each of the next two decisions. Looking further ahead, it suggests an additional rate reduction of at least another percentage point in 2025.
Despite the initial market euphoria following the 50-basis-point rate cut, Powell&#8217;s cautious remarks on the future rate path have injected uncertainty into the markets.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/09/40928301/interest-rates-in-free-fall-what-it-means-for-mortgages-credit-cards-and-your-wallet-a">Interest Rates In Free-Fall &#8211; What It Means For Mortgages, Credit Cards And Your Wallet As The Federal Reserve Springs Into Action For First Time In 4 Years</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Response To Rate Cut, Powell&#8217;s Remarks</h3>
Initially, the S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), surged to record highs. Gold prices, represented by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), also hit all-time highs as the U.S. dollar weakened.
Interest-rate sensitive stocks were the largest gainers between 2 p.m. and 2:35 p.m. ET, with small caps outperforming large-cap counterparts.
Yet, Powell&#8217;s cautionary comments during the press conference caused a reversal in market sentiment.
Here&#8217;s how major asset classes closed on the Fed&#8217;s decision day:
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar, which many believed would plummet in a 50-basis-point cut scenario, instead recouped its losses and rallied to weekly highs. The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) closed 0.1% higher.</li>
<li>U.S. large-cap indices all ended the day in the red, paring back gains made immediately after the rate decision. The S&amp;P 500 finished 0.3% lower, while the Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), declined by 0.4%.</li>
<li>Small caps managed to close unchanged for the day, but they still gave back all their post-rate-cut gains.</li>
<li>Sector-wise, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) was the only sector to close in positive territory, up 0.2%. </li>
<li>The worst performer was the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), which fell 1%.</li>
<li>Gold dropped 0.4% to $2,555 per ounce, hitting levels last seen on Thursday of the previous week.</li>
<li>Silver and oil also saw robust declines, closing 2.1% and 1.2% lower, respectively.</li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 1.1% to $59,717.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Powell&#8217;s Caution Stirs Investor Uncertainty</h3>
While defending the 50-basis-point rate cut, Powell tempered market enthusiasm, emphasizing that such a cut should not be seen as a new norm. His key statements on Wednesday included:
<ul>
<li>&#8220;No one should look at today and think this is the new pace.&#8221;</li>
<li>&#8220;We can go quicker or slower, or pause, on rate cuts if it is appropriate.&#8221;</li>
<li>&#8220;There is nothing in our projections that suggest we are in a rush.&#8221;</li>
<li>&#8220;If the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
These comments signaled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, disappointing investors who had hoped for a more aggressive easing cycle.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Insights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial: &#8220;We learned from today's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that the Fed is interested in getting to a neutral fed funds rate as quickly as possible.&#8221;</li>
<li>John Lynch, Comerica Wealth Management: &#8220;The Fed was more aggressive than I expected, since 50 basis point cuts are historically associated with crises. I don't consider 2% GDP, 4.2% unemployment rate, and 15% profit growth forecasts for 2025 as a crisis.&#8221;</li>
<li>Bill Adams, Comerica Bank: &#8220;With the Fed pivoting, interest rates will be substantially lower over the next six to twelve months. That is very welcome news for credit-sensitive sectors of the economy like housing, manufacturing, and retailers of cars and other big-ticket consumer products.&#8221;</li>
<li>Chris Zaccarelli, Independent Advisor Alliance: &#8220;Lowering interest rates now should allow the market to hit all-time highs again by the end of this year, and more gains for next year.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40923390/20-s-p-500-stocks-that-move-the-most-when-the-fed-starts-cutting-interest-rates">20 S&amp;P 500 Stocks That Move The Most When The Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

Powell's Hawkish Tone Tempers Market Excitement After Historic 50-Basis-Point Interest Rate Cut, Economist Sees 'Welcome News For Credit-Sensitive Sectors'

