VSE (NASDAQ:VSEC) 株価情報

VSE Corp is a diversified aftermarket products and services company providing repair services, parts distribution, logistics, supply chain management, and consulting services for land, sea, and air transportation assets to commercial and government markets. Its operations include supply chain management solutions, parts supply and distribution, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services for vehicle fleet, aviation, maritime and other customers. Its reportable segments are; Aviation and Fleet. The majority of the revenue for the company is generated from the Aviation segment which is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for components and engine accessories supporting commercial, business, and general aviation operators.

VSE Corp

VSE's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NYSE">VSEC</a>) short percent of float has fallen 13.83% since its last report. The company recently reported that it has 2.12 million shares sold short, which is 11.96% of all regular shares that are available for trading. Based on its trading volume, it would take traders 9.02 days to cover their short positions on average.
<h3>Why Short Interest Matters</h3>
Short interest is the number of shares that have been sold short but have not yet been covered or closed out. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-short-a-stock?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=short-interest&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Short selling</a> is when a trader sells shares of a company they do not own, with the hope that the price will fall. Traders make money from short selling if the price of the stock falls and they lose if it rises.
Short interest is important to track because it can act as an indicator of market sentiment towards a particular stock. An increase in short interest can signal that investors have become more bearish, while a decrease in short interest can signal they have become more bullish.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/short-interest?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=short-interest&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">List of the most shorted stocks</a>
<h3>VSE Short Interest Graph (3 Months)</h3>
<img src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/1744981229_0.png" alt="short_fig" />
As you can see from the chart above the percentage of shares that are sold short for VSE has declined since its last report. This does not mean that the stock is going to rise in the near-term but traders should be aware that less shares are being shorted.
<h3>Comparing VSE's Short Interest Against Its Peers</h3>
Peer comparison is a popular technique amongst analysts and investors for gauging how well a company is performing. A company's peer is another company that has similar characteristics to it, such as industry, size, age, and financial structure. You can find a company's peer group by reading its 10-K, proxy filing, or by doing your own similarity analysis.
According to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/">Benzinga Pro</a>, VSE's peer group average for short interest as a percentage of float is 5.06%, which means the company has more short interest than most of its peers.
Did you know that increasing short interest can actually be bullish for a stock? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-make-money-on-a-short-squeeze?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=short-interest&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">This post by Benzinga Money explains how you can profit from it.</a>
This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and was reviewed by an editor.

Short Sellers

Short Ideas

Trading Ideas

VSEC

Peering Into VSE's Recent Short Interest

Truist Securities analyst Michael Ciarmoli maintains VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $134 to $130.

News

Price Target

Analyst Ratings

Truist Securities Maintains Buy on VSE, Lowers Price Target to $130

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Shares of companies within the broader industrial sector are trading lower amid overall market weakness after Fed Chair Powell made remarks at the Economic Club. Stocks across sectors may also be weighed down on trade tension fears after after the United States informed NVIDIA that it may require a license to export chips to China.

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Shares of companies within the broader industrial sector are trading lower as stocks pull back after surging Wednesday following President Trump's tariff pause announcement.

Truist Securities analyst Michael Ciarmoli maintains VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $129 to $134.