Editor&#8217;s note: This story has been updated with additional details. 
The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 50 basis points Wednesday at its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to a range <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40921827/fed-decision-is-here-5-things-investors-need-to-know-ahead-of-wednesdays-pivotal-in">of 4.75% to 5%. </a>This marks the first rate cut in over four years and breaks a streak of 12 consecutive months with rates held steady.
The decision caught Wall Street analysts off guard who had largely anticipated a more modest 25-basis-point cut. The larger reduction resonated with investor sentiment, which had leaned toward a more aggressive easing approach at the start of the rate-cut cycle.
&#8220;The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,&#8221; the FOMC statement says.
In its updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed marginally revised its forecasts. Economic growth for the current year was lowered to 2%, down from 2.1% in June, while projections for 2025 and 2026 were unchanged. Inflation projections saw downward revisions for both 2024 and 2025, while the unemployment rate was revised upward across 2024, 2025 and 2026.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fed&#8217;s Summary of Economic Projections (Sept. 2024)</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Variable</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025</th>
<th>2026</th>
<th>2027</th>
<th>Longer Run</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Change in real GDP</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Unemployment rate</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>4.3</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>4.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PCE inflation</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
<td>2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core PCE inflation</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Federal funds rate</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jun projection</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td></td>
<td>2.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Dot Plot Signals More Rate Cuts Ahead</h3>
The updated quarterly Dot Plot — a tool used by the FOMC to signal its future policy intentions — indicates a more aggressive path for rate cuts than previously projected.
The September median projection now points to 100 basis points of cuts in 2024, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to a midpoint of 4.4% by the end of this year. This suggests the Fed could enact 25 basis-point cuts at both the November and December meetings.
Further into the future, the Dot Plot signals the fed funds rate will drop to between 3.25% and 3.5% by the end of 2025, implying an additional 100 basis points of cuts. By the end of 2026 and the newly introduced projections for 2027, interest rates are expected to fall to 2.9%. 
This outlook marks a significant shift from the Fed&#8217;s June projections, which anticipated only one rate cut in 2024, followed by 100 basis points of cuts in both 2025 and 2026.
All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#8216;s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, where he is expected to provide further insights into the central bank&#8217;s decision and its outlook for the economy.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar Tumbles; S&amp;P 500, Gold Mark All-Time Highs; Small Caps Rocket</h3>
The 50-basis-point rate cut triggered a sharp fall in the value of the U.S. dollar, with the greenback weakening across the board, particularly against the Japanese yen which rose by 1%. 
The&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) tumbled 0.3% after the Fed&#8217;s decision. 
Treasury yields also fell markedly, pushing bonds higher. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 0.2%. 
Gold prices soared 1%, with the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) setting fresh all-time highs. The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.4%, also hitting record highs. 
Small caps were the absolute winner in the post-Fed decision, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rallying by 1.5%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Key Takeaways:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Rate decision: 50 basis points cut to 4.75%–5%.</li>
<li>Economic projections: Lower growth and inflation forecasts, higher unemployment projections.</li>
<li>Potential rate path: Dot plot signals 50 basis points more in cuts in 2024 and another 100 basis points in 2025. </li>
</ul>
Now read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40923390/20-s-p-500-stocks-that-move-the-most-when-the-fed-starts-cutting-interest-rates">20 S&amp;P 500 Stocks That Move The Most When The Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rates</a></li>
</ul>
&nbsp;Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Federal Reserve Delivers Bold 0.5% Interest Rate Cut, Signals Further Easing Ahead (UPDATED)

On Tuesday, September 17th, U.S. markets closed mixed, with stocks ending nearly flat after reaching record highs. Strong economic data alleviated slowdown concerns as investors awaited the Federal Reserve&#8217;s first anticipated rate cut in over four years, addressing potential economic weakness amid mixed job market signals.
According to economic data, U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in August, beating expectations of a decline of 0.2%. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 41 in September, while business inventories grew 0.4% in July, exceeding the expected 0.3% rise.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Most S&amp;P 500 sectors rose on Tuesday, led by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials, while healthcare and consumer staples closed lower.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.04% and closed at 41,606.18. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.03% at 5,634.58, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%, finishing the session at 17,628.06.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session higher by 0.37% at 36,338.50, led by gains in the Shipbuilding, Paper &amp; Pulp, and Transportation Equipment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.01% at 8,142.10, led by gains in the Utilities, Energy, and Financials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.23% at 25,360.75, and the Nifty 500 was down by 0.38% at 23,875.75.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite closed higher by 0.49% at 2,717.28, and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 was up 0.37% and ended the day at 3,171.01.  </li>
<li>Hong Kong markets were closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index declined 0.35%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX was lower by 0.10%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was down 0.37%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.58%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 1.56% at $68.87/bbl, and Brent was down 1.52% at $72.56/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices fell after two days of gains as U.S. crude and fuel inventories rose, offsetting Middle East tensions and the potential impacts of a U.S. interest rate cut.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was down 0.43% at $2.314.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.14% at $2,595.75, Silver fell 0.26% to $30.898, and Copper rose 0.59% to $4.2980.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:30 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.12%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.11%.
Forex at 05:30 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.75, the USD/JPY was down 0.49% to 141.72, and the USD/AUD declined 0.36% to 1.4746.</li>
<li>The dollar gave up some of its overnight gains, especially against the yen, as traders reconsidered the chances of a big Federal Reserve rate cut. Strong U.S. retail sales data reduced the need for aggressive easing, while bond yields increased slightly.</li>
</ul>
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Mostly Up, Europe Mixed; Gold Gains As And Dollar Softens - Global Markets Today While US Slept

Editor&#8217;s note: This story has been updated to correct the headline and to reflect that odds of a larger Federal Reserve interest rate cut fell after Tuesday&#8217;s economic data. The story has been updated with additional information on Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities. 
U.S. retail sales rose more than expected by 0.1% month-over-month in August, signaling a resilient consumer spending momentum in the middle <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40883023/how-second-tier-economic-data-tuesday-could-sway-the-feds-rate-decision-it-will-be-">of the third quarter.</a>
Retail sales slowed significantly from July&#8217;s upwardly revised growth; however, as they increased more than anticipated, this could boost the chances of a smaller interest rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40878710/investors-bet-on-50-basis-point-rate-cut-wall-street-analysts-urge-caution-this-is-">interest rate decision Wednesday</a>. 
Before the retail sales data was released, market-implied probabilities pointed to a 67% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, compared to a 33% likelihood of a smaller 25-basis-point cut, according to CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool. As of midday Tuesday, FedWatch shows a 63% chance of a larger 50-basis-point cut and a 37% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">August Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Retail sales rose by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August, beating the expected 0.2% decline as per TradingEconomics&#8217; consensus.</li>
<li>July&#8217;s retail sales growth was upwardly revised from 1% to 1.1%. </li>
<li>On a year-over-year basis, retail sales eased from the upwardly revised 2.9% in July to 2.1% in August. </li>
<li>Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales grew by 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.4% growth in July and missing the expected 0.2% increase.</li>
<li>When excluding gasoline, motor vehicles, and parts, sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month in August, a slowdown from the 0.4% gain in July, and below the expected 0.3%</li>
<li>Among spending categories, the largest monthly gains were recorded in miscellaneous store retailers, up 1.7%, and nonstore retailers, up 1.4%. </li>
<li>Conversely, gasoline station, electronics and appliance stores experienced the steepest monthly decline, with sales dropping by 1.2% and 1.1% respectively.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar Strengthens, Treasury Yields Rise</h3>
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – strengthened following the retail sales report, driven by rising Treasury yields. 
Yields on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note surged by about 5 basis points to 3.59%, indicating falling odds for a larger Fed rate cut.
Stocks inched higher during Tuesday&#8217;s premarket trading, with futures on the S&amp;P 500 up 0.4% at 08:50 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.6% higher. 
On Monday, tech stocks closed in the red, with the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) falling 0.4%, dragged down by chipmakers as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>) tumbled 1.3%
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40895240/wall-street-could-head-higher-as-traders-look-forward-to-retail-sales-data-ahead-of-fed-decision">Wall Street Could Head Higher As Traders Look Forward To Retail Sales Data Ahead Of Fed Decision, Tech Stocks On The Mend: Strategist Flags This As Best-Case Scenario For Market This Week</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Retail Sales

Retail Sales Rise 0.1% In August, More Than Expected, Trimming Odds Of Larger Fed Rate Cut (CORRECTED)