Truist Securities Maintains Buy on VSE, Raises Price Target to $134

These eight mid-cap stocks were the best performers in the last week. Are they in your portfolio?
<ol>
<li>Root, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ROOT#NASDAQ">ROOT</a>) stock gained 34.89% after the company reported <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43993814" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">better-than-expected Q4</a> financial results. Wells Fargo raised the price forecast on the stock <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ROOT/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">from $80 to $97</a>.</li>
<li>Bridge Investment Group Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRDG#NYSE">BRDG</a>) shares jumped 32.45% after the company entered a deal to be acquired by Apollo Global Management, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APO#NYSE">APO</a>) in an all-stock <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43917364" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">transaction valued at around $1.5 billion</a>. Analysts revised the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/brdg/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">price forecast on the stock</a>.</li>
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<li>Medical Properties Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MPW#NYSE">MPW</a>) shares increased 21.15% after the company reported better-<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44004172" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">than-expected financial results</a>.</li>
<li>ZoomInfo Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZI#NASDAQ">ZI</a>) stock escalated 20.83% after the company reported 2024 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43990629" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">fiscal-year fourth-quarter earnings</a>. Scotiabank analyst Allan Verkhovski maintained a Sector Perform rating and raised the price <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/zi/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">forecast from $10.3 to $11</a>.</li>
<li>Lantheus Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LNTH#NASDAQ">LNTH</a>) stock rose 19.93% after it reported quarterly adjusted <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43968835" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EPS and sales above estimates</a>. Truist Securities analyst Richard Newitter maintained a Buy rating and raised the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/lnth/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">price forecast from $120 to $127</a>.</li>
<li>Alignment Healthcare, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALHC#NASDAQ">ALHC</a>) stock gained 19.04% after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 financial results and issued an FY25 outlook. Multiple analyst firms raised their respective <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ALHC/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">price forecasts on the stock</a>.</li>
<li>VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) stock jumped 18.49%  after the company reported better-than-<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43990909" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">expected fourth-quarter results</a>.</li>
</ol>
Photo via Shutterstock
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/44067124/xpeng-li-auto-and-anheuser-busch-inbev-are-among-top-11-large-cap-gainers-last-week-feb-24-feb-28-are-the-others-in-your-portfolio" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Xpeng, Li Auto And Nutanix Are Among Top 12 Large-Cap Gainers Last Week (Feb 24-Feb 28): Are The Others In Your Portfolio?</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/25/03/44067248/tesla-palantir-and-microstrategy-are-among-top-12-large-cap-losers-last-week-feb-24-feb-28-are-the-others-in-your-portfolio" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Tesla, Palantir And MicroStrategy Are Among Top 12 Large-Cap Losers Last Week (Feb 24-Feb 28): Are The Others In Your Portfolio?</a></li>
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Root And ZoomInfo Are Among Top 8 Mid-Cap Gainers Last Week (Feb 24-Feb 28): Are The Others In Your Portfolio?

VSE Corporation shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 financial results.

Management

VSE Appointed Ben Thomas As COO

Guidance

VSE Corporation Sees 2025 Aviation Segment Growth 35-40%, Aviation segment Adj. EBITDA Margin 15.5-16.5% Est.

VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) reported quarterly earnings of $0.90 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $0.72 by 25 percent. This is a 5.88 percent increase over earnings of $0.85 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $299.000 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $287.594 million by 3.97 percent. This is a 27.06 percent increase over sales of $235.325 million the same period last year.

Earnings

Earnings Beats

VSE Q4 2024 Adj. EPS $0.90 Beats $0.72 Estimate, Sales $299.000M Beat $287.594M Estimate

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Core Scientific, Inc. - Class A Common Stock

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GSX Techedu Inc. American Depositary Shares

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Earnings Scheduled For February 26, 2025

VSE Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) shares rose on Tuesday following the announcement of a definitive agreement to sell its Fleet business segment, Wheeler Fleet Solutions, to One Equity Partners <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43776910" rel="noreferrer noopener">for up to $230 million.</a>
Wheeler Fleet Solutions is a parts distributor and engineering solutions provider servicing the medium and heavy-duty fleet market.
Wheeler Fleet Solutions&nbsp;employs approximately 385 people across three primary distribution centers in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43778129" rel="noreferrer noopener">Pennsylvania, Mississippi and Texas.</a>
The transaction is part of VSE&#8217;s strategic transformation, aimed at simplifying the business and focusing on its core business — aviation aftermarket services, according to a press release.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43789704/kim-kardashians-skims-joins-forces-with-nike-to-redefine-fitness-fashion-stock-gains" rel="noreferrer noopener">Kim Kardashian&#8217;s SKIMS Joins Forces With Nike For Fitness Fashion, Stock Gains</a>
John Cuomo, President and CEO of VSE, expressed that the divestiture is the final step in the company&#8217;s portfolio transformation, which will enhance its global leadership position in the aviation aftermarket parts and services market.
The sale includes a $140 million cash payment at closing, a $25 million seller note, and up to $65 million in contingent earnout consideration.
The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.
According to&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://pro.benzinga.com/?gspk=YWRhbWVja2VydDUzMzY&amp;gsxid=zBMR4PKmcgBw" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>, VSEC stock has gained over 41% in the past year. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;iShares Microcap ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWC#NYSE">IWC</a>).
Price Action: VSEC shares are trading higher by 1.99% to $99.22 at last check Tuesday.
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</ul>
Image sourced from Shutterstock.