On Monday, September 16, U.S. markets closed mixed as the S&amp;P 500 edged higher while the Nasdaq fell, weighed by declines in technology stocks.
Apple dropped on lower-than-expected iPhone 16 demand, impacting chipmakers Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron, pushing the semiconductor index down.
In economic data, The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 11.5 in September, the highest since April 2022, exceeding August&#8217;s -4.7 and forecasts of -3.9.
The majority of S&amp;P 500 sectors rose, led by communication, financials, energy, and materials, while information technology and consumer discretionary stocks declined.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.55% and closed at 41,622.08. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.13% at 5,633.09, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.52%, finishing the session at 17,592.13.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Tuesday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed the session lower by 1.03% at 36,204.50, led by losses in the Gas &amp; Water, Services, and Pharmaceutical Industry sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 ended the day higher by 0.24% at 8,140.90, led by gains in the IT, A-REITs and Industrials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was up 0.12% at 25,414.65, and the Nifty 500 was down by 0.01% at 23,968.25.</li>
<li>China markets closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session higher by 1.37% at 17,660.02.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.86%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX gained 0.81%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.79%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.77%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 05:45 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading lower by 0.42% at $68.72/bbl, and Brent was down 0.51% at $72.39/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices held steady after rising over $1 in the previous session. Traders balanced concerns over U.S. production disruptions from Hurricane Francine, falling U.S. crude stockpiles, and weaker demand in China. Focus also turned to the U.S. Federal Reserve&#8217;s policy meeting, with expectations of a rate cut potentially boosting oil demand.</li>
<li>Natural Gas was flat at $2.2371.</li>
<li>Gold was trading lower by 0.29% at $2,601.15, Silver fell 0.34% to $31.030, and Copper rose 0.16% to $4.2805.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 05:45 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.23%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.54%.
Forex at 05:45 AM ET
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.13% to 100.63, USD/JPY was up 0.03% at 140.64, and USD/AUD declined 0.16% to 1.4787.
Photo by Pavel Bobrovskiy via Shutterstock

Asia Markets Mixed, Europe Advances; Crude Oil Steady While Gold Holds Above $2,600 - Global Markets Today While US Slept

On Friday, September 13th, U.S. markets closed higher as rising bets on a potential 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve boosted optimism. Small-cap stocks, particularly sensitive to rate changes, outperformed as hopes for a larger cut increased.
Economic data released indicated that consumer prices grew by 2.5% year over year, while wholesale prices rose 0.2% month over month in August.
All S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by communication services, utilities, and industrial stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.72% and closed at 41,393.78. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.54% at 5,626.00, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.65%, finishing the session at 17,683.98.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>Japan markets closed for Respect for the Aged Day holiday.</li>
<li>On Monday, Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.27%, ending the session at 8,121.60, led by gains in the Telecoms Services, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.11%, closing at 25,383.75, while the Nifty 500 closed higher by 0.17%, at 23,968.20.</li>
<li>China markets closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session higher by 0.31% at 17,422.12.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.02%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX declined 0.19%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.06%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded lower by 0.11%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 0.40% at $68.02/bbl, and Brent was up 0.28% at $71.81/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rose amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut. Gains were capped by concerns over weak Chinese economic data and lingering demand worries despite supply disruptions from Hurricane Francine.</li>
<li>Natural Gas declined 0.48% to $2.294.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.04% at $2,612.00, Silver gained 0.70% to $31.297, and Copper slid 0.11% to $4.2310.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.16%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.13%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar index fell 0.41% to 100.70, the USD/JPY was down 0.42% to 140.22, and the USD/AUD declined 0.49% to 1.4840.</li>
<li>The dollar weakened as expectations grew for an oversized rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The yen surged to its highest level in over a year, while Treasury yields fell in anticipation of a potential 50-basis-point cut. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada are also in focus.</li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Gold Clocks New High While Dollar Weakens; Asia And Europe Markets Mixed - Global Markets Today While US Slept