Asset Sales

Markets

General

What's Going On With VSE Corp Stock Today?

VSE Corporation To Sell Fleet Segment To One Equity Partners For Up To $230M

Truist Securities analyst Michael Ciarmoli maintains VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $133 to $129.

Truist Securities Maintains Buy on VSE, Lowers Price Target to $129

Ratings for VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) were provided by 7 analysts in the past three months, showcasing a mix of bullish and bearish perspectives.
The following table summarizes their recent ratings, shedding light on the changing sentiments within the past 30 days and comparing them to the preceding months.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th align="right">Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Indifferent</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bearish</th>
<th align="right">Bearish</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Total Ratings</td>
<td align="right">4</td>
<td align="right">3</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Last 30D</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1M Ago</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2M Ago</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3M Ago</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Analysts provide deeper insights through their assessments of 12-month price targets, revealing an average target of $124.29, a high estimate of $135.00, and a low estimate of $110.00. Observing a 11.97% increase, the current average has risen from the previous average price target of $111.00. 
<img src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2024/1733504458_0.png" alt="price target chart" />
<h2>Diving into Analyst Ratings: An In-Depth Exploration</h2>
The analysis of recent analyst actions sheds light on the perception of VSE by financial experts. The following summary presents key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Analyst</th>
<th>Analyst Firm</th>
<th>Action Taken</th>
<th>Rating</th>
<th>Current Price Target</th>
<th>Prior Price Target</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Ken Herbert</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Outperform</td>
<td>$135.00</td>
<td>$125.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeff Van Sinderen</td>
<td>B. Riley Securities</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$132.00</td>
<td>$120.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ken Herbert</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Outperform</td>
<td>$125.00</td>
<td>$120.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michael Ciarmoli</td>
<td>Truist Securities</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$133.00</td>
<td>$115.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ken Herbert</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Outperform</td>
<td>$120.00</td>
<td>$100.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Lavina Quadros</td>
<td>Jefferies</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$110.00</td>
<td>$100.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Michael Ciarmoli</td>
<td>Truist Securities</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$115.00</td>
<td>$97.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Key Insights:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Action Taken: Analysts respond to changes in market conditions and company performance, frequently updating their recommendations. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise' or 'Lower' their stance, it reflects their reaction to recent developments related to VSE. This information offers a snapshot of how analysts perceive the current state of the company.</li>
<li>Rating: Providing a comprehensive analysis, analysts offer qualitative assessments, ranging from 'Outperform' to 'Underperform'. These ratings reflect expectations for the relative performance of VSE compared to the broader market.</li>
<li>Price Targets: Analysts navigate through adjustments in price targets, providing estimates for VSE's future value. Comparing current and prior targets offers insights into analysts' evolving expectations.</li>
</ul>
Capture valuable insights into VSE's market standing by understanding these analyst evaluations alongside pertinent financial indicators. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with our Ratings Table.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/VSEC/analyst-ratings?utm_source=Benzinga Insights">Stay up to date on VSE analyst ratings.</a>
<h2>About VSE</h2>
VSE Corp is a diversified aftermarket products and services company providing repair services, parts distribution, logistics, supply chain management and consulting services for land, sea and air transportation assets to commercial and government markets. Its operations include supply chain management solutions, parts supply and distribution, and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for vehicle fleet, aviation, maritime and other customers. Its reportable segments are; Aviation and Fleet. Majority of the revenue for the company is generated from the Aviation segment which is a provider of aftermarket parts distribution and MRO services for components and engine accessories supporting commercial, business and general aviation operators.
<h3>Breaking Down VSE's Financial Performance</h3>
Market Capitalization Analysis: Positioned below industry benchmarks, the company's market capitalization faces constraints in size. This could be influenced by factors such as growth expectations or operational capacity.
Revenue Growth: VSE displayed positive results in 3 months. As of 30 September, 2024, the company achieved a solid revenue growth rate of approximately 18.27%. This indicates a notable increase in the company's top-line earnings. In comparison to its industry peers, the company stands out with a growth rate higher than the average among peers in the Industrials sector.
Net Margin: VSE's net margin is below industry standards, pointing towards difficulties in achieving strong profitability. With a net margin of 4.26%, the company may encounter challenges in effective cost control.
Return on Equity (ROE): The company's ROE is below industry benchmarks, signaling potential difficulties in efficiently using equity capital. With an ROE of 1.48%, the company may need to address challenges in generating satisfactory returns for shareholders.
Return on Assets (ROA): VSE's ROA lags behind industry averages, suggesting challenges in maximizing returns from its assets. With an ROA of 0.79%, the company may face hurdles in achieving optimal financial performance.
Debt Management: With a below-average debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61, VSE adopts a prudent financial strategy, indicating a balanced approach to debt management.
<h2>The Basics of Analyst Ratings</h2>
Analyst ratings serve as essential indicators of stock performance, provided by experts in banking and financial systems. These specialists diligently analyze company financial statements, participate in conference calls, and engage with insiders to generate quarterly ratings for individual stocks.
Beyond their standard evaluations, some analysts contribute predictions for metrics like growth estimates, earnings, and revenue, furnishing investors with additional guidance. Users of analyst ratings should be mindful that this specialized advice is shaped by human perspectives and may be subject to variability.
Which Stocks Are Analysts Recommending Now?
Benzinga Edge gives you instant access to all major analyst upgrades, downgrades, and price targets. Sort by accuracy, upside potential, and more. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-checkout/?t=be8be9arja3be22bz21&amp;utm_source=benzinga-insights">Click here to stay ahead of the market</a>.
This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

The Analyst Verdict: VSE In The Eyes Of 7 Experts

RBC Capital analyst Ken Herbert maintains VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $125 to $135.

RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on VSE, Raises Price Target to $135

VSE plans to add an additional 110 new employees over the next five years, supporting the existing base of approximately 250 South Florida based employees.&nbsp;
The Company also intends to invest approximately $3.5 million in tenant improvements, including new offices, additional MRO capabilities, a training and conference center, and renovations to existing spaces.

VSE Plans Relocation Of Its Corporate Headquarters To Miramar, Florida

B. Riley Securities analyst Jeff Van Sinderen maintains VSE (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $120 to $132.

B. Riley Securities Maintains Buy on VSE, Raises Price Target to $132

A Trump presidency<a href="https://europeancapitalinsights.substack.com/p/europe-frets-about-recession-after?r=3nmatg"> has raised concern in Europe that a new round</a> of tariffs under his <a href="https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/11/04/how-much-could-trumps-tariffs-damage-europes-economy">administration will cause a economic recession</a> in Europe.
A trade war during Trump's four-year term would also increase the probability of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting rates faster to spur growth. Analysts issued pessimistic outlooks for European economic growth after Trump won the election.
On election day, the US dollar rallied sharply, sending the euro to a four-month low and boosting Bitcoin by 10% to a record high. 
European stocks exposed to the US have already shown their vulnerability. A Barclays basket of 28 <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/europe-trump-win-outlook-trade-war-tariff-crypto-djt-election-2024-10">European stocks sensitive to US tariffs</a> has underperformed the broader STOXX600 index by 15% this year.
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXct8vnUjY-sPthKAo54TyYzmMYbFqSL4UEAYKQ92gAtCRQgUelVyEGMtqrSv5-U9J6NvK7t574p40MtP_A5qNqhIcmcpalKh6Mo9wsCHR4vajc8gXwstW6pEO71UptWP9JJCG9DNX2_i2uFfEmKYzcnqF5rE03Y8J96wUCGAoSoj95B14a5yVE?key=heoBp3pffbhAPsc75vkVjtPK" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
European stocks vulnerable to Trump tariffs, Source: Barclays Equity Research&nbsp;
&#8220;Tariff concerns have been a drag on EU equities&#8217; relative performance year-to-date,&#8221; Barclays analysts led by Emmanuel Cau wrote in a note on October 23. A basket of European stocks at risk of Trump tariffs declined compared to those geared toward Democrat policies.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfLgvwadHYOazAM9Zi-a21uG9w7SBpC9fl_QTuUaoa3Zmta_kqPhfkbiEU1xgFnSvUYlS6ptCm16qeL0eKpnr4tl4Pj77Qz28PN6Gn4NPCI-aS736Rq-lP9TRf94MPI5aXAeKN_myLiVpshQNhbRPYpEacxegs_pBRx9iSN?key=heoBp3pffbhAPsc75vkVjtPK" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
European stocks sensitive to Trump fall, Source: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/european-stock-futures-drop-over-tariff-worries-as-trump-leads?srnd=phx-fixed-income">Bloomberg</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump Presidency Could Impact Europe's GDP</h3>
The European Union (EU) will need to confront the reality of a much different relationship with its largest trading partner from January 20. Previous <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/10/24/would-donald-trumps-trade-tariffs-hurt-europe">tariffs on 6.4 billion in EU steel and aluminum</a>, alongside threats on automotive imports, have shown how US protectionism can reverberate through European economies.&nbsp;