The average American consumer is more optimistic than expected in September, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/consumers">data shows</a>. 
According to the University of Michigan&#8217;s <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/consumers">September Survey of Consumers</a>, the consumer sentiment index rose to its highest level in four months, surpassing economic estimates. 
This surge reflects improvements in both current conditions and future expectations, driven by lower inflation worries and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/09/40812986/inflation-slows-to-2-5-in-august-lowest-rate-since-february-2021-core-index-remai">more favorable price conditions.</a>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40852078/trump-vs-harris-latest-poll-hands-vice-president-5-point-lead-but-heres-why-vetran-pollster-nate-sil">Latest Poll Hands Vice President Harris 5-Point Lead Over Trump</a>
Key Highlights:
<ul>
<li>The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 67.9 August to 69 points in September, marking a 1.6% monthly surge and surpassing economist estimates – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of 68.</li>
<li>The sub-index for consumer expectations increased from 72.1 to 73 points, topping expectations of a decline to 71. </li>
<li>The sub-index for current conditions rose from 61.3 to 62.9, surpassing estimates of 61.5. </li>
<li>The year-ahead inflation expectations fell from 2.8% to 2.7%, the lowest in nearly four years, below forecasts of 2.8%. Long-term inflation expectations inched slightly higher from 3% to 3.1%. </li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Takeaways </h3>
&#8220;The gain was led by an improvement in buying conditions for durables, driven by more favorable prices as perceived by consumers. Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets,&#8221; said University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers Director&nbsp;Joanne Hsu.&nbsp;
Consumer sentiment is now roughly 40% higher than its June 2022 low, though caution remains widespread due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election, according to the expert.
However, there is contrasting sentiment between Democratic and Republican consumers as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/election-day">Election Day approaches</a> and Vice President Kamala Harris <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/politics/24/09/40805945/harris-vs-trump-vice-president-holds-3-point-lead-ahead-of-presidential-debate-but-swing-states-">widens the lead</a> over Ex-President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40761709/anthony-scaramucci-trump-will-lose-then-start-panicking-over-november-sentencing?itm_source=parsely-api">in preliminary polls</a>.
Hsu highlighted that &#8220;partisan gaps in sentiment inched up,&#8221; amid consumers&#8217; opposing views on the economic <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/startups/24/09/40855223/mark-cuban-praises-kamala-harris-support-for-business-is-her-new-tax-plan-a-game-changer">impact of her potential presidency</a>.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks extended their gains following the sentiment report. By 10:15 a.m. in New York, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) was up 0.4%, while the tech-focused Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) edged 0.2% higher.
Small caps led the rally, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) surging 2%. Blue chips, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>), rose 0.5%.
All 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors posted gains, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>) leading the way, up 1%, supported by strength in precious metals.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) slipping 0.4%. The dollar also dropped 0.9% against the Japanese yen, hitting levels last seen in late December 2023.
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/09/40842879/major-central-banks-slash-rates-in-sync-but-one-holdout-threatens-to-derail-bulls-momentum-carry-tra">Major Central Banks Slash Rates In Sync, But One Holdout Threatens To Derail Bulls&#8217; Momentum: &#8216;Carry Trade Is Still Unwinding&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Consumer Morale Hits 4-Month High, Inflation Expectations Ease: 'Partisan Gaps In Sentiment Inched Up'

On Thursday, Sept. 12, U.S. markets closed higher as expectations grew for a Federal Reserve rate cut, driven by inflation data signaling a likely 25-basis point reduction. Strong tech stock performance lifted the Nasdaq, while Moderna&#8217;s weak revenue forecast led the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s losses. The European Central Bank also announced a rate cut.
According to economic data, U.S. producer prices rose 0.2% in August, exceeding market expectations, while initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 to 230,000 for the week ending Sept. 7.
All 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors closed higher, led by the gain in communication services. Energy and consumer discretionary stocks also posted significant gains.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.58% and closed at 41,096.77. The S&amp;P 500 ended the day higher by 0.75% at 5,595.76, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.00%, finishing the session at 17,569.68.
Asian Markets Today
<ul>
<li>On Friday, Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 closed lower by 0.78% at 36,568.00, led by losses in the Marine Transport, Food and Transportation Equipment sectors.</li>
<li>Australia&#8217;s S&amp;P/ASX 200 gained 0.30%, ending the session at 8,099.90, led by gains in the Gold, Metals &amp; Mining and Materials sectors.</li>
<li>India&#8217;s Nifty 50 was down 0.10% at 25,363.55and Nifty 500 was higher by 0.17% at 23,948.05.</li>
<li>China&#8217;s Shanghai Composite was down 0.48%, ending the session at 2,704.09, and the Shenzhen CSI fell 0.42%, closing at 3,159.25.</li>
<li>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng ended the session higher by 0.75% at 17,369.09.</li>
</ul>
Eurozone at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The European STOXX 50 index gained 0.30%.</li>
<li>Germany&#8217;s DAX rose 0.49%.</li>
<li>France&#8217;s CAC was up 0.34%.</li>
<li>U.K.&#8217;s FTSE 100 index traded higher by 0.12%.</li>
</ul>
Commodities at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>Crude Oil WTI was trading higher by 1.13% at $69.75/bbl, and Brent was up 0.99% at $72.66/bbl.</li>
<li>Oil prices rallied on Friday, driven by output disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Francine. A weaker U.S. dollar and supply issues also supported the gains.</li>
<li>Natural Gas rose 1.02% to $2.381.</li>
<li>Gold was trading higher by 0.75% at $2,599.90, Silver gained 1.29% to $30.495, and Copper gained 0.56% to $4.2185.</li>
<li>Gold hit a record high, driven by shifting expectations for a larger Federal Reserve rate cut.</li>
</ul>
US Futures at 06:00 AM ET
Dow futures were up 0.14%, S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 0.08%.
Forex at 06:00 AM ET
<ul>
<li>The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.41% to 100.95, USD/JPY was down 0.98% at 140.40, and USD/AUD declined 0.07% to 1.4863.</li>
<li>The dollar dropped to its lowest level this year against the yen amid rising expectations for a larger Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar index also fell to a one-week low as hawkish comments from Bank of Japan officials supported the yen.</li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Crude Gains On Supply Disruptions, Gold Hits Record High And Dollar Hits One Week Low - Global Markets Today While US Slept

A broadly softer-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report triggered market shifts on Thursday, driving down the value of the dollar and Treasury yields while boosting gold prices to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/gold">a new all-time high. </a>
Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures ticked upward, signaling a potential fourth consecutive session of gains for U.S. stocks.
Economic data released Thursday showed the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand slowing to 1.7% year-over-year in August, below market expectations of 1.8% and down from July's downwardly revised 2.1%. On a monthly basis, PPI increased by 0.2%, surpassing the forecasted 0.1% and improving from the revised flat reading for July.
Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained stable at 2.4% year-over-year, slightly underperforming the expected 2.5%. On a month-to-month basis, core PPI rebounded with a 0.3% rise, up from the previous month's 0.2% decline and surpassing expectations of a 0.2% increase.
In parallel, weekly initial jobless claims came in at 230,000, in line with market forecasts, signaling stable labor market conditions.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points, marking the second reduction since June. The ECB justified the move as part of its efforts to moderate monetary policy. 
The ECB kept its inflation outlook steady but revised its growth forecasts downward. The central bank emphasized a data-dependent approach for future decisions, with no commitment to further rate cuts.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Market reactions to the U.S. data were relatively muted. Rate-cut expectations for the Federal Reserve's meeting next week remained stable, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut holding firm at 85%. 
<ul>
<li>U.S. Treasury yields softened, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 0.2% as yields slightly decreased.</li>
<li>The U.S. dollar, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), slipped 0.1%. </li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), traded 0.2% higher in the premarket, as of 9:05 a.m. ET.</li>
<li>Tech stocks, followed by the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), were 0.1% higher.</li>
<li>Small caps, as tracked by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>), rose 0.4%.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) was the top-performing S&amp;P 500 sector in the premarket, up 0.6%.</li>
<li>Gold prices, monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose by 1.1% to 2,538 per ounce.</li>
<li>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rose 1.3%.</li>
</ul>
Read now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40794070/exclusive-lazard-small-cap-expert-predicts-30-50-russell-2000-rally-on-the-back-of-">EXCLUSIVE: Lazard Small-Cap Expert Predicts 30%-50% Russell 2000 Rally On The Back Of Lower Interest Rates (UPDATED)</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

XLRE

Gold Reaches Record High As Dollar Weakens On Soft Producer Inflation Data; Wall Street Eyes Fourth Day Of Gains

Gold declined with the Dollar rally, but silver rode the equity rally and gained some ground.

Stocks And Precious Metal Charts - Risk Assets Rallied

The S&P 500 moved higher today to finish out the week basically unchanged.

Risk Is Building With Markets Trapped In A Range

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) slipped further on Friday, driven lower by a broad-market extension of recent Greenback bidding that sent the US Dollar higher across the board after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures widely outran expectations.

Canadian Dollar Extends Losses After BumperNFP Print

The Australian Dollar dropped during the North American session after September's jobs report in the United States (US), suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) at the November meeting.

Aussie Dollar Slips On Robust US Data, Eyes On Next Week's US Inflation

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Friday, October 4.

Financial Markets Report For Friday, Oct 4

Markets Weekly Outlook - Jobs Report May Lead To Cautious Fed, U.S. CPI Next

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in various SPDR-ETF markets for the trading day that ended, Friday, October 4.

SPDR ETF Report For Friday, Oct 4

This video will show you what is expected on the Bitcoin market based on the technical analysis.

BTC/Bitcoin Price Analysis & Forecast - Saturday, Oct 5

Today you will see EURUSD price prediction based on the technical analysis. What is the support and resistance on the daily time frame for EURUSD?

EURUSD Analysis, Price Prediction & Forecast - Saturday, Oct 5

In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the day's trading in the gold and other relevant metal markets.

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