Trump&#8217;s potential trade policies in 2025, including a proposed 10% to 20% <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c0f1d1b9-8348-4b7d-8ab7-186fcf2ebbd1">tariff on European goods</a>, pose a substantial threat to European growth. Following Trump&#8217;s win, Goldman Sachs <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/783a573c-7ff3-461c-86f5-f194a89e3926">downgraded Europe's growth</a> for 2025 from 1.1% to 0.8%, citing limited European auto exports.
The German economic institute IW believes the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/trump-presidency-could-deal-heavy-blow-germanys-flagging-economy-2024-10-24/">Eurozone&#8217;s GDP could decline by 1.5%</a> in 2027 and 2028. Goldman Sachs expects a 1% reduction if a 10% universal tariff is implemented instead.
Historically, Trump&#8217;s tariffs have hampered European growth due to steep declines in exports, a trend that could repeat. Major exports to the US accounted for ~90% of all European transatlantic exports in 2023 to €502.3 billion, European Commission (EC) data showed.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcvDK80Z1hUJyXyvBBoAMMZeFNr-xIVF1HOlXtj5f6tyZXetVpHGPs9afu43LAEz62sGA2rBTRYFExGxZIpot6NEMoR9FSz8MZpQOWeaegFSiq-af0hbjlqRKJQcifBBKtRYdpvm-brz9WvSj6543imX5QpjbXn9iE8MSyrl2c9XKSTRVJvkWo?key=heoBp3pffbhAPsc75vkVjtPK" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
EU trade with the US by product, Source: European Commission
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump Presidency Could Cause Eurozone GDP Loos</h3>
The blow to the Eurozone from a potential 1.5% GDP reduction could translate to a €260 billion loss on an estimated GDP of €17.4 trillion for 2024. This is over half the entire transatlantic exports registered in 2023.
"The direct effects and the indirect effects and the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/ecb-s-guindos-warns-of-huge-implications-of-trump-tariff-plans">deviations of commerce will be huge</a>, ECB Vice-President and French central bank head Francois Villeroy said on Wednesday.
Even the lower end of the proposed tariffs would compel ECB policymakers to cut rates more aggressively in 2025 if Trump implements his economic policies. Sven Jari Stehn of Goldman Sachs said in a note on Wednesday that he expects the ECB to cut an additional quarter-point in July.
&#8220;The American election must sound like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/ecbs-villeroy-trump-election-means-more-risks-world-economy-2024-11-06/">a wakeup call for Europe</a>,&#8221; Villeroy said.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Germany At Greater Risk From Trump Presidency</h3>
Nations with large trade surpluses with the US face significant risks from policies that have strained transatlantic economic relationships in the past.&nbsp;
&#8220;Half of Germany&#8217;s growth always comes from exports and if you look at what&#8217;s going on in the world, you have to say that this pillar is under attack,&#8221; Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in October.&nbsp;
Germany exported over €157.7 billion of goods to the US in 2023. However, exports to the US contracted by 0.3% amid slowing demand and geopolitical escalation.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcunKZmSO2PXjTxoH5i3tumZTnE67LZaCy7n4plCOQCM-KaRa1NuHKfI4lwpeo7MwLbb0Aqn3RC9uLnOkJStOR3w4q2RuS55tghIU6m7QH1DLzfjJN5JdP3W4yQjJtarOqVnK06z5h7keeKLRkVAAEVOWJuwmL_gOl6HSiH65l3dYNqP9_E8Tc?key=heoBp3pffbhAPsc75vkVjtPK" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
Germany Exports to the US, 2012-2023, Source: Tradingeconomics
Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis Corporate &amp; Investment Banking Germany, says a 10% tariff increase could reduce Germany&#8217;s GDP by approximately 0.5%. A study by the Hans Boeckler Foundation macroeconomic institute suggests a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/trump-presidency-could-deal-heavy-blow-germanys-flagging-economy-2024-10-24/">1% GDP erosion by 2026 if Trump implemented a 20% tarif</a>f.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Germany Is Only G7 Nation Without Growth For Two Years</h3>
Germany remains the only G7 nation that has <a href="https://www.euronews.com/business/2023/07/30/germany-expected-to-be-only-major-economy-not-to-grow-this-year">failed to grow for two years</a> due to higher energy prices, borrowing costs, and a slow rebound in China. Europe&#8217;s largest economy would suffer if its largest trading partner reduced output and imposed tariffs on China.
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfbVgaykBooXaV2_V2tFat4uPtjSxEtqJGbs1aXsckrchdNTyahnrivFRGcxzAeLoaUgFZv01KIV-g8Yk9HsuFFKgTBaSOSnOMknWvtj2G33RbD160IYtL7hnpn4l8SEaHdqM7rlcRtquZTqdr_AIIQEqM4qaXq4XQsubxXGLI35Dt86aCL_ds?key=heoBp3pffbhAPsc75vkVjtPK" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
German Exports to China, 2020-2024, Source: <a href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/germany/trade-statistics-by-country/exports-china">CEIC</a>
&#8220;Germany isn&#8217;t going to be bailed out by a restoration of growth in China," Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at Bruegel and the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told Reuters.
An Ifo study found that German exports to China and the US could fall by 9.6% and 14.9% in a full-scale trade war scenario in which the US imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Pharmaceutical and car exports would be hit the hardest, down 35% and 32%, the Ifo said.
Trump's tariffs would substantially trim European exports to the US, possibly creating a cycle of retaliation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Swift Retaliatory Action From Europe</h3>
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, believes that Trump's presidency would initiate a new trade war with Europe but sounded the alarm of swift retaliation.&nbsp;
"The market is <a href="https://www.financialmirror.com/2024/10/29/trump-trade-war-with-europe-would-hurt-us-stocks/">underestimating the risk of swift European retaliation</a> and the pressure this could place on key American stocks," he said.
Retaliatory measures could hit US earnings in the S&amp;P 500 by 1.5% next year. However, European stocks exposed to US tariffs could plunge as much as 7%, according to Barclays.&nbsp;
&#8220;In the event of a full-blown trade war, we could see up to a high single-digit drag on EPS growth with Germany," Barclays' head of European equity strategy, Emmanuel Cau, said. However, Goldman Sachs believes that a 1% GDP loss, if transported, would erase EPS growth for 2025.
Certain European sectors could still gain from a Trump presidency.&nbsp;
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Defense Will Benefit From Trump Presidency&nbsp;</h3>
In addition to the energy sector, defense companies could see increased demand from European nations under a Trump Presidency. He is likely to push them to increase their NATO defense spending.&nbsp;
Earlier in 2024, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/14/nato-chief-rebukes-donald-trump-and-announces-record-defence-spending">he threatened to "not protect"</a> any alliance members that failed to ramp up their defense spending to the 2% GDP target.&nbsp;
Following the warning, NATO claimed that more than 18 members would <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/nato-says-18-members-will-reach-2-spending-target-this-year/">surpass the 2% target </a>this year. The number of allies meeting or exceeding the target soared to 23 this year, prompting <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2024/10/trump-wants-nato-to-hit-3-percent-gdp-on-defense-the-us-could-fall-short/">Trump to raise the bar to 3% of GDP</a>.&nbsp;
<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeZHW4VZpdEt-DWO4ekjR7UlrTXpLl0U3oYjPArwQ23JgwiOyv-MQt9EkTOATSvEu0hHQ9HLnkkQbdG2dmLCJQVZm42BqZNmLcIE_HEdaNGpHnBJJuZWpF2fF_xp61i66oBsWk44hSOdsCcbrEs91RBX3N4R3C_fDi1DQetJh3FM3SV4dgExw?key=heoBp3pffbhAPsc75vkVjtPK" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
NATO members&#8217; defense expenditure as a share of GDP, 2024e, Source: <a href="https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/6/pdf/240617-def-exp-2024-en.pdf">NATO</a>
After taking office, Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of NATO, said, &#8220;thanks to Trump&#8221; NATO increased defense spending. In Europe, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/11/how-much-does-each-nato-country-spend-in-2024">Poland doubled the defense spending target</a> at 4.12% and Estonia by 3.43%, followed by Latvia and Greece.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">European Stocks For Trump Presidency</h3>
Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Greece have been increasing their defense spending and primarily source military equipment from a combination of US and European defense contractors.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2024/9/24/politics-of-war-color-polands-record-defense-spending#:~:text=Poland's%20recent%20procurement%20deals%20with,loan%20agreement%20announced%20in%20July.">Poland agreed to buy 32 F-35 jets, Apache helicopters and Abrams tanks</a> made by American companies Lockheed Martin (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>)  and Boeing (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) and <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/03/05/saab-wins-polish-mega-order-for-carl-gustaf-recoilless-rifles/">signed a contract with Saab </a>(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAABF#OTC">SAABF</a>) earlier in the year to supply ammunition, training equipment, and recoilless rifles. It also awaits delivery of Raytehon's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>) LTAMDS radars for its Patriot systems. 
Estonia has<a href="https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/06/13/estonias-global-arms-buying-spree-seeks-drastic-combat-gains/"> existing ties</a> with Germany&#8217;s Rheinmetall (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RNMBY#OTC">RNMBY</a>), <a href="https://eng.lsm.lv/article/society/defense/04.07.2024-latvia-currently-in-natos-top-four-on-defense-spending.a560311/">Latvia with LMT</a> and <a href="https://www.airforce-technology.com/news/greece-orders-additional-rafale-jets/">Greece with French manufacturer</a> Dassault Aviation (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DUAVF#OTC">DUAVF</a>), along with LMT, <a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/news/us-approves-sale-of-mmsc-ships-greece/?cf-view">BAE Systems </a>(OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAESY#OTC">BAESY</a>)<a href="https://www.naval-technology.com/news/us-approves-sale-of-mmsc-ships-greece/?cf-view"> and repair leader VSE </a>(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VSEC#NASDAQ">VSEC</a>).
Disclaimer:
Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. European Capital Insights is not responsible for any financial decisions made based on the contents of this article. Readers may use this article for information and educational purposes only.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#8217;s reporting and has not been edited for content&nbsp;or&nbsp;accuracy.

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